针对关税谈判，日本又有最新表态！ 当地时间周一，日本首相石破茂表示，日本不会与美国达成一项不包括汽车关税的初步贸易协定。石破茂还表 示，增加从美国进口玉米将是与美国进行贸易谈判的选项之一。 当天，石破茂表示，日本政府已准备好采取额外刺激措施，来缓解关税对经济的影响。不过，石破茂对削减日 本消费税税率表示谨慎。截至发稿，美元兑日元上涨2%，至148.31，创4月初以来新高。 日本首相：将进行额外经济刺激 周一，日本首相石破茂在日本国会会议上表示，面对美国提高关税带来的经济压力，日本政府已准备好采取额 外措施，来缓解其对国内经济的影响。 石破茂说，日本政府"将毫不犹豫地采取额外措施"，以缓解美国提高关税给经济带来的痛苦。不过，在被一名 反对党议员问及政府是否会考虑降低食品消费税税率时，石破茂表示，"重要的是帮助受冲击最严重的民众， 而不是采取一刀切的措施。" 石破茂指出，虽然一些国家已经采取了侧重食品的减税措施，但日本的税率相对较低，同时面临快速老龄化社 会带来的财政挑战。他补充道："谈论减税很容易。但如果不在讨论中涉及如何支付日本不断上升的社会福利 和养老金成本这样的困难问题，那就是不负责任的。" 日本的公共债 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, maintain a cautious long position for the four major stock index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in A - shares; maintain a cautious wait - and - see attitude for commodities and government bonds. The ranking is: stock index > government bonds > commodities. Among commodities, the ranking is: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > black metals [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, in April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, far exceeding expectations, and the trade surplus was 96.81 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 34%. China and the US will hold trade talks, and the central bank has unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 10BP, which will boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. Internationally, the US economic activities are still expanding steadily, the US - UK has reached a limited trade agreement, and the US - China trade negotiation has made progress. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, and the dollar rebounds in the short term, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Important News and Events - On May 5th, the US President announced to impose a 100% tariff on all foreign - made movies entering the US and will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. On May 6th, the US March trade deficit widened to a record 140.5 billion US dollars, and the US refused to cancel some tariffs on Japan. On May 7th, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US and the EU are in trade negotiations. On May 8th, the UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. On May 9th, the US President said that the US and China will conduct substantial trade negotiations this weekend, and the current 145% tariff on China will be lowered [3][4][5][6][10] 3.2 This Week's Important Events and Economic Data Reminders - From May 12th to May 16th, there will be a series of industrial data releases, including electrolytic aluminum inventory, iron ore shipping and arrival volume, etc., as well as important economic data such as the US CPI, PPI, and GDP data of various countries [11] 3.3 Global Asset Price Trends - Stock markets: Different stock indices in various countries have different price trends and changes. Bond markets: Yields of 10 - year bonds in different countries have different fluctuations. Commodity markets: Prices of various commodities such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy have different changes. Exchange rate markets: Exchange rates of major currencies have different degrees of fluctuations [12] 3.4 Domestic High - Frequency Macroeconomic Data - Upstream: Includes data on commodity price indices, energy prices, coal inventories, and iron ore prices. Mid - stream: Covers data on steel prices, production, and inventory, non - ferrous metal prices and inventory, building material prices and inventory, and chemical product prices and inventory. Downstream: Involves data on real estate transaction area, automobile sales, and agricultural product prices [13][42][71] 3.5 Domestic and Foreign Liquidity - Global liquidity: Shown by the US Treasury yield curve. Domestic liquidity: Reflected by central bank open - market operations, inter - bank lending rates, and bond yields [82][84] 3.6 Global Financial Calendar - From May 13th to May 16th, there are important economic data releases in the EU, the US, Germany, Japan, etc., including CPI, PPI, GDP, and other data [105]

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 5 月 12 日星期一 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：上周五受贸易进展不确定性和地缘冲突的影响伦敦金下破 3280 美元后 | | 研究员：王伟 | 持续反弹，最终收涨 0.63%，报 3326.46 美元/盎司。但周末中美经贸高层宣布会谈取得 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 了实质性进展，伦敦金今晨跳空低开；现货白银周五收涨 0.84%，报 32.72 美元/盎司。 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 0.33%，报 790.74 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.88%， | | 报 | 8221 元/千克。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 2.美元指数：美元指数回吐前日部分涨幅，收跌 0.3%，报 100.339。 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 ...

