Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - Gold prices may temporarily maintain a volatile pattern due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies and inflation expectations [9] - Silver prices show a slightly stronger trend than gold under the current risk sentiment, and the gold-silver ratio may decline in the near future, but a neutral attitude is still recommended for the absolute price of silver [9] Market News and Important Data - On May 13, 2025, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.4%. The core CPI rose 2.8% year-on-year, still well above the Fed's 2% long-term target [2] - Trump pressured Powell to cut interest rates after the CPI report, saying the stock market would soar [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US will bring back pharmaceutical, semiconductor and other strategic industries, so the short-term agreement between China and the US in Geneva does not mean the end of future trade disputes [2] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 13, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 760.80 yuan/gram and closed at 767.68 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 625,489 lots, and the open interest was 214,581 lots [3] - On May 13, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 8,130 yuan/kg and closed at 8,219 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 445,790 lots, and the open interest was 188,738 lots [3] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 13, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.45%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.47%, unchanged from the previous trading day [4] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract on May 13, 2025, the long positions increased by 883 lots compared with the previous day, while the short positions decreased by 37 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 833,063 lots, up 0.28% from the previous trading day [5] - On the Ag2502 contract on May 13, 2025, the long positions increased by 188 lots, and the short positions increased by 254 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,182,017 lots, down 3.91% from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - On May 13, 2025, the gold ETF position was 736.51 tons, down 2.58 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 13,999.75 tons, down 29.70 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 13, 2025, the price difference between the Shanghai Gold main contract and Au(T+d) was 0.81 yuan/gram, down 3.05 yuan/gram from the previous trading day. The price difference between the Shanghai Silver main contract and Ag(T+d) was 38 yuan/kg, down 10 yuan/kg from the previous trading day [7] - On May 13, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 19.29 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -332.50 yuan/kg [7] - On May 13, 2025, the price ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contracts was about 93.40, down 0.44% from the previous trading day. The price ratio of the foreign market was 98.85, down 2.37% from the previous trading day [7] Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d Market Monitoring - On May 13, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 76,248 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 522,642 kg, up 9.34% from the previous trading day [8] - On May 13, 2025, the delivery volume of gold was 17,048 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 24,300 kg [8]

报 告 正 文 通胀预期进一步抬升 。4月密歇根消费者1年通胀预期升至6.5%，较上月上行1.5个百分点，创2023年11月以来 新高，而5年通胀预期进一步升至4.4%。根据密歇根大学调查，由于特朗普关税政策具有高度不确定性，引发 消费者对未来物价水平的担忧，通胀预期指标飙升。 降息时点或有推迟 。通胀数据公布后，美股三大指数上涨，美债收益率下降，而美元指数略有下降。数 据公布前，中美对等关税政策取得进展，对等关税被大幅下调。但在美国与英国和中国的谈判中，10%的 普适对等关税未被取消，或意味着10%的美国全面进口关税仍将加征，关税仍将推高美国企业进口成本， 使得通胀上行，并拖累经济表现。4月通胀继续降温， 一方面 ，住房通胀回落正在逐渐反映在CPI中，油 价短期内或保持低位震荡，核心服务和能源项通胀或仍趋于回落。 另一方面 ，关税尚未完全显现在通胀 中，一季度企业抢进口、囤库存，关税传导或仍需一定时间。 我们认为，在高利率限制下，经济仍在降 温，通胀趋于下降。随着关税导致的美国经济恶化逐步显现，美联储年内仍将降息，但重启降息时点或有 所推迟 。 通胀降温趋势未改 。4月CPI同比增速略有回落至2.3%，为2 ...

证券研究报告 2025年05月13日 行业报告： 行业深度研究 24&25Q1总结：资源端金&铜领涨，材料端盈利大幅提升 作者： 分析师 刘奕町 SAC执业证书编号：S1110523050001 分析师 曾先毅 SAC执业证书编号：S1110524060002 分析师 胡十尹 SAC执业证书编号：S1110525010002 联系人 吴亚宁 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） • 24-25Q1有色金属板块整体情况：资源端金&铜领涨，材料端盈利大幅提升。指数表现方面，24年全年有色板块涨幅为3.2%，低于沪深300指数，板块Q1大幅上 涨，之后主要由于宏观预期扰动大幅回落。25Q1有色板块涨幅为12%，位列申万一级行业之首，主要系有色板块主要品种价格表现强势，一方面特朗普关税政策 推升通胀预期，金价中枢持续抬升，另一方面3月是有色金属需求旺季，铜铝持续去库价格强势，高价格中枢下相关企业业绩释放预期增强。 • 贵金属：金价上涨带动企业盈利同比大增。 2024年黄金行业实现营业总收入2915.88亿元，同比+2.83%。 25Q1实现营收838 ...

