Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - The recent negotiations between China and the US resulted in a temporary suspension of most tariffs, with the US reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and China lowering tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% [3][4] - The current tariff reduction measures are temporary and will last for 90 days, during which further negotiations are expected [4][10] Group 2: Employment Impact - As of 2024, China's import and export sector employs approximately 180 million people, with 40 million in direct employment and 140 million in related upstream and downstream industries [2] Group 3: Industry Impact - The tariff negotiations have led to significant stock price increases in the electric vehicle supply chain and related industries in China [5][8] - The highest tariffs are still applied to syringes and needles due to concerns over fentanyl, which remains a critical issue in the negotiations [7] Group 4: Economic Impact - China's GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2024 is reported at 5.4% [10] - Different scenarios regarding future tariffs could impact GDP growth, with potential reductions of 0.3%, 0.9%, and 2% under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, respectively [12] Group 5: Stock Market Impact - The current price-to-earnings ratio for China's Shanghai Composite Index is 13.8, indicating it is still in a historically undervalued range [20] - Following the announcement of tariff negotiations, the stock market showed positive reactions, recovering losses from earlier declines [22][26]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened higher but experienced a pullback during the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly rising by 0.17% to 3374.87 points, while other major indices declined [1] - Key sectors that performed well included shipping ports, photovoltaic, banking, hotel and catering, and daily chemicals, while military-related stocks such as aerospace and shipbuilding showed significant adjustments [1] - The overnight US stock market saw substantial gains, with the Dow Jones up 2.81%, S&P 500 up 3.26%, and Nasdaq up 4.35%, contrasting with the decline in Hong Kong stocks, where the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.87% [1] Group 2 - A significant factor affecting the foreign exchange market is the upcoming release of the US April CPI, which may influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] - Due to the reduction in tariff risks, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve have shifted, with most market participants now anticipating a potential cut in September rather than July [2] Group 3 - The A-share market's weak performance can be attributed to uncertainties surrounding ongoing tariff negotiations and a potential decrease in expectations for economic stimulus policies, particularly fiscal measures [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a watchful stance and consider adjusting their portfolios to include more tariff-sensitive export stocks, as the overall tariff situation has improved significantly [3]

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida expressed regret over the US imposing a 25% tariff on key automotive parts and is urging the US to reconsider these measures [1] - The US is demanding Japan to "level the trade deficit," which includes conditions such as importing American cars, exempting tariffs, and increasing imports of beef, rice, and seafood [1][3] - Kishida emphasized that Japan will not comply with US demands that link security issues with tariff negotiations [1][3] Group 2: Impact on the Automotive Industry - The automotive industry is a crucial pillar of the Japanese economy, with significant exports to the US [3] - Toyota is expected to face a burden exceeding 1 trillion yen due to tariffs, while other companies like Honda and Nissan are also projected to incur impacts in the hundreds of billions of yen [3] - Kishida indicated that Japan will consider all options to respond to US tariff policies, hinting at a potential strong response to protect the domestic automotive industry [3] Group 3: Japan's Economic Position - Japan holds over 1 trillion USD in US Treasury bonds, raising questions about whether it might leverage this in trade negotiations [3] - Japan's Finance Minister stated that the country does not intend to use the sale of US Treasury bonds as a negotiating tool in trade discussions [3] Group 4: Political Context - Recent allegations of illegal political donations against Kishida could destabilize his position, especially in light of his strong stance in US tariff negotiations [8] - There are speculations that the US might influence Japanese domestic politics in response to Kishida's firm approach towards trade negotiations [8]

这就是盘后出利好的坏处，虽然港股今天回调了，但起码昨天尾盘暴涨过，盘面富贵那也是富贵啊，何况还可以卖掉锁住盈利。A股倒 好，涨没怎么涨，今天还被港股跳水拖累了。还是美股强，没那么博弈，昨晚纳指高开高走，暴涨超4%，底部反弹超过20%，进入技术 性牛市，已经涨回到了3月份的点位。 为什么A股连续两天冲高回落？前两天也有提示大家，A股、港股基本都收复了对等关税后的跌幅，所以，即使对等关税都降低到10%， 也充分反映了。那就是利好落地，部分资金就会借着利好兑现。 再往后看，A股想继续往上涨，要么得强现实-经济复苏，要么得强预期-出刺激政策。在降准降息以及关税谈判落地后，基本上难有更强 劲的利好出现，而且由于对等关税大幅下降到10%，出口压力骤降，甚至会由于补库推动出口走强，那内需政策就没那么急了，A股就 进入了"现实没那么强，预期也没那么强"的混沌期。这种情况下，指数会偏震荡，结构性行情为主。 比较悲观的是对比2018年，2018年5月19日也是达成了暂停互加关税的协议，但A股反而见顶调整；7月6日，美国突然宣布对中国340亿 美元商品加征25%关税，打破了此前协议，A股见底反弹。这种走势突出一个"利好出尽为利空， ...

