Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the healthcare services industry [6]. Core Insights - The easing of tariffs between China and the U.S. is expected to lead to a valuation recovery for the CXO sector, which has been under pressure due to previous tariff escalations [2]. - The tariff relief is anticipated to lower production costs for medical devices, enhancing competitiveness in overseas markets, particularly in the U.S. [3]. - The report suggests that domestic companies in the medical device sector are well-positioned to capture market opportunities in the U.S. due to increased demand for cost-effective products [3]. Summary by Sections CXO Sector - The impact of U.S.-China tariffs on the CXO sector is complex, with CRO services not directly affected by tariffs but facing uncertainty regarding future tariff increases [2]. - CDMO companies are also navigating complex influences, as their clients are often multinational firms with production bases outside the U.S., allowing them to mitigate tariff impacts [2]. Medical Devices - Domestic companies have made significant advancements in high-end medical equipment and diagnostics, gradually replacing imports [3]. - The tariff easing is expected to stabilize supply chain costs and improve the global market competitiveness of Chinese medical device manufacturers [3]. - There are specific opportunities in the U.S. market, particularly in price-sensitive segments and high-end equipment, where reduced tariffs could facilitate market entry [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with significant exposure to overseas CRO and CDMO markets, such as WuXi AppTec, and those with substantial U.S. sales in medical devices, like Yihua Jaye [4]. - Companies with strong international expansion capabilities, such as Aihua Long and Shengxiang Biology, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4].

摘要 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1349 篇白话财经- - 今天，在港股表现不佳的背景下，A股出现震荡，最终仅有沪指收红。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/5/13，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额为1.29万亿元，盘面上，航运港口、光伏、银行板块逆势上涨。 分析人士认为，关税的转机、国内政策对冲都是市场重新加速上行的关键因素，有望带动市场风险偏好重新上行，看好内需、贸易恢复、科技三大主线。 港股大跌原因，还能涨12%？ 虽然昨天中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》大超预期，但今天，港股市场出现下跌，恒生指数下跌1.87%，恒生科技指数下跌3.26%。 1、今天，A股三大指数震荡分化，港股大跌，航运板块逆势上涨，关税缓和信号下，利好哪些板块？ 2、外资集体看好中国市场，花旗集团将预计到2026年上半年恒生指数将达到26000点，距离现在还有12%的上涨空间。 3、 上天天基金APP搜索【777】开户即可 领98元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/5/13，不作投资推荐） 首先，是利好兑现后的获利回吐。 分析人士认为，关税谈 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant progress made in the recent China-US Geneva trade talks, which resulted in a substantial reduction or suspension of tariffs imposed after April 2, providing a strong boost to the market [1] - The sectors that are expected to benefit from the tariff reductions include electronics, IT services, software development, and machinery equipment, particularly those with high export dependence [1][2] - The Hong Kong stock market reacted positively to the announcement, with the Hang Seng Technology Index showing significant gains, indicating potential upward momentum for related sectors in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - Short-term beneficiaries of the trade talks are identified as export-oriented companies in sectors such as consumer electronics, components, machinery, and automotive parts, which are likely to show relative performance [2] - The reduction in tariff impacts is expected to improve investor risk appetite, although the short-term performance of dividend stocks may be muted [2] - In the medium term, as tariff shocks diminish, attention should be focused on the recovery of economic conditions, particularly in the AI industry, which is seen as a key growth area [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The easing of tariffs in the short - term is positive news, causing gold and silver prices to decline. With the release of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks joint statement, the temporary tax relief and reduction exceeded market expectations, leading to a continued correction in gold and silver prices. Given that the market is in a stage of expecting a cooling of tariff conflicts and there is unlikely to be a rapid interest rate cut in the short - term, gold may enter a correction phase, and silver also lacks upward momentum. However, gold still has overall support due to the decline in confidence in US dollar assets and concerns about a US recession [5]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512 are 770.30 and 776.24 respectively, with declines of - 16.02 and - 16.32, and drops of - 2.04% and - 2.06%. The current prices of Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 are 8232.00 and 8295.00 respectively, with increases of 64.00 and 63.00, and rises of 0.78% and 0.77%. The trading volumes are 169801 and 29027 for Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512, and 483540 and 24604 for Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 [2]. - **Positions**: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2506 and 2512 are 87624 and 53842, and those of Shanghai Silver 2506 and 2512 are 209420 and 116409 [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D were 785.3, 774.29, and 8150.00 respectively. The price changes were - 2.23, 4.33, and 50.00, and the percentage changes were - 0.28%, 0.56%, and 0.62% [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of the spreads between Shanghai Gold 2512 and 2506, and Shanghai Silver 2512 and 2506 are 5.94 and 63 respectively, and the previous values were 6.24 and 64 [2]. Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The current values of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver inventories are 17,238 kg and 934,459 kg, with increases of 1,590.00 kg and 2,477.00 kg compared to the previous values. The COMEX gold and silver inventories are 39,154,147 and 503,581,350, with increases of 22,864.13 and 781250 [2]. Related Market - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 100.4218, 5659.91, 4.37, 63.88, and 7.2402 respectively, with changes of - 0.21%, - 0.07%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and - 0.05% [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons. The CFTC speculators' net positions in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895, with changes of 481 and - 1451 [2]. Macro News - **Trade Policies**: The US and China agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. The UK will reduce tariffs on US goods from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US maintains a 10% uniform tariff on UK imports [3][5]. - **US Pharmaceutical Policy**: US President Trump signed an executive order requiring pharmaceutical manufacturers to lower drug prices, aiming for a price reduction of 59% - 90%, but analysts and legal experts believe it is difficult to implement [3]. - **Central Bank Statements**: A Fed governor said that Trump's tariff policy may push up inflation and drag down economic growth. European Central Bank officials said they need to be cautious about the next interest - rate move due to the high uncertainty of Trump's economic policies. Goldman Sachs adjusted the expected time of the Fed's next interest - rate cut to December, raised the forecast of the US economic growth rate in Q4 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 1%, and lowered the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 35% [3][4].

