1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply - side pressure is small as the import of Canadian rapeseed is restricted in the fourth quarter, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal futures continued to fluctuate and close higher, and short - term observation is recommended. Attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode in the fourth quarter, which supports its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a rigid level. Affected by the decline of palm oil, the rapeseed oil price has been in a weak adjustment recently, and short - term observation is recommended. Attention should be paid to the China - Canada trade policy [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9529 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 2401 yuan/ton (up 28 yuan). The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 640.6 Canadian dollars/ton (up 3.4 Canadian dollars), and that of the active rapeseed contract is 5270 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of rapeseed oil is 319 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 66 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan) [2]. - Main contract positions: The main contract position of rapeseed oil is 226014 lots (down 7051 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is 350537 lots (down 1311 lots) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long position of rapeseed oil is 4403 lots (up 921 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is - 101718 lots (up 11227 lots) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: The warehouse receipt quantity of rapeseed oil is 7540 pieces (unchanged), and that of rapeseed meal is 3915 pieces (unchanged) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2480 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan). The average price of rapeseed oil is 9917.5 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), and the import cost price of imported rapeseed is 7891.02 yuan/ton (up 28.82 yuan). The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 275 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and that of the main rapeseed meal contract is 79 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8390 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2970 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Price differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1460 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1050 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 490 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan) [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 90.96 million tons (up 1.38 million tons), and the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons (up 1068 thousand tons) [2]. - Import quantities: The total import quantity of rapeseed in the current month is 11.53 million tons (down 13.13 million tons), the import quantity of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 16 million tons (up 2 million tons), and the import quantity of rapeseed meal in the current month is 15.77 million tons (down 5.57 million tons) [2]. - Pressing profit and开机率: The import rapeseed disk pressing profit is 589 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the weekly开机率 of imported rapeseed is 2.93% (down 0.27%) [2]. - Inventories: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 2 million tons (down 1 million tons) [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventories: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 4.2 million tons (down 1 million tons), the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0.71 million tons (down 0.07 million tons), the rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 49.4 million tons (down 0.5 million tons), the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region is 26.75 million tons (down 0.45 million tons), the rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 2.7 million tons (down 0.2 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 21.3 million tons (down 0.8 million tons) [2]. -提货量: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 0.35 million tons (down 1.28 million tons), and the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal is 0.22 million tons (down 0.75 million tons) [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The current - month production of feed is 3128.7 million tons (up 201.5 million tons), and the current - month production of edible vegetable oil is 495 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The current - month social consumer goods retail total of catering revenue is 4508.6 billion yuan (up 12.9 billion yuan) [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 19.81% (down 0.69%), the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 19.67% (down 0.97%), the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.56% (up 2.26%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.55% (up 2.26%) [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 25.44% (up 2.21%), the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 25.56% (up 0.55%), the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.21% (down 0.37%), and the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.69% (down 0.03%) [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On October 29 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures rose, and trading volume jumped, supported by the hope that the oversupply of North American vegetable oil supply would start to improve. The January rapeseed contract closed up 2.50 Canadian dollars at 641.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - A survey showed that as of last Sunday, the US soybean harvest rate reached 84%. As the US soybean harvest advanced, the supply - side pressure continued to constrain its market price. After the China - US presidential meeting on October 30, the specific trade agreement was still unclear, and the market's concern about the US soybean demand prospects resurfaced, and the US soybean futures price also significantly declined from its high [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed开机率 and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from My Agricultural Network on Monday, the development of China - Canada and China - US trade relations, and the initial ruling of the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market lacks short - term guidance and remains volatile [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a range - bound oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bullish, the price trend on the disk is neutral, the main positions show a bullish signal, and the short - term market is expected to return to an oscillatory pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply tightening and demand weakening, which suppresses the market. Canada's rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but trade issues may reduce short - term exports to China. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, with a 75.8% import deposit. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and import deposit on Canadian rapeseed, and low inventory pressure on oil mills. Bearish factors are the approaching off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result. The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From October 20th to 28th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. Rapeseed meal futures prices bottomed out and rebounded, while spot prices were relatively stable, with a small - amplitude fluctuation in the spot premium. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory was flat week - on - week. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remained at a low level. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][22]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal increased, and capital flowed in [9].

