1月5日晚，日本民众自发在日本防卫省门前举行集会，反对高市内阁大幅增加防卫支出， 反对日本政府强行推进驻日美军边野古基地建设。 0:00 / 2:14 集会参加者：日本境内70%以上的美军基地被强加在冲绳，一边说着减轻负担，却又把新的基地继续压在冲绳身上，这是绝对不能容许的。我们要与冲 绳民众一起，坚决阻止建设这个基地。认为通过积累武力就能保卫国家，这种想法本身就存在根本性问题。 抗议民众表示，日本政府无视民众对于民生的诉求，大规模推进防卫产业，这种做法不会给日本社会带来任何好处。抗议民众表示，高市早苗此前的涉 台错误言论十分危险，日本政府应正视历史，并及时纠正错误言行。 集会参加者：政府以"反击能力""对敌基地攻击能力"为名，彻底扭转了日本以往的防卫方针，将其变成了侵略战争体制。为此政府扩大防卫预算，包括 修改"安保三文件"、推进武器出口等。我们要把这些问题一一提出来， 用民众的声音表示反对。 集会参加者：这可以说是非常离谱的发言。高市发言完全否定了迄今为止日本的防卫政策，这是一种极其危险的动向。 集会参加者：日本政府说日本这30多年经济持续低迷、长期通缩，于是就要转向通胀。但结果却变成只有物价在不断上涨， ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's monetary policy tools are categorized into general, selective, and unconventional tools, primarily aimed at regulating market liquidity, influencing interest rates, and subsequently controlling economic growth and inflation [1]. Group 1: General Monetary Policy Tools - These tools, known as the "three major weapons," affect the entire financial market, influencing overall credit scale and money supply [2]. - The reserve requirement ratio refers to the proportion of deposits that financial institutions must hold as reserves with the central bank. An increase in this ratio tightens market liquidity, while a decrease releases liquidity and lowers financing costs for businesses and households [3]. - The rediscount rate is the interest rate at which commercial banks can discount their bills with the central bank. An increase in this rate raises the financing costs for banks, leading them to tighten credit, while a decrease lowers costs and encourages lending [4]. - Open market operations involve the central bank buying and selling securities (such as government bonds) in the financial market to adjust money supply and market interest rates. Buying securities injects funds into the market, while selling them withdraws funds, thus tightening liquidity. This is the most commonly used and flexible monetary policy tool [5]. Group 2: Selective Monetary Policy Tools - These tools are more targeted, primarily regulating credit and funding flows in specific areas [6]. - Consumer credit control involves restrictions on down payment ratios and repayment terms for consumer installment purchases, thereby regulating the scale of consumer credit and influencing consumption demand [7]. - Securities market credit control adjusts the margin requirements for margin trading, controlling the scale of credit funds flowing into the securities market to prevent excessive speculation [8]. - Real estate credit control manages the down payment ratios and interest rates for real estate loans issued by financial institutions, regulating the flow of funds into the real estate market and stabilizing prices [9]. Group 3: Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools - These tools are employed when conventional tools become ineffective (e.g., when benchmark interest rates approach zero) to address special economic conditions [10]. - Quantitative easing (QE) involves the central bank purchasing large amounts of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities to inject liquidity into the market, lowering long-term interest rates and stimulating economic recovery. Conversely, quantitative tightening (QT) involves reducing or halting reinvestment in maturing bonds or directly selling assets to withdraw liquidity from the market and tighten money supply [11]. - Forward guidance is a strategy where the central bank publicly communicates the future direction of monetary policy (e.g., maintaining interest rates for a certain period) to guide market expectations and stabilize investment and consumption behaviors of economic entities [12].

