证券研究报告 基础材料/能源 5 月价差有所改善,中游供需拐点渐至 华泰研究 2025年6月06日|中国内地 行业月报 25年5月行业整体价差改善,中游供需拐点渐至 25 年 5 月末 CCPI-原油价差约 731,环比改善,处于 2012年以来 30%左 右分位数。5月美国关税降低,油价有所上行,下游化工品价差环比亦有所 改善。5 月提价产品主要系烯草酮、TDI、尿素等供给改善和出口需求拉动 等品种。我们认为,25H2 伴随需求复苏及资本开支显著降速叠加供给侧自 主调整,化工周期品有望迎来复苏拐点。 1-4 月行业资本开支增速延续回落，5 月 PMI 数据为 49.5 据国家统计局,25年1-4月化学原料与化学制品业固定资产完成额累计同 比+1.3%,行业资本开支增速延续回落。我们认为,竞争程度的加剧导致 22H2 以来化工多数子行业盈利中枢显著下移,企业资本开支意愿或逐步 降低,行业供给侧有望迎来持续的自我调整和优化阶段,部分行业产能拐 点将至。需求侧而言,25年5月国内 PMI 数据为 49.5,对等关税有所缓 和,后续伴随国内经济复苏以及亚非拉等地区需求增长,中长期出口增长 趋势仍较乐观,终端需求有望 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.20 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.27%, and a net profit of 286 million yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 796 million yuan, a decline of 4.32%, with a net profit of 144 million yuan, down 9.29% year-on-year. The company aims for a revenue target of 2.30 billion yuan and a profit target of 405 million yuan for 2025 [8][9] - The company’s dividend proposal for 2024 includes a cash dividend of 4.50 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a total cash dividend of 213 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 74.5% [8] - The company’s long-term outlook remains positive due to the recovery of demand for liquor in Xinjiang and ongoing marketing reforms [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 2.20 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 287 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.3%. For 2026 and 2027, the net profit is expected to be 299 million yuan and 337 million yuan, respectively, indicating growth rates of 4.4% and 12.6% [7][8] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is reported at 52.3%, an increase of 4.06 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is 13.1%, down 2.44 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 87 million yuan, a significant decrease of 71.0% year-on-year, with cash received from sales declining by 2.23% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, with a focus on strategic goals for future growth and a significant dividend proposal for 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.27%, and a net profit of 286 million, down 15.9% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 549 million, a decline of 6.61%, with net profit at 45 million, down 59.6% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 796 million, a decrease of 4.32%, and net profit was 144 million, down 9.29% [1]. - The combined revenue for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 1.35 billion, a decline of 5.27%, with net profit at 189 million, down 30% [1]. Dividend Policy - The proposed dividend for 2024 is 4.50 yuan per 10 shares (before tax), totaling 213 million, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 74.5% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, high-end liquor revenue was 1.53 billion, up 4.27%, with a volume decrease of 13.6% and a price increase of 20.7% [2]. - Mid-range liquor revenue was 506 million, down 8.17%, with a volume decrease of 6.47% and a price decrease of 1.82% [2]. - Low-end liquor revenue was 134 million, down 20.5%, with a volume decrease of 27.1% and a price increase of 8.99% [2]. - In terms of regions, domestic revenue was 1.6 billion, down 5.81%, accounting for 73.7%, while external revenue was 571 million, up 16.7%, accounting for 26.3% [2]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 was 13.1%, down 2.44 percentage points, primarily due to increased tax and fees as a percentage of revenue and rising expense ratios [3]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 52.3%, up 4.06 percentage points, attributed to improved product mix [3]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin was 18.0%, down 1.27 percentage points, mainly due to a decrease in gross profit margin [4]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 48.8%, down 3.12 percentage points, likely due to changes in product mix and price declines [4]. Cash Flow Analysis - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 87 million, down 71%, with cash received from sales at 2.25 billion, down 2.23% [4]. - In Q1 2025, the operating cash flow was -59 million, compared to 160 million in the same period last year, due to a decrease in cash received from sales [4]. - Cash received from sales in Q1 2025 was 587 million, down 24.4%, indicating cash flow growth lagging behind revenue growth [4].