Group 1: Policy Signals - The April Politburo meeting emphasized "stabilizing employment, economy, market, and expectations" amid external risks, marking a shift towards high-quality development and proactive policy adjustments[1] - The government plans to implement flexible and unconventional policies based on changing circumstances, focusing on timely incremental reserve policies and counter-cyclical adjustments[1] Group 2: Employment and Market Stability - The April 28 press conference highlighted coordinated efforts to stabilize domestic demand and employment, with initiatives like "trade-in" subsidies and support for service consumption[2] - The May 7 press conference focused on stabilizing the stock and real estate markets, including measures like lowering public housing loan rates by 0.25 percentage points and increasing long-term capital market participation[2] Group 3: Incremental Policies and Financial Support - The 90-day tariff "grace period" serves as a crucial window for implementing existing policies and preparing incremental measures, with strong export performance expected to continue into May[3] - The central bank's recent policies, including comprehensive reserve requirement cuts and structural monetary policy rate reductions, aim to lower commercial banks' funding costs and facilitate loan rate reductions[3] Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Revenue Trends - In Q1, broad fiscal revenue fell by 2.6% year-on-year, below the initial target of 0.2%, while fiscal expenditure increased by 5.6% due to government debt financing[4] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to accelerate, with new special bonds projected to grow by 36.5% compared to Q1[4] Group 5: Future Focus Areas - If tariff negotiations progress positively, future policies may shift towards long-term institutional reforms and structural support, emphasizing consumer relief and income growth as key drivers for consumption[5] - Service consumption recovery remains critical, with current levels at only 87.7% of historical trends, indicating significant potential for policy-driven growth[5]

欧元兑美元涨0.26%，现报1.1116。美国财长贝森特淡化了与欧盟迅速达成贸易协议的可能性，称欧盟 存在"集体行动问题"，这阻碍了谈判。"我认为美国和欧洲可能会慢一点，"贝森特在利雅得举行的沙 特-美国投资论坛上被问及关税谈判进展时表示。"我个人认为，欧洲可能存在集体行动问题；比如意大 利想要的东西与法国不同。但我相信，最终我们会达成令人满意的结果，"他继续说道。贝森特对与亚 洲贸易伙伴达成协议较为乐观。他表示，美国已经与日本进行了"非常富有成效的讨论"，并称赞了与印 尼"非常积极"的沟通。他还提到了与韩国和泰国的谈判。他表示："在我这边，进展非常顺利"。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Urea - Despite high domestic urea daily production, short - term maintenance led to a decline. The release of aid - related export orders from May to June and the upcoming summer top - dressing season are expected to support the market. However, price increases will be cautious, and the market is likely to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [5]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices continued to fluctuate at a high level. In the short term, after the market digests macro - level positives, it may focus on the impact of geopolitical factors on supply. Oil prices are expected to remain at a relatively high level. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, and consider strategies to capture volatility on the options side [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply - demand outlook is improving, but the current spot supply is still loose. Consider opportunities such as long PX05 and short crude oil [18]. - PTA: Supply - demand may gradually weaken, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. TA01 is expected to oscillate between 4800 - 5000 [18]. - Ethylene Glycol: Supply - demand will gradually weaken, and there is pressure on the upside in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to port inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates [18]. - Short Fiber: The processing fee is expected to be compressed, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. PF02 is expected to operate between 6800 - 7100 [18]. - Bottle Chip: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the absolute price will follow the cost side. Consider short - term short - selling strategies [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The supply is in a concentrated maintenance phase, and the demand from the alumina industry is improving. The spot price is rising, and the futures market is strong. Consider short - term short - selling opportunities near the resistance level of 2550 [26]. - PVC: Although the futures market has strengthened slightly, the supply - demand surplus problem persists. It is recommended to wait and see during price rebounds and consider short - selling in the medium term [26]. Styrene - In the short term, styrene is expected to remain strong, but be cautious about chasing high prices. The operating range of 06 is expected to move up to 7000 - 7600. Pay attention to the continuity of spot transactions [29]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) - The supply pressure of plastics will gradually decrease in May. The supply pressure of PP will ease slightly in the second quarter. Pay attention to the restocking and export situation of plastic products [32]. Methanol - The inland valuation has downward pressure, and the supply - demand situation is loose. The port has entered a inventory - building period. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract at high prices [35][37]. Summary by Directory Urea Futures Prices - On May 12, the 01 contract closed at 1801 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from May 9; the 05 contract closed at 1925 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the 09 contract closed at 1897 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the methanol main contract closed at 2270 yuan/ton, up 1.93% [1]. Futures Contract Spreads - On May 12, the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 124 yuan/ton, up 14.48% from May 9; the spread between the 05 and 09 contracts was 28 yuan/ton, down 33.33% [2]. Upstream Raw Materials - As of May 13, the prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite small pieces, steam coal, and synthetic ammonia remained unchanged compared to May 12 [3]. Spot Market Prices - As of May 13, domestic and international spot prices of urea remained unchanged [3]. Supply - Demand Overview - Daily data: Domestic urea daily production decreased by 1.20% to 19.72 million tons on May 8 compared to before. - Weekly data: Domestic urea weekly production increased by 0.21% to 139.60 million tons; factory inventory decreased by 10.58% to 106.56 million tons; port inventory increased by 12.71% to 13.30 million tons [5]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - On May 13, Brent crude oil was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.64% from May 12; WTI was at 61.96 dollars/barrel, up 0.02%; SC was at 474.80 yuan/barrel, up 1.34% [14]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - On May 12, Brent crude oil (July) was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.6% from May 9; WTI (June) was at 61.95 dollars/barrel, up 1.5% [18]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - On May 12, POY150/48 price was 6675 yuan/ton, up 1.4% from May 9; FDY150/96 price was 6845 yuan/ton, up 1.7% [18]. PX - related - CFR China PX was at 785 dollars/ton on May 12, unchanged from May 9 [18]. PTA - related - PTA East China spot price was 4840 yuan/ton on May 12, up 2.7% from May 9 [18]. MEG - related - MEG port inventory was 75.1 million tons on May 12, down 6.8% from May 6 [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Prices - On May 12, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2593.8 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from before; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price was 4660 yuan/ton, unchanged [22]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - FOB East China port caustic soda was at 395 dollars/ton on May 8, down 1.3% from May 1 [22]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 87.5% on May 9, up 1.3% from May 2; PVC total operating rate was 77.9%, up 1.4% [24]. Styrene Upstream and Related Prices - On May 12, Brent crude oil (July) was at 64.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.6% from May 9; WTI (June) was at 61.95 dollars/barrel, up 1.5% [29]. Styrene - related - Styrene East China spot price was 7530 yuan/ton on May 12, up 5.0% from May 9 [29]. Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows - EPS ordinary material (East China) was at 8250 yuan/ton on May 12, down 1.2% from May 9 [29]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene East China port inventory was 13.40 million tons on May 7, up 10.7% from April 30; styrene East China port inventory was 6.25 million tons, down 15.3% [29]. Polyolefins (PE and PP) Prices and Spreads - On May 12, L2505 closed at 7282 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from May 9; PP2505 closed at 7100 yuan/ton, up 0.34% [32]. Operating Rates and Inventory - PE device operating rate was 84.1% on May 12, down 0.91% from before; PP device operating rate was 79.7%, up 7.2% [32]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - On May 12, MA2505 closed at 2338 yuan/ton, up 2.10% from May 9; the spread between MA2505 and MA2509 was 68 yuan/ton, up 7.94% [35]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory was 30.391% on May 12, up 7.26% from before; upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 75.65%, up 1.64% [35].

