1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for different metals are as follows: copper - oscillating strongly; alumina - short - term oscillating weakly; aluminum - short - term oscillating, medium - term expected to move up; aluminum alloy - short - term oscillating, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 expected to rise later; zinc - oscillating; lead - oscillating strongly; nickel - oscillating weakly; stainless steel - oscillating; tin - oscillating [8][10][15][18][19][20][23][25][26][27] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The US dollar remains weak, and base metals are still expected to strengthen. Weak US dollar and supply disruptions support prices, but weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the short to medium term, base metals are expected to maintain an oscillating upward pattern. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support metal prices [3] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1行情观点 (Market Views) 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: The US dollar index oscillates at a low level, and copper prices operate at a high level. It is expected to be oscillating strongly [8] - **Analysis**: US non - farm employment in August was far lower than expected; a mine in Indonesia suspended operations; August copper production decreased slightly month - on - month; spot copper premiums declined; copper inventory increased; a policy led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; August US CPI rose [8][9] - **Logic**: The low - level US dollar index supports copper prices. Supply is disrupted by mine accidents and policy - induced production cuts. Demand is in the peak season, but inventory reduction is not obvious. If inventory drops, copper prices may strengthen [9] 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: The weak fundamentals have not improved significantly, and alumina prices are under pressure to fall. It is expected to be oscillating [10] - **Analysis**: Alumina spot prices in different regions declined; an aluminum plant's bid price for alumina decreased; there was a strike warning in a Guinean aluminum - bauxite enterprise; a Guinean company had a strong复产 expectation; there was an overseas alumina transaction; alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10][11][13] - **Logic**: Macro sentiment affects prices. Fundamentally, refinery profits have shrunk, production capacity is at a new high, supply is in excess, and imports may increase, so prices are under pressure [14] 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Pay attention to the demand quality, and aluminum prices oscillate. Short - term consumption and inventory turning points need to be observed, and the medium - term center is expected to move up [15][16] - **Analysis**: Aluminum prices declined slightly; inventory continued to accumulate; a policy on new energy power was released; a company planned to replace and build an electrolytic aluminum project [15] - **Logic**: Short - term interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar is weak. Supply capacity is high, demand is expected to improve, but the inventory reduction turning point is not clear, so prices oscillate [15] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: As the first warehouse receipt registration approaches, the futures price oscillates. ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to rise later, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be considered [18] - **Analysis**: Aluminum alloy prices declined; relevant policies on margin and export tax were introduced; a company extended its product line [16][17][18] - **Logic**: The cost of scrap aluminum supports prices. Supply and demand are both marginally improving, and inventory is accumulating. The AD - AL spread is expected to rise [18] 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and zinc prices oscillate. In the long - term, there is room for prices to fall [20] - **Analysis**: Spot zinc discounts remained stable; zinc inventory increased; the import zinc concentrate processing fee was determined [19] - **Logic**: The US labor market is weak, and the US dollar is under pressure. Zinc supply is loose, demand is average, and the market is in excess. With the expectation of Fed rate cuts, zinc prices oscillate in the short term [20] 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: Recycled lead supply decreases, and lead prices oscillate strongly [20] - **Analysis**: Scrap battery prices were stable; lead prices were stable; lead inventory increased due to delivery and is expected to fall after delivery; downstream consumption is in the transition period, and battery factory operating rates are high [20][21][22] - **Logic**: Spot premiums are stable, supply is reduced by policy - induced production cuts, and demand is stable. The supply - demand gap may continue, so prices are oscillating strongly [22][23] 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: LME nickel inventory increased significantly, and nickel prices oscillate weakly [24] - **Analysis**: LME nickel inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased slightly; high - nickel pig iron prices were stable; an Indonesian mine was not significantly affected by an incident; a company completed a nickel - mine acquisition [23][24] - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening, with increased inventory and weak price support, so prices oscillate weakly [25] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: Nickel - iron prices are stable, and stainless steel prices operate weakly. It is expected to oscillate [26] - **Analysis**: Stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased; spot premiums were stable; nickel - iron prices were stable; August stainless steel production