1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, last week there were more changes in PTA plants, but the downstream polyester load also decreased. The supply - demand pattern of PTA itself changed little. The futures market followed the cost side to rise significantly. The spot basis loosened. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment and the changes of upstream and downstream plants [6]. - For MEG, last week the entry of ethylene glycol ships into tanks was smooth. It is expected that the visible inventory will still increase at the beginning of next week. Fundamentally, ethylene glycol has been accumulating inventory in the near - term, but the supply - demand structure will improve from March. This week, polyester plants implemented moderate production cuts, and the monthly average load was revised down. The overseas supply of ethylene glycol will be further squeezed, and it will gradually be reflected in the import volume from February. In reality, the high port inventory and the continuous accumulation situation will restrict the rebound height of ethylene glycol. It is expected that the price center of ethylene glycol will be range - bound in the near future, and there is certain buying support at low levels [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Hints - **PTA**: - On Friday, the mainstream of December goods was traded at a discount of 65 to the 05 contract, with the price negotiation range at 5100 - 5250. January goods were traded at a discount of 60 to the 05 contract, and February goods at a discount of 50. December warehouse receipts were traded at around 05 - 73. The mainstream spot basis on that day was 05 - 65. The spot price was 5170, and the 05 contract basis was - 110, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The PTA factory inventory was 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract increased [6][7]. - **MEG**: - On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was widely adjusted, and the market negotiation was average. The night - session of ethylene glycol opened higher and then weakened, with weak buying sentiment. In the morning, the ethylene glycol market was narrowly sorted at a low level, and the spot was negotiated at a discount of 160 - 152 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the afternoon, the market fluctuated upward, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. At the end of the session, next - week's spot was negotiated at a discount of 146 - 148 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market fluctuated upward. In the morning, the recent shipments were negotiated at around 440 - 442 US dollars/ton, and the buyers in the market were cautious. In the afternoon, the negotiation of January shipments rebounded to around 448 - 450 US dollars/ton, and the trading was stalemate. The domestic and foreign market transaction negotiation ranges were 3632 - 3700 yuan/ton and 440 - 448 US dollars/ton respectively. The spot price was 3670, and the 05 contract basis was - 176, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The total inventory in the East China region was 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons from the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract decreased [8][9]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Device Changes**: - A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has stopped for maintenance as planned recently and is expected to restart around the end of January. - The 1.1 - million - ton Ineos and 2.2 - million - ton Yisheng Ningbo plants have restarted. - A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has restarted after heating up. It was shut down for maintenance at the end of November. - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Ningbo is expected to resume operation on the 24th. It was shut down for maintenance in November [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including data such as EG production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory [14]. - **Price and Profit Data**: - It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers from December 25 to December 26, 2025, as well as the profit data of different production methods of PTA and MEG and polyester products [15]. - **Historical Data Charts**: There are multiple historical data charts, including the price, production profit, start - up rate, inventory, and spread data of PTA, MEG, PET bottle chips, polyester fibers, etc., covering the time range from 2020 to 2025 [18][21][24][27][28][32][35][39][42][45][47][50][52][54][57][59][61][62][63][66][68][70][71][73].

