宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2026 年 2 月 11 日 1 月通胀点评 春节错月影响一季度，基期轮换影响全年 1 月 CPI 同比增速低于万得一致预期，PPI 同比增速略高于万得一致预期； 春节错月因素或将在一季度持续影响 CPI 和 PPI 数据，但基期轮换或影响全 年，统计局测算本次基期轮换对 CPI 和 PPI 各月同比指数的影响平均约为 0.06 和 0.08 个百分点，总体较小。 相关研究报告 《2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告学习体会》 20260211 《策略点评》20260209 《策略周报》20260208 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师：张晓娇 xiaojiao.zhang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300514010002 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 ◼ 1 月 CPI 环比增长 0.2%，同比增长 0.2%，核心 CPI 同比增长 0.8%，服务 价格同比增长 0.1 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down from 0.8% in December 2025, and below Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 0.4%[1] - The PPI in January 2026 decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 1.9%, slightly above the expected decline of 1.5%[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI remained flat at 0.2%, while the PPI increased from 0.2% in December to 0.4% in January[1] Group 2: Seasonal Effects and Core Inflation - The late timing of the Spring Festival in 2026 is expected to suppress January's CPI readings but boost February's figures significantly[2] - Core CPI showed a month-on-month recovery from 0.2% in December to 0.3% in January, marking a six-month high, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand[2] - The food CPI turned negative at -0.7% year-on-year in January, down from 1.1% in December, impacting the overall CPI negatively[7] Group 3: PPI Trends and Industry Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed for six consecutive months, with notable improvements in upstream prices for non-ferrous and black metals[8] - The PPI for production materials decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, while the living materials PPI saw a wider decline of 1.7%[8] - The ongoing "anti-involution" market reforms are contributing to price stabilization in certain sectors, with significant increases in prices for educational and entertainment products[8]

Group 1 - The January inflation data in the U.S. is expected to show a moderate month-on-month increase of 0.3%, with a year-on-year growth rate dropping to 2.5% [1] - Historical trends indicate that January inflation data often tends to be higher, which raises concerns among market participants about potential unexpected outcomes [1] - The possibility of companies passing on tariffs imposed during the Trump administration to consumers is being considered as a reason for the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on further interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The interpretation of January's inflation data may be complicated by statistical anomalies, as January is typically a time when companies increase prices [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjusts CPI data for seasonal effects, but some economists believe that residual seasonality still exists, leading to an average inflation rate in January that is 0.03 percentage points higher than other months since 1985 [2] - The increase in January inflation is particularly pronounced in the service sector, where businesses are more likely to raise prices at the beginning of the year [2] Group 3 - Recent data from Adobe indicates significant price increases for online shopping in January, suggesting that retailers may be passing on higher costs to consumers [3] - Economists attribute potential price hikes in January to both tariff impacts and residual seasonality, with retailers possibly using the new year as an opportunity to adjust prices [3] - The overall inflation trend is influenced by both rising goods prices and stabilizing service prices, which may mask underlying inflationary pressures [3] Group 4 - Economic experts believe that inflation will not spiral out of control in the U.S. in 2026, as consumer sensitivity to prices is leading companies to adjust their pricing strategies [4] - Companies like PepsiCo and General Mills are responding to budget-conscious consumers by lowering prices on certain products to attract them [4] - This shift in consumer behavior indicates that businesses are becoming more aware of changing demand dynamics and are less willing to pass on price increases [4]

