美银报告称，美国或海外市场今年表现强劲，明年市场波动性将加剧，但人工智能(AI)驱动股市动力持 续，亦是"K型"经济的显著特征。对美国及中国经济持乐观态度，预计经济增长将高于市场普遍预期。 关于AI泡沫即将破裂被夸大，预计明年AI投资将继续保持稳健增长。美银环球研究主管Candace Browning表示，市场对这些担忧依然存在，但其团队仍然看好经济和AI。美银十大预测： 1、美国明年 经济增长预测将高于市场预期。美国明年经济增长2.4%，主要是《大而美的法案》带来财政支持、重 新恢复的《减税与就业法案》激励措施、更友好的贸易政策、持续强劲商业投资，以及美联储减息政策 的滞后效应。 2、人工智能热潮持续，泡沫尚未出现。AI投资周期将持续，美国股市的科技板块依然处 于稳固基础。围绕数据中心、半导体産能和自动化技术的资本支出将保持稳健，不仅能提高生産力，还 将支撑企业的盈利水平。 3、新兴市场受惠更有利宏观环境。弱美元、更低的利率及较低的油价，为新 兴市场在明年继续保持良好表现提供坚实条件。 4、中国增长继续向前。将中国经济增长预测上调至高 于市场平均，预期明年经济增长4.7%，2027年增长4.5%。随着近期贸 ...

高盛宏观交易员Bobby Molavi将2026年的美股前景形容为一场"拳击赛"，市场看涨驱动力与日益增长的 看跌风险将正面交锋。 12月3日，Molavi在一份客户报告中指出，多头阵营的信心主要来自人工智能（AI）热潮和大规模的刺 激措施。他估计，仅"科技七巨头"就将为美国经济带来约6000亿美元的资本支出。此外，关于潜在的所 得税减免和2000美元刺激支票的讨论也为市场增添了动力。 这些因素共同构成了一个强大的资金面和政策面支撑。 然而，Molavi同时警告，空头力量同样不容忽视。他认为，当前股票估值已被推至极高水平，几乎没有 容错空间。更令人担忧的是，市场已变得"极度依赖"人工智能这单一主题，市场广度已恶化至过去二十 年来的最窄水平之一。 这一多空对峙的局面，预示着市场在经历了长期上涨后面临关键转折点。 多头阵营：AI与万亿流动性构筑防线 在Molavi看来，支撑2026年股市的积极因素是具体且强有力的。除了科技巨头庞大的资本支出外，一系 列宏观和微观层面的流动性支持也在集结。 他在报告中写道，支持多头观点的因素还包括：量化紧缩（QT）的结束、美国持续的财政赤字支出、 高达1.2万亿美元的2026年股票 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is likened to a boxing match, with bullish drivers like artificial intelligence and stimulus measures facing off against bearish forces such as high valuations and credit pressures [1][6]. Group 1: Bullish Factors - The S&P 500 index is set to record a double-digit gain for the third consecutive year, with the "seven tech giants" expected to inject approximately $600 billion into the U.S. economy through capital expenditures [1][6]. - Discussions around lowering income taxes and issuing $2,000 stimulus checks are also supportive of the bullish outlook [1][6]. - Additional bullish factors include the end of quantitative tightening, ongoing deficit spending, and $1.2 trillion in buyback authorizations expected by 2026 [1][6]. - Retail investors continue to enter the market and buy on dips, and there are anticipated relaxations in banking regulations and capital requirements by 2026 [1][6]. Group 2: Bearish Factors - Market valuations have been pushed to levels that leave little room for disappointment, with market breadth deteriorating to one of the narrowest levels in the past 20 years, heavily concentrated on the theme of artificial intelligence and its capital expenditures [3][8]. - Concerns about a "K-shaped economy" are rising, leading to increased pressure on certain consumers, higher default rates among low-income households, and new pressures in the private credit sector [3][8]. - The dynamics of the labor market may shift from being a driving force to a hindrance [3][8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Many Wall Street strategists expect the upward trend in the U.S. stock market to continue into 2026, with firms like Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and HSBC predicting double-digit returns supported by solid earnings and Federal Reserve rate cuts [3][8]. - Despite this optimism, there is hesitation among investors regarding bets on artificial intelligence due to ongoing concerns about valuation levels and whether significant investments in computing power will ultimately translate into profits [3][8]. Group 4: Market Behavior and Trader Sentiment - Current traders lack "muscle memory" for sustained pullbacks or corrections, having only experienced an unprecedented bull market over the past 15 years [4][9]. - This has led to a mindset where many participants believe that market bottoms are always present [4][9]. - While nothing can last indefinitely, the current market rally has persisted longer than many anticipated, rewarding those who have held on [4][9]. - If a market correction does occur, the ultimate winners are likely to be those who have previously experienced similar market conditions [4][9].