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市场下游需求相对乐观 预计沥青价格短期震荡偏强
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-26 08:47
数据显示,5月26日华东地区沥青现货价格报价3580.00元/吨,相较于期货主力价格(3526.00元/吨)升 水54.00元/吨。 (5月26日)全国沥青价格一 览表 | 商品名 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 称 | | 地 | | 型 | | | | 沥青 | 型号:70#;用途分类:重交沥 | 京博石 | 3570元/ | 出厂价 | 山东省/滨州 | 山东京博石油化工有限 | | (70#) | 青; | 化 | 吨 | | 市 | 公司 | | 沥青 | 型号:70#;用途分类:重交沥 | 国产 | 3570元/ | 市场价 | 山东省 | 东营春强化工有限公司 | | (70#) | 青; | | 吨 | | | | | 沥青 | 型号:70#;用途分类:重交沥 | 国产 | 3570元/ | 市场价 | 山东省 | 山东盈邦沥青科技有限 | | (70#) | 青; | | 吨 | | | 公司 | | 沥青 | 型号:70#;用途分类:重交沥 | 东明石 | ...
怎么判断股指期货空头增仓和多头增仓呢?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 08:12
首先,咱们得知道啥是空头和多头。简单来说,多头就是那些觉得股票指数会涨,所以买入股指期货的人;而空头呢,就是那 些觉得指数会跌,所以卖出股指期货的人。 空头增仓,就是空头们觉得指数还得跌,于是他们增加了卖出的股指期货的数量。这样一来,市场上的空头头寸就变多了。 多头增仓呢,就是多头们觉得指数要涨,他们纷纷买入股指期货,市场上的多头头寸也就变多了。 怎么判断空头增仓? 1.看持仓量变化: 如果某个股指期货的持仓量在持续增加,那有可能是空头在增仓。因为每增加一手空头持仓,就得有对应的一手多头持仓(虽 然不一定同时发生,但总持仓量是相等的)。但咱们要看的是趋势,如果持仓量一直往上涨,那空头增仓的可能性就大了。 2.观察价格走势: 如果指数在下跌,同时持仓量还在增加,那很可能就是空头在增仓。因为价格下跌时,多头可能不太愿意买入,而空头则会趁 机增加卖出量。 如果指数在上涨,同时持仓量也在增加,那很可能就是多头在增仓。因为价格上涨时,多头更愿意买入,推高价格。 3.看成交量: 成交量也是判断多头增仓的一个重要指标。如果成交量放大,同时价格也在上涨,那多头增仓的可能性就更大了。因为成交量 放大意味着有更多的交易在发生,而 ...
【MA周报】供需压力增大,现货明显走弱-20250526
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 05:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Methanol is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The reasons are that Iranian plants are operating at high capacity, the supply is rapidly recovering, non-Iranian imports are also increasing, and the import volume has reached a five-year high. The domestic load has climbed to a high level after the Qingming Festival. With the return of domestic and foreign supply, the production pressure of methanol has increased. Although the subsequent MTO start-up is expected to increase, the traditional demand is average and will enter the off-season, making it difficult to digest the increased supply. Overall, methanol will enter a weakening period and start seasonal inventory accumulation [5]. - The prices of both the futures and spot markets of methanol have declined significantly. After the temporary improvement in trading due to the suspension of tariffs last week, the market has returned to a weak reality. The fundamentals have changed little this week, with the start-up in Iran recovering. There are still sufficient expectations for imports in the future. Although the Sierbang plant has restarted, the traditional downstream will enter the off-season, increasing the pressure. Currently, methanol is in a bearish scenario, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of inventory accumulation in the future [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Production - End Profit and Load - **Production Profit**:动力煤价格弱势下行,目前处于季节性用电淡季,新能源、水电等清洁能源发电量增长,电厂日耗低位,港口出货以终端长协为主,市场参与者观望情绪浓厚,降库压力仍存,产地维持正常生产,下游多以刚需拉运为主。煤制端生产利润依然丰厚,天然气制利润承压 [48]. - **Domestic Start - up and Output**:近期部分装置检修,导致开工下滑,但整体仍处于高位。煤制开工是关注重点,占比70%以上,天然气制开工有明显季节性,焦炉气制受环保因素影响。甲醇日产量方面,非CTO总量为136,653吨,煤制(不含联醇)为110,000吨,天然气制为19,384吨等 [72][88]. Import Profit, External Supply, and Import Volume - **Import Profit and Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Markets**: The global methanol price has weakened. The CFR China price has declined following the domestic price. Although Southeast Asian plants are under maintenance, the demand is weak, and the price has dropped. The Indian price has decreased, and the European price has continued to decline significantly after stabilizing. The supply from the external market has increased, but there are few buyers. The import