热点报告—锌 [★Ta宏bl观e_面Su：mm宏a观ry]利多阶段性出清，关税缓和递延需求走弱预期 关税缓和有几率带动锌终端需求发动新一轮抢出口，需求走弱预 期将有所递延。但即便排除关税，海外反倾销举措、买单出口等 因素依然会对锌下游出口形成压制。国内降准降息落地后，到下 一次联储降息前或存在政策真空期，宏观利多基本阶段性出清。 利多阶段性出清，基本面拐点将至 ★供应端：国内供应维持偏强释放预期 有 色 金 1Q25 海外出矿表现较好，大型项目和新项目增复产相对顺利， 部分海外炼厂进行主动减产，后续或有更多锌矿能流入国内。按 现有原料库存来估算，即便炼厂维持 4 月高位产量，矿端也难在 三季度中期前出现明显紧缺。在原料充裕和利润修复的双重支撑 下，炼厂具有较强的开工动能，预计 5 月下旬锌锭产量将有所修 复，且比价打开时间和幅度略超预期，后续或有更多进口锌流入。 属 ★需求端：内需承压预期递延而非消除 宏观来看，目前锌需求处于季节性走弱过程中。中观来看，新增 专项债实际发行规模和速度不及预期，基建实物工作量表现偏弱 且后续增量有限，关税缓和对耐用消费品的提振仍需持续观察。 微观来看，下游厂商受关税缓和刺激和担 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on May 13, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.23% at 23,494.44 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 0.29% [1] - The technology sector showed mixed performance, with robotics stocks rising collectively, and companies like UBTECH Robotics opening nearly 15% higher [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced volatility, dropping over 2% at one point, with major declines from stocks such as BYD Electronics, Meituan, NIO, Sunny Optical Technology, NetEase, and XPeng Motors [1] Group 2 - The recent joint statement from the US-China Geneva trade talks indicates a preliminary easing of trade tensions since April, potentially boosting risk appetite in the short term [2] - The temporary withdrawal of high tariffs may benefit previously suppressed export chains and technology leaders, particularly those affected by US-China geopolitical relations, with a potential valuation rebound for Hang Seng Tech constituents [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) is leading in both scale and liquidity among its peers listed in A-shares, supporting T+0 trading, and includes core AI assets and technology leaders that are relatively scarce compared to A-shares [2]

Group 1 - Global stock markets remained stable last week, with financials, consumer discretionary, and energy sectors leading the performance, indicating a general recovery in risk appetite [1][6][13] - The MSCI Global index decreased by 0.1%, with developed markets also down by 0.1%, while emerging markets saw a slight increase of 0.2% [6][13] - The Hang Seng Index's earnings forecast for 2025 was revised upward from 2195 to 2208, showing the best performance among global markets [7][49] Group 2 - Last week, global liquidity showed signs of tightening, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance and not lowering interest rates, reflecting increased uncertainty in economic outlook [6][62] - The market expectations for interest rate changes have shifted, with the implied rate showing a decrease in anticipated Fed rate cuts from 2.6 to 2.5 times this year [62][66] - Long-term bond yields in major economies, including Germany and Japan, increased, indicating a tightening of liquidity conditions [62][70] Group 3 - Economic expectations improved globally due to easing tariff impacts, with the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index for the US rising from -12.9 to -5.8, and for Europe from -4.2 to 10.6 [5][87] - China's Economic Surprise Index reached its highest level since May 2023, benefiting from policy support and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations [5][87] - The US job market remains resilient, with non-farm payrolls adding 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding market expectations [76][78]