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a weekly hot - spot preview for the week of December 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Weekly Key Focus - On December 31 at 03:00, the Fed will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting [2][10] - On December 31 at 09:30, China's official December manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI and composite PMI will be announced [2][11] - On December 31 at 09:45, Markit will release China's December SPGI manufacturing PMI [2][12] - On December 31 at 21:30, the US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending December 22 [2][13] - US President Trump may appoint a new Fed Chairman in the first week of January 2026 [2][15] Group 3: Daily Hot - spot Details December 29 - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will announce the US seasonally - adjusted pending home sales index for November at 23:00, with an expected monthly rate of 1% (previous 1.9%) [3] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending December 19 at 00:00, expecting a decline of 2.432 million barrels (previous decline of 1.274 million barrels). A larger decline will help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [4] December 30 - The US Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) will announce the US FHFA house price index for October at 22:00, with an expected monthly rate of 0.1% (previous 0) [5] - Standard & Poor's will announce the US S&P/CS20 - city house price index for October at 22:00. The expected unadjusted annual rate is 1.1% (previous 1.4%), and the expected seasonally - adjusted monthly rate is 0.1% (previous 0.1%) [8] - The Chicago branch of the Institute for Supply Management will announce the US December Chicago PMI at 22:45, with an expected value of 39.5 (previous 36.3). A rise will help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures prices rise but suppress gold and silver futures prices [9] December 31 - The Fed will release the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting at 03:00, and its impact on relevant futures prices should be noted [10] - China's official December manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.2 (previous 49.2), and non - manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7 (previous 49.5) [11] - Markit will release China's December SPGI manufacturing PMI at 09:45, with an expected value of 49.8 (previous 49.9). A slight decrease will slightly suppress industrial product futures and stock index futures but slightly help treasury bond futures [12] - The US Department of Labor will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending December 22 at 21:30, with an expected value of 220,000 (previous 214,000). A slight increase will slightly help non - precious industrial product futures prices rise but help gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures prices rise [13] - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending December 26 at 23:30. A decline will help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [14] January 1 - Trump may appoint a new Fed Chairman. If the appointee is "obedient" like Hassett, it will increase concerns about the Fed's monetary policy independence, with an expected 2 - time rate cut in 2026, helping precious metals and non - ferrous metals futures rise [15][16] January 2 - S&P Global will announce the final value of the US December SPGI manufacturing PMI at 22:45, with an expected value of 51.8 (same as the initial value in December and 52.2 in November's final value) [17] January 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the market prices of important production materials in the circulation field in late December 2025, covering 9 categories and 50 products [18]

目录 中线行情分析 2025.12.29-12.31 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场呈现弱势整理格局，部分价格有所走低。供应端 持续高位运行，而需求维持低迷，尤其是重碱受下游玻璃冷修影响 明显。煤炭价格下行进一步削弱成本支撑，但企业亏损现状限制了 价格的下跌空间。总体交投平淡，市场缺乏方向性驱动，短期预计 延续窄幅震荡。纯碱期货先抑后扬，周尾随商品市场情绪反弹企稳， 但供需过剩格局未改，高库存与持续贴水仍构成压力，短期或维持 区间震荡。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 上周国内纯碱市场窄幅整理，供需宽松格局未变，企业库存 承压，成本支撑减弱。期货在低位震荡后小幅反弹，基本面 疲弱与宏观预期交织，短期延续震荡。 本周策略建议 上周国内纯碱市场弱势整理，供需宽松格局未变。现货需求 疲软且成本支撑减弱，期货先跌后涨，但高库存与过剩压力 持续，短期延续震荡。 相关数据情况 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中 ...

研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012851 姓名：蒯三可 邮箱：kuaisanke@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3040522 期货投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015369 今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-合成橡胶】iFind数据显示，截至12月26日，丁二 烯周度产能利用率70.61%，较上周+0.6%，丁二烯港口库存 43300吨，较上周+7300吨；统计数据显示，2025年11月国内顺 丁橡胶产量13.01万吨，较上月-0.75万吨；截至12月25日，国 内顺丁胶周度产能利用率76.76%，较上周+0.5%。评：国内主力 装置开工率维持高位，新增产能与复产计划（如东明石化丁二 烯装置）带来增量预期，压制现货涨幅。需求方面，轮胎等行 业进入年底备货尾声，刚需存在但高价采购意愿弱，多以小单 补库为主。合成橡胶震荡偏弱。 