profit of Iranian goods and the price differences between Southeast Asia, India, the US, and Europe and China have shown different trends [99]. - **External Start - up Load and Output**: The external start - up has rebounded. The 1.65 - million - ton plant of Iranian usadana has reportedly restarted, and the start - up rates of Kareh and 2PC have also recovered. In other regions, a 1.3 - million - ton plant in Egypt has shut down, the 1.7 - million - ton plant of Petronas in Southeast Asia has been under maintenance since early May, and the Brunei plant is planned to be under maintenance at the end of May. The global daily start - up rates and daily outputs of different regions such as the Middle East, Iran, the US, South America, and Europe have different values [116][140]. - **Import Volume and Arrival Volume**: In April, the import volume was 787,700 tons, the export volume was 54,400 tons, and the net import volume was 723,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 262,700 tons compared to March. With the recovery of Iranian start - up, the import volume will rebound to a high level in May and June. The total arrival volume in the week was 180,000 tons, with 480,000 tons in East China and 460,000 tons in South China [151][146]. Downstream Profit and Load - **Emerging Downstream Profit and Load**: As the price of port methanol has declined, the profit of MTO has recovered, but the MTO plants in the inland are relatively under pressure due to the firm methanol price. In terms of plants, Sierbang was expected to be under maintenance from April 15 and restarted on May 19, Xingxing has increased its load to full capacity, Ningxia Baofeng Phase II is under maintenance until early June, Shandong Hengtong's MTO plant is operating at a low load, and China Coal Shaanxi Yulin plans to shut down for maintenance on May 10 for 40 days [155]. - **Traditional Downstream Profit and Load**: The traditional downstream is gradually weakening, but the profit has improved due to the decline in methanol price. Formaldehyde enterprises are under increasing pressure as the downstream panel factories enter the off - season and mainly make rigid demand purchases. The acetic acid plant is operating at a high level with relatively low overall pressure, and the dimethyl ether market has weak supply and demand. The MTBE load has declined from a high level, and MTBE production enterprises are suffering serious losses due to the decline in crude oil and refined oil prices. Currently, there are still export orders for support, but the future is expected to be weak. The profit and start - up of BDO are poor, and downstream buyers mainly make rigid demand purchases [189][195]. Inland and Port Inventory - **Inland Inventory**: According to Longzhong data, the inland inventory increased by 200 tons to 336,000 tons this week, and the enterprise order backlog was 235,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38,400 tons. The market sentiment is poor, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has decreased, and the transactions have decreased, resulting in a decline in the backlog of orders from sample enterprises and relatively stable inventory [234]. - **Port Inventory**: According to Zhuochuang data, the port inventory has slightly increased by 10,500 tons to 629,500 tons this week, with an increase of 32,000 tons in East China and a decrease of 21,500 tons in South China. The提货 volume has increased month - on - month, but the arrivals are also increasing, and the inventory in the downstream social warehouses and factory raw material warehouses has increased to a certain extent [260].
