证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 02 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 春节假期，旅游市场迎来"开门红" [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 [Table_Summary] ► 史上最长春节假期，多地旅游市场迎来"开门红" 北京市文化和旅游局数据显示，春节假期，北京累计接待游 客 1984.3 万人次，实现旅游总花费 331.4 亿元。 上海市文化旅游局数据显示，据上海旅游大数据监测，春节 假期，全市共接待游客 2167.21 万人次，同比增长 8.36%（按 可比口径，下同）；上海地区含吃、住、行、游、购、娱等全 要素旅游消费交易总金额为 256.14 亿元，同比增长 20.90%； 全市宾旅馆平均客房出租率为 50.60%，同比增长 3.10 个百分 点。 重庆市文化旅游委数据显示，春节假期，全市重点监测的 130 家 A 级景区累计接待游客 1260 万人次，同比增长 5.6%；重点 监测的 10 家旅游休闲街区累计接待游客 492.5 万人次，同比 增长 19.3%。 湖南省文旅厅数据显示，根据手机信令大数据建模统计，春 节假期全省累计接待游客 ...

证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20260223 春节对全年消费有何指示意义？ 2026 年 02 月 23 日 相关研究 《春节海外市场回顾：IEEPA 违法后 特朗普的 Plan B 》 2026-02-22 《美国 1 月 CPI：没那么"弱"—— 2026 年 1 月美国 CPI 数据点评》 2026-02-14 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：今年春节消费有三个特点，一是消费开局强劲，今年春节假 期前 4 天，全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额同比增长 8.6%，高于 去年的 4.1%（去年整个春节假期）。二是春节服务消费内部分化，观影 回落、出行强劲。三是返乡消费增长强劲。春节对全年消费有何指示意 义？我们 ...

记者日前从省商务厅获悉：2025年，陕西聚力打好提振消费硬仗取得显著成绩，加力扩围实施消费 品以旧换新成效明显、商旅文体健融合释放服务消费潜力、试点示范带动作用持续放大、城乡商贸流通 能级不断提升。 为加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新，省商务厅制定工作方案和分领域实施细则，发挥14个部门工作协 调机制作用，省市联动开展政策设计、品类拓展、流程优化、服务提升、金融赋能等工作，安排中央、 省级、市级补贴资金76.86亿元，带动消费682.65亿元，参与企业16156家，惠及消费者超820万人次，推 动新能源汽车、通信器材、家用电器同比分别增长30.6%、40.9%和27.1%。西安政策解读服务、汉中资 金风险防控2项经验入选商务部典型案例。 2025年，省商务厅联合发展改革、财政、教育、民政、文旅、市场监管、体育、统计等部门制定促 进服务消费高质量发展若干措施等18项政策，会同文旅、体育等部门组织知味陕西等服务消费季活动 167场。"过去一年，跟着唐诗游长安蔚然成风，微短剧产业从'当红'走向'长红'，宝鸡推动'票根+'多业 态融合发展，咸阳打造国际面食之都，铜川推出'观赛+滑雪+康养+文创'套餐，延安美食联动红色研 学 ...

来源：宏观fans哲 芦哲 S0600524110003 占烁 S0600524120005 核心观点 核心观点：今年春节消费有三个特点，一是消费开局强劲，今年春节假期前4天，全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额同比增长8.6%，高于去年的4.1% （去年整个春节假期）。二是春节服务消费内部分化，观影回落、出行强劲。三是返乡消费增长强劲。春节对全年消费有何指示意义？我们认为可能有以 下三方面信号：一是我们预计开年消费将温和复苏，1-2月社零同比增速可能介于去年上半年（5%）和下半年（2.5%）之间，相比去年底1%左右的增速 明显回升。二是从春节实践来看，全年消费可能有更多政策呵护，政策重心从"以旧换新"补贴转向其他方面，如消费贷贴息、有奖发票、支持服务消费、 鼓励优质供给等。三是2026年商品消费可能弱于去年，服务消费成为主要支撑。 春运：历史最多出行人次，节后出行强于节前。截至正月初五，今年春运前20天全国跨区域人员流动达到50.8亿次，创下历史最高水平，较去年同期增长 5.5%。从交通部口径的跨区域人员流动量来看，今年节前15天的日均流量为2.3亿人次，比去年同期高3.2%；而节后5天为3.2亿人次，比去年同 ...

