1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is affected by the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the results of China - Canada trade relations. It is in a state of shock and decline. In the short - term, it will maintain a shock pattern due to the off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand and the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations [8]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and the market is also affected by the soybean meal market [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the report 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the demand side is gradually decreasing, suppressing the market expectation. The Canadian rapeseed harvest season has arrived, but due to China - Canada trade issues, short - term exports are expected to decrease [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The future of China - Canada trade relations is uncertain, and the policy of additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed imports is to be determined [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada, where the output is higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, which still supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and additional import deposit on Canadian rapeseed; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [11]. - Bearish factors: Domestic aquaculture demand has entered the seasonal off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and there is a possibility of reconciliation [11]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: In December, the arrival of imported rapeseed increased slightly, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [19]. - Oil mill situation: The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remained at zero, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories were at low levels [21][23]. - Rapeseed meal transaction: Not provided in the report - Aquaculture situation: Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable. The production of Chinese aquatic products, fish, shellfish, and shrimp and crabs is mentioned, and the OECD's forecast of China's fish production and imports is also provided [25][27][29][31]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions increased, and funds flowed in, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - Fundamental analysis: Rapeseed meal is in a state of shock and decline, affected by soybean meal and technical shock adjustment. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. In the short - term, it will maintain a shock pattern due to the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 2520, and the basis is 182, showing a premium over the futures, which is bullish [8]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons, the same as last week, and a 100% decrease compared with the same period last year, which is bullish [8]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upward, showing a neutral trend [8]. - Main position: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed in, showing a bearish trend [8]. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal is affected by the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations, showing a weak shock. In the short - term, it will maintain a shock pattern, and the follow - up development should be concerned [8]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategies - Futures: In the short - term, it will return to the range shock. The RM2605 contract will fluctuate between 2200 and 2400 in the short - term. It is recommended to trade in the range or wait and see [13]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - Affected by the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, rapeseed meal is in a state of shock and decline. The KDJ indicator crosses at a high position, and the MACD is rising from a low position. In the short - term, it is in a technical shock adjustment stage, and the future trend depends on the rapeseed import policy and the soybean meal market [42]. 3.9 Next Week's Concerns - Most important: The growth and harvest weather conditions in South American soybean producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45]. - Second important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, domestic oil mill rapeseed meal inventory and downstream procurement [45]. - Less important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main contract of soybean oil rose this week. The auction of imported soybeans is expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil. Although the current supply of soybean oil in China has tightened, the overall supply remains abundant. The continued upward drive of soybean oil is expected to be insufficient, and long - position holders are advised to exit and wait and see. The support level of the main 05 contract is 7600 - 7650 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8030 - 8050 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil fluctuated widely this week. The news of the Canadian Prime Minister's upcoming visit to China has put pressure on the rapeseed oil market. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still in a destocking state. In the short term, rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. In the long - term, the expected increase in Australian rapeseed supply and the global rapeseed harvest pattern will still pose significant pressure on prices. One - sided short - selling at high prices can be considered. The 05 contract has a pressure range of 9300 - 9350 yuan/ton and a support level of 8650 - 8700 yuan/ton [3]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract of palm oil strengthened with fluctuations this week. The approach of India's traditional New Year stocking and the significant improvement in January's Malaysian palm oil export data have increased market expectations for export demand recovery. The Indonesian president's statement has raised concerns about future supply tightening. The strong biodiesel policy and supply tightening expectations have jointly supported palm oil prices. However, the inventory accumulation expectation for Malaysian palm oil in December is still high. The palm oil market has short - term bearish and long - term bullish prospects. Cautious investors are advised to wait for the release of the MPOB report before considering long - position entry at low prices. The main contract has a support level of 8300 - 8350 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 8700 - 8750 yuan/ton [3]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No. 2**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 rose and then fell this week. The auction of imported soybeans is expected to ensure sufficient supply. The 05 contracts of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 are expected to be sold short on rebounds [4][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell this week. The news of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China has put pressure on the domestic rapeseed market. The inventory is continuously decreasing, but the fundamental outlook is still bearish. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and short - selling at high prices can be considered [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The main contract of soybean No. 1 rose and then fell this week. The market logic has not changed significantly. The valuation is not low, and the continued upward drive is not strong. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week. The supply pressure is limited, and the export data of US corn is good. The wheat auction and China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn sales have had a certain impact on the domestic market, but the overall short - term pressure is not significant. It is recommended to buy on dips. For corn 2603, the support range is 2160 - 2170, and the pressure range is 2330 - 2350. For corn starch 03, the support range is 2430 - 2440, and the pressure range is 2630 - 2650. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended for option operations [5]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs rebounded with fluctuations over the weekend. The terminal consumption has improved month - on - month. The overall commodity market has stopped falling and rebounded in January, and the sentiment in the agricultural product sector has warmed up. Cautious investors can hold short - near - month and long - far - month reverse spreads, while aggressive investors can buy the 2607 contract when the price falls below the breeding cost and sell deep out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 15,000 to reduce the bottom - fishing cost [6]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs rose with fluctuations over the weekend. The egg price has rebounded after a seasonal decline since the fourth quarter. The terminal consumption is expected to increase month - on - month in January. The current egg price is relatively low, and the egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high. Aggressive investors can buy the 2605 contract on dips, and speculative short - selling should be cautious [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Analysis - Different varieties in the feed, breeding, and oil industries have different market logics, support levels, pressure levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, soybean No. 1 05 is expected to be in a volatile adjustment, and it is recommended to wait and see; soybean No. 2 05 is expected to be sold short on rebounds [10]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, main contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including soybeans, peanuts, oils, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [11][12]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report presents the import cost data of oilseeds, including the arrival premium, CBOT soybean futures price, CNF arrival price, soybean import arrival duty - paid price, and soybean meal cost at zero profit for different shipping dates of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, as well as the relevant data for rapeseed and palm oil [12][13]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of oilseeds shows the inventory and operating rates of different varieties, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, and their corresponding operating rates [14]. 3.2.2 Feed - The report provides the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of starch enterprises, as well as the grain - selling progress of farmers [14]. 3.2.3 Breeding - **Pigs**: The report shows the key weekly data of the pig market, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and other indicators [15]. - **Eggs**: The report presents the key weekly data of the egg market, including supply - side indicators such as egg - laying rate, proportion of different egg sizes, and elimination of laying hens, as well as demand - side indicators and profit - related data [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Breeding End (Pigs and Eggs)**: The report includes charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of pigs and eggs, as well as the spot prices of pigs, piglets, and eggs [17][19][20]. - **Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: The report provides charts of Malaysia's palm oil monthly production, export volume, ending inventory, import profit, import volume, domestic inventory, daily trading volume, and price spreads [26][29]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, US soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, daily trading volume, and price spreads [31][33][36]. - **Peanuts**: The report presents charts of the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, peanut crushing profit, oil mill raw material procurement volume, peanut operating rate, peanut inventory, peanut oil inventory, peanut import volume, and price spreads [39][40][42]. - **Feed End** - **Corn**: The report includes charts of the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, port inventory, grain - selling progress, import volume, consumption, inventory, and processing profit of corn [44][45][46]. - **Corn Starch**: The report provides charts of the spot price, futures closing price, basis, price spreads, operating rate, inventory, and profit of corn starch [50][52][53]. - **Rapeseed**: The report presents charts of the spot price of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, basis, inventory, and pressing profit of rapeseed and rapeseed products [55][57][61]. - **Soybean Meal**: The report includes charts of the flowering rate and pod - setting rate of US soybeans, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal [65][68]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oil - The report provides charts of the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [70][71][72]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Breeding, and Oil - The report presents charts of the warehouse receipt situation of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indexes [74][75][76].

