华西证券指出，短期贵金属高波动或将持续。其中白银、铂金及钯金受限于流动性与市场容量，面临的 调整幅度可能较大，而黄金与有色金属虽受情绪共振波及，但预计跌幅相对可控，并有望率先企稳。鉴 于此，短期策略以防御为宜，待短期情绪宣泄完毕、市场企稳。中长期来看，美联储宽松周期开启叠 加"弱美元"格局的宏观逻辑未变，贵金属长牛基础依然稳固，若本轮出现深度调整（比如黄金调整幅度 达到10%以上），将成为极佳的逢低配置窗口。 ...

01 主要观点策略 铜周报：弱美元叠加供紧预期，铜价突破新高 2025-12-29 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 上周行情回顾 p 上周沪铜继续突破上行。截至上周五收至98720元/吨，周涨幅5.95%。宏观面，美联储政策偏宽松预期持续，弱美元支撑金属上 涨。国家发改委《大力推动传统产业优化提升》文件提出铜冶炼端的约束，铜产业反内卷情绪继续升温。嘉能可旗下铜矿工会传出罢 工可能性，加剧铜供给紧缺担忧。当前美国comex囤积的铜库存持续增加，非美地区铜供应紧张预期持续，区域性供需错配显著。宏 观面美联储宽松货币预期和产业面供给紧缺担忧继续推升铜价。 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 90000 95000 100000 105000 25-12-26 25-12-22 25-12-16 25-12-10 25-12-04 25-11-28 25-11-24 25-11-18 25-11-12 25-11-06 25-10-31 25-10-27 25-10-21 25-10-15 25-10-09 25- ...

编者按：市场从来不会"按剧本"行事，不确定性是投资中永恒的主题。巴菲特曾说："用冷静对抗市场 的狂欢。"在金属市场大涨时，投资者需以纪律性和长期视角应对市场的不确定性。期货日报推出的"破 译金属新主线"栏目，将全面梳理金属"牛市"脉络，敬请关注。 临近年末，贵金属、有色金属板块掀起涨价狂潮，铜、黄金、白银等价格接连刷新历史纪录，多晶硅、 钯、铂等新能源金属期货品种价格亦出现上涨。 笔者认为，上述期货品种年末大幅上涨的原因是弱美元预期叠加需求改善预期。 弱美元预期方面，美联储于2025年12月再次降息25个基点，并停止缩表，转而启动400亿美元的短期国 债购买计划。从缩表转向扩表，美联储的货币政策发生了根本性改变。这意味着美元将进入弱势周期， 过剩的美元有望激发溢出效应，流入新兴经济体和大宗商品市场。贵金属、有色金属板块普涨，以及国 内市场和国际市场表现同步，背后都是"弱美元"预期的驱动。 需求改善预期方面，美元走弱对应的是金价上涨，各国央行和华尔街投资人成为黄金的重要买家，进而 带动金价持续上涨。 综上所述，从需求分析，上述品种大涨的原因可归纳为三点：一是全球人工智能的发展带来了庞大的有 色金属需求，人工智能 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that silver prices have surged dramatically, breaking through $73 per ounce, marking a historical high and reflecting a significant shift in global capital sentiment [1] - Three driving factors for this surge are identified: 1) Geopolitical tensions leading to increased investment in precious metals as a safe haven 2) A weakening US dollar which alleviates pressure on dollar-denominated silver 3) Industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics and new energy, giving silver a stronger growth potential compared to gold [3][4] Group 2 - Short-term outlook suggests that after a rapid increase driven by market sentiment, there may be technical pullbacks, with the $73 level likely to see contention [5] - For aggressive investors, it is advised to use small positions and wait for a pullback to key support levels (around $70-$71) before attempting to capitalize on price movements, with a strong emphasis on setting stop-loss orders [6] - For ordinary investors, a strategy of dollar-cost averaging into silver ETFs or linked funds is recommended to smooth out costs and participate in the long-term trend, specifically during price pullbacks rather than during spikes [6] - A-share investors are encouraged to focus on two lines: companies involved in silver mining and refining, which directly benefit from rising silver prices, and companies related to industrial demand for silver, such as those producing conductive pastes for photovoltaics, as a more suitable approach compared to direct silver trading [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, the influence of a weak US dollar and supply concerns dominates. Despite the current weak consumption and relatively loose supply - demand situation, there are opportunities to go long on copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin persist. Thus, the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **View**: The weakening US dollar index leads to a strong upward movement of copper prices, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory and bullish [6]. - **Analysis**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee Benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. Chinese copper smelters plan to reduce copper ore production capacity by over 10% in 2026. In November 2025, the output of electrolytic copper in China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. As of December 22, copper inventory rose to 168,400 tons. On December 24, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the contract [6][7]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. However, supply disruptions increase, and demand is weak during the off - season, which limits the upward space of copper prices [8]. 3.2 Alumina - **View**: The cost support is weak, and the alumina price remains under pressure, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [8]. - **Analysis**: On December 24, the spot price of alumina decreased in most regions, and the alumina warehouse receipt decreased by 302 tons [8][10]. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity fluctuates, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The prices of raw materials are weak, and the cost support is limited. There is pressure on the price from the perspective of warehouse receipt digestion [9]. 3.3 Aluminum - **View**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the aluminum price will rise oscillatory, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory and bullish [12]. - **Analysis**: On December 24, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased. As of December 22, aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories changed. In November 2025, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. South32 increased the offer price of aluminum ingot premiums for Japan in Q1 2026 [12]. - **Logic**: The macro - expectation is positive. The domestic production capacity is high, and the overseas supply is expected to tighten. High aluminum prices suppress demand, and attention should be paid to future demand [13]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The cost support continues, and the price will rebound oscillatory, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory and bullish [14]. - **Analysis**: On December 24, the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 1 ton. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production [14]. - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The supply may decrease due to policies, and the demand may weaken marginally at the end of the year [14]. 3.5 Zinc - **View**: The inventory trends at home and abroad diverge, and the zinc price rebounds with non - ferrous metals, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [17]. - **Analysis**: On December 24, the spot price differentials of zinc in different regions varied. As of December 23, zinc ingot inventory increased. In November 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates increased [17]. - **Logic**: The macro - expectation is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, the zinc price may oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a possibility of decline [18]. 3.6 Lead - **View**: The lead price rebounds with non - ferrous metals, and the supply - demand situation may weaken, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [19]. - **Analysis**: On December 24, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries and lead ingots changed. As of December 22, lead ingot inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 152 tons. The implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has affected battery consumption [19]. - **Logic**: The spot premium decreases slightly, the supply may increase after maintenance, and the demand is weakening marginally [19][20]. 3.7 Nickel - **View**: The expectation of Indonesian policies causes disturbances, and the nickel price continues to rise, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [20]. - **Analysis**: On December 24, LME nickel inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore RKAB in 2026 to 250 million tons, a significant decrease from this year [22][23]. - **Logic**: The domestic nickel supply decreases marginally, but the overall supply pressure remains. The demand is in the off - season. If the Indonesian policy is implemented, the surplus expectation will decline [24]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: The rebound of the nickel price drives up the stainless - steel price, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [25]. - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel warehouse receipt decreased by 125 tons. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel ore production target in 2026 [25]. - **Logic**: The cost of stainless steel has some support. Production is expected to decline in December, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation [26][27]. 3.9 Tin - **View**: The rigid demand maintains resilience, and the tin price oscillates at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory and bullish [27]. - **Analysis**: On December 24, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt decreased. The spot price of tin decreased [27]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is a core concern. The supply is restricted in many regions. The demand is expected to increase due to the economic situation and industry development [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short - and medium - term, the influence of the weak US dollar and supply concerns dominates again. The reality of weak consumption and relatively loose supply - demand has become a secondary factor. Shanghai copper drives the base metals to break through and rise. Opportunities for going long on copper, aluminum, and tin can be continuously monitored. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and there are still supply disruptions for copper, aluminum, and tin. There are expectations of tightening supply - demand, so the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. - The weakening of the US dollar index causes copper prices to run strongly; the cost support for alumina is weak and prices remain under pressure; aluminum prices fluctuate at high levels due to inventory accumulation; the aluminum alloy market should focus on demand changes and the price fluctuates at high levels; zinc prices fluctuate at high levels with differentiated inventory trends at home and abroad; the rebound space of lead prices is limited due to the decline in the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises; nickel prices continue to rise due to the expected policy disturbances in Indonesia; the stainless - steel market is driven up by the rebound of nickel prices; high prices suppress downstream demand, and tin prices fluctuate at high levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Copper - **Information Analysis**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is 0 dollars/ton and 0 cents/pound. CSPT members will reduce copper ore production capacity by over 10% in 2026. In November 2025, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. On December 23, the 1 electrolytic copper spot was at a discount to the contract. As of December 22, copper inventory increased. LME plans to set and implement position limits for key and related contracts from July 6, 2026 [6][7]. - **Main Logic**: The loose liquidity supports copper prices. The supply of copper mines is increasingly disrupted, and the expectation of refined copper supply contraction is strengthened. The terminal demand is weak, and inventory accumulates, limiting the upward space for copper prices. The risk of LME copper cornering has temporarily weakened [8]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [8]. 