其中：挖掘机61%；装载机60.7%；汽车起重机75.8%；履带起重机60.3%；塔式起重机43.9%；压路机49.6%； 摊铺机53.2%；旋挖钻机48.4%；非公路矿用自卸车50.1%；混凝土泵车42.2%；搅拌车37.7%；叉车56.5%。 【来源：中国工程机械工业协会】 2025年开工情况 数据回顾 据中国工程机械工业协会统计： 2025年5月，工程机械主要产品月平均工作时长为84.5小时，同比下降3.86%，环比下降6.25%。 其中：挖掘机72.6小时；装载机93.9小时；汽车起重机119小时；履带起重机93小时；塔式起重机55.7小时；压 路机40.8小时；摊铺机42.9小时；旋挖钻机75.6小时；非公路矿用自卸车166小时；混凝土泵车51.2小时；搅拌 车74.6小时；叉车97.6小时。 2025年5月，工程机械主要产品月开工率为59.5%，同比下降5.01个百分点，环比下降2.45个百分点。 2024年开工情况 数据回顾 ·往期回顾· 【行业热点】 1 业绩改观，工程机械行业复苏或已在路上？ ◆ 2025年4月工程机械主要产品月平均工作时长为90.1小时，同比增长3.20% ◆ 2025年3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 summer film season has officially begun with the announcement of over 60 films, showcasing a diverse range of genres and themes, promising a three-month cinematic celebration for audiences [1][4]. Group 1: Film Lineup - The lineup includes highly anticipated Chinese films such as "East Extreme Island," "The Stage," "Life Conference," "Lychee of Chang'an," and the "Unnamed" series, alongside international blockbusters like "Superman," "How to Train Your Dragon," "Jurassic World: Rebirth," and "Kung Fu Dream: Fusion Path" [4]. - Animation enthusiasts can look forward to domestic titles such as "The Legend of Luo Xiaohei 2," "Son of Time," "Little Monsters of Langlang Mountain," "Pipilu and Luxixi's 309 Dark Room," and "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf: Dawn of a Foreign Country" [4]. Group 2: Structural Advantages - The summer film season exhibits three structural advantages: 1. A large star cast and high production standards, with renowned directors like Chen Kexin and Guan Hu returning, and strong performances from actors like Zhang Ziyi and Ren Suxi [4]. 2. A diverse range of themes, including historical adaptations like "Lychee of Chang'an" and contemporary narratives like "Against the Wind," catering to various audience preferences [4]. 3. A powerful IP matrix, with sequels like "Unnamed" series and "The Legend of Luo Xiaohei 2" combining with new IPs to potentially create box office hits [4]. Group 3: Market Impact - The simultaneous launch of the "Light and Shadow Blooming China Tour" nationwide film week is expected to enhance the summer film season, with a focus on weekly key film releases and differentiated competition between domestic and international works [4]. - The combination of mainstream and commercial films is anticipated to lead to record-breaking box office performance in 2025, marking a significant milestone in the recovery of the Chinese film market [4].

Group 1 - Silver and platinum prices have surged, with silver reaching a high of $36.263 per ounce, the highest since February 2012, and platinum hitting $1172.59 per ounce, the highest in nearly two years [1][2] - Year-to-date, silver has increased by approximately 24% and platinum by 28%, comparable to gold's performance [1] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to geopolitical tensions, fluctuating tariff policies, and recovering demand, alongside technical factors driving price increases [1][2] Group 2 - The gold-silver ratio reached a historical high of 106 when gold prices surged to $3500 per ounce, prompting hedge funds to shift positions from gold to silver [2] - Historical trends indicate that when the gold-silver ratio exceeds 80, silver has a 70% probability of experiencing a price increase, with expectations of returning to a more reasonable range of 60-70 [2] - Strong physical silver demand from India and recovering platinum demand from China are contributing to the market's upward momentum [2][3] Group 3 - Economic recovery is expected to significantly boost industrial demand for silver, which is essential in various sectors such as electronics, photovoltaics, and automotive manufacturing [3] - Silver's role in clean energy technologies provides a solid fundamental support for its price increase [3] - Current market analysis suggests that silver's upward trend is likely to continue until a significant risk event disrupts the price trajectory [3]

金十数据6月6日讯，凯投宏观的安德鲁•肯宁汉写道，欧元区年初的强劲增长掩盖了该地区经济潜在的 疲弱表现。周五公布的数据显示，欧元区一季度增长了0.6%，对此前0.3%增长预期的大幅修正。但这 种快速增长在很大程度上要归功于美国征收贸易关税预期推动的药品出口激增。肯宁汉说，德国和爱尔 兰这两个重要的药品生产国在很大程度上支持了此次上修。他说，这种情况将在第二季度初出现逆转。 他警告说："从这种波动来看，潜在的情况是一种微弱的周期性复苏。" 凯投宏观：欧元区由关税引发的增长无法持续 ...

