投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端均有所回升，螺纹钢周产量低位回升，但库存去化有限，供应利好效应不强。 与此同时，螺纹需求持续改善，但依旧是近年来同期低位，且下游未见好转，旺季成色不足。总 之，螺纹需求季节性回升，而供应同样增加，供需双增局面下基本面改善有限，库存去化压力未 退，钢价仍将承压，相对利好则是成本支撑，预计走势延续低位震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情 况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 10 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - International oil prices surged starting October 22, with U.S. Energy Secretary stating that current low prices present a buying opportunity [1] - Domestic chemical futures rose significantly, with SC crude oil increasing over 4% and fuel oil over 3% on October 23 [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of efficient decision-making in futures trading, highlighting the need for precise information and convenient tools [3] - Many futures investors struggle to profit due to the cumbersome process of switching between multiple apps for market data, news, and trading [3] Group 3 - A successful futures trading app must excel in three core areas: market data, news, and trading experience, forming a "golden triangle" that influences decision-making efficiency and trading outcomes [4] - The article compares various mainstream futures apps based on their performance in these three areas [4] Group 4 - In terms of market data, Sina Finance app provides comprehensive coverage of domestic and international futures, offering millisecond-level real-time data [5] - Other notable apps include Tonghuashun and Dongfang Caifu, known for their robust technical analysis tools, and Wenhua Finance, which excels in quantitative analysis [5] Group 5 - The speed of news delivery is crucial in the futures market, with Sina Finance app providing rapid updates and analyses on significant events [6][7][8][9] - Jinshi Data is recognized for its exceptional speed in delivering global data and news, while Wall Street Insights focuses on in-depth analysis and macro research [7][8] Group 6 - The trading experience is enhanced by the seamless integration of market analysis and execution, with Sina Finance app allowing users to complete transactions without switching apps [10] - Official apps from futures companies are noted for their security and stability in transaction processes [10] Group 7 - Sina Finance app stands out as a comprehensive solution, excelling in market data, news, and trading capabilities, making it a preferred choice for futures investors [11] - The app features over 40 global market data connections and offers tools like "volatility alerts" and AI-driven news analysis [11] Group 8 - The article concludes that selecting the right tools is essential for success in the volatile futures market, advocating for a comprehensive, user-friendly platform [13] - The advantages of comprehensive market data, fast news delivery, and convenient trading make Sina Finance app a common choice among futures investors [14]

2025 年 10 月 23 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4057 | -16（-0.39%） | 4063 +13（+0.32%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2885 | -12 （-0.41%） | 2911 +39 （+1.36%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1035 | +4.5（+0.44%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 289.9 | +3.5（+1.22%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | （元/吨） 山东 | 2950～2960， M2601+60/+80/+110， | 较昨-10至持平； 现货基差M2601+90， 持平或+10或+20； 平或+30； 6-9月M2609-3 ...

2025 年 10 月 23 日 燃料油：跟随原油上涨，盘面波动放大 低硫燃料油：短线转强，外盘现货高低硫价差 小幅回弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 漆 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 2.821 | 2. 25% | | 2,792 | 1.53% | | | | FU2512 | 元/吨 | 2,715 | 1. 53% | | 2.695 | 1.13% | | | | LU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,106 | 2. 37% | | 3.063 | 0.89% | | | | LU2512 | 元/吨 | 3.135 | 0. 89% | | 3.100 | 1. 17% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日特仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU2511 | है | 1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - PX is in a short - term volatile market. After PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge appropriately. There may be a load reduction in the later stage. PX supply and demand is slightly tight, and it has cost support from rising oil prices [7]. - PTA demand is expected to improve marginally, with a unilateral volatile market. Short positions should be reduced. New PTA devices are planned to start, and the overall profit of downstream polyester is rising [7]. - For MEG, short positions should be reduced. Pay attention to the restart of some devices and the possible unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices due to profit and coal price factors [7]. Summary by Category Futures Market - PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures all rose yesterday, with SC having the largest increase of 2.17%, and PF having the smallest increase of 1.09%. The price of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, and MEG1 - 5 increased, while PF12 - 1 and SC11 - 12 decreased [2]. Spot Market - PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, and Dated Brent all increased in price yesterday, with PX CFR China rising by $14/ton. The PX - naphtha spread increased by $6.34/ton, while PTA processing fee decreased by $7.3/ton [2]. Market Dynamics - PX was still strong in the afternoon. There were buy - side quotes for December floating prices +5, and January had transaction news at +2. A refinery in East China plans to shut down its 150 - million - ton reformer for maintenance later due to a fault. CNOOC Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical may cut production in November. China's PX imports in September decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, with imports from South Korea decreasing and those from Brunei and Japan increasing [3][5]. - PTA futures fluctuated upward today, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and weak spot basis. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 88 [5]. - A new 80 - million - ton/year MEG device in South China plans to start trial production in early November, and a 90 - million - ton/year MEG device in East China has started maintenance today [6]. - The production and sales of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated, with an average of 7 - 80% by 3:30 pm. The production and sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were smooth, with an average of 138% by 3:00 pm [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral view [6].

