原油反弹，关注短期压力位压制 品种 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 原油 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EB 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 PX 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PTA 偏空 偏空 空单止盈 PP 偏空 偏空 止盈后无进场点，观望 塑料 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 甲醇 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 EG 偏空 偏空 空单持有 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PVC 偏空 偏空 空单持有 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 纯碱 偏空 偏空 剩余空单持有 烧碱 偏空 偏空 止盈后无进场点，观望 板块观点汇总 观方面受中美摩擦情绪反复与美国部分银行信贷危机担忧宏观驱动 偏空，但宏观影响最大的铜上周波动有限，表明原油受到的宏观驱动 影响也相对有限（但不排除后续影响放大），原油盘面自日线破位后 不断加速下行主要仍是受制于基本面过剩逐渐兑现带来的中期下行 驱动逻辑所致，OPEC+不断延续增产后，自 9 月下旬以来 OPEC+8 国原 油发货量持续攀升，原油供应量明显放大，并且随着前期发运船只到 港，以及成品油淡季需求拐点，近两周原油商业与炼厂库存均持续累 库攀升，原油过剩逻辑从此前预期转向数据对应开始兑现。目前原油 大趋势依然延续对 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market fundamentals may shift to a situation where supply gradually decreases and demand remains stable. The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and rising demand. The cast aluminum market may be in a stage of shrinking supply and stable demand, with relatively high industry inventory waiting to be reduced through consumption boost [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of SHFE aluminum was 21,045 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 2,829 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,781 US dollars/ton, up 14.5 US dollars. The main contract of cast aluminum alloy closed at 20,515 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in SHFE aluminum increased by 356 lots to 15,149 lots, and the SHFE - LME ratio was 7.57, down 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals A00 aluminum was 20,980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals was 2,820 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 585 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 65 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The basis of alumina was - 9 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national alumina production in the current month was 799.9 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons. The alumina supply - demand balance was 46.85 million tons, up 18.12 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 155,414.4 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons. The export volume of alumina was 25 million tons, up 7 million tons; the import volume was 6 million tons, down 3.44 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.54 million tons, up 1.45 million tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 58 million tons, up 31,034.96 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, up 0.8 million tons [2]. - The import volume of primary aluminum was 246,797.1 tons, and the export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons. The electrolytic aluminum production start - up rate was 98.27%, up 0.16% [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of aluminum products was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52 million tons, down 1 million tons. The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2]. - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27. The automobile production was 322.65 million vehicles, up 47.42 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of SHFE aluminum was 8.60%, up 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 7.55%, unchanged. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 9.92%, down 0.0001%; the call - put ratio was 1.21, up 0.0015 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Reuters survey: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce held talks and phone calls with relevant EU and Dutch officials on economic and trade issues [2]. - People's Daily: China is in a critical stage of transformation and high - quality development, facing external shocks and internal challenges, but its long - term positive trend remains unchanged. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce held a policy - interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - invested enterprises [2]. 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint - The main alumina contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. On the raw material side, the bauxite port inventory continued to decline due to overseas seasonal changes, and the bauxite price remained firm. In terms of supply, the alumina futures and spot prices continued to fall, and smelter profits were damaged, so domestic alumina supply may shrink. In terms of demand, the in - production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, and the demand for alumina remained stable with a slight increase [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - The main SHFE aluminum contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. On the supply side, the weakening alumina spot price maintained good smelting profits, and the production start - up rate remained high. The in - production capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased, and the supply may increase slightly. On the demand side, under the background of domestic macro - economic stimulus and the traditional peak season, the downstream start - up and orders increased, the proportion of molten aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint - The main cast aluminum alloy contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. On the supply side, the supply of scrap aluminum remained tight, providing cost support. Cast aluminum production was restricted, and the supply may shrink. On the demand side, during the traditional consumption peak season, the demand remained stable, but was suppressed by high raw material prices. The industry inventory was relatively high and awaited consumption boost to reduce inventory [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the advantages of the Sina Finance APP as a comprehensive