Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current price is mainly dominated by supply - side interference news with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between futures and spot prices in the market. With a large short - term increase, there is a need to be vigilant about the callback risk [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 24, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 124,720 yuan/ton, with a 5.89% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 949,006 lots, and the open interest was 647,366 lots (the previous day's open interest was 671,573 lots). The current basis is - 21,900 yuan/ton. There were 17,101 lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, a change of 450 lots from the previous day. Despite the Guangzhou Futures Exchange raising the trading and intraday closing transaction fees for the lithium carbonate futures LC2605 contract to 0.032% of the transaction amount, the futures still rose significantly, and the current price is at a two - year high [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 97,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, a change of 2,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 96,700 - 101,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 2,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,450 US dollars/ton, a change of 30 US dollars/ton. In November 2025, China's total lithium carbonate imports were about 22,055 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 15%, with an average import price of about 9,915 US dollars/ton, a 11% month - on - month increase from the October average price. The lithium spodumene imports reached 729,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 12%, equivalent to about 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia was the main source of the increase, with imports reaching 425,000 tons in that month, a significant month - on - month increase of 44% and accounting for 58% of the total imports. Imports from Zimbabwe were 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28%; imports from Nigeria were 92,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16%. Additionally, 73,000 tons of lithium spodumene ore from Mali arrived at ports [2] Inventory Situation - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,044 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,071 tons; the downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,253 tons; other inventories are 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,280 tons. The downstream and smelter inventories are decreasing while other inventories are increasing. The overall inventory in December is expected to continue to decline, but the inventory depletion is slowing down, and attention should be paid to the release of relevant inventory data on Thursday [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Pay attention to the inflection points of consumption and inventory, and choose the right time to sell hedging at high prices. Cross - period: None. Cross - variety: None [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-25 铝到货量增加价格跟涨乏力 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价22030元/吨，较上一交易日变化160元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-170元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价21870元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-330元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21940元/吨，较上一交易日变化150元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-255元/ 吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-24日沪铝主力合约开于22290元/吨，收于22330元/吨，较上一交易日变化205元/吨，最 高价达22340元/吨，最低价达到22050元/吨。全天交易日成交294532手，全天交易日持仓296924手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-24，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存60.0万吨，较上一期变化2.2万吨，仓单库存76436 吨，较上一交易日变化347吨，LME铝库存521050吨，较上一交易日变化1450吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-24SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2715元/吨，山东价格录得2640元/吨，河南价格录得 2725元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a significant drop on Tuesday and a sharp rise on Wednesday, there was no obvious change in the EG fundamentals. The increase was mainly due to defensive short - covering in response to unplanned maintenance at low market prices, along with positive sentiment in the commodity and chemical sectors [1] - The production margins of ethylene - based and coal - based syngas - based EG both decreased [1] - The inventory data from different sources showed different trends. The overall arrival volume is moderately high, and the main port is expected to see a slight inventory build - up [2] - In terms of the overall fundamental supply - demand logic, the supply pressure is high in the next 1 - 2 months, and the demand from weaving is weakening. Attention should be paid to the implementation of filament production cuts [2] - For investment strategies, the unilateral rating is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period or inter - commodity strategies [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3818 yuan/ton (a change of +195 yuan/ton or +5.38% from the previous trading day), and the spot price in the East China market was 3598 yuan/ton (a change of +76 yuan/ton or +2.16% from the previous trading day). The spot basis in East China was - 13 yuan/ton (a decrease of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production margin of ethylene - based EG was - 110 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 12 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 1046 yuan/ton (a decrease of 72 yuan/ton compared to the previous day) [1] - The overall domestic ethylene glycol operating rate has risen above 70% [2] International Price Difference - No specific data or analysis on the international price difference was provided in the text, but a figure (Figure 9) about the international price difference (US FOB - China CFR) was mentioned [20] Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Weaving orders are weakening marginally, and the operating rate is declining rapidly, while the polyester operating rate remains firm. Attention should be paid to the implementation of filament production cuts due to weakening profitability [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF's data on Mondays, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 84.4 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.5 tons); according to Longzhong's data on Thursdays, it was 61.7 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 13.8 tons) [2] - The planned arrival volume at major ports in East China last week was 11.1 tons and 3 tons at secondary ports; this week, the planned arrival volume at major ports is 11.8 tons and 2.7 tons at secondary ports. The overall volume is moderately high, and the main port is expected to see a slight inventory build - up [2] - The expected inventory build - up in the next 1 - 2 months is around 50 tons [2]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-25 糖价强势反弹，郑棉震荡上行 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14180元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨，幅度+0.28%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15081元/吨，较前一日变动+14元/吨，现货基差CF05+901，较前一日变动-26；3128B棉全国均价15271元/吨， 较前一日变动+58元/吨，现货基差CF05+1091，较前一日变动+18。 