叠加矿端报价加速下调，锂价维持偏空运行【62000-63700】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 虽然英美谈判有结果、中美贸易谈判有结果，金价或有所调整，不过未来全球 | | | 高位震荡 | 购金力量仍较多，长期看国际秩序下美元信用丧失，去美元化是主力，黄金是 | | | | 未来秩序筹码。长期战略配置价值持续存在【770-810】 | | 白银 | 宽幅调整 | 关税影响各国经济，国内光伏需求有负面影响各国刺激政策将会出台，白银窄 幅震荡。白银品种属性看弹性大，受黄金和基本金属影响较大，操作上延续此 | | | | 前的高位区间思路对待。【8100-8380】 | | 铜 | 逢低试多 | 铜精矿紧张持续，国内库存持续去化，本周交割在即，仓单和持仓对比悬殊，警惕 | | | | 软挤仓风险，短期多单继续持有，中长期依旧看好铜。沪铜关注区间【77300，78800】 | | 锌 | 反弹抛空 | 海外锌精矿干扰增加，海内外库存去化，短期锌止跌反弹，但预计上方空间有 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent financial policies and market reactions, highlighting the impact of interest rate cuts and the ongoing trade negotiations between China and the US, which have led to fluctuations in various asset classes. Group 1: Market Overview - During the May Day holiday, overseas markets and Hong Kong stocks rose, leading to a rebound in A-shares on the first trading day after the holiday. However, uncertainties from US-China trade talks and other geopolitical events caused the market to enter a volatile phase after an initial recovery [1][2] - The small-cap growth style performed well this week, with notable performances in the defense, telecommunications, and power equipment sectors [1] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market experienced a loose funding environment, with both government and credit bonds strengthening. The People's Bank of China announced a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate cut, but long-term bond yields were already priced in, leading to a flattening of the yield curve [2][6] - Short-term bonds are expected to perform better due to their higher certainty, while long-term bonds may have lower returns but still maintain a reasonable win rate [6] Group 3: Commodity Market - COMEX gold exhibited a V-shaped trend, initially rising above $3,400 per ounce before retreating due to the strengthening dollar and trade agreements between the UK and the US. Overall, gold prices saw a slight increase over the week [3][7] - The article emphasizes the ongoing trend of de-dollarization and the continued purchasing of gold by multiple central banks, suggesting that gold remains a valuable asset for long-term investment [7] Group 4: Overseas Market Developments - Recent developments in trade negotiations, including the initiation of talks between China and the US, and agreements between the US and the UK, indicate that the peak impact of the trade war may have passed, although future negotiations are expected to be complex [8] - The article notes the uncertainty surrounding US government policies and the potential for a shift away from dollar dependence, suggesting a need for diversified asset allocation in overseas investments [8] Group 5: Stock Market Performance - A-shares reported a rebound, with the broad-based indices such as the Guozheng 2000 and Zhongzheng 1000 showing significant weekly gains. The overall trading volume in the two markets increased by 22.16% compared to the previous week, reaching 13,225 billion yuan [10][12] - The article highlights that while the revenue and net profit growth rates for A-share companies turned positive in the first quarter, the proportion of loss-making companies remains high, indicating potential pressure on fundamentals due to tariff impacts [5][10] Group 6: Sector Performance - In terms of sector performance, the defense, telecommunications, and power equipment sectors showed strong weekly gains of +6.33%, +4.96%, and +4.02% respectively, indicating robust investor interest in these areas [19][22] - The article also mentions that the banking sector and non-bank financials have performed well, with respective weekly increases of 3.88% and 1.75% [21][22]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate reached a one-month high of 145.9020, up 0.40%, driven by a trade agreement between the US and China, alleviating recession concerns in the US [1] - The USD/JPY has broken through the 140-145 range, with potential to test higher resistance levels around 146-147 if the trend continues [1] - Japan's trade balance for March was reported at 516.5 billion yen, below the expected 547.7 billion yen and significantly lower than the previous value of 712.9 billion yen [2] Group 2 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba emphasized a goal of 0% tariffs in negotiations with the US, indicating positive discussions with President Trump [2] - Technical analysis suggests that the USD/JPY has found support above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from March-April declines, with potential upward movement towards the 146.80-146.85 area, representing the 61.8% Fibonacci level [2] - The 145.55 area is currently acting as a protective level for the USD/JPY, with a break below this level potentially accelerating a decline towards the psychological level of 145.00 [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Treasury bond futures mostly declined slightly, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed mixed trends, with the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond rising 0.4bp. The inter - bank market liquidity was abundant, and the overnight and seven - day pledged repo rates of deposit - taking institutions both declined again, with the former falling more than 3bp and the latter more than 7bp. After the central bank's interest - rate cut policy took effect, the overall interest - rate center declined, and with consecutive net injections in the open market in recent days, the liquidity expectation was optimistic, and the capital price was expected to continue to fall in the short term [3] - The April PMI fell into the contraction range. The LPR remained unchanged for six consecutive months. The central bank adjusted the MLF operation mode, and its policy attribute faded out completely. The central bank mentioned again the possibility of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. The first - quarter financial data was stable and positive. The CPI in March declined slightly but the decline narrowed, and the core CPI rose moderately. There were new developments in the recent tariff negotiations, but it was still a long way from reaching an agreement, which would impact the bond market [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures contracts' price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and other information are