Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The easing of tariffs in the short - term is positive news, causing gold and silver prices to decline. With the release of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement, the temporary tax relief and reduction exceeded market expectations, leading to a continued correction in gold and silver prices. Given that the market is in a stage of expecting a cooling of tariff conflicts and there is unlikely to be a rapid interest rate cut in the short - term, gold may enter a correction phase, and silver also lacks upward momentum. However, gold still has overall support due to the decline in confidence in US dollar assets and concerns about a US recession [5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512 are 770.30 and 776.24 respectively, with declines of - 16.02 and - 16.32, and drops of - 2.04% and - 2.06%. The current prices of Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 are 8232.00 and 8295.00 respectively, with increases of 64.00 and 63.00, and rises of 0.78% and 0.77%. The trading volumes are 169801 and 29027 for Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512, and 483540 and 24604 for Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 [2]. - **Positions**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512 are 87624 and 53842, and those of Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 are 209420 and 116409 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D were 785.3, 774.29, and 8150.00 respectively. The price changes were - 2.23, 4.33, and 50.00, and the percentage changes were - 0.28%, 0.56%, and 0.62% [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of the spreads between Shanghai Gold 2512 and 2506, and Shanghai Silver 2512 and 2506 are 5.94 and 63 respectively, and the previous values were 6.24 and 64 [2]. Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The current values of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver inventories are 17,238 kg and 934,459 kg, with increases of 1,590.00 kg and 2,477.00 kg compared to the previous values. The COMEX gold and silver inventories are 39,154,147 and 503,581,350, with increases of 22,864.13 and 781250 [2]. Related Market - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 100.4218, 5659.91, 4.37, 63.88, and 7.2402 respectively, with changes of - 0.21%, - 0.07%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and - 0.05% [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons. The CFTC speculators' net positions in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895, with changes of 481 and - 1451 [2]. Macro News - **Trade Policies**: The US and China agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. The UK will reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US maintains a 10% uniform tariff on UK imports [3][5]. - **US Pharmaceutical Policy**: US President Trump signed an executive order requiring pharmaceutical manufacturers to lower drug prices, aiming for a price reduction of 59% - 90%, but analysts and legal experts believe it is difficult to implement [3]. - **Central Bank Statements**: A Fed governor said that Trump's tariff policy may push up inflation and drag down economic growth. European Central Bank officials said they need to be cautious about the next interest - rate move due to the high uncertainty of Trump's economic policies. Goldman Sachs adjusted the expected time of the Fed's next interest - rate cut to December, raised the forecast of the US economic growth rate in Q4 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and lowered the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 35% [3][4].

热点报告—锌 [★Ta宏bl观e_面Su：mm宏a观ry]利多阶段性出清，关税缓和递延需求走弱预期 关税缓和有几率带动锌终端需求发动新一轮抢出口，需求走弱预 期将有所递延。但即便排除关税，海外反倾销举措、买单出口等 因素依然会对锌下游出口形成压制。国内降准降息落地后，到下 一次联储降息前或存在政策真空期，宏观利多基本阶段性出清。 利多阶段性出清，基本面拐点将至 ★供应端：国内供应维持偏强释放预期 有 色 金 1Q25 海外出矿表现较好，大型项目和新项目增复产相对顺利， 部分海外炼厂进行主动减产，后续或有更多锌矿能流入国内。按 现有原料库存来估算，即便炼厂维持 4 月高位产量，矿端也难在 三季度中期前出现明显紧缺。在原料充裕和利润修复的双重支撑 下，炼厂具有较强的开工动能，预计 5 月下旬锌锭产量将有所修 复，且比价打开时间和幅度略超预期，后续或有更多进口锌流入。 属 ★需求端：内需承压预期递延而非消除 宏观来看，目前锌需求处于季节性走弱过程中。中观来看，新增 专项债实际发行规模和速度不及预期，基建实物工作量表现偏弱 且后续增量有限，关税缓和对耐用消费品的提振仍需持续观察。 微观来看，下游厂商受关税缓和刺激和担 ...

5月13日早盘，港股三大指数集体低开，恒生指数跌0.23%，报23494.44点，恒生科指跌0.29%，国企指 数跌0.17%。盘面上，科网股涨跌不一，机器人概念股集体上涨，优必选高开近15%，生物医药股回 暖。开盘后，恒生科技指数震荡下行，一度跌超2%，成分股中，比亚迪（002594）电子、美团、蔚 来、舜宇光学科技、网易、小鹏汽车、快手等领跌。由于昨日恒生科技指数于A股盘后大幅上扬，最后 港股收涨5.16%，今早开盘恒生科技指数ETF(513180)迎来小幅补涨。 关税缓和信号下，哪些板块有望受益？中泰证券（600918）在近期研报中强调，本次中美日内瓦经贸会 联合声明的达成标志着4月以来贸易摩擦初步缓和，短期或有效提振风险偏好。随着高关税的暂时性撤 回，对于前期受压制的出口链条，以及科技龙头等板块，尤其是受中美地缘关系影响较大的恒生科技成 分股，短期内或迎来估值回升机会。结构上关注：1)当前中美关税出现明显缓和趋势，但潜在关税仍较 大。出口方面关注高景气板块。受益于"全球制造业扩张"下的工程机械、电力设备、核电、有色金属等 细分或相对占优。2)中美关税政策缓和或带来市场风险偏好大幅回升，恒生科技板块同时 ...

