Domestic Market Performance - The equity market experienced a slight upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to close at 3519.65, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.07% to 4017.67 [1][2] - The bond market showed a weak trend with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.06 basis points to 1.67% and the 30-year bond yield decreasing by 0.1 basis points to 1.88% [2][7] Overseas Market Influences - The overseas market was affected by tariff policies, with copper prices under pressure due to a 30% tariff announced by the US on the EU and Mexico, while oil prices rose approximately 1.5% due to positive signals from OPEC+ regarding strong demand in Q3 [3] Domestic Commodity Trends - The "anti-involution" policy led to a cooling in trading, with black commodities continuing to rise but at a reduced rate. Coking coal and coke prices increased by 1.15% and 1.09% respectively, while iron ore and rebar saw smaller gains between 0.1% and 0.3% [4] - The photovoltaic industry chain continued to rise, with polysilicon and industrial silicon prices increasing by 0.81% and 3.27% respectively [4] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank increased reverse repos to support liquidity, with a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan on a single day, although funding rates continued to rise due to the approaching tax period [5][6] - The central bank's announcement of a 1.4 trillion yuan buyout repo operation indicated a commitment to maintaining liquidity despite the tightening conditions [6] Equity Market Dynamics - The overall A-share market rose by 0.17% with a trading volume of 1.48 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors as they awaited clearer market narratives [8] - Bank stocks exhibited volatility, with potential fluctuations expected around upcoming equity registration dates [9] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.26% and 0.67% respectively, with significant inflows into stocks like Meituan and Alibaba, suggesting a potential rebound in the market [10]

在月初出人意料的强劲非农就业报告发布之后，随着上周末特朗普发信函给各国威胁进一步加征关税令 通胀前景面临重大不确定性，全球交易员们对于美联储降息预期可谓出现大幅降温，这也导致国债期货 交易员们一直在解除对于美国国债市场的一些大额看涨押注。 美联储自去年12月以来一直维系基准利率不变，以鲍威尔为代表的美联储官员均在采访中透露出谨慎 的"观望立场"，而不是像沃勒与鲍曼那样支持7月降息。鲍威尔上月对国会立法者们表示，若不是由于 关税带来的未来价格前景不确定性，基于通胀下降的情况，美联储现在本应已经开始降息。他也警告 称，目前尚无必要仓促调整利率政策。此外，鲍威尔还表示，预计今年夏天会看到通胀读数上升。不过 鲍威尔在近期的讲话中也坦言，通胀的上升幅度、时间点与持续性存在高度不确定性。 SOFR期权市场的交易数据显示，期权交易员们普遍押注今年美联储首次降息将是9月，并且交易员们预 计今年累计降息50个基点，每次降息25个基点——押注第二次降息出现在12月。 智通财经APP获悉，2026年美联储FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克表示，在支持美联储重新 开启降息路径之前，她希望看到通胀进一步显著回落。哈马克周一在接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing zero tariffs on coffee imports from 53 African countries, aiming to leverage China's large market to promote mutual development and capitalize on the growing coffee consumption in China [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Policy and Market Impact - The zero tariff policy will significantly reduce the import costs of African coffee to China, which currently faces an 8% tariff on coffee beans [1]. - With an estimated price of $4,000 per ton for coffee beans, the removal of tariffs will save $320 per ton in duties and $41.2 per ton in value-added tax [1]. - In 2023, China imported $170 million worth of coffee from Africa, with a compound annual growth rate of 41.9% from 2014 to 2023 [1]. Group 2: Coffee Market Growth in China - The Chinese coffee market is experiencing rapid growth, with the industry expected to reach a scale of 313.3 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 18.1% increase from the previous year [2]. - Per capita coffee consumption in China is projected to rise to 22.24 cups annually [2]. - In the first four months of 2025, the total value of coffee imports through Shanghai was 2.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, with imports from Africa showing a remarkable growth of 129.5% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is gradually reaching its peak, and some shipping companies have slightly reduced their rates for late July. The EC futures market is generally volatile. Attention should be paid to the opening price of MSK in the first week of August, as well as the impact of tariff policies on shipping schedules and the progress of the cease - fire negotiations in the Middle East [4][6]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The international dry - bulk shipping market ended its three - week decline. The rates of large - vessel markets are expected to stop falling and recover, while the rates of medium - sized vessel markets are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [26]. - **Oil Tanker Shipping**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The price of domestic refined oil may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by factors such as Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - **Futures Market**: On July 14, 2025, EC2508 closed at 2027.2 points, down 