超配（维持） 食品饮料行业双周报（2025/05/23-2025/06/05） 白酒动销平淡，关注啤酒等旺季消费 投资要点： ◼ 风险提示：原材料价格波动、产品提价不及预期、渠道开展不及预期、 行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险等。 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 周 报 行 业 资料来源：同花顺,东莞证券研究所 相关报告 证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业 2025 年 6 月 6 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 行 业 研 究 ◼ 行情回顾：2025年5月23日-2025年6月5日，SW食品饮料行业指数整体下 跌1.83%，板块涨幅位居申万一级行业第二十六位，跑输同期沪深300指 数约0.90个百分 ...

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - Broadcom reported Q2 adjusted net revenue of $15 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $14.96 billion, and expects Q3 revenue around $15.8 billion, slightly above the forecast of $15.72 billion [2] - The company anticipates continued growth in AI chip sales into FY2026 due to increased spending from major clients on AI inference [2] - Other semiconductor companies, such as STMicroelectronics and Texas Instruments, have also indicated positive demand outlooks, suggesting a sustained recovery in the global semiconductor industry [2] Group 2: Ethylene Export Restrictions - Recent reports indicate that the U.S. government has notified energy companies to apply for licenses to export ethane to China, with one company's request being denied [2] - This move is perceived as a response to China's rare earth export controls, potentially impacting domestic ethylene cracking enterprises due to reliance on U.S. imports [2] Group 3: Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a significant downturn, with 108 Chinese lithium companies reporting a 11.87% decline in overall revenue in 2024, and a 67.27% drop in net profit [5] - Over 30 lithium manufacturing companies have ceased operations in the past two and a half years, with total investments exceeding 100 billion [5] - Northvolt's bankruptcy filing is seen as a landmark event in the industry's inventory reduction and capacity cut cycle, indicating a potential upcoming recovery phase [5] Group 4: Consumer Sector - Baiya Co. achieved revenue of 999.5 million yuan in Q1 2025, a significant increase of 30.10% year-on-year, with net profit rising by 27.27% [7] - The company experienced a notable growth in offline channels, with revenue from this segment reaching 650 million yuan, up 49% year-on-year [7] - Baiya's expansion into non-core provinces has resulted in a 125.1% increase in revenue, indicating a strong national growth strategy [7]

Group 1 - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong rally, with silver prices reaching a 13-year high and platinum hitting a two-year high, indicating investor enthusiasm for industrial precious metals [1] - As of Friday, spot silver continued its upward trend, having surged 4.5% the previous day, while platinum prices rose by 1.7% during the day, and gold also saw an increase [1] - The recent price increases are driven by both technical momentum and fundamental improvements, with strong physical silver demand in India and a recovery in platinum demand in China providing significant market support [1] Group 2 - Over the past 12 months, gold has risen over 40%, primarily supported by escalating global trade tensions and continued central bank purchases [1] - Although silver and platinum have year-to-date increases of approximately 19% and 13% respectively, they lag behind gold; however, their industrial properties are crucial drivers, with silver being a key material for solar panels and platinum widely used in internal combustion engines and catalytic converters [1] - Predictions indicate that both silver and platinum markets may face supply shortages this year [1] Group 3 - If silver can maintain a price above $35 per ounce, it may trigger increased retail investor interest; platinum ETF holdings have increased by over 3% since mid-May, indicating a return of funds to the market [1] - Silver ETFs have seen continuous inflows since February, with a nearly 8% increase in holdings [1] - Palladium prices also rose by 1.4% on Friday, influenced by market sentiment [1] Group 4 - As of the latest report, spot gold is priced at $3,368.87 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 2.4%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index has slightly risen by 0.1% [2] - The market is focused on upcoming U.S. employment data, with an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims reinforcing expectations for at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - The current precious metals rally reflects a blend of safe-haven demand and industrial recovery, with silver and platinum needing to maintain key price levels while monitoring ETF fund flows and economic data for sustainability of the upward trend [2]