Group 1 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce indicated a potential meeting with Chinese negotiation representatives in early August [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson responded that both sides are maintaining close communication on economic and trade concerns at multiple levels [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Department reported that China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds by $8.2 billion in April, totaling a $27.1 billion sell-off in March and April combined, raising concerns in the U.S. about the future of its debt buyers [1] - The Trump administration's proposed "Big and Beautiful Act" aims to increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, but the Federal Reserve's refusal to lower interest rates complicates the situation, as the U.S. still relies on China as a key buyer of its debt [1][5] - The overall U.S. debt market is facing challenges, with rising yields and falling prices indicating an oversupply and insufficient demand, leading to a decline in confidence in U.S. debt [5][7] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S.-China negotiations are focused on opening Chinese markets to U.S. goods, as China has significantly reduced its purchases of U.S. agricultural products and oil, which is a concern for U.S. lawmakers [3][9] - The U.S. Treasury's total debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with a rapid increase of $1 trillion in less than six months, while foreign ownership of U.S. debt has decreased from 45% in 2014 to 28% in 2023 [5] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is influenced by multiple factors, including the need to stabilize prices and avoid political pressure, while also adjusting economic growth and inflation expectations [7][9]

Economic Performance - In May, the economic growth rate is estimated to be around 5.5%, consistent with the previous month, indicating a stable economic performance[16] - The demand improvement is primarily driven by consumption, while investment and exports show marginal slowdown, aligning with prior assessments[16] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and indicating a recovery in consumer spending[21] - Policy-driven consumption, particularly in home appliances and cultural products, showed significant growth rates of 53% and 30.5% respectively, contributing to the overall retail sales increase[25] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth remains at 3.7% year-on-year, below expectations, with real estate investment declining by 10.7%[32] - Manufacturing investment growth is at 8.5%, reflecting a marginal decrease, influenced by uncertainties in the market due to U.S. tariff policies[48] U.S. Tariff Policy Impact - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to affect market sentiment and investment decisions, with expectations of a slight economic slowdown in Q2 to around 5.2%-5.3%[3] - The potential for a recovery in market sentiment is anticipated in Q3 if U.S. tariff policies stabilize or improve, possibly leading to new investment opportunities[3] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market remains under pressure, with property sales declining by 4.41% year-on-year, although the rate of decline is showing signs of slowing[35] - The average sales price of commercial housing in May was 10,004.44 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, indicating a need for price stabilization[35] Future Outlook - If U.S.-China trade negotiations yield positive results, there could be a restoration of market risk appetite, benefiting exports and overall economic recovery[57] - The upcoming July meeting of the Central Political Bureau is critical for observing potential policies aimed at stabilizing growth amid external pressures[58]

Economic Performance - In May, the economic growth rate is estimated to be around 5.5%, consistent with the previous month[11] - Demand improvement is primarily driven by consumption, while investment and exports show marginal slowdown[11] - The supply side shows marginal improvement mainly due to a recovery in service production[11] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and benefiting from holiday effects and consumption policies[13] - Policy-driven consumption categories, such as home appliances and communication equipment, showed significant growth rates of 53% and 33% respectively[17] - The optimization of the tax refund policy for outbound tourists led to a 116% increase in tax refund applications in the first month of implementation[20] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth for January to May is 3.7%, below expectations, with real estate investment declining by 10.7%[23] - Manufacturing investment growth in May was 8.5%, reflecting a marginal decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous value[36] - Real estate sales area decreased by 3.62% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market[26] External Factors - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies continues to impact market sentiment and investment decisions[2] - If the 90-day tariff exemption ends without further negotiations, the tariff rate could rise to 54%, exacerbating external demand shocks[5] - The potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September could create new investment opportunities in the capital market[2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives trend judgments for various commodities, including "bullish", "bearish", "sideways", etc. for specific products. 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: Domestic factors have weak driving force for stock indices, with weak fundamentals and a policy vacuum. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the probability of stock indices breaking upward is low without significant positive news. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank [1]. - **Commodities**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, silver prices are expected to enter a weak sideways trend; copper prices may correct after rising; aluminum prices remain strong due to inventory decline; zinc prices are pressured by inventory increase, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - financial** - **Stock indices**: Domestic factors are weak, overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations. Without significant positive news, the probability of upward breakthrough is low. It is recommended to wait and see, being vigilant about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest rate risks are prompted by the central bank, suppressing the upward movement. In the short - term, they may move sideways, while the long - term upward logic is still solid [1]. **Non - ferrous metals** - **Silver**: Expected to enter a weak sideways trend in the short - term [1]. - **Copper**: After the price rises, there is a risk of correction due to the decline in market risk appetite [1]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory continues to decline, increasing the risk of a short squeeze, and the price remains strong [1]. - **Alumina**: Spot price is stable, while the futures price is weak, with a significant futures discount. The profit of the smelting end is okay, and the increase in production pressures the futures price [1]. - **Zinc**: Inventory increase on Monday pressures the price. The downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability of social inventory on Thursday. Buyers can enter the market at an appropriate time [1]. - **Nickel**: The removal of the nickel ore export ban in the Philippines suppresses market sentiment. The nickel price is in a weak sideways trend in the short - term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short - term [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The spot trading is weak, and social inventory slightly increases. In the short - term, the futures are in a weak sideways trend, and there is still supply pressure in the long - term. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations [1]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to be affected by the Thai ban, and the short - term price is in a high - level sideways trend [1]. **Industrial metals** - **Industrial silicon**: The supply side shows an improvement trend, the demand side remains low without improvement, and the inventory pressure is huge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The mine - end price continues to decline, and downstream raw material inventory is high, with inactive purchases [1]. - **Lithium carbonate**: In the window period from peak season to off - season, the cost is loose, and the supply - demand pattern is loose, with no upward driving force observed [1]. - **Iron ore**: There is an expectation that iron - making water has reached its peak, and there will be an increase in supply in June. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure on steel [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: Short - term supply - demand is balanced, with a slight increase in production and okay demand, but there is heavy warehouse receipt pressure [1]. - **Silicon iron**: The cost is affected by coal, some alloy plants resume production, and there is still pressure of supply - demand surplus [1]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand is weak, the off - season is coming, demand is weakening, and the price continues to be weak [1]. - **Soda ash**: Maintenance is gradually restored, direct demand is okay, but there are concerns about supply surplus, and terminal demand is weak, pressuring the price [1]. - **Coking coal and coke**: The spot prices continue to weaken. Against the background of a high basis, the futures rebound to repair the discount. It is still possible to short - sell coking coal, and coke prices decline synchronously with the decrease in the cost of coal for furnace entry [1]. **Agricultural products** - **Palm oil**: According to the May report of MPOB, if there are unexpected data, there may be a gap - opening market at the opening of the afternoon session. There is a game between weak fundamentals and the fluctuations of other oils [1]. - **Soybean oil**: The expectation of Sino - Canadian negotiations is blocked, there is a lack of key negative driving forces, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the rebound of the futures [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are still strong. Domestic cotton prices are expected to be in a weak sideways trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season [1]. - **Corn**: The annual supply - demand is expected to be tight, the wheat price stabilizes under the purchasing - support policy, and the corn price is expected to be sideways in the short - term [1]. - **Soybean meal**: The center of the futures price is lifted by the expectation of de - stocking in the fourth quarter and the slow inventory accumulation. However, with the continuous progress of ship purchases, if the weather is normal, the increase of M09 is expected to be limited, and it will generally remain sideways [1]. - **Pulp**: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: The supply is abundant, the demand is light, and there is a lack of positive factors. It is recommended to hold short positions or short - sell after a rebound [1]. - **Hogs**: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is generally good. The futures are at a large discount to the spot. The spot is less affected by slaughter in the short - term, and the futures remain stable overall [1]. **Energy and chemicals** - **Crude oil and fuel oil**: The Sino - US Geneva negotiations have no unexpected results, geopolitical situations are disturbing, and the summer consumption peak may provide support [1]. - **Asphalt**: The cost side drags down, the inventory returns to normal with a reduced accumulation slope, and the demand is slowly recovering. The end of the 14th Five - Year Plan this year is promising for the downstream [1]. - **BR rubber**: The cost support weakens as the price of butadiene is reduced. In the short - term, high inventory and weak demand continue, and the price is expected to decline sideways due to the fall in raw material prices. In the long - term, pay attention to the support of butadiene maintenance and demand improvement [1]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation has been alleviated to some extent, and the short - fiber cost is closely related to it. Short - fiber factories have maintenance plans [1]. - **Ethylene glycol**: The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol expands due to the fall in coal prices. It continues to de - stock, and the arrival volume will decrease. The polyester production cut has an impact, and it is expected to continue to decline [1]. - **Styrene**: The basis difference between futures and spot returns fully, the cost support weakens, and the inventory decreases significantly [1]. - **PE**: There are many maintenance activities, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price moves sideways with a slight upward trend [1]. - **PVC**: Maintenance is about to end, new plants are put into operation, and the downstream enters the seasonal off - season. Supply pressure increases, and the price moves sideways with a downward trend. Pay attention to the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [1]. - **LPG**: The supply increases, port inventory is high, and the demand in the combustion off - season suppresses the price. Chemical demand has no significant increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling high and buying low from mid - June to the end of the month [1]. **Shipping** - **Container shipping (European routes)**: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. In the short - term, be cautious when short - selling during the price - holding period. As the futures start to show a safety margin, it is possible to lightly go long on the peak - season contracts. Pay attention to the 6 - 8 reverse spread, 8 - 10 and 12 - 4 positive spreads [1].

