Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and commodity price fluctuations since 2025 have put significant operational pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), making the futures market a crucial platform for risk management and stabilizing market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Current Challenges for Enterprises - The complex international situation, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and regional tensions, has led to significant volatility in commodity prices, impacting the operational stability of SMEs [2]. - Enterprises are facing dual pressures from raw material price fluctuations and logistics uncertainties, which are exacerbated for SMEs due to limited financial resources and expertise [2]. Group 2: Role of the Futures Market - The futures market serves as a "risk firewall" for enterprises, allowing producers and traders to lock in sales prices through short-selling futures contracts, thus stabilizing expectations and restoring confidence in investment and production [3]. - The dual attributes of the futures market—commodity trading and financial investment—are essential for helping enterprises manage price volatility and operational risks [3]. Group 3: Customized Services for SMEs - The futures industry is innovating through customized services like "insurance + futures" and basis trading to address the specific risk management needs of SMEs [4][5]. - In 2024, the "insurance + futures" model provided 2.8 billion yuan in price risk protection for agricultural products across multiple provinces, demonstrating its effectiveness in mitigating price volatility [4]. - The basis trading model allows enterprises to lock in prices for livestock while managing cash flow, thus alleviating financial pressure and enabling a focus on operational improvements [5][6]. Group 4: Enhancing Futures Market Integration - Despite the successes, challenges remain in terms of awareness, tool adaptation, and policy implementation, which need to be addressed to fully integrate futures services into the real economy [7][8]. - The industry faces a shortage of skilled professionals who understand both the industry and financial aspects, which hinders SMEs' ability to effectively utilize futures for risk management [7]. - There is a need for more comprehensive policies and support mechanisms to facilitate the adoption of futures tools by enterprises, including the introduction of more commodity futures contracts [8].

每经AI快讯，1月23日，因需求担忧加剧，纽约可可期货本周迄今期货累计下跌约20%，为18个月来最 大单周跌幅。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The glass market is expected to experience short - term fluctuations. Although there is an expectation of further contraction in supply due to long - term losses in glass production lines and cold - repair plans before the Spring Festival, the real - estate demand has not improved, and the decline in off - season demand may exceed the supply contraction. The market sentiment has strengthened, leading to a rebound in the market, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the trend near the pressure level, as well as macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures market**: The glass main contract showed a slightly stronger intraday oscillation. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band contracted, indicating a short - term oscillation signal. The intraday pressure was near the middle line of the Bollinger Band, and the support was near the lower line. The trading volume increased by 17,568 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 18,652 lots. The intraday high was 1070, the low was 1051, and the closing price was 1064, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.33% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot market**: In North China, the market was stable, with manufacturers having decent sales and downstream purchases being rational; in East China, the market was dull with mainly rigid - demand purchases, and some manufacturers offered discounts, with a general trading atmosphere; in Central China, there were few changes, with cautious purchases and stable prices; in South China, overall transactions were good, and some prices were increased [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1010, and the basis was - 54 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the total output of float glass this week was 1.0552 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The industry's average opening rate was 71.62%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%. There was no production line water - tapping or ignition this week, and the daily output remained stable [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.216 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 203,000 weight boxes or 0.38%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.74%. The inventory days were 23.1 days, an increase of 0.1 day from the previous period. This week, the downstream's purchasing sentiment was average, and some areas were affected by the weather with weak sales, resulting in an overall inventory increase [2] - **Demand**: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approached, the deep - processing orders in the north and south regions showed different trends. The executable days of southern orders increased slightly, and some orders could last for more than 20 days, while the orders in the northern and central regions declined [2] - **Profit**: The weekly average profit of natural - gas float glass was - 158.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5.71 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of coal - gas float glass was - 65.11 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of petroleum - coke float glass was - 1.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.71 yuan/ton [2][3] Main Logic Summary - The long - term losses of glass production lines have accelerated the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity, and there are still cold - repair plans for some production lines before the Spring Festival, so there is an expectation of further supply contraction. However, the real - estate development investment and capital availability have continued to decline year - on - year this month, and the completion and new construction are weak, with the real - estate demand still not improving. Overall, the real - estate data is still deteriorating, and the market's rigid demand is accelerating to weaken at the end of the month. Although there is still an expectation of cold - repair for a few production lines, the supply contraction may not be able to offset the decline in off - season demand. The anti - involution sentiment has strengthened, leading to a market rebound. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the trend near the pressure level. Future attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "short - term shock", indicating a volatile trend in the short term [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the soda ash production capacity utilization rate remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall output is increasing. There is an expectation of cold - repair of glass production lines near the end of the month, which may further weaken the rigid demand for soda ash. Although the anti - involution news has strengthened market sentiment and led to a short - term rebound in the market, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. Despite high exports alleviating some pressure, the high inventory still restricts price rebound. The short - term price is likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the return of the market to the weak fundamentals after the sentiment fades. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash futures contract strengthened with fluctuations during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks contracted, indicating a short - term shock signal. The intraday resistance was near the 60 - day moving average, and the short - term support was near the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 77,654 lots compared to the previous day, while the open interest decreased by 17,937 lots. The intraday high was 1200, the low was 1178, and the closing price was 1198, up 24 yuan/ton or 2.04% from the previous settlement price [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market was slightly stable with fluctuations. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range fluctuation, and Jiangsu Huachang had a short - term shutdown. The supply was adjusted at a high level. Downstream demand was mediocre, with poor purchasing enthusiasm, and buyers mainly replenished inventory at low prices [1]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 52 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 22, the domestic soda ash output was 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3600 tons or 0.46%. The light soda ash output was 358,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2700 tons, and the heavy soda ash output was 412,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.42%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous week. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, down 2.27 percentage points, and the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, down 0.89 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.42% [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5212 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons or 1.49% from Monday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 82,450 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1900 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 696,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,900 tons. Compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 53,800 tons or 3.42%. Among them, the light soda ash inventory decreased by 12,500 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory decreased by 41,300 tons. The inventory at the same time last year was 1.4295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9170 tons or 6.41% [2]. - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 825,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%. The overall shipment rate was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, with poor purchasing enthusiasm. Buyers mainly consumed inventory and made low - price rigid - demand purchases [3]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit of the co - production method (double - ton) was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 96.3 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous month. During the week, the raw material salt price was stable, and the thermal coal price fluctuated downward, resulting in a slight decline in costs [3]. Main Logic Summary - The soda ash production capacity utilization rate remains high, and new production capacity is gradually being released, leading to an increase in overall output. There is a cold - repair expectation for glass production lines near the end of the month, which may further weaken the rigid demand for soda ash. Although the anti - involution news has strengthened market sentiment and caused a short - term rebound in the market, in the medium - to - long - term, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. High exports alleviate some pressure, but the high inventory still restricts price rebound. The short - term price may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the return of the market to the weak fundamentals after the sentiment fades. It is necessary to continue to monitor downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆★ [1] - Methanol: ★☆★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★☆★ [1] - Propylene: ★☆★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Olefins: ★☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various chemical products. Some products are expected to have short - term upward trends, while others face supply - demand imbalances and long - term pressure [2][3][5][6][7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose. Supply has no obvious pressure, and downstream factories are more cautious. Plastic and polypropylene futures also rose, but polyethylene will face increased supply pressure and weakening demand, while polypropylene has relatively stable supply but weak demand [2] Polyester - PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, and PTA has none. There is an inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival. Ethylene glycol has an inventory accumulation expectation around the Spring Festival but may improve in the second quarter. Short fiber has high enterprise load and low inventory but weak downstream orders. Bottle chip has improved processing margin but long - term capacity pressure [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rose, but downstream resistance to high prices increased. Supply decreased, and demand increased, with inventory reduction in East China ports. Styrene futures rose, but high prices may limit its upward space [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose. Port inventory accumulated, but there is strong support from reduced imports in the first quarter. Urea futures were strong, with increased downstream开工 and production enterprise de - stocking [6] Chlor - alkali - PVC was strong, with factory inventory decreasing and social inventory increasing. There is a possibility of capacity reduction and export increase this year. Caustic soda had a fluctuating trend, with high inventory and high开工, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration may be compressed [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash had a slightly strong fluctuating