本文来自格隆汇专栏：六里投资报 著名分析师、莲华资管首席投资官洪灝，12月4日谈及了美联储降息、人民币汇率、AI科技等话题，并 且对2026年的市场行情进行了展望。 洪灝指出，无论谁接任美联储主席，都将面临回购市场流动性紧张的局面，因此降息并扩表是必然选 择。 市场预期未来一年将有多次降息， 贵金属价格已反映宽松预期，他预测白银可能涨至80-100美元/盎司。 对于如火如荼的AI产业，洪灝则指出了一则风险，如果企业依赖信贷融资进行资本支出将是未来一个 潜在问题。 洪灝表示，美元处于长期下行趋势，大宗商品将因美元走弱和通胀预期保持强势。 人民币实际有效汇率被低估，有望升值至6.9以下，带动中国资产重估，明年A股可能表现优于H股。 此外，房地产市场调整已持续近五年，但行业仍需时间出清，救助规模或需约10万亿元。 展望2026年，洪灝表示，明年作为五年规划首年，政策支持力度可能加大，流动性环境改善，中国市场 或有望上涨20%以上。 回购利率已经飙升到联邦基金利率之上，这意味着回购市场流动性非常紧张。 所以无论谁明年上任，都将不得不降息，并立即开始重新扩张资产负债表。 主持人：或许，12月降息一次基本已成定局，但20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar reflects China's economic resilience, but it raises concerns for export-oriented businesses [1][3]. Economic Factors - The RMB has appreciated nearly 4% since the beginning of 2025, marking its best annual performance in five years, influenced by a weakening US dollar due to sluggish economic recovery and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - China's economic fundamentals are strong, with a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, and a manufacturing PMI of 50.8% in October, indicating expansion [3]. - Increased foreign investment and active capital markets, with over 300 billion RMB net inflow from foreign capital into A-shares by the end of November 2025, have bolstered demand for the RMB [3]. Expert Opinions - Goldman Sachs predicts the RMB could rise to 6.85 against the dollar in 2026, citing continued strong economic growth in China and potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. - The IMF suggests the RMB is undervalued by 18%-50%, indicating further appreciation is possible, which has caused concern among export businesses [5]. Impact on Different Sectors - Import-oriented businesses, such as airlines, benefit from RMB appreciation as it reduces costs for purchasing aircraft and fuel, with a 1% appreciation lowering domestic airline fuel costs by approximately 800 million RMB [6]. - Export-oriented companies face challenges as RMB appreciation makes their products more expensive in international markets, reducing competitiveness, particularly in low-margin industries like textiles and furniture [7][8]. - Regions heavily reliant on exports, such as Guangdong and Zhejiang, may experience slowed GDP growth due to reduced export growth rates, potentially declining by 2-3 percentage points with a 5% RMB appreciation [10]. Recommendations for Stakeholders - Businesses should consider financial tools to hedge against exchange rate risks, such as forward contracts, to mitigate the impact of currency fluctuations [11]. - Investors are advised to adjust asset allocations, favoring sectors that benefit from RMB appreciation while being cautious of those that may suffer [11]. - Individuals planning to travel or study abroad may find it advantageous to exchange currency now, but should do so cautiously to manage risks associated with fluctuating exchange rates [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is attributed to a combination of strong domestic economic performance and a decline in the USD, with the RMB's middle rate rising significantly this year [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - On December 4, the People's Bank of China announced an increase in the RMB middle rate against the USD by 21 basis points to 7.0733, marking a new high in over a year [1]. - The onshore and offshore RMB both reached new highs in appreciation against the USD since October 2024, with an approximate increase of 1000 basis points year-to-date [1][3]. - As of the report, the offshore RMB was quoted at 7.06079 against the USD, while the spot rate was at 7.0680 [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The recent appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by two factors: strong domestic economic trends and a significant decline in the USD [3]. - Analysts suggest that the RMB's strength is also supported by better-than-expected export performance and a robust domestic capital market since July [3]. - The market anticipates that the RMB will continue to operate in a strong range in the short term, with a focus on USD trends and domestic economic policies [3]. Group 3: Market Predictions and Implications - The market currently estimates an 89% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in the upcoming meeting, which could further influence the RMB's strength [4]. - The strengthening RMB is expected to boost domestic capital market confidence, positively impacting the stock market [4]. - Analysts predict that the RMB could break the 7 mark against the USD, with potential for further appreciation, possibly reaching 6.95 by the end of 2026 [4][5].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the foreign exchange market, particularly focusing on the performance of the Chinese Yuan (RMB) against the US Dollar (USD) and other currencies such as the Japanese Yen and British Pound [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **RMB Appreciation**: The RMB has shown strong appreciation against the USD, driven by a weak USD index and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1][2]. - **Federal Reserve's Influence**: The market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has significantly increased, leading to a decline in the 2-year US Treasury yield and a weaker USD index, which has created a favorable environment for non-USD currencies, including the RMB [1][8]. - **Market Behavior**: In late November, there was a surge in corporate foreign exchange settlements as companies aimed to lock in profits and mitigate risks, which contributed to the RMB's strength [6]. - **Dual-Drive Mechanism**: The simultaneous strengthening of the onshore and offshore RMB rates, along with the central bank's successful exchange rate management, has reinforced market expectations for RMB appreciation [5]. - **Global Economic Factors**: Signs of a slowing US economy, political uncertainties, and concerns over USD credit have weakened the USD index, prompting international capital to shift towards other assets, including the RMB [9]. Additional Important Content - **Yen and Pound Performance**: The Japanese Yen has strengthened due to indications from the Bank of Japan regarding potential interest rate hikes, while the British Pound has rebounded following the UK government's budget plan that alleviated fears of fiscal instability [3][10]. - **Market Volatility**: A technical issue at CME caused a brief disruption in derivatives trading, but it did not significantly impact the overall market trend due to the timing of the incident [4]. - **Future Outlook for RMB**: The RMB is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term, supported by the Fed's rate cut expectations and seasonal settlement demands. However, potential risks include a recovery in the US economy that could lead to a rebound in the USD [11]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the foreign exchange market and the factors influencing the RMB's performance against the USD and other currencies.