platform for futures trading, emphasizing its efficiency in providing market data, news, and trading capabilities in one place [1][11]. Group 1: Market Comparison - The Sina Finance APP covers a wide range of domestic and international futures products, offering timely data and a professional interface, balancing comprehensiveness and usability [2]. - Competitors like Tonghuashun and Dongfang Caifu provide comprehensive data and strong technical analysis tools but are less focused on pure futures trading, resulting in a more complex interface [2][3]. Group 2: News Comparison - The Sina Finance APP excels in delivering news with a 24/7 fast news push and in-depth analysis, achieving a combination of speed and depth [4]. - Jin10 Data is noted for its speed in global data and news but lacks integration, while Wall Street News is recognized for deep analysis but sometimes falls short on immediacy [5][6][7]. Group 3: Trading Comparison - The Sina Finance APP's main advantage is its ecosystem integration, allowing users to seamlessly transition from market observation to news reading and order placement, creating a smooth experience [8]. - Futures company apps offer official channels that are safe and stable but are limited in functionality, requiring multiple app switches for market data and news, making operations cumbersome [9][10]. Summary - Overall, while single-function apps have their strengths, they fail to meet comprehensive needs. The Sina Finance APP stands out with its "comprehensive market data, fast news, and convenient trading" capabilities, providing an efficient one-stop service for futures investors [11].

融 期货研 | | | 手磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | 沪深300 | 4607.87 | ↑ 1. 53 | | 5513. 9 | | | | | | IF2511 | 4588. 6 | ↑ 1. 57 | -19.27 | 409. 4 | 29776 | ↑ 4631 | 41688 | ↑ 1009 | | IF2512 | 4577.6 | ↑ 1. 63 | -30. 27 | 1057. 9 | 77133 | 1 5676 | 157558 | 1159 | | IF2603 | 4550. 2 | ↑ 1. 59 | -57.67 | 172. 4 | 12638 | 1 467 | 5618 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry is "Cautiously Bearish," with only natural gas having a "Cautiously Bullish" rating [1][2][3][5] 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, suggesting most face downward pressure due to factors like supply - demand imbalances and cost - side weakness. Natural gas is an exception, with potential price increases due to rising demand [1][2][5] 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: Off - season supply surplus is the core driver. There are expectations of easing in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, continuous inventory build - up in the US during the consumption off - season, and plans by OPEC+ to expand production in November, increasing supply surplus pressure [1] - Strategy: Partially take profit on short positions, and focus on the range of [435 - 445] for SC [1][9] LPG - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: The cost side (crude oil) is weak, downstream chemical demand is falling, the basis is weakening, supply is relatively sufficient with rising factory inventories, and downstream chemical operating rates are decreasing [1] - Strategy: Lightly short, and focus on the range of [4050 - 4150] for PG [14] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - Core View: Bearish Continuation [1] - Main Logic: Social inventory is slowly decreasing, but futures and spot prices remain weak. Imports are expected to increase, new production capacity is coming online, and although it's the demand peak season, restocking motivation is insufficient [1][18] - Strategy: Industries should sell - hedge on price increases, and hold short positions cautiously, focusing on the range of [6800 - 7000] [18] PP (Polypropylene) - Core View: Bearish Consolidation [1] - Main Logic: Short - term supply and demand are both weakening, with increased upstream device maintenance and weak demand at the end of the peak season. Oil - based cost support is insufficient, but PDH profit has improved [1][23] - Strategy: Industries should sell - hedge on price increases, hold short positions cautiously, and focus on the range of [6500 - 6700] [23] PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - Core View: Bearish Consolidation [1] - Main Logic: Warehouse receipts have increased significantly, domestic demand is weak due to falling real - estate prices, export growth may not be sustainable under anti - dumping policies, and supply remains abundant [1][27] - Strategy: Given the weak supply - demand situation and low absolute prices, be cautious about short - chasing, and focus on the range of [4600 - 4800] [27] PX (Para - xylene) - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [1] - Main Logic: Supply - side domestic and overseas devices have slightly reduced their loads, demand is currently weak but expected to improve. PXN and PX - MX spreads are at certain levels, and the cost side (crude oil and naphtha) is under pressure [1][28] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions at low prices, and look for opportunities to short on price increases, focusing on the range of [6280 - 6380] [29] PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Devices are under planned maintenance, a new device is about to be put into operation, supply - side load is expected to rise. Downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating rates are slightly differentiated, with polyester inventory accumulating. Cost side is under pressure [2][31] - Strategy: Take profit on short positions at low prices due to low valuations and processing fees, and look for opportunities to short on price increases in the C - structured term, focusing on the range of [4390 - 4460] [32] MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Domestic devices have increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, terminal consumption has improved slightly but is under pressure. New device production and the resumption of