白糖棉花:市场动态与价格走势分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-26 03:19
Core Insights - The raw sugar market is experiencing wide fluctuations in prices, influenced by reduced sugar beet planting area in Germany and projected sugar production in India for the 2024/25 season [1] - The cotton market is facing a decline in global production, particularly in China and Australia, while demand shows signs of slowing down despite a year-on-year increase in retail [1] Sugar Market Analysis - Germany's sugar beet planting area for the 2025/26 season is down by 6.6% to approximately 408,500 hectares due to low EU sugar prices [1] - India's sugar production for the 2024/25 season is estimated at 26.11 million tons, with ending stocks of 4.8 to 5 million tons, sufficient to meet domestic demand in late 2025 [1] - Domestic sugar prices in China range from 6,120 to 6,200 CNY/ton in Guangxi and 5,910 to 5,960 CNY/ton in Yunnan, with import prices estimated at 4,760 to 4,790 CNY/ton for quota imports and 6,060 to 6,090 CNY/ton for non-quota imports [1] - The total sugar production in Yunnan for the 2024/25 season is projected at 2.45 million tons, with a national production estimate of 11.2 million tons, slightly above the Ministry of Agriculture's forecast [1] - The import sugar profit window has opened, but pressure remains as prices are expected to gradually decline [1] Cotton Market Analysis - The USDA forecasts a year-on-year decline in global cotton production for the 2025/26 season, with significant reductions in China and Australia, while Brazil's production is expected to increase and the US remains stable [1] - Retail sales in April showed a year-on-year increase, but the growth rate is slowing, and textile companies' operating rates are stable month-on-month, indicating limited support from seasonal demand [1] - China's clothing export value decreased year-on-year in April, and US cotton imports are low [1] - Commercial cotton stocks have decreased month-on-month and are at a near historical low, while textile companies' finished goods inventory has started to decline [1] - The international market is currently dominated by macroeconomic factors, with limited impact from fundamentals, leading to expectations of low fluctuations in ICE cotton prices [1] - In the domestic market, macro influences are weakening, and there are no significant drivers from fundamentals, with Zheng cotton prices entering a new fluctuation range [1]
尿素:内需偏弱,出口支撑,震荡运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 02:21
2025 年 05 月 26 日 尿素:内需偏弱,出口支撑,震荡运行 | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021541 | yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | | 杨鈜汉 | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | 项 目 | | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | (元/吨) | 1,827 | 1,849 | -22 | | | | 结算价 | (元/吨) | 1,837 | 1,851 | -14 | | | | 成交量 | (手) | 172,580 | 123,929 | 48651 | | (09合约) | | 持仓量 | (手) | 214,818 | 223,161 | -8343 | | | | 仓单数量 | (吨) | 7,548 | 7,573 | -25 | | | | 成交额 | (万元) | 633,927 | 458,716 | 175210 | | | 差 | | 山东地区基差 | ...
