1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on nickel is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - In the second half of 2025, uncertain events such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and overseas tariff policies will disrupt the market. Domestic policy support is expected to increase, and macro - sentiment will still have a phased impact on nickel prices. Fundamentally, the oversupply pattern of primary nickel is hard to change, the negative feedback from demand is intensifying, and the bottom - seeking process of nickel prices continues. If the support from the ore end weakens, it may drive the valuation of nickel prices further down. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel (which fluctuates with ore prices) can be used as a reference for the lower - end valuation. However, be vigilant about the impact of Indonesian policies and macro - news on nickel prices. In terms of operations, look for opportunities to build short positions on price rallies and use combination strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options to increase returns, while controlling risks [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of 2025, nickel prices first rose and then declined, with the price center shifting down. In the first quarter, policies in nickel - resource countries stimulated price increases, while in the second quarter, trade conflicts weakened demand expectations, and the oversupply situation intensified, leading to a sharp decline in nickel prices. As of June 27, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel contract was 120,480 yuan/ton, down 3.22% from the beginning of the year, and the LME nickel price at 15:00 was $15,195/ton, down 1.1% from the beginning of the year [7] 3.2 Macro - analysis 3.2.1 Overseas - The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm remains uncertain. At the June meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, but the economic outlook shows concerns about "stagflation" in the US economy. The impact of tariff policies on inflation has not yet emerged. The Fed's dot plot shows a 50bp interest - rate cut this year, but more officials prefer not to cut rates. The Fed has also downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and raised its inflation and unemployment rate forecasts. The impact of tariffs on US inflation has not fully manifested yet, but there is still an upward risk of inflation in the second half of the year [12][13][20] 3.2.2 Domestic - The domestic economy is running steadily, but there are still pressures for stable growth. In May 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded, and new export orders increased after the Sino - US economic and trade talks. However, due to the repeated US tariff policies, there is still a risk of decline in external demand. In terms of imports and exports, exports increased year - on - year in May, but the growth rate slowed down, and imports declined. In terms of credit, the social financing and credit data in May improved slightly, but the financial data has not yet shown strong momentum. It is expected that the central bank may continue to cut interest rates, and fiscal policy will further strengthen in the second half of the year [23][24][26] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - side - **Indonesian Ore End**: The PNBP policy in Indonesia has increased the cost of nickel ore sales and use, and the policy may accelerate the clearance of some high - cost production capacities. The supply gap of Indonesian nickel ore can be supplemented by importing from the Philippines. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively firm, but the demand negative feedback may affect the ore price, and the downward space for high - grade ore prices is limited. In the first half of 2025, China's nickel ore imports decreased year - on - year, and port inventories showed a seasonal decline [29][32][40] - **Nickel Iron**: China's nickel iron production continued to decline year - on - year in the first five months of 2025. In Indonesia, new pyrometallurgical projects were put into production in the first half of the year, and the production of nickel iron increased year - on - year, but there were some production cuts due to cost - price inversion. In the second half of the year, the contraction of stainless steel production may affect the demand for nickel iron, and the profit of Indonesian iron plants may be under pressure. The number of Indonesian nickel iron projects to be put into production in the second half of the year has decreased compared with previous years [43][44] - **Nickel Intermediate Products**: In the first five months of 2025, the import of nickel hydrometallurgical intermediate products and nickel matte increased year - on - year, but the growth rate of intermediate products slowed down. The production of Indonesian MHP increased significantly year - on - year, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased year - on - year. In the second half of the year, more attention should be paid to the commissioning of wet - process projects [51][54][55] - **Pure Nickel**: In the first five months of 2025, China's refined nickel production continued to climb, but the growth rate slowed down. Both imports and exports of refined nickel increased significantly. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel and high - grade nickel matte has increased, and the cost range of integrated electrowon nickel will be the focus of pure - nickel valuation in the second half of the year [59][64][67] 3.3.2 Demand - side - **Stainless Steel**: In the first five months of 2025, China's stainless steel production increased year - on - year, and in June, Tsingshan reduced production. In Indonesia, stainless steel production increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year, but production is expected to decline in the third quarter. The apparent consumption of stainless steel increased year - on - year, but the terminal demand is weak. The export of stainless steel increased year - on - year in the first five months, but the impact of tariffs on exports is gradually emerging. It is estimated that the annual demand growth rate of stainless steel is about 3% [69][74] - **Nickel Sulfate**: In the first five months of 2025, China's nickel sulfate production decreased year - on - year. The MHP coefficient remained firm due to the supply disruption of cobalt. The production and sales of new energy vehicles remained high, but the proportion of ternary batteries in power - battery loading continued to be low, which had a negative impact on nickel demand. The consumption of nickel in alloy and special steel increased year - on - year, with a growth rate of 3.6% in the first five months [80][84][88]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The results of the second Sino-US meeting were not significant. The US initiated new home appliance tariff policies and restrictions on key chip equipment. With the 90-day exemption period for various countries ending soon, there is a risk of tariffs impacting the market again in the next two weeks. It's necessary to guard against Trump's potential extreme pressure, similar to the situation in 2018. The domestic economy is entering a seasonal recovery window, and potential macroeconomic positives from the Politburo meeting in late June - July should be watched [4]. - The real estate sales are seasonally recovering from a low level, but the peak season is not booming. The service industry shows structural differentiation and a slight decline from its high level. In May, production and investment in the real economy declined, while consumption took the lead with the boost of fiscal subsidies. The logic of manufacturing rush exports continues, the domestic supply - demand contradiction is marginally cooling, and prices are expected to oscillate upwards. Attention should be paid to whether fiscal policy will further support the economic center in the second half of the year [4]. - Domestic liquidity is generally loose, and overseas liquidity is also tending to be loose due to the Fed's dovish guidance and declining economic data. Financial conditions have significantly improved. Coupled with the expected rebound of the US dollar index, the domestic stock market will receive incremental funds, with inflows from passive ETFs and margin trading funds, while IPO and other equity financing and unlocking pressures remain [4]. - After a short - term rebound, the valuations of various indices are still at a relatively high level in the historical neutral range. The stock - bond risk premiums at home and abroad are low, and the attractiveness of allocation funds is average [4]. - The pressure on the macro and industrial fundamentals is facing a marginal reversal, financial conditions are generally loose, and the valuations of broad - based index markets are generally not cheap. Coupled with the expected return of US tariff policy pressure, the stock market's upward path in the third quarter may be characterized by frequent setbacks, with an overall oscillatory upward trend. Policy - level macro expectations, excessive domestic liquidity, and the support of stable funds will support the lower limit of the stock market adjustment. It is recommended to actively go long on stock index futures during sharp declines in July. In terms of style, first go long on IC and IM, then on IF and IH, or conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on IM and short on IF [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Global Stock Market Performance**: In the past month, A - shares led the global stock market rally, while European stocks led the decline. The performance order is: ChiNext > Dow Jones > Nikkei 225 > FTSE Emerging Markets > Hang Seng Tech > CSI 300 > German stocks > FTSE Europe. Specific index increases include: Shanghai Composite Index 2.29%, Shenzhen Component Index 3.37%, ChiNext Index 6.58%, etc. [8][9] - **Industry Performance**: In the past month, the comprehensive finance sector led the rise, while the food and beverage sector led the decline [12]. - **Futures Performance**: The basis rates of the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IC, and IM) changed by 0.48%, 0.53%, 0.91%, and 1.26% respectively, with significant narrowing of the discounts. The inter - period spread rates (current month and next month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.16%, - 0.2%, 0.16%, and 0.16% respectively. The inter - period discount of IH increased slightly, while those of IF, IC, and IM narrowed slightly. The inter - period spread rates (next quarter and current month) of the four major stock index futures changed by - 0.08%, - 0.12%, 0.21%, and 0.35% respectively. The long - term discounts of IH and IF increased slightly, while those of IC and IM narrowed slightly [16][17] 2. Fund Flow - **Margin Trading and Market - Stabilizing Funds**: In June, margin trading funds flowed in 37.5 billion yuan, reaching 1.84 trillion yuan. The proportion of margin trading balance to the circulating market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 0.02% to 2.27%. The scale of passive stock ETF funds reached 3.0185 trillion yuan, exceeding 3 trillion yuan for the first time, an increase of 68.35 billion yuan from the previous month. The share was 199.594 billion shares, with a redemption of 7.92 billion shares from