Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 996.85 tons of gold as of September 24, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3.72 tons from the previous trading day, indicating profit-taking by investors at high price levels [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of September 24, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were 996.85 tons, down 3.72 tons from the previous day [5]. - The decrease in gold ETF holdings marks the end of a previous trend of continuous increases, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On September 24, gold prices peaked at just below $3780 per ounce before falling to a low of $3717.46, closing at $3735.88, a drop of $28.05 or 0.75% [5]. - The price drop followed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, alongside a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields [5][6]. Group 3: Market Influences - Investors are closely monitoring the core PCE price index report to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, with market expectations for two 25 basis point cuts in October and December at probabilities of 93% and 79%, respectively [6]. - The potential government shutdown due to legislative gridlock adds to market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook for gold, with the RSI showing a decline and prices expected to oscillate between $3750 and $3700, awaiting new market catalysts [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $3791 (historical high) and $3800 (psychological level), while support is noted at $3700, with a breach potentially leading to deeper corrections [7].

摘要今日周四（9月25日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3740美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 3735.38美元/盎司，跌幅0.04%，最高上探3751.09美元/盎司，最低触及3733.29美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周四（9月25日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3740美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报3735.38美 元/盎司，跌幅0.04%，最高上探3751.09美元/盎司，最低触及3733.29美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线 偏向震荡走势。 就俄乌冲突而言，美俄两国外长于纽约举行会晤，双方基于此前阿拉斯加"普特会"达成的共识，再次重 申通过和平途径解决乌克兰危机的立场，并展现出协调行动以消除冲突根源的意愿。尽管俄罗斯明确反 对乌克兰及部分欧洲国家延长战事的政策主张，但会谈整体氛围仍透露出外交沟通渠道正在重建的迹 象。值得注意的是，特朗普近期对乌态度发生显著转变——从半年前质疑乌方军事优势的言论，转为在 国际场合公开赞扬乌军表现并讥讽俄方战略，这一措辞变化虽未伴随实质政策调整，却被解读为向普京 施压以推动协议达成的策略性举动，客观上有助于缓和紧张态势。 欧盟与美国就关税问题达成 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market expects the Fed to reduce the number of interest rate cuts in 2026 from 3 to 2, which may lead to short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, considering the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, precious metal prices may be supported in the medium and long term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 856.27 yuan/gram, with a change of 6.69 yuan from the previous day and 31.74 yuan from the previous week. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3727.50 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 28.40 dollars from the previous day. London gold spot price was 3761.60 dollars/ounce, and SPDR gold ETF holding decreased by 3.72 tons [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 9811.00 yuan/ten - gram, and the closing price of spot沪银T + D was 9811.00 yuan/ten - gram. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 44.12 dollars/ounce, and London silver spot price was 43.88 dollars/ounce [1] - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: INE crude oil was 482.30 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent oil was 68.26 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 63.65 dollars/barrel. The dollar index was 97.2351, and major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and UK FTSE 100 had different changes [1] Important Information - Bessent doesn't understand why Powell "backed down" and urges a 100 - 150 basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year. He is interviewing 11 candidates for the Fed chair. The US Treasury is preparing to buy Argentine dollar bonds and is discussing a 20 - billion - dollar currency swap line. The US officially announced the implementation of the US - EU trade agreement, reducing the EU car tariff to 15% from August 1st [1] Trading Strategy - Some high - cost long positions should take profits at high prices, and then wait for price pull - backs to establish long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3400 - 3500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3840 - 4065 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 880 - 930 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 45.3 - 47.5 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9500 - 9700 yuan/ten - gram and the resistance level around 10500 - 11350 yuan/ten - gram [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold and silver prices are experiencing a sustained increase due to rising geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with gold reaching a historical high of 860 CNY per gram and silver at 10,397 CNY per kilogram [1] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are seen as a primary driver for gold and silver prices, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which are elevating global risk aversion [1][2] - Central banks globally continue to maintain a net buying stance on gold, with a net increase of 10 tons in official gold reserves, and China's central bank increasing its reserves by 1.7 tons, marking ten consecutive months of growth [2] Group 2 - The market sentiment remains optimistic for precious metals in the medium to long term, although there are indications of potential technical corrections due to recent price surges [1][3] - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach during the upcoming National Day holiday, with recommendations to hold a small number of gold positions while liquidating silver holdings [1][3] - The recent inflow of 5.5 billion USD into global physical gold ETFs indicates a renewed interest from investors in North America and Europe, despite a negative shift in demand from Asia [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to increased market concerns about supply tightening, especially the return of geopolitical risk premiums. The attacks on Russian refining and export facilities by Ukraine led to concerns about supply disruptions, verified by the strengthening of diesel crack spreads and traders' bets on price increases. Additionally, the unexpected decline in US crude inventories and lower gasoline and distillate inventories supported the demand side. The short - term support for oil prices has increased, but marginal supply increments will limit the rebound amplitude. It is recommended to conduct unilateral band operations, with WTI in the range of [60, 66], Brent in [64, 69], and SC in [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to expand after volatility increases [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Supply is expected to be abundant due to negative short - term operations and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. Demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants' commissioning is delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. PXN is expected to compress, but short - term prices may be supported by geopolitical events and pre - holiday demand. Strategies include short - term long on PX11 or shorting after a rebound [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to shrink as new plant commissioning is delayed and maintenance plans are in place. Pre - holiday restocking demand supports the short - term basis, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Absolute prices may be supported by geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term long on TA or shorting after a rebound, and rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Short - term imports are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decline. However, the terminal market is weak, and the basis fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, supply will increase as new plants start up and demand seasonally declines, leading to inventory accumulation. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 [7]. - **Short Fiber**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the peak season but with limited new orders. Prices are supported at low levels but lack upward momentum, following raw material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 [7]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply in September is lower than expected due to typhoons, and low prices and pre - holiday restocking demand support prices and processing fees. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - Urea futures rebounded on September 24 due to expectations of short - term supply contraction and technical repair. Shanxi Tianze plans to shut down some large - scale plants on October 7, which supports market sentiment. Although spot demand is weak, export orders provide some support [14][16]. Methanol - This week, both port and inland inventories decreased, partly due to typhoons in South China. Supply in the inland area is at a high level, and although unplanned maintenance has increased, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inventory pattern in the inland area is healthy, supporting prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral. The disk fluctuates between trading the reality of high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the long - term [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is expected to remain high as some plants resume production or start producing, and there are maintenance plans. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, and there are many maintenance plans for downstream plants in September - October. However, continuous de - stocking at ports may provide some support. Prices are driven by geopolitical and macro factors in the short - term. Strategies include BZ2603 following styrene and crude oil fluctuations [23]. - **Styrene**: Downstream demand is fair due to peak - season demand and pre - holiday stocking, but it is mainly for rigid needs. Supply is expected to decrease as overseas plants are under maintenance and exports are expected to increase. Port inventories are accumulating, pressuring prices. Strategies include shorting EB11 on price rebounds and widening the spread of EB11 - BZ11 [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The market is weak. Supply is high, and the decline in alumina prices has squeezed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Inventory in North China is rising, while in East China, it is falling due to tight supply and non - aluminum rigid demand. In Shandong, prices may continue to decline before the National Day holiday. Short - selling positions can be held [27]. - **PVC**: The market is also weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is expected to increase as many plants finish maintenance next week. Demand is limited as downstream product start - up rates are low, and buyers are resistant to high prices. Cost support is provided by rising calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the September - October peak season [27]. Polyolefins - **PP**: Production has decreased recently due to heavy losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and lower inventory. - **PE**: Maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually increasing. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and the supply rhythm and import offers need to be monitored. There is pressure on inventory accumulation for the 01 contract [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 25, Brent rose 2.48% to $69.31/barrel, WTI fell 0.38% to $64.74/barrel, and SC fell 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, increased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 decreased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending September 19, 2025, US crude production increased to 1350.1万桶/日, refinery utilization rate decreased to 93%, commercial crude inventory decreased by 60.7万桶, and gasoline and distillate inventories also decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) rose to $69.31/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose to $606/ton, etc. [7]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX rose to $812/ton, PX - naphtha spread decreased to 120 [7]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA East - China spot price rose to 4525 yuan/ton, TA01 - TA05 spread decreased [7]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG port inventory decreased to 700,000 tons, and the arrival forecast decreased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: POY150/48 price decreased to 6600 yuan/ton, and polyester bottle - chip price rose to 5804 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - **Futures**: On September 24, the 01 contract rose 0.90% to 1673 yuan/ton, the 05 contract rose 0.64% to 1724 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract rose 0.63% to 1745 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot**: Shandong (small - particle) urea price remained at 1610 yuan/ton, and FOB China (small - particle) remained at $418/ton [15]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily production increased to 19.56 million tons on September 26, and the production start - up rate increased to 83.59% [16]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2351 yuan/ton on September 24, up 0.34%. The spread between MA2509 and MA2601 widened. The basis of Taicang decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory decreased to 31.994%, port inventory decreased to 149.2 million tons, and social inventory decreased to 181.2% [19]. - **Start - up Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased slightly, while downstream external - MTO device start - up rate increased [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: CFR China pure benzene rose to $726/ton, and the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased. Port inventory decreased [23]. - **Styrene**: Styrene East - China spot price rose to 6910 yuan/ton, and the basis of EB10 decreased [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On September 24, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price remained at 2500 yuan/ton, and East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained at 4740 yuan/ton [27]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry start - up rate decreased to 85.4%, and PVC total start - up rate decreased to 75.4% [27]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry start - up rate increased to 83.7%, and PVC downstream product start - up rates increased slightly [27]. Polyolefins - **Futures**: On September 24, L2601 closed at 7142 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and PP2601 closed at 6877 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [31]. - **Spot**: East - China PP拉丝 spot price remained at 6720 yuan/ton, and North - China LDPE film - grade spot price rose to 7070 yuan/ton [31]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased to 45.8 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased to 52.0 million tons [31]. - **Start - up Rates**: PE device start - up rate increased to 80.4%, and PP device start - up rate decreased to 74.9% [31].