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.28% to close at 25,760.73 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.68% and 1.58%, respectively [1][2]. Sector Performance - Major technology stocks and large financial stocks collectively dragged down market sentiment, with notable declines in companies like Bilibili (-3%), NetEase (-2.94%), and Alibaba (-2.17%) [4][5]. - The financial sector also faced losses, particularly in insurance stocks, with China Pacific Insurance down by 4% and China Life Insurance down by over 3% [6]. - The biopharmaceutical sector saw declines, with WuXi AppTec falling by over 3% and other major players like BeiGene and WuXi Biologics also experiencing losses [7]. Commodity and Other Stocks - In contrast, stocks in the non-ferrous metals and precious metals sectors performed well, with China Molybdenum and China Aluminum rising by over 2% [8]. - Airline stocks strengthened, with China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines both gaining over 2%, supported by a new action plan promoting the integration of cultural tourism and civil aviation [9]. Capital Flows - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 2.279 billion HKD, indicating continued interest in Hong Kong stocks from mainland investors [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustments may create opportunities for recovery in 2026, with expectations of a necessary interest rate cut in December due to rising unemployment and declining real wages [11].

Core Viewpoint - The AI-driven stock market boom is a significant feature of the "K-shaped" economy, which also increases risk levels. Concerns about an impending AI bubble burst are considered exaggerated, with expectations for steady growth in AI investment by 2026 [1] Group 1: AI and Market Dynamics - The current AI boom has not yet entered a bubble phase, with historical analysis indicating that the technology sector in the U.S. stock market remains robust [1] - A weaker dollar, declining interest rates, and low oil prices are expected to provide a solid backdrop for emerging markets' strong performance in 2026 [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The company holds an optimistic view on the two most influential economies, the U.S. and China, predicting GDP growth to exceed market expectations [1] - Earnings per share are expected to increase by 14%, while the S&P 500 index is projected to rise only 4-5%, with a year-end target of 7100 points [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Housing Market - The company anticipates the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December and will make two additional cuts in June and July of 2026 [1] - The housing market in 2026 is expected to be a focal point, with performance dependent on Federal Reserve policies, leaning towards an upward risk [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on December 3, with the Hang Seng Index falling to 25,980.89 points, down 114.16 points, a decline of 0.44% [1][9] - The Hang Seng Technology Index reported a decrease to 5,595.53 points, down 28.51 points, a decline of 0.51% [3][13] New Listings - Two new stocks were listed on the same day: - LeMo Technology (HK02539) opened over 60% higher, later increasing to a peak of 72.3 HKD, representing a 70% rise. The company operates shared massage equipment in high-traffic public areas across China [5][11] - Jinyan Kaolin New Materials (HK02693) opened 27.4% higher, reaching a maximum of 9.8 HKD. The company specializes in the mining, processing, and sales of coal series kaolin, being a large-scale and standardized producer in China [5][11] Sector Performance - Among the constituents of the Hang Seng Technology Index, NetEase fell over 2%, while Alibaba and Bilibili dropped over 1%. Automotive stocks continued to decline, with NIO and XPeng down over 3%, BYD down over 1%, and Li Auto showing a slight rebound [5][11] Market Outlook - According to Industrial Securities, the market style is expected to be balanced from December to January, with large-cap, low-valuation, and cyclical styles likely to dominate. Consumer sectors such as home appliances, food and beverage, textiles, and social services are anticipated to perform well during this period due to expectations of increased growth policies ahead of the new year [12] - Guosen Securities highlighted the impact of the "K-shaped economy" in the U.S. and the necessity of addressing rising unemployment rates, suggesting that a rate cut in December is essential. The U.S. dollar index is expected to weaken in early 2026, which would benefit the valuation recovery of emerging markets [6][12]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.10%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.24%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.33% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up