Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive impact of the "China-US Joint Statement" on foreign trade, leading to a surge in orders and shipping activities among Chinese exporters, particularly those exporting to the US [2][9]. Group 1: Impact of the China-US Joint Statement - The "China-US Joint Statement" was released on May 12, agreeing to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, which has led to a rush among foreign trade companies to fulfill backlogged orders within a 90-day buffer period [2][9]. - Companies are experiencing a revival in order volumes, with many US clients resuming shipments that were previously on hold due to tariff policies [10][11]. Group 2: Shipping and Port Activity - Shipping rates have increased significantly, with the price for shipping containers to the US West Coast reaching $6,000, up from approximately $2,500 before the announcement [12][13]. - Port activities are expected to peak in the coming weeks, with an increase in cargo truck volumes observed at key ports like Yantian Port, which handles over one-third of Guangdong's foreign trade [4][6]. Group 3: Order Fulfillment and Production - Companies are ramping up production to meet the renewed demand, with reports indicating a 20% increase in orders for some logistics providers [6][7]. - The logistics and shipping sectors are preparing for a significant increase in order fulfillment, with expectations of surpassing pre-tariff levels in the coming weeks [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive impact of the recent tariff reductions between China and the United States on a knitting factory in Shanghai, which is now able to resume shipping previously delayed orders and is considering expanding into the European market [1] Company Summary - The knitting factory located in Li Ta Hui Town, Songjiang District, Shanghai, received notification from a U.S. client to proceed with shipments after a significant reduction in tariffs [1] - The factory had over 50,000 finished garments stacked in the packaging workshop for a month, indicating a backlog due to previous tariff issues [1] - The company anticipates that it can complete the shipment of 300,000 delayed items within 90 days following the tariff adjustments [1] Industry Summary - The recent tariff adjustments are expected to facilitate smoother trade relations between China and the U.S., benefiting manufacturers reliant on American markets [1] - The factory's decision to explore the European market signifies a strategic shift in response to changing trade dynamics and potential new opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent changes in tariffs on rubber and tire imports to the United States, highlighting that while tariffs on certain Chinese tires remain unchanged, other products have seen a reduction in tariffs, which may have limited impact on the overall market due to low export volumes from China [2][5]. Tariff Modifications - Tariffs on Chinese passenger car and light truck tires remain at 25%, while other Chinese tires have been reduced to 10% (with a 24% rate paused for 90 days) [2][3]. - For Southeast Asian tires, tariffs remain unchanged at 25% for passenger and light truck tires, and 0% for other types [2]. Impact on Rubber Products - The reduction in tariffs for Chinese rubber products is down to 10% from a previous 24% [3]. - The actual volume of Chinese tires exported to the U.S. is low, with only 310,000 tons expected in 2024, translating to a mere 50,000 tons of rubber, indicating that tariff changes may not significantly affect rubber consumption [4]. Market Reactions and Expectations - The market has experienced a decline of 2,000 points, primarily driven by recession expectations and long positions being liquidated, rather than the direct impact of the 232 tariff [5][9]. - There is a noted decrease in bullish sentiment due to changes in underlying market logic, with supply exceeding market expectations [5][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply from major rubber-producing countries like Thailand and Indonesia has shown a year-on-year increase of over 10%, contradicting previous expectations of supply constraints [11]. - The article suggests that the basic logic of a long-term supply-demand gap may need to be reassessed based on current supply data [10]. U.S. Demand and Economic Indicators - U.S. freight demand has been weak, with cargo volumes near historical lows, which correlates with overall economic performance and PMI levels [18]. - The article emphasizes the need to monitor terminal demand changes and how companies respond to tariff impacts, as these factors will influence inventory cycles [18]. International Tire Manufacturers' Perspectives - Major international tire manufacturers, such as Goodyear and Michelin, have expressed concerns about increased costs due to tariffs, estimating potential annual costs of $300 million, which they plan to pass on to consumers [29][32]. - There is an expectation that the effects of tariffs on tire imports may not be fully realized until the third quarter of the year [30]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment among international tire manufacturers is pessimistic regarding the impact of trade wars on tire and automotive demand, with expectations of reduced production in North America [32][33].

