进入2026年，全球宏观市场正在经历一场深刻的范式转变。资深分析师David Woo认为，面对中期选举 的巨大压力，特朗普政府正展现出不惜一切代价扭转局面的决心，这将重塑从能源到黄金的全球资产定 价逻辑。 David Woo表示，为弥补严重的民调劣势并避免在国会失去多数席位，特朗普政府的政策重心已全面转 向赢得"可负担性"辩论。这意味着2026年的终极交易主题将从单纯的再通胀转向激进的通缩手段——尤 其是通过强力掌控能源资源来大幅压低油价，目标是在大选前将汽油价格降至关键心理防线。这一战略 不仅意在平抑通胀，更意在通过改善中产阶级生活成本来稳固选票。 而特朗普此前对委内瑞拉的动作标志着战后建立的基于规则的国际秩序实质性终结。这一举措并非出于 意识形态考量，而是为了直接掌控能源资源，以期通过大幅增加供应来赢得国内的"可负担性论证"。特 朗普的目标是在秋季前将汽油价格压低至每加仑2.25美元，这将对原油市场造成剧烈冲击，预计油价将 下探至40至50美元区间。 Woo警告，随着美国放弃作为国际体系的传统担保人角色，全球地缘不安全感将急剧上升，这为黄金提 供了强劲支撑，并利好国防工业。相反，新兴市场股票将面临估值重估 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy has shown resilience, with high-end consumers continuing to spend, indicating a long-standing K-shaped economic recovery in the country [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Bostic highlighted the ongoing strength of high-end consumer spending [1] - The concept of a K-shaped economy suggests that different segments of the economy are recovering at different rates, with some benefiting significantly while others lag behind [1]

Core Insights - The significant rise in productivity is a key factor in understanding the current trends in the U.S. economy [1][4] - Companies are heavily investing in artificial intelligence while slowing down hiring, leading to the fastest productivity growth in two years [1][4] - The GDP growth is no longer reliant on a large labor input, allowing economic growth without increased labor effort [1][4] Productivity and Economic Growth - The annualized growth rate of output per hour for U.S. workers reached 4.9% in the third quarter, matching the peak level of 2023 [1][4] - Over the past six months, the average productivity increase has been 4.5%, which is considered "unquestionably good news" [1][4] Employment and Labor Market Dynamics - Despite a GDP growth rate of 4.3%, job growth remains weak [5][6] - Companies are signaling a halt in hiring while still achieving business growth, indicating a potential economic and social dilemma [7] - The productivity gains may exacerbate the weakness in the job market, widening the K-shaped economic divide [7] - The trend of companies achieving growth while reducing staff may become a new norm if AI efficiency leads to lower labor costs and higher profits [7] Economic Outlook - The continuous support of productivity for economic growth suggests that previous recession predictions may not materialize [7] - However, there is concern that American workers are being marginalized as companies limit new hiring to control costs [7]

Core Viewpoint - The core survival principle for 2026 is summarized as "assets are king," emphasizing the importance of asset management in a complex economic landscape [2]. Group 1: Economic Landscape - The global economy is described as being in a "delicate eye of the storm," with significant volatility expected due to geopolitical uncertainties and structural contradictions [2]. - The K-shaped economic recovery is highlighted, where high-income individuals benefit from stock and real estate markets, while low-income groups face rising living costs, leading to a disparity in economic experiences [7][8]. - This K-shaped development is not only present in the U.S. but also in Japan and Europe, where ordinary citizens feel the pinch of rising prices despite macroeconomic improvements [7]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to undergo significant leadership changes in 2026, which may lead to shifts in monetary policy, particularly under political pressure for lower interest rates [11]. - There is a prediction that the Fed may abandon its inflation target and lower policy rates to support the economy, potentially leading to a return to quantitative easing [11][12]. Group 3: AI and Technology - The concept of an "AI inflection point" is introduced, indicating a critical moment for the technology sector, with concerns about overinvestment and the sustainability of business models [15]. - The potential for a significant adjustment in the AI sector is noted, with a focus on companies that can translate technology into real commercial value [15][16]. - Differences in AI development paths between the U.S. and China are highlighted, with the U.S. focusing on market-driven models and China leveraging government support for broader applications [16]. Group 4: Fiscal Capitalism - The term "fiscal capitalism" is used to describe the current economic model, where government fiscal policies drive economic activity, often leading to excessive credit issuance [19]. - The rise in gold and silver prices is interpreted as a market response to distrust in fiat currencies, with expectations for continued demand due to structural factors [20]. Group 5: Geopolitical Dynamics - A cautious optimism is expressed regarding geopolitical risks in 2026, with a shift in U.S. foreign policy towards "hemisphericism," focusing on domestic issues and regional control [22]. - This strategic shift may reduce immediate geopolitical tensions but could create new challenges in energy pricing and supply chains, particularly affecting relations with China [22].