服务消费与民生福祉紧密相关，是推动经济高质量发展的重要抓手，也是满足人民群众美好生活需要的 重要内容。2020年至2025年，我国居民人均服务性消费支出年均增长8.5%，展现出强大的增长动能。 规模扩大的同时，消费者的关注点正在从"有没有"向"好不好"转变，对个性化、多样化、品质化服务消 费产品的需求日益增强。 近日，《加快培育服务消费新增长点工作方案》（以下简称《工作方案》）印发，对进一步优化和扩大 服务供给、培育服务消费新增长点、促进服务消费提质惠民作出系统部署。商务部副部长鄢东表示， 《工作方案》旨在通过扩大优质服务供给，增强服务消费供需适配，提升人民群众的获得感和幸福感。 网络视听开辟空间 当前，我国网络视听用户规模超10亿人。广电总局网络视听节目管理司司长王小亮表示，网络视听已经 深度融入经济社会和人们的生活，成为激活消费、服务民生的重要领域。 "网络视听凭借极强的沉浸感和互动性，能够将用户庞大的'内容注意力'高效转化为'消费行动力'，并不 断延伸产业链条，开辟新的服务消费空间。"王小亮表示，透过一部手机、一块屏幕，背后是规模庞 大、活力充沛的服务消费新市场。网络视听服务消费潜力巨大、前景广阔。《工 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the vibrant consumer landscape during the 2026 Spring Festival, emphasizing new scenes, trends, and flows in Chinese consumption [1] New Scenes - The concept of "traveling for the New Year" and "vacation-style celebrations" is gaining popularity, with families engaging in leisure activities rather than traditional visits [2] - In Fuzhou, the ancient city of Lichuan saw a surge in family tourism, with fully booked accommodations and popular art activities [2][4] - Young consumers are driving the market, with unique venues like Yuefang ID MALL in Changsha attracting significant foot traffic [4] New Trends - There is a shift from purchasing physical goods to services, reflecting an upgrade in consumer demand for convenience and quality [5] - Services such as private chef offerings and professional cleaning are becoming increasingly popular, with a notable rise in demand during the holiday season [5][6] - The pet economy is also expanding, with services like pet boarding and home feeding gaining traction among consumers [6] New Flows - The Spring Festival is becoming a global cultural event, with increased foreign tourist participation and a welcoming environment in China [6][9] - Hainan's duty-free shopping saw significant activity, with sales reaching 2.07 billion yuan and 254,000 shoppers during the holiday period [7] - The introduction of visa-free policies for certain countries is enhancing the attractiveness of China as a travel destination, with predictions of over 2.05 million daily travelers during the holiday, marking a 14.1% increase year-on-year [8][9]

Core Insights - The consumption market in Shanghai is thriving during the Year of the Horse, driven by diverse consumer demands and innovative business models, contributing significantly to the city's economic growth [1][4][11] Group 1: Consumer Trends - The integration of traditional and modern elements in consumer products, such as the North Face's Year of the Horse collection and LEGO's themed sets, reflects a blend of local culture and international appeal [4][5] - The trend towards health-conscious and convenient purchasing is evident, with younger consumers favoring instant retail options and innovative food products for the New Year celebrations [7][11] - The demand for cultural and tourism experiences is rising, with Shanghai offering a variety of events and activities to attract both residents and visitors during the holiday season [8][18] Group 2: Policy Support - Shanghai's government is actively enhancing the business environment and consumer spending through targeted policies, including the issuance of service consumption vouchers and financial support for service industries [11][12] - The city aims to increase the service sector's contribution to GDP, with projections showing a rise from 75.5% in 2021 to 79.3% by 2025, indicating a strong focus on service industry growth [11][14] - New measures introduced in 2026 aim to stimulate service consumption and improve the quality of offerings, particularly in sectors like tourism, entertainment, and financial services [12][15] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The integration of various sectors, such as culture, tourism, and commerce, is seen as a key strategy to enhance consumer engagement and stimulate economic growth [17] - The influx of international tourists, particularly younger demographics, is reshaping the consumption landscape, with a notable increase in overnight visitors [18] - The emphasis on creating a seamless consumer experience through innovative service offerings and enhanced supply chains is crucial for sustaining growth in Shanghai's service economy [17][19]