the previous month [22]. - **Industrial Capital**: In June, equity financing was 541.96 billion yuan, with 6 companies involved. Among them, IPO financing was 8.73 billion yuan, private placement was 533.23 billion yuan, and convertible bond financing was 4.35 billion yuan. The scale of equity financing rebounded significantly to a high level. The market value of restricted - share unlockings (including additional issuance, placement, rights issue, equity incentive, etc.) was 218.5 billion yuan, an increase of 109.98 billion yuan from the previous month, showing a continuous marginal increase and ranking second highest in the year [25] 3. Liquidity - **Money Supply**: In June, the central bank's OMO reverse repurchase matured at 5.298 trillion yuan, and reverse repurchase was issued at 6.3795 trillion yuan, with a net money injection of 1.0815 trillion yuan. The liquidity in the open - market business was marginally loose at the end of the quarter. The MLF was issued at 300 billion yuan and matured at 182 billion yuan in June, with net issuance for four consecutive months, and the overall liquidity supply was neutral and tending to be loose [27]. - **Money Demand**: In June, the issuance of national bonds was 1.5958 trillion yuan, and the maturity was 889.65 billion yuan, with a net money demand of 706.15 billion yuan; the issuance of local bonds was 1.34898 trillion yuan, and the maturity was 484.32 billion yuan, with a net money demand of 864.65 billion yuan; the issuance of other bonds was 7.22604 trillion yuan, and the maturity was 6.6366 trillion yuan, with a net money demand of 589.43 billion yuan. The total bond market issuance was 10.17082 trillion yuan, and the maturity was 8.01058 trillion yuan, with a net money demand of 2.16023 trillion yuan. The debt financing demand in the bond market remained high, driven by the joint efforts of national bonds, local government bonds, and corporate debt financing [30]. - **Fund Price**: Last month, DR007, R001, and SHIBOR overnight rates changed by 3.2bp, - 12.6bp, and - 10bp respectively, reaching 1.7%, 1.44%, and 1.37%. The issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rebounded by 0.7bp, and the CD rate issued by joint - stock banks dropped by 3bp to 1.67%. The fund rate was significantly lower than the 1 - year MLF rate of 2% and slightly lower than the policy rate DR007 of 1.7%. The fund supply was loose, the debt financing demand was strong, but the real - economy financing was weak, and the fund price generally oscillated at a low level [33]. - **Term Structure**: Last month, the yield of the 10 - year national bond changed by - 2.3bp, the yield of the 5 - year national bond changed by - 5.6bp, and the yield of the 2 - year national bond changed by - 10.3bp; the yield of the 10 - year policy - bank bond changed by - 2.1bp, the yield of the 5 - year policy - bank bond changed by - 5.2bp, and the yield of the 2 - year policy - bank bond changed by - 5.2bp. Overall, the yield term structure steepened significantly in June due to the central bank's liquidity injection in the open market, which led to a significant decline in the short - end. The credit spread between national bonds and policy - bank bonds widened at the short - end [37]. - **Sino - US Interest Rate Spread**: In June, the yield of the US 10 - year Treasury bond changed by - 14.0bp to 4.29%, the inflation expectation changed by - 3.0bp to 2.29%, and the real interest rate changed by - 11.0bp to 2.00%. Risk - asset prices rose due to the improvement of financial conditions. The 10 - 2Y spread of US Treasury bonds changed by 5.0bp to 56.0bp. The inversion of the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowed by 9.8bp to - 264.38bp, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.47%. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate oscillated around the central level of the past three - year range [40] 4. Macroeconomic Fundamentals - **Real Estate Demand**: As of June 26, the weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.928 million square meters, a seasonal increase from 2.021 million square meters of the previous week, but at a relatively low level compared to the same period. Compared with the same period in 2019 before the pandemic, it decreased by 32.1%. Second - hand housing sales declined seasonally, with a slight month - on - month decrease, at a relatively low level in the past seven years. The high - frequency sales trends of new and second - hand housing in the real estate market diverged last month, with new housing recovering but second - hand housing falling back to a low level. Overall, the real estate market remained weak, and the pulse effect of the new real estate policies faded. The overall sales center of the real estate market returned to a low level, and more incremental policies were awaited for boosting [43] - **Service Industry Activity**: As of June 27, the weekly average daily passenger volume of the subway in 28 large - and medium - sized cities remained at a high level, reaching 81.26 million person - times, an increase of 1.8% compared to the same period last year and 32.5% compared to the same period in 2021. The economic activity in the service industry declined seasonally from a high level. The Baidu congestion delay index of 100 cities rebounded compared to the previous week, at a neutral level in the past three years. Overall, the economic activity in the service industry tended to a natural and stable growth level, with insignificant monthly changes [47] - **Manufacturing Tracking**: In June, the capacity utilization rates of the manufacturing industry showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of steel mills changed by 0.14%, that of