每经记者|涂颖浩 每经编辑|黄博文 国家金融监督管理总局数据显示，截至今年9月底，险资运用余额已突破37万亿元，较去年底增长 12.6%。 从财产险公司和人身险公司合计来看，险资运用余额超36万亿元，较去年底增长12.26%。其中，股票 投资余额3.6万亿元，较去年底增加近1.2万亿元，增幅为49%。同时，股票投资余额占比达到10%，较 去年底增加约2.5个百分点。整体来看，险资股票投资余额出现较大增长，投资比例持续提升。 业内指出，2024年四季度以来，中央利好政策频出，投资人信心恢复，推动股市估值修复创新高，险资 趁机加仓股票，且增量资金侧重权益资产配置，叠加股票升值，股票配置占比明显上升。 值得一提的是，受险企配置策略调整和债市调整的综合影响，债券占比出现环比下降。中泰证券非银分 析师表示，自2022年第二季度监管首次披露该数值以来，债券配置占比首现下降，归因来看主要系人身 险公司配置占比下降所致。 不过，与去年底相比，债券余额增长14%，仍增加了22532亿元。从占比来看，从去年末的49.14%增加 至50.33%，占比也有所提升。中泰证券非银分析师认为，当前险资配置债券一方面系积极践行资产负 债匹配 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume remains low, and short - term market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index up further [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1] - The recent cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has led to a callback in copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metal prices, but the callback range of copper is expected to be limited. For different non - ferrous metals, there are different fundamental factors affecting their prices [1] - For various commodities such as steel, energy, and agricultural products, their prices are affected by factors such as seasonality, supply - demand relationship, cost, and macro - sentiment, and most of them are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with different risk and opportunity characteristics [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Stock and Bond Markets - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and short - term divergence will be digested during shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving factor [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks suppress the upward trend [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper price has a limited callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation in December [1] - Aluminum price has a callback due to the cooling of the Fed rate - cut expectation and limited industrial - side drive [1] - Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - Zinc has support below due to low LME inventory and signs of improvement in the domestic fundamentals [1] - Nickel price may fluctuate weakly in the short term due to macro - weakness and high inventory, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel continues [1] - Stainless steel futures are looking for a bottom in shock, and short - term operations are recommended, paying attention to selling - hedging opportunities [1] - Tin is still bullish in the long - term despite short - term pressure from the Fed rate - cut expectation [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals may be under pressure in the short term due to the hawkish statements of Fed officials, and attention should be paid to the upcoming US economic data [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production capacity is resuming, Southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and it is affected by polysilicon [1] - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation increases marginally in the fourth quarter [1] - Lithium carbonate: It may fluctuate due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and high hedging pressure [1] Steel and Iron Ore - For steel products, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose, and attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1] - Iron ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil is expected to run weakly due to the increase in production in the first half of November [1] - Soybean oil has support from domestic consumption demand and export window, but the CBOT soybean's retracement of policy premium has a short - term negative impact [1] - Rapeseed oil: The inability of Canada to cancel tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and plans to increase biodiesel production capacity make it difficult for Canadian rapeseed to be exported to China in the short term, and the basis is stable and slightly strong [1] - Cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to relevant policies and planting conditions [1] - Sugar: Global sugar supply turns from shortage to surplus, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be under pressure and follow the trend of raw sugar [1] - Corn: Short - term spot prices are firm, but the selling pressure is postponed, and the upward drive of the futures price is weak [1] - Soybean meal: The short - term upward expectation lacks impetus, and the market may start to trade the selling pressure of South American new crops from December to January [1] Energy and Chemicals - Fuel oil: Affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies, it is expected to fluctuate [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to decline due to factors such as the possible falsification of the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand [1] - Rubber: Different types of rubber have different price trends affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and market atmosphere [1] - PTA and related products: Their prices are affected by factors such as gasoline profit, device maintenance, and raw - material cost [1] - Ethylene glycol: Its price is affected by the decline of crude oil price, the increase of coal price, and the strong expectation of domestic device commissioning [1] - Other chemicals: Their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship, cost, and device maintenance [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the financial industry, particularly focusing on the impact of "anti-involution" policies on interest rates and the bond market [1][5][11]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Trends** - Current fundamentals and liquidity conditions support a downward trend in interest rates, despite banks reducing long-term bond holdings due to pressure from performance indicators and profit realization needs [1][2][11]. - The average deposit cost for listed banks is expected to decrease by another 13 basis points by the end of next year, alleviating net interest margin pressure [1][7]. 