Report Industry Investment Ratings - No clear overall industry investment ratings are provided, but specific investment suggestions for various products are given, such as "bullish" for PVC, "bearish" for container shipping on the European line, and "suggested to buy on dips" for some metals [1] Core Views - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks. Commodities show diverse trends, with some metals like nickel and stainless steel expected to be strong, and agricultural products and energy - chemical products having their own supply - demand and price trends [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index has further risen, with increased trading volume, positive market sentiment, and liquidity. It has broken through the previous shock range and is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term [1] - **Bond Futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Metals - **Copper**: Although the industrial situation is weak, the positive macro - sentiment and the continuous premium of US copper have led to a further increase in copper prices. There is a short - term adjustment risk, but the upward trend is expected to remain [1] - **Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, with limited industrial drivers, so the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short - term. The National Development and Reform Commission's policies on resource - constrained industries may affect the price of alumina, which has rebounded from an oversold state [1] - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, with the cost center moving up. Most of the recent negative factors have been realized, but market sentiment is volatile, so the zinc price will fluctuate [1] - **Nickel**: Due to the expected reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore production in 2026 and concerns about supply, the Shanghai nickel price has risen significantly, and it may remain strong in the short - term. Short - term low - buying is recommended, but over - chasing high is not advisable [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, and the social inventory of stainless steel has slightly decreased. Steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless steel futures may fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and short - term low - buying is recommended [1] - **Tin**: The initiative of the non - ferrous tin industry branch to guide the price back to the normal range has pressured the tin price. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, there is still a possibility of supply fermentation. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities near the support level after a short - term correction [1] - **Precious Metals**: After a sharp adjustment, precious metals may gradually stabilize and enter a high - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities for gold in the follow - up [1] - **Platinum and Palladium**: After two consecutive daily limit drops, the futures - spot divergence has improved, and the premium over the foreign market has narrowed. In the short - term, they are expected to enter a range - bound shock. In the long - term, platinum can still be bought on dips or use the "long platinum, short palladium" arbitrage strategy [1] Energy - Chemical Products - **Polysilicon and Silicone**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices but a low willingness to deliver, and short - term speculative sentiment is high [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The long - short positions in the futures - spot arbitrage can take rolling profits. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward potential [1] - **Black Metals**: The black metal market is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation. The current direct demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is accumulating, but energy - consumption control and anti - involution may affect supply [1] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The fourth - round spot price cut has started. After the futures price dropped to the level of the fourth - round cut and rebounded, attention should be paid to whether it can reach a new low during the price - cut implementation period [1] - **Palm Oil**: It follows the trend of other oils in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for the January USDA report [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recent news has led to a significant rebound in the single - side price and the 1 - 5 spread, but it is difficult to change the subsequent weakening fundamentals. It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and waiting and seeing is recommended [1] - **Cotton**: The domestic new crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream start - up rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a state of "supported but without a driver" [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers [1] - **Corn**: The grass - roots grain sales progress of corn is fast, and the current port and downstream inventory levels are still low. Most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the mid - downstream restocking demand [1] - **Soybeans**: The domestic rumor of customs control on soybean imports is beneficial to the near - month contracts and the long - short arbitrage. The US soybean exports are weak, and the South American weather has no obvious speculation drivers [1] - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures are affected by the "weak demand" reality and the "strong supply" expectation, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the 1 - 5 inverse spread [1] - **Log Fibreboard**: Affected by the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure as it approaches the delivery month and is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil exports affect the price [1] - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short - term. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - **BR Rubber**: The raw material cost has strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may show a cumulative trend [1] - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device maintains a high load, the polyester pre - holiday inventory and sales have improved, and the new polyester device has been put into production, maintaining a high consumption of PTA [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Two MEG devices in Taiwan, China, are planned to stop production next month. After a continuous decline, it rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news. The downstream polyester start - up rate is high, and the overall sales are high [1] - **Styrene**: The price of Asian styrene has rebounded briefly after continuous decline, mainly due to supply - side contraction. The demand for polymer downstream products is weak, but the warming of the commodity market sentiment has significantly boosted the styrene futures price [1] - **PE**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the operating load is high, and the supply has increased. The downstream demand has weakened, the crude oil price has decreased, and the market expectation is weak in 2026 [1] - **PP**: The number of overhauls is small, the operating load is high, and the supply pressure is large. The downstream improvement is less than expected, but the high price of propylene monomers and the rising crude oil price provide strong cost support [1] - **PVC**: The global production capacity will be less in 2026, and the future is expected to reach the bottom of the cycle. There will be less subsequent overhauls, new production capacity will be released, supply pressure will increase, and demand will weaken [1] - **Caustic