maintenance devices have increased supply, and inventory has slightly accumulated [2][34] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on price rebounds, focusing on the range of [3970 - 4030] [35] Methanol - Core View: Cautiously Bearish, with potential long - term bullish factors [2] - Main Logic: High inventory suppresses spot prices, port basis is still weak. Supply - side domestic device maintenance has increased, and although some Iranian imports are affected, the overall supply pressure in October is still large. Demand has no obvious positive factors [2][37] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [37] Urea - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Main Logic: Supply is relatively abundant, demand is weak domestically but export is relatively good. Inventory is continuously accumulating and at a high level in the past five years, and cost support exists [2][41] - Strategy: The fundamental situation is weak, so hold short positions carefully, and consider lightly going long in the medium - to - long - term [2] Natural Gas - Core View: Cautiously Bullish [5] - Main Logic: As the temperature drops, demand is expected to pick up, and the consumption peak season is approaching. Although the supply side is sufficient, demand support is strong [5] Asphalt - Core View: Cautiously Bearish [5] - Main Logic: Cost - side crude oil supply surplus pressure is increasing, and the price center is moving down. Asphalt supply and demand are generally loose [5] Glass - Core View: Bearish Continuation [5] - Main Logic: Real - estate prices are falling, domestic demand is weak, post - holiday factory inventory has increased, and supply is under pressure [5] Soda Ash - Core View: Bearish Continuation [5] - Main Logic: Post - holiday factory inventory has continuously increased, supply is in a loose pattern, and demand is mostly rigid [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; neutral on glass, recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [1][7][9] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; neutral on aluminum, recommended to go long on dips after pullbacks; neutral on nickel, recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][11][19] - **Energy Chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on polyolefins, recommended for wide-range trading; bearish on soda ash 01 contract, recommended a short-selling strategy [1][21][33] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for range trading; bullish on apples and jujubes, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias [1][34][36] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Bearish on live pigs and eggs, recommended to go short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for wide-range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for range trading; bullish on oils and fats, recommended for range trading with a bullish bias [1][38][43] Core Views - The policy level emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the stock market, which boosts market risk appetite. However, there may be a risk of profit-taking after important meetings. The LPR remains unchanged, but there is still a possibility of a cut in the future. The outcome of the Sino-US negotiation at the end of the month will be a key factor determining market risk appetite [5] - The supply of coking coal is expected to gradually recover after the National Day holiday, but the recovery is relatively slow. The first round of coke price increases has started after the holiday, and the demand from steel mills supports the price increase. The price of rebar is expected to oscillate at a low level, with limited room for a sharp decline. The glass market is facing pressure from environmental protection and macro policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [7][9][10] - The global trade situation is tense, but the Chinese copper import situation has boosted market confidence. The copper fundamentals are relatively stable, and the supply-side accidents have a continuous impact. The price of aluminum is expected to remain high, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The supply of nickel is expected to be loose in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies. The supply of tin is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [11][12][17] - The PVC market is facing weak domestic demand and high inventory, and the export sustainability is questionable. The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment rhythm and export situation. The styrene market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies [21][24][25] - The natural rubber market is expected to enter a period of strong consolidation, supported by the firm overseas raw material prices and the reduction of dark rubber inventory. The urea market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the compound fertilizer production start-up situation, urea plant production reduction and maintenance situation, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [27][28] - The methanol market is expected to oscillate, with strong support from the main downstream demand. The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand situation, Fed rate cuts, Sino-US trade war impact, Middle East situation, and oil price fluctuations [29][31] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to oscillate, affected by the Sino-US relationship. The PTA market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the weak macro and cost factors. The apple and jujube markets are expected to oscillate with a bullish bias, supported by the high-quality fruit prices and the approaching new season [34][35][36] - The live pig market is under pressure in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold short positions with a reduced position size and wait for rallies to add short positions. The egg market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the far-month