- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it provide details on their construction or evaluation [1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and price-to-book ratios [5][6][19][28][40][49][55] - The analysis includes comparisons of indices against their historical averages, standard deviations, and percentile rankings over the past 1 and 5 years, providing insights into valuation and market sentiment [32][43][45][54] - Key indices analyzed include the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, CSI All Share, and ChiNext Index, with detailed metrics such as risk premiums, PE-TTM values, dividend yields, and net asset ratios provided for each index [13][19][32][45][54][58] - The report highlights the relative valuation and investment attractiveness of these indices based on their historical positioning and current market conditions, but does not delve into specific quantitative factor or model construction [43][45][54]

资本回报率已低于资本成本，行业不可持续 当前油价下，行业的资本回报率(ROACE)已经低得惊人。 伯恩斯坦的测算显示，石油行业平均需要50-55美元/桶的油价才能实现盈亏平衡。如果油价维持在60美元/桶，行业的资本回报率将仅为低至中个 位数。 回顾历史，2019年油价为64美元/桶时，资本回报率仅为6%;而2024年油价平均81美元/桶时，回报率才达到11%。 考虑到行业过去100年的平均资本回报率约为10%，当前的低回报率意味着资本正在流出该行业。根据周期性投资手册，当资本回报率低于资本成 本且资本开始撤离时，正是投资者入场的最佳时机。 当下的原油市场正处于一种极度分裂的状态：共识极度悲观，但基本面却在暗流涌动。 伯恩斯坦在最新的报告中直言不讳地指出，目前市场上确实存在一个巨大的看空理由——供过于求。中国需求的疲软、OPEC减产的解除以及非 OPEC国家供应的强劲增长，导致去年石油库存增加了超过4亿桶(>100万桶/日)。市场共识因此大幅下调了2025年的油价预期，甚至有分析师预测 2026年布伦特原油将跌至61美元/桶。 然而，这正是逆向投资者的机会所在。伯恩斯坦认为，当市场盯着短期的供需失衡时，却忽视了 ...

■韩昱 《报告》显示，2025年全球黄金总需求达到5002吨，创历史新高。细分来看，投资需求的大幅攀升成为 推动2025年黄金总需求刷新历史纪录的主要驱动力。不仅是全球央行在增持黄金，私人投资者也在通过 多种渠道配置黄金资产。 1月29日，世界黄金协会发布的2025年全年《全球黄金需求趋势报告》（以下简称《报告》）显示， 2025年全球央行购金需求依然保持高位，官方机构增持863吨黄金。 可以看出，在"去美元化"持续发酵的同时，全球央行出于多元化配置等考量，黄金配置意愿仍较强，这 将成为支撑金价的主要因素之一。 其次，全球风险事件频发，黄金作为传统避险资产的风险溢价将加大。 国际地缘政治冲突、美元信用相关的金融风险等，都使得市场正在改变对全球风险的定价，即不再局限 于短期或者单次的冲突或危机，而是将相关风险视为长期存在的结构性变量，这在黄金方面形成了持续 的风险溢价。 最后，价格的形成受到供需关系的影响，黄金的总需求持续增加成为支撑金价上涨的底层逻辑。 最近，短短3个交易日内，国际金价从5500美元/盎司以上的高位，一度跌至接近4400美元/盎司水平。 同时，已有多家银行相继调整积存金相关业务，并发布风险提示 ...

但2月2日油价盘中跌幅一度超过5%。瑞银在其最新发布的一份研究报告中称，本轮油价的大幅攀升， 核心驱动力并非供需基本面的根本性改善，而是伊朗局势升级引发的风险溢价上升。 瑞银强调，油价上涨的可持续性高度依赖地缘冲突的演变。若伊朗及周边地区的能源基础设施未受到实 质性冲击，油价将面临显著回调风险，这与2025年6-7月的市场走势具有相似性——当时地缘紧张局势 缓解后，油价出现了阶段性回落。 01 关键变量：霍尔木兹海峡关闭概率低 原本走势强劲无比的黄金白银突然崩盘，看空情绪也传导到了能源市场。 霍尔木兹海峡的通航状态是影响全球石油贸易的"生命线"，也是本次报告重点关注的核心风险点。 2026年开年以来，受伊朗相关地缘局势紧张影响，布伦特原油价格累计上涨近20%至每桶约70美元。 伊朗供需：产量稳定，出口合理 作为石油市场的关键风险变量，伊朗的石油生产与出口格局并未出现大幅异动。根据国际能源署(IEA) 数据，过去几个月伊朗石油产量保持稳定，2025年12月原油日均产量达到340万桶，展现出较强的生产 韧性。 出口方面，伊朗原油出口量从2025年10月190万桶/日的近期高点回落至约150万桶/日，但仍处于近期形 ...