Soda**: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. The operating load is high, and there is inventory pressure in Shandong, with a price - cut pressure [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical and tariff tensions have eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the fundamental loosening logic. The CP/FEI has recently rebounded, the northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, with no inventory pressure [1] Others - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price increase in December was less than expected, the expectation of price increase in the peak season was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose in December, so it is bearish [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market sentiment and liquidity are in a good state, with the stock index breaking through the previous shock range and expected to remain strong in the short - term. The bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Different commodities in various industries show different trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - factors [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Categories Equity and Bond Markets - **Stock Index**: The stock index continued to rise yesterday, with increased trading volume. It has broken through the previous shock range and is expected to maintain a strong upward trend in the short - term [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The industrial situation is weak recently, but the macro sentiment is positive, so the copper price remains strong [1]. - **Aluminum**: There has been inventory accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum recently, with limited industrial drivers. However, due to positive macro sentiment, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed to strengthen management and optimize the layout of resource - constrained industries such as alumina and copper smelting. Alumina has rebounded from an oversold position, and the policy's sustainability should be monitored [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With the improvement of market risk appetite, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. - **Nickel**: The macro sentiment has warmed up. Indonesia's nickel ore premium in December remained stable. The planned RKAB nickel ore production in 2026 is expected to be reduced to 2.5 billion tons (a year - on - year decrease of 34%), and nickel - associated minerals will be priced. The global nickel inventory is still at a high level. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently, and the short - term nickel price may be strong. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will remain in an oversupply situation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The market sentiment is high. Silver has accelerated its upward movement, and gold has risen steadily. The gold - silver ratio has fallen to the lowest level since 2013. The short - term precious metal prices are expected to remain strong, but there is a risk of sharp fluctuations in silver [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium in the overseas market rose significantly last Friday, which is expected to drive up the domestic prices. However, the domestic futures prices of platinum and palladium have a large premium over the spot and overseas prices, so investors are advised to participate rationally [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a medium - to - long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter. Large enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices and a low willingness to deliver goods. The short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, and the energy storage demand is strong. The supply side has increased production, and the price has accelerated its rise in the short - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The basis of the futures - spot spread and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward potential [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The direct demand has weakened, the supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the prices are under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the official announcement of the steel export licensing system, the coking coal and coke prices rebounded quickly after opening lower, showing signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The high - frequency data has improved, but it is difficult to change the expectation of a loose supply in the production areas. Rebound short - selling is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The export of US soybeans is weak, and there is no obvious speculation driver in South American weather. The Brazilian premium is expected to be under pressure. The M05 contract is expected to be relatively weak, showing a pattern of strong near - month and weak far - month contracts [1]. - **Corn**: The progress of farmers' grain sales at the grass - roots level is relatively fast, and the inventory levels of ports and downstream are still low. Most traders have not started strategic inventory building. The futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly under the restocking demand of the middle and lower reaches [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in an oversupply situation, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. There is a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil exports [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is affected by the same factors as crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical and tariff situation has eased, and the international oil and gas market has returned to the logic of a fundamentally loose supply. The CP/FEI has recently rebounded. The domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth, and the inventory has no pressure. The PG futures price has maintained a range - bound movement after a supplementary decline [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of the Xinyue Bay project in Shenzhen has led to a staggering sales figure of 10 billion yuan within just two hours, indicating a significant surge in luxury real estate demand in the region, despite broader market challenges [2][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The opening of Xinyue Bay set a new price ceiling in Shenzhen's luxury market, with an average price of 244,000 yuan per square meter and a peak price of 380,000 yuan per square meter, surpassing previous records [2][4]. - The luxury real estate market in Shenzhen has seen a rapid increase in activity, with several high-profile projects, including the recent sales of 13 billion yuan at the Shenzhen Bay Luanxi and 5.3 billion yuan at the GCC Lian Tai Chao Zong Wan, contributing to a total of nearly 30 billion yuan in just one month [4][9]. Group 2: Historical Context - The Xinyue Bay site was previously owned by Kaisa Group, which acquired it for 5.8 billion yuan in 2013, but faced financial difficulties that nearly left the project abandoned [5][6]. - The "service trust" model employed by creditors, such as CITIC, has allowed for the restructuring of the project, isolating previous debts and enabling a profitable sale, which necessitated high pricing to cover costs [7]. Group 3: Buyer Behavior - Wealthy buyers are aggressively purchasing luxury properties not necessarily due to confidence in the real estate market, but as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, viewing these properties as a safe haven for their capital [11]. - The recent lifting of the "70/90" policy has made it easier for buyers to purchase larger units without the complications of dual ownership requirements, further fueling demand for high-end properties [8][10].