金融压力或是美联储"转鸽"的主要矛盾 20250513 摘要 • 当前美国经济可能处于滞胀状态，即将公布的 CPI 数据和二季度数据可能 偏向通胀，金融压力不容忽视，或影响美联储决策。 • 金融压力指数综合衡量融资条件、违约风险和风险偏好，通过短端利率传 导至长端利率影响经济，是美联储关注的重要指标。 • 金融市场动荡会恶化居民消费意愿，金融条件收紧可能影响制造业投资。 关税导致的通胀上行压力通常是暂时性的，美联储或更关注经济下行风险。 • 过去十年，中国经济放缓、美联储超预期加息、新冠疫情冲击和美国非失 业率上升等事件均导致金融压力提升，迫使美联储转向鸽派。 • 2015-2016 年，全球经济不确定性及金融市场动荡对美国经济构成下行 风险，促使美联储下修加息空间，金融压力上升成为转鸽信号。 • 2018 年鹰派加息导致美股回撤，2020 年初疫情爆发，2021 年失业率突 升，美联储均采取宽松政策应对，但 2022 年高通胀时期则选择加息。 • 预计美联储可能在 7 月、10 月和 12 月降息，7 月降息概率较高。股票市 场压力或实体利差问题可能成为货币宽松开启的时间点，或在 3 月份。 Q&A 美联储 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年5月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：中美会谈进展超预期，风险偏好明显加强，金价明显下挫；美国三大股 指大幅收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美元指数涨1.39%报101.81，离岸人民币 大幅升值报7.1996；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨9.05个基点报 4.4729%；COMEX黄金期货跌3.06%报3241.80美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货772.28，现货766.8，基差-648，现货贴水期货；偏空 6、预期：今日关注美国4月CPI、欧元区经济景气指数、日央行会议摘要、英央行行 长讲话、中国信贷数据或公布。中美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced risk aversion following the U.S.-China trade agreement, which has led to a more balanced market dynamic for gold [3][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On May 13, gold prices in the Asian market opened at $3,239.25 per ounce for spot London gold and $3,240.70 per ounce for New York futures, reflecting a drop of 2.69% and 2.76% respectively from the previous day [1]. - Major Chinese gold retailers, such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao, have reduced the price of gold jewelry to below 1,000 yuan per gram, with significant decreases of 16 yuan and 13 yuan per gram respectively over two days [1][2]. Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. has committed to canceling 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and suspending 24% of the remaining tariffs for 90 days, while China has reciprocated by canceling 91% of its counter-tariffs [4]. - This trade agreement is expected to alleviate pressure on both countries' export sectors and reduce uncertainty for Chinese manufacturing, positively impacting investor sentiment [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The U.S. dollar has seen its largest increase since the November 2024 presidential election, and U.S. Treasury yields have risen, which poses a challenge for gold prices as it increases the cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve to December, while Citibank has also delayed its prediction from June to July [5][6]. Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases - As of April, China's gold reserves increased to 73.77 million ounces, marking a continuous six-month increase, with a total rise of nearly 1 million ounces (approximately 28 tons) over this period [7]. - Global central banks purchased 244 tons of gold in the first quarter, aligning with the average quarterly purchase levels over the past three years, indicating sustained demand for gold as a reserve asset [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook for Gold - The low proportion of gold in China's foreign exchange reserves (5.5% as of December 2024) compared to the global average of around 15% suggests a continued trend of increasing gold purchases by the People's Bank of China [8]. - The ongoing geopolitical instability and the need to optimize reserve structures are driving central banks to enhance their gold holdings, which is expected to support gold prices in the long term [7][8].