Group 1 - Canadian Prime Minister Carney is set to visit China from January 13 to 17, marking the first visit by a Canadian Prime Minister since 2017, aimed at repairing Sino-Canadian relations and discussing trade, energy, agriculture, and international security [1] - The visit is seen as a milestone, particularly by the Canadian agricultural sector, which hopes to ease trade tensions between the two countries [1] - Ontario Premier Doug Ford has publicly urged Carney to maintain high tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles during the visit, reflecting a divide in provincial support regarding trade policies with China [2][3] Group 2 - Ford's stance is influenced by the automotive industry's significance in Ontario, where he insists that any electric vehicles must be produced locally to be sold in Canada [3] - In contrast, the premiers of Saskatchewan and Manitoba support the removal of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, emphasizing the need to alleviate economic pressures on local farmers and producers [5] - British Columbia officials are optimistic that Carney's visit could open new markets for the province's energy sector, highlighting the importance of maintaining trade relations with China for economic resilience [6] Group 3 - A recent Ipsos poll indicates that over 54% of Canadians support strengthening trade ties with China, a significant shift from 2020 when 80% wanted to reduce reliance on the Chinese market [7] - The poll reveals that Canadians are now more focused on trade agreements that directly benefit the economy and reduce living costs, with 71% considering trade relations crucial for economic benefits [7] - Carney aims to diversify Canada's trade partnerships to enhance economic resilience and reduce dependence on a single market, reflecting a strategic shift in trade policy [7][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the bearish expectations of the rapeseed meal sector suppress the market, while soybean meal awaits guidance from the USDA report. There may be a turnaround in China - Canada trade, and the bearish sentiment for rapeseed meal continues. - In the medium - to - long - term, the overall upside potential is limited under the global supply - abundant fundamental situation [34][35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - The closing price of the soybean meal futures main contract (M2605) on January 8, 2026, was 2782, up 33 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.20%. The spot price was 3110, up 50 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 1.63%. - The closing price of the rapeseed meal futures main contract (RM605) on January 8, 2026, was 2358, down 7 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly decrease of 0.30%. The spot price was 2540, up 10 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.40%. - The closing price of the corn futures main contract (C2603) on January 8, 2026, was 2266, up 40 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.80%. The spot price was 2310, down 10 from the previous week, with a weekly decrease of 0.43%. - The closing price of the live hog futures main contract (LH2603) on January 8, 2026, was 11720, down 75 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly decrease of 0.64%. The spot price was 12.85, down 0.33 from the previous week, with a weekly decrease of 2.50%. - The closing price of the egg futures main contract (JD2603) on January 8, 2026, was 3009, up 47 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.59%. The spot price was 3.23, up 0.23 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 7.67% [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost Side - Weather: Recent rainfall in central Brazil is beneficial for soybean pod - setting, and the precipitation coverage will improve next week. - US Soybeans: As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 877,900 tons, a 26% decrease from the previous week and a 42% decrease from the four - week average. The export sales volume so far this season is 29% lower than the same period in 2025, while the USDA predicts an annual decline of 13%. The net sales volume of US soybeans to China (mainland only) in the 2025/26 season in that week was 470,000 tons, higher than 396,000 tons a week ago. The total sales volume of US soybeans to China so far in the 2025/26 season is 6.893 million tons, a 63.8% decrease from 19.036 million tons in the same period in 2025, and a 66.0% decrease a week ago. - Brazil: Brazilian soybean traders expect to export 77 million tons of soybeans to China in 2026, a decrease of 1 million tons from 2025. US soybean sales to China will weaken the demand for Brazilian soybeans to some extent. - Argentina: As of January 8, 2026, the soybean planting rate in the 2025/26 season in Argentina was 92%, up from 86% last week and compared with 96% in the same period in 2025 [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - Import: In November, China did not import soybeans from the US for the third consecutive month and turned to South America for supply. The total soybean import volume in November was 8.11 million tons, of which 5.85 million tons were from Brazil, a 48.5% year - on - year increase, accounting for 72% of the total import volume in that month; the export volume to China from another source soared to 1.78 million tons, a more than six - fold year - on - year increase, accounting for nearly 22% [10]. 3.2.3 Demand - Pressing: In December 2025, the soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills remained high, about 9.05 million tons for the whole month, and soybean meal was continuously accumulating inventory. The import volume of soybeans in January decreased, and it is expected that the soybean pressing volume will decrease slightly to about 8 million tons, with a soybean meal output of about 6.4 million tons. - Transaction: On January 8, the spot market prices of soybean meal in China showed mixed trends. The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 351,800 tons [10]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of the end of the first week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 6.876 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons from the previous week; the inventory of domestic soybean meal was 1.135 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous week, a 3.52% month - on - month decrease; the contract volume was 6.376 million tons, an increase of 1.69 million tons from the previous week, a 36.09% month - on - month increase [10]. 