2026.02. 11 本文字数：2210，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财 经 冯迪凡 当地时间10日，美国众议院否决了共和党推动的一项规则，该规则旨在阻止对特朗普关税政策进行 挑战性投票， 此举是对美国总统特朗普及其国会盟友的重大打击。 具体而言，美国众议院议长约翰逊（Mike Johnson）提出的这项规则被217票反对、214票赞成的结 果否决，值得注意的是， 反对票包括全体众议院民主党议员及三名"反水"的共和党议员。 "我不愿暂停众议院的重要工作，但国会需要就关税问题展开辩论，"投出反对票的共和党议员贝肯 （Don Bacon）表示： "关税对经济造成'净负面影响'，是美国消费者、制造商和农民承担的重大税 负。" 此次投票结果对约翰逊构成重大挑战——在民主党反对的任何议案中，他都承受不起失去共和党在众 议院中所占微弱多数优势中超过一票的代价。 哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院教授福尔曼（Jason Furman）对第一财经记者表示，关税在政治上相对不受 欢迎，"当前美国政治辩论的核心经济议题是可负担性，即物价水平，而关税显然会影响这一议题。" 的确，反对特朗普关税政策的众议员频频提到近期出炉的一份重要报告 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent vote in the U.S. House of Representatives against a rule to block challenges to Trump's tariff policy indicates growing dissent among lawmakers regarding the economic impact of tariffs, which are seen as a significant tax burden on American consumers, manufacturers, and farmers [1][3]. Group 1: Legislative Actions - The House of Representatives voted 217 against and 214 in favor of a rule proposed by Speaker Mike Johnson, which aimed to prevent a challenge to Trump's tariff policy [1]. - The opposition included all Democratic members and three Republican members, highlighting internal party dissent [1]. - Democratic lawmakers are preparing to challenge Trump's tariff decisions, particularly regarding tariffs on Canada, indicating a shift in legislative focus [4]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs - A report from the nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates that tariffs will cost the average American household $1,000 in 2025, increasing to $1,300 in 2026 [1]. - The Yale Budget Lab estimates the annual median cost of tariffs to American families at approximately $1,400 [7]. - The tariffs are linked to rising inflation, with a potential contribution of about 0.5 percentage points to overall inflation rates [7]. Group 3: Political Context - The political climate surrounding tariffs is becoming increasingly contentious, with affordability and rising prices emerging as key issues in the upcoming midterm elections [6]. - Polls indicate that a significant majority of Americans, including over a quarter of Republicans, oppose Trump's tariff policies [4]. - The dissent within the Republican Party reflects a growing concern over the economic implications of Trump's trade agenda [4].

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively rose, with nickel leading at a 4.02% increase and tin at 3.27% [1] - Lithium carbonate surged by 9.18% to 150,260 yuan/ton, while aluminum oxide fell by 0.28% [1][4] - In the black metal sector, stainless steel rose by 2.22%, while iron ore and rebar saw slight declines [1] - Internationally, base metals also experienced gains, with tin up by 2.17% and nickel by 1.6% [1][2] Precious Metals - COMEX gold increased by 1.09% and silver by 2.51%, while domestic gold and silver rose by 0.56% and 1.88% respectively [1][2] Macro Economic Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.2% year-on-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing a 1.4% year-on-year decline [5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net injection of 4.035 billion yuan through reverse repos [5] Currency and Oil Market - The US dollar index fell by 0.28% to 95.59, with expectations of lower non-farm payroll data putting pressure on the dollar [7] - Oil prices rose, with WTI up by 0.73% and Brent by 0.65%, supported by geopolitical uncertainties in the US and Iran [9]

Core Insights - The global commodity market is experiencing significant volatility due to geopolitical easing, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and supply-demand imbalances [15][23]. Market Overview - The overall market is in a fluctuating but strong trend, with the strongest sectors being crude oil, feed, non-ferrous metals, grains, and new energy [22][23]. - Precious metals like gold and silver saw a rise of nearly 30% and 70% in January, respectively, before a sharp decline due to selling pressure following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman [20]. Trading Strategies - Key trading commodities include live pigs, fuel, and soybeans, with a focus on maintaining a cautious approach and locking in profits through phased selling strategies [24][25]. - The strategy for live pigs involved a trend-following short position, achieving an 11% profit before gradually reducing exposure [25][26]. Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar is supporting commodity prices, while geopolitical tensions are affecting energy supply chains [23]. - The end of the supercycle is putting pressure on exporting countries' finances, but it provides some relief for global inflation [21].