2. **Impact of Anti-Involution Policies** - The anti-involution policy aims to slow the rapid decline of loan rates while accelerating the decrease in deposit burdens. However, this may lead to insufficient financing demand and a reduction in loan volumes [5][6]. - The policy is expected to focus on optimizing resource allocation within the financial system rather than significantly altering the current credit issuance landscape [8]. 3. **Asset-Liability Dynamics** - A decrease in corporate deposits is causing a slowdown in asset-liability growth, potentially exacerbating the "asset shortage" phenomenon. While household deposits are increasing, the lack of investment channels further intensifies this issue [9][10]. - The financial system's reliance on household savings rather than loan-derived credit makes it challenging to implement balance sheet reductions effectively [8]. 4. **Market Conditions and Predictions** - The bond market remains volatile, with 10-year and 30-year treasury yields showing little change. However, a downward trend in rates is anticipated due to weakening fundamentals and a contraction in both investment and consumption growth [3][12]. - By year-end, the 10-year treasury yield is expected to recover to a range of 1.6% to 1.65% [3][13]. 5. **Investor Recommendations** - Investors are advised to adopt a barbell strategy, focusing on long-term aggressive instruments such as 30-year treasuries and bonds with maturities of 5 to 10 years [3][13]. Other Important Insights - The reduction in deposit rates is not expected to lead to significant outflows from the banking system, as broader interest rates are also declining, and banks maintain their settlement functions [10]. - The overall market is anticipated to experience a smoother downward trend in interest rates as funding supply slows, further intensifying the asset shortage [12].

Market Overview - The bond market showed a strong consolidation on November 17, with all major government bond futures closing higher, and interbank bond yields declining by approximately 0.5-1 basis points [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan in the open market, with funding rates collectively rising due to tax period disturbances [1][6] Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.33% to 116.45, the 10-year main contract increased by 0.09% to 108.485, the 5-year main contract went up by 0.05% to 105.905, and the 2-year main contract gained 0.03% to 102.48 [2] Yield Movements - Major interbank bond yields generally declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 0.35 basis points to 1.8015%, and the 30-year government bond yield decreasing by 1 basis point to 2.1385% [2] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.71 basis points to 4.146% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 3 basis points to 1.73% [4] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields also saw increases, with French yields up by 4.3 basis points to 3.457% [4] Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had successful bids with yields of 1.3849% for 1.074 years, 1.6197% for 3 years, and 1.7076% for 5 years, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.6, 7.53, and 1.24 respectively [5] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [6] Institutional Insights - Institutions suggest that the current market conditions may lead to continued downward pressure on yields due to insufficient financing demand and ongoing asset scarcity, with a focus on the allocation opportunities towards the end of the year and early next year [1][7] - The tightening supply of convertible bonds has led to increased valuations, with recommendations for investors to focus on mid-to-large cap, relatively low-priced securities while taking profits on high-priced, overvalued stocks [8]

【 摘要 】国信证券荀玉根称，经济逐渐走出通缩，基本面改善，行情向纵深发展，基本面由点 到面扩散中。中金公司陈健恒认为，在融资需求不足而资产荒延续背景下，债券配置力量或持续 有利于利率下行。 一、焦点锐评 1．央行将加量续做6个月期买断式逆回购 11月14日，中国央行发布公开市场买断式逆回购招标公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，11月17 日，央行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展8000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为 6个月（182天）。由于本月有3000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购到期，因此在开展上述操作后，6个 月期买断式逆回购将实现净投放5000亿元。这也是央行连续第6个月加量续做买断式逆回购。 【解读】目前，央行基本形成每月5号前后开展3个月期买断式逆回购、15号前后开展6个月期买 断式逆回购、25号开展MLF操作的中长期资金投放模式。民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，在年 内稳增长诉求加大、财政加力的背景下，货币政策的协同性将进一步加强，资金面有望保持宽松 状态。 二、权益市场 1.中信证券：角逐定价权，迈入低波市 中信证券裘翔指出，中国资本市场正从新兴市场逐步转型为成熟市场，上市公司全球业务敞口持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the public offering REITs market saw a slight increase, with a decrease in trading volume. Both the equity - type and franchise - type public offering REITs indices rose. There are 23 public offering REITs funds awaiting listing, and the market is expected to continue expanding. In the context of asset shortage, public offering REITs have the advantages of high dividends and medium - low risks, and their allocation cost - performance is relatively high [2][4][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market: Slight Increase in the Public Offering REITs Market This Week - **Market Index Performance**: As of November 14, 2025, the China Securities REITs Index rose 0.82% to 818.17 compared to last week, and the China Securities REITs Total Return Index was 1050.45, up 0.86% from last week [9]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover**: The total trading volume of the REITs