Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The upward space of methanol 01 contract is limited. The downstream MTO profit is poor, and further price increases may lead to negative demand feedback. The downstream restocking willingness is weak due to profit levels and high inventories, and the inland profit is also poor [4][39]. - Previously, it was recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options for the 01 contract and pay attention to long opportunities in the far - month contracts. Currently, it is suggested to hold the 01 put - selling option until maturity, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of the 01 contract [4][39]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - From November 17 to December 1, the methanol market rebounded from the bottom, mainly due to the expected changes brought by the implementation of Iranian plant shutdowns, which was in line with previous judgments [4][9][39]. 2. Basis and Spread - The basis remained stable, and the near - far month spread rebounded slightly. The near - month price, which was previously oversold, rebounded relatively more due to the change in expectations. On November 17, the basis in East China was - 19 yuan/ton, and on December 1, it was - 16 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread was - 116 yuan/ton on November 17, dropped to - 137 yuan/ton on November 19, and rebounded to - 96 yuan/ton on December 1 [10]. 3. Supply - side Analysis 3.1 Cost and Operation - The profit of upstream coal - to - methanol slightly rebounded. The inland methanol price was relatively stronger than that in coastal areas, and the recent slight decline in coal prices led to the profit rebound. However, it is still the peak coal - using season, and the cost is unlikely to drop significantly, which supports the methanol price. Last week, the coal - to - methanol operation rate remained stable at a high level, while the gas - to - methanol operation rate declined. As of December 1, the Qinhuangdao steam - coal closing price was 821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to November 17, and the Datong steam - coal wagon - board price was 710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. As of November 27, the weekly operation rate of coal - to - methanol enterprises was 82.42%, a month - on - month increase of 0.11 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.17 percentage points; the weekly operation rate of gas - to - methanol enterprises was 45.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.19 percentage points [12]. 3.2 Inventory - The turning point of port inventory accumulation has appeared. After the implementation of Iranian plant shutdowns, the import pressure of methanol in the first quarter of next year will be greatly relieved. As of the week of November 27, the total port inventory was 116.75 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.64 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 16.57 million tons. The inland inventory was lower than the same period in previous years. However, the impact of Iranian plant shutdowns on imports is mainly in January - February next year, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction and high port inventory are difficult to solve in the 01 contract [18]. 4. Demand - side Analysis 4.1 MTO Demand - The profit of downstream MTO has significantly deteriorated, especially in the northwest region, mainly due to the weak price of downstream polyolefins. As of November 27, the weekly operation rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 86.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.76 percentage points; the weekly operation rate of enterprises purchasing methanol externally for olefin production was 82.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.75 percentage points. The MTO demand restricts the upward movement of methanol prices [22]. 4.2 Traditional Demand - The weighted operation rate of traditional downstream industries slightly rebounded, mainly due to the increase in the acetic acid operation rate. However, winter is still the off - season for traditional demand, and the demand for methanol is limited [29]. 5. Summary and Outlook - The market review is the same as the previous part. The view is that the 01 contract put - selling option should be held until maturity, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of the 01 contract. The strategy is to hold the 01 put - selling option until maturity [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 2nd, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1096.5, up 1.86%. After continuous price drops, coking coal and coke saw a technical rebound, driven by basis convergence and improved macro - expectations. Fundamentally, the mine capacity utilization rate declined this period, the refined coal inventory of mines and coal washing plants increased for 4 consecutive weeks, the total inventory was neutral, and the mid - downstream inventory showed a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term oscillating trend [2]. - On December 2nd, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1629.5, up 2.45%. The first round of coke price cut was implemented. Fundamentally, the demand side had a hot metal output of 234.68 (-1.60) tons this period, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants was 46 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, with a short - term oscillating trend [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1096.50元/吨，环比上涨3.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1629.50元/吨，环比上涨10.00元 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量为842409.00手，环比减少9636.00手；J期货合约持仓量为47283.00手，环比减少1696.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 110919.00手，环比减少8149.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为346.00手，环比增加444.00手 [2]. - JM5 - 1月合约价差为83.00元/吨，环比减少7.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为135.00元/吨，环比减少15.50元 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为600.00张，无环比变化；焦炭仓单为2070.00张，无环比变化 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1000.00元/吨，环比上涨26.00元；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1830.00元/吨，环比下降55.00元 [2]. - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为162.00美元/湿吨，无环比变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，环比下降50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1510.00元/吨，无环比变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1720.00元/吨，环比下降50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1670.00元/吨，无环比变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1620.00元/吨，环比下降50.00元 [2]. - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1610.00元/吨，无环比变化；J主力合约基差为200.50元/吨，环比下降65.00元 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1350.00元/吨，无环比变化；JM主力合约基差为513.50元/吨，环比下降3.50元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量为26.60万吨，环比减少1.00万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤库存为305.30万吨，环比增加2.50万吨 [2]. - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.36%，环比下降0.01%；原煤产量为40675.00万吨，环比减少475.50万吨 [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量为4174.00万吨，环比减少426.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.30万吨，环比减少2.10万吨 [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为465.00万吨，环比增加8.10万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为247.20万吨，环比减少6.20万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为1010.30万吨，环比减少27.89万吨；全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为801.30万吨，环比减少 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为13.01天，环比增加0.04天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.29天，环比增加0.24天 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 炼焦煤进口量为1059.32万吨，环比减少33.04万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为73.00万吨，环比增加19.