白银的波动更为剧烈，盘中一度跌至71.312美元/盎司，年内涨幅也从60%大幅收窄至4%左 右。紧随其后的是，各家机构紧急发布风险提示，交易所也上调了相关品种的保证金比例和涨 跌幅的幅度。 截至20:20，现货黄金、白银跌幅收窄。现货黄金跌幅从最多10%收窄至2%，现货白银跌幅从 最多16%收窄至2%。 | 国际贵会属 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 4774.630 | -120.488 | -2.46% | 10.57% | | 伦敦银现 | 83.558 | -1.701 | -1.99% | 16.74% | | COMEX黄金 | 4777.4d | 32.3 | 0.68% | 9.53% | | COMEX白银 | 82.210d | 3.679 | 4.68% | 15.82% | | 伦敦金(人民币/克) | 1065.8814 | -26.8976 | -2.46% | 9.87% | | 伦敦银(人民币/千克) | 18653.4108 | -379.6841 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: None - **Hold (★★☆)**: None - **Weak Buy (★☆☆)**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Egg - **Neutral (White Star)**: None - **Weak Sell (★☆☆)**: Live Pig - **Sell (★★☆)**: None - **Strong Sell (★★★)**: None [1] Core Views - The recent price movements of agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean oil, and palm oil, have been influenced by macro factors, such as the high - volatility and price correction of gold and silver, and the market's evaluation of the policy orientation of the Fed Chair nominated by Trump. Short - term attention should be paid to the macro - market guidance [2][4]. - The overall market was weak today due to the limit - down of metals such as gold, silver, and copper. Different agricultural products face different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends. For example, Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach a record high, while the harvest progress is in the early stage. The supply of domestic cuisine is expected to become looser, and the demand outlook is neutral [3][6]. - The prices of different agricultural products are expected to have different trends in the short - term. Some may continue to be in a bottom - shock and weak pattern, while others may face price rebounds or declines in the future. For instance, short - term Dalian corn futures are expected to be in a weak shock pattern, and the price of live pigs may have a second bottom - seeking in the medium - to - long - term [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The recent rise in domestic soybeans has been driven by macro factors. As the macro - risk premium is given back, soybeans have quickly adjusted following the overall commodity atmosphere. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - market guidance [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The overall market was weak today due to the limit - down of metals. As of January 24, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 6.6%, higher than the previous week and the same period last year. Argentina is facing a high - temperature and dry situation, but rain is expected in February, which may put pressure on US soybeans. The domestic soybean crushing volume in February is expected to be about 5.2 million tons, a decrease both year - on - year and month - on - month. The short - term US soybeans and domestic soybean meal are expected to continue the bottom - shock and weak pattern [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The recent rise in oils has been driven by macro factors. As the macro - risk premium is given back, soybean oil and palm oil have quickly adjusted following the overall commodity atmosphere. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - market guidance [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The import of Australian rapeseed for crushing is 1 - 2 months later than expected. The crushing of Australian rapeseed from February to April will ease the tight supply of domestic rapeseed products, putting pressure on the recent futures prices of rapeseed products. The resumption of Sino - Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal trade is also expected. With the approaching Spring Festival, the remaining space for stocking demand is limited, and the demand outlook for rapeseed products is expected to be neutral. The futures prices of rapeseed products are expected to fluctuate in the bottom range [6]. Corn - The overall market was weak today due to the limit - down of metals, and the main corn 02603 contract fell 0.7%. The national grain sales progress is close to 60%, and the spot prices of corn in the north and at the northern ports are both declining. The Spring Festival stocking of downstream enterprises is basically over, and the trading is dull approaching the Spring Festival. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises in the morning on weekends and Monday was 316, 355, and 523 respectively, remaining stable at a low level. Short - term Dalian corn futures are expected to be in a weak shock pattern [7]. Live Pig - At the beginning of the month, the slaughter volume of breeding enterprises decreased, and the spot price of live pigs was adjusted strongly. The futures side was weak in shock, and some contracts continued to hit new lows. As the Spring Festival approaches, the industry will face accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival. It is believed that the rebound highs of live pig futures and spot prices have been reached, and in the medium - to - long - term, there is a possibility of a second bottom - seeking for pig prices, and it is expected that there will still be a low point in pig prices in the first half of next year [8]. Egg - The high - point of the pre - Spring Festival spot price of eggs driven by stocking demand has been reached, and the recent spot price of eggs has started to weaken, and it is also expected to be relatively weak during the post - Spring Festival consumption off - season. Since January, the spot price of eggs has increased significantly, which has promoted the repair of the industry's breeding profit and the repair of the replenishment sentiment. The chick - replenishment volume in January showed a significant month - on - month improvement but a slight year - on - year decline. There is still upward - repair momentum for egg prices in the first half of 2026, mainly due to the continuous decline in the in - production inventory in the first half of 2026 caused by the low replenishment volume in the second half of 2025. The futures market has already reflected the expectation of the short - term weakness of the spot market in advance, and the subsequent trading strategy is to wait for the spot low point around the Spring Festival and then allocate long positions in the egg futures contracts in the first half of 2026 [9].

