AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 Northlight Asset Management首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利（Chris Zaccarelli）表示，尽管美联储的使命面临双重风险，因为通胀和失业率可能同时上升，但鲍 威尔的发言表明，现在是时候将重点放在就业而非通胀上了。 上周五，在美联储主席鲍威尔为9月降息敞开大门后，黄金一度冲高至3378美元/盎司。周一亚盘，黄金涨势稍微熄火，截至发稿日内微跌0.2%，现报3364美 元/盎司。 分析师表示，短期内金价可能仍将处于盘整阶段，但由于市场对美联储9月降息的预期增强，整体趋势将继续保持积极。也正因如此，美联储货币政策的任 何复杂化都可能限制该贵金属的上涨潜力。 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会的主旨演讲中指出，通胀担忧依旧存在，劳动力市场的下行风险正在上升，美联储可能需要调整政策。受此影响，对货币政策高 度敏感的两年期美债收益率大幅下跌，美元指数回落，这为不生息、且以美元计价的黄金提供了动力。 鲍威尔表示，当前经济形势给美联储官员带来了"充满挑战的局面"。他还表示，关于美国总统特朗普的关税政策是否会以更持久的方式重新点燃通胀，仍存 在疑问。另外，他将劳动力市场的 ...

Market Overview - A-shares continue to reach new highs this week, with daily average trading volume exceeding 20 trillion yuan for two consecutive weeks, reflecting strong market sentiment [2][10] - The bond market experienced a decline, with both interest rate bonds and credit bonds weakening, indicating a potential negative return for pure bond funds [2][29] - Gold prices remain under pressure due to the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and positive geopolitical developments, leading to reduced safe-haven demand [3][36] Stock Market Performance - The A-share market's rise is primarily driven by capital inflow and industry catalysts, with significant structural opportunities present [5][10] - Major indices such as the CSI 500 and CSI 300 saw substantial weekly gains, with the STAR 50 index increasing over 10% [10][11] - The trading volume for the two markets increased by 22.62% week-on-week, with the CSI 300 and CSI 500 seeing higher trading volume proportions [12][13] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a focus on coupon strategies as the market dynamics shift [6][29] - The interbank funding environment has tightened, while exchange funding has loosened, contributing to the overall weakness in the bond market [29][30] Commodity Market Analysis - The Nanhua Commodity Index fell by 0.44% this week, with declines in various sectors including black and non-ferrous commodities [36][38] - Gold prices decreased by 0.23%, while crude oil prices increased by 0.81%, indicating mixed trends in the commodity market [38] Industry Performance - In the industry sector, telecommunications, electronics, and comprehensive sectors showed strong performance with weekly gains of 10.84%, 8.95%, and 8.25% respectively [19][21] - The real estate and coal sectors lagged behind, reflecting a divergence in sector performance [19][21]

24K99讯 上周五(8月22日)，因美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派言论引发美元暴跌，黄金价格飙升。FXStreet分析师Christian Borjon Valencia撰文，对金价技术走势进行分析。 美元指数上周五大跌近1%，意味着以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的买家来说变得相对便宜。 黄金技术分析 Valencia指出，上周五金价大幅上涨，但仍未突破3400美元/盎司大关。鲍威尔的讲话让多头出现，但仍持谨慎态度，因 为在上周初有关俄罗斯和乌克兰的乐观消息传出后，地缘政治风险有所缓解。 Valencia称，如果金价攀升至3400美元/盎司上方，下一个阻力位将是6月16日高点3452美元/盎司，然后是历史高点3500 美元/盎司。 Valencia写道，尽管通胀持续面临上行风险，但上周五在鲍威尔的鸽派讲话突显就业风险后，金价大幅上涨。交易员预 计美联储降息25个基点的可能性为90%，9月前仍有关键数据出炉。 Valencia称，本周美国将公布耐用品订单、国内生产总值(GDP)和美联储青睐的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出(PCE)物 价指数。 尽管并未承诺降息，但鲍威尔上周五表示，风险情势的变化，可能让美联储需要调整政 ...