0.17% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed significantly. The month - spread structure also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line was at 2258.04 points, up 6.35% week - on - week and down 58.43% year - on - year. The SCFIS US West line was at 1557.77 points, down 3.79% week - on - week and down 65.99% year - on - year. Different routes had different price trends [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In July, it was in a stage of increasing supply and demand, approaching the peak of the peak season. The weekly average capacity in July, August, and September was 27.77, 28.83, and 30.04 million TEU respectively, with a slight decrease in July and August compared to the previous schedule [6]. - **Tariffs**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Canada, the EU, and Mexico starting from August 1. The impact on China's exports and re - export trade needs attention [4]. - **Trade Data**: In June, China's exports to the US were $381.7 billion, down 16.1% year - on - year but with a significant improvement in the month - on - month growth rate. Exports to ASEAN were $581.9 billion, up 16.8% year - on - year, and exports to the EU were $492.2 billion, up 7.6% year - on - year [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading should focus on tariffs and geopolitical dynamics, and for arbitrage, 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage rolling operations are recommended [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) rose 198 points to 1663 points, a 13.5% increase, reaching the highest level since June 25. The Capesize vessel index, Panamax vessel index, and Supramax vessel index all showed different degrees of increase [19][20]. - **Spot Rates**: On July 11, the spot rates of various routes increased to varying degrees, such as the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route and the Australia - Qingdao coal route [22]. - **Shipping Data**: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 29.871 million tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.588 million tons, an increase of 938,000 tons [23]. - **Import and Export Data**: In June, China's steel exports decreased month - on - month, while imports also decreased. Iron ore imports increased month - on - month, and coal and grain imports decreased month - on - month. The overall situation in the first half of the year showed an increase in steel exports and an increase in soybean imports [24]. - **Market Analysis**: The Capesize vessel market's freight rates stopped falling and recovered due to increased vessel inquiries and improved demand expectations. The Panamax vessel market's rates continued to rise due to strong demand for coal and grain transportation and tight market capacity [26]. Oil Tanker Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: On July 11, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 929, down 0.21% week - on - week and down 11.86% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 546, up 0.74% week - on - week and down 33.50% year - on - year [29][30]. - **Market Analysis**: The short - term freight rates are mainly affected by geopolitical conflict premiums. The domestic refined oil price may be reduced, and the oil price is affected by Trump's possible sanctions on Russia and trade tensions [30][31]. Industry News - **Tariff News**: Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Mexico, the EU, and other countries starting from August 1. The EU has extended the suspension period of counter - measures against US tariffs until early August [4][10][11]. - **Shipping Policy**: Guinea requires that 50% of bauxite exports must be transported by Guinean ships [27]. - **Oil Market News**: Trump's dissatisfaction with Russia may lead to more sanctions, which could affect the oil market. The OPEC + has reached an over - expected production increase agreement, and the oil price is affected by multiple factors [31][32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Fundamentally, the Fed's policy shift to easing after its June meeting minutes, with most expecting two rate cuts this year and a high probability in September, boosts precious metal prices. Trade tensions and tariff policies increase the demand and safe - haven premium for gold, while silver benefits from strong industrial demand and financial attributes due to a 50% tariff on copper and Fed rate - cut expectations [2]. - In terms of capital, last week, COMEX gold and silver inventories declined, global gold reserves continued to rise, China's central bank increased gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month, ETF fund inflows into gold and silver slowed, and hedge funds increased their long - position in gold [2]. - For strategies, the price of Shanghai gold is long - term bullish, with short - term high - level oscillations. Mid - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. Shanghai silver shows a slight short - term increase, and