asphalt by 3.8%, that of cement clinker enterprises by 2.06%, and that of coke enterprises by - 2.31%. The average operating rate of the chemical industry chain related to external demand changed by - 0.24% compared to the previous month. Overall, the domestic demand trend in the manufacturing industry rebounded, while the external demand was weak [51] - **Cargo Flow**: Both cargo and passenger flows remained at relatively high levels. The postal express industry dominated by e - commerce and the civil aviation flight guarantee sector dominated by tourism consumption showed strong growth, with continuous weekly increases. The highway and railway transportation were relatively weak, with limited growth rates. Attention should be paid to the potential seasonal decline risk from July to August [56] - **Import and Export**: In terms of exports, the logic of rush exports after the Sino - US trade talks continued to play out. The port cargo throughput and container throughput rebounded after a short - term decline. From July to August, the risk of a second decline after the end of the 90 - day exemption period and the resurgence of tariff frictions should be guarded against [59] - **Overseas Situation**: In May, the US PCE inflation rebounded slightly, with the core PCE reaching 2.68%, an increase of 0.1% from the previous month. Structurally, it was mainly due to the significant rebound in the food and commodity sectors, which began to be affected by tariffs. The service and market - based sub - items rebounded slightly, and the decline of the energy sub - item narrowed, with the month - on - month growth rate returning to 0.2%. Assuming the tariff impact continues for the next three months with a 0.2% month - on - month growth rate, the annualized month - on - month rate is expected to rebound to 2.43%, still below the 2.5% level, providing data support for the Fed's interest - rate cut. Fed Chairman Powell sent a dovish signal during the Senate and House hearings. Coupled with the significant downward revision of the US GDP in the first quarter and the significant decline in residents' PCE income and consumption in May, the financial market began to optimistically revise its expectations for the Fed's interest - rate path. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, the market expects the number of interest - rate cuts in 2025 to increase to 3 times, with a cut range of about 50 - 75bp. The expected interest - rate cut times are in September, October, and December. The probability of an interest - rate cut in July rebounded to 18%, and the probability in September increased significantly. The terminal interest rate after the interest - rate cuts within the year is expected to be in the range of 3.5% - 3.75% [61][65] 5. Other Analyses - **Valuation**: The stock - bond risk premium in the past month was 3.41%, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous month, at the 71.3% quantile. The foreign - capital risk premium index was 4.45%, a decrease of 0.32% from the previous month, at the 29.3% quantile. The attractiveness of foreign capital was at a relatively low neutral level. The valuations of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were at the 77.4%, 68.4%, 75.8%, and 59.1% quantiles of the past five years respectively, with relatively high valuation levels. The valuation quantiles changed by 8.8%, 14.9%, - 0.7%, and - 4.6% respectively compared to the previous month, indicating a marginal slight increase in the attractiveness of small - cap stocks and a marginal significant decrease in the attractiveness of large - cap stocks [68][73] - **Quantitative Diagnosis**: According to the seasonal pattern analysis, the stock market is in a period of seasonal oscillatory rise and structural differentiation in July. Growth stocks are relatively dominant in style, and the cyclical style first rises and then falls. Generally, the stock market tends to rise in July. Attention should be paid to the opportunities of going long on IC and IM during corrections, short - term trading on IF and IH after sharp rises, and medium - term long - term trading on IF and IH after sharp declines [76]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights China's recent request for rare earth companies to submit lists of personnel with technical expertise to prevent the leakage of commercial secrets to foreign entities [1] - The companies involved include upstream and downstream rare earth enterprises, such as processing companies and those manufacturing rare earth magnets [1] - The U.S. has shown heightened concern regarding China's actions in the rare earth sector, indicating that the reported news may not be unfounded [1] Group 2 - Following the U.S. government's announcement of tariffs on China, China retaliated with export controls on seven categories of heavy rare earth elements [1] - The U.S. is reportedly attempting to ease its anxiety over rare earth issues by potentially allowing ethane exports to China in exchange for rare earth materials [6][7] - The situation is complicated by the fact that the U.S. has a significant surplus of ethane, which may not be as critical for China, thus making the trade-off less favorable for the U.S. [11] Group 3 - The article suggests that the U.S. should learn from the EU's approach, which involves a more conciliatory attitude towards China regarding rare earth exports [14] - The EU has expressed concerns about the shortage of magnets affecting European companies and is seeking a resolution with China [14] - The article concludes that if the U.S. continues its current approach without adapting, it will likely remain anxious about the rare earth situation [17]

