欧盟官员5月7日表示，如与美方关税谈判破裂，欧盟计划对价值近1000亿欧元的美国商品征税，以报复 美国此前实施的关税措施。 目前，欧盟面临美国对钢铁、铝和汽车征收25%的进口关税，以及对几乎所有其他商品征收10%的"基 准关税"。美国此前宣布将对欧盟征收20%所谓"对等关税"，后给予90天暂缓期。（新华社） ...

登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 分析师： 蔡梦苑 | | 关税缓和信号显现,但行业关税仍存变数: | | --- | --- | | | > 美国一季度GDP萎缩，后续走势取决于关税谈判及减税政策进展 | | | ◆ 今年第一季度美国实际国内生产总值(GDP)按年率计算奏缩至-0.3%,主要受到抢进口和政府投资减少的抱累。后续美国经济走势 | | | 取决于关税谈判的进展(商品消费),以及减税政策的支持(私人投资)。 | | 海外宏观 | > 对等关税税率后续有望下调，行业关税仍存变数 | | | ◆ 基于财政收益最大化及后续行业关税实施空间的考量,对等关税存在下调预期。预计最终调整方向或与特朗普竞选大致医配一 | | | 即全球基准税率降至10%,中国维持约60%高位。 | | | ◆ 对华关税政策方面,特朗普表示"对中国达成协议的前景泵现得更加乐观"。然而潜在的行业关税(特别是医药、关键矿产及半 | | | 导体等敏感行业)关税仍存变致,伴随着协议谈判进程,市场波动或将延续。政策不确定性 ...

贵金属产业日报 2025-05-08 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 点，当前利率期货显示今年仍有3次降息空间。在此背景下，美元指数和长端美债收益率或维持相对承压态 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 790.78 | -12.72 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8094 | -158 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 198555 | 10247 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 228462 | -1892 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 107220 | 2768 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 127151 | -2783 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 15648 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 931982 | -8999 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 801.9 ...

二、会后声明指出，委员会将继续关注新公布的数据对美国经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍委员会目标实现的风险，委员会将随时准备好把货币政策立 场调整成适合的情况。 三、鲍威尔在会后发布会中表示，他认为就业市场表现良好，通胀虽高于目标，但仍处于相对低位，并预期2025年一季度收缩的GDP数据未来可能上修；不 过，他认为关税可能导致更高的通胀和更低的增长，从而增加经济的不确定性，同时不排除这种影响更加持久的可能性。鲍威尔表示，目前美联储没有必要 急于降息，同时表示特朗普总统的施压不会影响委员会的职责。 投资启示 美国劳工统计局数据显示，美国3月整体CPI同比下行至2.4%，核心通胀同比下行至2.8%，4月新增非农就业17.7万人，失业率维持在4.2%，显示美国经济和 劳动力市场较为稳健，但美国商务部公布的数据显示，美国2025年一季度实际GDP环比年化下降0.3%，为2022年二季度以来首次收缩。叠加美国与各国的 关税谈判迄今尚无明确的进展，美国经济或仍面临衰退风险，美联储在货币政策上或陷入两难抉择。 美联储议息会议核心要点 美东时间5月7日，美联储5月会议维持政策利率不变，结果出台后，资本市场反应温和：美股三大指数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to the uncertainty in the tariff negotiations between the US and China and the slowdown in the decline of China's electrolytic copper social inventory, copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended that investors short lightly on rallies in the short - term, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,790 yuan, up 190 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 132,768 lots, an increase of 49,254 lots; open interest was 179,103 lots, up 6,478 lots; inventory was 21,541 tons, a decrease of 3,381 tons. The SMW 1 computer copper +12 price was 78,580 yuan, up 390 yuan [2] - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: On May 7, 2025, the Shanghai copper basis was 790 yuan, up 200 yuan from the previous day; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was 220 yuan, up 40 yuan; in North China, it was - 60 yuan, down 30 yuan; in East China, it was 125 yuan, down 20 yuan [2] - **Spread (Near - Month and Far - Month)**: On May 7, 2025, the spread between Shanghai copper near - month and continuous - first was 370 yuan, up 60 yuan; between continuous - first and continuous - second was 380 yuan, up 10 yuan; between continuous - second and continuous - third was 360 yuan, down 20 yuan [2] - **London Copper**: Data on May 6, 2025 showed that the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 0238; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 193,975 tons; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 21.75; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 149.74 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On May 7, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.62, down 0.09 from May 5; the total inventory was 156,623 tons, an increase of 4,007 tons [2] Industry News - **Port Incident**: The Patache port's belt - conveyor terminal was damaged in a collision with a ship. Loading operations stopped two weeks ago, and repairs are expected to take at least 2 months. Collahuasi copper concentrate will be transported by road during the repair period, with no significant impact on shipments [2] - **Chilean Copper Exports**: In April 2025, Chile's copper exports were 160,660 tons, with 29,14 tons to China. Copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,040,756 tons, with 632,551 tons to China. Exports to China of both copper and copper ore dropped to over - one - year lows [2] Company News - **Mine Production Changes**: Antamina copper mine in Peru is gradually resuming production (2024 output: 927,000 metal tons); KGHM's Sierra Corda copper mine in Chile suspended production due to a worker's death (2024 output: 146,000 metal tons); a steel plant of Kazakhmys suspended production after a mine accident [4] - **Project Updates**: ACS - Metalstopes' fluidized copper ore expansion project will be put into production in Q1 2020, with an initial annual output of 26,000 tons; Freeport McMoRan in Indonesia was approved to export 1.27 million tons of copper concentrate in 6 months but will face higher export taxes; Jiangxi Copper's Ecuadorian mine's second - phase 160,000 - ton capacity may be put into production in H2 2025; Julong Copper Mine's second - phase 200,000 - ton/day expansion project may be completed by the end of 2025 [4] - **Smelter News**: Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile suspended production until May due to a furnace problem; Xanor Kakula copper smelter in Congo may be completed and put into production in June 2025, with an annual output of 500,000 tons of anode copper; Yimen Copper's new anode copper production increased from 100,000 to 150,000 tons on April 12; Jiangxi Copper's Jiangyuan second - phase 150,000 - ton cathode copper project started in Guixi; Jinchuan Group's second - phase 200,000 - ton intelligent circuit copper project produced the first batch of high - purity cathode copper in March [4] Downstream Market - **Copper Rod**: New orders and long - order executions of refined copper rod enterprises decreased, with production based on existing orders. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods increased, while that of recycled copper rods decreased. Raw material and finished - product inventories of both types of enterprises increased [4] - **Other Downstream Industries**: The capacity utilization rate of steel enterprises in China may increase in May. For copper - related downstream industries, the capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase, while that of copper wave - wrapped wire, copper plate - strip, steel pipe, and brass rod may decrease [4] Trading Strategy - Short lightly on rallies in the short - term, paying attention to support and resistance levels: Shanghai copper at 70,000/73,000 - 75,000 and 78,500 - 80,000; London copper at 8,700 - 8,900 and 9,600 - 9,800; US copper at 4.3 - 4.5 and 4.86/5.0 - 5.2 [4]

