Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that methanol will mainly continue its oscillatory trend. The international device operating rate has declined, with some Iranian devices shutting down due to gas restrictions, causing a slight disturbance to imports. The domestic supply is abundant, with high domestic operating rates and stable coal - based profits. The downstream demand is stable, and although there are some fluctuations in the market, the impact on methanol futures is weakening [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures market showed a strong oscillation, closing at 2135 (+18/+0.85%) [2]. - **Spot Market**: Different regions have different spot prices. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 1980 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 1970 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, the market price in southern Shandong is 2170 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - In the week of 20251121 - 1127, China's methanol production was 2,023,515 tons, an increase of 7,530 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 89.09%, a 0.37% increase from the previous week [3]. Logical Analysis - **Supply Side**: The profit of coal - based methanol is around 260 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously abundant with high and stable operating rates [4]. - **Import Side**: The US dollar price has rebounded, the import positive spread has continued to widen, the external operating rate has increased at a high level, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 125 tons in November and continues to tender at a discounted price [4]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, with some MTO devices running stably and some operating at partial loads [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. The port is destocking due to less arrivals this week, while the inland market has abundant supplies [4]. Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: Stop profit on short positions [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Sell call options [6].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The spot price of urea has risen continuously, and the downstream's willingness to purchase is acceptable. The futures price has followed the increase. However, as the price rises and approaches the pressure level, the futures market is expected to experience a correction and fluctuate within a narrow range [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Directory 1. Market Analysis - The futures market opened high and moved strongly throughout the day. The price continued to rise, and the consecutive positive days in the market boosted sentiment. The enthusiasm for fertilizer preparation was good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1610 yuan/ton, rebounding by about 10 yuan/ton, with the highest price in Hebei [1][4] - The daily production of urea is significantly higher than the same period in previous years. Before the seasonal shutdown of gas - based plants, the daily production of upstream plants will remain high. Starting next month, there will be more gas - based plant overhauls [1] - The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants continued to increase. After the production of winter - storage fertilizers, the production load gradually climbed. Although the recent pre - orders were not good, the pending orders were still sufficient, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise next week. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants increased by 2.45 percentage points this period [1] - Other industrial demands were mainly stable. The operating rate of melamine decreased by 1.4 percentage points this period. High raw material prices restricted the downstream operating rate [1] - Since the recent price increase, the downstream terminal's purchasing speed has increased, and the enthusiasm of agricultural dealers to purchase has significantly increased. Coupled with reserve demand, the inventory has decreased for several consecutive weeks, with a week - on - week decline of 5.1% this week [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1679 yuan/ton, opened high and moved strongly throughout the day, and finally closed at 1677 yuan/ton, forming a negative line with a change of +0.72%. The trading volume was 223,887 lots (-7,026 lots). Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 232 lots, and short positions decreased by 2,429 lots [2] Spot - The price continued to rise, and the consecutive positive days in the market boosted sentiment. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1580 - 1610 yuan/ton, rebounding by about 10 yuan/ton, with the highest price in Hebei [1][4] Warehouse Receipts - On November 28, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,587, a week - on - week increase of 406. Among them, Jiashili Jingzhou (Yuntu Holdings UR) decreased by 99, Anzhou Logistics (Sichuan Agricultural Materials UR) increased by 250, Ningling Stanley increased by 105, and Hengshui Cotton and Linen increased by 150 [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both increased today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day. The basis of the January contract was - 17 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - On November 28, 2025, the national daily production of urea was 205,900 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.85% [9]

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 玉米利多兑现 维持低多思路不变 猪价震荡磨底 盘面弱势震荡整理 现货低位震荡 鸡蛋多空分歧加大 2025年11月28日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：张晓君 联系方式：0371-65617380 期货从业资格证号：F0242716 期货交易咨询号：Z0011864 本周玉米期货分析逻辑及策略建议 本周观点：玉米利多兑现 维持低多思路不变 【重要资讯】 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示28日深加工企业收购价小幅上涨。东北地区深加工企业收购价2056元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价 2280元/吨，较前一日涨9元/吨。 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示28日北港稳定、南港偏弱。锦州港15%水二等新季玉米收购价2210-2230元/吨左右，较前一日持平；蛇口港成交价2390元/吨， 较前一日跌10元/吨。 3、28日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日减2300张，共计60215张。 4、玉米饲用性价比提升。WIND 数据显示截至11月28日，山东地区小麦-玉米价差为+240元/吨，较前一日持平。 【市场逻辑】 短期来看，华北地区连阴雨对产量及粮质影响 ...