Group 1 - The article discusses the severe impact of ongoing US-China trade tensions on American ginseng growers, particularly in Wisconsin, which produces 98% of the US ginseng supply [1] - Due to trade disputes, shipments to China have stalled since April, leading to a significant accumulation of unsold ginseng in warehouses and a decline in prices [1][2] - The US exported $32.5 million worth of ginseng to mainland China and Hong Kong last year, accounting for 83% of the global export total for this product [1] Group 2 - Many ginseng growers are exiting the industry due to low prices and high investment costs, with some reducing their planting areas or ceasing operations altogether [2] - The wholesale export volume of ginseng decreased by 10% to 15% last year, attributed to the uncertainty created by the "Trump effect" on trade policies [2] - The domestic ginseng market in the US has shrunk by 25% over the past two years, with growers now focusing on the Asian American community while facing challenges from tariffs and geopolitical tensions [2]

Group 1 - The global trade environment is significantly impacted by tariff wars, leading to increased import costs and reduced export profits for companies, particularly in manufacturing [3][10] - In 2023, global trade growth dropped to 1.7%, a significant decline compared to previous years, indicating a broader economic slowdown [3] - Chinese exporters faced a 15% profit reduction due to tariffs, while the average price of imported consumer goods rose by 8% [3] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector is particularly hard-hit, with a reported 5% job loss in the industry and over 30,000 small businesses shutting down [3][6] - Consumer prices have increased, with the consumer price index rising by 2.5% in 2023, affecting low-income households the most [6] - The job market is tightening, with a reported 5.8% layoff rate and a significant decrease in new job creation, impacting various sectors including IT and automotive [6][10] Group 3 - Companies are encouraged to adapt by investing in employee training and skill development to remain competitive in a changing economic landscape [8][10] - Financial strategies should focus on long-term stability, with recommendations for low-risk investments such as government bonds and fixed deposits [8] - The government is promoting local consumption and innovation, providing support for small and micro enterprises, which could present new opportunities for growth [8][10]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy** and its interactions with **U.S. trade policies**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Recent Changes in U.S. Policies**: The transition to "Trump 2.0" has introduced significant policy changes including trade protectionism, fiscal policies, and immigration strategies, which are reshaping the investment landscape [2][4][5]. 2. **Impact of Trade Surplus**: Asian countries have significantly increased their trade surplus with the U.S., leading to a capital surplus that flows back into U.S. financial assets, illustrating a dual circulation model in globalization [3][4]. 3. **Stock and Bond Market Dynamics**: Despite economic downturns, U.S. stocks attract global capital, while U.S. bonds are viewed as safe havens during financial volatility [4][5]. 4. **Currency Valuation Trends**: The U.S. dollar has depreciated against major currencies, while U.S. bond yields have risen, reflecting concerns over high fiscal deficits and debt levels [5][6]. 5. **China's Economic Challenges**: The Chinese economy is facing persistent deflationary pressures, with trade tensions and export declines contributing to a challenging economic environment [6][9][10]. 6. **GDP Growth Projections**: The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been adjusted upward by 30 basis points to 4.5%, driven by potential tariff reductions and fiscal stimulus measures [8][10]. 7. **Trade Negotiation Uncertainties**: The potential for renewed trade tensions remains, with tariffs already increased by 30% compared to the previous year, complicating future negotiations [10][11]. 8. **Structural Economic Issues**: The Chinese economy is grappling with structural problems such as low consumer spending and a sluggish real estate market, which hinder recovery efforts [13][18]. 9. **Need for Structural Reforms**: Comprehensive reforms in social welfare, tax systems, and debt management are necessary to address the underlying issues in the economy [15][18]. 10. **Technological Advancements**: Despite challenges, China is making significant strides in technology sectors, particularly in AI, where it is rapidly catching up to the U.S. [20][21][22]. 11. **Consumer Behavior Shifts**: There is a notable shift towards local brands and products, reflecting changing consumer preferences among younger generations [27][28]. 12. **Investment Opportunities**: The evolving landscape presents potential investment opportunities, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, despite the overarching deflationary environment [30][31]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Policy Implementation Focus**: The emphasis should be on implementing previously announced policies rather than introducing new ones, with a focus on fiscal stimulus measures [12][19]. 2. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The expectation is that the Chinese economy may remain in a deflationary state for the next year to year and a half, necessitating structural changes to break the cycle [28][30]. 3. **Global Asset Allocation Trends**: Investors are increasingly interested in diversifying their portfolios away from U.S. assets, indicating a potential shift in global investment strategies [5][30].

