2025/7/1 10:31 【国富期货早间看点】ITS马棕6月出口增加4.7% USDA预计美豆2025年种植面积为8340万英亩 20250701 【国富期货早间看点】 ITS马棕6月出口增加4.7% USDA预计美豆 2025年种植面积为8340万英亩 20250701 国富研究 国富研究 2025年07月01日 07:32 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日 涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油09(BMD) | 3981.00 | -0. 62 | -0. 15 | | 布伦特09(ICE) | 66. 63 | 0. 44 | 0. 32 | | 美原油08(NYMEX) | 64.97 | -0. 15 | 0. 20 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1027. 50 | 0.22 | -0. 92 | | 美豆粕12(CBOT) | 289. 50 | 0. 45 | -0. 62 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 52. 75 | 0. 25 | -0. 45 | | | 最新价 | 漆跌幅(%) 十日深跌幅 ...

根据行业调研，上海陆家嘴金融城的期货公司密度堪称"全国之最"，北京金融街的机构交易室彻夜亮 灯，深圳福田区的期货私募数量每年增长30%。但更让人意外的是，杭州、成都等新一线城市的散户交 易量正在迅猛追赶——原来期货市场的"地理密码"早已被改写！ 01 上海 上海期货交易所、上海国际能源交易中心等重要期货交易场所坐落于此，交易品种丰富，涵盖有色金 属、能源化工、贵金属等领域。数据显示，全国40%的期货公司总部设在上海，上期所铜期货单月3000 万手的成交量，与伦敦、纽约形成全球三大定价中心。外滩那些看似低调的写字楼里，可能就藏着掌管 百亿资金的交易团队。上海期货大厦的电梯每天要运送超过2000名交易员，这个数字相当于某些省份全 省的期货从业人数。陆家嘴的星巴克被戏称为"非官方交易厅"，在这里能听到最前沿的跨境套利策 略。 02 杭州 杭州被称为期货界的 "热土"，从这里走出了叶庆均、徐王冠等众多期货大佬。杭州的期货圈藏着两 个"世界级秘密"：一是阿里系员工用期权思维玩转期货套利，二是顶级游资大佬偏爱在西湖边的茶室 谈交易。150家期货机构在此扎堆。永安期货场外期权规模突破1000亿元。杭州期货私募圈的影响力持 ...

器色盒属数据日报 | 2025/07/01 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宇慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 6月30日 | 3015.00 | 3128.00 | 690. 00 | 1442.50 | 861.00 | | | 涨跌值 | 18. 00 | 7.00 | 2. 00 | -8. 50 | -14.00 | | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.60 7 | 0.22 | 0. 29 | -0. 59 | -1.60 - | | | 近月合约收盘价 | RB2510 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉下降 1.85%，报收 68.04 美分/磅，CF509 收平，报收 13740 元/吨， | 震荡 | | | 主力合约持仓环比下降 13740 手至 57.49 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 15117 元/ | | | | 吨，较前一日上涨 64 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 15154 元/吨，较前一 | | | | 日上涨 45 元/吨。国际市场方面，美棉实播面积报告公布，预计 2025 年美国棉花 | | | | 种植面积 1012 万英亩，高于此前市场预期，环比调增 4.3%，丰产预期下，美棉价 | | | | 格承压下行。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉冲高回落，主力合约持仓环比开始下降。 | | | | 基本面来看，新年度国内棉花丰产预期较强，天气实际扰动有限。当前下游纺织 | | | | 企业开机仍在小幅下降，略低于往年同期，产成品库存逐渐累积，下游需求支撑 | | | | 有限。综合来看，基本面对棉价支撑 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-01 主产国供应前景乐观，原糖期价再度重挫 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13740元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.15%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15117元/吨，较前一日变动+64元/吨，现货基差CF09+1377，较前一日变动+84；3128B棉全国均价15154元/吨， 较前一日变动+45元/吨，现货基差CF09+1414，较前一日变动+65。 近期市场资讯，2025年6月，国家棉花市场监测系统就棉花实播面积展开全国范围专项调查，样本涉及14个省（自 治区）、46个县（市、团场）、1700个定点信息联系户。调查结果显示，2025年全国棉花实播面积4580.3万亩，同比 增加270.7万亩，增幅6.3%。其中，新疆棉花实播面积为4102.0万亩，同比增加310.3万亩，增幅8.2%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，中东地缘政治缓和提振市场情绪，美元有所走弱，提振ICE美棉走高。6月USDA 供需报告调减25/26年度全球棉花产量及消费量，由于产量减幅大于消费，叠加期初供应减少，期末库存环比下降。 近期美棉 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-01 终端需求偏弱，现货观望情绪浓厚 市场分析 1、6月30日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3564元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨5元/吨，涨幅 0.14%；持仓235183手，环比下降2094手，成交165052手，环比上涨10908手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3620—4030元/吨；华南，3600—3750元/吨； 华东，3650—3800元/吨。 昨日西北以及华南市场沥青现货价格大体企稳，其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度下跌，沥青盘面则延续震 荡态势，成本端支撑随地缘局势缓和而边际转弱。就沥青自身基本面而言，多空因素交织，缺乏突出矛盾。具体 来看，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。原油价格大幅回落后，炼厂生产成本有所修复，炼厂生产积极性 增强，或带动沥青产能利用率增加。与此同时，天气与资金因素制约下，沥青刚性需求缺乏亮点，情绪仍较为谨 慎，整体市场驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-01 宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 钢材：宏观情绪好转，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于2997元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3123元/吨，期货盘面成交量放大，现货市场成交情况一般 偏弱，部分地区钢厂挺价，昨日全国建材成交10.4万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材即将进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预 期。螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内 制造业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成 果，宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需 求变化情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪趋稳，矿价震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格基本持稳。贸易商报价积极性一 般，报价多随行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按 ...