| 财产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张庆 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 118 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3210 | 0 | 108 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3340 | 3310 | 30 | 238 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3033 | 3036 | -3 | 187 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3079 | 3082 | -3 | 141 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3102 | 3103 | -1 | 118 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3260 | 3280 | -20 | 32 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3200 | 10 | -18 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are maintaining a range-bound operation due to a tight supply in the short term and a lack of significant demand boost from downstream industries [1] - The main contract for tin closed at 265,770 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.92% [1] - The Congo (DRC) has become China's largest source of imported tin concentrate, surpassing Myanmar, with the Bisie tin mine resuming operations after a temporary halt due to armed conflict [1] Group 2 - The recovery of the Bisie tin mine is progressing well, with the first batch of tin concentrate expected to enter the smelting phase by June 2025 [2] - The operating rates of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi remain low due to raw material supply shortages, with the import volume from Myanmar falling below the warning line for several months [1] - The overall order situation from downstream customers is limited, as the willingness to restock in the electronics and home appliance sectors is low despite relatively high tin prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with the U.S. canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating, which has revitalized the foreign trade sector and created a "window period" for businesses to resume operations and shipments [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the joint statement, there has been a surge in inquiries and orders from U.S. clients who previously postponed orders due to tariffs, indicating a quick recovery in the foreign trade market [2][4]. - The electronics market in Shenzhen has seen a rapid return to activity, with prices for certain components, such as CPUs, dropping significantly, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [3][4]. - Companies are eager to capitalize on the 90-day window to resume shipments, with many reporting an increase in demand for shipping services [4][5]. Group 2: Shipping and Logistics - There is an expectation of a "rush" in shipping activities as companies aim to maximize their exports during the temporary tariff relief period, although some logistics providers have not yet observed a significant increase in shipping volumes [5]. - Freightos analysis indicates that while shipping rates may rise due to increased demand, they are unlikely to reach the high levels seen in the previous year [5]. - Air freight demand is also anticipated to rebound as tariffs decrease, following a period of low demand due to previous high tariffs [5]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Responses - Different industries are responding variably to the tariff changes, with some companies, like those in the consumer electronics sector, expressing caution due to longer production and shipping cycles [7]. - Companies with established overseas warehouses have a buffer against immediate tariff impacts, allowing them to adjust strategies without immediate pressure [7]. - The impact of the tariff changes varies by industry, with some sectors, such as the solar energy industry, viewing the changes as stabilizing rather than transformative [8][9]. Group 4: U.S. Market Reactions - U.S. companies are also reacting quickly, with executives from various sectors indicating plans to expedite shipments of goods previously held up by tariffs [6]. - Industry associations in the U.S. have welcomed the tariff reductions but emphasize the need for long-term, stable trade policies to avoid future disruptions [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the supply - side pressure on the粕类 market is limited, and the futures market shows a volatile rebound. The international soybean market has near - term support, while the domestic粕类 market has a complex situation with some improvement in spot conditions but also uncertainties in supply and demand [4][5]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean futures are strong due to macro - level positives, monthly supply - demand reports, and changes in biodiesel policies. The domestic futures are relatively weak, with the soybean meal market stronger than the rapeseed meal market. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are volatile [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The near - term pressure on the international soybean market is limited. US soybean exports are good, and the April soybean crush volume has a significant year - on - year increase. Brazil's selling pressure is reduced, and the harvest progress is high. The new US soybean crop has good demand but export uncertainty [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market has improved. The oil mill crush volume has increased, and the inventory has slightly risen. The开机率 is relatively high, and the supply is reasonable. The demand for rapeseed meal is strong in the near - term, but the supply is abundant, and there are uncertainties in the long - term [5][6]. 3.3 Macro - level Analysis The reduction of tariffs between China and the US has led to a market recovery, but the粕类 market reaction is limited. The domestic soybean supply is less affected by policies, but there are still uncertainties, and the soybean meal is supported by policies in the long - term [7]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal futures have strengthened slightly. The supply pressure in Brazil may be reduced, but there are still uncertainties. The domestic soybean meal spot has little change, and the inventory pressure may increase with more soybean arrivals and higher开机率, affecting the monthly spreads [8]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market has little change. The recent decline reflects supply uncertainties. The supply is sufficient, and both supply and demand may decrease in the future, with the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal oscillating [8]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: The market is expected to move in a volatile manner. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see. - **Options**: A strategy of selling wide straddles is suggested [9].

