证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20260223 春节对全年消费有何指示意义？ 2026 年 02 月 23 日 相关研究 《春节海外市场回顾：IEEPA 违法后 特朗普的 Plan B 》 2026-02-22 《美国 1 月 CPI：没那么"弱"—— 2026 年 1 月美国 CPI 数据点评》 2026-02-14 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：今年春节消费有三个特点，一是消费开局强劲，今年春节假 期前 4 天，全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额同比增长 8.6%，高于 去年的 4.1%（去年整个春节假期）。二是春节服务消费内部分化，观影 回落、出行强劲。三是返乡消费增长强劲。春节对全年消费有何指示意 义？我们 ...

记者日前从省商务厅获悉：2025年，陕西聚力打好提振消费硬仗取得显著成绩，加力扩围实施消费 品以旧换新成效明显、商旅文体健融合释放服务消费潜力、试点示范带动作用持续放大、城乡商贸流通 能级不断提升。 为加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新，省商务厅制定工作方案和分领域实施细则，发挥14个部门工作协 调机制作用，省市联动开展政策设计、品类拓展、流程优化、服务提升、金融赋能等工作，安排中央、 省级、市级补贴资金76.86亿元，带动消费682.65亿元，参与企业16156家，惠及消费者超820万人次，推 动新能源汽车、通信器材、家用电器同比分别增长30.6%、40.9%和27.1%。西安政策解读服务、汉中资 金风险防控2项经验入选商务部典型案例。 2025年，省商务厅联合发展改革、财政、教育、民政、文旅、市场监管、体育、统计等部门制定促 进服务消费高质量发展若干措施等18项政策，会同文旅、体育等部门组织知味陕西等服务消费季活动 167场。"过去一年，跟着唐诗游长安蔚然成风，微短剧产业从'当红'走向'长红'，宝鸡推动'票根+'多业 态融合发展，咸阳打造国际面食之都，铜川推出'观赛+滑雪+康养+文创'套餐，延安美食联动红色研 学 ...

来源：宏观fans哲 芦哲 S0600524110003 占烁 S0600524120005 核心观点 核心观点：今年春节消费有三个特点，一是消费开局强劲，今年春节假期前4天，全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额同比增长8.6%，高于去年的4.1% （去年整个春节假期）。二是春节服务消费内部分化，观影回落、出行强劲。三是返乡消费增长强劲。春节对全年消费有何指示意义？我们认为可能有以 下三方面信号：一是我们预计开年消费将温和复苏，1-2月社零同比增速可能介于去年上半年（5%）和下半年（2.5%）之间，相比去年底1%左右的增速 明显回升。二是从春节实践来看，全年消费可能有更多政策呵护，政策重心从"以旧换新"补贴转向其他方面，如消费贷贴息、有奖发票、支持服务消费、 鼓励优质供给等。三是2026年商品消费可能弱于去年，服务消费成为主要支撑。 春运：历史最多出行人次，节后出行强于节前。截至正月初五，今年春运前20天全国跨区域人员流动达到50.8亿次，创下历史最高水平，较去年同期增长 5.5%。从交通部口径的跨区域人员流动量来看，今年节前15天的日均流量为2.3亿人次，比去年同期高3.2%；而节后5天为3.2亿人次，比去年同 ...

服务消费与民生福祉紧密相关，是推动经济高质量发展的重要抓手，也是满足人民群众美好生活需要的 重要内容。2020年至2025年，我国居民人均服务性消费支出年均增长8.5%，展现出强大的增长动能。 规模扩大的同时，消费者的关注点正在从"有没有"向"好不好"转变，对个性化、多样化、品质化服务消 费产品的需求日益增强。 近日，《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》（以下简称《工作方案》）印发，对进一步优化和扩大 服务供给、培育服务消费新增长点、促进服务消费提质惠民作出系统部署。商务部副部长鄢东表示， 《工作方案》旨在通过扩大优质服务供给，增强服务消费供需适配，提升人民群众的获得感和幸福感。 网络视听开辟空间 当前，我国网络视听用户规模超10亿人。广电总局网络视听节目管理司司长王小亮表示，网络视听已经 深度融入经济社会和人们的生活，成为激活消费、服务民生的重要领域。 "网络视听凭借极强的沉浸感和互动性，能够将用户庞大的'内容注意力'高效转化为'消费行动力'，并不 断延伸产业链条，开辟新的服务消费空间。"王小亮表示，透过一部手机、一块屏幕，背后是规模庞 大、活力充沛的服务消费新市场。网络视听服务消费潜力巨大、前景广阔。《工 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the vibrant consumer landscape during the 2026 Spring Festival, emphasizing new scenes, trends, and flows in Chinese consumption [1] New Scenes - The concept of "traveling for the New Year" and "vacation-style celebrations" is gaining popularity, with families engaging in leisure activities rather than traditional visits [2] - In Fuzhou, the ancient city of Lichuan saw a surge in family tourism, with fully booked accommodations and popular art activities [2][4] - Young consumers are driving the market, with unique venues like Yuefang ID MALL in Changsha attracting significant foot traffic [4] New Trends - There is a shift from purchasing physical goods to services, reflecting an upgrade in consumer demand for convenience and quality [5] - Services such as private chef offerings and professional cleaning are becoming increasingly popular, with a notable rise in demand during the holiday season [5][6] - The pet economy is also expanding, with services like pet boarding and home feeding gaining traction among consumers [6] New Flows - The Spring Festival is becoming a global cultural event, with increased foreign tourist participation and a welcoming environment in China [6][9] - Hainan's duty-free shopping saw significant activity, with sales reaching 2.07 billion yuan and 254,000 shoppers during the holiday period [7] - The introduction of visa-free policies for certain countries is enhancing the attractiveness of China as a travel destination, with predictions of over 2.05 million daily travelers during the holiday, marking a 14.1% increase year-on-year [8][9]