Group 1 - Domestic futures market for meal products saw a collective rise, with rapeseed meal futures prices experiencing a rapid increase, peaking at 2399 yuan/ton, and closing at 2396 yuan/ton, up 2.39% [1] - Import prices for rapeseed at domestic ports showed a slight decrease, with Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price at 509 USD/ton, down 1 USD/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The Canadian rapeseed futures market on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw a mild increase, with the benchmark contract rising by 0.24%, influenced by expectations of a potential trade agreement between China and the U.S. and positive developments in China-Canada trade relations [2] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures indicated that with limited raw material arrivals in the future, inventories will remain seasonally low, and the market will primarily follow soybean meal trends, with a focus on subsequent warehouse receipt changes [2] - Dayue Futures noted that rapeseed meal is experiencing a rebound due to technical adjustments and the influence of soybean meal, while the market awaits the final ruling on anti-dumping measures for Canadian rapeseed imports [3] - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, influenced by the ongoing negotiations between China and Canada, with a lack of clear direction affecting price stability [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2320 - 2380. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the short - term trend is oscillatory [9]. - The market is mainly focused on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal fluctuates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and technical oscillations. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season is over, but low inventory supports the price. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the short - term trend is oscillatory [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with reduced production in Ukraine and increased production in Russia offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2480, and the basis is 145, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.2 tons, which is bullish [9]. - **Price Trends**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Trading Data**: From October 17th to 27th, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2959 - 3003, and the trading volume between 6.51 - 14.86 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was between 2440 - 2480, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 494 - 523 [13]. 3.5 Position Data - The main players have shifted from short to long positions, and capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - Rapeseed meal warehouse receipts have been decreasing. For example, on October 27th, there were 4050 receipts, a decrease of 210 from the previous day [16].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9757 | -77 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2339 | 32 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 389 260299 | 3 菜粕月间价差(1-5)(日,元/吨) -2728 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 27 364445 | 19 -13022 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 7132 | -1570 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -103418 | 3684 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 7540 | 0 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 4702 | 0 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) | 626.7 | -2.5 期货收盘价(活跃合约):油菜籽(日,元/吨) | 5341 | -93 | | 现货市场 | 现 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2300 - 2360. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market lacks short - term guidance and maintains a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2300 - 2360 range oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is 133, showing a premium over futures, which is bullish; the inventory is 1.75 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions are decreasing and funds are flowing in, which is bearish. Due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it has returned to a volatile pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, with a 75.8% import deposit imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other, global geopolitical conflicts may still support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 14th to 22nd, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2959 - 2992, and the trading volume was between 6.51 - 18.62 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2440 - 2500, and the trading volume was 0. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was between 2440 - 2500. The rapeseed meal futures prices of the 2601 and 2605 contracts fluctuated. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9089 on October 13th to 4702 on October 22nd. Rapeseed meal futures declined, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a small - fluctuating premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillated at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed continued to decline, and the weekly rapeseed meal inventory was flat. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume remained low. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][16]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the report

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the overall trend of rapeseed meal remains bearish. The rapeseed oil market will continue to maintain a de - stocking mode, and its price is supported, but the market is also intertwined with long and short factors. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9834 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2307 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; that of ICE rapeseed is 629.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.8 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed is 5434 yuan/ton, up 103 yuan [2] - Spreads and positions: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil is 386 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 8 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil are 8702 lots, down 1206 lots; those of rapeseed meal are - 107102 lots, down 12852 lots [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 7540, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 4702, down 3000 [2] Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10020 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2390 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10113.