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广发早知道:特殊商品版-20250701
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 03:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The natural rubber market is expected to be weak due to increased supply and weakening demand, with short positions above 14,000 to be held [4][6]. - The polysilicon market faces a mismatch between weak demand and复产 expectations, with prices likely to be under pressure in July. Short positions should be held cautiously [7][8]. - The industrial silicon market may experience low - level fluctuations. Large - scale enterprise production cuts have driven up futures prices, but there are still uncertainties in demand and inventory [8][10]. - The soda ash market is again dominated by the surplus logic, and the glass market has weakened as spot sales have declined. High - level short positions in soda ash should be held, and the glass price is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [11][13]. 3. Summary by Variety Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices**: As of June 30, cup rubber was 48.05 (+0.90) Thai baht/kg, and latex was 56.00 (-1.00) Thai baht/kg. Yunnan glue acquisition price was 13,600 (0) yuan/ton, and Hainan fresh latex was 13,800 (0) yuan/ton [4]. - **Tire Data**: As of June 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.40%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a week - on - week increase of 0.84 percentage points [4]. - **Logic**: Overseas supply is increasing, and some semi - steel tire enterprises are reducing production due to inventory pressure. The price is expected to be weak, and short positions above 14,000 should be held [6]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices**: On June 30, the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 34,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of P - type cauliflower material was 28,500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of June 26, the weekly output decreased by 900 tons to 23,600 tons. It is expected that the output will increase in July. The demand is continuously decreasing, and downstream product prices are falling [7]. - **Inventory**: On June 26, the polysilicon inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 27 million tons [8]. - **Logic**: In July, the futures price increased with reduced positions. The cost of industrial silicon provides support, but the demand is still weak. The price is likely to be under pressure if there is no significant production cut [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices**: On June 26, the average market price of oxygen - containing Si5530 industrial silicon in East China was 8,150 yuan/ton, and that of Si4210 was 8,700 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May 2025, the output increased by 2.3% month - on - month. In June, the output is expected to reach 340,000 - 350,000 tons. The demand has recovered, but the terminal demand is still weak [9]. - **Inventory**: Warehouse receipts, social inventory, and factory inventory have all decreased [9]. - **Logic**: Large - scale enterprise production cuts have driven up futures prices, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase. The price may fluctuate at a low level [10]. Soda Ash - **Spot Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of heavy soda ash was around 1,300 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the domestic soda ash output was 716,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,000 tons. As of June 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7669 million tons, an increase of 11,000 tons [11]. - **Logic**: The surplus logic dominates the market again. After the end of maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. High - level short positions should be held [12][13]. Glass - **Spot Prices**: The average transaction price in Shahe was around 1,100 yuan/ton [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of June 26, the daily output of national float glass was 156,800 tons, a 0.87% increase from the 19th. This week, the output was 1.0909 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24% [11]. - **Logic**: Spot sales have weakened. The market is in the off - season, and the industry needs capacity reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate between 950 - 1050 [13].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250701
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 01:32
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides daily research on the black - series commodities in the futures market, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The overall market trends are characterized by wide - range fluctuations, with thermal coal showing signs of stabilizing due to improved daily consumption [2][4][6][7][11][14][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 715.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (- 0.14%). The import and domestic ore prices were mostly stable, with some minor changes in the prices of Jinbuba and Super Special ores. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar, the RB2510 contract closed at 2,997 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.23%); for hot - rolled coil, the HC2510 contract closed at 3,123 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.13%). The spot prices in different regions had various changes, and the basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Industry News**: In June, the manufacturing PMI and other economic indicators showed an upward trend. Steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption data had different changes. In May, the exports of steel billets, rebar, and wire rods increased significantly [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][11]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. The spot prices of ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, manganese ore, and semi - coke showed different trends. The basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads also changed [11]. - **Industry News**: The prices and production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. The production of ferrosilicon in Ningxia increased, and the production of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also showed certain changes [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Coke is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, while coking coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations affected by news [2][14][15]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke decreased. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also changed. The positions of the top 20 members in the DCE showed different trends [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral view [17]. Thermal Coal - **Market Trend**: Expected to stabilize with fluctuations due to improved daily consumption [19]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading yesterday. The prices of foreign trade and domestic thermal coal in different regions were reported, and the positions of the top 20 members in the ZCE showed no change [20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [22]. Logs - **Market Trend**: Expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the change of the main contract [23]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts showed various changes. The spot prices of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - **Industry News**: The US dollar index fell below 97.0 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [25].