Core Viewpoint - The onshore RMB against the USD opened lower at 7.0670, while the offshore RMB was at 7.0624, indicating a slight depreciation of the RMB against the USD [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Movements - The RMB/USD central parity rate was adjusted up by 21 basis points to 7.0733 [1] - The USD index stood at 98.9553 as of 9:30 AM [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The future trend of the USD/RMB exchange rate is expected to be characterized by a depreciation trend (appreciation of RMB against USD) along with volatility risks [1] - Factors supporting the previous strong appreciation of the RMB, such as expectations of Fed rate cuts, stable Chinese economic fundamentals, and seasonal settlement demand, are likely to continue providing upward momentum for the RMB exchange rate in the short term [1] Group 3: Risks and Uncertainties - Potential risks include the possibility of a change in the Fed's policy path if US economic data improves unexpectedly, which could temper rate cut expectations and lead to a rebound in the USD [1] - The global economic environment remains complex and variable, with geopolitical risks and trade frictions potentially impacting market sentiment [1] - Technically, the rapid appreciation of the RMB in the short term has accumulated some correction pressure [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which has reached a 14-month high, signaling potential benefits for various sectors, particularly those with significant dollar liabilities or import dependencies [3] - The upcoming IPOs of domestic GPU companies, Moore Threads and Muxi Co., indicate a shift in the Chinese tech industry from R&D to commercialization, suggesting a maturation of the domestic computing power sector [3] - The rise in metal prices, particularly copper and tin, is linked to global technological upgrades and economic recovery, reflecting strong demand from sectors like new energy and infrastructure [4] Currency Appreciation - The offshore yuan has surpassed 7.06, benefiting sectors such as aviation, tourism, and paper manufacturing, which are expected to see cost reductions due to lower dollar-denominated liabilities [3] - A 1% appreciation of the yuan is projected to positively impact core A-share assets, particularly those reliant on imported materials [3] Technology Sector Developments - The IPOs of Moore Threads and Muxi Co. on December 5 signify a transition in the domestic GPU market, moving from experimental phases to capitalized industry stages [3] - Investors are advised to focus on the supply chain of these companies, including chip materials and packaging/testing firms, as they represent long-term growth opportunities [3] Metal Prices and Economic Recovery - The surge in metal prices is attributed to increased demand from the new energy and infrastructure sectors, indicating a genuine recovery in the real economy [4] - U.S. investments in stockpiling metals suggest a strategic move towards high-end manufacturing, aligning with domestic policies aimed at channeling funds into tangible economic growth [4] Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to identify opportunities in sectors supported by government policies, such as real estate and blue-chip stocks included in the FTSE Russell index [5] - Focus on core industries undergoing upgrades, such as GPUs and robotics, while considering the entire supply chain for long-term investment success [5] - The appreciation of the yuan presents opportunities in sectors directly benefiting from currency strength, with a recommendation to buy on dips rather than chase highs [5] Economic Transition - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the broader economic transition from expansion to quality improvement and from imitation to innovation [6] - Investors should concentrate on companies with core competitiveness while avoiding speculative stocks, as the combination of supportive policies and industry upgrades creates a favorable environment for long-term gains [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is primarily driven by market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December 2024, alongside a backdrop of a weakening US dollar and strengthening domestic economic conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movements - The RMB to USD central parity rate was raised by 40 basis points to 7.0754, marking the highest level since October 14, 2024 [1]. - The onshore RMB closed at 7.0661, appreciating by 51 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - Offshore RMB rose to 7.0585, reaching a new high since October 9, 2024, with an increase of 84 points [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Strength - Experts attribute the RMB's appreciation to two main factors: the strong performance of the domestic economy and the recent decline in the US dollar index [2][3]. - The RMB's strength against the dollar has also led to an increase in the CFETS index, indicating a broader appreciation against a basket of currencies [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the RMB has room for appreciation, caution is advised against betting on a one-sided trend due to potential volatility [4][5]. - The RMB's long-term trend is expected to be upward, with predictions that it may break below 7 against the dollar in the coming year [4]. - The strengthening RMB is anticipated to attract more foreign capital into the domestic market, enhancing the appeal of RMB-denominated assets [5][6].