2. Alumina - **Information Analysis**: On December 23, the spot price of alumina decreased. The alumina warehouse receipt decreased by 6,641 tons [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: The high - cost production capacity has fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the inventory is strongly increasing. The raw material prices are weak, and the cost support is general. The warehouse receipt is in the process of destocking, but there is pressure on the price [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Alumina is expected to fluctuate [10]. 3. Aluminum - **Information Analysis**: On December 23, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased. As of December 22, aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories changed. On December 23, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt increased. In November 2025, China's unforged aluminum and aluminum products exports changed. Some enterprises launched the "aluminum replacing copper" standard implementation, and South32 raised the aluminum ingot premium [11]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - expectation is positive. The domestic supply is high, and the overseas supply may tighten in the long - term. The high aluminum price suppresses demand, and the inventory accumulates [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - term, the price center may rise [12]. 4. Aluminum Alloy - **Information Analysis**: On December 23, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged, and the spread with AOO aluminum changed. The SHFE registered warehouse receipt remained unchanged. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production, and in October, China's scrap aluminum imports increased [13]. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is solid. The operating rate is flat, and there is a risk of production reduction. The end - of - year automobile demand may weaken, and the warehouse receipt inventory is high [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - and medium - term, prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [13]. 5. Zinc - **Information Analysis**: On December 23, the spot premium of zinc in different regions was different. As of December 23, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. In November 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports increased [15]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - outlook is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and the production of zinc ingots has decreased. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. In the short - term, zinc prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels. In the long - term, zinc prices may decline [16]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [16]. 6. Lead - **Information Analysis**: On December 23, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries and SMM1 lead ingots increased. As of December 22, the lead ingot social inventory decreased, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipt decreased. Since December, the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has affected battery consumption, and the operating rate of some enterprises has declined [17]. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt decreased. The supply decreased due to maintenance, and the demand was mixed, with the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises slightly weakening [17]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. 7. Nickel - **Information Analysis**: On December 23, LME nickel inventory increased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore pricing formula and reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target [20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The domestic nickel supply decreased in November, but the overall supply pressure still exists. The demand is in the off - season. If Indonesia's production reduction plan is implemented, the supply - demand surplus will decrease [22]. - **Outlook**: Before the policy is implemented, nickel prices may remain strong [22]. 8. Stainless Steel - **Information Analysis**: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt decreased. On December 23, the spot premium in Foshan was 45 yuan/ton. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and Indonesia plans to reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target [23]. - **Main Logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported, and the production is expected to decline in December. The inventory may accumulate, and the warehouse receipt is at a low level [24][25]. - **Outlook**: Before the Indonesian policy is implemented, stainless - steel prices may remain strong [25]. 9. Tin - **Information Analysis**: On December 23, the LME and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the SHFE tin position decreased. The spot price of tin increased [25]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is a concern. The supply from Myanmar and Indonesia has changed, and the African supply is restricted. The demand is expected to increase with the economic and industrial development [26]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [26]. 10. Market Monitoring - Commodity Index - On December 23, 2025, the comprehensive index, characteristic index, and PPI commodity index of CITIC Futures all increased. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.01% on the day, 1.68% in the past 5 days, 5.20% in the past month, and 12.37% since the beginning of the year [154][155].