mid - term, it is advisable to hold long positions or buy when it dips to the lower edge of the oscillation range [2]. Summaries by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price and Position Changes**: The spot price of London gold increased by 0.61%, COMEX gold futures by 0.71%, while the Shanghai gold main contract decreased by 0.33%. The spot price of London silver rose by 1.67%, COMEX silver futures by 5.22%, and the Shanghai silver main contract by 1.36%. COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased by 0.10% and 0.87% respectively. COMEX gold total positions increased by 1.25%, and speculative net long positions by 0.49%. COMEX silver total positions decreased by 0.47%, and speculative net long positions by 7.70% [5]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: Both the domestic and foreign gold - silver ratios decreased last week, approaching 80 but still significantly higher than the long - term average of 60 - 70, indicating that the silver price is undervalued. The 50% tariff on copper may increase silver demand, and the silver price has upward potential [8]. - **Domestic - Foreign Price Spread**: The domestic - foreign price spreads of gold and silver narrowed last week. Affected by US tariff policies, market risk - aversion sentiment increased, and precious metal prices were boosted [9]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index rebounded slightly after hitting a low but remained below 98. A stronger US dollar exerts some upward pressure on precious metals, while trade tensions support precious metal prices [13]. - **US Treasury Real Yields**: The real yields of 5 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries increased last week. Market expectations of a looser Fed policy provide a lower - bound support for precious metal prices [14]. - **Inflation and Fed Rate - Cut Expectations**: In May, the rebound of commodity inflation was lower than expected. The Fed's internal views on tariff - driven inflation are divided, and most expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, which supports precious metal prices [19]. - **US Key Economic Data**: In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, and the service PMI was 50.8, both better than expected. Retail and food service sales declined year - on - year. The core PCE price index in May increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the PCE price index by 2.3%, and CPI inflation remained stable. In June, ADP employment decreased by 33,000, non - farm employment increased by 147,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. In May, job vacancies unexpectedly rose to 7.77 million [22][25][28]. - **Central Bank Gold - Buying Trends**: 32% of central banks plan to increase gold investment in the next 12 - 24 months. In Q1 2025, global central banks net - bought 244 tons of gold. China's central bank has increased gold holdings for eight consecutive months, and central bank gold - buying supports precious metal prices [29]. - **Fed June Meeting Minutes**: There were significant differences among participants regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. Most expect at least two rate cuts by the end of the year, with a high probability in September [30]. - **Tariff Policy**: Trump postponed the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1. The US sent tariff letters to trading partners, with a 50% tariff on Brazilian products. The 50% tariff on copper provides an opportunity for silver to make up for lost ground [31]. 3. Position Analysis - **Hedge Fund Positions**: As of July 8, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 10,000 lots to 203,000 lots, while CMX silver speculative net long positions decreased by 49,000 lots to 58,500 lots [34]. - **ETF Positions**: As of July 11, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.02 tons to 947.64 tons, and the SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 110.22 tons to 14,758.52 tons. Overall, the inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs slowed [35]. 4. Other Factors - **Gold and Silver Inventories**: Last week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.10% to 36.7471 million ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.87% to 494.9197 million ounces. Silver has room for continuous price increases due to industrial demand [39]. - **Gold and Silver Demand**: In July 2025, global gold reserves increased by 31.55 tons to 36,305.84 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons to 2,296.35 tons. In Q1 2025, global gold demand increased slightly year - on - year, and the global silver shortage is expected to narrow in 2025 [43]. - **This Week's Key Events**: This week, important events include China's press conference on H1 2025 import and export, US CPI, PPI, and other economic data, which will provide more basis for the Fed's monetary policy [45][46].