经历昨日沃什"缩表"交易扰动后，今日A股市场探底回升，市场情绪快速修复，沪指、创业板指均涨超 1%，深成指涨超2%，科创综指涨幅2.44%领涨主要宽基，沪深两市成交额2.54万亿，较上一个交易日缩 量405亿。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超4800只个股上涨。从板块来看，商业航天、太空光伏 概念爆发，半导体设备、化工板块表现活跃，贵金属探底回升，AI应用方向也表现活跃。 近期A股市场波动较大，昨日一度出现恐慌性抛售，主要由多因素叠加所致：1、市场预期层面，投资 者正快速评估新提名美联储主席凯文·沃什的"降息+缩表"政策主张，引发金融市场紧缩担忧； 责任编辑：刘生傲 经历昨日沃什"缩表"交易扰动后，今日A股市场探底回升，市场情绪快速修复，沪指、创业板指均涨超 1%，深成指涨超2%，科创综指涨幅2.44%领涨主要宽基，沪深两市成交额2.54万亿，较上一个交易日缩 量405亿。盘面上，市场热点快速轮动，全市场超4800只个股上涨。从板块来看，商业航天、太空光伏 概念爆发，半导体设备、化工板块表现活跃，贵金属探底回升，AI应用方向也表现活跃。 近期A股市场波动较大，昨日一度出现恐慌性抛售，主要由多因素叠加所致：1 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Biodiesel, Cottonseed Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Soybeans, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] - **Neutral**: Most other industries including stocks, bonds, and various metals and agricultural products, with suggestions of short - term caution, waiting for opportunities, and controlling risks [1] 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: In the short term, policies will support the A - share market, but overseas liquidity tightening may cause panic. In the long run, the stock index is still expected to rise due to low - interest rates, "asset shortage" and economic bottom - building. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - **Metals**: Macro - level risk aversion is pressuring the non - ferrous metals sector. Supply concerns in Indonesia are affecting nickel and stainless steel, while other metals like zinc, tin, etc. are facing different price trends and risks [1]. - **Agricultural products**: Different agricultural products have different market situations. For example, cotton has support but lacks a driving force; sugar has a bearish consensus but cost support; grains are expected to oscillate and decline before the holiday [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical sector is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Some products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are showing different price movements and trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro - financial** - **Stocks**: Short - term caution is advised due to A - share weakness and overseas liquidity concerns. Long - term upward trend is expected due to low - interest rates and economic recovery [1]. - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks are highlighted, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision should be monitored [1]. **Metals** - **Non - ferrous metals**: Overall under pressure from risk aversion. Nickel and stainless steel are affected by Indonesian supply issues. Zinc is expected to correct, and tin's price has fluctuated but not in a trend - reversing way. Gold and silver are in short - term oscillatory or stabilizing trends. Platinum and palladium may be supported in the short term [1]. - **Industrial metals**: Alumina is expected to oscillate near the cost line. Steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil) have limited upward space, and iron ore has a clear upper pressure [1]. **Agricultural products** - **Grains and oilseeds**: Soybeans are expected to be weak. Cotton is "supported but without a driver". Sugar has a bearish consensus but cost support. Grains are expected to decline before the holiday [1]. - **Livestock**: The pig production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Fossil fuels**: Crude oil and fuel oil may be affected by OPEC+ policies, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Asphalt has high profits but is also affected by supply and demand [1]. - **Chemicals**: PX drives the chemical sector. PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene have different supply - demand and price trends. Methanol, polyethylene, PVC, and LPG are affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1]. **Shipping** - **Container shipping**: The freight rate on European routes has peaked and declined before the holiday. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights and plan to raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of expected tightening of overseas liquidity, the US dollar index rebounded significantly. Yesterday, all non - ferrous varieties in the domestic commodity market hit the daily limit down, triggering an overall adjustment of risk assets. The stock index dropped significantly due to the linkage between commodities and the stock market and concerns about overseas liquidity tightening [6]. - The current A - share market is dominated by capital and policy. About 70 billion yuan flowed out of broad - based ETFs from January 15th to 27th, presumably due to Central Huijin's reduction to cool the market. The redemption of broad - based ETFs weakened last Thursday and Friday. In the short term, the policy is expected to take flexible measures to support the market. In the long run, the medium - to - long - term upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.36 with a 3.65bp increase; DR007 at 1.49 with a - 10.20bp change; GC001 at 1.78 with a 17.50bp increase; GC007 at 1.64 with a 3.00bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.59 with a - 0.01bp change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year treasury at 1.30 with a 0.50bp increase; 5 - year treasury at 1.57 with a - 0.10bp change; 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a 0.10bp increase; 10 - year US treasury at 4.26 with a 2.