2025 年 10 月 23 日 沥青：地缘刺激，快速上扬 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,326 | 1.84% | 3,336 | 0.30% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,268 | 2.45% | 3,282 | 0.43% | | 期 货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 37,132 | (3,717) | 27,193 | (8,133) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 50,456 | 10,176 | 76,380 | (1,808) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 13040 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 ...

2025 年 10 月 23 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,164 | 涨跌幅 -1.40% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,080 | 涨跌幅 -0.92% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,238 | -0.68% | 8,204 | -0.41% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,834 | -0.30% | 9,738 | -0.98% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,452 | -1.24% | 4,423 | -0.74% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 50.02 | -1.24% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 637,846 | 84307 | 346,365 | 12,688 | | | 豆油主 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the screw - thread and hot - rolled coil, the apparent demand rebounded last week but was weaker than the same period last year. The holiday factor led to an increase in building material inventory, and the slow decline in total inventory suppressed the futures price. The spot prices of coking coal and coke were strong, providing cost support. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill profits, steel mills may reduce production, potentially triggering a negative feedback cycle. Technically, if the futures prices of screw - thread and hot - rolled coil continue to rise, it means the end of the downward trend [2]. - For iron ore, the high iron - making output of sample steel mills supports the demand for iron ore. But the decline in steel mill profits may lead to production cuts, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments are at a high level, and the increase in port inventory during the consumption peak suppresses the futures price. The slow reduction of steel inventory also dampens market sentiment. Technically, the 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can break through the 60 - day and 10 - day moving averages [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Screw - thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and demand**: Apparent demand rebounded last week but was weaker than last year. Holiday led to inventory increase, slow total inventory decline, and cost supported by strong coking coal and coke. Steel mill profit decline may lead to production cuts [2]. - **Technical analysis**: Futures prices of screw - thread and hot - rolled coil have rebounded above the 10 - day moving average. Continued rise means the end of the downward trend [2]. - **Operation suggestions**: Hold short positions lightly. Stop profit if there is a sharp and rapid decline. Exit during the subsequent correction if the futures price continues to rebound [2]. - **Data summary**: - **Prices**: Screw - thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices increased. For example, the closing price of the screw - thread steel main contract was 3068 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from last week [3]. - **Basis and spreads**: Most basis and spreads changed, such as the screw - thread steel main basis decreased by 14 yuan/ton compared to last week [3]. - **Production**: The output of screw - thread steel and hot - rolled coil decreased. The national building materials steel mill screw - thread steel output was 201.16 million tons, down 1.10% from last week [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.66%, while the social and mill inventories of screw - thread steel decreased [3]. - **Apparent demand**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties increased by 19.03% [3]. 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and demand**: High iron - making output supports demand, but profit decline may lead to production cuts and price suppression. Global shipments are high, and port inventory increase suppresses the futures price [4]. - **Technical analysis**: The 01 contract has rebounded slightly, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through the 60 - day and 10 - day moving averages [4]. - **Data summary**: - **Prices**: Most iron ore spot and futures prices changed. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 774 yuan/dry ton, up 0.58% from the previous day [5]. - **Basis and spreads**: The basis and futures month - to - month spreads changed, such as the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread was - 41.5 yuan/dry ton, down 1.5 yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Shipments and arrivals**: Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments increased. The northern six - port arrival volume decreased by 15.48% [5]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased by 1.81%, while the sintered powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills decreased by 2.82% [5]. 3. Industry News - In Wuhai and Qipanjing, most open - pit coal mines are shut down due to slope management and resource restructuring. Environmental inspections are strict, and coal shipments are restricted, but the impact on production is small [6]. - Some steel mills in Northeast China resumed production in October, but the winter production enthusiasm is low. The current daily output in Northeast China has decreased by 4.4 million tons [6]. - All 4.3 - meter coke ovens in Inner Mongolia were shut down by December 31, 2024, with a total coking capacity of 55.7 million tons [7]. - Inner Mongolia requires all cement clinker production lines to implement off - peak production from November 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026 [7]. - Vale's iron ore production in Q3 2025 was 94.4 million tons, a 12.9% quarter - on - quarter increase and a 3.8% year - on - year increase. Sales were 86 million tons, up 11.21% quarter - on - quarter and 5.1% year - on - year [7]. - As of the week ending October 22, the national key steel product output increased by 0.77 million tons, the factory inventory decreased by 7.84 million tons, the social inventory decreased by 14.88 million tons, and the apparent demand increased by 33.17 million tons [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: On October 21, the nickel market had a weak fundamental situation with pressure, but the valuation was at a low level. It was expected that the nickel price would fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy was to wait and see [1]. - Stainless steel: On October 21, the stainless - steel market had a loose fundamental situation and weak cost support. It was expected that the price would fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy was to sell short on rallies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Futures Data**: - On October 21, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) increased compared to the previous day, with increases ranging from 430 to 520 yuan/ton. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 60,391 hands (- 8,453), and the open interest was 50,388 hands (- 8,270). The LME nickel price fell 0.08%. The ratio of Shanghai - LME nickel futures prices was 7.97 (+ 0.04) [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai nickel futures increased by 158 tons to 27,026 tons. The LME nickel inventory remained unchanged at 250,476 tons, with registered warrants decreasing by 244,356 tons and cancelled warrants decreasing by 6,120 tons [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market trading was average, and the premium of the basis decreased. The prices of nickel ore remained flat, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports increased last week, and port inventories accumulated. The loss of nickel - iron plants deepened. In October, domestic nickel - iron production increased, and Indonesian production also increased, leading to a reduction in nickel - iron inventory. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits expanded [1]. - **Demand Side**: Ternary cathode production increased, stainless - steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Data**: - On October 21, the stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) showed an upward - oscillating trend. The trading volume of the active stainless - steel futures contract was 126,078 hands (+ 1,298), and the open interest was 188,332 hands (- 9,862) [2]. - The inventory of Shanghai stainless - steel futures decreased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 621,700 tons (+ 2,300) [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market trading was acceptable, and the premium of the basis decreased. In October, stainless - steel production schedules increased, but 300 - series production schedules decreased. Terminal demand was weak. The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]. Inventory Data - **Nickel**: SMM China port nickel ore total inventory was 10.53 million wet tons (+ 0.03 million), SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory remained at 3,100 tons, and SMM pure - nickel social inventory was 47,708 tons (+ 4,014) [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The total stainless - steel spot inventory was 915,700 tons (- 10,100), with 200 - series at 172,200 tons (- 8,700), 300 - series at 621,700 tons (+ 2,300), and 400 - series at 121,800 tons (- 3,700) [2]. Industry News Vale's nickel sales in the third quarter were 42,900 tons, and its nickel production was 46,800 tons [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The current volatility level is in a low - lying stage of accumulation. The "bad news is good news" logic may be coming to an end, and the internal fluctuation energy in the US is being accumulated, with a possible phased increase. The domestic low - valued assets may have some support in the fourth quarter. There is a risk of increased volatility in global large - class assets next week [8]. - Domestic macro: The economic and financial data in September showed relative resilience with structural highlights. Policy expectations were further strengthened, which is expected to promote the increase of physical work volume in the fourth quarter. The low - valued domestic assets in the fourth quarter may have certain support [8]. - Asset views: There is a risk of increased volatility in global large - class assets next week. In the overseas market, the marginal support for risk assets may decline, and the volatility of precious metals and the equity market may increase. In the domestic market, there are marginal changes in the policy end, and the low - valued domestic commodity assets may have a rebound opportunity [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4563.4, down 0.31%; the SSE 50 futures at 3005.6, up 0.03%; the CSI 500 futures at 7011.6, down 0.58%; the CSI 1000 futures at 7163.2, down 0.27% [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.358, down 0.01%; the 5 - year at 105.735, up 0.02%; the 10 - year at 108.145, unchanged; the 30 - year at 115.61, up 0.02% [4]. - **Commodity Futures**: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher, while the precious metals sector corrected. For example, in the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 57.58, up 1.14%; ICE Brent at 61.66, up 1.18%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold closed at 4138.5, down 5.39%; COMEX silver at 48.16, down 16.41% [4]. 3.2 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: The stock market had a shrinking - volume rebound, and the bond market continued to be weak. Stock index futures may see a shock - up trend due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles; stock index options may fluctuate as market turnover declined slightly; treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. Gold and silver prices may fluctuate due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade tensions [9]. - **Shipping Sector**: Attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline. The container shipping to Europe may be volatile as the peak season in the third quarter has passed and there is a lack of upward drivers [9]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Steel and ore prices have been under pressure. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as policy disturbances, production and supply, and cost [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Basic metals are waiting for the clarification of macro - policies and are in a state of shock. For example, copper prices may decline in the short term due to renewed trade frictions; aluminum prices may rise slightly as inventories are decreasing [9]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: The trade tension has slightly eased, but the supply - demand pattern of energy and chemicals remains weak. Most products are expected to be volatile, with some products such as crude oil and LPG at risk of shock - down [11]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The sentiment has warmed up, but the trends are differentiated. Some products like cotton may see a shock - up due to rising purchase prices, while others like sugar may continue to be weak and volatile [11].