【短评-白银】日本内阁通过2026财年初步预 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Next week (Dec 29 - Dec 31), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate, and investors should avoid risks during the New Year's Day holiday [5] - For soybean meal, the domestic market is strong due to customs clearance concerns and positive commodity - market sentiment, but attention should also be paid to the dynamics of US soybeans. US soybeans are affected by China's purchases and South American weather [5] - For soybeans, the stable - to - strong spot market and the state reserve's price - increase acquisition are positive factors, while state reserve auctions may suppress short - term upward momentum, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 3: Summary of Market Conditions Last Week International Soybean Market - US soybean futures prices fluctuated last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a slight upward trend. The 03 - month contract of US soybean and US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.16% and 2.02% respectively on Dec 26 [1] - China's limited purchases of US soybeans are neutral - to - negative. On Dec 22, China bought 39.6 tons of US soybeans [1] - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week, which is negative. As of Dec 26, the average CNF premium and import cost of Brazilian soybeans for Feb 2026 delivery decreased [1] - Some regions in Brazil started harvesting soybeans. AgRural raised the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season to 180.4 million tons [1] - Argentina's soybean planting progress was slow, but the early growth was good. As of Dec 24, the planting progress was about 75.5%, and the excellent - good rate was 67% [1] - The weather forecast for South American soybean - producing areas shows that precipitation in Brazilian main - producing areas will be basically normal, and in Argentina, it will be scarce in the next two weeks [1] Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Domestic soybean meal futures prices were strongly fluctuating last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a 2.01% increase in the m2605 contract on Dec 26 [1] - The trading volume, pick - up volume, and basis of domestic soybean meal increased week - on - week. The inventory was basically flat week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The soybean crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to decline next week [1][3] Domestic Soybean Market - Domestic soybean futures prices rose slightly last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a 1.08% increase in the a2605 contract on Dec 26 [1] - The domestic soybean price was stable - to - strong. The state reserve raised the purchase price, and the auction results were good. The trading volume of Northeast soybeans in the northern market was okay, while it was slow in the southern market [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The demand shows weak support, and the futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate within a narrow range. The price increase may face pressure due to the weak short - term demand before the holiday and the new start and复产 on the supply side [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - This week, the alloy prices fluctuated within a narrow range with a slight upward shift in the price center, influenced by both macro - sentiment and weak and stable demand. The previous price increase on the futures market repaired the profit, leading to new starts and复产 on the supply side. Considering the weak short - term demand before the holiday, the upward potential of the futures prices may be limited [5]. - Macroscopically, the Central Economic Work Conference in China has further clarified the direction and tasks for next year's economic work, releasing many signals for stable growth in traditional areas and showing an attitude of policy attention towards prices [5]. - Microscopically, the change in hot metal production is small, providing weak support for raw material demand. The fundamental contradictions of silicomanganese continue to accumulate, and the previous shutdown factories of ferrosilicon have复产 due to the futures price repair [5]. 3.2 Futures Market - This week, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract fluctuated widely, closing at 5,672 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 32 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,118,256 lots and an open interest of 246,240 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 10,661 lots [8]. - The silicomanganese 2603 contract also fluctuated widely, closing at 5,840 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 32 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 764,909 lots and an open interest of 263,579 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 15,721 lots [8]. 3.3 Spot Market - The spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions in China fluctuated upward this week. The aggregated price of FeSi75 - B in major production areas was 5200 - 5270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 20 - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - The aggregated spot price of silicomanganese in major regions ranged from 5520 to 5850 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of - 70 to 80 yuan/ton. For example, the price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5590 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton), in Guangxi was 5700 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 80 yuan/ton), and in Ningxia was 5520 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton) [9]. 3.4 Basis and Spread - The basis of the alloys has shrunk, the spread between the main contracts has fluctuated, and there is a game of warehouse receipts approaching the delivery month [12]. 3.5 Silicomanganese Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese this week was 19.