新华财经北京1月6日电（崔凯）2025年，美元兑日元结束连续四年上涨趋势，全年呈现显著"V型"走势。年末汇率交投于156上方，逼近 日本当局多次暗示可能干预的160红线。尽管日本央行于12月将政策利率历史性上调至0.75%，为1995年以来最高水平，但因缺乏明确后 续紧缩路径，日元未能实现持续走强。 2025年美元兑日元呈"V型"走势 年初，美元兑日元延续2024年强势，一度升至158.88。随后受多重政策风险冲击快速回落：特朗普重返白宫后宣布大幅加征关税，引发 全球增长担忧；其公开威胁解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，亦引发市场对美联储独立性的质疑，削弱美元信用。避险资金迅速转向日 元，推动美元兑日元于4月下旬跌至年内低点139.88。 年中阶段，尽管部分贸易紧张局势缓和，但政策不确定性持续。日本央行维持利率不变，且对后续加息路径表述模糊，导致市场耐心减 弱。美元兑日元在140至150区间内宽幅震荡。 第三季度成为转折点。高市早苗当选日本自民党总裁并出任首相后，宣布大规模财政刺激计划，引发市场对日本政府债务可持续性的担 忧，推动美元兑日元再度走强，回升至年内高位附近。尽管日本央行于12月将政策利率上调至0.75 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Performance - The Hang Seng Index and other major indices saw mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.0% and the DAX increasing by 0.7%, while the NASDAQ and S&P 500 fell by 1.5% and 1.0% respectively [2][8] - In the US, the S&P 500 sectors mostly declined, with energy and utilities up by 3.3% and 0.9%, while consumer discretionary and information technology fell by 3.2% and 1.5% [8] - Emerging market indices showed positive trends, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 4.4% and the Ho Chi Minh Index by 3.2% [2] Group 2: Bond Yields and Currency Movements - Developed countries' 10-year bond yields mostly increased, with the US yield rising by 5.0 basis points to 4.19% [19] - Emerging market 10-year bond yields also saw increases, particularly in Turkey, which rose by 133.0 basis points to 29.06% [22] - The US dollar index increased by 0.4% to 98.46, while other currencies depreciated against the dollar, including the euro and the British pound [25][35] Group 3: Commodity Prices - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil rising by 1.0% to $57.3 per barrel, while gold and silver prices fell significantly, with gold down by 5.0% to $4317.8 per ounce and silver down by 10.3% to $70.7 per ounce [40][46] - The prices of base metals increased, with LME copper rising by 2.4% to $12510 per ton and LME aluminum by 1.8% to $3010 per ton [46] Group 4: Geopolitical Events and Economic Policies - The US military conducted airstrikes in Venezuela, escalating tensions in the region, as part of a broader strategy against the Maduro regime [56] - Japan's government announced a record-high budget for the fiscal year 2026, totaling 122.3 trillion yen, marking a 6.3% increase from the previous year [61] - The US postponed tariff increases on furniture and semiconductor imports, maintaining the current 25% tariff rate for an additional year [66]

格隆汇1月5日｜埃德蒙得洛希尔资产管理公司的Benjamin Melman和Michael Nizard在报告中指出，美国 抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的直接后果主要集中在石油市场，但真正的经济影响是一个中期问题。他们表 示，能源紧张局势的最终缓解可能会导致通胀下降，并允许降低利率。首席投资官Melman与多资产及 叠加业务负责人Nizard称："如果能出现起码的政治稳定，再加上外国投资的逐步回归，委内瑞拉可能 会再次成为全球经济结构性的通缩因素。"他们还表示："重大的地缘政治冲击从长期来看并不一定会导 致通胀。" ...

Rate Decision Insights - The Federal Reserve's December FOMC minutes revealed a significant internal split, with a 9-3 vote to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5%-3.75%[1] - The dissenting votes included two members advocating for no change and one member calling for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut[1] - The majority favored the rate cut due to increased downside risks to employment and stable inflation risks, suggesting further cuts may be appropriate if inflation trends downward[2] Economic Conditions - Overall PCE inflation and core PCE inflation both stood at 2.8%, with goods inflation influenced by tariffs and service inflation showing signs of moderation[2] - The unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.4%, indicating a softening labor market, while hiring activity remained weak[2] Market Expectations - Prior to the meeting, options markets anticipated a 25 basis point cut and projected two additional cuts in 2026[2] - Following the release of the minutes, equity markets experienced a slight decline, with traders increasing bets on a potential rate cut in April[4] Future Policy Guidance - All participants agreed that future policy decisions will depend on incoming data and evolving economic conditions, with no predetermined path[9] - The uncertainty surrounding the selection of the next Fed Chair adds additional variables to the Fed's independence and future policy direction[10]