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is entering a delicate phase in 2026, characterized by asset inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on the concept of "asset supremacy" as a survival strategy [4][14]. Economic Trends - The current global economic shape is described as "K-shaped," indicating a divergence where high-income groups benefit from asset markets while low-income groups face rising living costs, leading to a "no job growth" scenario despite strong macroeconomic indicators [5][6]. - This K-shaped development is expected to deepen in 2026, with political extremism becoming normalized as economic growth fails to benefit the lower strata of society [6]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to undergo significant leadership changes in 2026, which may lead to a shift in policy thinking, particularly under political pressure for lower interest rates [7][8]. - There is a possibility that the Fed may maintain or even restart quantitative easing to address fiscal deficits and prevent a bond market collapse, indicating a departure from traditional monetary policy [8]. AI Sector Insights - The AI sector is at a critical juncture, with concerns about overinvestment and the sustainability of business models. A significant adjustment in the AI industry is likely in 2026, transitioning from a focus on high-level infrastructure to practical applications [9][10]. - The differences in AI development paths between the U.S. and China are notable, with the U.S. focusing on stock market-driven models and China leveraging government support for open-source applications [10]. Fiscal Capitalism Observations - The global economy is shifting towards "fiscal capitalism," where government fiscal outputs drive economic activity, leading to excessive credit issuance and a loss of trust in fiat currencies, as evidenced by the rise in gold and silver prices [11]. - Commodities like gold and silver are expected to maintain their value due to structural long-term trends, with silver benefiting from industrial demand linked to AI and data center construction [11]. Geopolitical Landscape - Geopolitical risks are expected to shift rather than diminish, with a focus on "Western Hemisphereism" under Trump's potential return to power, which may lead to a reconfiguration of U.S. foreign policy and energy strategies [12]. Investment Strategy - The overarching investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes the importance of holding "hard currencies" and core assets that can withstand credit risks and technological cycles, as traditional savings may not keep pace with inflation [14].

Economic Overview - In 2025, the US GDP is expected to grow slightly above 2%, with a projected range of 2.1% to 2.3% for the year[9] - The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.1%, down from 2.8% in 2024[9] Resilience Factors - The rapid adjustment of Trump's tariff policy led to a quick dissipation of its negative impact on economic growth, with no significant effect on overall inflation[16] - US consumer spending remained resilient, benefiting from a wealth effect, contributing approximately 25% to consumption growth in 2025[21] - AI-related investments surged, contributing about 1 percentage point to GDP growth in 2025, up from 0.3 percentage points in previous years[23] Structural Weaknesses - The job market showed significant cooling, with the unemployment rate rising from 4.0% in January to 4.6% in November 2025, the highest level since September 2021[13] - Consumer confidence declined sharply, with inflation expectations rising to 4.2% by December 2025, significantly higher than the previous year's 2.8%[30] - The top 10% of income earners contributed nearly 50% of total consumption, highlighting increasing income inequality and a "K-shaped" economic recovery[32] Investment Trends - Traditional sectors like residential and non-residential construction saw a decline, with residential investment shrinking for three consecutive quarters in 2025[35] - The average fixed mortgage rate remained above 6%, hindering recovery in the housing market despite the Federal Reserve's rate cuts[35]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its outlook for **2026**. - A **K-shaped growth pattern** is identified, where the new economy thrives while the old economy and domestic demand struggle [1][5][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Positive Shift in Investor Narrative**: 2025 saw a significant improvement in how investors view China, particularly in the new economy and supply side [1][4]. - **K-Shaped Growth**: The economy is experiencing a bifurcation, with industrial production up by **11.5%** compared to 2023, while domestic demand remains weak, particularly in the property sector [8][5]. - **Fiscal and Monetary Policy**: The base case for 2026 includes approximately **RMB1 trillion** in additional fiscal stimulus, **20bps** rate cuts, and **50bps** RRR cuts, with a GDP growth forecast of **4.7%** [1][6][51]. - **Consumer Confidence**: Consumer sentiment remains low, with retail sales growth at around **3.6%** for 2024-25, indicating a disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and micro-level confidence [5][9]. - **Trade Surplus**: A historic trade surplus exceeding **US$1 trillion** was noted, driven by high-tech exports, despite ongoing tariff disputes [5][8]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Investment Trends**: Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) is expected to grow by **2.0%** in 2026, with a significant divergence between the new and old economies [68]. - **Exchange Rate Outlook**: The RMB is expected to experience "managed appreciation," with forecasts suggesting a USDCNY rate of approximately **6.8** in 6-12 months [1][75]. - **Policy Continuity**: The report anticipates a continuation of existing policies without major breakthroughs, indicating a cautious approach to economic management [43][51]. - **Consumption Rebalancing**: While there are expectations for consumption to contribute **2.8ppts** to growth in 2026, the actual impact may be limited due to structural issues [63][62]. Conclusion - The Chinese economy is projected to face challenges in 2026, with a K-shaped recovery likely to persist. Policymakers are expected to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on incremental changes rather than aggressive reforms. The outlook for consumer confidence and domestic demand remains subdued, while external factors and the new economy will continue to play a crucial role in shaping economic performance [1][61][68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the stock market in 2026, with a global economic growth forecast of 2.8%, higher than the market consensus of 2.5% [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the macroeconomic environment in 2026 will remain favorable for the stock market, with strong growth expected across all regions. The U.S. economy is projected to grow at 2.6%, surpassing the consensus of 2.0%, driven by reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and a loose financial environment [1][2]. - The report highlights the importance of companies leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance productivity, indicating that firms integrating AI into their operations are likely to see improved profit margins and cost reductions [5][9]. - The report discusses the ongoing "K-shaped economy," where low-income consumers continue to face challenges, while high-income groups experience significant wealth growth. This disparity is expected to persist into 2026, affecting consumer spending patterns [9][12]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Forecast - Global economic growth is projected at 2.8% for 2026, with the U.S. leading at 2.6% [1][2]. - Various regions, including emerging markets like China and India, are also expected to show robust growth, with China at 4.9% and India at 7.0% [2]. Investment Themes - Focus on companies utilizing AI to boost productivity, with a specific index (GSXUPROD) tracking non-tech firms that have integrated AI into their workflows [5][9]. - The report suggests a strategy of shorting low-income non-essential consumer goods companies due to their underperformance amid economic pressures faced by low-income consumers [9][12]. AI Investment Strategy - The report categorizes AI investments into "high-profit AI" and "vulnerable AI," aiming to differentiate between robust and weak assets based on financial health and cash flow resilience [14][12].