Core Points - CME Group, the world's largest exchange operator, experienced a significant outage affecting its popular currency platform and futures trading across various asset classes, including forex, commodities, U.S. Treasuries, and equities [1] - The outage was attributed to a cooling system issue at the CyrusOne data center, with CME stating efforts are underway to resolve the problem in the short term [1] - As of the report, futures prices for WTI crude oil, 10-year U.S. Treasuries, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Nikkei, palm oil, and gold were not updated, indicating a widespread impact on trading [2] Group 1 - The outage left brokers in a "blind flying" state, as they lacked real-time quotes, leading to reluctance in trading contracts, particularly in the spot gold and silver markets, which experienced severe volatility due to liquidity issues [3] - Traders expressed frustration over the disruption, especially those needing to roll positions from one month to another, highlighting the complexity of the situation for derivatives trading [5] - CME's recent outage is notable as it follows over a decade since its last major failure, which occurred in April 2014 due to technical issues that halted electronic trading for some agricultural contracts [6] Group 2 - The incident occurred during a period of low trading activity in Asian markets post-Thanksgiving, exacerbating the situation as traders were already facing a volatile month-end [7] - CMC Markets withdrew some commodity contracts and relied on internal data for quotes, indicating a shift in trading strategies due to the outage [6] - CME reported an average daily volume of 26.3 million contracts for derivatives in October, underscoring the significance of the exchange in the financial markets [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - cautiously bullish; Cost - neutral; Device change - cautiously bullish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bullish; Processing profit - neutral [5] - PX: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Device change - cautiously bearish; Import - neutral; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - neutral; Processing profit - cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Device change - neutral; Import - cautiously bearish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bearish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: Before the end of the year, major suppliers' maintenance is high. Demand seasonally weakens but polyester provides support. The balance is tight from November to December. Short - term supply and demand are not bad, basis stabilizes. Pay attention to the progress of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in the short term. Buy low after a pullback and widen the processing fee on dips [5][68] - PX: As PTA maintenance increases, the near - term balance eases slightly. Some disproportionation units have reduced their loads recently. The overall pattern and outlook are not bad. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6][96] - Ethylene glycol: There is an increase in maintenance on the supply side, port inventory build - up is realized. The balance still faces inventory build - up from November to December. The current valuation is not high, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [7][142] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Terminal Demand - Terminal demand has slightly declined from its peak. The operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing have reached 87%, 73%, and 77% respectively. Weekly sales were good, with a surge on Thursday. Downstream enterprises mainly consumed raw material inventories, with inventory days ranging from 5 - 10 days. Local orders have slightly weakened [9] Polyester Situation - As of November 21st, the polyester load was around 91.3%, cash flow was compressed, and the average polyester inventory was around 14.4 days. Polyester inventory pressure is not large, cash flow is average. With low inventory, the polyester operating rate remains high, and it is expected to maintain at 91 - 90% from November to December [20][48] - Polyester raw materials are stable, polyester profits have stabilized, and overall profitability is average. Staple fiber and chips have weakened [22] - As of November 21st, the inventories of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber were 14, 25.8, 14.3, and 8.7 days respectively. Currently, polyester inventory pressure is not large [35] PTA Situation - PTA device maintenance is carried out as planned. Some devices are in maintenance, and some have been restarted. The planned maintenance in November and December is not low [51][52] - As of November 21st, the PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased steadily to 2230000 tons, a decrease of 32800 tons. It is expected that the inventory pressure will not be large before the end of the year [55] - According to the PTA balance sheet, the maintenance will continue to increase at the end of the year. The balance from November to December will turn to tight and destocking, and the basis will strengthen. In the short term, the cost is expected to be affected by the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine [66][68] PX Situation - US refinery operations have rebounded, and gasoline inventories have rebounded from the bottom. With the expectation of Russia - Ukraine easing, gasoline cracking has declined from its high, and the octane number has stabilized. The economic viability of gasoline blending has declined marginally. Asian disproportionation profits are average, some units are under maintenance, and the short - process of MX - PX is okay [80][83] - The US - Asia arbitrage spread has slightly narrowed. The US - Asia spread of toluene is $225, and that of xylene is $210. Xylene tariffs have been exempted. North American demand for aromatics has declined in 2025, and South Korea's