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 75 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 75.5 billion yuan. This week, 1.7615 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases are due to mature, and 700 billion yuan of 91 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on Wednesday [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell to 4016, the CSI 300 dropped 2.13% to 4606, the SSE 50 declined 2.07% to 3003, the CSI 500 decreased 3.98% to 8037, and the CSI 1000 fell 3.39% to 7975. The decline of stock index futures was greater than that of the underlying indexes, and the discount widened, indicating a rapid cooling of market sentiment. The trading volume of the three major stock exchanges in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing was 2.6069 trillion yuan, a decrease of 255.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Most industry sectors fell, with only power grid equipment and the brewing industry rising [5]. - **Futures Performance**: The trading volume of IF increased by 6.8% to 191,408, and the open interest decreased by 5.6% to 313,881; IH trading volume rose 15.9% to 89,283, and open interest decreased by 2.5% to 119,304; IC trading volume increased 16.4% to 289,004, and open interest decreased by 5.9% to 328,769; IM trading volume rose 11.3% to 307,100, and open interest increased by 1.3% to 414,250 [5]. - **Premium and Discount**: The report provides the premium and discount rates for different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing adjustments, yet the Huatai-PineBridge Dividend Low Volatility ETF (512890) is seeing increased capital inflow, indicating strong investor confidence in this ETF despite broader market declines [1][3][11]. Group 1: ETF Performance and Market Context - On February 2, major indices fell over 2%, while the Huatai-PineBridge Dividend Low Volatility ETF closed down only 1.20% at 1.154 CNY, with a turnover rate of 3.32% and a total trading volume of 9.58 billion CNY, leading its category [1][9][10]. - Over the past five trading days, the ETF has seen a net inflow of 680 million CNY, with 2.38 billion CNY over the last 20 days and 4.26 billion CNY over the last 60 days, reflecting a growing preference for this investment vehicle [3][11]. Group 2: Fund Size and Liquidity - As of January 30, the Huatai-PineBridge Dividend Low Volatility ETF had 24.844 billion shares outstanding, corresponding to a total size of 28.966 billion CNY, with a year-on-year share growth of 9.06% and a size growth of 8.26% [5][13]. - The ETF has recorded a cumulative trading amount of 18.123 billion CNY over 21 trading days this year, averaging 863 million CNY per day, indicating robust liquidity [5][13]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Market Outlook - The dividend low volatility strategy is characterized by its ability to navigate through market cycles, enhancing the risk profile of traditional high-volatility dividend strategies, making it particularly appealing in the current volatile market [5][13]. - Fund manager Liu Jun emphasizes that the dividend sector's allocation value is worth noting for Q1 2026, supported by both short-term and medium-term logic, with a favorable environment for risk appetite expected to emerge [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant improvement in trading sentiment, with transaction volumes reaching historical highs, indicating a strong upward trend since mid-December 2025 [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index achieved a 17-day consecutive rise, reaching its highest level in nearly a decade, with average daily transaction volumes exceeding 30 trillion yuan since the beginning of 2026 [1]. - The market's active trading environment is characterized by a high turnover rate of 5.7%, the most active since 2015, with a record transaction amount of 3.99 trillion yuan on January 14, 2026 [1][12]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Retail investors have been increasingly entering the market, with an average of 2.43 million new accounts opened monthly in Q4 2025, driven by a "scarcity of assets" and the relative attractiveness of the stock market [2][18]. - High-risk preference funds, including margin financing and private equity, have seen significant increases in their positions, with margin financing balances surpassing 2.7 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1][16]. Group 3: Fund Flows - Stock ETFs have experienced a shift in growth momentum, with significant inflows into industry-themed ETFs, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and aerospace, reflecting changing investor preferences [3][22]. - Northbound capital has shown a gradual return to the A-share market, with a net inflow of 117 billion yuan in Q4 2025, as global monetary conditions favor Chinese assets [4][24]. Group 4: Institutional Investment - Insurance funds have accelerated their entry into the market, with stock and securities investments reaching 5.6 trillion yuan, the highest since 2013, indicating a growing commitment to equity investments [5][26]. - Active funds have regained excess returns, with the mixed equity fund index yielding 11.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 7 percentage points, leading to a positive trend in fund issuance and redemption [5][28]. Group 5: Sector Focus - Institutional investors have increased their focus on sectors such as non-ferrous metals and telecommunications, while reducing exposure to electronics and biopharmaceuticals, reflecting a strategic shift in portfolio allocations [8][34]. - The market is expected to maintain a relatively active trading sentiment, supported by low interest rates and a favorable environment for equity investments, with potential for further inflows from both domestic and foreign investors [9][39].