Group 1: Trade Relations and Tariff Adjustments - The US has agreed to significantly reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, with 91% of tariffs from two specific executive orders set to be eliminated[2] - A 34% tariff on certain goods will see a 90-day suspension for 24% of it, while 10% will remain in effect[2] - This agreement marks a clear turning point in the US-China trade tensions, indicating a potential easing of the tariff war[2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The US economy is experiencing a short-term boost in domestic demand, despite a cooling GDP growth rate of 1.7 percentage points due to increased imports[3] - The current tariff adjustments are seen as a strategy to buy time for restructuring the US domestic supply chain, rather than a permanent shift in trade policy[3] - China's exports are expected to benefit from the reduced tariff intensity, with April exports showing a strong year-on-year increase of 8.1%[3] Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - Following the trade talks, both the US dollar and the Chinese yuan experienced a rare simultaneous appreciation, with the dollar index rising by over 1% and the yuan strengthening by nearly 0.5% to around 7.21[3] - The easing of tariffs is anticipated to enhance the activity of China's external production chains and provide more space for key exports to the US[3] Group 4: Long-term Considerations - Despite the current easing, the long-term strategic intent of the US to reshape global supply chains remains, indicating that tariff fluctuations may continue[3] - It is recommended that China leverage the current favorable conditions to stabilize the real estate market and boost domestic consumption, preparing for potential future changes in the tariff environment[3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side factors are driving up prices for rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on tariff easing and opportunities in military new materials [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in rare earths due to export restrictions and the expected recovery of new materials companies as tariff concerns ease [7][11] - The military new materials sector is expected to see increased production in the second quarter due to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly following recent conflicts between India and Pakistan [12] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price increases for rare earths include a 4.19% rise in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 423,000 CNY/ton, a 2.17% increase in dysprosium oxide to 1,645,000 CNY/ton, and a 4.51% rise in terbium oxide to 7,075,000 CNY/ton [6][15] - The report notes that the export restrictions imposed by China on seven types of medium and heavy rare earth products have led to significant price increases in overseas markets, with dysprosium prices in Europe rising from 250-310 USD/kg to 700-1000 USD/kg (an increase of 204%) [6][10] - Recommendations for investment include companies such as Guangxi Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices have seen a 3.57% increase in molybdenum concentrate to 3,485 CNY/ton and a 2.26% rise in molybdenum iron (Mo60) to 226,000 CNY/ton [22] - The report indicates strong support from raw material costs and active bidding from steel mills, although the sustainability of demand needs further observation [22] Tungsten - Tungsten prices have increased recently, with black tungsten concentrate rising 3.40% to 152,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate increasing 3.24% to 223,000 CNY/ton [25] - The report notes a slight contraction in supply and stable demand, with new applications in photovoltaic cutting and robotics potentially expanding demand [25] Tin - Tin prices have shown weakness, with SHFE tin down 1.26% to 259,500 CNY/ton and LME tin down 1.11% to 31,700 USD/ton [36] - Supply issues due to low operating rates in refining enterprises and weak demand from the electronics sector are contributing to price fluctuations [36] Antimony - Antimony prices have remained stable, with antimony ingot prices down 1.05% to 235,000 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices stable at 202,500 CNY/ton [45] - The report highlights marginal improvements in supply but weak demand in certain sectors [45] New Materials - Expectations for tariff easing are rising, with a focus on new materials companies that have high export exposure, which may see recovery as tariff concerns diminish [11] - The military new materials sector is expected to benefit from increased production due to geopolitical tensions, with companies like Western Superconducting and Tunan Co. being highlighted for potential investment [12]

5 月，观望期：出口链修复，不宜过度乐观 ——主动量化周报 核心观点 关税缓和预期持续定价，风险偏好回升短期有较强的天花板效应。下一阶段，最大的 隐含风险在于美国通胀压力飙升，美联储降息预期落空对权益资产形成二次冲击。 ❑ 过去一周市场交易主线是什么？ 关税缓和，美降息预期下修。市场过去一周核心交易关税预期缓和下的风险偏好 回暖，对于降息等政策也提前有所定价。其中，出口链对应的机械、汽车、家电 持续走强，TMT 板块也有所修复。需要注意的是，降息落地后行情上行动力明 显减弱，短期无利好催化预期，且在逆全球化大框架下，风险偏好天花板较低。 此外，对美出口持续下行，义乌小商品出口价格指数大幅飙升，美国输入性通胀 逻辑持续演绎，5 月美国通胀数据超预期飙升仍将是接下来最大风险点。 ❑ 如何理解公募新规对行情的事件性冲击？ 3 万亿公募持仓再平衡不容小觑。公募新规后，由于监管对业绩比较基准较为看 重，未来主动权益基金可能逐步变为类指数增强产品，不会相对基准有过大偏 移。那么，目前公募相较市场超配较多的行业面临持续卖出压力，而低配较多的 行业则有资金回补需求。截至 5 月 8 日，目前市场低配较多的行业包括非银、银 行 ...