3.3 Supply Side - Import - As of January 8, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 451.00 US dollars per ton, an increase of 8 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 472.00 US dollars per ton, the same as the previous week [14]. 3.4 Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week ending January 8, the soybean pressing profit was - 6.70 yuan per ton, a recovery of 54.45 yuan per ton from the previous week. - As of the week ending January 2, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9838 million tons, an increase of 201,600 tons from the previous week. - As of January 2, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 50%, a 5 - percentage - point recovery from the previous week [19]. 3.5 Inventory Side - As of January 9, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.3396 million tons, a recovery of 54,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a very high level in the past 5 years. - As of January 2, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1.0505 million tons, a decrease of 51,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills is at a very high level in the past 5 years [21]. 3.6 Demand Side - As of January 2, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 139,900 tons, the same as the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively high level in the past 5 years [25]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Supply Side The report presents data on rapeseed import volume from different countries to China, rapeseed meal production in China on different time scales (annual, monthly, weekly), and the expected arrival volume of rapeseed at domestic pressing plants [29]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory Side The report shows data on rapeseed meal's initial inventory, supply, demand, and consumption in China, as well as the inventory and trading volume of rapeseed meal in different regions [32]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - **Soybean Meal**: Since the easing of China - US relations, China's purchasing progress affects the trend of US soybeans. Due to the lack of a formal trade agreement between China and the US, there are still doubts about the subsequent purchasing rhythm, and the uncertainty suppresses the price of US soybeans. In South America, the good weather in Brazil indicates a bumper harvest, which also puts pressure on US soybeans. In China, as the festival approaches, the rigid demand for soybean meal from feed and aquaculture enterprises increases. Coupled with the reduction of soybean pressing after the New Year's Day holiday, the output of soybean meal decreases, supporting the continuous small - scale upward trend of the spot price of soybean meal. The average spot trading price of soybean meal in oil mills has risen to the highest level in 8 months. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China may put pressure on the price of rapeseed, causing fluctuations in the domestic rapeseed market sentiment. Currently, domestic pressing enterprises have completely shut down, and the spot supply is in short supply. Traders have a strong willingness to hold prices, and the spot price of rapeseed meal remains stable overall. The crushing progress of imported Australian rapeseed is slow, and the inventory of rapeseed products in coastal oil mills remains low. The unit - protein price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows that rapeseed meal is not cost - effective, and the demand is mediocre. The focus of the rapeseed market is still on the import side, and attention should be paid to news - related disturbances [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The improvement expectation of China - Canada trade relations is rising, which drags down the prices of rapeseed - related futures. The rapeseed - related market shows different supply - demand situations, with both short - term support and long - term supply pressure [7][9]. - The rapeseed market is affected by factors such as the supply of the United States and Brazil, and the import situation of Canada and Australia. The rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal markets follow the trend of soybean - related products to some extent [7][9]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 05 contract was 9042 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed is relatively loose, which restricts the price. The expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations supports the Canadian rapeseed market. In Indonesia, there may be a reduction in oil palm plantations and a possible increase in palm oil export tax, which is beneficial for palm oil prices, but the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory limits the increase. In China, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a destocking mode, supporting the price and keeping the basis at a high level. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations increase the long - term supply pressure [7]. 3.1.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market Performance**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 05 contract was 2338 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [9]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: During the US soybean export season, the supply is abundant, and the Brazilian soybean harvest is expected to be high. The US soybean market is under pressure. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is still restricted in the near term, and oil mills are shut down, leading to a tight supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected improvement of China - Canada trade relations increase the long - term supply pressure. Meanwhile, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total open interest of 245,121 lots, an increase of 45,683 lots compared with last week [14]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total open interest of 809,345 lots, an increase of 177,875 lots compared with last week [14]. 3.2.2 Top 20 Net Positions - The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures this week were - 10,917, compared with - 23,985 last week, with a decrease in net short positions [20]. - The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures this week were - 107,343, compared with - 40,144 last week, with an increase in net short positions [20]. 