Group 1 - Global stock markets remained stable last week, with financials, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors leading the performance, indicating a general recovery in risk appetite [1][6][13] - The MSCI Global index decreased by 0.1%, with developed markets also down by 0.1%, while emerging markets saw a slight increase of 0.2% [6][13] - The Hang Seng Index's earnings forecast for 2025 was revised upward from 2195 to 2208, showing the best performance among global markets [7][49] Group 2 - Last week, global liquidity showed signs of tightening, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance and not lowering interest rates, reflecting increased uncertainty in economic outlook [6][62] - The market expectations for interest rate changes have shifted, with the implied rate showing a decrease in anticipated Fed rate cuts from 2.6 to 2.5 times this year [62][66] - Long-term bond yields in major economies, including Germany and Japan, increased, indicating a tightening of liquidity conditions [62][70] Group 3 - Economic expectations improved globally due to easing tariff impacts, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rising from -12.9 to -5.8, and for Europe from -4.2 to 10.6 [5][87] - China's Economic Surprise Index reached its highest level since May 2023, benefiting from policy support and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [5][87] - The US job market remains resilient, with non-farm payrolls adding 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding market expectations [76][78]

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 2025 年 05 月 12 日 关税缓和出口汇率趋升，提振内需迎来关键机遇 ——《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》点评 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 中美日内瓦经贸会谈获得明显积极进展，美对华加征关税阶段性大幅下 降，且双方同意建立持续磋商机制。据今日刚刚公布的中美日内瓦经贸会谈联 合声明，中美两国政府就缓和当前的经贸紧张关系达成初步的一致观点，其中 美方承诺取消根据 2025 年 4 月 8 日第 14259 号行政令和 2025 年 4 月 9 日第 14266 号行政令对中国商品加征的共计 91%的关税，并将 4 月 2 日行政令中对 华加征 34%的所谓"对等关税"修改为"其中，24%的关税在初始的 90 天内 暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余 10%的关税"。我 国也承诺对应降低关税反制措施强度。在大幅降低关税的基础上，双方将建立 机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商。这一明确的联合声明意味着本轮美国发起的 关税战迎来趋于缓和的明确拐点。 相关报告 1、提振消费，加大投放，疏通利率，稳定汇率— —货币政策执行报告（25Q1）解读——2025.05.10 2、核心 C ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side factors are driving up prices for rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on tariff easing and opportunities in military new materials [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in rare earths due to export restrictions and the expected recovery of new materials companies as tariff concerns ease [7][11] - The military new materials sector is expected to see increased production in the second quarter due to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly following recent conflicts between India and Pakistan [12] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price increases for rare earths include a 4.19% rise in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 423,000 CNY/ton, a 2.17% increase in dysprosium oxide to 1,645,000 CNY/ton, and a 4.51% rise in terbium oxide to 7,075,000 CNY/ton [6][15] - The report notes that the export restrictions imposed by China on seven types of medium and heavy rare earth products have led to significant price increases in overseas markets, with dysprosium prices in Europe rising from 250-310 USD/kg to 700-1000 USD/kg (an increase of 204%) [6][10] - Recommendations for investment include companies such as Guangxi Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices have seen a 3.57% increase in molybdenum concentrate to 3,485 CNY/ton and a 2.26% rise in molybdenum iron (Mo60) to 226,000 CNY/ton [22] - The report indicates strong support from raw material costs and active bidding from steel mills, although the sustainability of demand needs further observation [22] Tungsten - Tungsten prices have increased recently, with black tungsten concentrate rising 3.40% to 152,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate increasing 3.24% to 223,000 CNY/ton [25] - The report notes a slight contraction in supply and stable demand, with new applications in photovoltaic cutting and robotics potentially expanding demand [25] Tin - Tin prices have shown weakness, with SHFE tin down 1.26% to 259,500 CNY/ton and LME tin down 1.11% to 31,700 USD/ton [36] - Supply issues due to low operating rates in refining enterprises and weak demand from the electronics sector are contributing to price fluctuations [36] Antimony - Antimony prices have remained stable, with antimony ingot prices down 1.05% to 235,000 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices stable at 202,500 CNY/ton [45] - The report highlights marginal improvements in supply but weak demand in certain sectors [45] New Materials - Expectations for tariff easing are rising, with a focus on new materials companies that have high export exposure, which may see recovery as tariff concerns diminish [11] - The military new materials sector is expected to benefit from increased production due to geopolitical tensions, with companies like Western Superconducting and Tunan Co. being highlighted for potential investment [12]