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase on August 22, closing at $3,367.86 per ounce after reaching a high of $3,378.76 [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, maintained its holdings at 956.77 tons [8] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that changes in baseline outlook and risk balance may necessitate adjustments in policy stance, with a focus on the labor market nearing full employment [2] - Powell emphasized that inflation risks are tilted upward in the short term, while the impact of tariffs on consumer prices is becoming clearer, although the timing and magnitude remain uncertain [2] - Fed officials, including Harmack, expressed caution regarding any rate cuts, noting that the labor market is showing signs of weakness and inflation is still above target levels [3] Credit Rating and Economic Outlook - Fitch Ratings confirmed the U.S. sovereign rating at "AA+" with a stable outlook, citing the country's large economic scale and the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [4] - However, high fiscal deficits and rising government debt levels pose limitations to this rating, with projections indicating that the government deficit as a percentage of GDP will decrease from 7.7% in 2024 to 6.9% in 2025, before rising again in subsequent years [4] Geopolitical Developments - U.S. Vice President Vance mentioned the possibility of new sanctions against Russia to pressure for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while clarifying that U.S. ground troops will not be deployed [6] - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov highlighted the complexities of direct negotiations, stating that the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president is a concern for any potential meeting [6][7] Economic Indicators - The market is closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including Germany's IFO Business Climate Index and U.S. new home sales [9]

克利夫兰联储主席贝丝・哈玛克（Beth Hammack）上周五接受CNBC采访时表示，她支持库克："我了 解莉萨·库克，她是一位杰出的经济学家，为人正直。我认为，美联储维持货币政策独立性至关重要， 这样我们才能为美国民众带来良好的经济成果。" 最新事态发展引发了华尔街对美联储独立性的担忧。特朗普一直是鲍威尔的直言不讳的批评者，他曾嘲 讽鲍威尔调整利率"动作太慢"，还指责鲍威尔"政治化"。 尽管特朗普表示，在鲍威尔2026年5月主席任期结束前，"不太可能"解雇他，但他已开始考虑多位继任 者人选。就在上周，他还威胁要允许推进一起针对鲍威尔的"重大诉讼"，同时再次要求美联储降息。 一直秉持严格"数据依赖型"立场的美联储，自去年12月以来始终维持利率稳定。 本周，在指控出现后，特朗普还施压库克辞职。他上周五甚至表示，若库克不主动离职，就会将其解 雇。这番言论发布后，预测平台Kalshi上"库克今年卸任美联储理事"的概率大幅飙升，从当天早些时候 的约21%升至30%以上。 前波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦（Eric Rosengren）认为，无论是库克本人还是政府，在做出决定前 都需要更多信息。 当被问及美联储理事莉萨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference has shifted market sentiment, leading to a significant drop in the US dollar and a corresponding rise in gold prices, indicating a potential change in monetary policy direction [4][9][10]. Market Performance - On Friday, the international spot gold price opened at $3338.40, reaching a high of $3378.52 and a low of $3321.19, closing at $3371.69, an increase of $33.36 or 1.00% [1]. - The US dollar index opened at 98.63, peaked at 98.83, dipped to 97.54, and closed at 97.72, down 0.95% [3]. - The Wellxin precious metals index opened at 6900.60, peaked at 7035.63, dipped to 6841.03, and closed at 6991.27, up 1.31% [4]. Federal Reserve Insights - Powell's speech indicated a potential adjustment in the Fed's policy stance, suggesting that the door for a rate cut in September is now open, contrasting with previous expectations of no cuts [9][10]. - The labor market is showing signs of significant slowdown, which raises the risk of job losses, prompting considerations for economic stimulus [9][10]. - Powell noted that inflation risks are tilted upward in the short term, but he emphasized that the Fed would not allow temporary price increases to evolve into a persistent inflation problem [10]. Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently in a mid-term bearish trend, with recent attempts to break through key moving averages failing, indicating potential further declines [12]. - The latest net positioning in the dollar futures market shows a net short position of $46.7382 billion, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards bearishness on the dollar [14]. - Gold prices are influenced by macro technical patterns, with significant resistance and support levels identified for future movements [16][19]. Fund Flows and Holdings - The latest data shows that the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has a holding of 956.77 tons, valued at $1.031 billion, down from 965.37 tons the previous week [25]. - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported a holding of 15,288.82 tons, valued at $188.86 million, an increase from 15,071.31 tons [25].