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 tons, with a week - on - week change rate of + 2.3%. The weekly operating rate was 36.78%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points from last week [17]. 3.5.2 Demand - In terms of steelmaking demand, the start - up and actual hot metal production of downstream steel mills are relatively stable. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points, and the daily average hot metal production was 226.58 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 tons. The output of rebar increased by 2.71 tons this week, providing weak support for the demand of silicomanganese [27]. - In the steel procurement market, many steel enterprises have completed their procurement of silicomanganese, with prices fluctuating and procurement volumes varying [24]. 3.5.3 Inventory - As of December 26, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 23,277, a week - on - week decrease of 374, equivalent to a reduction of 1,870 tons, and the current converted inventory was 116,385 tons [33]. - In December, the average available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills was 15.52 days (- 0.32 days), with 13.79 days in the northern region (- 0.55 days), 17.52 days in the eastern region (+ 0.85 days), and 16.27 days in the southern region (- 1.91 days) [34]. - As of December 26, the inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises in China was 386,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons [36]. 3.5.4 Raw Materials - The global manganese ore outbound volume decreased slightly week - on - week, with different changes in different regions. The ore arrival volume at major ports decreased, and the ore dredging volume also decreased slightly [40][47]. - Overseas manganese ore enterprises have raised their quotes. For example, South32's January 2026 offer for South African semi - carbonate lumps remained the same as last month, while the offer for Australian lumps increased by 0.3 dollars/ton - degree compared to December. The port prices of manganese ore have risen, which is closely related to the high dredging demand [52]. 3.5.5 Profit - The cost center of silicomanganese has slightly decreased, and the profit has recovered with the futures price [55]. 3.6 Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data 3.6.1 Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon this week was 9.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 29.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 percentage points [59]. 3.6.2 Demand - In terms of steelmaking demand, the start - up and actual hot metal production of downstream steel mills are relatively stable. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points, and the daily average hot metal production was 226.58 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 tons [76]. - In the non - steel demand aspect, the total output of magnesium metal in November was 8.53 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The output of stainless steel crude steel in November was 304.86 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59 tons. The planned production of stainless steel crude steel in December decreased by 8.2% month - on - month [76]. - The export volume of ferrosilicon in November was 3.11 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52% [76]. 3.6.3 Inventory - As of December 26, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises in China was 63,610 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,550 tons [78]. - As of December 26, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 11,882, a week - on - week decrease of 897, equivalent to a reduction of 4,485 tons, and the current converted inventory was 59,410 tons [78]. - In December, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 15.41 days (- 0.39 days), with 13.76 days in the northern region (- 0.1 days), 17.05 days in the eastern region (+ 1 day), and 16.64 days in the southern region (- 3.81 days) [78]. 3.6.4 Profit - The profit of ferrosilicon has recovered with the futures price, and attention should be paid to the impact of profit repair on the original operating rhythm of factories [89].

国际白银期价逼近每盎司80美元 多种贵金属期价创新高 受避险需求增加等因素拉动，国际黄金、白银价格26日再创新高。其中，交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金 期货价格一度达到每盎司4581.30美元，3月白银期货价格突破每盎司79美元，逼近80美元。 目前，白银相对强弱指数（RSI）读数为93.86，为自1980年1月以来最高。当时RSI曾创下98.77的历史 最高纪录。一些市场分析人士认为，任何高于70.0的RSI读数都表明市场上涨过度，后续可能出现回 调。 最近一周，纽约商品交易所黄金期货RSI创下历史最高纪录，达95.94。黄金RSI历史第二高值出现在 1980年1月，当时达94.69。 此外，纽约铜价继续上涨，进一步巩固了铜价的年度涨幅。一些投资者押注2026年全球铜供应将趋紧。 纽约商品交易所期铜价格26日上涨近4%，至每磅5.7855美元。 有人发帖称，一觉醒来躺赚18万元。"涨到可怕！是不是可以卖了？"一位9月下午才入手白银基金的网 友说，两只期货基金A和C整体涨了近70%。其中A被转入场内后。算上溢价涨了100%。 今年以来，黄金价格飙升逾70%，有望创下自1979年以来最大年度涨幅。白银价格今年迄 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant movements in the futures market, particularly noting a substantial increase in silver futures prices while gold and crude oil show mixed performance [1]. Group 1: Silver Futures - The Shanghai silver futures main contract rose by 6.03%, closing at 19,204 yuan per kilogram [1]. Group 2: Gold Futures - The Shanghai gold futures main contract experienced a slight increase of 0.17%, closing at 1,018 yuan per gram [1]. Group 3: Crude Oil Futures - The SC crude oil main contract declined by 2.44%, closing at 433 yuan per barrel [1].

沪银期货主力合约日内涨幅扩大至5%，报19030元/千克，续创新高。 ...