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the convertible bond market, particularly the strong performance of new bonds, is attributed to changes in market supply-demand dynamics, shifts in capital allocation preferences, and the unique characteristics of the new bonds [1][6]. Group 1: Performance of New Bonds - The new convertible bonds launched in January 2026 have shown remarkable performance, with an average first-day increase of 57.3% and a turnover rate exceeding 200% on some days [1][2]. - All new bonds listed in January maintained prices above 150 yuan, with the "Lianrui Convertible Bond" being a standout, doubling in price within three trading days and closing at 226.512 yuan on January 30 [3][4]. - The average conversion premium for these new bonds is notably high, with "Lianrui Convertible Bond" at 115.52% and "Jin 05 Convertible Bond" at 103.15%, indicating strong market enthusiasm [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The convertible bond market is experiencing a supply shortage, with an estimated 1,600 billion yuan of bonds expected to exit the market in 2026, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [6]. - The low interest rate environment has increased demand for yield-enhancing assets, further supporting the convertible bond market's high valuation [7]. - New bonds are characterized by a lack of strong redemption pressure and good liquidity, which, combined with their association with technology and innovation sectors, enhances their appeal [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Focus - Investors are advised to focus on convertible bonds with strong fundamental support, particularly those in the technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, which align with current market investment themes [5][8]. - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic, but there is a caution regarding the high valuations of new bonds, as potential corrections in the stock market could impact both stock and bond valuations [8][9]. - Future supply changes are anticipated, with a projected issuance of around 600 billion yuan in convertible bonds for 2026, which will be critical in assessing the sustainability of current valuation levels [9].

2026 年 2 月 1 日 总量研究 警惕转债估值过高的风险 ——2026 年 2 月 1 日可转债观察 要点 1、警惕转债估值过高的风险 金融资产价格的中长期走势在很大程度上取决于其估值，估值越贵则下跌的概率 越大。可转债是其正股的衍生品，因此其价格的走势既取决于正股，也取决于其 相对于正股的估值，后者较可能是主导转债市场波动的决定性力量。 转股溢价率是最重要的估值指标之一。其代表转债价格相对于转换价值的溢价程 度，或者说是为了使转股不亏钱而需要的正股涨幅。在其他条件相同时，转股溢 价率越高则其估值越贵。 2026 年 1 月末，转债市场转股溢价率的中位数为 33.2%，处于自 2018 年初以 来的 71%分位数，估值已偏贵。进一步讲，只有 2022-2024 年中一些月份的转 股溢价率明显超过了 2026 年 1 月末，而这段时间溢价率的抬升主要是正股下跌 所导致的。（注：正股和转债同时下跌而转债跌幅小，因此溢价率抬升。） 为了过滤掉正股下跌的影响，我们剔除了每一时间点净价低于 120 元的转债， 重新计算转股溢价率中位数。2026 年 1 月末，净价在 120 元（含）以上的转债 的溢价率中位数为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold prices, with a 12.41% decline, is attributed to market dynamics influenced by both retail investors and central banks, leading to a volatile environment for gold investments [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On January 31, 2026, gold prices fell sharply, with a drop from $5,400 to $4,700, reflecting a broader trend of volatility in precious metals [3]. - Chinese citizens purchased 1,003 tons of gold in 2025, spending approximately 796 billion RMB, averaging 7 grams of gold per person [3]. - The global central banks bought a record 1,136 tons of gold in 2025, with China increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months [4]. Group 2: Investment Behavior - The surge in gold purchases is not merely driven by retail investors but is significantly influenced by central banks seeking to hedge against economic instability [4][6]. - The gold ETF market saw a dramatic increase, with a 243% rise in scale, indicating a shift towards digital gold investments, which proved less reliable during market downturns [9]. - A warning is issued against treating gold as a speculative asset, emphasizing its role as a store of value rather than a trading tool [8]. Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of the dollar, which has led to increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, have further solidified gold's status as a reliable asset during uncertain times [6]. Group 4: Risks and Warnings - The volatility of gold prices reached a 40-year high, with daily fluctuations averaging 3.2%, which is double that of the S&P 500 index [10]. - Historical patterns suggest that significant drops in gold prices can occur following periods of rapid increases, as seen in past financial crises [13]. - The potential for a decline in gold prices below $4,500 could lead to a 30% bankruptcy rate among global gold mining companies [13].