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为4231.51万吨，环比增加255.59万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为72.95%，环比增加1.24% [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为46.00元/吨，环比增加27.00元 [2]. - 焦炭产量为4189.60万吨，环比减少66.00万吨 [2]. - 全国247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.07%，环比下降1.10%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为87.96%，环比下降0.60% [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 粗钢产量为7199.70万吨，环比减少149.31万吨 [2]. - On December 1st, leading steel mills in Hebei and Shandong lowered the purchase price of coke, with a 50 - yuan/ton reduction for wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton reduction for dry - quenched coke [2]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index in November decreased by 0.5 points to 48.2, remaining below the 50 boom - bust line for nine consecutive months, marking the largest contraction in four months [2]. - Jiang Wei, Deputy Secretary of the Party Committee, Vice - President and Secretary - General of the China Iron and Steel Association, stated that the total steel demand has entered a downward phase, and the cost pressure is extremely high. The steel industry in China and Hebei should focus on high - end, green, intelligent and integrated development [2]. - The "14th Five - Year Plan" proposal in Liaoning was released, which mentioned strengthening the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, actively promoting the transformation and upgrading of coal - fired power plants and the replacement of scattered coal, and promoting the peak of coal and oil consumption [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Bullish and Volatile**: Soybean meal, soybean oil, cotton [1][10][13] - **Short - term Volatile**: Rapeseed meal [1] - **Potential to Stop Falling in the Short - term**: Palm oil [1] - **Short - term Bullish**: Rapeseed oil [1] - **Rebound with Pressure**: Red dates [1] - **Short - term Rebound**: Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term bullish and volatile. Brazilian planting progress is slower than last year, and rainfall is expected to be lower than normal. However, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and the Sino - US soybean purchase agreement limits the upside space of far - month contracts [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term volatile. The long - term supply - demand is strong, but the current port inventory is high. Far - month contracts can be considered for long positions at low prices due to the influence of soybean meal weather premium [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Potentially stop falling in the short - term. Although the supply - demand is weak in the short - term, the expectation of the减产 season and the postponement of the EU Zero - Deforestation Act implementation may lead to a price rebound. However, the probability of inventory accumulation in November is high [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish and volatile. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and the optimistic sentiment of US biodiesel and the dry planting weather in Brazil support the price [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term bullish. Coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero inventory of rapeseed, and zero import in November, with a strong fundamental situation [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish. The US cotton harvest is near the end, and the market is trading around the interest - rate cut expectation. Domestically, the cash flow of textile enterprises has improved, but there is still pressure from high inventory and hedging [1]. - **Red Dates**: Rebound with pressure. The new season's supply is expected to be abundant, and the market is in a loose pattern. It is recommended to maintain a bearish attitude in general [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Short - term rebound. The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the Q4 price is expected to fluctuate around the industry's average cash - flow cost. Short - term high - selling opportunities can be focused on for near - month contracts, and low - buying opportunities for far - month contracts after the pressure is released [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.1 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.97 million tons; and soybean meal inventory was 120.32 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.17 million tons [3]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3039 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan or 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3123.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan or 0.51% [2]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is in a loose pattern in the short - term, and the spot basis is under pressure. The one - time price may follow the market [3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of November 28, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, and rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 million tons, both unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2423 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan or 1.18% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2519.47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.9 yuan or 1.48% [4]. - **Market Situation**: The long - term supply - demand is strong, but the current port inventory is high. The far - month contracts can be considered for long positions at low prices due to the influence of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of November 21, 2025, the national key area's commercial inventory was 66.71 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.39 million tons [8]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8652 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan or 0.30% from the previous day. The national average price was 8703 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan or 0.32% [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand is expected to improve, and the price may stop falling. However, the probability of inventory accumulation in November is high [9]. 3.4 Cotton - **Supply**: In the US, the new cotton harvest progress is 79%, and 123.7 million tons of new cotton have been inspected. In India, the daily new cotton listing volume is 1.6 - 2.0 million tons. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87% [11]. - **Demand**: Downstream cotton spot trading has little change, and the spring - summer orders of cotton cloth have increased slightly. The export of textile and clothing in October was under pressure, but it is expected to improve slightly in the last two months of Q4 [12]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract CF2601 closed at 13765 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14936 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.27% [10]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Supply**: The new season's output is expected to be 50 - 60 million tons, and the inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10848 tons, a week - on - week increase of 518 tons [14]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the procurement enthusiasm for new - season raw materials has decreased [14]. - **Price**: The purchase prices in different regions are relatively stable, such as 5.3 - 6.3 yuan/kg in Aksu [14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Supply**: As of November 20, the group's overall slaughter progress was 65.67%. The supply pressure will be gradually released after December. The number of newborn piglets in October increased, and the number of breeding sows decreased [17]. - **Demand**: The downstream slaughter volume increased, and the cold - storage inventory was passively increased. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail catering consumption improved slightly [17]. - **Price**: The futures price of the main contract Ih2601 closed at 11495 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan or 0.26% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 11650 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.09% [16].