涨跌都能赚 盈利就能离场！点击开通期货"T+0、双向交易"特权！>>> 市场空头氛围弥漫，商品大面积下挫；黑色系及广期所品种领跌，工业硅大跌4%，玻璃、焦煤跌近 4%，纯碱大跌3%，多晶硅、焦炭、硅铁、碳酸锂、PVC大跌2%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨幅(结)↑ | | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅2509 | 7765 | -4.31% | | 玻璃2509 | 979 | -3.83% | | 焦煤2509 | 809.5 | -3.92% | | 纯碱2509 | 1163 | -3.00% | | 多昌硅2508 | 32570 | -2.78% | | 佳炭2509 | 1385.0 | -2.70% | | PVC2509 | 4817 | -2.17% | | 氧化铝2509 | 2927 | -2.01% | | 硅铁2509 | 5272 | -2.01% | | 碳酸锂2509 | 61460 | -1.95% | | 对二甲苯2509 | 6734 | -1.35% | | 铁矿石2509 | 708.5 | -1.32% | | 沪锌2508 | 22145 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Weakening with fluctuations [5] - **Protein Meal**: Fluctuating [7] - **Corn and Starch**: Fluctuating [8][9] - **Hogs**: Fluctuating [2][9] - **Natural Rubber**: Fluctuating horizontally [9][10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Maintaining range-bound fluctuations [12] - **Cotton**: Fluctuating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13] - **Sugar**: Weakening with fluctuations in the long term, rebounding with fluctuations in the short term [14][16] - **Pulp**: Fluctuating, with a weakening bias [17] - **Logs**: Weakening with fluctuations [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It assesses the supply - demand situation, price trends, and future outlooks for each product [2][5][7][8][9][10][13][14][17][18]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Most products are expected to show a trend of fluctuating, with some having a weakening or strengthening bias. For example, oils and fats are expected to weaken with fluctuations, while protein meal is expected to fluctuate [5][7]. - **Long - term Outlook**: Some products, such as hogs and sugar, are in a downward cycle or face supply - driven downward pressure in the long term [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: In 2025, Canada's rapeseed planting area decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The US soybean planting is completed, and its growth is good. CNPE will raise Brazil's biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% on August 1. China's imported soybean arrivals are large, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. The expected increase in palm oil production in June is limited, and export expectations are optimistic. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but remains high [5]. - **Logic**: Due to technical rebounds, last Friday, US soybeans fluctuated strongly, while US soybean oil fluctuated weakly. Yesterday, China's three major oils and fats fluctuated weakly. Considering the macro - environment and industrial factors, oils and fats are expected to continue to weaken with fluctuations [5]. - **Outlook**: Oils and fats may continue to weaken with fluctuations in the near term, but the effectiveness of the lower technical support needs attention [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 30, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different changes. China's imported soybean crushing profit increased week - on - week and year - on - year [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are in a range - bound fluctuation. Domestically, soybean arrivals are increasing, oil mill inventories are rising, and downstream replenishment is insufficient, leading to supply pressure. In the long term, the consumption demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans are expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. Domestic soybean meal inventories continue to accumulate. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low prices after price drops [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port remained unchanged, and the domestic average corn price increased by 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Logic**: Today, China's corn prices mainly rose. The remaining vehicles at North China's deep - processing enterprises decreased due to continuous rainy weather, and the purchase price increased. The demand for corn is being squeezed by wheat, and there are rumors of policy grain auctions [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected supply - demand gap, the price has an upward trend, but there may be corrections due to potential negative impacts from policy grain auctions [9]. 3.