流动性系列之一 "资产荒"的逻辑与测算 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 28 日 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] 分析师 王先爽 执业证书： S0590525120014 邮箱： wangxianshuang@glms.com.cn 分析师 文雪阳 执业证书： S0590526010002 邮箱： wenxueyang@glms.com.cn 相对走势 -10% 3% 17% 30% 2025/1 2025/7 2026/1 银行 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 权益市场的红利行情是固收市场"资产荒"的外溢，我们看到，2023 年到 2024 年， 红利股和债市走牛。2025 年，随着利率中枢抬升，市场红利行情消退。银行股股 息率高，具有典型的红利属性，所以对于银行投资，研究利率至关重要。虽然"资 产荒"对于银行经营是压力，但是"资产荒"形成的利率中枢下行对银行股估值 可能是提振，所以我们往往看到银行股区间相对收益与银行景气度呈现负相关。 同时，银行作为全社会债权资产的最大持有方，其资负预算直接影响利率中期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Copper, Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Canola Oil [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Non - ferrous Metals, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum - Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Other Metals, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Shanghai Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Polyester Staple Fiber, Styrene, Methanol, PE, PP, PVC, SS, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The stock index is expected to have limited short - term shock adjustment space and mainly show a shock - strong trend [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum are rising. The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing, and there is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level [1]. - The supply of stainless - steel raw materials is unstable, and the futures are oscillating at a high level. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar has limited incremental supply in the first quarter, and there is upward potential for tin prices [1]. - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the prices of precious metals have risen strongly, but short - term fluctuations are severe. The prices of platinum and palladium fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices [1]. - The production of industrial silicon in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December has decreased [1]. - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, but the energy - storage demand is strong. The price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly [1]. - The expected increase in rebar and iron - ore prices is not strong, and it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply and demand of other metals are in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation [1]. - The supply of soda ash is more relaxed in the medium term, and the price is under pressure. The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract, and the previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1]. - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the price of palm oil is expected to be shock - strong. The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and the price is bullish [1]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted, and the supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving force [1]. - The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The upward momentum of corn prices before the holiday is insufficient [1]. - The Brazilian soybean supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up the soybean - meal price. The paper - pulp price has fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - The price of logs is expected to have limited further decline space and will fluctuate within a certain range. The pig - production capacity needs to be further released [1]. - Due to OPEC+ suspending production increase, tense Middle - East geopolitics, and the US cold wave, the price of crude oil is affected [1]. - Bitumen follows the trend of crude oil, and its profit is relatively high. Shanghai rubber is driven by cost and market sentiment to rise [1]. - The fundamentals of BR rubber are mixed, with short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - long - term upward expectations. The PTA and polyester staple - fiber markets are affected by the strong PX market [1]. - The price of styrene has rebounded, and the inventory pressure has decreased. The methanol market is affected by the Iranian situation and downstream feedback [1]. - The supply of PE and PP is under pressure, and the PVC market has both positive and negative factors. The SS market fundamentals are weak [1]. - The LPG market is affected by multiple factors, and the price is expected to weaken. The freight rate of container shipping on European routes has peaked and fallen before the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index - Before the holiday, the domestic macro - level may be relatively calm, and market performance will be highly related to regulatory trends. The short - term shock adjustment space is limited, and it will mainly show a shock - strong trend [1] Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Copper - Although the industrial drive is limited, the market risk preference has increased, and copper prices have risen further [1] Aluminum - Recently, the industrial drive is limited, but the decline of the US dollar index supports the price. Coupled with the tense situation in the Middle East, which causes concerns about the supply side, aluminum prices are running strongly [1] Alumina - The supply of domestic alumina is strong while demand is weak, and the industrial situation is weak. The price is under pressure, but it is currently near the cost line and is expected to fluctuate [1] Zinc - The cost center of zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. Recently, the North American cold wave has increased energy prices, which is unfavorable for the resumption of overseas smelters. There is room for a supplementary increase in zinc prices [1] Non - ferrous Metals - The market risk preference has recovered, which boosts non - ferrous metals. The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and short - term nickel prices are running at a high level, still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metals