2008年那场全球金融危机，美国几乎到了"命悬一线"的地步，经济接近崩溃边缘。此时，中国挺身而出，以4万亿的经济刺激计划将美国从濒临绝境中拉了 回来。然而，没想到的是，美国在短短几年后就转身对中国挥起了经济制裁的拳头，关税、制裁、围堵，样样不落。 如今，2025年，轮到美国再次遭遇经济困境，似乎又想伸手向中国寻求"合作"。但中国的态度却清晰明确：你要水喝的姿态我看得见，但我并没有递给你水 壶。这不是冷漠，这是"记性"——你曾经得到过帮助，但今天，你该为自己的选择负责。 回顾2008年，美国金融体系的崩塌让全球经济陷入动荡。当时，中国毅然决然地踩下油门，实施大规模的经济刺激计划，向全球注入信心，避免了经济大萧 条的蔓延。中国政府宣布了总额高达4万亿人民币的救市计划，涵盖了基础设施、社会保障、医疗教育、农村建设等多个领域。这不仅仅是口号，而是实打 实的经济救援行动，成为了全球最大规模的单国经济复苏计划。结果，2009年中国GDP增长了9.2%，2010年甚至达到了10.3%。 眼看美国经济再次陷入困境，2025年4月，特朗普政府突然宣布将276项中国商品的加征关税豁免。这一举措直白地反映出美国已无法承受当前的经济 ...

Group 1: Competitive Landscape and Loan Growth - The competition in the banking industry is intensifying, posing greater challenges for rural commercial banks [2] - From 2024, the loan growth rate is expected to slow down, reflecting a cautious adjustment based on macroeconomic conditions and regulatory guidance [2] - The bank emphasizes "quality growth," focusing on optimizing loan structures and managing risks in a stable economic environment [2] Group 2: Manufacturing Loan Structure - Jiangyin Bank maintains a high proportion of manufacturing loans, with a dual focus on upgrading traditional industries and supporting emerging sectors [3] - Key sectors for manufacturing loans include textiles, machinery, high-end equipment, and intelligent manufacturing, which are critical to Jiangyin's economy [3] - The bank is increasing support for advanced manufacturing and new energy sectors, which are seen as new growth drivers for manufacturing loans [3] Group 3: Impact of US-China Trade Relations - The impact of US-China trade tensions is characterized as structural, with traditional export-oriented enterprises facing cost pressures and order fluctuations [3] - Despite challenges, companies are adapting through green transformations and expanding domestic markets, keeping overall risks manageable [3] - Emerging industries like new energy and semiconductors are experiencing growth, serving as important factors for optimizing loan structures and mitigating risks [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Supply Disturbance, Stable Demand, Limited Downside - 2025 Semi - annual Outlook for Soybean Meal Futures" [2][3] - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Wu Guangjing [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The price of soybean meal futures has limited downside space. The supply side has disturbance factors, including tightened global soybean supply - demand in the 2025/26 season, a tight balance sheet for US soybeans, and uncertain actual supply of soybean meal. The demand side is expected to increase steadily [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1 DCE Soybean Meal Futures Price Review - **First Stage (Jan 10 - Apr 8)**: Prices rose due to a bullish USDA report in January, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade frictions [7]. - **Second Stage (Apr 9 - May 20)**: Prices fell as the market pre - traded the easing of Sino - US trade friction and the spot supply pressure from the concentrated arrival of soybeans in Q2 [8]. - **Third Stage (May 21 - Jun 6)**: Prices rose with the easing of Sino - US trade friction, improved market sentiment, rising US soybean prices, and increased import costs [8]. 3.2 2025 H2 Main Influencing Factors for Soybean Meal Futures Prices 3.2.1 New - crop Soybean Supply - Demand Tightening: Declining Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio in 2025/26 - **Global Soybeans**: In the 2025/26 season, the supply increase is lower than the demand increase. The total supply is expected to be 7.3682 billion tons (up about 3.15% year - on - year), and the total demand is 6.1248 billion tons (up about 3.6% year - on - year). The inventory - to - consumption ratio is about 20.3%, down year - on - year and at a three - year low [12]. - **US Soybeans**: The 2025/26 balance sheet is tight. Production is expected to be 1.1812 billion tons (down about 0.6% year - on - year), and the total supply is 1.2819 billion tons (down about 0.5% year - on - year). Total demand is 1.2015 billion tons (up 840,000 tons year - on - year), and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is about 6.68%, at a three - year low. The low price in 2024 led to reduced production in 2025, and there is room for further production decline due to imperfect weather and potential yield cuts [14][15]. - **South American Soybeans**: In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's production is expected to increase slightly (up 6 million tons to 175 million tons, about 3.55% year - on - year), and Argentina's production is expected to decrease slightly (down 500,000 tons to 48.5 million tons, about 1% year - on - year). The marginal negative impact of South American supply pressure is decreasing [41]. 3.2.2 Soybean Meal Supply: Loose in Mid - year, Decreasing in Q4 - The actual supply of soybean meal is uncertain. Based on seasonal characteristics, it is estimated to be loose in mid - year and decrease in Q4. From the perspective of soybean import expectations, supply is expected to be loose from June to July. From the seasonal perspective of soybean imports, imports will decline from September to October and increase from November to December. There is uncertainty in Q4 imports due to Sino - US trade friction, and the state can release reserves to supplement supply if needed [53]. 3.2.3 Soybean Meal Demand: Steady Growth due to the Recovery of Pig Farming - In H2 2025, soybean meal demand is expected to grow steadily. Pig inventory is expected to increase in Q2 - Q3 2025, and feed production is also expected to increase year - on - year. The decline in the proportion of soybean meal in feed is limited because of the low forward prices of soybean meal futures [56]. 3.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The price of soybean meal futures in H2 2025 has limited downside. It is recommended to go long on DCE soybean meal futures on dips, and pay attention to weather conditions, important USDA reports, and trade agreements [60][61].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, indicating a favorable investment outlook with potential upside [5][10]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the structural opportunities arising in the semiconductor industry due to increasing demand for advanced computing chips and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) in China, especially following the escalation of US-China trade tensions [5][10]. - The company's current stock price reflects a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 42x for 2025, 33x for 2026, and 24x for 2027, suggesting a certain margin of safety in its valuation [5][10]. - The management's confidence in rapid growth is demonstrated through an ambitious stock incentive plan, targeting significant revenue and profit growth over the next few years [10]. Company Overview - The company operates in the electronics industry, specifically focusing on semiconductor equipment, with a significant market share in thin-film deposition equipment and hybrid bonding technology [5][10]. - As of June 23, 2025, the company's stock price is 151.70, with a market capitalization of 424.35 billion RMB [2]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1,003 million RMB in 2025, 1,306 million RMB in 2026, and 1,736 million RMB in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 45.8%, 30.2%, and 32.9% respectively [7][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 2.37 RMB in 2023 to 6.21 RMB in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [7][10]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in hybrid bonding technology, having successfully passed certification with major domestic manufacturers, which positions it well to capitalize on the growing demand for domestic HBM production [10]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is forecasted to reach 41 billion RMB, representing a 52% increase year-on-year, with continued strong growth expected into 2025 [10].