3.2.3 Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 2042 lots [26]. - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal were 84 lots [26]. 3.2.4 Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 9770 yuan/ton, slightly rising compared with last week. The basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was + 728 yuan/ton [32]. - The price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was reported at 2460 yuan/ton, basically unchanged compared with last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price of rapeseed meal was + 122 yuan/ton [38]. 3.2.5 Futures Inter - month Spread - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was reported at + 21 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years [44]. - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was reported at - 60 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years [44]. 3.2.6 Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 05 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.867; the ratio of the average spot price was 3.87 [47]. 3.2.7 Price Spreads between Rapeseed Oil and Soybean Oil/Palm Oil - The spread between the 05 contract of rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1048 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed slightly this week [57]. - The spread between the 05 contract of rapeseed oil and palm oil was 360 yuan/ton, and the spread narrowed slightly this week [57]. 3.2.8 Price Spread between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The spread between the 05 contract of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 448 yuan/ton [63]. - As of Thursday, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was reported at 710 yuan/ton [63]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Rapeseed - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Forecast**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 60,000 tons, the same as last week, and 722,000 tons in the same period last year. The five - week average was 61,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January, and February were 60,000 tons, 125,000 tons, and 120,000 tons respectively [67]. - **Import Pressing Profit**: As of January 8, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1293 yuan/ton [71]. - **Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 1st week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0.0 tons, the same as last week, with an operating rate of 0.0% [75]. - **Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 0.20 million tons, a decrease of 70.59 million tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 99.72%, and 0 tons in the previous month [79]. 3.3.2 Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 323,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23%. In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil was 170,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 15.00%, and an increase of 30,000 tons compared with the previous month [83]. - **Demand - Side Consumption and Production**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was reported at 4.276 million tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry were reported at 605.7 billion yuan [87]. - **Demand - Side Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the contract volume of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 53,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47% [91]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side Inventory**: As of the end of the 1st week of 2026, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China was 0.0 tons, the same as last week, with a flat month - on - month change [95]. - **Supply - Side Import Volume**: In November 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal was 214,700 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 132.96%, and a month - on - month decrease of 5900 tons compared with the previous month [99]. - **Demand - Side Feed Output**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was reported at 2.9779 million tons [103]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of January 9, rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed down this week. The corresponding option implied volatility was 25.54%, a rebound of 8.85% compared with 16.69% last week, and it was at a relatively high level of the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [106].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, generally fluctuating with soybean meal. The market is waiting for the USDA monthly supply and demand report. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, tightening supply. Imported soybean customs clearance policies affect near - month supply. With Australian rapeseed arriving, the marginal supply increases, and the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations enhances the medium - and long - term supply pressure. Meanwhile, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal price dropped significantly today and is generally volatile [2]. - The rapeseed oil market: Domestic oil mills continue to be shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting its price and keeping the basis at a high level. Imported soybean customs clearance policies affect near - month supply. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed for later crushing and the increasing expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations, the long - term supply pressure increases. The rapeseed oil price is volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 8,956 yuan/ton, down 139 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2,358 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan. The futures closing price of the active ICE rapeseed was 618.5 Canadian dollars/ton, up 5.7 Canadian dollars; that of the active contract of rapeseed was 5,430 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [2]. - **Spreads**: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (5 - 9) was 13 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (5 - 9) was - 61 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract position of rapeseed oil was 248,582 lots, up 20,113 lots; that of rapeseed meal was 785,807 lots, up 64,896 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were - 22,389 lots, down 9,350 lots; for rapeseed meal, they were - 97,538 lots, down 78,782 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 1,892, down 238; that of rapeseed meal was 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2. Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,440 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9,806.25 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The import cost price of imported rapeseed was 7,488.03 yuan/ton, up 87.2 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 744 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan; that of the main rapeseed meal contract was 82 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,220 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,080 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 710 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons. The annual forecasted rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume for the month was 0.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk was 499 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Utilization Rate**: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged [2]. 3.4. Industry Situation - **Imports**: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, down 2 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 22.06 million tons, up 6.29 million tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.3 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 26.7 million tons, down 1.4 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 16.7 million tons, down 0.3 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.2 million tons, down 0.1 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 24.6 million tons, down 1.3 million tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume was 0.4 million tons, down 0.34 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume was 0 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed was 2,977.9 million tons, up 20.9 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue was 6,057 billion yuan, up 858 billion yuan [2]. 3.6. Options Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.56%, up 1.51%; that of at - the - money put options was 19.57%, up 1.51%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 16.25%, up 1.35%; that of at - the - money put options was 16.25%, up 1.36% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 13.75%, down 0.59%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 12%, up 0.17%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.01%, down 0.62%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 13.17%, up 0.01% [2]. 3.7. Industry News - On January 7 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by optimistic trade expectations and the spill - over effect of the stronger US soybeans. The ICE March rapeseed futures contract rose 6.10 Canadian dollars, settling at 620 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - During the US soybean export season, the short - term supply is abundant, and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans means that the US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market, so there is still pressure on the US soybean market [2]. 3.8. Key Points to Follow - The rapeseed operating rate and the rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions from Myagric on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Supply tightness will support prices, but weak demand will limit the upside potential. Attention should be paid to the clearance progress of imported rapeseed, the development of China - Canada trade relations, and the impact of the soybean meal market on rapeseed meal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - On January 5, 2026, the opening price of the main contract (RM.CZC) of rapeseed meal futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 2354.0 yuan/ton, the highest price was 2382.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 2350.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2361.0 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decline from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 271,120 lots, the open interest was 644,700 lots, and the trading volume was 6.41268 billion yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - On January 5, 2026, the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2440.0 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price was 2361.0 yuan/ton. The basis was 79 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a premium to the futures price. The positive basis reflects the current tight supply in the spot market, supporting the spot price to maintain a premium over the futures price [3][5]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Supply**: Slow clearance of Australian rapeseed, zero operating rate of domestic oil mills, and low inventory of coastal oil mills in the rapeseed industry lead to tight market supply, which supports prices [6]. - **Demand**: Feed enterprises have high finished - product inventory, weak purchasing willingness, mainly replenishing stocks in small orders and purchasing as needed. The unit - protein price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows that rapeseed meal lacks cost - effectiveness, resulting in mediocre demand [6]. - **Related Markets**: The price of the soybean meal market is stable, and the domestic mainstream reference price of soybean meal is 3105 yuan/ton. The futures market maintains a low - level range - bound oscillation, which restricts the price of rapeseed meal [6]. - **Policy and Trade**: The progress of China - Australia rapeseed procurement policy and changes in China - Canada relations are the focus of the market. The result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is still unclear, increasing market uncertainty [6]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The rapeseed meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Supply tightness will support prices, but weak demand will limit the upside potential. Technically, the price is above the 20 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the clearance progress of imported rapeseed, the development of China - Canada trade relations, and the impact of the soybean meal market on rapeseed meal. If the supply shortage persists, the price may remain firm; if the import policy loosens, the supply pressure may be relieved [7].