Market Performance - Treasury futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.62%, the 10-year main contract down 0.19%, the 5-year main contract down 0.08%, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% [1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond "24附息国债11" rose by 1.70 basis points to 1.6380%, while the yield on the 3-year government bond "25附息国债05" fell by 1.25 basis points to 1.4750% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 195.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.50%, with a total bid amount of 195.5 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 530.8 billion yuan in reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 335.3 billion yuan [2] - Overnight and 7-day pledged repo rates for deposit institutions both fell by over 4 basis points [2] Policy Measures - The central bank announced three categories of ten policies, including a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [3] - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, which also led to a 10 basis point decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3] - Structural policies include increasing the re-lending for technological innovation and technical transformation to 800 billion yuan and establishing a 500 billion yuan re-lending for consumption recovery and elderly care [3] Operational Recommendations - The recent announcement of reserve requirement and interest rate cuts aligns with expectations, suggesting that while bond supply may increase in May, the central bank's measures could stabilize the funding environment [4] - The short-term impact of the interest rate cut is expected to be limited, as long-term bond yields have already adjusted to reflect previous rate cut expectations [4] - The focus for the bond market will remain on funding conditions, fundamentals, and trade negotiations, with a recommendation to consider long positions after corrections [4]

中金公司指出，美联储短期内不会降息，尤其不会先发制人降息。 北京时间5月8日凌晨，美联储发布了最新的利率决议，美联储将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，符 合市场预期。美联储在声明中表示，尽管净出口的波动影响了数据，最近的指标表明，美国经济活动继 续稳步扩张。早间，多家机构发布最新解读： 中金公司：美联储短期内不会降息，尤其不会先发制人降息 中金公司指出，美联储5月会议按兵不动，符合市场预期。货币政策声明指出失业率上升与通胀走高的 风险均已加剧，暗示政策环境面临"滞胀"风险，但由于当前经济数据仍然稳健，美联储也不急于行动。 我们认为，美联储短期内不会降息，尤其不会先发制人降息，未来的降息路径将取决于关税谈判：若谈 判未取得实质性进展、关税居高不下，美联储可能被迫开启"衰退式"降息，年底前或降息100个基点； 但若谈判达成有效成果、关税降低，美联储或推迟至12月降息，降息幅度也将更加温和。 华泰证券：美联储后续降息决策取决于关税谈判结果以及实际经济数据，特别是就业数据 华泰证券指出，5月会议显示美联储维持此前的观望立场，不急于降息，计划等待形势明朗后再行动， 且降息决策要取决于失业率和通胀之间的权衡。往 ...

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 5 月 7 日 PVC 冲高回落。昨日开始受中美和谈等消息影响，市场一度宏 观偏暖迹象，工业品冲高。国内出台货币政策等，力度一般，但市场更 多交易对经济的担忧，夜盘美联储偏鹰。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下 持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大 （12%左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，二季度投产压力较大，且烧碱利 润高开工持续维持高位，库存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产 能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价 换量持稳状态，内需季节性恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面驱动有限， 宏观主导。目前海外局势动荡，全球经济增速放缓，国内政策预期不强， PVC 估值偏低，盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策 力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期，或有一定 支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化，盘面进一步承压。 ◆ 烧碱： 5 月 7 日烧碱主力 SH09 合约收 2513 元/吨（+15），山东市场主流价 800 元/吨（0），折百 2500 元/吨（0），液氯山东-100 元/吨（0）。4 ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 8 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 | | 表1：国债期货5月7日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2506 | 120.890 | 120.680 | 120.140 | 120.120 | -0.750 | -0.62 | 115667 | 93433 | -8736 | ...