trend, with high inventory pressure. Glass was slightly strong, with inventory increase and possible seasonal inventory accumulation, and low valuation [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.58%, volume increased and positions decreased. Currently, rebar supply has rebounded to a high level while demand is weak, the fundamentals continue to deteriorate, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is that the futures price has fallen close to the valley - electricity cost, increasing the downward resistance. It is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated higher with a daily increase of 0.52%, both volume and positions expanded. At present, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coil remains, the demand resilience is weakening, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate again, and prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that speculative demand is acceptable, and the short - term price will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand changes [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened with a daily increase of 1.21%, both volume and positions expanded. Currently, the shipments of miners have seasonally declined, but inventories are high, the supply pressure is not relieved, and demand is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and ore prices are still likely to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are pre - holiday steel mill restocking and the warming of commodity sentiment. It is expected that ore prices will show an oscillatory and stable trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the fixed - asset investment in Xiongan New Area increased by 14% year - on - year. The coordinated development of Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei has deepened. In 2025, Hebei's fixed - asset investment increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the investment of construction projects worth over 100 million yuan increased by 9.6% year - on - year, driving the province's investment growth by 6.5 percentage points [7]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in January are expected to be 1.8 million units, and new energy vehicles are expected to reach 800,000 units. Affected by the halving of purchase tax subsidies, the car market started weakly at the beginning of January, but gradually recovered. The monthly retail market is expected to be 1.8 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 20.4% and a year - on - year slight increase of 0.3% [7]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, Fortescue's iron ore production was 49.8 million tons, a 2% decrease both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The shipment volume was 50.5 million tons, a 1% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 2% increase year - on - year [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet, Zhangjiagang heavy scrap, and their price changes are provided. Also included are the prices and price changes of PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, freight, SGX swaps, and iron ore price index [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing prices, price increases or decreases, trading volumes, volume differences, positions, and position differences of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are presented. The rebar contract closed at 3,142 with a 0.58% increase, the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3,305 with a 0.52% increase, and the iron ore contract closed at 795.0 with a 1.21% increase [11]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (including steel mills and social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore [13][14][17]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of 45 ports of iron ore, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills, and the iron concentrate powder inventory of domestic mines [21][22][24]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit and loss situation of 75 independent electric arc furnace steel mills for building materials [26][28][32]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply has increased to a high level while demand is weak, the fundamentals continue to deteriorate, and prices are under pressure during the off - season. The futures price near the valley - electricity cost provides downward resistance. It is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [33]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Supply pressure remains, demand resilience is weakening, industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate again, and prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factor is acceptable speculative demand. The short - term price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [33]. - **Iron Ore**: Miners' shipments have seasonally declined, inventories are high, supply pressure is not relieved, and demand is weak. The fundamentals have not improved, and prices are still likely to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are pre - holiday steel mill restocking and the warming of commodity sentiment. It is expected that prices will show an oscillatory and stable trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [34].

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of Tianqi Lithium's brand as a registered brand for lithium carbonate futures at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange signifies a strategic advantage, enhancing the company's market credibility and operational efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Brand Registration Impact - Tianqi Lithium's brand will be officially recognized as a registered brand for lithium carbonate futures starting February 2, 2026, marking a transition from "deliverable" to "brand deliverable" status [1]. - The registration allows for direct delivery of products without the need for repeated quality inspections, saving approximately 20 yuan per ton in inspection fees and reducing time costs by 3-5 days, thus significantly improving delivery efficiency and customer acceptance [1]. Group 2: Competitive Advantage - With the registration, Tianqi Lithium becomes the only lithium company in China with both designated delivery warehouse and registered brand status for lithium carbonate futures, enhancing its control over the entire production, storage, delivery, and pricing chain [2]. - The company's production facilities in Sichuan and Jiangsu are noted as the lowest-cost lithium carbonate production bases globally, with production costs around 70,000 yuan per ton, significantly lower than the industry average of 110,000 yuan per ton [2]. - The brand registration is expected to amplify Tianqi Lithium's cost advantages, allowing for higher pricing power and the potential for simultaneous increases in both volume and price as market conditions improve [2].