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a downward trend with major indices declining, including the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% to 3894.22 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.19% to 13031.26 points, and the ChiNext down 0.5% to 3055.92 points, with a total trading volume of 1.07 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - The commercial aerospace sector rebounded, with Aerospace Power hitting the upper limit and Shunhao Co. achieving four consecutive trading limit-ups [1] - The coal sector saw a rapid increase, with Antai Group achieving two consecutive limit-ups, and Dayou Energy and New Dazhou A hitting the upper limit [1] - The Fujian sector was active, with Hai Xin Food achieving six consecutive limit-ups and Sun Cable achieving two consecutive limit-ups [1] - The superhard materials concept strengthened, with Huanghe Xuanfeng reaching the upper limit [1] - The AI application sector collectively weakened, with Fushi Holdings dropping over 11% [1] Popular Sectors - The airport and shipping sector saw a short-term rise, with stocks like Huaxia Airlines and Juneyao Airlines increasing in value. This was driven by a joint announcement from two departments to promote the integration of aviation and tourism, aiming to significantly improve tourism service levels by 2027 [2] - The pharmaceutical sector continued to perform strongly, with Haiwang Bio achieving six consecutive limit-ups and Ruikang Pharmaceutical also performing well. The China CDC indicated a peak in flu cases is likely in mid-December, which may drive demand in the pharmaceutical sector [3] Emerging Trends - Cultivated diamond stocks experienced a broad increase, led by Sifangda, with other companies like World and Huifeng Diamond rising by 5%. The upcoming 2025 Cultivated Diamond Industry Conference is expected to boost interest in this sector [4] Institutional Insights - Dongfang Caifu noted a strong expectation for RMB appreciation, which may accelerate foreign capital allocation to the A-share market. The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is attributed to several factors, including Fed rate cut expectations and improved Sino-US relations [5] - Xinda Securities outlined three conditions for index breakthroughs, emphasizing the importance of policy changes from the Central Economic Work Conference, economic data improvement, and significant inflows of resident funds [6][7]

Market Overview - The market experienced a downturn on December 3, with all three major indices declining: Shanghai Composite Index down 0.42%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.68%, and ChiNext Index down 0.69% [1] Sector Performance Financial Sector - The diversified financial sector saw gains, with Ruida Futures hitting the daily limit, and companies like New Power Financial, Nanhua Futures, and COFCO Capital also rising [1] Food Sector - The food sector remained active, with Hai Xin Food achieving six consecutive trading limits, An Ji Food with two consecutive limits, and other companies like Yike Food, Nanjiao Food, and Ziyan Food also increasing [1][3] - Central China Securities noted that despite a slowdown in the food and beverage industry, emerging opportunities exist in niche markets, recommending investments in soft drinks and health products [3] Battery Sector - The battery sector surged, with Longpan Technology hitting the daily limit and companies like Defang Nano, Wanrun New Energy, Hunan Youneng, and Haike New Source following suit [1][5] - The price of lithium iron phosphate is increasing, with leading companies issuing price hike notices to clients, indicating a turning point in supply and demand within the lithium battery industry [5] Institutional Insights Currency and Foreign Investment - Dongfang Caifu Securities indicated a strong expectation for the appreciation of the RMB, which may accelerate foreign investment in the A-share market due to improved relative returns on RMB assets [7] Market Conditions for Index Breakthrough - Xinda Securities outlined three conditions for a potential index breakthrough: 1. Incremental policy catalysts, particularly from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference [8] 2. Improvement in economic data and corporate earnings [9] 3. Significant inflow of retail funds into the market [9] Industry Rotation - Huaxi Securities observed that the slowdown in incremental capital entering the market has led to an acceleration in industry rotation, with a focus on sectors that promote consumption and new productivity [10][11]

中金公司首席策略师缪延亮表示，现在时机尤其有利，因为美元可能正步入一段长期疲软期，而中国制 造业的竞争力越来越强。他曾担任中央外汇业务中心首席经济学家。 ...