5 月，观望期：出口链修复，不宜过度乐观 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 关税缓和预期持续定价，风险偏好回升短期有较强的天花板效应。下一阶段，最大的 隐含风险在于美国通胀压力飙升，美联储降息预期落空对权益资产形成二次冲击。 ❑ 过去一周市场交易主线是什么？ 关税缓和，美降息预期下修。市场过去一周核心交易关税预期缓和下的风险偏好 回暖，对于降息等政策也提前有所定价。其中，出口链对应的机械、汽车、家电 持续走强，TMT 板块也有所修复。需要注意的是，降息落地后行情上行动力明 显减弱，短期无利好催化预期，且在逆全球化大框架下，风险偏好天花板较低。 此外，对美出口持续下行，义乌小商品出口价格指数大幅飙升，美国输入性通胀 逻辑持续演绎，5 月美国通胀数据超预期飙升仍将是接下来最大风险点。 ❑ 如何理解公募新规对行情的事件性冲击？ 3 万亿公募持仓再平衡不容小觑。公募新规后，由于监管对业绩比较基准较为看 重，未来主动权益基金可能逐步变为类指数增强产品，不会相对基准有过大偏 移。那么，目前公募相较市场超配较多的行业面临持续卖出压力，而低配较多的 行业则有资金回补需求。截至 5 月 8 日，目前市场低配较多的行业包括非银、银 行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Jiao coal: Oscillating weakly in the short - term [1] - Coke: Oscillating in the short - term [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the domestic market's risk appetite is expected to rise due to the release of goodwill signals in tariff negotiations, and the decline caused by risk - aversion before the holiday is expected to be compensated [3]. - The coal - coke industry has different situations. For coking coal, the spot is under pressure, and the upstream inventory pressure is high. After the delivery game of the 05 contract ends, it will return to trading based on supply - demand expectations. For coke, the second round of spot price increase faces obstacles, but there is support for demand. In the context of the expected policy of reducing crude steel production this year, the steel industry's performance is expected to strengthen, which may drive the repair of the industrial chain's profits [4]. - It is recommended to continue holding long positions in J09 in the short - term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The supply shows a narrow - range oscillation. The operating rate of 110 coal - washing plants is 61.9% (- 0.8), showing a slight decline. The demand continues to rise. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.41% (+ 0.42) [1]. Inventory - Upstream mines are accumulating inventory, with the refined coal inventory of 523 mines at 333.34 million tons (- 2.17) and the raw coal inventory at 516.78 million tons (+ 12.28). The refined coal inventory of coal - washing plants is 181.33 million tons (- 11.63). Downstream, the inventory of 247 steel mills is 784.23 million tons (+ 4.6), and the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 829.86 million tons (+ 15.14). The port inventory is 337.38 million tons (- 11.54) [2]. Spot Price and Spread - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 1040 yuan/ton (- 0), and the price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port is 1380 yuan/ton (- 0). The September contract is reported at 956 yuan/ton (- 6.5). The basis is 104 yuan/ton (+ 6.5), and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 63.5 yuan/ton (+ 15) [1]. Coke Supply and Demand - The supply increases, with the production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises at 73.41% (+ 0.42). The demand reaches its peak. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.15% (- 0.04), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4012 million tons (- 0.1) [2]. Inventory - The middle - and upper - reaches are accumulating inventory. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 67.96 million tons (+ 2.06), and the port inventory is 246.1 million tons (+ 13.01). The downstream is reducing inventory, with the inventory of 247 steel mills at 664.4 million tons (- 3.59) [2]. Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is 1440 yuan/ton (+ 0). After the first - round price increase is implemented, there is an expectation of a second - round increase. The September contract is reported at 1590.5 yuan/ton (- 4.5). The basis is - 40.28 yuan/ton (+ 4.5), and the 5 - 9 month spread is 1.5 yuan/ton (+ 5.5) [2].

具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： 在关注黄金走势之余，再让我们来看一下铂金价格。以六福为例，今日黄金饰品价格小跌，铂金饰品报价402元/克，微跌1 元/克。如果大家还想知道其他金店的铂金报价，欢迎在评论区留言告知，小金将及时收集整理并为您更新。 黄金回收市场走势与金店金价走势一样，今日金店黄金回收价格下跌6.3元/克。同时，每个品牌的回收价格也不一样，小金 大致整理了几个，详见下表，数据仅供参考： | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览(2025年4月27日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 780. 00 | 元/克 | | 菜直黄金 | 777.70 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 775.30 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 779.70 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 785.30 | 元/克 | 说完实物黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 4月27日国内金价快报：各大金店价格有所下跌，跌幅不是很大，在10元/克左右。周大福等金店虽有下跌，价格还是最高的 那一批，最新标价1028元/克。菜百黄金也是出现下跌，目前暂报10 ...