"这让我判断，当前的货币政策可能已经非常接近中性水平，"卡什卡利说。 2026年FOMC票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）表示，目前美国利率水平可能已 接近对经济既不产生刺激、也不形成抑制的"中性利率"，未来美联储的政策走向将取决于最新经济数 据。 卡什卡利周一在接受 CNBC 采访时表示，过去几年里，市场和政策制定者一度普遍认为美国经济将明 显放缓，但事实证明，经济表现远比他此前预期得更具韧性。他指出，既然经济在高利率环境下仍能保 持较强增长，说明货币政策对经济的下行压制作用可能并不明显。 卡什卡利表示，美联储需要更多数据来判断，究竟是通胀因素还是劳动力市场变化对经济的影响更为主 导，"然后再从中性立场出发，朝必要的方向调整政策"。 他同时指出，就业已经明显降温，通胀面临的主要风险在于其持续性——关税等因素对物价的影响可能 需要数年时间才能完全传导；而在他看来，失业率从当前水平进一步上升的风险同样不容忽视。尽管通 胀有所回落，但下降速度仍然较慢，中低收入群体的焦虑情绪主要来源于通胀压力。 在谈及美联储人事问题时，卡什卡利表示，他并不清楚美联储主席鲍威尔在主席任期结束后是否会继续 ...

本周视点： 上周国际金价开盘报于4532.41美元/盎司，周中最高触及4550.52美元/盎司，最低价为4273.78美元/盎司，国际金价最终报收于4332.51美元/盎司。在2025 年的最后一周，国际金价下跌了4.41%，结束了此前连续三周上涨的行情。从驱动要素来看，上海期货交易所、广州期货交易所和芝加哥商品交易所上调 了多个合约的保证金并对相关持仓进行了限仓，对贵金属板块造成了压力。 上周国际金价开盘报于4532.41美元/盎司，周中最高触及4550.52美元/盎司，最低价为4273.78美元/盎司，国际金价最终报收于4332.51美元/盎司。在2025 年的最后一周，国际金价下跌了4.41%，结束了此前连续三周上涨的行情。从驱动要素来看，上海期货交易所、广州期货交易所和芝加哥商品交易所上调 了多个合约的保证金并对相关持仓进行了限仓，对贵金属板块造成了压力。 一、市场纵览及后市展望 节前美联储公布的12月公开市场议息会议纪要显示，美联储票委对于近期美国货币市场的流动性进行了讨论。美联储工作人员表示，随着近期美国货币市 场流动性趋紧叠加国债发行的增加，美国国债回购利率保持相对高位且波动放大。较高的国债回购 ...

Group 1 - HSBC's Max Kettner and team maintain an "aggressive risk appetite" stance, nearing maximum overweight in US equities [1][2] - The stock market is currently near record highs following the passage of key risk events in December [1][2] - Mixed US economic data is favorable for the stock market, provided inflation remains neither too cold nor too hot, and bond yields stay away from levels that would be concerning for risk assets [1][2] - Kettner notes that the team's confidence and positioning are slowly approaching overbought territory [1][2]

格隆汇1月5日｜美债价格有望迎来一周内的首次上涨。由于美军抓捕委内瑞拉总统后油价下跌，缓解了 市场对通胀持续的担忧。美国10年期国债收益率下跌2个基点至4.17%，而对货币政策更敏感的2年期收 益率下跌1个基点至3.46%。货币市场已完全消化了美联储今年两次降息25个基点的预期，并认为第三 次降息的可能性约为25%。周一，由于市场担心全球供应过剩导致原油期货价格下跌，全球多数债券随 之走高。委内瑞拉石油产量的任何复苏都将紧随其过去二十年产量的持续下滑，而随着欧佩克+等产油 国增加供应，今年市场正面临巨大的过剩。德意志银行策略师Henry Allen在给客户的报告中写道："地 缘政治冲击在历史上往往不会产生持久影响。这或许令人惊讶，但因为市场通常是根据增长和通胀等宏 观变量进行交易，而非地缘政治冲击本身。" ...