日本央行副行长内田真一近日明确表示，尽管面临美国关税政策带来的经济不确定性，日本央行仍认为 薪资和物价将继续上涨。这一表态显示了日本央行应对通胀压力的决心，同时也为全球投资者释放了重 要信号。 内田真一认为，虽然短期内通胀率可能停滞，但紧张的就业市场将推动工资继续上涨。企业很可能通过 提高价格来转嫁不断攀升的劳动力和运输成本。日本劳动力市场持续紧张，带动工资水平创下三十多年 来最大增幅，这将对消费产生积极影响。 据日本总务省数据显示，3月份日本国内消费价格指数同比上涨3.6%，连续36个月保持在央行2%目标之 上。核心CPI同比上涨3.2%，已连续43个月高于政策目标。这些数据表明日本已实质摆脱长期通缩状 态，为央行加息政策提供了坚实支撑。 日本央行4月货币政策会议纪要也显示，尽管委员们普遍认为美国关税政策会对经济造成不利影响，但 大多数委员认为这不足以破坏实现2%通胀目标的路径。会议上有委员表示，"央行需要观望直到美国关 税政策进展明确"，也有委员认为"可进入暂停加息阶段，但不应过于悲观"。 值得注意的是，日本央行行长植田和男此前多次强调，如果经济增长与通胀指标符合预期，将可能进一 步加息。据央行内部估算， ...

Core Viewpoint - The progress in US-China trade negotiations has led to a potential decline in the likelihood of a "stagflation" scenario in the US economy, resulting in a downward adjustment of market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2025 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025 has decreased from 75 basis points to 55 basis points, with the timing of the cut pushed from June to September [1] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the next rate cut from July to December, reflecting changes in the financial market environment [1] Inflation and Economic Growth - The inflationary effects from tariffs remain, with inflation expectations in the market not cooling down, complicating the Federal Reserve's ability to maintain a loose monetary policy [5] - The inflation rate is still above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, with non-housing market service inflation at 3.4% in March, indicating upward pressure on inflation [5] - The latest tariff policies are expected to reduce US economic growth by 1-1.5 percentage points and may push core inflation up by 1-1.5 percentage points [5] Economic Downside Risks - Despite progress in trade negotiations, the risk of a downturn in the US economy persists, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 35% probability of recession in the next 12 months [7] - The effective tariff levels in the US remain significantly higher than in previous decades, which could negatively impact economic growth [7] - The average effective tariff rate in the US is currently at 17.8%, the highest level since 1934, indicating ongoing economic risks [7] Global Economic Context - The recent rebound of the US dollar index following trade negotiation progress does not change the underlying issues related to US dollar credibility and the trend of "de-dollarization" in global asset allocation [8] - A reduction in the US current account deficit could lead to decreased demand, impacting capital inflows into US assets and potentially putting long-term pressure on the dollar [8]

新华财经北京5月13日电本周伊始国际金价大幅回撤。周一，伦敦现货黄金单日跌超2.6%，整体较自4 月22日触及的3500美元／盎司历史高点已经回调了约7.5%。 经贸会谈最新进展和地缘风险降温是短期内黄金市场面临的主要利空。一方面，5月11日美伊第四轮谈 判伊方表示"艰难但有益"，印巴方面10日达成停火协议后，地缘层面风险整体降温。另一方面，继5月8 日美国宣布与英国达成一项新的贸易协议后，中美经贸高层会谈5月10日至11日在瑞士日内瓦举行。本 次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方 相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 此外，美国通胀预期叠加"关税战"风险缓和使得市场对美联储降息延迟押注增加，对现货黄金形成压 制。 不过，从中长期来看，美元信用问题和央行储备多元化支持下的购金需求，仍将支撑黄金价格保持上行 逻辑。首先，美国政府债务上限危机问题持续挑战美元信用权威性，也为黄金提供了上行动力；其次， 去美元化背景下全球央行购金热度不减。据国际货币基金组织（IMF），2025年一季度全球央行累计净 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-13 中美谈判取得实质性进展,市场情绪回暖 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，央行推出三大类共十项货币政 策措施，包括降准0.5个百分点，降低政策利率0.1个百分点，创设新的政策工具等；金融监管总局将推出八项增量 政策，涉房地产金融、险资入市、稳外贸等；证监会表示将"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，稳步推进市场对外开放。 值得注意的事，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口 当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同），对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲 击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月9日—12日何立峰副总理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸 会谈取得实质进展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商机制，推动市场情绪显著回暖，A股主要股指高开高走 且逾4100股上涨；亚太股市普遍收涨，短期需持续关注中美谈判落地进展，重点关注原油，集运指数，黄金等对 该事件敏感的商品。 关注全球贸易政策博弈。5月8日，英国和美国宣布已经 ...