presented. For example, the T2506 contract price was 109.060, down 0.01%, with a trading volume of 78,100 and an open interest of 329,444 [8] 2. Fundamental Analysis - The fundamentals show that Treasury bond futures mostly declined slightly, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed mixed trends. The inter - bank market liquidity was abundant, and the capital price was expected to continue to fall in the short term [3] 3. Capital Flow Analysis - On May 9, the central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 77 billion yuan on that day [3] 4. Basis Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contract basis were negative, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which was bearish. The TL main contract basis was positive, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures, which was bullish [3] 5. Inventory Analysis - The balance of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts was 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3566 trillion respectively, which was neutral [4] 6. Market Trend Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts were all above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, which was bullish [4] 7. Main Position Analysis - The TS and TF main contracts had net long positions, and the long positions increased. The T main contract had a net long position, but the long positions decreased [5]

Group 1 - The Geneva talks between China and the US have made substantial progress, with both sides agreeing to establish a trade negotiation mechanism, and a joint statement is expected to be released on Monday [2][8] - The US stock market showed mixed results, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices nearly flat as investors awaited clarity on US-China tariff negotiations [3] - The US Treasury yields remained stable, and trading volume decreased compared to usual levels, reflecting market uncertainty [3] Group 2 - The Trump administration has identified around 20 key trading partners for initial negotiations, including Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, with Japan's Prime Minister aiming for a trade agreement before the July Senate elections [5] - The Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns that tariffs could lead to rising inflation and unemployment, complicating monetary policy decisions [5] - The Chinese CPI data for April indicates that tariffs have caused deflation for the third consecutive month, prompting the People's Bank of China to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery in its monetary policy [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The content does not specify a particular company or industry, focusing instead on international news and political developments. Core Points and Arguments - Trump announced plans to sign an executive order that would reduce drug prices by 30% to 80% [1] - The registration for candidates in the South Korean presidential election has concluded with seven candidates participating [2] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida aims for 0% tariffs in negotiations with the United States [3] - Reports indicate that OpenAI and Microsoft are in discussions to unlock new funding and explore a future IPO [4] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce stated that a 10% baseline tariff will remain in place for the foreseeable future [5] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio is scheduled to accompany Trump on a visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar from May 11 to 14 [6] - The fourth round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran has concluded, with Iran describing the latest nuclear discussions as "difficult but productive," while the U.S. side expressed optimism for a new round of talks to occur soon [7] - Putin proposed that both Russia and Ukraine restart direct negotiations unconditionally in Istanbul on the 15th, with Zelensky indicating he would wait for Putin in Turkey, while Trump expressed skepticism about Ukraine reaching an agreement with Putin [8]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **US-UK trade agreement**, **US-China relations**, and **Federal Reserve monetary policy**. Core Points and Arguments - The **US-UK trade agreement** has reduced certain tariffs, with the US maintaining a 25% tariff on over 100,000 exported cars from the UK, while lowering tariffs on UK imports from 5.1% to 1.8% [1][2] - The agreement includes a commitment from the UK to purchase $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft and parts, and establishes an alliance in steel and aluminum trade [2][10] - The **US-China dialogue** in Switzerland aims to ease tensions, focusing on trade, technology transfer, and intellectual property protection, although specific details are yet to be disclosed [4][11] - The **Federal Reserve** is expected to maintain a neutral to slightly hawkish stance, focusing on data changes to ensure policy flexibility, with no immediate plans for rate cuts [5][20] - The reduction in tax policies has led to decreased fiscal revenue, potentially limiting future tax cuts, particularly the minimum 10% tariff reduction [6][22] - Ensuring **supply chain security** is a critical issue in international trade, affecting both traditional industries and pharmaceuticals, with future measures likely targeting specific countries [3][8] - The **demonstration effect** of the US-UK trade agreement may influence negotiations with other countries, particularly Japan and South Korea, regarding tariff reductions [10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The **challenges** faced by the US in negotiating with surplus countries like the UK are easier compared to deficit countries like the EU and China, where the US demands more concessions [9] - The **personal motivations** of President Trump significantly impact trade relations, as he seeks to showcase major agreements as political achievements [12] - The **market's reaction** to the Federal Reserve's stance indicates a lowered expectation for rate cuts, with a focus on upcoming inflation data to gauge the impact of tariffs [21][22] - The **potential outcomes** of tariff negotiations include lowering tariffs, suspending certain tariffs temporarily, or maintaining the status quo, with each scenario carrying different implications for the market [14][17]