国投期货软商品日报-20250630
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 13:40
| Million | > 國授期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月30日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | なな女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【20号胶&天然橡胶&合成橡胶】 今日RU&NR&BR震荡偏弱,国内天然橡胶现价稳中有跌,合成橡胶现价稳定,泰国原料市场价格涨跌互现。供应方面,目前全球 天然橡胶供应逐渐进入高产期,东南亚主要产区有强降雨;上周国内丁二烯橡胶装置开工率继续回升,燕山石化、菏泽科信和 锦州石化继续停车检修、振华新材料和齐翔腾达装置负荷 ...
短纤:短期震荡瓶片,短期震荡,多PR空PF
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 06:48
2025 年 06 月 30 日 短纤:短期震荡 瓶片:短期震荡,多 PR 空 PF 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅(联系人) 从业资格号:F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2507 | 6618 | 6664 | -46 | PF07-08 | 92 | 112 | -20 | | PF | 短纤2508 | 6526 | 6552 | -26 | PF08-09 | 80 | 62 | 18 | | | 短纤2509 | 6446 | 6490 | -44 | PF基差 | 214 | 208 | 6 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 252225 | 264394 | -12169 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 740 | 6.760 | -20 | | | 短纤成交量 | 2059 ...
宁证期货今日早评-20250630
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 03:49
重点品种: 今 日 早 评 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2820元/吨,上升55元 /吨;中国甲醇港口样本库存67.05万吨,周上升14.34%;甲醇 样本生产企业库存34.16万吨,周减少2.58万吨;样本企业订单 待发24.07万吨,周下降3.31万吨;甲醇开工91.31%,周上升 2.65%;下游总产能利用率75.57%,周下降0.2%。评:成本端煤 炭价格预期较稳,国内甲醇开工预期高位运行,下游需求较 稳,本周预计进口到货有所减量,港口或去库。内地甲醇市场 窄幅整理,河南企业竞拍成交顺畅,港口甲醇市场现货多一口 价报盘,整体成交一般。预计甲醇09合约短期震荡运行,上方 压力2420一线,建议空单谨慎持有。 【短评-原油】贝克休斯油服数据显示美国钻探公司连续第 九周削减石油和天然气钻机数量。美国至6月27日当周石油钻井 总数 432口,前值438口,钻机数的连续下降意味着美国原油产 量增速将持续变缓;7月6日OPEC+自愿减产8国将举行会议决定8 月产量水平。评:整体来看,当前美国供给增长效果较弱, OPEC+不断提产的诉求较强,从而基本面上支撑油价上涨的动力 也略显不足。后续建议持续关注伊核问题 ...
对二甲苯:供应收缩,月差偏强,PTA,月差反套,MEG,单边偏弱
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 02:35
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Positive outlook for single - side price, long PX short SC, long PX short PTA to continue holding, month - spread positive set [5][6] - PTA: Single - side slightly bullish in a range, long PTA short MEG to take profit, month - spread and basis recommended to reverse set at high [5][6] - MEG: Single - side stable in a range, long PTA short MEG to take profit [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX: Supply continues to shrink, maintaining a tight - balance de - stocking pattern in July. Asian operating rate will decline further. PTA demand is stable with a slight increase. Single - side price is expected to be strong and month - spread is mainly positive set [5] - PTA: Cost is supported, but month - spread is under pressure. Supply - demand will shift from rapid de - stocking to a loose pattern. Month - spread and basis should be reverse - set at high [5][6] - MEG: Supply has decreased due to device maintenance, but imports are increasing. Polyester plants have many production - cut plans. Cost support has recovered, and shorting is not recommended [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Closing Prices and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had closing prices of 6752, 4778, 4271, 6526, and 3600 respectively, with daily changes of 0.4%, 0.2%, - 0.5%, - 0.4%, and - 2.5% [2] - **Month - spreads and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 had month - spreads of 206, 172, - 43, 92, and - 421 respectively, with daily changes of 8, - 2, - 9, - 20, and 168 [2] - **Inter - variety Spreads and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA07 - PF07, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 had spreads of 389, 507, - 1624, 939, and 1178 respectively, with daily changes of - 12, 30, 64, - 50, and 31 [2] - **Basis and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spread were 281, 270, 65, 124, and 283 respectively, with daily changes of - 30, 15, - 7, 36, and no change [2] - **Warehouse Receipts and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 35022, 5847, 5464, 0, and 5911000 respectively, with daily changes of - 930, - 100, no