increased; inventory decreased slightly [26] - **Logic**: Nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices are stable. Production has recovered, and inventory pressure has eased. Attention should be paid to demand during the peak season [26] 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: Raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices oscillate at a high level [27] - **Analysis**: LME and SHFE tin warehouse receipts changed; spot tin prices declined; the复产 of a mine in Wa State was slow; Indonesian exports will gradually return to normal; African tin production is unstable; domestic tin concentrate processing fees are low, and production rates are falling; tin inventory has increased [27] - **Logic**: Supply is tight, which supports prices. However, terminal demand has weakened, and inventory has increased, so upward momentum is limited [27] 3.2行情监测 (Market Monitoring) - The report lists different metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin, but no specific monitoring content is provided in the given text [30][44][56][69][82][95][109][124][136] 3.3商品指数 (Commodity Indexes) - On September 17, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2245.98 (- 0.33%), the commodity 20 index was 2515.59 (- 0.45%), and the industrial products index was 2270.66 (+ 0.04%). The non - ferrous metals index was 2396.21, with a daily decline of 0.39%, a 5 - day increase of 0.38%, a 1 - month increase of 1.19%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.81% [155][157]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing depreciation of the US dollar in 2023, attributing it to various factors including high US fiscal deficits, changes in Federal Reserve policies, and concerns over the safety of dollar assets, leading to a shift in global capital flows towards emerging markets, particularly Chinese assets [3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for the Weak Dollar - Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve's independence and promotion of reciprocal tariffs has triggered a crisis of confidence in the dollar, undermining its institutional trust [5]. - The "weak dollar" policy is a strategic tool for Trump to stimulate manufacturing and export competitiveness, sacrificing some short-term dollar credibility for long-term goals [5]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" has become mainstream, with significant increases in foreign exchange derivatives hedging demand and a rise in dollar short positions among global investors [6][7]. Group 2: Impact of Weak Dollar on Emerging Markets - Historical data shows that during periods of dollar depreciation, emerging markets, including China, tend to perform well, indicating a negative correlation between the dollar index and emerging market indices [13][15]. - The A-share market benefits from a relatively stable or appreciating RMB during weak dollar periods, attracting foreign capital inflows [15][18]. Group 3: Investment Themes in a Weak Dollar Environment - Investment opportunities in Chinese assets include: - Technology growth assets, which are expected to gain value during weak dollar periods, with a focus on long-term growth and scarcity [20]. - Hong Kong stocks, benefiting from global liquidity and domestic profit improvements [20]. - Dividend and low-valuation sectors such as banking and insurance, which are attractive in a high-low market switch [20]. - Funds related to physical assets like copper, gold, and oil, which are prioritized during weak dollar cycles [20]. - Overall, the weak dollar represents not only a current market reality but also a long-term logic for global capital reallocation and institutional credit reassessment, with Chinese assets showing strong appeal due to solid fundamentals and low valuations [21].

Core Viewpoint - On September 11, the A-share market saw a significant inflow of funds into stock ETFs, totaling 15.611 billion yuan, indicating a strong market sentiment and investment interest in various sectors [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Fund Flows - The total scale of all stock ETFs in the market reached 4.32 trillion yuan as of September 11, with a net inflow of 15.611 billion yuan on that day [5]. - The Hong Kong market ETFs led the inflow, attracting 7.359 billion yuan, particularly in the innovative drug sector, which saw significant buying activity despite a market downturn [6]. - The broad-based ETFs also experienced substantial inflows, totaling 5.396 billion yuan, with the ETF tracking the CSI A500 index receiving 2.524 billion yuan [6]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The innovative drug ETFs from GF Fund and Yinhua Fund saw net inflows of 2.297 billion yuan and 1.051 billion yuan, respectively, despite the sector facing a downturn [6][8]. - The battery sector also attracted significant investment, with GF Fund's battery ETF receiving a net inflow of 507 million yuan, making it the largest in the market with a total scale of 9.952 billion yuan [7][9]. - The brokerage sector, referred to as the "bull market flag bearer," saw multiple securities ETFs achieve net inflows, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect non-bank ETF accumulating over 1 billion yuan in net buying this week [6][9]. Group 3: Outflows and Market Trends - The ChiNext 50 ETF experienced the largest outflow, totaling 2.122 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment away from this sector [10][11]. - Other sectors facing outflows included photovoltaic, semiconductor, and artificial intelligence ETFs, reflecting a broader trend of profit-taking in these areas [12]. - Looking ahead, the easing liquidity environment is expected to support A-share valuations, with potential benefits for cyclical core assets like the CSI 300 and CSI A500 indices [13].