来源：金十数据 2月2日，由于特朗普周末表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行"认真谈话"，释放出与该欧佩克成员国局势降温的信 号，WTI原油日内暴跌6%。由于美伊紧张局势加剧，原油此前曾触及六个月高位，WTI则处于去年9月 底以来的最高水平附近，而两份合约今日均大幅回落。分析师Sachdeva指出："近期油价的回落也受到 美元走强的加剧影响。美元走强通常会使以美元计价的石油对非美国买家而言更加昂贵，从而进一步施 压油价。" IG市场分析师Tony认为，特朗普的言论，以及有关伊朗革命卫队海军部队无意在霍尔木兹海峡进行实 弹演习的报道，都是局势降温的迹象。他表示："原油市场将此解读为退离对抗的令人鼓舞的一步，缓 解了上周涨势中积聚的地缘政治风险溢价，并引发了一轮获利回吐。" ...

| < ロ | 伦敦金现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 4880.034 | 昨结 5377.160 | 开盘 | 5390.56 | | -497.126 -9.25% | 总量(kg) 0.00 | 现手 | | | 最高价 5451.010 | 持 仓 0 | 外 盘 | | | 最低价 4682.552 | 增 仓 0 | 内 盘 | | | सेव | 五日 日K 2 周Ｋ 月K | | 更多 | | 叠加 | 均价: -- | | 盘口 | | 6071.768 | 12.92% | | 卖1 4881.973 | | | | | 买1 4880.034 | | | | | 05:59 4883.044 05.50 / 870 140 | | | 0.00% | | 05:59 4878.395 | | | | | 05:59 4882.883 | | | | | 05:59 4882.883 | | | | | 05:59 4879.196 | | | | | 05:59 4882.883 | | 4682. ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in personal gold accumulation business by major state-owned banks indicate a response to market volatility and risk management, as gold prices have experienced significant fluctuations recently [1][3][11]. Group 1: Bank Adjustments - China Construction Bank has raised the minimum amount for personal gold accumulation to 1500 yuan, effective February 2, 2026, following similar adjustments by other major banks [1][3]. - Agricultural Bank of China has implemented a risk assessment requirement for clients engaging in gold accumulation transactions, effective January 30, 2026, to enhance consumer protection [7][8]. - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has also adjusted its risk assessment criteria for clients participating in gold accumulation, requiring a balanced risk profile or higher starting January 12, 2026 [8]. Group 2: Market Trends - Gold prices have seen a significant drop, with a daily decline of over 5% on January 30, 2026, as the market begins to adjust after a period of strong price increases [9][11]. - The international gold price rose approximately 65% throughout 2025, but has started to show signs of correction in early 2026, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the current gold price increase reflects a broader change in how global risks are priced, with expectations that gold could reach 6000 USD per ounce in the long term, despite short-term volatility [12].

受美联储人事变动预期及获利回吐压力影响，贵金属市场周五遭遇剧烈抛售，金银价格从历史高位大幅回落，结束了此前势不可挡的连创纪录 行情。这一突发性逆转表明，在经历了"融涨"式的单边上行后，市场对货币政策边际变化的敏感度正显著提升。 据华尔街见闻提及，市场消息称美国总统特朗普计划提名沃什出任美联储主席，这一消息成为触发市场避险情绪逆转的关键催化剂。由于沃什 长期以鹰派立场著称，投资者迅速重新定价美联储未来的政策路径，推动美元指数走强及美债收益率攀升，直接压制了无息资产贵金属的吸引 力。 受此影响，现货黄金价格日内暴跌6%，跌至每盎司5055美元附近，现货白银跌势也十分惨烈，日内跌超13%，跌破100美元/盎司大关。 此次深幅回调引发了投资者的强烈关注：这仅仅是牛市中的一次健康调整，还是意味着地缘政治与财政不确定性推动的上涨逻辑已发生根本性 逆转？分析人士普遍认为，尽管长期驱动因素依然存在，但短期技术面极度超买与政策预期的鹰派转向，正迫使市场进入剧烈震荡的盘整期。 沃什点燃鹰派预期+政府关门缓解财政担忧 此外，Yardeni Research总裁Ed Yardeni分析称，随着民主党与共和党达成临时协议避免政府关门， ...