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 贵金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 · 2025 年 7 月 14 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 美关税预期升温，金价强势运行 核心观点 上周海外金价跌破 3300 美元后反弹，国内沪金跌破 770 元后反 弹。7 月 9 日为此前美国和其他国家延期 90 天关税的截至日期，市场 关税预期有所上升，利好金价。技术上，期价企稳回升，再度站上 3300 美元和 60 日均线，预计维持强势运行。白银上周增仓上行明 显，突破前期高位，金银比值随之下行。白银上行是贵金属和有色共 振的结果，短期期价增仓上行明显，突破前期高位，上行动能较强。 拉长周期看，二季度以 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - **Shanghai Copper**: Today, copper prices stabilized in a fluctuating manner above 78,000, with a slight decline in open interest. At the macro level, copper is affected by US tariffs, resulting in high uncertainty and continuous capital outflows. At the industrial level, after the US tariff policy, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, and the shortage in the spot market decreased. After the futures price dropped, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices plunged in the morning and then stabilized in a fluctuating manner, with continuous decline in open interest. At the macro level, on July 11, the US Department of Commerce launched an anti - circumvention investigation into the anti - dumping and countervailing cases of aluminum tableware imported from China. At the industrial level, after the US tariff policy, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, and the shortage in the spot market decreased. The main futures price reached a high and then pulled back, facing significant pressure. Coupled with the impact of tariffs, aluminum prices dropped significantly. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Shanghai Nickel**: Today, nickel prices first declined and then rose in the morning, stabilizing in a fluctuating manner during the day. At the macro level, copper and aluminum are affected by tariffs and are operating weakly, putting pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector as a whole, while nickel performed relatively strongly today. At the industrial level, the port inventory of upstream nickel ore continued to rise, which is bearish for nickel prices; downstream, the domestic macro expectations are rising, stainless steel is strengthening, and downstream demand may improve, providing support for nickel prices. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate above 120,000 [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 14, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 142,000 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared to July 7 and a decrease of 6,100 tons compared to July 10 [9]. - **Aluminum**: According to Cailian Press and the China Trade Remedy Information Network, on July 11, the US Department of Commerce launched an anti - circumvention investigation into the anti - dumping and countervailing cases of aluminum tableware imported from China, examining whether aluminum tableware made of Chinese - produced aluminum foil imported from Thailand and Vietnam is used to circumvent the current anti - dumping and countervailing measures of the US against Chinese products [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 14, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2,050 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,950 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was + 550 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,450 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was + 2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,650 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,000 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, copper month - spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15] - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [24][26][28] - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel month - spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40]

面对威胁，有人选择屈服，自然也有人决定反抗。美国总统特朗普挥舞着关税大棒，试图通过一系列手段来达到自己的政治和经济目标。然而，他未曾料 到，曾经与中国关系密切的某些国家居然选择了低头，而那些和美国关系一直较为密切的"盟友"们，竟在关税问题上仍旧表现出顽强的抗争。 自特朗普在7月4日宣布将在8月1日起将关税税率提高至10%至20%之间后，越南和柬埔寨成为首批选择向美国"屈服"的国家。特别是越南，竟然将对美关税 降至零，换取美国不对等的20%关税。这一决定令人瞠目结舌，虽然有媒体曝料称越南被特朗普"忽悠"，但若没有动摇，何至于如此呢？ 为了应对东南亚国家的"非合作"，特朗普不断出台新的政策，本周二宣布对进口铜征收50%的关税，并且这一决定将于8月1日生效。美国商务部长霍华德·卢 特尼克为此辩解称，铜作为关键原材料，广泛应用于基础电网、建筑工程、汽车制造和军事装备等领域，因此"把铜带回家"是美国必须采取的措施。 然而，这一政策的实施立刻导致了欧洲铜股的下跌，同时沪铜也出现了下跌，而美铜却逆势上涨。显然，这场"抢铜大战"是经过精心策划的。摩根大通的首 席执行官杰米·戴蒙警告称，关税政策将导致通货膨胀，经济形势"令人担 ...

7月9日，特朗普突然宣布对巴西加征50%的进口关税。这一消息令人震惊，因为在今年4月，特朗普就曾针对全球范围内的贸易进行加税时，巴西的关税仅 为10%。然而，现在巴西面临的关税跃升至全球最高的50%，这一突如其来的决定让全球经济界议论纷纷，许多人纷纷猜测特朗普此举的真正动机是什么。 更加引人注目的是巴西总统卢拉的反应。他不仅坚决拒绝了特朗普的加税提案，而且直言不讳地表示，巴西完全不依赖美国，照样能够生存下去。这番话显 示了卢拉不畏强权、敢于直面挑战的姿态，让全球媒体纷纷将目光聚焦于巴西和特朗普之间的复杂博弈。 实际上，特朗普的关税政策最初主要针对那些与美国有贸易顺差的国家，他希望通过加税手段来减少美国的贸易逆差。过去15年里，美国与巴西之间的贸易 顺差已超过4000亿美元，意味着美国大量商品以零关税进入巴西市场，赚取了丰厚利润。然而，现在特朗普将巴西的进口关税从10%提高到50%，这一调整 几乎使巴西的进口成本暴涨，成为全球贸易中最高的税率。这使得全球贸易界一时困惑不解，特朗普到底是想达成什么样的目的？ 从背后的动机来看，特朗普此举很大程度上带有明显的私怨。特朗普与巴西前总统博尔索纳罗的关系非常亲密，两人在政 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that ongoing uncertainty in U.S. tariff policies may lead to a reduction of 1 billion euros in German exports to the U.S. each month [1]