证券时报记者 沈宁 8月底以来，在地缘政治风险升温与美联储降息预期的双重推动下，黄金、白银期货价格开启持续 上涨行情，金价不断刷新历史纪录，银价也逐步逼近历史高点。眼下国内"十一"国庆假期临近，尽管市 场对于贵金属中长期走势的乐观预期未改，但已有不少机构开始提示长假持仓风险。 截至9月24日下午收盘，上期所黄金期货主力AU2512合约收报860元/克，当日上涨1.03%，收盘价 再创历史新高。白银期货主力AG2513合约收报10397元/千克，当日上涨0.83%，期价同样创出上市以来 新高。海外贵金属市场延续较强势头，截至北京时间下午17：30，伦敦现货金报价在3768美元/盎司附 近。 "美联储降息周期已然开启，且市场预期年内还将继续降息两次，这为金银价格构成了核心驱动 力。地缘局势方面，中东冲突持续推升全球避险情绪。此外，全球央行的持续购金需求以及白银旺盛的 工业应用前景，共同为贵金属市场提供了价格支撑。" 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，"不过，贵金 属价格在连续冲高后本身存在技术性回调压力。近期多位美联储官员释放鹰派信号，若鹰派言论或风险 事件引发多头获利了结，上述因素形成共振，可能加剧短期波动。" 谈 ...

8月底以来，在地缘政治风险升温与美联储降息预期的双重推动下，黄金、白银期货价格开启持续上涨 行情，金价不断刷新历史纪录，银价也逐步逼近历史高点。眼下国内"十一"国庆假期临近，尽管市场对 于贵金属中长期走势的乐观预期未改，但已有不少机构开始提示长假持仓风险。"美联储降息周期已然 开启，且市场预期年内还将继续降息两次，这为金银价格构成了核心驱动力。地缘局势方面，中东冲突 持续推升全球避险情绪。此外，全球央行的持续购金需求以及白银旺盛的工业应用前景，共同为贵金属 市场提供了价格支撑。" 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，"不过，贵金属价格在连续冲高后本身存在 技术性回调压力。近期多位美联储官员释放鹰派信号，若鹰派言论或风险事件引发多头获利了结，上述 因素形成共振，可能加剧短期波动。"（人民财讯） ...

Core Viewpoint - Since late August, gold and silver futures prices have been on a continuous upward trend due to rising geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with gold prices reaching historical records and silver prices approaching historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle has begun, with market expectations for two more rate cuts within the year, serving as a core driver for gold and silver prices [1] - Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are increasing global risk aversion, further supporting precious metal prices [1] - Continuous gold purchasing demand from global central banks and strong industrial application prospects for silver are providing price support in the precious metals market [1] Group 2: Market Risks - Despite the optimistic long-term outlook for precious metals, several institutions have begun to highlight the risks associated with holding positions during the upcoming National Day holiday [1] - Following a series of price increases, there is inherent technical correction pressure on precious metal prices [1] - Recent hawkish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials may trigger profit-taking among bullish investors, potentially increasing short-term volatility [1]

Group 1 - The oil market is experiencing a significant surge, with WTI crude oil rising 2.5% to surpass $64 per barrel, driven by geopolitical risks and potential supply disruptions [3] - Copper prices have also seen a notable increase, with London copper rising 3.6% to reach $10,336 per ton, influenced by supply interruptions at Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia [3] - In contrast, gold prices have declined by 1.11% to $3,722 per ounce, primarily due to a strengthening dollar and reduced demand for safe-haven assets following strong U.S. new home sales data [3] Group 2 - The current market dynamics reflect two main themes: geopolitical risks driving up prices of strategic resources like oil, and the long-term demand for green metals like copper supported by the energy transition [3] - For medium to long-term investors, it is suggested to focus on commodities with solid fundamental support, such as copper, which is essential for electric vehicles and grid construction [3] - Investors are advised to consider indirect participation through stocks or funds related to these sectors to mitigate the high risks associated with direct futures trading [4]

Group 1 - Since late August, geopolitical risks and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have driven a continuous rise in gold and silver futures prices, with gold prices reaching historical highs and silver prices approaching historical peaks [1] - As of September 24, the main gold futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 860 CNY per gram, up 1.03%, marking a new historical high, while the main silver futures contract closed at 10,397 CNY per kilogram, up 0.83%, also reaching a new high since its listing [1] - The Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are key drivers for gold and silver prices, alongside strong demand from global central banks and industrial applications for silver [1][2] Group 2 - Despite high gold prices, central banks globally continue to maintain a net buying stance, with a net increase of 10 tons in official gold reserves, although the pace has slowed compared to previous months [2] - In August, global physical gold ETFs saw inflows of 5.5 billion USD, marking three consecutive months of inflows, with North American and European funds leading the growth [2] - Analysts suggest that while the long-term outlook for precious metals remains bullish, short-term adjustments may occur due to the upcoming National Day holiday in China, with recommendations for investors to hold light positions during the holiday [3]