Group 1: Institutional Funds - Institutional funds are showing collaborative strength with significant growth in various sectors. Public funds saw a notable increase in new stock fund issuance in July, with the number and scale rising by 32.8% and 97.5% respectively compared to June. The second quarter saw major increases in holdings in the banking and TMT sectors [4][9][10] - Private equity funds also experienced a surge, with 1,591 new stock private equity funds launched in July, marking a 20.7% increase from June. The stock position has risen for three consecutive months, reaching 62.8% in July [4][15] - Insurance funds accelerated their market entry, with a net inflow of over 640 billion yuan into A-shares in the first half of the year. The allocation to stocks reached 3.1 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.5 trillion yuan in Q2 [4][20][21] Group 2: Retail Investors - Retail investor activity has increased, with 265,000 new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in August, a 35% increase from July. However, this remains moderate compared to the peak in October 2024 [4][31] - The margin financing balance reached 2.2 trillion yuan, surpassing the 2015 high, but the overall leverage ratio remains healthy at 2.4% of the A-share market capitalization [4][31] Group 3: Foreign Capital - Foreign capital is returning to A-shares, with over 100 billion yuan flowing back in Q2 2025. From August 14 to August 20, foreign capital saw a net inflow of 6.98 billion yuan, marking a shift towards net inflows for the first time since mid-October 2024 [4][6] - The foreign capital primarily increased holdings in defensive assets with stable cash flows, such as finance and public utilities, as well as high-growth sectors like communication and biomedicine [4][6] Group 4: Market Outlook - The mid-term outlook for A-shares indicates a continued emphasis on high-quality equity allocation. Despite short-term volatility, the accumulation of positive factors in the industry and the ongoing policy implementation suggest a favorable environment for investment [4][6] - Key investment themes include the AI industry chain, advanced manufacturing sectors with international competitiveness, and new consumption areas benefiting from domestic policy support [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US macro - fundamentals are relatively stable, but the political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, boosting market expectations of interest rate cuts. At the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in August, Powell's dovish stance exceeded market expectations. On August 25, Trump removed the hawkish Fed governor Cook, further increasing market expectations of interest rate cuts. Currently, the US consumer's willingness to buy real estate, cars, and household durables is fluctuating widely at a low level, and the actual salary growth of US consumers is flat. The ability of residents to consume still awaits the transmission of interest rate cuts. Loose expectations and asset revaluation are expected to have a positive feedback effect on investment and consumption, but sticky service inflation, tariff shocks, and concerns about the Fed's independence remain tail risks [8] - **Domestic Macro**: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved. "Anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Recently, demand - side policies in first - tier cities have been frequently introduced. The marginal relaxation of policies is expected to boost trading volume, but the sustainability remains to be seen. From January to July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of national industrial enterprises above the designated size narrowed to - 1.7%. "Anti - involution" has enabled the raw material processing industry to obtain a larger share of profits, while both upstream mining and downstream consumer goods industries have seen their profits squeezed. The issue of anti - involution still has a long way to go. In the real estate sector, first - tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have successively introduced policies to relax purchase restrictions and optimize provident funds. Compared with previous policies, the overall intensity of this round of policies is relatively weak. Structurally, the relaxation of new homes in the suburbs of core cities is relatively stronger, aiming to guide residents to digest the inventory of suburban new homes first, which has a marginal support for developers' liquidity [8] - **Asset Views**: Short - term market volatility may increase. After important events, China may gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel, which is expected to support the recovery of total demand and form a positive feedback between sentiment and overseas macro - fundamentals. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [8] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: For stock index futures, the chips show signs of loosening, and the short - term judgment is volatile upward. For stock index options, the strategy is mainly for hedging and defense, and the short - term judgment is volatile. For treasury bond futures, continue to pay attention to the performance of the stock market, and the short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Precious Metals**: The expansion of interest rate cut expectations is beneficial to the price. For gold and silver, it is expected that the US interest rate cut cycle may restart in September, but the impact of market risk appetite needs to be noted. The short - term judgment is volatile upward [9] - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, the peak season in the third quarter has turned dull, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile [9] - **Black Building Materials**: After the parade, there are still upward expectations for the sector. For products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc., they are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The weak US dollar continues to support non - ferrous metals, but the weakening demand also needs to be emphasized. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [9] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The weakening of crude oil supply - demand and the decline of coking coal have dragged down the chemical industry. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11] - **Agriculture**: The agricultural sector is in a high - level narrow - range volatility, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each product [11]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation after a rapid rotation, but the medium-term positive trend remains unchanged. The current rally is driven by liquidity, indicating that as long as there is no significant contraction in volume, there will be opportunities for active rotation in the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market is likely to experience a short-term consolidation phase while maintaining a structural market characteristic with significant rotation between sectors [1] - Funds are expected to continue seeking a balance between technology growth and defensive sectors, indicating a structural market behavior [1] Group 2: Sector Focus - Hard technology growth areas such as AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals are anticipated to benefit from domestic substitution and industrial upgrade dividends, leading to high-low switching within sub-sectors [1] - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September may strengthen the weak dollar environment, highlighting the investment value in precious metals [1]

Group 1: Reasons for Recent RMB Appreciation - Since August 2025, the RMB has entered a new appreciation cycle against the USD, with the spot exchange rate reaching a high of 7.12 and the midpoint touching the critical level of 7.10[2] - The contribution of the counter-cyclical factor to the RMB midpoint value since August is only 26%, indicating that the appreciation is primarily market-driven rather than policy-driven[9] - The "weak USD" backdrop has led to passive appreciation of the RMB, with the USD index declining by 9.9% since the beginning of the year, and the dollar sentiment index dropping to a historical low of around 35[10] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Capital Flows - The attractiveness of RMB assets has increased, leading to active appreciation, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3800 mark, reaching a nearly ten-year high[14] - Trade net settlement rates have risen from 23.9% in January to 54.8% in July 2025, reflecting strong demand for RMB[18] - Despite foreign capital selling approximately 420 billion RMB in bonds during June and July, the RMB did not depreciate, indicating a strategic shift by foreign investors to remain in the Chinese market[23] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The outflow of funds from the bond market is expected to slow down, as the recent wave of foreign capital reduction in RMB bonds has nearly exhausted the net inflow from the past twelve months[28] - Risks include geopolitical tensions that could accelerate capital outflows from China, and unexpected economic performance in the US that may weaken the RMB[29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Oscillating [7] - Alumina: Oscillating weakly [8] - Aluminum: Oscillating [10] - Aluminum alloy: Oscillating [13] - Zinc: Oscillating weakly [16] - Lead: Oscillating [17] - Nickel: Oscillating strongly in the short - term, waiting - and - seeing in the long - term [23] - Stainless steel: Oscillating in the short - term [24] - Tin: Oscillating [25] 2. Report's Core View - Overall non - ferrous metals: Weak US dollar and the fermentation of reverse invoicing issues are driving up the prices of basic metals. In the medium and short - term, prices are supported but the weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions support prices [1]. - Copper: Macro factors and supply disruptions support prices, and low inventory also provides support, but the US copper tariff is a negative factor [7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, with strong inventory accumulation trends, but short - term supply fluctuations and long - term mine disturbances need attention [9]. - Aluminum: Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are neutral. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and inventory and consumption need to be observed [12]. - Aluminum alloy: The cost is supported, supply is reduced, demand is rigid, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13]. - Zinc: The fundamentals are in surplus, and prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. - Lead: Supply and demand are basically balanced this week, but the release of smelter inventory after the events may pressure prices, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Nickel: The market expects Indonesia's RKAB approval soon, so the price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, and the industry needs to observe the raw material and macro factors [23]. - Stainless steel: The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the implementation of the peak season and inventory changes need attention [24]. - Tin: The supply is tight, providing a strong bottom support, but the terminal demand is weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate [25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - Information analysis: The Fed may cut interest rates, US GDP growth is better than expected, copper production has decreased, the spot premium has declined, and inventory has increased [7]. - Main logic: Macro factors and supply disruptions support copper prices, and low inventory also provides support, but the demand needs to be observed [7]. - Outlook: Copper may oscillate [8]. 3.2 Alumina - Information analysis: Spot prices have declined, some enterprises have reduced production due to environmental protection, and warehouse receipts have increased [8]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are weak, with strong inventory accumulation trends, but short - term supply fluctuations and long - term mine disturbances need attention [9]. - Outlook: Oscillating weakly, with opportunities for short - selling and reverse arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: The price and inventory of aluminum have changed, an Indonesian enterprise is expected to be put into production, and the performance of related listed companies has been released [10]. - Main logic: Short - term macro sentiment is volatile, and the fundamentals are neutral. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate, and inventory and consumption need to be observed [12]. - Outlook: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [12]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information analysis: The price and spread of aluminum alloy have changed, the exchange has adjusted margins and price limits, and the performance of related listed companies has been released [13]. - Main logic: The cost is supported, supply is reduced, demand is rigid, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [13]. - Outlook: Short - term prices are oscillating at a low level, and there is room for recovery and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [15]. 3.5 Zinc - Information analysis: The spot discount and inventory of zinc have increased, and a smelter will conduct maintenance [15]. - Main logic: The fundamentals are in surplus, and prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. - Outlook: Zinc prices may oscillate weakly in the long - term [16]. 3.6 Lead - Information analysis: The price, spread, and inventory of lead have changed, and the market transaction is light [16]. - Main logic: Supply and demand are basically balanced this week, but the release of smelter inventory after the events may pressure prices, and the price is expected to oscillate [19]. - Outlook: The lead price is expected to oscillate [19]. 3.7 Nickel - Information analysis: The inventory of nickel has increased, and there are many industry news items [19]. - Main logic: The market sentiment dominates the price, the industry fundamentals are weakening marginally, and short - term trading is recommended [23]. - Outlook: The nickel price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, and waiting - and - seeing in the long - term [23]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - Information analysis: The inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts has increased, and the production in Indonesia is normal [24]. - Main logic: The prices of nickel - iron and chromium - iron have changed, production has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24]. - Outlook: The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24]. 3.9 Tin - Information analysis: The inventory and price of tin have changed, and a company will conduct maintenance [25]. - Main logic: The supply is tight, providing a strong bottom support, but the terminal demand is weakening, so the price is expected to oscillate [25]. - Outlook: The tin price is expected to oscillate, and the volatility may increase [25].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar is primarily driven by a weakening dollar rather than a strong Chinese economy [2][3]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness - The US dollar has weakened due to changes in the global economic landscape, including long-term fiscal deficits and rising debt levels, with US debt surpassing $37 trillion and annual interest payments exceeding $1.2 trillion [2][3]. - Market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, following disappointing employment data, have also contributed to the dollar's decline [3]. Group 2: Renminbi Appreciation - The Renminbi's appreciation against the dollar is not indicative of a robust Chinese economy but rather a response to the global trend of a weaker dollar [3][4]. - The People's Bank of China has increased the issuance of offshore central bank bills, which helps stabilize the exchange rate and attract foreign capital [3][4]. Group 3: Trade and Investment Implications - Despite the Renminbi's appreciation against the dollar, it has depreciated against a basket of currencies, which is beneficial for China's export competitiveness [5][6]. - The potential for continued Renminbi appreciation against the dollar depends on domestic stock market performance and the trajectory of the dollar [6][7]. - For Chinese investors, the appreciation of the Renminbi may reduce the returns on US dollar-denominated assets, making it a more favorable time to invest in such assets [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In August, the risk appetite in the capital market increased, and the prices of risk assets generally rose. Overseas, the impact of tariffs in the US began to show, the disappointing non - farm payrolls data shocked the market, and the Fed's policy choices were difficult. The market generally expected a rate cut in September. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market cooled, but A - shares were strong, attracting funds, and the commodity futures market style reversed [5][75]. - The A - share market's strength is due to the change in domestic expectations. After the pessimistic expectations reversed last year, a large amount of funds flowed into the stock market. The emergence of DeepSeek and China's counter - measures in tariff negotiations strengthened market confidence [7][28]. - Weak dollar has become a relatively certain macro - factor. The rate - cut trading based on the weak dollar dominates the pricing of global risk assets [8][68]. Summary by Directory 1. Expected vs. Reality - The most notable macro - issue in August was the unexpectedly strong A - shares, which stemmed from the change in domestic expectations. Asset prices reflect investors' expectations more than the reality. The difference between macro - data and micro - feelings comes from the convergence of expectations and reality [13]. 2. US Stock "Bull" vs. Chinese Real Estate "Bear" - As core assets, the price trends of US stocks and Chinese real estate have significant wealth effects. In the past two years, the bullish US stocks and bearish Chinese real estate had opposite impacts on the two countries [16]. - In the US, the strong consumption of residents is related to the wealth effect of US stocks. In China, the real - estate slump led to residents' de - leveraging and consumption downgrade, while the stock - market strength accelerated the transfer of residents' deposits [17]. 