exports of aromatics to the US have remained low since April [88] - The domestic PX load is at a high level of 89.5%, and the Asian load is 79.7%. Recently, the maintenance of some disproportionation units has increased. In November, the balance eases, and it will maintain a tight balance from December to February. The outlook for PX is not bad, and it will fluctuate in the short term [90][96] Ethylene Glycol Situation - As of November 21st, the overall ethylene glycol load has slightly declined from its high. The total load is 70.8%, and the coal - based load is 66%. The coal - chemical load has decreased significantly in the short term [109] - There is an increase in ethylene glycol device maintenance, and the overall domestic load has decreased. Overseas, some units have restarted, some are under maintenance, and some have plans to stop or reduce production. The import volume from November to December is estimated to be 650000 tons and 600000 tons respectively [114][129] - As of November 24th, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 732000 tons, remaining stable compared to last week. The arrival volume is expected to be stable in the later period, and the downstream inventory has slightly increased [137] - According to the ethylene glycol balance sheet, although there is an increase in maintenance, there is still seasonal inventory build - up pressure from November to December [139]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures were closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday; the driving force for Zhengzhou cotton futures prices weakened. New cotton warehousing reached its peak, and commercial inventories entered a seasonal growth cycle. Spinning mills' downstream orders remained dull, and the operating rate did not show an obvious decline. Overall, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a sideways movement [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 284,007 lots, and the open interest was 954,257 lots. The settlement prices were 13,635 yuan/ton for January, 13,595 yuan/ton for May, and 13,715 yuan/ton for September. The settlement price of the ICE December contract was 62.77, up 34 points; the March contract was 64.57, up 34 points; the May contract was 65.75, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning mills in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new 31 - grade machine - picked cotton with double 29 and less than 2.8% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The basis transaction price for the 2601 contract was 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US cotton product import volume was 1.499 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, according to the US Department of Agriculture, the US cotton picking progress was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US textile and clothing import volume was 9.789 billion square meters, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%; the import value was 9.53 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, both the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures increased, and the price rose while the spot price remained stable. Some spinning mills reported that the downstream sales had slowed down recently, the finished product inventory had increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market had intensified [2] Trading Strategy - Close the previously held call options on the 01 contract - Hold the call options on the 05 contract with an exercise price of 13,500 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Oscillating [1] - Red dates: Oscillating with a weak bias [3] - Rubber: Oscillating (Natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, Synthetic rubber) [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Sugar: Domestic sugar market fundamentals have limited news, with new sugar gradually entering the market and general trading atmosphere. Technically, the short - term trend has improved, but there is pressure near the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands. Consider short - term trading strategies such as holding or partially closing SR601 short positions and buying put options [1]. - Red dates: After the negative factors are digested, the downward trend of red date futures prices weakens. However, due to the seasonal inventory accumulation period and unsold upstream goods, there are few positive factors, and the market is expected to remain weak. Continue to be bearish and adopt a strategy of short - selling on upward rebounds [3]. - Rubber: Natural rubber has long - short factors intertwined. Supply - side support exists as domestic production areas enter the off - season and Southeast Asian weather is unstable, but there is pressure from increased overseas arrivals and weak demand. Synthetic rubber has limited fundamental contradictions with stable raw material supply and general downstream demand. Pay attention to price ranges for different rubber varieties [4]. Group 3: Content Summaries by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Review - SR601 contract closed at 5403 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.45% daily, and 5411 yuan/ton at night. SR605 contract closed at 5325 yuan/ton yesterday, up 0.30% daily, and 5335 yuan/ton at night [1]. Important Information - The external market was closed yesterday with no quote. - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi rose by 9 yuan/ton to 5397 yuan/ton. New sugar in Guangxi was priced at 5580 - 5650 yuan/ton, and Yunnan's sugar prices were also given. - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, 20 sugar mills have started crushing, 25 less than the same period last year, with a daily cane - crushing capacity of about 146,000 tons, 260,500 tons less than last year. - It is estimated that the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November will be 18.85 million tons, up 14.9% year - on - year, and