每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 消息面上，2025年6月23日稀土市场报告显示，氧化物产品价格普遍上涨，分离企业对后市持乐观 态度。6月25日五矿证券研报指出，战略小金属因资源稀缺性和新能源等下游需求增长，价格中枢持续 上行，具备资源和技术优势的企业受益显著。 平安证券指出，有色金属行业景气有望从以黄金为代表的贵金属向以铜为代表的工业金属扩散。金 融属性方面，弱美元周期开启，海外宽松环境持续，有色商品价格中枢有望受益上移；货币属性方面， 海外地缘问题未解，黄金等贵金属仍有配置价值；商品属性方面，中期供给受限持续予以铜等工业金属 支撑。2025Q1有色金属行业营收同比增长7.9%，净利润同比大幅增长68.2%，资本开支同比下滑7.3%， 行业盈利边际改善显著。 有色60ETF跟踪的是中证有色指数，该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，从沪深市场中选取有色金属 行 ...

截至2025年6月27日 09:32，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)强势上涨1.45%，成分股北方铜业(000737)上 涨6.08%，雅化集团(002497)上涨5.12%，创新新材(600361)上涨4.71%，天齐锂业(002466)，赣锋锂业 (002460)等个股跟涨。有色ETF基金(159880)上涨1.60%， 冲击4连涨。最新价报1.14元。 事件：美国重磅宏观数据公布，一季度GDP终值超预期下调至-0.5%，同时续请失业救济人数升至21年 11月以来最高水平。近期，鲍威尔曾释放提前降息预期，今晚经济萎缩和就业疲软数据下宽松预期升 温，可能的超预期降息一方面深化弱美元叙事，另一方面有望扭转需求预期进而触发补库，为铜价上行 提供进一步动力。 除了今晚的宏观数据，我们认为铜价向上突破还有以下几个原因：一是美元走弱并且趋势向下，美元指 数跌至2022年初以来的最低水平；二是高盛232关税报告预计9月25%铜关税将落地，市场对关税重演的 风险有所低估；三是LME低库存可能触发逼仓，LME铜库存从年初以来持续下滑，目前不足10万吨， 通过伦铜逼仓或触发补库行情。近日LME临时修改条款，要求近月持仓 ...

东吴策略 三根阳线后，市场展望 20250625 摘要 市场情绪显著转为乐观，投资者仓位普遍偏低，对 3,500 甚至 3,600 点 抱有期待，但这种情绪转变更多源于仓位结构而非基本面。 上证指数波动率创新低预示着市场波动即将增加，中东局势缓和、美联 储降息预期及阅兵等因素共同推动了近期市场上涨。 金融股在近期上涨中扮演了指数助推器的角色，但其上涨空间可能有限， 后续成长股预计将占据优势，这与弱美元周期逻辑相符。 美元周期对国内市场风格切换产生重要影响，弱美元背景下成长股表现 更佳，需关注美元走势及人民币汇率对结汇数据的影响。 看好成长股行情，金融股的助推作用可能接近尾声，泛科技板块如 AI 硬 件、机器人、固态电池、脑机接口和数字货币等有望轮动表现。 军工板块具备持续性基础，若能突破前高将吸引资金追入，可能贯穿 7 月份行情，建议低仓位者适当增仓，高仓位者继续持有。 创新药和新消费板块短期内表现可能不佳，不建议追逐，而地产和周期 性行业如煤炭、钢铁等处于底部，若有政策催化剂可能迎来上涨。 Q&A 最近市场情绪变化的主要原因是什么？ 最近市场情绪变化主要源于几个因素。首先，上周内地和香港的机构投资者普 遍持 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - The recent rebound of the US dollar does not indicate a trend reversal, but rather a short-term reaction to geopolitical tensions and market conditions[6] - The dollar's rebound began on June 13, following Israeli attacks, but has limited sustainability due to unchanged oil supply levels from Iran, which increased exports by 44% to an average of 2.33 million barrels per day[17] - The market is currently experiencing crowded trades against the dollar, but this does not guarantee a reversal; the crowded short positions may face pressure if unexpected events occur[28] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with market expectations fully pricing in two rate cuts for 2025[39] - Economic growth forecasts have been revised down, with 2025 and 2026 GDP growth expected at 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, while unemployment rates are projected to rise to 4.5%[45] - Inflation expectations have been adjusted upwards, with the PCE inflation forecast for 2025 set at 3%[45] Group 3: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index saw a slight decline of 0.15% during the week of June 14-21, while the Nasdaq increased by 0.21%[31] - Oil prices rose by 2.09% during the same week, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[31] - The risk premium for US stocks remains low, indicating potential vulnerability to rising interest rates and declining economic fundamentals[20]

Group 1: Market Trends - The recent rebound of the US dollar does not indicate a trend reversal but rather a short-term reaction to geopolitical tensions and market conditions[6] - The dollar's rebound began on June 13, following the Israeli attacks, but has limited sustainability due to unchanged oil supply levels[12] - The market is currently experiencing crowded trades against the dollar, which may lead to short-term pressure on previously leading currencies and markets like Europe and Japan[21] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US economy shows resilience, with GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 adjusted to 1.4% and 1.6% respectively, while unemployment rates are projected to rise to 4.5%[31] - Inflation expectations have been revised upwards, with PCE inflation projected at 3.0% for 2025, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[31] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% during the June meeting, with market expectations for two rate cuts by the end of the year[28] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, have contributed to market volatility and risk premiums in oil prices, with a $10 premium observed in crude oil prices[12] - The geopolitical landscape remains uncertain, impacting risk appetite and commodity prices, necessitating close monitoring of developments[39]