固收-债市年度策略 20251229 摘要 2026 年可转债市场面临净退出规模 1,000 亿至 1,500 亿，市场面值或 收缩至 4,000 亿以内，高等级转债占比下降，剩余期限压缩，A 股波动 率低，对转债定价构成压力。 可转债市场需求端呈现产品化和被动化趋势，公募 ETF 增持显著，对市 场估值形成支撑，但降低了定价效率。二级债基保持一定比例可转债仓 位以维持产品特色。 当前市场估值处于 2021-2023 年高位，需注意交易策略和仓位控制。 转债弹性与 A 股牛市机会和稀缺性相关，若无主升浪，或仅为高位震荡。 2026 年超越转债指数难度加大，大盘转债价格已贵，结构选择应聚焦 少数标的，如价格下限较高且具弹性的标的，或聚焦科技类、反内卷方 向。 2025 年债市机会较少，长债表现不佳，信用债市场呈牛市状态，信用 利差收窄。2026 年需关注海外因素、国内通胀和资产荒演绎对债市定 价的影响。 Q&A 2026 年可转债市场的供需矛盾情况如何？ 股票和纯债的组合能否复制转债的优势？从估值角度来看，当前市场情况如何？ 股票和纯债的组合很难复制转债的凸性或其夏普比率的优势。要实现这一点， 只有通过择时策略 ...

债 债券周报 券 。 2025-12-29 [ [Table_Title] 公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨，国泰海通东久新经济 REIT 扩募份额上市 b l 公募 REITs 周报（2025.12.22-2025.12.28） 相关研究报告： [Table_ReportInfo] 《公募 REITs 市场小幅下跌，华夏 安博仓储 REIT 成功上市》--2025- 12-23 《公募 REITs 市场小幅下跌，华夏 中核清洁能源 REIT 获准予注册》- -2025-12-15 《公募 REITs 市场小幅下跌，国家 发改委拓展 REITs 行业范围清单》 --2025-12-7 证券分析师： [Table_Author] 徐超 电话：18311057693 E-MAIL：xuchao @tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190521050001 证券分析师：戴梓涵 电话：18217681683 E-MAIL：daizh@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524110003 [Table 报告摘要_Summary] 一、二级市场：本周公募 REITs 市场小幅上涨 本周公募 REITs 市 ...

【导读】景林、星石、重阳等知名私募展望2026年市场投资机会 临近年末，多家明星私募机构陆续发表新一年的投资展望和策略。 景林资产总经理高云程致信投资者，总结去年投资的同时对2026年进行了展望。高云程认为，AI对各 行各业的渗透和改造才刚刚开始，2026年很可能是AI Agent真正普及的元年。 星石投资认为，2026年泛科技产业需求将保持旺盛，但传统行业价格趋势也有望迎来改善。 重阳投资对A股市场依然持积极态度，但提出投资者需要降低收益预期，在策略上立足于保住2025年牛 市的胜利果实，再寻找进一步扩大收益的机会。 高云程也指出，在AI突进式发展的同时，也出现越来越多质疑的声音。"确实有一些公司的市值建立在 对未来特别乐观的预期之上，但我们的核心持仓公司估值都在历史合理区间内，而且生意模式具备定价 权，竞争格局处于有利地位，管理层也足够清醒理性。" 他表示，景林资产核心持仓中的公司都有一个共同特点：这几家公司都对他们的客户有强黏性和定价 权、产品差异化明显、他们都能够按照自己的节奏控制合意利润率水平。 "绝大部分公司都是在市场竞争中舍命狂奔的状态，没有控制节奏的从容。只有商业模式极好和竞争格 局特别的企业 ...

