苯乙烯产业日报 2025-06-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 7018 386476 | -122 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 16850 7月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 374550 7018 | -62793 -122 | | | | | 手) | | | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 303349 | 21711 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -22091 | -5906 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 408567 8040 | 22756 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) -64 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 0 874 | -5067 -11 | | | 苯乙烯:CFR中国:中 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250603：或有反弹 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/3 指标 单位 今值 | | | | 变动 近期趋势 | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,400.00 | | | | -1.06% | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,620.00 | 沪铅期现价格 | | | -0.78% | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -220.00 | | | | -45.00 | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -20.00 | | | | - | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -22.17 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -65.20 | | | | 2.09 -3.80 | | | | 价差 | | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -85.00 10.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 | | | | -50.00 - | | | | 铅 沪铅连二 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 对二甲苯：多 PX 空 PTA PTA：多 PX 空 PTA MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 逢高离场 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG | 基本面数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | 2025-05-30 | 6618 | 4700 | 4349 | 6384 | 3428 | | 2025-05-29 | 6788 | 4814 | 4359 | 6500 | 3558 | | 2025-05-28 | 6590 | 4672 | 4311 | 6386 | 3469 | | 2025-05-27 | 6706 | 4740 | 4387 | 6456 | 3512 | | 2025-05-26 | 6674 | 4724 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial bond sector is "oscillating slightly bullish" [1]. 2) Core View of the Report - Chinese economic data in April showed that fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations, while industrial production and exports were better than expected. In May, the official manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line for the second consecutive month. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks in May, it was conducive to the recovery of export orders to the US. Industrial product prices continued to be under pressure, and manufacturers were cautious about future demand. After the US federal appellate court's decision on May 29, treasury bond futures recovered most of the losses on Thursday, and short - term treasury bond futures may oscillate slightly bullish [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Affected by the news of the reversal of the US tariff ruling, last Friday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated horizontally at a high level after rising. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.56%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.21%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.14%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.04% [1]. Important Information - **Open Market**: Last Friday, the central bank conducted 291.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 142.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, achieving a net investment of 148.6 billion yuan [1]. - **Funds Market**: Last Friday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funds market increased compared with the previous trading day. DR001's weighted average for the whole day was 1.48% (1.41% the previous day), and DR007's weighted average for the whole day was 1.66% (1.63% the previous day) [1]. - **Cash Bond Market**: Last Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds decreased compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield decreased 2.58 BP to 1.46%, the 5 - year decreased 2.63 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year decreased 1.65 BP to 1.67%, and the 30 - year decreased 2.00 BP to 1.90% [1]. - **Other Information**: In May, the central bank carried out 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations. In April, the US core PCE price index increased 2.5% year - on - year, the lowest since March 2021. In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, below the boom - bust line for the second consecutive month. The US president announced to raise the import steel tariff from 25% to 50%. On June 2, it was announced that the US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the lowest since November last year [1][3]. Market Logic - Chinese economic growth in April remained resilient. In May, the manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line, but the production index returned to the expansion range, and new export orders rebounded. Industrial product prices continued to be under pressure, and manufacturers were cautious about future demand. After the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping. After the US federal appellate court's decision on May 29, treasury bond futures may oscillate slightly bullish in the short term [3]. Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [3].

1 | | 收盘价 | 区间涨幅 | 日均成交 | 持仓量 | 持仓变化 | 投机度 | CTD券 | IRR | IRR变化 远期收益 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 量 | | | | | | | 率 | | 两年期 | | | | | | | | | | | | TS2506 | 102.23 | -0.13% | 20925 | 4293 | -88782 | 4.87 | 240024.IB | 0.9% | -1.1% | 1.50% | | TS2509 | 102.40 | -0.23% | 28237 | 111638 | 59652 | 0.25 | 250006.IB | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.38% | | TS2512 | 102.56 | -0.21% | 338 | 3565 | 2343 | 0.09 | 220016.IB | 1.7% | 5.6% | 1.37% | | 五年期 | | | | | | | | | | | | TF250 ...

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 3 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种策 略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口到港节奏，海关通关检 验，油厂开工节奏，备货需 求 豆油 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 美国关税政策，美豆油库存， 生柴需求，国内原料供应节 奏，油厂库存 棕榈 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 3 日 PVC：低位震荡，短期不宜追空 | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | | chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 9-1月差 | | 4764 | 4680 | -84 | -39 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 现货市场价格维持小区间震荡，现货一口价表现坚挺，盘面价格小空间震荡，实盘成交重心 依然偏低，基本面供应增长预期不变，需求未有改善，市场成交承压，华东地区电石法五型在 4620-4750 元/吨，乙烯法在 4850-5100 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 基本面看，当前西北氯碱一体化仍有利润，PVC 高产量，高库存的结构难以缓解。市场持续做空氯碱利 润，PVC 期货价格创年内新低。不过由于 PVC 估值低位，空头止盈意愿也较强，因此不宜追空。 高产量的结构短期难以改变：PVC 检修量低于 2023 年同期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-03锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2509： 1.基本面：原料端，锰矿供应过剩局面维持，市场成交冷清。期货端，节前硅锰盘面持续偏弱震荡，带动现货价格同样偏 弱运行。现货端，硅锰厂报价坚挺，但下游钢厂对硅锰采购谨慎。仍需关注节后硅锰市场实际成交情况；中性。 2.基差：现货价5400元/吨，09合约基差-78元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存186100吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.15天。偏多。 4.盘面：MA20向下，09合约期价收于MA20下方。偏空。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净多，空翻多。偏多。 2 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 ...

2025 年 6 月 3 日 沥青：跟随原油反弹，短线震荡为主 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2506 | 元/吨 | 3,452 | -1.57% | 3,452 | 0.00% | | | BU2507 | 元/吨 | 3,457 | -1.62% | 3,457 | 0.00% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2506 | 手 | 18,125 | 1,173 | 13,727 | (8,388) | | | BU2507 | 手 | 295,344 | (3,202) | 100,590 | (12,522) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 91510 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，5月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，比上月 上升0.5个百分点，制造业继续保持恢复发展态势；中性。 2、基差：现货78245，基差645，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月2日铜库存减1425至148400吨，上期所铜库存较上周减7120吨至105791吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向上运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性增强，铜价震荡运行为主. 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,巴以地缘政治扰动。 ...