Core Insights - The consumption market in Shanghai is thriving during the Year of the Horse, driven by diverse consumer demands and innovative business models, contributing significantly to the city's economic growth [1][4][11] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The integration of traditional and modern elements in consumer products, such as the North Face's Year of the Horse collection and LEGO's themed sets, reflects a blend of local culture and international appeal [4][5] - The trend towards health-conscious and convenient purchasing is evident, with younger consumers favoring instant retail options and innovative food products for the New Year celebrations [7][11] - The demand for cultural and tourism experiences is rising, with Shanghai offering a variety of events and activities to attract both residents and visitors during the holiday season [8][18] Group 2: Policy Support - Shanghai's government is actively enhancing the business environment and consumer spending through targeted policies, including the issuance of service consumption vouchers and financial support for service industries [11][12] - The city aims to increase the service sector's contribution to GDP, with projections showing a rise from 75.5% in 2021 to 79.3% by 2025, indicating a strong focus on service industry growth [11][14] - New measures introduced in 2026 aim to stimulate service consumption and improve the quality of offerings, particularly in sectors like tourism, entertainment, and financial services [12][15] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The integration of various sectors, such as culture, tourism, and commerce, is seen as a key strategy to enhance consumer engagement and stimulate economic growth [17] - The influx of international tourists, particularly younger demographics, is reshaping the consumption landscape, with a notable increase in overnight visitors [18] - The emphasis on creating a seamless consumer experience through innovative service offerings and enhanced supply chains is crucial for sustaining growth in Shanghai's service economy [17][19]

智通财经APP获悉，2月23日，中指研究院发布2025中国商业地产租金指数研究报告。2025年，消费市场平稳增 长，但下半年增速放缓。消费品以旧换新政策带动家电/3C、家具等品类零售额快速增长，但餐饮消费整体增长 放缓。多数零售商业项目仍选择以价换量降空置，重点城市商铺租金跌幅扩大。2025下半年，百街商铺平均租 金为24.05元/平方米/天，环比下跌0.47%，跌幅较2025上半年扩大0.12个百分点，全年累计下跌0.81%，跌幅较 2024年累计跌幅扩大0.39个百分点。 商铺租金指数运行分析 2025年以来，提振消费各项政策落地显效，消费市场保持平稳增长。2025年，我国实现社会消费品零售总额50.1 万亿元，同比增长3.7%，增速较2024年全年加快0.2个百分点，但6月以来单月增速连续7个月下滑。消费品以旧 换新政策效果明显，2025年商品零售同比增长3.8%，增速较2024年全年加快0.6个百分点；扩大服务消费政策多 点发力，带动服务消费潜力释放，2025年服务零售额同比增长5.5%，但餐饮收入增速下滑至3.2%。多数零售商 业项目仍选择以价换量降空置，重点城市商铺租金延续2024下半年以来下跌态 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant shift towards service consumption in China, driven by technological advancements and changing consumer preferences, particularly during the Spring Festival period [1][17]. Group 1: Service Consumption Trends - There is a growing demand for service consumption that provides emotional value and deep interpersonal connections, which is seen as a key driver for future economic growth and employment absorption [17]. - The logistics sector demonstrated resilience during the Spring Festival, with express delivery services maintaining operations and adjusting prices to reflect demand, thereby ensuring income for frontline workers [18][20]. - The increase in service consumption is linked to a positive economic cycle, where higher demand leads to increased income for service providers, which in turn boosts consumer spending capacity [20][5]. Group 2: Experiential Consumption in Physical Retail - Physical retail spaces are evolving from mere shopping venues to hubs for experience and social interaction, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards experiential consumption [21][22]. - During the Spring Festival, various cultural and interactive activities in commercial districts attracted consumers, enhancing their overall experience and increasing spending [21][22]. Group 3: Macro Data Supporting Service Consumption - Macro data indicates a robust growth in travel and cultural consumption, with Shanghai receiving 2.56 million visitors on the first day of the Spring Festival, a 38.97% increase year-on-year, highlighting a shift from traditional goods consumption to service-oriented spending [24]. - This trend signifies a structural transformation in consumer behavior, where service consumption is becoming a necessity rather than an option [24]. Group 4: Future of Service Consumption - The future of service consumption is expected to be multifaceted, driven by technological innovations and demographic changes, which will create new service demands and opportunities [26][28]. - Innovations like generative AI tools are anticipated to democratize content creation, fostering a vibrant cultural service sector and personalized digital consumption [26][28]. - The aging population is prompting institutional innovations in service delivery, such as short-term care services, addressing the growing demand for elder care and creating new job opportunities that are less susceptible to automation [28].