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed is 7495.07 yuan/ton, up 12.69 yuan [2] - Basis and price differences: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 186 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is 83 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 920 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons [2] - Imports and profits: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 11.53 tons, down 13.13 tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 766 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [2] Industry Situation - Inventory and开机率: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 3 tons, down 2 tons. The weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed is 3.2%, down 0.53%. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas is 5.2 tons, down 0.8 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 0.78 tons, down 0.37 tons [2] - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 14 tons, up 1 ton; that of rapeseed meal is 18.31 tons, down 8.72 tons [2] Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2927.2 tons, up 99.9 tons; that of edible vegetable oil is 450.6 tons, up 30 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures slightly rose on October 21, with the most actively traded January contract up 0.10 Canadian dollars to 630.10 Canadian dollars per ton. The US Midwest soybean harvest is progressing actively, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restricts its price. The US government shutdown leads to a lack of data and market caution [2] Rapeseed Meal View Summary - The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has no substantial progress, and the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is restricted. However, the high - yield of Canadian rapeseed is basically realized, and the demand for rapeseed meal is weak due to the decline of aquaculture demand and the abundant supply of soybeans [2] Rapeseed Oil View Summary - The preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping policy for Canadian rapeseed is out, and the supply of imported rapeseed will be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter. Rapeseed oil will continue to be in a de - stocking mode, but the abundant supply of soybean oil restricts its demand [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market lacks clear guidance and follows the soybean meal market in a volatile pattern. It is currently in a neutral state, with short - term fluctuations influenced by factors such as the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, changes in China - Canada trade relations, and the shift in the demand season [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to assume a volatile and slightly bullish trend. For the RM2601 contract, it is expected to fluctuate around 2400, and short - term trading or a wait - and - see approach is recommended. The option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, leading to a decrease in demand and putting downward pressure on the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but China - Canada trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has offset the impact of reduced Ukrainian rapeseed production by increased Russian production, and geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [11]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [19]. - Oil mill processing and inventory: The amount of rapeseed processed by oil mills remained low, rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory remained flat week - on - week [21][23]. - Rapeseed meal trading: Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downward, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a slight increase in the spot premium [33]. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal increased, and funds flowed in, indicating a bearish sentiment [8]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has returned to a volatile pattern after the short - term positive factors were exhausted. Affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, it is in a slightly bearish volatile pattern. The KDJ indicator is oscillating at a low level, and the MACD is declining, but the green energy has not expanded. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound, and the future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and the performance of soybean meal [42]. 3.7 Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: The harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic processing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45]. - Second important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the inventory of rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [45]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2340 - 2400. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market lacks short - term guidance and maintains an oscillating pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Sino - Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 oscillates between 2340 and 2400. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the inventory shows a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions increase with capital inflow, which is bearish. Due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of Sino - Canadian tariff reduction, it returns to an oscillating pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, with decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term export and domestic supply expectations. The preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports in China is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final ruling is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production increases this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future of global geopolitical conflicts may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the addition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed imports in China, and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors are that domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season and the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 9th to 17th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal futures and spot prices, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts are presented. Rapeseed meal futures oscillate downward, while the spot is relatively stable, with a small fluctuation in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remains stable in October, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remains flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains low. Aquatic fish prices rise slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [13][15][16] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 14 to close at 1021 cents per bushel, a 1.39% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 54 to 2868 yuan per ton, a 