| | 首说 | 1.美国公布与欧盟关税协议的正式文件。美国正式下调对欧盟汽车关税至15%,自2025年8月1日起生效。（金十数据） | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【多空逻辑】 9月24日,沪線主力合约区间震荡,成交量为107755手（+54856）,特色量为8526手(+4733),伦保涨0.53%。观货市场成交 | | | | 一般。基差升水缩小。供给端,锲矿价格持平,上周级矿到浓量增加,港口库存照库;煤铁厂亏损幅度收窄,9月国内排产 | | | | 增加,印尼排产增加,镍铁去库;9月国内电解裂腓产增加,出口盈利扩大。需求瑞,三元群产减少;不锈钢厂排产增加; | | | 媒 | 合金与电镀需求稳定。库存来看,上期所减少,LNE增加,社会库存增加,保税区库存减少。综上,有色金属领铜出现反 | | | | 弹,铜存供应端批动,而铁基本面偏弱并有库存压力,预计银价反弹空间有限。 | | | | 【交易策略】逢高法空。 | | | | 【风险提示】美联储降息预期变化,印尼骚乱升级、菲律宾抗议活动升级 | | 投资集略 | | (观点评分:0) | | | | 【多空逻辑】 | | | | ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the unique experience of futures traders during the National Day holiday in China, highlighting the contrast between market activity and personal reflection [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Futures exchanges will be closed from October 1 to October 8, with trading resuming on October 9, indicating a structured break in trading activities [1] - The last trading days before the holiday often see increased market volatility, with potential margin adjustments and risk warnings issued by exchanges [1] Group 2: Trader Behavior - Some futures traders choose to close their positions before the holiday to avoid uncertainties in international markets, allowing for personal time and reflection [2] - Others remain engaged with the market during the holiday, monitoring global price movements and preparing for post-holiday trading [2] Group 3: Personal Reflection and Preparation - The holiday serves as a time for traders to recharge, review past trades, and learn new analytical tools, emphasizing the connection between market activities and real-world economic indicators [2] - Upon returning to the market, traders bring insights gained during the break, ready to face the challenges of trading with renewed understanding and support from family [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product daily report dated September 25, 2024, focusing on cotton and cotton yarn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,530 with a decrease of 25, trading volume of 246,394 hands (an increase of 67,330), and open interest of 525,141 (a decrease of 3,151) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,680 with a decrease of 30, trading volume of 656 hands (an increase of 229), and open interest of 771 (an increase of 305) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 15,083 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; CY IndexC32S price was 20,615 yuan, unchanged [3] - Cot A price was 78.15 cents/pound, up 0.30 cents; FCY IndexC33S price was 21,464 yuan, up 22 yuan [3] Price Spreads - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was -5, down 20;棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was -85, down 19,795 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,150, down 5; 1% tariff内外棉价差 was 1,222, up 21 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market - In India, from September 18 - 24, 2025, the weekly rainfall in the main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 41.8mm, 8.7mm higher than normal and 15.7mm higher than last year [6] - In the US, the average temperature in the main cotton - growing areas (92.9% output share) was 79.07°F, 2.99°F higher than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.48 inches, 0.37 inches lower than last year [6] - This year, Xinjiang cotton output is expected to increase more than expected, while ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average, and large - scale rush to buy is not expected. The expected acquisition price is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg [7] Trading Logic - As new cotton is gradually being acquired, the market focus is shifting to the new cotton opening price. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be some selling hedging pressure on the futures market [7] - In September, the market's peak season has arrived, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so this year's peak season is expected to be average, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate mainly, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly weakly. It is recommended to trade opportunistically [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [10] Cotton Yarn Industry - Last night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated to 13,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35. Cotton yarn futures declined significantly. The pure cotton yarn market generally remained unchanged, and the peak - season trading was not as good as previous years [9] - The cotton - fabric market lacks stamina, with small orders maintained and large orders scarce. There is price competition, and the price difference between different weavers for regular varieties is about 0.2 - 0.3 yuan/meter [12] Group 4: Options Option Data - On September 25, 2025, for CF601C14000.CZC, the closing price was 111.00, a decrease of 27.0%, with an implied volatility of 11.7% [14] - For CF601P13600.CZC, the closing price was 297.00, an increase of 20.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.6% [14] Volatility and Strategy - Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.4409, with a slight decrease in volatility. The implied volatility of relevant options varied [14] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton showed that both call and put trading volumes increased today. The option strategy is to wait and see [15][16]