contracts. The corn market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the main contract and pay attention to the 1-5 reverse spread [38][40][42] - The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the harvest pressure and slow US soybean exports. The oils and fats market is expected to have limited downward adjustments in the short term, and it is recommended to go long after the adjustment. The palm oil market is facing pressure from inventory accumulation, but there is also support from the upcoming减产 season. The soybean oil market is facing pressure from high inventory, but the supply gap in November has been narrowed. The rapeseed oil market is expected to have a tight supply situation before the re-import of Canadian rapeseed, and the price bottom support remains [43][46][49] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The policy level emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the stock market, which boosts market risk appetite. However, there may be a risk of profit-taking after important meetings. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The LPR remains unchanged, but there is still a possibility of a cut in the future. The outcome of the Sino-US negotiation at the end of the month will be a key factor determining market risk appetite. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The supply is expected to gradually recover after the National Day holiday, but the recovery is relatively slow. The first round of coke price increases has started after the holiday, and the demand from steel mills supports the price increase. It is recommended for range trading [7][8] - **Rebar**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with limited room for a sharp decline. The RB2601 contract is recommended to look for opportunities to go long around 3000 [9] - **Glass**: The market is facing pressure from environmental protection and macro policies, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance and wait for a reversal before considering going long [10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global trade situation is tense, but the Chinese copper import situation has boosted market confidence. The copper fundamentals are relatively stable, and the supply-side accidents have a continuous impact. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to remain high, and it is recommended to go long on dips after pullbacks. The alumina is recommended to sell out-of-the-money put options, and the cast aluminum alloy is recommended to go long on dips or go long AD and short AL [12][13][15] - **Nickel**: The supply is expected to be loose in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold a wait-and-see stance or go short on rallies [17] - **Tin**: The supply is expected to improve, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18] - **Silver and Gold**: The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence. The precious metal prices are expected to be supported by the interest rate cut expectations and risk aversion sentiment. It is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 11,000 - 12,000 for the SHFE silver 12 contract and 935 - 990 for the SHFE gold 12 contract [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is facing weak domestic demand and high inventory, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment rhythm and export situation. The 01 contract is temporarily focusing on the pressure level of 2450 [23][24] - **Styrene**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend, pure benzene production and imports, and macro data and policies. It is temporarily focusing on the pressure level of 6600 [25] - **Rubber**: The market is expected to enter a period of strong consolidation, supported by the firm overseas raw material prices and the reduction of dark rubber inventory. It is temporarily focusing on the support level of 15,000 [26][27] - **Urea**: The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to pay attention to the compound fertilizer production start-up situation, urea plant production reduction and maintenance situation, export policies, and coal price fluctuations. The reference range is 1550 - 1650 [28] - **Methanol**: The market is expected to oscillate, with strong support from the main downstream demand. The inventory is at a high level, and the market is expected to be weak in the short term [29][30] - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand situation, Fed rate cuts, Sino-US trade war impact, Middle East situation, and oil price fluctuations. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the support level of 6800, and the PP main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the support level of 6500 [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The 01 contract is recommended to adopt a short-selling strategy. The supply is in excess, and the price is expected to decline gradually under the pressure of inventory accumulation [31][33] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to oscillate, affected by the Sino-US relationship. The 2025/26 global cotton production and consumption are both expected to increase, and the ending inventory is expected to decrease [34][35] - **PTA**: The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the weak macro and cost factors. The supply and demand are in a state of slow inventory accumulation [35] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias, supported by the high-quality fruit prices and the approaching new season [36][37] Agricultural Livestock - **Live Pigs**: The market is under pressure in the medium to long term, and it is recommended to hold short positions with a reduced position size and wait for rallies to add short positions. The 05 - 03 spread arbitrage is recommended to be followed [38][40] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the far-month contracts. It is recommended to pay attention to the chicken