Core Insights - Domestic demand recovery is ongoing, with technological advancements and emotional consumption as structural highlights [1] - 45% of multinational companies reported improved performance in Q4 2025, while 33% expect further improvement [1][5] - The real estate sector continues to drag down growth, but there are notable structural strengths, particularly in technology and service consumption [1][5] Domestic Demand - Overall domestic demand remains weak, but there are structural highlights such as optimistic prospects for renovation in coatings and elevators [2][12] - Service and emotional consumption are experiencing high demand, with companies like Estée Lauder and Procter & Gamble reporting double-digit growth in specific product lines [2][12] - Companies are adapting to trade friction by increasing localization, with ABB reporting over 85% localization in China [2][12] Trade Friction - Localization strategies are being adopted by companies to mitigate the impact of trade tensions, with some firms shifting to local development and sales models [2][12] - Companies like SKF are facing supply chain pressures due to trade policy uncertainties, but are implementing measures to manage these risks [34] Technology - There is a slight decline in external demand for technology products, with a trend towards domestic substitution becoming evident [3][13] - Traditional companies are benefiting from increased demand driven by technological advancements, particularly in the semiconductor sector [3][13] - U.S. export restrictions and domestic competition are impacting overseas companies' revenues in China [3][13] Industry Summaries Materials and Industrial - Demand for materials and industrial products is generally weak, but there are structural demands in electronic gases due to the semiconductor industry [14][26] - The coatings sector is showing resilience due to renovation demand, while traditional electrical and elevator businesses are facing declines [14][27] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector shows significant differentiation, with companies like Uniqlo experiencing revenue declines due to increased competition [20][21] - High-end products in the beauty sector are performing well, while food and beverage sectors are facing slight declines [21][22] Financial Services - MetLife's operations in China are showing strong recovery, with a focus on optimizing distribution channels and enhancing service offerings [19][41] - The company is transitioning away from telemarketing and focusing on high-end customer segments [41] Technology Hardware - Semiconductor companies maintain a high revenue share in China, but face challenges from export controls and supply chain adjustments [23][30] - Companies like Intel and AMD are experiencing delays and increased competition from local manufacturers [30][31] Machinery - Caterpillar anticipates positive growth in the Chinese market, particularly in larger excavators, while SKF is facing challenges in the automotive sector [32][33] - Companies are adjusting their strategies to focus on local development and sales, with a shift in production towards Southeast Asia [39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in consumer spending and demand for green, smart, and healthy products during the pre-Spring Festival period, indicating a robust recovery in the retail and catering sectors [1][3][5] Group 2 - Data from the Ministry of Commerce shows that the average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 10.6% compared to the same period before the Spring Festival in 2025 [1] - On February 15, foot traffic and sales in 78 monitored pedestrian streets increased by 23.2% and 33.2% respectively compared to the first day of the previous year's holiday [1] - The "trade-in" program has effectively stimulated consumer demand, benefiting 27.56 million people and generating sales of 193.09 billion yuan, with 607,000 cars traded in, leading to new car sales of 99.56 billion yuan [3] - Sales of smart wearable devices on key platforms surged by 130%, with smart blood pressure monitors and blood glucose meters increasing by over 60%, and organic food sales rising by 52% [3] - In the service consumption sector, reservations for New Year's Eve dinners increased by 80.7%, hotel accommodation transactions rose by 32.7%, car rental orders grew by 54%, and spending on ice and snow tourism increased by 120%, while winter vacation spending rose by 68% [5]