关注几内亚政策变动,氧化铝延续偏强
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 02:09
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The news about Guinea's mines still has uncertainties, and the unstable raw material supply is expected to support the alumina price to remain strong. However, after the significant increase in the alumina price, the profit margin has recovered, and the production willingness of enterprises has increased. There may be复产 in the future, so the production changes of alumina enterprises need to be closely monitored. The short - term supply - demand situation of alumina is tight, and the price remains favorable, but the increase may be limited [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From May 16th to May 23rd, the alumina futures (active) rose from 2890 yuan/ton to 3169 yuan/ton, an increase of 279 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot rose from 2991 yuan/ton to 3220 yuan/ton, an increase of 229 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased from 46 yuan/ton to - 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB remained at 370 US dollars/ton; the import profit and loss increased from - 338.93 yuan/ton to - 91.44 yuan/ton, an increase of 247.5 yuan/ton; the exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 197,535 tons to 156,999 tons, a decrease of 40,536 tons; the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons; the prices of domestic bauxite in Shanxi, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou remained stable, while the Guinea CIF increased from 70 US dollars/ton to 72 US dollars/ton [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 9.96% last week, closing at 3169 yuan/ton. The national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3220 yuan/ton on Friday, up 229 yuan/ton from last week. The spot circulation volume of domestic bauxite is limited, and the alumina enterprises have no plan to adjust the ore purchase price this week. The price continues to run stably. For imported bauxite, the future development of the affected mining areas in Guinea is still unclear, and it is necessary to further monitor whether the subsequent development of this event will worsen the bauxite supply situation. In the short term, the price of imported bauxite is clearly supported by positive factors, and the price center may rise. On the supply side, alumina enterprises are both reducing and increasing production. Some alumina enterprises in Shanxi are reducing production, while some previously overhauled enterprises have ended their overhauls, and new northern production capacities are releasing output. The operating production capacity of alumina has slightly increased, the supply change is limited, and the spot is still in a short - term tight situation. As of May 22nd, China's alumina production capacity was 112.2 million tons, the operating production capacity was 86.35 million tons, and the operating rate was 76.96%. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Shandong is continuing to transfer to Yunnan. In addition, the production capacity in Guangxi and Sichuan is being restored. Overall, the operating production capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has continued to increase this week, and the demand for alumina has slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 130,658 tons to 157,000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons [4] Market Outlook - Last week, the mining end in Guinea experienced a process of escalating and then easing disturbances. At the beginning of the week, the Guinea government designated multiple mining licenses as strategic reserve areas, making the resumption of production in the suspended mining areas in Guinea more uncertain. Near the weekend, there was news that the mine owners whose bauxite mining licenses were revoked in Guinea could resume production by paying the local development contribution or participating in the re - bidding. On the supply side, alumina enterprises both reduced and increased production last week. Some alumina plants in Shanxi reduced production, while some previously overhauled enterprises released output after resuming production. The theoretical operating production capacity increased slightly compared with the previous week. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was basically stable, and there was still a slight gap in the theoretical production capacity matching last week. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease by 130,658 tons to 157,000 tons last week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 7200 tons. Overall, the news about Guinea's mines still has uncertainties, and the unstable raw material supply is expected to support the alumina price to remain strong. However, after the significant increase in the alumina price, the profit margin has recovered, and the production willingness of enterprises has increased. There may be复产 in the future, so the production changes of alumina enterprises need to be closely monitored. The short - term supply - demand situation of alumina is tight, and the price remains favorable, but the increase may be limited [6] Industry News - The issue of the Guinea government revoking the mining licenses of some mines has further escalated. On the evening of Tuesday, May 20, 2025, the transitional authorities read out a decree on national television, deciding to classify multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas, including concessions, industrial and semi - industrial mining licenses, and exploration licenses for bauxite, iron, gold, diamonds, and graphite. In the first quarter of this year, the characteristic industries in Bozhou District, Zunyi City showed new vitality. The electrolytic aluminum output exceeded 100,000 tons, and the output value of the bauxite industrial chain increased. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in April 2025, China's alumina output was 7.323 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%; the cumulative output from January to April was 29.919 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. In April, the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%; the cumulative output from January to April was 14.793 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. In April, the aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%; the cumulative output from January to April was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In April, the aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%; the cumulative output from January to April was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7% [7] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina current - continuous one inter - period spreads, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][10][11][12]
国泰海通|海外策略:贸易摩擦缓和期资产价格如何走
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-05-25 13:39
报告导读: ①回顾2018-19年,中美贸易摩擦具有复杂性和长期性,资产价格表现也因 此受到很大影响。②资产价格变化三点规律:一是其中长期走势仍取决于基本面,例如 中国股市走势与国内基本面高度相关。③二是市场对于贸易领域负面信号的反应更加敏 感,对于缓和信号相对平淡。④三是不同资产敏感度不同,股、汇更敏感,债市则影响 较小,黄金配置价值随贸易摩擦持续而上升。 2018-19 年中美贸易摩擦共历时近两年,期间经历四次缓和窗口期。 具体包括: 2018 年 5 月华盛顿 会谈后双方发布联合声明、 2018 年 12 月阿根廷 G20 峰会双方元首会晤、 2019 年 6 月大阪 G20 峰 会后的谈判重启、 2019 年 10 月华盛顿会谈取得实质性进展。整体来看四轮缓和阶段,缓和期的持续时 间长短不一,此外前三次谈判后均因美国单方面撕毁协议等因素而中断缓和期,可见贸易摩擦期间的谈判 和缓和仍具有较大不确定性。 具体来看: 2018 年 5 月:中美发布经贸磋商联合声明,但缓和期持续仅 10 天。 缓和期内美股走势偏 震荡,此后中美股市走势出现分化:在关税落地叠加金融去杠杆的双重压力下, AH 股持续下跌,而美股 ...