sector. In the medium - long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect [1] Stainless Steel - The supply of raw - material nickel - iron prices has been rising continuously, the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, the speed of social - inventory reduction has slowed down, and the steel mills' production schedule in January has increased. The supply - side disturbances are repeated, and the stainless - steel futures are oscillating at a high level [1] Tin - In the short term, the market sentiment is changeable. Although the approval of explosives in Myanmar is a negative news, the incremental supply of tin ore in Myanmar in the first quarter is still limited. Under the situation of fragile supply and rigid demand, there is upward potential for tin prices [1] Precious Metals - Due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran, the demand for hedging and the wave of de - dollarization have accelerated, and the prices of precious metals have risen strongly again. However, as the market sentiment has fermented to the extreme, the prices of gold and silver have plunged at a high level, with severe short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to participate with a light position [1] Platinum - Palladium - The macro - drive has weakened, and the liquidity is relatively insufficient, resulting in large price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium are different. There is still a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. It is recommended to allocate platinum at low prices or focus on the [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy [1] Industrial Silicon - The production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased [1] Polysilicon - The new - energy vehicle market is in the off - season, the energy - storage demand is strong, there is a rush for battery exports, and the price has risen significantly [1] Lithium Carbonate - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is weak, and the sentiment has not been smoothly transmitted to the spot market. The upward momentum is insufficient [1] Rebar - The expected increase is strong, but the spot market is light, and the sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth. The upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to close the long - single position and participate in the cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] Iron Ore - There is sector rotation, but the upward pressure on iron - ore prices is obvious. It is not recommended to chase up at this position [1] Other Metals - There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply and demand continue to be weak, but energy - consumption dual control and anti - involution may have an impact on the supply [1] Soda Ash - It mainly follows the trend of glass. The medium - term supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1] Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking - coal 05 contract. After the first - round price increase of coke was shelved on Monday, funds began to anticipate the downstream's active de - stocking after the holiday. The short - position increased, and the price of coking - coal 05 broke through the previous important multi - empty boundary and support levels. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed [1] Coke - The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Palm Oil - The purchase rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and the production area is expected to reduce production and inventory. Coupled with the possible fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to be shock - strong [1] Soybean Oil - The fundamentals of domestic soybean oil are strong, and coupled with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel, it is bullish [1] Canola Oil - Due to the influence of the US, the relationship between China and Canada is still uncertain, the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked, and the short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel is beneficial to the oil market [1] Cotton - The domestic new - crop harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream operation rate is low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new - crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "supported but lack of driving force" [1] Sugar - Globally, there is a sugar surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving force. Attention should be paid to the change in the capital side [1] Corn - Before the holiday, the stocking is almost over, the regional price difference is at a low level, and the domestic grain - reserve inventory is sufficient. The funds have taken profit, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and回调 before the holiday [1] Soybean Meal - In February, there is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. The expected logistics congestion has postponed the selling pressure of Brazilian premiums. Unilaterally, there are no conditions for a significant trend - like increase. Currently, the domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing profit is at a high level, and from the perspective of crushing profit, the valuation of the soybean - meal futures is relatively high. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [1] Pulp - Today, the pulp price has fallen due to the decline of the commodity macro - market, but it has not broken through the oscillation range. The short - term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Logs - The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottom - rebounding recently, and the futures price is expected to have limited further decline space. However, the January overseas offer has still slightly decreased, and the spot and futures markets of logs lack upward - driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1] Pigs - Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the slaughter weight not fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has heated up, and the cold wave in the US has increased energy demand [1] Bitumen - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th - Five - Year Plan rush - work demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit of bitumen is relatively high [1] Shanghai Rubber - The raw - material cost has strong support, the sharp rise of synthetic rubber has driven the sector to strengthen, and the overall atmosphere of the commodity market is bullish [1] BR Rubber - The cost - end butadiene still has strong bottom support, and the overseas cracking - device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants has been severely lost, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased, and the short - term downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. Fundamentally, butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and the high inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring - Festival inventory reduction of cis - butadiene rubber and the performance of butadiene inventory. The short - term futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation and a callback, and there is an upward expectation for BR in the medium - long term [1] PTA - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the production reduction of polyester factories has had a limited negative feedback on PTA [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - The PX market has strongly led the rise of chemical products, and a large amount of funds have flowed into the chemical sector. Driven by the "cycle reversal" narrative, the market has significantly increased the allocation of chemical products. Polyester has led the rise of the entire chemical sector. The domestic PTA production has continued to increase, there is no new PTA production capacity in China, the domestic PTA has maintained a high - operation rate, the domestic demand has declined, and the price of polyester staple fiber continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations [1] Styrene - There is news that the styrene plant in the Middle East has shut down. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene have improved marginally, the styrene futures price has rebounded rapidly. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, supported by the increase in domestic export opportunities and the rise of domestic prices. The styrene - benzene price difference has widened, and the economy has been slightly repaired. The styrene inventory has decreased, and the overall inventory pressure has been reduced [1] Methanol - Methanol is generally affected by the situation in Iran, and it is expected that the future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious, with both long and short factors intertwined. The downstream MTO leading plant has shut down, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The situation in Iran has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. Affected by the cold air, the freight in the inland area has increased, and the northwest enterprises have a large pressure to reduce inventory and sell at a reduced price [1] PE - The overseas ethylene glycol price has rebounded after a long - term slump. The reduction of ethylene glycol exports in the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 1.8 - million - ton ethylene glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch the production of a 900,000 - ton EG production line in mid - February due to profit reasons. Driven by this news, the speculative demand in the market has significantly increased [1] PP - There are few maintenance operations, the operation load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The downstream improvement is less than expected. The price has returned to a reasonable range. The geopolitical conflict has intensified, and there is a risk of crude - oil price increase [1] PVC - In 2026, the global new production capacity is relatively small, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. The fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a phenomenon of rushing for exports later. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the elimination of PVC production capacity [1] SS - The macro - sentiment has temporarily subsided, and the futures price is expected to react to the fundamentals again. The fundamentals are weak, and the absolute price is at a low level. The factory is facing continuous inventory accumulation, and the spot price may still be reduced [1] LPG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February, and the futures sentiment will switch between fundamentals and sentiment. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, the futures price is expected to weaken, and the basis is expected to gradually widen. The domestic PDH operation rate has declined, the profit is expected to be seasonally repaired, the global civil - combustion rigid demand is stable, the demand for MTBE