Core Viewpoint - Public funds have significantly increased their dividend payouts in 2025, with a total of approximately 87 billion yuan distributed across nearly 1,800 products, marking a substantial growth compared to the previous year's 60 billion yuan from around 1,400 products [3][4]. Group 1: Dividend Distribution - Bond funds are the main contributors to the dividend surge, accounting for over 70% of the total, with notable funds like Zhongyin Fenghe and Huaxia Dingfeng leading in payouts [4][5]. - The top five equity funds in terms of dividend payouts include Huaxia CSI 300 ETF (2.683 billion yuan), Jiashi CSI 300 ETF (2.461 billion yuan), and others, collectively distributing around 17 billion yuan [5][6]. Group 2: Frequency of Dividends - Over 400 funds have issued multiple dividends this year, with some funds like He Xu Zhi Yuan Jia Yue and Xiangcai Xin Rui Bond achieving up to 9 and 6 distributions respectively [7]. - Funds are adapting their dividend schedules based on performance, with some distributing quarterly while others do so flexibly, reflecting strong management of fund operations [7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Fund companies are optimistic about future investment strategies, particularly in sectors like TMT, AI, and military industries, which are expected to maintain high demand [9]. - Recent tariff negotiations between the US and China are anticipated to boost export-driven economic growth, potentially leading to a recovery in market sentiment [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive outcomes of the recent economic talks between China and the United States, emphasizing the agreement to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - The U.S. has committed to canceling 91% of its tariffs and suspending the implementation of 24% reciprocal tariffs, while China will also cancel 91% of its counter-tariffs and suspend 24% of its countermeasures, retaining 10% tariffs on both sides [1]. - The article mentions that the U.S. imposed additional tariffs on China under the pretext of fentanyl issues, to which China responded promptly with both tariff and non-tariff measures to protect its legitimate rights and interests, and these countermeasures remain effective [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel - The steel industry shows strong supply - demand on the industrial side with continuous inventory reduction. Low inventory supports the market, and improved macro - sentiment is expected to repair the valuation. Attention should be paid to the impact of terminal restocking on spot prices. For the October contract, the pressure range for rebar is 3200 - 3250, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3300 - 3400 [1]. Iron Ore - In the short - term, the valuation of iron ore is expected to be repaired, but in the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is maintained. The high - level of molten iron production is approaching its peak, and the supply - demand pressure of iron ore will increase in the future [4]. Coke - The coke market is in a weak pattern. The spot market is slightly declining, and the futures market has a large hedging pressure. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke, and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel reduction and tariff negotiations [6]. Coking Coal - The coking coal market is in a situation of loose supply - demand. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal, and pay attention to the implementation of crude steel reduction and tariff negotiations [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated. The cost is relatively stable, and with positive macro - level news, the price is expected to rebound based on valuation repair [8]. Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese market is in a situation where production is decreasing, and the supply - demand gap is narrowing. With positive macro - level news, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound based on valuation repair [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions have different changes, with some rising and some falling. Futures contract prices also show fluctuations [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while some steel production costs increased. Profits in different regions and varieties also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 0.2 to 245.6 tons, with a 0.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased by 9.5 tons to 874.2 tons, a 1.1% decrease. Rebar production decreased significantly by 4.2% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 29.0 tons to 1476.1 tons, a 2.0% increase. Rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories also increased [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 27.8%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 12.9%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also decreased significantly [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly, and the basis of the 09 - contract for different varieties increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 49.4%, while the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads changed [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 2.5%, the global shipment volume decreased by 4.3%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1%, the 45 - port daily average ore - discharging volume decreased by 5.0%, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased significantly [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.0%, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke spot prices in different regions and futures contract prices showed fluctuations. The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged. The coking profit increased significantly [6]. Supply - The daily average production of full - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly [6]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills increased slightly [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 1.8%, and the inventories of full - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreased [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal spot prices in different regions remained stable, and futures contract prices decreased. The basis increased, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged. The sample coal mine profit decreased slightly [6]. Supply - The raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased slightly [6]. Demand - The demand for coking coal, represented by coke production, decreased slightly [6]. Inventory - The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, while the inventories of full - sample coking plants and ports decreased [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 0.4%. Spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia increased slightly, and the production profit increased slightly. The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased [8]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production increased by 3.9%, and the operating rate increased by 5.8% [8]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 1.1%, and the iron and steel - related demand indicators showed different changes [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 11.8% [8]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicomanganese main contract decreased by 1.0%. Spot prices in different regions increased slightly [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia remained stable, and the production profit situation was not significantly changed [8]. Supply - Silicomanganese production decreased by 1.1%, and the operating rate decreased by 7.9% [8]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand decreased by 1.8%, and the iron and steel - related demand indicators showed different changes [8]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 13.9% [8].