sugar production will be 1.075 million tons, up 18.9% year - on - year. - As of November 23, 2025/26 in India's Maharashtra state, 154 sugar mills have started crushing, 34 more than the same period last year, with 15.177 million tons of cane crushed and 1.1592 million tons of sugar produced. - StoneX predicts that the sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season will be 620.5 million tons, and sugar production will be 41.5 million tons, up 3.3% from the 2025/26 season. - Yesterday, the number of white - sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 75, a decrease of 7618 from the previous day [1]. Market Logic - External market: ICE raw sugar was closed yesterday with no quote. - Domestic market: Zhengzhou sugar rose slightly. Technically, short - covering has improved the trend, and short - term pressure at the middle axis of the Bollinger Bands should be noted [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold or partially close SR601 short positions, close profitable call - selling options at 5600, close profitable bear - spread combinations, and consider buying put options [1]. Red Dates Market Review - CJ601 contract closed at 9150 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.11% daily. CJ605 contract closed at 9295 yuan/ton, up 0.05% daily [3]. Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample warehouses this week was 10,848 tons, an increase of 518 tons from last week, a 5.01% increase. - In the Hebei market, the price of extra - grade red dates was 9.83 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous day. - In the Guangzhou Ruyifang market, 4 trucks of red dates arrived, a decrease of 3 trucks from the previous day [3]. Market Logic - The red - date acquisition in some areas of Xinjiang is completed, and the acquisition in other main producing areas is in the second half. The price in the Hebei sales area has stopped falling and rebounded slightly. After the negative factors are digested, the downward trend weakens, but there are few positive factors, and the market is expected to remain weak [3]. Trading Strategy - Hold or partially close CJ601 short positions and short - sell CJ605 on rebounds [3]. Rubber Market Review - RU2601 contract closed at 15,280 yuan/ton on November 27, up 0.56% daily. NR2601 contract closed at 12,205 yuan/ton, up 0.33% daily. BR2601 contract closed at 10,400 yuan/ton, up 0.39% daily [4]. Important Information - The average weekly price of Shanghai full - latex rubber was 14,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The average weekly price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market was 1835 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton. - As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 468,900 tons, an increase of 16,300 tons from the previous period, a 3.60% increase. - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises this week was 66%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points from the previous week and 13.64 percentage points from the same period last year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points from the previous week and 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year. - In October 2025, Thailand's natural - rubber exports to the world were 409,700 tons, a 15.71% increase from the previous month and an 8.88% increase from the same period last year. - The delivery price in the central Shandong region was 7150 - 7250 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 6750 - 6850 yuan/ton. - This week, the mainstream sales companies lowered the ex - factory price of high - cis polybutadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton [4]. Market Logic - Natural rubber: The domestic production area has entered the off - season, and the raw - material price is stable, but there is pressure from increased overseas arrivals and weak demand. - Synthetic rubber: The fundamental contradictions of BR futures prices are limited, with sufficient raw - material supply and cautious downstream buying. The cost support is neutral, and the price is unlikely to rise significantly [4]. Trading Strategy - The short - term activity range of the RU main contract is 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton, the NR main contract is 12,100 - 12,600 yuan/ton, and the BR is 10,200 - 10,700 yuan/ton [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: On November 27, the BR12 main contract price was 10,400, up 40 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week; the持仓量 was 58,829, down 4,201 from the previous day and 9,418 from the previous week; the trading volume was 82,482, down 46,614 from the previous day and 84,873 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 15,450, up 70 from the previous day and 3,420 from the previous week; the long - short ratio was 19.04, down 1 from the previous day and 9 from the previous week [4] - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety**: The 12 - 01 spread was - 52, up 5 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week; the 01 - 02 spread was 5, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 from the previous week; the RU - BR spread was 4,880, up 45 from the previous day; the NR - BR spread was 1,805, unchanged from the previous day [4] - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10,400, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 10,250, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 10,400, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,325, unchanged from the previous day and down 25 from the previous week; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,600, unchanged from the previous day and down 40 from the previous week [4] - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 856, up 26 from the previous day and 103 from the previous week; the import profit was - 707, up 5 from the previous day and 205 from the previous week; the export profit was 