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - The short - term trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be range - bound. The spot price of coking coal is rising, and some coking enterprises have initiated the first price increase. After the replenishment is completed, the tight supply - demand situation may ease, and the upside space of the short - term futures market is limited [1] Summary by Catalog Market Review - The main contract of coking coal Jm2601 closed at 1224.5, up 1.24% compared with the opening of the day session; the main contract of coke J2601 closed at 1730.0, up 0.73%. At night, Jm2601 closed at 1223.5, down 0.08% from the day - session close, and J2601 closed at 1726.0, down 0.23% from the day - session close [1] Important Information - In mid - September, key steel enterprises produced 2073 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 207.3 million tons, a 0.6% decrease. Steel inventory was 1529 million tons, a 3.4% decrease [1] - On September 24, some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, and mainstream coking enterprises planned to raise the coke price on the 25th, intensifying the game between coking and steel enterprises [1] - From the settlement on September 29, the daily price limit of iron ore futures contracts will be adjusted to 11%, and the trading margin to 13%; for coke futures contracts, the daily price limit will be 11% with the margin unchanged; for coking coal futures contracts, the daily price limit will be 11% and the margin will be 15% [1] - From the settlement on September 29, the trading margin for apple, glass, and soda ash futures contracts at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will be 12%, and the daily price limit 10%; for rapeseed meal, red dates, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, and caustic soda futures contracts, the margin will be 10% and the daily price limit 9% [1] - On September 24, the auction prices of coking coal in Linfen market increased significantly. Among 14 auction results, 13 increased and 1 had a 8% non - successful bid rate, with an average increase of about 92 yuan/ton [1] Market Logic - The spot price of coking coal is rising, and the cost of coking coal for coke has increased. Some coking enterprises have initiated the first price increase. The supply of coking coal is expected to shrink during the National Day holiday, but the supply - demand situation may improve after the replenishment [1] Trading Strategy - Coking coal and coke are expected to move in a range in the short term [1]

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周三尿素主力合约 2601 价格上涨 15 元至 1673 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格下跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 10 元至 1610 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 3290 手至 21.26 万手，空头持仓减 少 6069 手至 25.56 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.94 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.1 万吨；今日开工率 85.2%，较去年同期 85.13%增加 0.08%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 121.82 万吨，较上周增加 5.29 万吨，环比增 | | | | | 加 4.54%。尿素港口样本库存量 51.6 万吨，环比减少 3.34 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 38.6%，环比+0.8%，三聚氰胺开工率 56.7%，环比+1.4%。 | | | | | 4、9 月 2 日印度 NFL 的尿素进口招标，最 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on September 24, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Glass rose nearly 5%, fuel oil rose over 3%, and container shipping to Europe, polysilicon, and soda ash rose over 2%. In terms of declines, rapeseed meal fell nearly 3%, rapeseed oil fell over 1%, and lithium carbonate and soybean meal fell nearly 1%. Stock index futures of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose 1.69%, 0.94%, 3.90%, and 3.22% respectively. Treasury bond futures of 2-year (TS), 5-year (TF), 10-year (T), and 30-year (TL) fell 0.03%, 0.08%, 0.10%, and 0.41% respectively [5] - As of 15:31 on September 24, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai Gold 2512 inflowed 1.12 billion yuan, CSI 500 2512 inflowed 616 million yuan, and Shanghai Silver 2512 inflowed 424 million yuan. In terms of capital outflow, CSI 1000 2512 outflowed 3.235 billion yuan, CSI 300 2512 outflowed 2.086 billion yuan, and rapeseed oil 2601 outflowed 434 million yuan [7] 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Shanghai copper opened high and moved higher, showing a strong oscillation. The supply of copper concentrate and refined copper is tight. The TC/RC fees are weakly stable, and smelters' profitability is under pressure. The supply of scrap copper will decrease significantly in September, and the import of refined copper has declined. The demand is driven by pre - holiday restocking, but overseas macro factors still impact copper prices, and copper prices fluctuate narrowly [9] - **Crude Oil**: The peak travel season for crude oil is over. The overall oil inventory in the US has increased, and the refinery operating rate has declined. OPEC+ will implement a production adjustment in October 2025, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The price of Saudi Aramco's flagship product has been cut. The geopolitical situation and demand concerns co - exist, and it is recommended to short on rallies [10][11] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt开工率 has slightly declined but is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expected production in September has increased. The downstream operating rate has risen, but is restricted by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will oscillate downward [12] - **PP**: The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded, and the enterprise operating rate has increased. The cost has rebounded due to the oil price. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is less than expected. It is expected that PP will oscillate [14] - **Plastic**: The plastic开工率 has declined, and the downstream operating rate has increased. The cost has rebounded. New production capacity is being put into operation, and the demand in the peak season is less than expected. It is expected that plastic will oscillate [15][16] - **PVC**: The PVC开工率 has decreased, and the downstream operating rate has increased. The export expectation has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The real - estate market is still in adjustment. The cost support is strengthening, and it is expected that PVC will be under pressure and decline [17] - **Urea**: Urea opened high and moved low, with a slightly strong oscillation. The spot sentiment has improved slightly, but the price is still weak. The daily production has recovered, and the demand is mainly for pre - holiday restocking. The inventory is high, and the supply - demand is loose. The upward space of the futures price is limited [18][19]

【冠通研究】 沥青：高开后震荡运行 制作日期：2025年9月24日 【策略分析】 逢高做空 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.5个百分点至34.4%，较去年同期高了6.2个百分点，沥青开 工率小幅回落，仍处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，9月份国内沥青预计排产268.6万吨， 环比增加27.3万吨，增幅为11.3%，同比增加68.3万吨，增幅为34.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率 上涨，其中道路沥青开工环比上涨1.69个百分点至30.31%，只是仍处于近年同期最低水平，受到资金 和部分地区降雨高温制约。上周，华北地区多执行前期合同，出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增 加31.10%至31.36万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比有所下降，仍处于近年来同期 的最低位。本周东明石化、山东金诚等装置稳定生产，河南丰利有复产计划，沥青产量将有所增加， 北方天气尚可，多地项目赶工，只是南方个别地区降雨增加，受到台风的影响，另外，资金端制约， 市场谨慎，影响沥青需求。供应过剩加剧下，近期原油期价下跌，沥青成本端支撑走弱。预计沥青 期价震荡下行。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 【基本面跟踪】 基本面上看，供应端， ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - On September 23, the Shanghai nickel main contract oscillated at a low level, with trading volume of 52,899 thousand (-13,200) and open interest of 37,993 lots (-7,075). LME nickel rose 0.83%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. Considering the supply side, nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals increased, and port inventories accumulated. The loss of nickel-iron plants narrowed, domestic production in September increased, as did Indonesia's production, and nickel-iron inventories decreased. In September, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production decreased, stainless steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable. In terms of inventory, SHFE decreased, LME increased, social inventories increased, and bonded area inventories decreased. With the Fed's interest rate cut implemented, the nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2]. - On September 23, the stainless steel main contract oscillated within a range, with trading volume of 139,017 lots (+402) and open interest of 123,891 lots (-6,126). The spot market saw fair trading at low prices, and the basis premium widened. In terms of inventory, SHFE inventories decreased, and last week's 300-series social inventories were 593,400 tons (-2,900). On the supply side, stainless steel production in September increased. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. At the cost end, high-nickel pig iron prices rose, as did high-carbon ferrochrome prices. Although the fundamentals are loose, the cost end provides support and inventory pressure is not significant, so prices are expected to oscillate within a range [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 23, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel's near-month, continuous first, continuous second, and continuous third contracts were 120,730 yuan/ton, 120,910 yuan/ton, 121,100 yuan/ton, and 121,340 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline compared to the previous day. LME 3 - month nickel's spot official price was 15,415 dollars, the electronic - disk closing price was 15,340 dollars, and the on - site closing price was 15,354 dollars, with increases compared to the previous day [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai nickel's trading volume was 52,899 thousand (-13,200), and open interest was 37,993 lots (-7,075). LME 3 - month nickel's trading volume was 5,176 lots (+1,152) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE nickel inventories decreased, while LME nickel inventories increased. SMM China port nickel ore total inventories were 9.71 million wet tons (+180,000), SMM Shanghai bonded area nickel inventories decreased by 600 tons, and SMM pure nickel social inventories increased [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and SHFE nickel active contract closing price was 1,220 yuan/ton (-80). The price spreads between different contracts also showed certain changes [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 23, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel's near - month, continuous first, continuous second, and continuous third contracts were 12,785 yuan/ton, 12,925 yuan/ton, 12,940 yuan/ton, and 12,990 yuan/ton respectively, with slight changes compared to the previous day [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai stainless steel was 139,017 lots (+402), and open interest was 123,891 lots (-6,126) [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE stainless steel inventories decreased, and last week's 300 - series social inventories were 593,400 tons (-2,900) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis between 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price and active contract was 20 yuan/ton, and the price spreads between different contracts also changed [2]. Market News - Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) has imposed sanctions on 25 nickel mining companies in Southeast Sulawesi. A total of 190 general mining licenses were suspended, and the sanctions include a suspension of mining activities for up to 60 days. Once companies submit reclamation plans and necessary guarantees, the sanctions will be lifted [2]. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: Short on rallies [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 24, 2025 1. Market Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract on September 23 was 11,430, a daily decrease of 75 and a weekly decrease of 245. The open interest was 65,588, a daily decrease of 4,718 but a weekly increase of 1,372. The trading volume was 109,780, a daily increase of 13,914 and a weekly increase of 35,016 [3][13][23]. - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price dropped to 11,500, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 200. The Chuanhua market price remained at 11,450, with no daily change but a weekly decrease of 100. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged daily but down 200 weekly [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Trade**: The spot processing profit was - 237, with a weekly decrease of 47. The import profit was - 83,069, a daily decrease of 62 but a weekly increase of 1,407. The export profit was 19, a daily decrease of 133 and a weekly decrease of 4 [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 9,350, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 150. The Jiangsu market price was 9,150, also down 50 daily and 150 weekly. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,150, unchanged daily but down 100 weekly [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Trade**: The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 336, a daily increase of 140 and a weekly increase of 200. The import profit was 478, a daily decrease of 51 but a weekly increase of 91. The export profit was - 996, a daily decrease of 98 and a weekly decrease of 47 [3][13][23]. Downstream Products - The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 985, unchanged daily but up 160 weekly. The ABS production profit data was not available [3][13][23]. Price Spreads - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 50,063, a daily increase of 4,628 but a weekly decrease of 1,887. The NR - BR spread was - 53,193, a daily increase of 4,688 and a weekly decrease of 1,692. The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,280, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 170 [3][13][23]. - **Intra - variety Spreads**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 100, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50. The styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, with no daily or weekly change [3][13][23]. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the synthetic rubber market, including futures and spot prices, processing profits, import and export profits, and price spreads of BR, BD, and their downstream products. It shows the dynamic changes in the market over a week, which can help investors understand the market trends and potential investment opportunities in the synthetic rubber industry.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For polysilicon: Buy after the price pullback stabilizes [1] - For industrial silicon: Participate in short - term long positions and follow the trend [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polysilicon's long - term price is likely to rise. Although there are short - term negative factors, the best strategy is to wait for the price to pull back and stabilize before taking long positions [4]. - For industrial silicon, due to its current inventory structure and the limited impact of price on supply, the production schedule adjustment in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on the price. The short - term strategy is to take long positions and follow the trend [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Supply and demand**: In September, the silicon wafer production schedule increased by 6GW to 58GW compared to August, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 116,000 tons. The overall polysilicon operating rate changed little, and the output is expected to remain around 130,000 tons. The current physical inventory of polysilicon is about 450,000 tons, with upstream inventory of about 200,000 tons and downstream raw material inventory of about 300,000 tons (including pre - purchases) [4]. - **Price trend**: In the long - term, the spot price of polysilicon is likely to rise. On September 19, there were rumors of factory复产 and cancellation of production cuts in October, which was a short - term negative for polysilicon futures. Currently, the spot price is rising steadily, and the 11 - contract is facing pressure from warrant cancellation, with short - term fluctuations [4]. - **Trading strategy**: Unilateral: Take long positions after a sufficient pullback; Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage for contracts 2511 and 2512; Options: None [5]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply and demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC was 48,600 tons, a 0.61% decrease; the weekly output of polysilicon was 31,300 tons, a 0.32% increase; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 57.