Industry Investment Rating - Not available Core Viewpoints - The index has stable support below but faces pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index fluctuates in the short - term due to news. The big - finance sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation has reached a framework consensus, but there is no incremental information. The uncertainty of Treasury bond futures has weakened, and the overall situation is strong. Gold maintains a range - bound oscillation and may have pulse - type fluctuations. The increase in US inflation is less than expected, supporting the Fed to cut interest rates earlier, and the Middle East geopolitical tensions drive up the price of gold. The container shipping index is in a shock consolidation. The demand and inventory of industrial steel materials are deteriorating. The iron ore is in a range - bound oscillation. The coking coal and coke market expectations are improving. The prices of various energy - chemical and agricultural products show different trends [2] Summary by Variety Financial - **Stock Index**: The index has stable support below and pressure to break through above. The big - finance sector leads the upward movement, and the stock index rebounds comprehensively. It is recommended to sell the put options of the CSI 1000 Index with an exercise price around 5800 in July to collect the premium [2] - **Treasury Bond**: The uncertainty of Treasury bond futures has weakened, and the overall situation is strong. In the short - term, it is advisable to allocate long positions on dips. Pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract. If there is no sudden change in the trade negotiation this week, Treasury bond futures may continue to oscillate strongly. Currently, 1.6% is the downward resistance level of the 10 - year bond interest rate [2] - **Precious Metal**: Gold maintains a range - bound oscillation and may have pulse - type fluctuations. Do the double - selling strategy of out - of - the - money gold options to earn time value. Consider going long on the main contract on dips. Be cautious about the flow of speculative funds in silver and the "killing decline" caused by long - position profit - taking [2] Black - **Steel**: The demand and inventory of industrial steel materials are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline range of apparent demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on finished products and short on raw materials [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is in a range - bound oscillation, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change of terminal demand [2] - **Coking Coal**: The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, the coal mine start - up has declined from a high level, and the spot has signs of stabilizing. It is recommended to go long on JM2509 on dips [2] - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented. The futures price has a rebound expectation. It is recommended to go long on J2509 on dips [2] - **Silicon Iron**: It is in a bottom - range oscillation. Try to go short when it rebounds to 5300 - 5400 [2] - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply pressure still exists. It is in a bottom - range oscillation. Try to go short when it rebounds to 5700 - 5800 [2] Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The domestic spot trading has weakened, and the US copper restocking continues. The main contract reference range is 77000 - 80000 [2] - **Zinc**: The mine - end resumption of production provides incremental supply, and the zinc price oscillates weakly [2] - **Nickel**: The afternoon sentiment improved, and the price rose slightly. The main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [2] - **Stainless Steel**: After the price limit was partially restored, the price turned red, but the fundamental contradiction remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy after the sentiment stabilizes. The main contract reference range is 12400 - 13000 [2] - **Tin**: Due to the slow recovery of supply and the warming of macro - sentiment, the tin price continues to rise. It is recommended to adopt a short - term long - bias strategy [2] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks are rising. The short - term oil price is likely to continue the strong - bias oscillation trend. Pay attention to the opportunity of monthly spread expansion [2] - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand has not improved. The downward pressure on the price remains. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for the rebound opportunity. The support level of the main contract is adjusted to 1620 - 1640. Consider the 09 - 01 reverse arbitrage [2] - **PX**: The cost side is strong, and the supply - demand situation is good. It has support at 6400 - 6500 in the short - term. Do short - term long operations; mainly do short - term reverse arbitrage for PX9 - 1; shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2] - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is gradually weakening, but the cost side is strong. It is in a stalemate oscillation. Operate in the range of 4500 - 4800 in the short - term; mainly do reverse arbitrage for TA9 - 1 when it is high [2] - **Short - fiber**: Under the expectation of factory production cuts, the short - term processing fee has slightly recovered, but the driving force is still limited. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; expand the processing fee on the PF disk when it is low [2] - **Bottle Chip**: In the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production cuts for bottle chips, and the processing fee is bottom - seeking. It follows the cost fluctuation. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA. The processing fee on the main PF disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand it at the lower edge of the range [2] - **Ethanol**: The short - term demand is weak, but the supply - demand structure of MEG is still good. It is expected to oscillate in the range. Oscillate in the range of 4200 - 4400 for EG09 in the short - term; pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage for EG9 - 1 on dips [2] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The short - term raw materials and benzene ethylene destocking support the price. Pay attention to the medium - term contradiction. Wait and see in the short - term, and consider high - short operations in the medium - term when there is a raw material resonance opportunity [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand expectation is not good, the spot price has回调, and the near - month support is insufficient. Exit the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage. Wait and see for unilateral operations [2] - **PVC**: The short - term contradiction has not further intensified, and the macro - disturbance has increased. The price is in a low - level consolidation. Wait and see in the short - term, and maintain a high - short strategy for medium - and long - term participation [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: BR follows the commodity price fluctuation. Hold the short position of BR2507 [2] - **LLDPE**: The spot price and basis change little, and the trading volume is moderate [2] - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, and it oscillates weakly. Oscillate weakly and go short on rallies [2] - **Methanol**: The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it oscillates [2] Agricultural - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: During the Sino - US trade negotiation, the price runs strongly [2] - **Pig**: The demand is weak due to the hot weather, but the rising feed price boosts the price. Pay attention to the performance around 13500 [2] - **Corn**: The upward momentum weakens, and it oscillates at a high level. Oscillate around 2380 in the short - term [2] - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the concern about production, it falls inertia - ally. It may test the support at 7800 in the short - term [2] - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. Do short - selling on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2] - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. Do short - selling on rebounds [2] - **Egg**: There is a risk that the spot price may weaken again. Do short - selling on the rebound of the 07 contract and hold the short position [2] - **Apple**: The price in the sales area is stable, and the transaction is priced according to quality. The main contract runs around 7500 [2] - **Jujube**: The market price runs weakly and stably. It runs around 8900 in the short - term [2] - **Peanut**: The market price oscillates. The main contract runs around 8200 [2] - **Soda Ash**: The over - supply logic continues. Maintain the high - short strategy on rebounds. Hold the high - level short position and do the 7 - 9 positive arbitrage [2] Special Commodities - **Glass**: Affected by the cold - repair news, the price fluctuates repeatedly. Wait and see in the short - term [2] - **Rubber**: The driving force is limited, and the rubber price oscillates. Adopt a high - short strategy when it rebounds above 14000 [2] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price rises, and the futures - spot price gradually converges. The polysilicon futures price stabilizes and rebounds. Hold the short position cautiously or close the position first [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by the news, the price rises, but the fundamental logic remains unchanged. Observe the performance around 62,000 first [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to move sideways, and treasury bonds are expected to strengthen sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar and iron ore are recommended for temporary observation, and coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for light - short attempts, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies, tin, gold, and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][11][14][16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be weak in a sideways trend; soda ash's 01 contract follows a short - selling strategy; urea and methanol are expected to move sideways; polyolefins are expected to have a wide - range sideways movement [1][19][21][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to rebound in a sideways trend, apples are expected to move sideways, and PTA is expected to move sideways within a range [1][35][36]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended for shorting on rallies, corn is recommended for operation within the range of [2300, 2360], soybean meal is recommended for buying on dips, and oils are recommended for shorting on rallies [1][38][40][42]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events. It suggests that different futures markets will show different trends, such as sideways movement, strengthening, or weakening, and gives corresponding trading suggestions [1][5][7]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap and stable large - cap". After the negotiation benefits come to an end, the technology sector related to IM has positive catalysts, and domestic stock indices are expected to move sideways [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the continuous loosening of the capital market, rumors of continued inquiry and renewal of repurchase - style reverse repos, and the conclusion of Sino - US consultations, the market's buying power has further increased. The bond market is expected to strengthen sideways, and it is recommended to allocate on dips [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price of rebar futures fluctuated strongly on Wednesday. The fundamentals show that the apparent demand for