(责任编辑：张海蛟) 隔夜，COMEX黄金期货涨2.1%，报4938.5美元/盎司。 中国经济网北京1月23日讯 今日，上海期货交易所日间盘黄金期货主力合约震荡收高，成交下降，持仓 增加。主力2604合约收报1115.64元，涨2.55%或27.74元;成交量为369271手;持仓为288050手，持仓增加 5197手。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in synthetic rubber prices is driven by a combination of tight supply of raw materials, improved demand from the tire industry, and positive market sentiment [4][5][10]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply of butadiene, a key raw material for synthetic rubber, has been constrained due to maintenance of production facilities and recent exports to countries like South Korea, leading to a significant drop in port inventories [4]. - Domestic production of synthetic rubber has also seen a decline, with a notable reduction in output reported for December 2025, despite a large annual capacity of 3.8 million tons [4][6]. - As of mid-January, the operating rate for domestic synthetic rubber facilities was 79.68%, showing a slight increase, but overall supply remains tight [6]. Demand Side Analysis - The tire industry, the largest consumer of synthetic rubber, has seen a recovery in orders, particularly for semi-steel tires, following the EU's cancellation of anti-dumping measures against Chinese passenger car tires [5][6]. - The operating rates for tire manufacturers have improved, with semi-steel tire utilization at 72.53% and full-steel tire utilization at 63.02%, although this is expected to decline as the Chinese New Year approaches [6]. Inventory and Cost Analysis - Inventory levels for synthetic rubber have been rising, with some warehouses reporting stock levels exceeding 10,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 9.49% for factory inventories [6]. - The cost of butadiene has risen sharply, impacting the profitability of synthetic rubber production, with theoretical profits for styrene-butadiene rubber significantly reduced [6][10]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment is positive, with increased investment in the chemical sector and a strong performance in synthetic rubber prices driven by the tight supply of butadiene [12][14]. - Analysts expect that the price of synthetic rubber will continue to be supported by the strong fundamentals of butadiene, despite potential seasonal demand declines as the Chinese New Year approaches [11][13].

消息面 1月22日，上期所燃料油期货仓单0吨，环比上个交易日持平；低硫燃料油仓库期货仓单13000吨，环比 上个交易日持平。 消息人士：贸易公司维托尔正准备开始从委内瑞拉出口燃料油。 瑞达期货（002961）： 综合来看，燃料油市场供增需减，成本端主要跟随原油波动，美伊冲突带来的波动明显增加，高硫燃油 供应影响预期大于低硫燃料，波动更为剧烈，预计燃料油价格宽幅区间波动为主。FU主力合约隔夜报 2622元/吨，下方可关注2500附近支撑；LU主力合约隔夜报3100元/吨，下方关注3000附近支撑。 西南期货： 亚洲地区对西方国家燃料油进口持续增加，低硫燃料油市场的供应状况保持良好，从新加坡运来的低硫 燃料油的价格涨到了三周以来的最高水平。据交易员们称，亚洲低硫燃料油的现货价差已经升至四个月 以来的最高水平。这一价格上涨的背后，一是年末假期过后下游需求有所增加;二是人们预计在2月春节 前夕，燃料油的需求会进一步上升。策略方面，燃料油主力合约暂时观望。 新加坡企业发展局（ESG）：截至1月21日当周，新加坡燃料油库存下降209.5万桶，至13周低点2337.8 万桶。新加坡轻质馏分油库存上涨29.7万桶，达到41周 ...