截至2025年6月24日 10:07，创业板50指数强势上涨1.87%，成分股指南针上涨9.95%，同花顺上涨4.26%，东方财富上涨3.58%，神州泰岳、中科创达等个股 跟涨。创业板50ETF嘉实(159373)上涨1.89%。 | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 涨跌幅 | 权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300750 | 宁德时代 | 2.44% | 25.88% | | 300059 | 东方财富 | 3.58% | 11.23% | | 300124 | 汇川技术 | 2.18% | 5.08% | | 300760 | 迈瑞医疗 | 0.32% | 5.00% | | 300274 | 阳光电源 | 1.49% | 3.99% | | 300308 | 中际旭创 | 0.09% | 3.37% | | 300502 | 新易盛 | 0.48% | 2.46% | | 300014 | 亿纬锂能 | 0.11% | 2.37% | | 300015 | 爱尔眼科 | 1.09% | 2.29% | | 300033 | 同花顺 | 4.26% | 2.27% | 国家统 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期货涨跌互现，黑色系多数收涨 ——中信期货晨报20250623 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 3773.6 | 0.20% | -0.27% | 0.58% | -1.83% | -3.76% | 航运 | 集运欧线 | 1890 | -6. ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the A-share market in the context of a weakening US dollar cycle and its implications for various sectors and policies [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Weak Dollar Cycle**: The weakening of the US dollar is becoming evident, influenced by multiple factors including the expanding US fiscal deficit, which is projected to worsen to 7% by 2026. This trend is expected to positively impact the A-share market [1][2]. 2. **A-share Market Performance**: Historically, during weak dollar periods, the A-share market has shown strong performance, particularly in consumer sectors, with significant gains in non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and finance [1][4]. 3. **New Policy Cycle**: Since September 2024, several favorable policies have been introduced, including guidelines for medium- and long-term funding and new regulations for mergers and acquisitions, which are expected to support financial asset prices [1][5]. 4. **Global Liquidity Impact**: The global liquidity easing cycle has a significant effect on the A-share market. The period from 2019 to 2021 saw a bull market driven by global liquidity, while a shift to negative liquidity in 2022 led to a bear market [1][6]. 5. **Current Monetary Policy Trends**: The global monetary policy remains accommodative, with expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The European Central Bank has also been aggressive in its rate cuts, while the People's Bank of China is expected to follow suit [1][7]. 6. **Foreign Investment Sentiment**: There has been a notable shift in foreign investment sentiment from bearish to bullish regarding Chinese assets, driven by confidence in China's fiscal and monetary policies and the rise of Chinese technological hard assets [1][3][8][9]. 7. **Market Expectations and Catalysts**: The market is currently facing pessimistic expectations regarding export demand and economic deflation. However, potential positive influences include structural fiscal policies and a possible resolution of the US-China trade conflict [1][10][11]. 8. **Market Trends and Performance**: The A-share market is expected to experience a period of volatility followed by upward movement, supported by the weak dollar trend, policy support, and overall liquidity improvement [1][12]. 9. **Key Catalysts for Market Breakthrough**: For the market to break through current resistance levels, key catalysts such as unexpected improvements in global fundamentals, domestic policy implementation, and breakthroughs in emerging industries are necessary [1][13]. 10. **Long-term Outlook**: The long-term outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic, with a projected annualized return of 8.64% over the next three years. A strategic allocation of 60% in equity assets is recommended [1][14][15]. 11. **Investment Focus Areas**: Key investment areas for the second half of the year include artificial intelligence, humanoid robots, innovative pharmaceuticals, and the rise of new consumer trends [1][16]. Additional Important Content - The call emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving geopolitical landscape, particularly the US-China trade relations, as it could significantly impact market dynamics and investor sentiment [1][3][11].

中信建投指出，下半年确定性的弱美元趋势、资本市场政策支持和流动性环境整体性改善， 有望推动A股震荡中枢持续上移，全球基本面超预期改善、国内增量政策落地和新兴产业发展 则有望成为市场向上的关键催化。 本期编辑 刘雪莹 A股或迎创新药企上市潮 事关A股！吴清最新宣布 央行8项金融政策，释放哪些新信号？ SFC 21君荐读 板块方面，能源设备、石油天然气行业指数逆市走强。 6月19日午后，指数持续走弱，截至14:41，上证指数跌超0.9%，深证成指、创业板指、北证 50指数均跌超1%，全市共4751只个股下跌。 来 源 | 2 1财经客户端综合自2 1投资情报、Wi n d 近期市场波动加大，国泰海通证券认为，回调后风险逐步释放，市场仍或区间震荡，配置继 续两端走。配置上维持哑铃策略，大盘配置红利价值等高质量资产，小盘配置科技量化等交 易型资产。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 地缘冲突加剧，油、金价表现偏强 ——中信期货晨报20250616 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 五 所 中 功 演 大 用 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | | 沪深300期货 | 3856.4 | -0.70% | 0.03% | 0.89% | -0.06% | 3 1654 | | 股指 | 上证50期货 | 2665.2 | -0.63 % | -03349 | -0.07% | -0.03% | -0.48% | | | 中证500期货 | 5729 | -0.88% | 0.06% | 180% | -1 56 ...