by 0.62%, UK's FTSE 100 up by 0.24%, France's CAC40 up by 0.29%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 0.65% [1] - WTI crude oil is down by 0.19% at $59.21 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down by 0.30% at $62.98 per barrel [1] Economic Insights - Strong online sales on Cyber Monday reached $17.3 billion, indicating consumer resilience despite economic concerns [2] - The overall retail spending increase is driven more by rising prices than by an increase in sales volume, highlighting a K-shaped economic recovery where wealthier consumers and lower-income groups behave differently [2] Company News - MongoDB reported a 19% year-over-year revenue increase to $628 million, significantly exceeding market expectations, with its core product, Atlas, growing by 30% [4] - Apple faces increased risks of collective lawsuits in the EU following a ruling by the European Court of Justice, which allows users to file claims in the Netherlands [5] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced new partnerships during its annual re:Invent conference, focusing on cloud security and sustainability [5] - Michael Burry criticized Tesla for being "absurdly overvalued," citing concerns over stock dilution due to executive compensation [6] - Marvell Technology is in talks to acquire Celestial AI for over $5 billion, aiming to address memory bottlenecks in AI computing [6]

盘前市场动向 1. 12月2日(周二)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.10%，标普500指数期货涨0.24%，纳指期货涨 0.33%。 | 疆 伦敦布伦特原油 | 2026年2月 | 62.98 | 63.36 | 62.86 | -0.19 | -0.30% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ■ WTI原油 | 2026年1月 | 59.21 | 59.67 | 59.09 | -0.11 | -0.19% | 市场消息 QT结束叠加美联储鸽派立场!"华尔街神算子"乐观展望：标普500年底前剑指7300点新高。有"华尔街神算子"之称的金融市场研 究机构Fundstrat联合创始人兼研究主管Tom Lee预计，12月美股将表现强劲，标普500指数到年底可能攀升至7300点高位，这意 味着较当前水平上涨10%。Tom Lee表示："标普500指数达到7000点仅需上涨2%。从当前点位来看，我认为该指数12月可能实 现5%、甚至10%的涨幅。"他指出，美联储结束量化紧缩(QT)将成为市场上涨的主要推动力。他将当前形势与2019年 ...

迈进年终"剁手购物季"，美国消费市场"冰火两重天"。 Adobe Analytics数据显示，美国消费者"黑色星期五"当天线上支出达到创纪录的118亿美元，同比增长 9.1%。尽管美国消费者今年"黑色星期五"支出高于去年，但价格上涨抑制了需求，结账时购买的商品数 量减少。实体店客流相对冷清，由于持续通胀、贸易带来不确定性以及劳动力市场疲软的情况下，消费 者担心超支。 根据Mastercard SpendingPulse的数据，美国"黑色星期五"零售销售（不含汽车）同比增长4.1%，高于去 年同期的3.4%。这些数据未经通胀调整，涵盖了线上和线下购物。实体店销售额仅增长1.7%，高于去 年同期水平。线上销售额增长10.4%，低于去年同期增幅。 Adobe还预测，传统上作为线上促销重要节点的"网络星期一"将再次成为本购物季线上消费额最高的一 天，预计当天线上销售额将达到142亿美元，较去年增长6.3%。电子产品预计折扣最深，最高达七折， 服装和电脑也将有大幅优惠。 但需要警惕的是，支出增长主要来自价格上涨而非销量提升，消费者倾向于降级消费并优先购买必需 品，火爆的数据背后是愈发脆弱的消费者。 假日购物季释放多重信 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the contrasting dynamics in the U.S. consumer market during the holiday shopping season, with record online spending but concerns over the quality of growth due to inflation and reduced purchasing volume [1][5][10] - Adobe Analytics reported that online spending on Black Friday reached a record $11.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, while in-store sales saw a modest growth of 1.7% [1][5] - The average selling price increased by 7%, leading to a decrease in the number of items purchased per transaction, which fell by 2% year-on-year [5][8] Group 2 - High-income consumers are driving luxury and high-end product sales, while middle and low-income households are facing pressures from inflation and a weak job market [5][10] - The use of AI-driven shopping tools surged, with a reported 805% increase in AI-driven visits to retail websites compared to the previous year, indicating a shift in consumer behavior towards online shopping [6][10] - The holiday shopping season reflects a K-shaped economic recovery, where spending patterns diverge significantly between high-income and low-income consumers [5][10] Group 3 - The overall consumer spending environment is challenged by high inflation, rising unemployment rates, and elevated interest rates, which are expected to suppress future consumption growth [8][9][10] - Despite the resilience shown in short-term consumer spending, long-term growth potential may weaken due to declining purchasing power and a cooling labor market [10][12] - The Federal Reserve faces a dual challenge of managing inflation while addressing rising unemployment, leading to uncertainty in monetary policy direction [12][13]