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the spot price of hogs in Henan increased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the futures closing price decreased by 0.96% month - on - month [9]. - **Logic**: At the end of the month, the slaughter rhythm of farms slowed down, and the spot price rose, but the futures faced high - capacity and high - inventory pressure. In the short term, the average slaughter weight is decreasing, but the utilization rate of fattening pens is increasing. In the long term, the production capacity remains high, and the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year [2][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to fluctuate. Recently, the average slaughter weight is slowly decreasing, but farmers' fattening profit still attracts them to hold back hogs. Currently in the off - season of consumption, the price mainly fluctuates [2][9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: On June 30, the prices of various rubber products in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone and the Thai raw material market showed different changes [9][10]. - **Logic**: The external environment has changed little, and rubber prices are fluctuating horizontally. The raw material price is relatively firm, providing strong support at the bottom. The supply is expected to increase, while the demand is expected to decrease [10][11]. - **Outlook**: Before the fundamentals provide clear guidance, rubber prices may continue to fluctuate with the overall commodity market [11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in different regions showed different changes [12]. - **Logic**: Recently, the macro - sentiment has been relatively positive, and the BR market has maintained range - bound fluctuations. The overall operating level has dropped to the lowest since May, and inventories have slightly increased [12]. - **Outlook**: The external situation may be temporarily controllable, and the market correction may not be over. Attention should be paid to the previous low support [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the number of registered cotton warrants in the 24/25 season was 10,273, and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 09 was 13,740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 season, cotton production in China and other major producing countries is expected to increase. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand is weak. The current commercial inventory is at a relatively low level, which provides support for the price [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 30, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar 09 was 5,807 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton [14]. - **Logic**: Domestically, the 24/25 sugar production season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar. Internationally, the new sugar seasons in Brazil, India, and Thailand are expected to have increased production [14][16]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected increase in supply, sugar prices are expected to weaken with fluctuations. In the short term, they are expected to rebound with fluctuations [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: On the previous trading day, the prices of various pulp products in Shandong showed different changes [17]. - **Logic**: Pulp imports remain high, and prices are in a downward trend. Demand is in the off - season, and downstream paper enterprises' inventories are increasing. The US dollar price is continuously falling, and the pulp market is facing downward pressure [17]. - **Outlook**: Due to weak supply - demand and potential positive impacts from changes in delivery rules, pulp futures are expected to fluctuate [17]. 3.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of logs in Jiangsu and Shandong remained stable, and the futures price of LG2507 decreased [18]. - **Logic**: Yesterday was the last trading day before the first log contract LG2507 entered the delivery month, and the price fluctuated and declined. The total inventory decreased, and the market is in the off - season. In the short term, the fundamentals are in a weak balance [18]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the market will gradually return to being dominated by fundamentals, and the far - month prices are expected to be weak [18].

化工日报 | 2025-07-01 青岛港口库存继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13985元/吨，较前一日变动-60元/吨。NR主力合约12190元/吨，较前一日变动-40 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13950元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13900元/吨， 较前一日变动-30元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1720美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1660美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11350元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 天然橡胶： 现货及价差：2025-06-30，RU基差-35元/吨（+10），RU主力与混合胶价差85元/吨（-30），烟片胶进口利润-6453元 /吨（+64.13），NR基差123.00元/吨（+33.00）；全乳胶13950元/吨（-50），混合胶13900元/吨（-30），3L现货14600 元/吨（-50）。STR20#报价1720美元/吨（+0），全乳胶与3L价差-650元/吨（ ...