culling, weather, chicken diseases, and environmental protection policies [41][42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the main contract and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy and weather conditions [42] - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by the harvest pressure and slow US soybean exports. It is recommended to pay attention to the Sino-US trade relationship and the procurement of vessels after October [43] - **Oils and Fats**: The market is expected to have limited downward adjustments in the short term, and it is recommended to go long after the adjustment. The palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 01 contracts are recommended to pay attention to the support levels of 8200 - 8250, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively [43][50]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides investment ratings for various agricultural products, including "Oscillation" for oils and fats, protein meals, corn and starch, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, and double - glue paper; "Oscillation Weakly" for sugar, paper pulp, and live pigs; and "Oscillation Strongly" for logs [1][5][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][18]. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market trends of multiple agricultural products. For example, the price of natural rubber rebounds due to low valuation and bottom - position position - increasing; the inventory of Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate as Brazilian soybean planting progresses smoothly; the price of live pigs rebounds in the short - term but remains under supply pressure in the long - term [1][5][8]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory. The market is affected by factors such as the US government shutdown, trade negotiations, and production expectations. The outlook is for oil prices to oscillate [5]. - **Protein Meals**: With the increasing expectation of Sino - US relations easing, double - meal prices are under pressure in the low - level oscillation. The market is influenced by factors such as international soybean prices, import volume, and downstream demand. The outlook is for bean meal and rapeseed meal to oscillate [5]. - **Corn and Starch**: The port inventory has slightly increased, and the spot price increase has slowed down. The market is affected by factors such as production expectations, weather, and demand. The outlook is for corn prices to oscillate [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: Second - fattening continues to enter the market, and pig prices rebound in stages. However, the supply pressure remains. The market is affected by factors such as production capacity, demand, and inventory. The outlook is for pig prices to oscillate weakly [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The valuation is low, and the rubber price rebounds with increasing positions at the bottom. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - factors. The outlook is for rubber prices to oscillate and seek the bottom [1][9][10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market follows the rise of natural rubber. However, due to high production and inventory, the outlook is for the price to oscillate and grind the bottom, with the possibility of hitting a new low this year [11][12]. - **Cotton**: The increase in the purchase price raises the cost, and the cotton price continues to rebound. The market is affected by factors such as production expectations and purchase prices. The outlook is for cotton prices to oscillate within a range and be slightly stronger this week [12][13]. - **Sugar**: In the medium - and long - term, the driving force is downward, and the sugar price oscillates weakly. The market is affected by factors such as global supply and demand and production expectations. The outlook is for sugar prices to oscillate weakly [13]. - **Paper Pulp**: The spot trading is light, and the paper pulp price runs at a low level. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and macro - factors. The outlook is for paper pulp prices to oscillate weakly [13][15]. - **Double - Glue Paper**: It is the tender season, and the price of double - glue paper stabilizes. The market is affected by factors such as production, demand, and cost. The outlook is for the price to oscillate [16][17]. - **Logs**: Logs oscillate strongly. The market is affected by factors such as port fees, supply and demand, and inventory. The outlook is to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low positions for the 01 contract in the future weeks [18]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including oils and fats, corn and starch, cotton and cotton yarn, sugar, paper pulp and double - glue paper, and logs [20][51][110][123][138][161]. 3. Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards, including "Strong", "Oscillation Strongly", "Oscillation", "Oscillation Weakly", "Weakly", and the corresponding expected price changes and time periods [173].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are all in a state of shock, with the intraday being slightly weaker. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA10 line. The weak fundamentals remain unchanged, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [1]. - The supply and demand of rebar have not changed much. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and the supply continues to contract and has dropped to a relatively low level. However, there are doubts about the continued production reduction during the peak season, and the inventory is high, so the positive effect on the supply side is limited. The demand for rebar has rebounded but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream has not improved. The weak demand continues to suppress steel prices. The weak fundamentals have not been substantially improved, the pressure of inventory reduction is large, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The cost support is relatively positive, and the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate to find the bottom. Pay attention to the demand performance [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, short - term trend is shock, medium - term is shock, and intraday is shock - weak. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is that the weak fundamentals remain unchanged and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply of rebar is low but the positive effect is limited, while the demand is weak. The weak fundamentals have not been improved, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. Steel prices are under pressure, and the subsequent trend is to oscillate to find the bottom. Pay attention to the demand performance [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The US corn report lowered the yield, but the production remains high. The US corn price has declined and may continue to adjust downward. The US corn is expected to trade in a narrow range. China has imposed a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, with the Brazilian import price in December at 2,136 yuan. The northern port flat - price is stable, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is strong. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price has stabilized and rebounded. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn has widened. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is low. The new - season corn pressure has eased, and the Northeast corn spot price has started to stabilize and rebound, but there may be selling pressure in Jilin in late October [4][7]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is weak. The starch spot price in Shandong is around 2,760 yuan, and the Northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has increased to 1.199 million tons, a monthly increase of 5.27% and a year - on - year increase of 46.9%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is still strong, and the enterprise has made a profit. The 01 starch contract has rebounded with corn, but the North China corn price may still decline by the end of October, and the corn starch spot price will also fall later. It is expected that the 01 starch contract will trade in a narrow range following corn in the short term [8]. - The US corn is expected to rebound, and the yield may continue to be lowered, but with an expected increase in production, it will still trade in a narrow range. The quality of North China corn is poor, and the supply period will be extended. The corn spot price will bottom - out and fluctuate. The large - scale listing of Jilin corn at the end of October may bring short - term pressure relief, and the corn price may rebound in the short term. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The market is currently trading on the weakening of selling pressure in the Northeast, and the port spot price has stabilized and rebounded. The 01 corn contract is bottom - out and fluctuating, and the corn spot price still has room to fall [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Data - **Futures Market**: The C2601 contract rose 0.28% to 2,144 yuan, with a trading volume of 597,677 and a decrease of 11.20%, and an open interest of 849,415 with an increase of 6.13%. The CS2601 contract rose 0.78% to 2,429 yuan, with a trading volume of 144,253 and an increase of 53.93%, and an open interest of 200,536 with an increase of 7.48%. Other contracts also showed different price, volume, and open - interest changes [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot price of corn in Zhucheng Xingmao is 2,340 yuan, and the basis is 53 yuan. The spot price of starch in Jiajie is 2,800 yuan, and the basis is 250 yuan. Different regions have different spot prices and basis values [2]. - **Spreads**: The C01 - C05 spread of corn is - 121 yuan, and the CS01 - CS05 spread of starch is 12 yuan. There are also spreads and their changes in other combinations [2]. 2. Second Part: Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn situation, China's tariff policy, import profit, port and regional spot price trends, wheat - corn price relationship, and breeding demand are factors affecting the corn market. The short - term corn spot price is relatively stable, but there are still uncertainties such as the selling pressure in Jilin at the end of October [4][7]. - **Starch**: The starch price is affected by corn price and downstream stocking. The inventory has increased, and the by - product price is strong. The enterprise has made a profit. The short - term starch price will follow the corn price trend [8]. 3. Third Part: Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term strategy of accumulating puts and calls with rolling operations. Two option contracts, C2605 - P - 2160.DCE and C2601 - P - 2080.DCE, are listed with their corresponding underlying prices, closing prices, and price changes [14]. 4. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - There are six figures in total, including the spot price of corn in various regions, the basis of the corn 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of the corn starch 01 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 01 contract, which visually show the price trends and relationships of different varieties and contracts [16][18][21].

研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据来源:SMM W | | | 1.0025年9月中国精炼铁进口量为28367.371吨,环比增加17.29%,同比增加407.65%:出口量1412.095吨,环比减少6.22%,同比 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 资讯 | 增加36.94%。1-9月,中国精炼银累计进口量为185382.768吨,同比增加207.43%;出口量133437.048吨,同比增加64.08%。（净 关总署) | | | | 【多空逻辑】 | | | | 10月20日,沪铁主力合约低位震荡,成交量为68844手(-7491),持仓量为58658手(-1803),伦铁涨0.69%。现货市场成交较 | | | | 弱,甚差升水扩大。供给瑞,锲矿价格持平。上周铁矿到选量增加,途口库存累库;铁铁厂亏损幅度加深,10月国内腓产增 | | | | 加,印尼将产增加,铁铁去席;10月国内电解铁群产增加,出口盈利缩小。需求端,三元排产增加;不锈钢厂排产增加;合 | | | 媒 | 金与电镀需求稳定。库存 ...