Group 1: PMI Trends - December manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, up from 49.2% in November, indicating a return to expansion[8] - High-tech manufacturing PMI reached 52.5%, a significant increase of 2.4 percentage points from November, marking a new high for 2025[8] - Construction PMI increased to 52.8% in December from 49.6% in November, driven by favorable weather and policy support[8] Group 2: Export Dynamics - New export orders PMI rose from 47.6% to 49% in December, suggesting potential recovery in export demand[8] - Optimistic scenario indicates a rebound in U.S. consumer goods import demand, supported by textile and electronic exports[8] - Pessimistic scenario highlights potential "export rush" due to Mexico's tariff adjustments and EU carbon tariffs, impacting specific sectors[4] Group 3: Structural Disparities - Large enterprises showed significant PMI recovery, while small enterprises experienced a decline, indicating a mismatch in export capabilities[4] - Supply chain congestion in consumer goods sectors, particularly textiles and electronics, reflects urgent production demands[4] - The disparity in PMI recovery across different enterprise sizes suggests varying capacities for "export rush" activities[4]

高盛交易部门将2026年美股投资聚焦于AI应用的深化阶段，从基础设施投资转向实际生产力提升。这 一转变反映出市场在经历三年AI狂热后，开始更加审慎地评估哪些公司能够真正将技术转化为盈利能 力。 据高盛衍生品策略师Brian Garrett总结的三大主题交易策略包括：做多采用AI提升生产率的公司、做空 面向低收入群体的可选消费品公司，以及做多优质AI股票同时做空脆弱AI股票的配对交易。 高盛交易团队表示，尽管2025年GDP增长强劲，但劳动力市场表现疲弱，尤其是夏季月份出现负就业增 长，失业率从6月的4.1%升至11月的4.6%。K型经济特征持续显著，低收入群体继续承受高物价压力， 而高收入群体资产财富大幅增长。 高盛推荐的低收入消费者非必需品公司指数在2025年表现落后于标普500和标普493指数。该行预计这一 主题将在2026年延续，因为低收入消费者在负担能力危机中继续挣扎。 分析指出，这些策略旨在捕捉美国经济"K型复苏"和AI应用分化的市场机遇，也反映了AI技术从投资 阶段向应用阶段的转变，以及市场对AI相关投资日益严格的筛选标准。 高盛首席市场策略师Tony Pasquariello在年度首份报告中指出 ...