品种 国内前日期货 收盘价 （元/吨） 国内基差 （元/吨） 前日LME3月 期收盘价 (美元/吨） LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） （美元/吨） LME库存 （吨） LME库存日 度变化 （吨） 铜 78,590 -30 9,420 23.87 190,750 -1,025 铝 19,945 0 2,383 -5.34 401,525 -2,025 锌 22,725 415 2,617 -27.37 169,850 -475 镍 125,920 -2,730 15,548 -198.42 197,754 84 铅 16,955 -190 1,958 5.95 251,800 -1,625 锡 263,050 -1,130 31,636 15.00 2,790 85 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 数据来源：Wind，申银万国期货研究所 国 内 市 场 基 差 L M E 现 货 升 贴 水 铜 铝 锌 镍 铅 锡 基差 -30 0 415 -2,730 -190 -1,130 -30 0 415 -2,730 -190 -1,130 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 元 ...

消息人士称，打击数字盗版和假货是美越关税谈判的一部分。 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 元/吨，折人民币价格 6520 元/吨，基差收窄 86 元/吨至-4 元/吨。 | | | --- | --- | | 江浙涤丝产销局部放量，平均产销估算在 110-120%。国内一套年 | | | 产 75 万吨聚酯瓶片新装置已于上周末出料，目前负荷仍在提升 | | | 中；另一年产 75 万吨装置于 4 月初停车检修，目前也在重启出料 | | | 中。5.12 华东主港地区 MEG 港口库存约 75.1 万吨附近，环比上 | | | 期减少 3.9 万吨。PX 集中检修，供应较前期明显收紧，下游 PTA | | | 检修还在继续，但聚酯开工负荷未下降，需求持续支撑价格偏强。 | | | PTA 加工差有所修复，自身检修继续，下游聚酯端高开工高库存， | | | 需求持续存在支撑，短期内 PTA 现货价格则跟随成本端偏强震 | | | 荡，后市关注 PTA 装置变动及原油市场波动。五月上半月乙二醇 | | | 外盘到货稀少，国内装置检修与重启交替，国产货增量较为有限。 | | | 供需预期修正下，五月乙二醇去库将 ...