加贸易关系和放开澳菜籽商业采买的可能。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 菜籽系产业日报 2026-01-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9095 | -35 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2419 | 29 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) | 14 | -38 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日,元/吨) | -46 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, the entry into the off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand, and the influence of soybean meal trends [8]. - Rapeseed meal futures will fluctuate within the range of 2300 - 2500 for the RM2605 contract, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended. For options, selling out - of - the - money put options is suggested [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Rapeseed meal oscillated and declined, affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The market returned to a volatile state, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal entered the off - season, and low inventory supported the market. Due to the uncertainty in China - Canada trade consultations, the market would maintain a range - bound fluctuation in the short - term [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season at the end of the year. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short - term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Although it is the harvesting and exporting stage of Canadian rapeseed, the China - Canada trade issue has reduced the short - term export and domestic supply expectation [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and an import deposit of 75.8% was imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, and it depends on the further development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production increased this year, with the production in Canada higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in rapeseed production in Ukraine and the increase in Russia offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors: The domestic aquaculture demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed arrival**: Rapeseed arrivals increased slightly in December, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [19]. - **Oil mill processing and inventory**: The oil mill's rapeseed processing volume remained at zero. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills and rapeseed meal inventory were both at low levels [21][23]. - **Rapeseed meal trading**: Rapeseed meal futures rose first and then fell, and spot prices fluctuated accordingly, with the spot premium remaining at a relatively high level [33]. - **Aquaculture**: Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [31]. 3.5 Position Data The main players switched from long to short positions, and funds flowed out, indicating a bearish signal [8]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal returned to a volatile state affected by soybean meal trends. Due to the uncertainty in China - Canada trade relations, it will maintain a range - bound fluctuation in the short - term [42]. - The KDJ indicator crossed at a high level, and the market is in a technical consolidation stage. The indicator at a medium - high level limits the room for further rebound [42]. - The MACD oscillated and rebounded at a low level, with a short - term technical rebound and the green energy turning red. The subsequent trend depends on rapeseed import policies and soybean meal trends [42]. 3.7 Next Week's Focus Points - Most important: The growth and harvesting weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed, domestic processing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45]. - Second important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, the rapeseed meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [45]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45].

让衍生品 成为新的生产力 Make derivatives the new productivity 中辉期货研究院 从业资格证号：F0232181 投资咨询证号：Z000183 时间：2025.12.26 农产品团队： 贾晖 Z000183 曹以康 F03133687 NFR 2026 商品年度报告 双粕 主产国博弈年 双粕行情不确定性增强 展望 2026年，我们认为—— 在全球气候基本稳定以及全球大豆供应形势初步预期尚可的情况下，2026 年国内豆粕预计更多呈现阶段性行情机会，行情表现也会较2025年将更加复杂 多变。全球大豆供应状态有望在美国和巴西间形成博弈，博弈中国际大豆及国 内豆粕价格不确定性增强。但如果按照11月中国对美豆采购协议以及13%的关税， 国内豆粕2025年会面临成本抬升。关注2026年美豆种植面积以及中美采购协议 的稳定性。关注阶段性和成本下的逢低看多机会。 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业 务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 菜粕市场 受贸易政策影响，菜粕呈现内紧外松，内强外弱的表现。国际市场方面， 2025/26年度全球菜籽产量恢复性增加，利空国际菜系价格。强弱多重因素影响 下，202 ...