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | OPEC+维持产量政策不变，淡季供给过剩仍主导市场走势。地缘：俄乌地 | | 原油 | | 缘仍有扰动，乌克兰袭击 CPC 管道，短期提振油价；核心驱动：淡季供 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原 | | | | 油激增，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化， | | | | 俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 沙特上调 CP 合同价，盘面有所计价，短期回调压力上升。成本端原油受 | | | | 俄乌地缘扰动，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下，沙特上调 12 月份 CP 合同价， | | LPG ★ | 谨慎看空 | 但盘面已计价；供需方面，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左右，下游化工 | | | | 需求存在韧性；库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。策略：上行动力 | | | | 不足，买入看跌期权。 | | | | 现货涨价，盘面转为升水结构，谨慎看待反弹高度。国内开 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年12月2日 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14800，基差-450 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退 ...

2025 年 12 月 2 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡偏强，关注开舱指引 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2512 | 1,636.7 | 0.45% | 705 | | 4,286 | -215 | 0.16 | | 0.39 | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,492.5 | 3.02% | 26,585 | | 38,244 | -1,867 | 0.70 | | 1.03 | | | EC2604 | 1,078.0 | 0.63% | 4,192 | | 18,614 | -129 | 0.23 | | 0.39 | | | EC2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2605 are all "shock - biased strong", with the core logic being the fermentation of optimistic sentiment and the stable shock of steel prices [2] - Due to the approaching major conference, optimistic expectations are fermenting, and the ferrous metals are rising collectively. The supply and demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, with supply slightly contracting but the sustainability of short - process steel mill production cuts in doubt. Demand is also weakly stable, with high - frequency indicators stabilizing at a low level in recent years, and is expected to decline seasonally. Under the dual - weak supply - demand situation, the steel price is supported by market sentiment, and it will run with a strong - bias shock in the short term [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", and the intraday view is "shock - biased strong". The overall view reference is "shock - biased strong", and the core logic is the fermentation of optimistic sentiment and the stable shock of steel prices [2] Market Driving Logic - With a major conference approaching, optimistic expectations are fermenting, leading to a collective rise in ferrous metals. The supply and demand of rebar is weakly stable, with supply slightly contracting but the sustainability of short - process steel mill production cuts uncertain. Demand is also weakly stable, with high - frequency indicators stabilizing at a low level in recent years and expected to decline seasonally. Market sentiment supports the steel price, and it will run with a strong - bias shock in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-01 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周国内聚丙烯产量80.68万吨，相较上周的80.83万吨减少0.15万吨，跌幅0.19%；相较去年同期的67.4万吨增加13.28万吨，涨幅19.7%。（2）聚丙 | | | | 烯平均产能利用率78.14%，环比下降0.14%；中石化产能利用率79.65%，环比下降1.59%。 | | | | （1）聚丙烯下游平均开工上涨0.26个百分点至53.83%。近期包装行业继电商节后订单萎缩，市场需求不佳，行业开工多稳中下行。随着天气寒冷加剧， | | 需求 | 偏多 | 流感等呼吸道疾病进入高发阶段，市场对口罩、消毒湿巾等防护用品的消耗量大幅增长，PP无纺布行业开工+0.58%。西北地区集中建筑施工活动依旧， | | | | 且地暖系统安装与维护需求进入高峰，二 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20251201：区间整理 | | | --- | --- | | 2025/12/1 指标 单位 今值 变动 | | | 16,975.00 0.44% SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,090.00 0.80% | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -115.00 -60.00 | | | 20.00 - 升贴水-上海 元/吨 | | | 美元/吨 -81.80 1.00 | | | 元/吨 -35.00 -25.00 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 10.00 10.00 | | | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -20.00 5.00 | | | 手 43,419.00 -24.23% 期货活跃合约成交量 | | | 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 47,922.00 -0.43% | | | 成交持仓比 / 0.91 -23.90% | | | 沪锌近月-沪锌连一 元/吨 -40.00 -5.00 | | | 沪伦铅价比值 / 0.92% | 8. ...

| 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2025 1 | 年 | 日星期一 | 12 | 月 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2601 合约上涨 0.89%。 研究报告 铁矿周报 基本面：上周，Mysteel 调研 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 81.09%，环比减 少 1.10%，同比减少 0.53%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 87.98%，环比减少 0.60%， 同比增加 0.18%；钢厂盈利率 35.06%，环比减少 2.60%，同比减少 16.89%； 日均铁水产量 234.68 万吨 ...