Inflation Overview - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month (December 2025: +0.8%) [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from December 2025 (previously +1.2%) [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month (December 2025: -1.9%) [2] Food and Service Prices - Food prices dropped by 0.7% year-on-year in January 2026, reversing a 1.1% increase in December 2025, contributing to a downward pull on CPI by approximately 0.11 percentage points [2] - Service prices increased by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly down from 0.6% in December 2025, contributing about 0.05 percentage points to CPI [2] Transportation and Energy Impact - Transportation-related service prices fell, with airplane ticket prices down 14.3% year-on-year, impacting CPI by approximately 0.16 percentage points [2] - Energy prices decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, with gasoline prices down 11.4%, contributing an additional 0.06 percentage points to the CPI decline [2] Core Inflation Resilience - Despite the overall CPI decline, core inflation remains resilient, with steady price increases in major consumer goods and services [2] - Durable goods prices rose by 6.6% year-on-year, and gold jewelry prices surged by 77.4%, indicating strong consumer demand [2] PPI Recovery and Industry Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline indicates a recovery in industrial prices, with notable increases in the new energy sector and a 22.7% rise in non-ferrous metal mining prices [3] - The prices of educational and cultural products increased by 21.2% year-on-year, reflecting heightened demand ahead of the Spring Festival [3] Future Outlook - February 2026 is expected to see a rebound in CPI due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with anticipated increases in food and service demand [3] - PPI is projected to continue its recovery trajectory, supported by infrastructure investment and manufacturing upgrades, with a potential narrowing of year-on-year declines [3]

澳洲联储成为今年全球首个加息的主要货币当局，其上周发布的最新预测暗示未来几个月至少还会加息 一次。该央行目前预计，今年整体通胀率和核心通胀率都将超过其2-3%的目标上限。 澳洲联储二号人物周三在悉尼的一次炉边谈话中表示，部分物价回升"反映出经济中需求回升对抗供应 限制的潜在压力日益增大"。"如果情况属实，那么通胀高企的风险可能会持续，我们不能让这种情况发 生。" 智通财经APP获悉，澳洲联储副主席安德鲁·豪瑟(Andrew Hauser)警告称，通胀仍然"过高"，对利率制定 委员会来说仍然是一个重大挑战，委员会不能允许这种情况持续太久。豪瑟对通胀的强硬言论促使澳元 大幅上涨，这表明澳元将继续上涨，使其成为今年主要货币中表现最佳的货币。 由于生产率增长长期疲软，澳洲联储已将经济潜在增长率下调至约 2%。豪瑟说："我们必须尊重经济 的运行速度极限，因为如果央行试图让经济运行得'过快'，通胀就会加剧，而通胀是损害生产率增长的 首要问题。这就是我们对提高生产率的贡献。" 在会议的最后一个问题中，这位副主席被问及央行对政府支出的看法，政府支出被认为是导致通胀回升 的原因之一。豪瑟没有正面回答。他说："我从小就被教育，如 ...

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 2月11日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1130.40 | 0.56% | 217933 | 160510 | 【机构观点】 金瑞期货：黄金调整后仍具备上行基础 重点关注沃什政策主张、及非农数据 当前市场情绪仍偏弱，美股维持高位震荡，短期看金银价格仍在进行底部再平衡，金银或延续高波动状 态，走势上不排除出现再次探底与反复拉锯。但中长期看，全球高债务、地缘风险及白银结构性短缺等 核心支撑未变，金银调整后仍具备上行基础。近期需重点关注沃什政策主张、及非农数据。 数据显示，2月11日上海黄金现货价格报价1124.00元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1130.40元/克）贴水6.4 元/克。 美联储洛根表示，美联储的政策立场恰到好处；美联储的政策立场可能接近中性水平，既不刺激也不抑 制经济活动。未来几个月如果通胀回落、劳动力市场保持稳定，就不需要进一步降息。 美联储哈马克表示，当前美联储目标利率"接近"中性水平；美联储的利率政策可能会"在相当长一段时 间内"保持不变 ...