rebar has declined, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced. In the later stage, there may be a slight accumulation of inventory. It is expected that the price will move weakly in a sideways trend, and it is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is supported by steel mill production and Sino - US negotiations. The supply and demand fundamentals have little impact, and it is more affected by macro - news. It is expected to move sideways, and it is recommended to observe [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke remains loose. The short - term market is expected to continue to move sideways. Attention should be paid to factors such as coal mine inventory reduction, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand [8][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations have not made a breakthrough, but the US information is optimistic. The market expects the US to impose tariffs on copper, and the LME copper inventory has decreased. The domestic copper market has low inventory and weak consumption. It is expected to move sideways at a high level, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: Guinea's mine - end disturbances have not yet affected the current supply of bauxite, but the impact cannot be ignored. The downstream demand for aluminum is weakening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to strengthen observation [13]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment is complex. The nickel ore market is tight, but the downstream demand is weak. The refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is expected to move weakly in a sideways trend, and it is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies [14]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is gradually improving, but the US tariff policy suppresses downstream demand. It is expected to move sideways, and it is recommended for trading within a range [16]. - **Gold and Silver**: US economic data shows resilience, and the tariff policy causes market concerns. The central bank's gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices of precious metals. It is expected that the prices will continue to move sideways, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: In the long - term, PVC demand is weak due to the real - estate drag, and the supply pressure is large. The inventory is currently being reduced, and the macro - factors are dominant. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend, and attention should be paid to the tariff negotiation progress and domestic stimulus policies [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. The non - aluminum off - season reduces the purchasing willingness for high - priced caustic soda. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend, and attention should be paid to factors such as alumina production and 6 - 8 month maintenance [22]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is affected by the strong oil price and is expected to continue to rebound, but the overall valuation is high, and the supply - demand is tending to be loose. It is recommended to short on rallies [25]. - **Rubber**: The terminal demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals lack effective drivers. It is expected to move sideways, and attention should be paid to macro - news [26]. - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is limited. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to be weak in a sideways trend. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer start - up and urea device maintenance [29]. - **Methanol**: The supply is loose, the main downstream demand is okay, but there are maintenance plans for olefin devices, and the traditional downstream demand support is insufficient. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend [31]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure remains, the demand enters the traditional off - season, and the inventory has different trends. It is expected to move sideways in a weak trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and domestic policies [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, the downstream market is not good, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [34]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply - demand is still loose, but the recent improvement in Sino - US relations is expected to cause the cotton price to rebound in a sideways trend [35]. - **Apples**: The trading atmosphere in the apple market is average, and the market is affected by factors such as the off - season and the impact of other fruits. It is expected to move sideways [35]. - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of downstream polyester demand, the PTA price is under short - term pressure. It is expected to move sideways within a range [36]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The short - term pig price is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend, and it is recommended to short on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. The medium - term supply is expected to increase, and the long - term supply pressure may be relieved. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [41]. - **Corn**: The short - term market supply - demand game intensifies, and the price has support. The medium - and long - term supply - demand tightens, but the price increase space is limited. It is recommended to operate within a range and pay attention to substitutes [43]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term is affected by US soybean weather, and the medium - and long - term is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to buy on dips [45]. - **Oils**: The overall fundamentals of oils are mixed. Different oils have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to the oil - meal ratio short - selling strategy [50].