market this week was 710 million shares, a 3.14% week - on - week decline, and the trading amount was 2.844 billion yuan, a 1.15% week - on - week decline. The market turnover rate was 2.83%, down from 2.96% last week [11]. - **Index Performance by Asset Type**: Equity - type and franchise - type public offering REITs indices rose by 0.68% and 0.31% respectively. Among them, transportation infrastructure REITs had the highest increase, and municipal facilities REITs had the highest decline [4][14]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover by REITs Type**: Most types of public offering REITs saw an increase in trading volume and turnover. Water conservancy facilities, new infrastructure, warehousing and logistics, energy infrastructure, and transportation infrastructure REITs had increased trading volume, while others decreased. The daily average turnover rate of some types also changed accordingly [19][21]. - **Single - Product Performance**: Among the 77 public offering REITs, 56 rose, 20 fell, and 1 remained unchanged. The top - rising products included Zhongjin Shandong Hi - Speed Group Expressway REIT, etc., and the top - falling products included Huatai Zijin Nanjing Jianye Industrial Park REIT, etc. [23]. 3.2 Primary Market: 23 Public Offering REITs Funds Awaiting Listing - **Issuance Situation**: As of November 14, 2025, a total of 77 public offering REITs had been issued, with a total issuance scale of 198.1 billion yuan. In 2025, 18 public offering REITs were issued, 2 in October, and none in November [3][30]. - **Pending Listings**: There are 23 public offering REITs funds awaiting listing, including 10 for initial offerings and 13 for expansion. In terms of project status, 10 have passed, 7 have been feedback, 4 have been questioned, and 2 have been accepted [32]. 3.3 Public Offering REITs Policies and Market Dynamics - **Xiamen Anju Group's Plan**: On November 12, Xiamen Anju Group announced plans to use enterprise - bond investment projects as underlying assets for the expansion of Zhongjin Xiamen Anju REIT. The application materials have been officially accepted by the CSRC and the Shanghai Stock Exchange [35][36]. - **NDRC's Recommendation**: As of November 12, the National Development and Reform Commission has recommended 105 REITs projects to the CSRC, with 83 successfully listed, raising 207 billion yuan and expected to drive over 1 trillion yuan in new project investments [37]. - **Early End of Subscription for Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT**: On November 12, Huaxia Anbo Warehouse REIT announced the early end of the public - investor subscription and proportionate allocation due to over - subscription [38]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions This week, the REITs index rose slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The market is expected to continue expanding. In the context of asset shortage, public offering REITs have high dividends and medium - low risks, with high allocation cost - performance [4][40].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The REITs market is expected to continue expanding due to supportive government policies aimed at promoting private investment projects in the infrastructure sector [5][13] - The bond market's downward pressure on interest rates is likely to enhance the attractiveness of REITs as a high-dividend, low-risk asset class, especially with expectations of increased participation from social security and pension funds [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The CSI REITs closing index reached 818.17, up 6.38% year-on-year and 0.82% month-on-month; since the beginning of 2024, it has increased by 8.16%, while the CSI 300 index has risen by 34.89%, resulting in an excess return of -26.73% [6][15] - The CSI REITs total return index stood at 1050.45, with a year-on-year increase of 12.19% and a month-on-month increase of 0.86%; since the beginning of 2024, it has risen by 21.9%, compared to a 34.89% increase in the CSI 300 index, leading to an excess return of -12.99% [19][24] Weekly Tracking - In the 46th week of 2025, the REITs market saw a trading volume of 710 million shares, a year-on-year increase of 73.59%, and a trading value of 2.844 billion yuan, also up 73.52% year-on-year; the turnover rate was 2.83%, with a slight decrease of 0.21 percentage points year-on-year [6][26][30] - Over the past 30 days, the total trading volume in the REITs market was 3.762 billion shares, down 1.19% year-on-year, with a total trading value of 15.988 billion yuan, down 5.58% year-on-year [31] Sector Performance - In the 46th week of 2025, the weekly and monthly performance of various REITs sectors was as follows: affordable housing REITs rose by 1.15% weekly and 1.34% monthly; environmental REITs increased by 0.11% weekly and 2.38% monthly; highway REITs grew by 1.81% weekly and decreased by 3.16% monthly; industrial park REITs rose by 0.07% weekly and fell by 2.03% monthly; warehousing and logistics REITs increased by 0.49% weekly and 0.09% monthly; energy REITs rose by 0.30% weekly; and consumer REITs increased by 1.25% weekly and 4.3% monthly [37][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Credit demand is generally weak, and the loan growth rate is expected to continue to slow. The bond market will maintain a volatile recovery trend, and the 10-year Treasury bond rate (old active bond) is expected to recover to the pre-adjustment level of 1.6%-1.65% by the end of the year [1][6]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Credit Situation - In October, the new credit was 22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28 billion yuan, and the new credit scale has decreased year-on-year for four consecutive months. Except for bill financing, the new scale of medium and long-term loans for residents and enterprises decreased year-on-year to varying degrees, and short-term corporate loans were the same as the previous value [1][9]. - In terms of corporate credit, the new corporate credit in October was 35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22 billion yuan, mainly due to bill financing. The new medium and long-term corporate loans were 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14 billion yuan; short-term corporate loans were -19 billion yuan, the same as the previous year; bill financing was 50.