碳酸锂:矿山出现停产预期,但仍有增量弥补,震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-25 10:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be volatile. The price of the LC2507 contract is projected to range between 55,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton [1][4][5] - The market is transitioning from trading the logic of collapsing mine - end costs to trading the trend of mine shutdowns. However, due to the lack of concentrated shutdowns of high - cost projects and relatively low costs, there is no room for price rebound [4] - For hedging, it is recommended to increase the proportion of buying hedging to 50% in the short - term, and buy spot ore and sell on the futures market to lock in processing profits. In the long - term, selling hedging should still be the main strategy, with a short - term proportion of 30% [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - The LC2507 contract of lithium carbonate declined, with positions decreasing and then stabilizing, followed by a decline with increasing positions. The LC2507 contract closed at 60,960 yuan/ton, down 840 yuan/ton week - on - week; the LC2509 contract closed at 62,300 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price dropped 1,450 yuan/ton to 63,050 yuan/ton [1] - The SMM basis (2505 contract) weakened by 610 yuan/ton to 2,090 yuan/ton. The Fubao trader's premium/discount quotation was + 490 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spread between the 2507 - 2509 contracts was - 1,340 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - The lithium ore price dropped to $690/ton, but the decline rate slowed. Some mines started to cut or halt production. In May, the Bikita mining area's emissions nearly stopped, and concentrator work was expected to be cut or stopped. Dongpeng's production cut affected about 1,500 tons of LCE per month [2] - In April, China imported 622,900 tons of spodumene, a 16.5% increase from the previous month, and 28,300 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56.3% increase from the previous month. In the future, the shipments of spodumene and lithium salts from Mali's Kodal and Goulamina projects will gradually increase, while shipments from Zimbabwe projects are expected to decrease. Lithium salt imports are expected to decrease due to high inventories and the cancellation of the reserve price [2] - This week, the lithium carbonate output was 16,093 tons, a 3.23% decrease from the previous week. The overall smelting - end operating rate was 45.75%, a decrease in operation [2] Demand - The 90 - day tariff relaxation period in the US brought a small amount of rush - shipping demand, mainly for the export of energy - storage batteries. However, the tariff level of 40.9% is still higher than the profit of battery cell manufacturers, so the overall effect is limited [2] - This week, the passenger car sales were 382,000 vehicles, among which new energy vehicle sales were 215,000 vehicles, a 3.59% decrease from the previous week. Currently, battery manufacturers' orders to cathode material manufacturers in June are expected to increase month - on - month. However, due to profit losses, cathode material enterprises are maintaining rigid raw material inventory, reducing cathode material production, and actively reducing inventory [2] 3.3 Inventory - The lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly. Upstream enterprises continued to accumulate inventory, while downstream enterprises actively reduced inventory. The lithium carbonate inventory was 13.2 tons, a decrease of 141 tons from last week. The number of futures warrants decreased to 35,800 tons [3] 3.4 Market Outlook - The market is expected to be volatile. The price of the 2507 contract is expected to range between 55,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton. For inter - delivery trading, no recommendation is given for now [4][5]