Report Overview - The report is a macro-financial data daily report released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute's Macro-Financial Research Center on June 11, 2025 [2][3] Market Interest Rates - DRO01 closed at 1.36 with a -1.41bp change, DR007 at 1.51 with a -0.63bp change, GC001 at 1.51 with an 8.50bp change, and GC007 at 1.56 with a 1.00bp change [3] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.65 with a -0.40bp change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a -10.00bp change [3] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.41 with a -0.25bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.50 with a 0.54bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.59 with a 0.25bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.49 with a -2.00bp change [3] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted 1986 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% the previous day. With 4545 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 2559 billion yuan [3] - This week, 9309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 2149 billion, 1265 billion, and 1350 billion yuan maturing from Wednesday to Friday respectively [4] Stock Index Futures - The CSI 300 closed at 3865 with a -0.51% change, IF current - month contract at 3841 with a -0.7% change; the SSE 50 closed at 2676 with a -0.39% change, IH current - month contract at 2660 with a -0.6% change; the CSI 500 closed at 5758 with a -0.82% change, IC current - month contract at 5718 with a -0.8% change; the CSI 1000 closed at 6162 with a -0.92% change, IM current - month contract at 6114 with a -0.9% change [5] - IF trading volume was 98975 with a 12.2% change, IF open interest was 238881 with a -1.6% change; IH trading volume was 26839 with a 28.1% change, IH open interest was 84465 with a 0.1% change; IC trading volume was 86124 with a 12.8% change, IC open interest was 219085 with a -0.7% change; IM trading volume was 212759 with a 23.5% change, IM open interest was 338127 with a 4.2% change [5] Market Analysis and Suggestions - The domestic factors have weak driving force for the stock index. The fundamentals are weak, with prices remaining low and export growth slowing. The policy is in a relatively quiet period [6] - Overseas factors dominate the short - term fluctuations of the stock index. Attention should be paid to the latest progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. Without obvious positive news, the possibility of the stock index breaking through upwards is low. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Index Futures Premium and Discount - IF premium/discount: current - month contract 23.10%, next - month contract 15.22%, current - quarter contract 0.02%, next - quarter contract 5.91% [7] - IH premium/discount: current - month contract 22.37%, next - month contract 17.01%, current - quarter contract 7.18%, next - quarter contract 3.71% [7] - IC premium/discount: current - month contract 25.22%, next - month contract 18.22%, current - quarter contract 13.97%, next - quarter contract 11.48% [7] - IM premium/discount: current - month contract 28.37%, next - month contract 22.09%, current - quarter contract 17.95%, next - quarter contract 14.85% [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have reached a significant stage, with the departure of U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggesting a potential consensus has been approached [1][3] - The involvement of U.S. Commerce Secretary Ross, who was not part of the previous negotiations, signifies a shift in U.S. diplomatic strategy, incorporating export control issues into the discussions [3][7] - The negotiations lasted for 20 hours, resulting in a preliminary "basic trade framework," which both sides plan to present to their leaders for further action [4][5] Group 2 - The intense negotiation format, described as "marathon-style," has facilitated communication between the two parties, although it has not eliminated all differences [5][9] - China's firm stance against U.S. demands is expected, as they maintain a principle of "equality and mutual benefit," indicating readiness to resist unreasonable requests [7][9] - The upcoming expiration of the U.S. tariff grace period adds urgency to the negotiations, with the possibility of an extension to allow more time for agreement [9][11] Group 3 - The complexity of the U.S.-China trade talks is expected to increase, influenced by Mnuchin's exit, Ross's entry, and China's strong position, which will impact the final outcomes of the negotiations [11]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3384.82, down by 14.96 points, a decrease of 0.44%[1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3865.47, down by 19.78 points, a decrease of 0.51%[1] - The ChiNext Index fell by 1.17%, while the STAR 50 Index dropped by 1.47%[2] Bond Market Insights - The yield on the 10-year government bond rose by 0.2 basis points to 1.66%[2] - The 30-year government bond yield decreased by 0.4 basis points to 1.87%[2] - The central bank conducted a reverse repo of 198.6 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan[4] Economic and Trade Context - The ongoing US-China trade talks have led to a cautious market sentiment, impacting stock performance negatively[2] - Gold prices increased, with London gold rising from $3300 to $3340 per ounce during the talks[3] - The market is adjusting to lower volatility expectations, which may lead to sudden shifts in asset prices[6] Sector Performance - The small-cap index (CSI 2000) fell by 0.82%, indicating a crowded market that may face increased outflows[7] - The technology sector saw significant declines, with the innovation drug index rising by 0.84%, showing resilience against broader market trends[7] Investment Outlook - The current market adjustment is viewed as a healthy correction, potentially leading to increased trading activity[8] - The technology sector's fundamentals remain intact, suggesting opportunities for recovery despite recent declines[8]