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.12 billion yuan [2][9]. - In terms of household loans, the new household loans in October were -36.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.04 billion yuan in reduction. The new medium and long-term household loans were -7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18 billion yuan in reduction; short-term household loans were -28.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.56 billion yuan in reduction. Short-term loans have decreased year-on-year for four consecutive months, and real estate sales have continued to decline since mid-October, indicating weak social terminal demand [2][9]. Social Financing Situation - The growth rate of social financing further declined. In October, the new social financing was 81.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.71 billion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. The issuance of government bonds was stable, with a new scale of 48.93 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 70 billion yuan and a year-on-year decrease of 56.02 billion yuan [3][13]. - Assuming that 1 trillion yuan of next year's issuance quota is issued in the fourth quarter of this year, it is estimated that government bonds from November to December will still decrease year-on-year. By the end of the year, the social financing growth rate may drop to about 8.3% [3][13]. Money Supply Situation - In October, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 dropped from 7.2% to 6.2%, partly due to the base effect and partly related to the outflow of household deposits. The two-year compound growth rate of M1 in October was 1.85%, basically the same as the previous value. The year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8.2%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month [4][17]. Deposit and Loan Situation - In October, new deposits were 61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1 billion yuan. The stock index broke through 4,000 points on October 29, and household and corporate deposits may have flowed to non-bank institutions. Household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 770 billion yuan in reduction; corporate deposits decreased by 1.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 355.3 billion yuan in reduction; non-bank deposits increased by 1.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 770 billion yuan [5][19]. - The overall deposit growth rate in October was 8.0% year-on-year, the same as the previous month, while the loan growth rate dropped slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%. The gap between deposit and loan growth rates widened to 1.5 percentage points, indicating a continued asset shortage [5][19]. Bond Market Situation - The broad-spectrum interest rate continued to decline, and the bond market continued to recover in a volatile manner. The year-on-year growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 all declined in October, and household credit decreased, indicating a weak recovery in the current fundamentals. The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile recovery trend, and the interest rate is expected to decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter [6][21].

（文章来源：中国证券报） 人民财讯11月14日电，记者调研发现，2026年银行"开门红"出现新变化：启动时间点前移，区域性中小 银行成为"抢跑先锋"，股份行、国有大行略显低调；揽储、放贷仍是重头戏，大行更注重"规模与结 构"的平衡。谈及"开门红"提前的原因，业内人士分析称，"资产荒"已成为行业共性挑战，持续承压的 经营现状加剧了部分银行"抢跑"的冲动。银行应走出内卷式竞争的误区，从规模扩张转向价值创造，加 快构建健康的客户关系、优质的资产结构和可持续的盈利能力。 ...

Core Insights - The "opening red" marketing strategy in Chinese banks is evolving, with a shift towards earlier initiation and a focus on balancing scale and structure in operations [1][2][4] Group 1: Changes in Marketing Strategies - Many regional banks have already started their 2026 "opening red" initiatives as early as October 2025, indicating a proactive approach to meet annual targets [2] - National banks are adopting alternative names for traditional "opening red" campaigns, such as "spring financial service festival," to comply with regulatory expectations while still pursuing similar marketing goals [3][4] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The banking sector is facing a common challenge of "asset scarcity," which has intensified competition and prompted banks to act earlier in securing resources [6] - The average net interest margin for commercial banks narrowed to 1.42% in Q2 2025, contributing to the urgency for banks to lock in performance early in the year [6] Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Banks are transitioning from a focus on scale expansion to value creation, emphasizing the importance of building healthy customer relationships and sustainable profitability [5][6] - There is a notable shift in retail banking towards increasing the weight of non-interest income sources, such as funds and insurance, while still maintaining some focus on deposit acquisition [4][5] Group 4: Recommendations for Future Growth - Banks are encouraged to leverage big data and customer relationship management systems to enhance precision in marketing and adjust credit resources towards strategic industries [7]