1.85% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 20 to 2900 yuan per ton, a 0.68% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 85 to 2306 yuan per ton, a 3.55% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 40 to 2450 yuan per ton, a 1.61% decrease [4]. - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher, mainly due to the unexpectedly high crushing data released by NOPA, which boosted the price through demand. However, data on exports and harvest progress remained suspended. Domestic soybean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and weakened, mainly because domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were at a high level compared to the same period, with sufficient supply. The expected easing of China - Canada trade relations and bearish sentiment exerted pressure. Additionally, the sowing in Brazil was progressing smoothly, the early - stage crops were growing well, and Argentina was about to start sowing with good soil moisture [4]. - The initial sowing work in Brazil was going smoothly. Precipitation in the central - western producing areas (such as Mato Grosso) was low in late October, which required continuous attention. China - U.S. economic and trade negotiations were about to take place in Malaysia, and trade sentiment cooled. Attention was paid to the high - level meeting during the APEC at the end of the month. The Canadian Foreign Minister visited China, and the China - Canada trade relations eased. The import of Canadian rapeseed might resume, and the market sentiment was bearish. Domestic soybean inventories were high, the oil mill operating rate rebounded, and the supply of soybean meal was sufficient. It was expected that the continuous soybean meal would fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract rose 14 cents per bushel to 1021 cents per bushel, a 1.39% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose 2 dollars per ton to 481 dollars per ton, a 0.42% increase; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans fell 2 dollars per ton to 454 dollars per ton, a 0.44% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market fell 50.85 yuan per ton to - 177.89 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 54 yuan per ton to 2868 yuan per ton, a 1.85% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 85 yuan per ton to 2306 yuan per ton, a 3.55% decrease; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference rose 31 yuan per ton to 562 yuan per ton; the spot price in East China fell 30 yuan per ton to 2890 yuan per ton, a 1.03% decrease; the spot price in South China fell 20 yuan per ton to 2900 yuan per ton, a 0.68% decrease; the spot - futures price difference in South China rose 34 yuan per ton to 32 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher due to the unexpectedly high NOPA crushing data, but export and harvest progress data were suspended. Domestic soybean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and weakened because of sufficient supply, expected easing of China - Canada trade relations, and smooth sowing in Brazil [7]. - The U.S. government shutdown continued, and USDA reports were suspended. The current harvest progress was estimated to be 70% - 80%. China had not purchased U.S. soybeans, and export demand was weak. The market expected a slight decrease in the October report's yield per acre to 53.2 bushels per acre [8]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit was 2.72 dollars per bushel; the 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 284.83 dollars per short - ton; the truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 50.84 cents per pound; the average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 9.90 dollars per bushel [8]. - NOPA's monthly report showed that member companies crushed 197.863 million bushels of soybeans in September, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. As of September 30, the member companies' soybean oil inventory dropped to a nine - month low of 1.243 billion pounds, a 0.2% decrease from the end of August but a 16.6% increase from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of October 11, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 11.1%. Conab estimated that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 177.6386 million tons, a 3.6% increase year - on - year, and the export volume would increase to 112.11 million tons. As of the week of October 10, 2025, domestic major oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons, and national port soybean inventory was 10.092 million tons [10]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 147,300 tons, the average daily pick - up volume was 187,420 tons, the major oil mills' crushing volume was 2.1662 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 7.93 days [11]. Industry News - As of October 10, the soybean planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, had reached 21.22% of the expected total planting area [12]. - As of the week of October 5, Canada's rapeseed export volume decreased 8.7% to 80,500 tons. From August 1 to October 5, 2025, Canada's rapeseed export volume was 796,100 tons, a 59.2% decrease from the same period last year. As of October 5, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.274 million tons [12]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate had reached 14%, the third - fastest in the same period [12]. - Brazil exported 2,166,031.56 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of October, with an average daily export volume of 270,753.94 tons, a 26% increase from the average daily export volume in October last year [13]. - Canada exported 477,254 tons of rapeseed, 281,360 tons of rapeseed oil, and 446,993 tons of rapeseed meal in August 2025 [13]. - From January to July this year, the U.S. exported only 5.9 million tons of soybeans to China. Since May, China has stopped buying U.S. soybeans. A U.S. market research company predicted that if China did not return to the U.S. market by mid - November, the U.S. might lose 14 - 16 million tons of soybean orders to China [13]. - Last week, soybean planting in Brazil slowed down due to insufficient rainfall. Safras & Mercado estimated the national planting rate to be about 11.2%. In Paraná, the planting rate was about 38%, and in Mato Grosso, about 20% of the area had been planted [14]. - As of the week of October 14, about 39% of the U.S. soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week [14]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area was expected to be 18 million hectares, and the production was expected to be 51.1 million tons. The estimated 2025/26 planting area was 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [15].