Lee将这种不确定性与大型投资者的行为联系起来，并指出这是机构不愿在4月份市场下跌时买入的一个 关键原因。 他表示，"联储政策的不确定性是他们采取谨慎立场的主要因素，"同时市场波动性也很高。在此期间， Lee与各机构的交流显示，他们的态度是"谨慎但不悲观"，他们"仍在等待更明确的信号"，之后才会积 极投入资金。 这种谨慎且基于数据的分析方式是Fundstrat策略的一大特点。Lee表示，这种策略的形成源于该公司 2014年对科技行业的成功押注。这一决策"强化了超越传统指标、关注长期趋势的重要性"。这种长远视 角如今影响着他对宏观经济状况和美联储政策的评估。 值得关注的是，Tom Lee也是华尔街最著名的加密货币多头。在Lee的领导下，Bitmine Immersion Technologies(BMNR.US)转型为激进布局以太坊储备的先锋。Arkham数据显示，Bitmine周末斥资4500万 美元增持9613枚以太坊，目前持有的以太坊价值70亿美元。 而在此之前，在美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔上周五暗示即将降息后，加密货币跟随大盘飙升。继上周五 创下2021年以来首次历史新高后，以太坊在周末再次刷新新高。周日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole global central banking conference is interpreted as a signal for potential interest rate cuts in September, but deeper analysis reveals a complex balancing act between a weakening labor market and persistent inflation risks [1][2]. Group 1: Dual Mandate Challenges - The current economic environment presents a more complicated scenario for policymakers compared to the clear objectives during the inflation peak of 9.1% in 2022 [2]. - Powell emphasized the need to balance the dual mandate of promoting full employment and maintaining price stability, indicating that the path to potential rate cuts may be slower and more uncertain than market expectations [3][4]. Group 2: Labor Market Risks - A key point often overlooked is that potential rate cuts may stem from concerns over economic deterioration rather than a strong economy [4]. - Powell noted a "peculiar balance" in the labor market, with both supply and demand significantly slowing, partly due to tightened immigration policies, which raises the risk of job losses and increased unemployment [4][6]. Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Despite worries about the labor market, inflation risks remain, with economists concerned that tariffs from the Trump administration could raise prices in the coming months [6]. - Powell seems to lean towards ignoring the impact of tariffs, but he cautioned against assuming that inflation expectations will remain stable, acknowledging the potential for inflationary pressures [6][7]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The market's reaction to Powell's speech may have been exaggerated, possibly due to prior expectations of a more hawkish stance, leading to position adjustments [7]. - Powell's remarks did not yield to political pressure for significant rate cuts, indicating a careful approach to navigating current economic challenges [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a "first decline then rise" pattern in the week of August 18-22, driven by concerns over high inflation and slowing consumer spending, but rebounded strongly after Fed Chair Jerome Powell's dovish signals at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, raising expectations for a rate cut in September [1][2]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose approximately 0.3% over the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased about 1.5% for the second consecutive week. The Nasdaq index saw a slight decline of about 0.6%. The Russell 2000 index, sensitive to interest rates, performed the best with a weekly gain of approximately 3.3% [1]. - Following Powell's hints of a potential rate cut, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell to 4.256%, and the U.S. dollar index decreased to around 97.7 [1]. Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting unexpectedly leaned dovish, emphasizing the fragility of the labor market over inflation concerns. He noted the weak employment report released earlier in the month and indicated that the labor market is in a "new balance" state, which could quickly deteriorate if disrupted [2][3]. - The market interpreted Powell's comments as opening the door for a rate cut in September, with the CME FedWatch tool showing an 83% probability of a cut, up from 75% [2]. Economic Data - Recent economic data has shown conflicting trends, with persistent inflation pressures alongside signs of slowing consumer and employment growth. The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.4% month-over-month, indicating ongoing inflation concerns [4]. - Initial jobless claims rose to 235,000, exceeding the previous week's 228,000, and consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan, fell from 68.5 in July to 67.1 in early August, reflecting increased consumer caution [4]. Upcoming Events and Data - The upcoming week will feature several important economic data releases and corporate earnings reports, including Nvidia's earnings, which are expected to be pivotal for market direction. Other key data includes the PCE price index and initial jobless claims [6][7].

Economic Indicators - The initial value of the US Composite PMI for August is reported at 55.4, marking a 9-month high [1][2] - The Manufacturing PMI initial value stands at 53.3, reaching a 39-month high, while the Services PMI initial value is 55.4, indicating a 2-month low [2] Labor Market Insights - Initial jobless claims rose by 11,000 to 235,000, the largest increase since late May, while continuing claims increased to 1.972 million, the highest level since November 2021 [2] - These trends suggest a potential increase in layoff risks and signs of labor market weakness [2] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Fed Chair Powell's recent dovish signals suggest a possible interest rate cut in September, with market expectations for a 25 basis point cut rising to approximately 85% [3] - Powell indicated that the current economic conditions may require adjustments to the policy stance, balancing inflation risks and employment concerns [2][3] Market Reactions - The US stock market experienced a rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching its first record close of the year, driven by Powell's comments [4] - The energy sector saw the largest gains, up 2.8%, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties affecting oil prices [4] Sector Performance - Technology stocks faced pressure, with a notable decline in AI-related stocks, despite the overall market breadth remaining stable [5] - The expected earnings multiple for the technology sector reached around 30 times, the highest in a year, indicating heightened investor enthusiasm [5]