3. Reasons for Expectation Reversal - In September 2024, the Fed started rate - cuts, and China's policy package turned the situation around. In January 2025, the emergence of DeepSeek led to the re - evaluation of Sino - US assets. In April 2025, China's counter - measures in tariff negotiations strengthened domestic confidence. In July 2025, the "anti - involution" trading dominated the domestic market [20]. 4. Underlying Logic of A - share Confidence Bull - Due to the asset shortage, along with the disillusionment of Western myths, technological breakthroughs, and cultural confidence, market confidence was boosted, expectations improved, and undervalued Chinese assets were re - evaluated. Investors adjusted their asset allocation, increasing risk assets [25]. - The strong performance of the stock market changed investors' psychology from scar effect to profit - making effect, leading to the transfer of residents' deposits from physical to financial assets [25]. 5. US 7 - month Non - farm Payrolls Data and Market Reaction - The US non - farm payrolls data in July was disappointing, with an increase of 73,000 in non - farm employment, far lower than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, and the U6 unemployment rate was 7.9%. The market reaction included a sharp decline in the dollar index, a jump in non - US currencies, a rise in gold prices, and a slight rebound in US stock index futures. Traders' expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September by the Fed increased from 45% to 75% [35][37]. 6. Trump's Intervention in the Fed - Trump removed Fed Governor Cook, and there were a series of personnel changes in the Fed. Trump's actions challenged the Fed's independence and may force the Fed to cut rates to respond to political pressure [38][39]. 7. Powell's Speech at Jackson Hole - Powell's speech signaled a possible rate cut. He pointed out that the US labor market was in a "fragile balance" with rising employment risks, economic growth slowed, inflation pressure existed, and the Fed's policy might be adjusted [41][43]. - The Fed revised its monetary policy framework, including abandoning the focus on the effective lower bound, the average inflation target system, and the "employment shortfall" wording, and emphasizing inflation expectation anchoring [59]. 8. Global Asset Performance - In August, global major stock markets mostly rose, the BDI increased slightly, the dollar fell, non - US currencies strengthened, and commodities rose more than they fell. Domestically, the A - share market was strong, and the commodity futures market style reversed [75]. 9. Domestic Futures Market Performance - In August, the domestic futures market showed a pattern of strong stocks, weak bonds, and a cooling commodity market. The four major stock indexes all rose, with the Shanghai 50 rising the least. Commodities showed mixed performance, with the Wind Commodity Index rising slightly [6][78]. 10. Commodity Index Trends - The "anti - involution" market cooled, and commodities fell from high levels. Historically, the probability of the South China Commodity Index rising in September is slightly higher, but the potential probability of a decline is also relatively high [80][83]. 11. Stock Index Performance - In August, the stock market continued to rise strongly, with all major stock indexes closing higher. The price - to - earnings ratio of the four major stock indexes increased, and the risk premium decreased, indicating an optimistic market sentiment [87]. 12. Global Economic Performance - The global economic sentiment recovered but was split. The JPMorgan Global Composite PMI rebounded, but the service and manufacturing sectors diverged. The ZEW economic sentiment index of major economies declined, while the consumer confidence index was generally strong [92]. - Inflation in major economies rebounded, with the US having a larger inflation amplitude. The inflation expectations in the bond market increased [103]. - The Fed and the Bank of Japan continued to shrink their balance sheets, the European Central Bank shifted from expanding to shrinking its balance sheet, and the People's Bank of China expanded its balance sheet again [105]. 13. US Economic Performance - The US economic sentiment cooled, inflation rebounded, the manufacturing PMI remained in the contraction range, employment was challenged, and consumer confidence was still low. The impact of tariffs on inflation began to show [111]. 14. Chinese Economic Performance - In July, China's manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activity index declined, but the overall business activities of enterprises remained in the expansion range [116]. - M2 and M1 growth rates increased, and the growth rate difference between M2 and social financing and M2 and M1 both narrowed. The growth rate of RMB loans hit a new low, and the deposit - loan gap of financial institutions widened [119]. - The recovery of M1 growth is expected to drive the start of the credit cycle, with loose financial conditions, rising inter - bank certificate of deposit rates, and a rebound in DR007 [124]. - China's export growth remained resilient, but the pressure on external demand still existed. The export price profit margin turned negative, and the market's expectations for the economic prospects were contradictory [128][130]. - Real estate investment was dragged down, with the decline rates of multiple indicators accelerating, and the high - frequency housing sales data remained sluggish [132]. - Consumption growth declined significantly, travel data was split, and residents' income growth was weak [138]. - CPI remained flat, PPI continued to decline, and the macro - profit margin (CPI - PPI) decreased. The continuation of "anti - involution" may promote domestic re - inflation [142]. 15. Mid - level Industry Performance - Steel prices rose and then fell, with stable blast - furnace operating rates; oil prices declined with inventory reduction; copper prices fluctuated at high levels with inventory accumulation; and coking coal prices rebounded from the bottom [146][147]. - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fluctuated narrowly at a historical high; domestic freight rates continued to decline, and the BDI fluctuated after an initial decline; and automobile production growth was stable [150].