盘面探底回升,关注需求恢复情况
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-25 05:33
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a monthly pulp report by Guoxin Futures, focusing on the pulp market in May 2025 [2][3] - It analyzes pulp imports, port inventories, external quotes, downstream demand, and provides trading suggestions [3][35] Group 2: Core Views - The pulp futures market bottomed out and rebounded in May 2025. With the unexpected reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the recovery of downstream operating rates, there is a market push - up willingness, but the weak procurement demand of downstream paper mills limits the upward space [8] - International pulp mills' new round of quotes lower the price of imported softwood pulp and reduce the supply of hardwood pulp, so the prices of softwood and hardwood pulp may diverge [3][18][35] - The recovery of downstream operating rates may boost industry expectations. Considering the market situation, the operation suggestion is to try long positions at low prices [3][35] Group 3: Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review - In May 2025, pulp futures bottomed out and rebounded. Although the market had a push - up willingness due to tariff reduction and operating rate recovery, the weak procurement demand of downstream paper mills led to a slight decline after the price increase [8] 2. Pulp Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume**: In April 2025, China imported 2893000 tons of pulp. From January to April, the cumulative import volume and amount increased by 1% and 0.5% respectively compared with the same period last year. The import volume of softwood and hardwood pulp in April decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the growth rate of pulp imports is expected to slow down [2][13][34] - **External Quotes**: In May 2025, Arauco in Chile lowered the external quotes of softwood pulp and kraft pulp by 30 dollars per ton. There was no quote for hardwood pulp, and its supply will be reduced in May and June, expected to partially recover in July [3][18][35] - **Port Inventory**: As of May 23, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 2.2164 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.98% and a narrowing increase of 10.26 percentage points [19][34] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Except for the decline of operating rates in the double - copper paper and double - offset paper industries, the operating rates of other base papers increased week - on - week, which may boost industry expectations [3][24][35] - **Imported Softwood Pulp Gross Margin**: The short - term gross margin of silver star spot pulp has slightly recovered, but due to weak downstream demand and the decline of new external quotes, the gross margin of imported softwood pulp is expected to remain low [27][29] - **Price Increase of Imported Pulp**: As of May 22, the weekly average prices of imported softwood, hardwood, and kraft pulp showed different trends, with the price increases of softwood and hardwood pulp narrowing [32] 3. Market Outlook - The market situation is similar to the analysis in the fundamental part. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand, and the operation suggestion is to try long positions at low prices [35]
生猪日报:期价震荡偏弱-20250523
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )· 2025-05-23 01:31
生猪日报 | 2025-05-23 另存为PDF 【期价震荡偏弱】 【市场动态】 1、5月22日,生猪注册仓单663手; 2、LH2507合约以期现回归、交割博弈为主,远月受现货价格下跌和后续出栏量 或继续增加预期影响震荡偏弱运行; 3、主力合约(LH2509)今日增仓2101手,持仓约8.07万手,最高价13685元/ 吨,最低价13515元/吨,收盘于13580元/吨。 【基本面分析】 1、能繁母猪存栏量看,3-12月生猪供应量有望逐月增加,但幅度有限。仔猪数 据看,2025年二三季度生猪出栏量整体震荡增加;需求端来看,上半年较下半 年相比属需求淡季,下半年属需求旺季; 4)虽然我们认为中长期看现货仍有新低可能,但由于其不确定性较高,且短期 市场降重驱动尚不强烈,盘面价格处于相对合理区间,建议暂时观望。 作者: 史香迎 生猪分析师 期货从业资格:F03086321 交易咨询资格:Z0019355 2、 从历史情况和现下基本面来看,肥标差或震荡调整; 3、市场多空逻辑: 空头:①养殖端尚未进行降重,实则利空后市;②后续出栏 量有望持续增加;③二三季度尚未到消费旺季,需求对猪价的支撑有限;多 头:①冻品库存仍 ...