【导读】景林、星石、重阳等知名私募展望2026年市场投资机会 中国基金报记者 孙越 景林资产总经理高云程致信投资者，总结去年投资的同时对2026年进行了展望。高云程认 为，AI对各行各业的渗透和改造才刚刚开始，2026年很可能是AI Agent真正普及的元年。 星石投资认为，2026年泛科技产业需求将保持旺盛，但传统行业价格趋势也有望迎来改善。 重阳投资对A股市场依然持积极态度，但提出投资者需要降低收益预期，在策略上立足于保住 2025年牛市的胜利果实，再寻找进一步扩大收益的机会。 景林资产高云程： 没有AI船票的企业，是要被边缘化的 "我们清晰地看到AI对各行各业的渗透和改造才刚刚开始。未来的巨头现在可能还是刚起步的 AI原生公司。"景林资产管理合伙人、基金经理高云程说。 他认为，2025年AI行业兴起始于DeepSeek的横空出世，让世界认识到中国在生成式人工智 能的竞争浪潮中是有竞争力和性价比优势的。除DeepSeek外，Qwen在开源模型中的全球采 用度也证明了即使在缺乏最先进GPU的条件下，国产模型依然可以利用现有可用资源让领先 者焦虑，也让全球有美国以外的选择。 高云程也指出，在AI突进式发展的同 ...

| CTERHH | 日度策略参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2025/12/ | 人业资格号:F02519 | | | | | | | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 品种 | 昨日股指进一步上行,市场成交量有所放大,市场情绪和流动性 | 股指 | 维持良好态势。短期股指突破前期震荡区间,预计仍将保持偏强 | | 运行态势。 | 六八守 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,近期关注 | 国债 | 震荡 | 日本央行利率决策。 | | | 近期产业面偏弱,而宏观情绪向好,铜价维持偏强。 | 近期国内电解铝有所累库，产业驱动有限,而宏观情绪向好, | 铝 | 价震荡偏强运行 | | | | | 国家发改委提出对氧化铝、铜冶炼等强资源约束型产业,强化管 | 氧化铝 | 震荡 | 理、优化布局,氧化铝超跌反弹,关注政策持续性。 | 锌基本面有所好转,成本中枢上移,近期利空因素已基本兑现。 | | | | 随着市场风险偏好好转,锌价震荡偏强。 | 宏观情绪转暖。印尼12月镍矿升水仍 ...

【导读】五大私募展望 2026 年债市投资机会 中国基金报记者 刘明 站在 2025 年年末，如何看待 2025 年债市变化？ 2026 年债券市场有哪些投资机会？为回 答上述问题，中国基金报采访了多家知名私募投研掌门人。受访私募机构人士包括银叶投资 首席投资官许巳阳，万柏基金创始合伙人、总经理范强华，安佑基金执行董事兼总经理何玉 涛，恒立基金创始人、总经理潘焕焕，以及宁水资本研究总监陈昭斌。 受访私募主要观点如下： 银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳： 2026 年，预计难以看到利率单边下行趋势，长端利率继续宽 幅震荡，长债有阶段性上行风险。利率债市场更看好中短端利率品种表现， 12 月中央经济工 作会议定调货币政策将继续保持适度宽松，有助于短端资产的平稳表现。 万柏基金创始合伙人、总经理范强华： 2026 年，重点看好以下三类品种：一是中短端高等 级信用债，是组合的 " 压舱石 " 。二是转债市场的结构性机遇，部分具备强基本面支撑的偏 债型转债展现出极佳的 " 债底 + 期权 " 属性。三是中资点心债。 安佑基金执行董事兼总经理何玉涛： 2026 年将延续 " 股牛 + 债不熊 " 格局：债市依然 " 上有顶、下有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2026 is expected to experience low volatility and maintain a low interest rate environment, with a focus on short to medium-term bonds and convertible bonds as key investment opportunities [2][12][16]. Group 1: 2026 Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is anticipated to face challenges with long-term interest rates experiencing wide fluctuations and potential upward pressure due to supply and inflation expectations [2][12]. - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, supporting short-term assets and maintaining a stable performance in the bond market [2][12][16]. - The overall sentiment towards the bond market is optimistic, with expectations of a recovery in market conditions and structural opportunities arising from a low interest rate environment [3][15]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities identified for 2026 include high-grade short to medium-term credit bonds, structural opportunities in the convertible bond market, and Chinese dim sum bonds [2][16][20]. - Convertible bonds are highlighted as particularly attractive due to expected supply shortages and their dual nature of providing both bond-like security and equity-like upside [17][20]. - The focus on "fixed income plus" products is emphasized as a cost-effective strategy, leveraging ETFs to enhance returns while managing volatility [20][21]. Group 3: 2025 Market Review - The bond market in 2025 deviated from initial expectations, with higher volatility and a more pronounced differentiation in credit bonds than anticipated [7][8]. - Factors such as central bank policies, trade tensions, and unexpected regulatory changes contributed to the market's performance, leading to a reassessment of risk and return dynamics [4][8][12]. - The overall trajectory of the bond market in 2025 was characterized by a "slow bull" pattern, with fluctuations driven by external economic conditions and policy responses [7][12].