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 55.5%, unchanged. The weekly output of industrial silicon was 94,700 tons, a 0.81% decrease. The number of open furnaces remained at 314. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 177,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the downstream raw material inventory was 221,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [6]. - **Trading logic**: The current inventory structure of industrial silicon is "low at both ends and high in the middle", prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. Except for leading large enterprises, the industrial silicon futures price of 8,500 - 10,000 has limited impact on supply. The production schedule adjustment of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on the price [6]. - **Trading strategy**: Unilateral: Take long positions; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options; Arbitrage: Close the reverse arbitrage positions of contracts 11 and 12 for profit [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market review**: This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 9,305 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 100 - 250 yuan/ton [10]. - **Downstream demand**: The weekly output of DMC decreased, the output of polysilicon slightly increased, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy decreased. The weekly output of DMC was 48,600 tons, a 0.61% decrease; the weekly output of polysilicon was 31,300 tons, a 0.32% increase; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 57.4%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 55.5%, unchanged [13]. - **Industrial silicon production**: This week, the output of industrial silicon decreased. The weekly output was 94,700 tons, a 0.81% decrease. The number of open furnaces remained at 314. In the short term, the operating rate of industrial silicon in Yunnan and Sichuan is unlikely to be adjusted, and only leading large enterprises in Xinjiang may have adjustment plans [23]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory, social inventory increased, and the downstream raw material inventory slightly decreased. The social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 177,700 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the downstream raw material inventory was 221,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [24]. - **Related product prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon strengthened. The prices of organic silicon - related products, such as DMC and terminal products, decreased slightly. The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates decreased slightly, and the operating rate of aluminum alloy decreased slightly. The price of Xinjiang refined coal increased [29][33][45]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price trend**: This week, the spot price of polysilicon strengthened. The price of N - type re -投料 was 50.3 - 55 yuan/kg, the price of N - type dense material was 49.3 - 53 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 49 - 50 yuan/kg. The price of rod - shaped silicon and granular silicon increased by 1,000 yuan/ton compared to last week [50][58]. - **Silicon wafer and battery prices**: The prices of silicon wafers and batteries strengthened. The price of N - type silicon wafers - 183mm rose to 1.35 yuan/piece, the price of N - type silicon wafers - 210R rose to 1.4 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type silicon wafers - 210mm rose to 1.69 yuan/piece. The price of N - type topcon183 battery was 0.315 yuan/W, and the price of 210R battery was 0.305 yuan/W, both increasing by 0.005 yuan/W compared to last week [64]. - **Component prices**: This week, the domestic photovoltaic component prices fluctuated. The price of Topcon components - 182mm (distributed) was 0.670 - 0.686 yuan/W, the price of Topcon components - 210mm (distributed) was 0.675 - 0.690 yuan/W, and the price of Topcon components - 210R (distributed) was 0.689 - 0.705 yuan/W. In the centralized project, the price of 182 components was 0.658 - 0.675 yuan/W, and the price of 210 components was 0.673 - 0.690 yuan/W [65]. - **Component fundamentals**: Currently, the domestic orders for components are average, and the inventory is moderately high. The component production schedule in September increased slightly to 46GW compared to August. In October, many component enterprises plan to reduce production and have holidays, and the production schedule is expected to decrease [80]. - **Battery fundamentals**: The export demand for batteries is good. The inventory of specialized battery manufacturers is 5.94GW, which is moderate. With the increase in the component production schedule in September, the battery production schedule increased to 57GW [81]. - **Silicon wafer fundamentals**: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises increased, and the weekly output increased to 13.92GW. The silicon wafer inventory is 16.87GW. The silicon wafer output in September was 58GW, an increase of 6GW compared to August [86]. - **Polysilicon fundamentals**: This week, the polysilicon output slightly increased, and the factory inventory slightly increased to 234,200 tons. After the production capacity of an enterprise in Xinjiang's Ningxia project was put into operation in September, the output increased by 2,000 tons. An enterprise in Qinghai was under maintenance, and the Inner Mongolia production capacity of an enterprise in Sichuan may have rotational maintenance. The polysilicon output in September is expected to be flat compared to August, at around 130,000 tons [91].