1,637, down 5 from the previous day and 295 from the previous week [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 7,200, down 25 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 7,000, down 25 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week; the Yangtze ex - factory price was 7,100, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; CFR China was 820, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [4] - **Profit**: The ethylene cracking profit was N/A, the carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1,814, down 25 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week; the import profit was 288, down 22 from the previous day and 420 from the previous week; the export profit was - 1,071, up 232 from the previous day and down 978 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,363, unchanged from the previous day and down 13 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS production profit was - 302, unchanged from the previous day and up 85 from the previous week [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PG futures prices declined, with the basis at -43 (-57) and the 01 - 02 spread at 109 (-19). Domestic LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China LPG at 4315 (-49), with the propane - LPG price difference narrowing. [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1] - Overall, domestic chemical demand is relatively strong, and civil demand is increasing, but more arrivals are expected in December. Middle Eastern supplies are tight, but as the CP official price announcement approaches, the market may be more inclined to wait - and - see. Additionally, weather and oil prices need to be monitored. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Data Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4310 (+0), in Shandong was 4450 (-10), and in South China was 4335 (+5). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4480 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 5. The 01 - 02 spread was 89 (-1). FEI was 526.79 (+6.79) and CP was 498.8 (+5.8) dollars per ton. [1] Weekly Changes - The PG futures price declined. The basis was -43 (-57), and the 01 - 02 spread was 109 (-19). Domestic civil LPG prices dropped, and the cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4315 (-49). [1] - Warehouse receipts decreased by 54 to 4561 lots. International paper - based prices fell, and the spread strengthened. The ratio of North Asian to North American oil and gas changed little. The domestic - international PG - CP spread was 126 (-2); PG - FEI was 114 (+3). [1] - The premium of East China arrival, North American, and AFEI departure remained flat. Middle Eastern supplies were tight, with a premium of $35 (+13). Freight rates declined slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -55 (+11). [1] - The profit of propylene production from Shandong PDH improved slightly; the alkylation unit improved slightly but remained poor; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good. [1] - Arrivals increased, external sales decreased, factory inventories increased slightly, and port inventories rose. The PDH operating rate was 69.64% (-2.1), and the second - phase PDH of Dongguan Juzhengyuan is expected to restart next week. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have continuously risen to a weekly high, while the driving force for Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has weakened. New cotton warehousing has reached its peak, and commercial inventories are in a seasonal growth cycle. Spinning mills' downstream orders remain dull, and the operating rate has not significantly declined. Overall, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintains a sideways trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 284,007 lots and an open interest of 954,257 lots. The settlement prices were 13,635 yuan/ton for the January contract, 13,595 yuan/ton for the May contract, and 13,715 yuan/ton for the September contract. The ICE December contract settled at 62.77 cents, up 34 points; the March contract at 64.57 cents, up 34 points; and the May contract at 65.75 cents, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning mills in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new machine - picked cotton of grade 31, double 29, with less than 2.8% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The basis transaction price for the 2601 contract was 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US imported 1.499 billion square meters of cotton products, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, the national cotton picking progress in the US was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US imported 9.789 billion square meters of textiles and clothing, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%. The import value of textiles and clothing was $9.53 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, both the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures increased, and prices rose, while the spot market remained stable. Some spinning mills reported that recent downstream sales have slowed down, finished product inventories have increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market has intensified [2] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures have continuously risen to a weekly high, with the main 03 contract settling at 64.57 cents, up 0.53%. The driving force for Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has weakened. New cotton warehousing has reached its peak, and commercial inventories are in a seasonal growth cycle. Spinning mills' downstream orders remain dull, and the operating rate has not significantly declined. Overall, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintains a sideways trend [2] Trading Strategy - Close the long - call options on the 01 contract - Hold the call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2]