change, - 1805, and no change [2] 2. Market Overview - **PX**: A 350,000 - ton PX device in a Japanese factory has unexpectedly shut down for maintenance, expected to last about a month. A domestic mainstream supplier's July PX contract advance payment is 7250 yuan/ton (acceptance), and PTA is 5300 yuan/ton [4] - **PTA**: A 200,000 - ton IPA device in East China has restarted after a shutdown on June 9 [4] - **MEG**: On June 27, the spot and futures prices of MEG are provided, along with the monthly settlement reference price and average price [4] - **Polyester**: On June 27, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 30% - 40% [4] 3. Market Views - **PX**: Supply contraction, tight - balance de - stocking in July. Asian operating rate to decline. PTA demand stable with a slight increase. Single - side price expected to be strong, month - spread positive set [5] - **PTA**: Cost supported, but month - spread under pressure. Supply - demand to shift to a loose pattern. Month - spread and basis recommended to reverse set at high [5][6] - **MEG**: Supply decreased due to maintenance, imports increasing. Polyester production - cut plans. Cost support recovered, shorting not recommended [6]
宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250630
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 02:29
保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正,但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供 参考,不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果,本公司概不负责。本 报告版权仅为本公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需 注明出处为宏源期货,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 风险提示:期市有风险,投资需谨慎! 王江楠(F03108382,Z0021543),联系电话:010-82295006 | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/30 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/27 | 美元/桶 | 65.52 | 65.24 | 0.43% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/27 | 美元/桶 | 67.77 | 67.73 | 0.06% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价) ...
棕榈油:产地近端基本面改善有限,反套表达豆油:关注美豆面积报告
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 02:12
2025年06月30日 | 棕榈油:产地近端基本面改善有限,反套表达 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油:关注美豆面积报告 | 2 | | 豆粕:反弹震荡,规避USDA报告风险 | 4 | | 豆一:现货稳定,盘面反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米:关注拍卖 | 6 | | 白糖:区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花:乐观情绪推动期价震荡上涨 | 8 | | 鸡蛋:逐步布局远月空单 | 10 | | 生猪:短期调整 | 11 | | 花生:下方有支撑 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 30 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 棕榈油:产地近端基本面改善有限,反套表达 豆油:关注美豆面积报告 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘) | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 (夜盘) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,376 | 0.19% | ...
工业硅:上游突发减产,关注上方空间,多晶硅:市场消息扰动,以逢高空配为主
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-29 09:34
二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 06 月 29 日 工业硅:上游突发减产,关注上方空间 多晶硅:市场消息扰动,以逢高空配为主 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读: 本周价格走势:工业硅盘面持续抬升,现货价格亦上涨;多晶硅盘面大幅上涨,现货报价弱势 工业硅运行情况:本周工业硅盘面受上游工厂减产刺激、焦煤品种上涨、叠加近期仓单去化,短期有所 抬升,周五收于 8030 元/吨。现货市场价格有所抬升,SMM 统计新疆通氧 Si5530 报价 7700 元/吨(环比 +100),内蒙 99 硅报价 7900 元/吨(环比+100)。 多晶硅运行情况:本周多晶硅盘面大幅上涨,市场交易焦煤及工业硅上涨所带来的成本抬升预期,且亦 有市场消息称上游限价等因素,周五盘面收于 33315 元/吨。多晶硅现货市场来看,短期暂未有实际成交, 但预计后续实际成交价将下降。 供需基本面:工业硅本周行业库存再次去库;多晶硅上游库存转累库 工业硅供给端,周度行业库存再次去库。据百川统计,本周新疆、内蒙地区硅厂开工率下降,主要是新 疆地区工厂突发减产。此外,西南地区进入丰水期仍具 ...
软商品日报-20250627
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 12:41
| 《八♠ 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月27日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ☆☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | な女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉继续上涨,国内棉花成交一般,基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱成交依旧偏清谈,下游需求仍旧不足,市场交投不佳,下游订 单仍然不佳。截至6月15号,棉花商业库存为312.69万吨,较5丹底减少33.18万吨,消化仍然良好,棉花库存仍存偏紧预期。国 内5月进口4万吨,创近10年新低,同比降22万吨,环比降2万吨。进口持续偏少,也导致国产棉消化 ...