智通财经APP获悉，2月23日，中指研究院发布2025中国商业地产租金指数研究报告。2025年，消费市场平稳增 长，但下半年增速放缓。消费品以旧换新政策带动家电/3C、家具等品类零售额快速增长，但餐饮消费整体增长 放缓。多数零售商业项目仍选择以价换量降空置，重点城市商铺租金跌幅扩大。2025下半年，百街商铺平均租 金为24.05元/平方米/天，环比下跌0.47%，跌幅较2025上半年扩大0.12个百分点，全年累计下跌0.81%，跌幅较 2024年累计跌幅扩大0.39个百分点。 商铺租金指数运行分析 2025年以来，提振消费各项政策落地显效，消费市场保持平稳增长。2025年，我国实现社会消费品零售总额50.1 万亿元，同比增长3.7%，增速较2024年全年加快0.2个百分点，但6月以来单月增速连续7个月下滑。消费品以旧 换新政策效果明显，2025年商品零售同比增长3.8%，增速较2024年全年加快0.6个百分点；扩大服务消费政策多 点发力，带动服务消费潜力释放，2025年服务零售额同比增长5.5%，但餐饮收入增速下滑至3.2%。多数零售商 业项目仍选择以价换量降空置，重点城市商铺租金延续2024下半年以来下跌态 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant shift towards service consumption in China, driven by technological advancements and changing consumer preferences, particularly during the Spring Festival period [1][17]. Group 1: Service Consumption Trends - There is a growing demand for service consumption that provides emotional value and deep interpersonal connections, which is seen as a key driver for future economic growth and employment absorption [17]. - The logistics sector demonstrated resilience during the Spring Festival, with express delivery services maintaining operations and adjusting prices to reflect demand, thereby ensuring income for frontline workers [18][20]. - The increase in service consumption is linked to a positive economic cycle, where higher demand leads to increased income for service providers, which in turn boosts consumer spending capacity [20][5]. Group 2: Experiential Consumption in Physical Retail - Physical retail spaces are evolving from mere shopping venues to hubs for experience and social interaction, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior towards experiential consumption [21][22]. - During the Spring Festival, various cultural and interactive activities in commercial districts attracted consumers, enhancing their overall experience and increasing spending [21][22]. Group 3: Macro Data Supporting Service Consumption - Macro data indicates a robust growth in travel and cultural consumption, with Shanghai receiving 2.56 million visitors on the first day of the Spring Festival, a 38.97% increase year-on-year, highlighting a shift from traditional goods consumption to service-oriented spending [24]. - This trend signifies a structural transformation in consumer behavior, where service consumption is becoming a necessity rather than an option [24]. Group 4: Future of Service Consumption - The future of service consumption is expected to be multifaceted, driven by technological innovations and demographic changes, which will create new service demands and opportunities [26][28]. - Innovations like generative AI tools are anticipated to democratize content creation, fostering a vibrant cultural service sector and personalized digital consumption [26][28]. - The aging population is prompting institutional innovations in service delivery, such as short-term care services, addressing the growing demand for elder care and creating new job opportunities that are less susceptible to automation [28].

Core Insights - Domestic demand recovery is ongoing, with technological advancements and emotional consumption as structural highlights [1] - 45% of multinational companies reported improved performance in Q4 2025, while 33% expect further improvement [1][5] - The real estate sector continues to drag down growth, but there are notable structural strengths, particularly in technology and service consumption [1][5] Domestic Demand - Overall domestic demand remains weak, but there are structural highlights such as optimistic prospects for renovation in coatings and elevators [2][12] - Service and emotional consumption are experiencing high demand, with companies like Estée Lauder and Procter & Gamble reporting double-digit growth in specific product lines [2][12] - Companies are adapting to trade friction by increasing localization, with ABB reporting over 85% localization in China [2][12] Trade Friction - Localization strategies are being adopted by companies to mitigate the impact of trade tensions, with some firms shifting to local development and sales models [2][12] - Companies like SKF are facing supply chain pressures due to trade policy uncertainties, but are implementing measures to manage these risks [34] Technology - There is a slight decline in external demand for technology products, with a trend towards domestic substitution becoming evident [3][13] - Traditional companies are benefiting from increased demand driven by technological advancements, particularly in the semiconductor sector [3][13] - U.S. export restrictions and domestic competition are impacting overseas companies' revenues in China [3][13] Industry Summaries Materials and Industrial - Demand for materials and industrial products is generally weak, but there are structural demands in electronic gases due to the semiconductor industry [14][26] - The coatings sector is showing resilience due to renovation demand, while traditional electrical and elevator businesses are facing declines [14][27] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector shows significant differentiation, with companies like Uniqlo experiencing revenue declines due to increased competition [20][21] - High-end products in the beauty sector are performing well, while food and beverage sectors are facing slight declines [21][22] Financial Services - MetLife's operations in China are showing strong recovery, with a focus on optimizing distribution channels and enhancing service offerings [19][41] - The company is transitioning away from telemarketing and focusing on high-end customer segments [41] Technology Hardware - Semiconductor companies maintain a high revenue share in China, but face challenges from export controls and supply chain adjustments [23][30] - Companies like Intel and AMD are experiencing delays and increased competition from local manufacturers [30][31] Machinery - Caterpillar anticipates positive growth in the Chinese market, particularly in larger excavators, while SKF is facing challenges in the automotive sector [32][33] - Companies are adjusting their strategies to focus on local development and sales, with a shift in production towards Southeast Asia [39]