近期市场资讯，截至2025年12月11日，美国累计净签约出口2025/26年度棉花144.5万吨，达到年度预期出口量的 54.39%，累计装运棉花60.5万吨，装运率41.88%。其中陆地棉签约量为140.2万吨，装运57.7万吨，装运率41.16%。 皮马棉签约量为4.2万吨，装运2.8万吨，装运率65.85%。其中，中国累计签约进口2025/26年度美棉6.4万吨，占美 棉已签约量的4.42％；累计装运美棉2.3万吨，占美棉总装运量的3.77％，占中国已签约量的35.68％。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡上行。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-12-25 周中苯乙烯港口库存微幅下降，关注装置开工变化 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-136元/吨（-36）。纯苯港口库存27.30万吨（+1.30万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费124美元/ 吨（-2美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费117美元/吨（-2美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差181.9美元/吨（+0.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-130元/吨（+5元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-350元/吨（+0），酚酮生产利润-902元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润789元/吨（+178）， 己二酸生产利润-993元/吨（+25）。己内酰胺开工率69.20%（-5.37%），苯酚开工率76.00%（-3.50%），苯胺开工率 61.35%（-14.59%），己二酸开工率59.60%（+0.40%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差-8元/吨（-79元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-177元/吨（+13元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存139300吨（+4600吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存84550吨（+2250吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 ...

免责声明 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 粕类产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月25日 | | | | 朱迪 | Z0015979 | | 豆相 | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏豆粕 | 3100 | 3100 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | M2605 | 2728 | 2745 | -17 | -0.62% | | 墓差 | M2605 | 372 | રેરિ | 17 | 4.79% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏现货墓差 | m2605 +290 | m2605+290 | ス | n | | 盘面进口榨利 | 巴西2月船期 | 82 | 73 | 9 | 12.3% | | 仓車 | | 24830 | 24830 | 0 | 0.0% | | 菜粕 | | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 旅跌 | 旅鉄幅 | | 现价 | 江苏采相 | 2420 | 2410 | 10 | 0.41 ...

2025年12月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：国储收储价上调，影响偏多 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：弱基差预期 | 7 | | 棉花：期价震荡偏强，注意整体市场情绪20251225 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：投机需求兑现 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 品 研 究 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，高度有限 豆油：美豆驱动不大，区间操作为主 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日 盘） | 涨跌幅 0.02% | 收盘价 （夜 盘） | 涨跌幅 0.78% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but there are still expectations of seasonal decline in demand. The high inventory of plates continues to suppress price performance [1]. - The iron ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, with prices fluctuating narrowly. The supply of iron ore is relatively sufficient, but due to reduced liquidity of some port supplies, the price remains high. The demand for iron ore is marginally weakening, and there will be downward pressure on prices if port supply liquidity recovers [3]. - The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is in a weak balance, and prices are maintaining an oscillating trend. After the third round of price cuts for coke, the supply - demand is in a weak balance, and the price is still under pressure. The supply of coking coal is tightening, but demand is insufficient, and the fundamentals are weak [5][6]. - The price of thermal coal in the production area has stopped falling and stabilized, while the port price is continuously declining. Near the end of the month, the supply is shrinking, demand is stable, and the price is oscillating. In the long - term, the supply is still loose [8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Steel futures oscillated, and according to Steel Valley data, steel inventory decreased yesterday, with hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing faster and demand rising. Building material inventory decline converged, and demand slightly decreased [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of building materials are improving, with off - season consumption maintaining resilience, a slight increase in production, and continuous decline in inventory. With cooling, there are expectations of seasonal decline in demand. Plate production declined, consumption and exports slightly decreased but remained resilient. High inventory continued to suppress plate prices, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar weakened [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port fluctuated slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1.288 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.51%. The cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 835,000 tons (10 transactions), a month - on - month decrease of 14.80% [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is accumulating, the price remains relatively high, and the supply is relatively sufficient. However, due to reduced liquidity of some port supplies, the price remains high. Some steel mills are reducing production to relieve restocking pressure, and short - term restocking willingness is insufficient. If port supply liquidity recovers, the price will face downward pressure [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main futures contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated. Some steel mills controlled coke purchases, providing weak support for coke. Some coking coal varieties with inventory pressure saw prices drop by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and overall transactions were average. The customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port for imported Mongolian coal remained high, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was weakly stable at around 960 - 980 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply - demand and logic: After the third - round price cut for coke, production increased slightly, and pig iron production remained low. The short - term supply - demand of coke was in a weak balance, and the price was still under pressure. The supply of coking coal tightened as some coal mines completed their annual tasks and stopped or reduced production, but downstream demand was insufficient, and the fundamentals were weak [5][6]. Strategy - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation; Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production area, coal prices oscillated. Some coal mines stopped or reduced production after completing annual tasks, and the supply tightened. The market maintained rigid procurement, and the sales of some cost - effective coal mines improved slightly, with a few coal types slightly increasing in price. At the port, the market was still weak. Some rigid demand and short - covering inquiries near the end of the month increased slightly, and the pessimistic sentiment eased slightly. The actual procurement by downstream power plants and end - users was still weak, and short - term prices were weak. The imported coal market was stable, with the demand for medium - and high - calorie coal average and prices weakly stable. The demand for low - calorie coal increased, and quotes rose slightly [8]. - Supply - demand and logic: Near the end of the month, the supply contracted, demand was stable, and the price oscillated. In the long - term, the supply was still in a loose pattern [8]. Strategy - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4] Core Views - Market sentiment is low, and steel prices are oscillating within a range. Glass prices are oscillating upward with increased production line maintenance, while soda ash prices are oscillating narrowly. The sentiment of waiting and seeing is growing for ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon manganese, and their alloy prices are consolidating [1][3]. - For glass, the supply is contracting due to cold - repairs in some production lines in late December, but the supply contraction is insufficient, the rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is still an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. High inventory also suppresses prices. For soda ash, although production has declined, it is still at a relatively high level, and with new production lines coming into operation, supply may increase further. High inventory and potential cold - repairs of float glass production lines pose challenges to heavy soda demand [1]. - For ferrosilicon manganese, enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. The cost support has weakened. For ferrosilicon, production decreased significantly last week, inventory pressure has been relieved, and the fundamental contradictions have eased [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: Futures oscillated upward yesterday, while the market transaction center of spot goods moved downward, and downstream buyers mainly purchased on demand. Some production lines are expected to undergo cold - repairs in late December, leading to a contraction in glass supply [1]. - Soda Ash: Futures oscillated narrowly yesterday, and downstream buyers showed strong waiting - and - seeing sentiment, mainly purchasing for rigid demand [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: Production is oscillating at a high level, the supply contraction is insufficient, rigid demand lacks improvement, and there is an expectation of further decline in rigid demand as the Spring Festival approaches. High inventory suppresses prices. Attention should be paid to glass cold - repair situations and the impact of macro - policies on speculative demand [1]. - Soda Ash: Production has declined but is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. With new production lines coming into operation, supply may increase further. High inventory and potential cold - repairs of float glass production lines pose challenges to heavy soda demand. Attention should be paid to downstream demand situations [1]. Strategy - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillatory and Weakening [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Futures oscillated narrowly yesterday, and spot prices were consolidating at a high level. Steel tenders are ongoing, with prices in the northern market ranging from 5,520 - 5,570 yuan/ton and in the southern market from 5,620 - 5,670 yuan/ton [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Futures maintained narrow - range oscillations yesterday. Steel tenders are imminent, and spot prices are stable. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates at relatively low levels, but the reduction in production is insufficient, leading to record - high enterprise inventories. Port manganese ore inventories continue to rise, and the total manganese element inventory has slightly increased, weakening the cost support. Attention should be paid to cost support and production changes [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Production decreased significantly last week as enterprises actively adjusted their production rhythms to cope with declining demand. Inventory pressure has been relieved, and the fundamental contradictions have eased. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction, cost - end changes, and regional policies [3]. Strategy - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillatory [4]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, and the intraday trend being slightly weaker. The current situation is weakly stable, and the ore price will move in an oscillatory manner [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has not improved. Demand continues to weaken and steel mills' profitability has not improved, keeping the weak pattern. The supply remains high, but there are positive factors like the unresolved structural contradiction in the spot market and the pre - holiday restocking expectation. The ore price will continue to face pressure but also has resistance to decline, and will continue to oscillate at a high level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term (within one week) trend is oscillatory, the medium - term (two weeks to one month) trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is slightly weaker. The overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the current pattern is weakly stable, leading to oscillatory movement of the ore price [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand situation is unfavorable, with demand weakening continuously and steel mills' profit not improving, which keeps the pressure on the ore price. The positive factors are the pre - holiday restocking expectation and the unresolved structural contradiction in the spot market. Although the domestic port arrival and miners' shipments have decreased month - on - month, they are still at a high level within the year, and the overseas ore supply is active. The overall supply remains high, and under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue to oscillate at a high level, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [3].