Group 1 - The offshore RMB closed at 7.033, with expectations of rising below 7.0 in the coming week, potentially marking the highest exchange rate since October 2024 [1] - The appreciation of the RMB is a result of multiple economic factors, reflecting China's strategic elevation in the global economic landscape and the dynamic adjustments in the global monetary system [3] - The current macroeconomic environment presents a strategic window for RMB appreciation, driven by the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy, which has seen the federal funds rate drop from 5.5% to 3.75% [3] Group 2 - The RMB's appreciation has significant strategic value for the Chinese economy, particularly in addressing the challenge of weak domestic demand [5] - Despite external pressures like increased tariffs from the U.S., China's foreign trade remains resilient, with a trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025 [6] - The RMB's appreciation enhances purchasing power, benefiting imports and allowing consumers to access a wider range of imported goods at lower costs, thus stimulating consumption [8] Group 3 - RMB-denominated assets become more attractive to foreign investors due to valuation advantages, leading to increased capital inflows into the stock, real estate, and bond markets [9] - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to create significant value reassessment effects in asset markets [10] - While there are concerns about the impact of RMB appreciation on exports, Chinese exporters have demonstrated resilience, achieving year-on-year export growth despite tariff pressures [12] Group 4 - The export structure is undergoing a strategic upgrade, with high-value products like machinery, ships, and new energy vehicles becoming the main export drivers, capable of absorbing cost pressures from RMB appreciation [12] - Traditional labor-intensive products may face challenges, but these pressures can catalyze industry transformation towards high-tech and high-value sectors [14] - Overall, the RMB's appreciation aligns with the internal needs of China's economic transformation, enhancing import capacity, expanding consumption, optimizing asset allocation, and promoting industrial upgrades [14]

Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2026, slightly down from 3.2% in 2025, indicating a continued weak recovery trend[9] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2026, a slight increase from 2.0% in 2025, while the Eurozone and Japan are expected to see declines in growth rates[12] - The weak U.S. dollar, which fell over 8% from January to November 2025, is anticipated to continue influencing global capital reallocation in 2026[25] China Economic Growth - China's GDP is forecasted to grow by 4.7% in real terms and 4.9% in nominal terms in 2026, supported by technology and consumption sectors[1] - Fixed asset investment in China is expected to recover, with high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showing signs of improvement[31] - The retail sales of consumer goods in China grew by 4.3% year-on-year in the first ten months of 2025, indicating resilience in consumer spending[38] Asset Allocation Strategy - The recommended asset allocation for 2026 is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Cash, reflecting a preference for equities amid a weak dollar environment[1] - The bond yields are expected to fluctuate within a favorable range, while commodity prices, particularly precious metals, are projected to reach new highs[1] - Currency funds are likely to focus more on liquidity safety, resembling a substitute for demand deposits in investor asset allocation[1] Risks and Uncertainties - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policies, escalation of trade tensions, and rising fiscal security risks in major economies globally[1]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week with declining trading volume [1][7] - The market experienced a rebound amidst low liquidity and weak technical indicators, although financing data showed improvement [16] Macroeconomic Analysis - The Bank of Japan's Governor hinted at a possible interest rate hike later this month, signaling a hawkish stance [5][14] - Japan's economy shows signs of recovery with rising wages, while a weak yen has led to imported inflation pressures [5][14] - International markets have begun pricing in potential liquidity tightening following the Bank of Japan's statements, although the impact remains limited [5][14] Short-term Outlook - As year-end approaches, institutional fund activity is low, leading to reduced market liquidity and increased pricing power for quantitative funds [8][17] - The technology growth sector is particularly sensitive to marginal catalysts, with expectations for significant policy outcomes from upcoming meetings [8][17] - A potential influx of capital estimated in the hundreds of billions is anticipated to support a spring market rally [8][17] Mid-term Perspective - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with no fundamental changes in the economic backdrop or technology narrative [8][18] - Defensive dividend sectors are recommended for continued allocation, with increased insurance capital and stable economic expectations providing support [10][19] Long-term View - The long-term dynamics of the U.S.-China rivalry are becoming clearer, with increasing skepticism about U.S. governance and institutional credibility [9][18] - The Chinese equity market may benefit from sustained foreign capital inflows, supported by a favorable exchange rate for the yuan against the dollar [9][18] - The trend towards long-term capital from public offerings and insurance funds is expected to strengthen, with significant stock holdings by major insurance companies [9][18] Industry Insights - For defensive dividend sectors, maintaining allocation ratios is advised, with a focus on catalysts in certain industries and stable attributes in Hong Kong stocks [10][19] - In aggressive sectors, technology remains a key focus, particularly in AI and related fields, with attention to short-term catalysts in domestic computing and commercial aerospace [10][19] - The market may see opportunities in undervalued domestic demand sectors and high-growth areas, contingent on strong catalysts [10][19]

Core Viewpoint - 2026 is seen as a pivotal year for global capital reallocation, with Chinese assets becoming essential for international investors due to their "valuation advantage + growth momentum" [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Multiple financial institutions predict that 2026 will continue the "revaluation of Chinese assets," with A-shares and RMB assets expected to attract ongoing inflows of domestic and foreign capital [1] - The confidence of foreign institutions in Chinese assets stems from a reassessment of China's economic fundamentals and optimistic outlooks, with several international banks raising their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2026 [2] Group 2: Economic Developments - The rapid development of emerging industries in China, including digital economy and green low-carbon transformation, is injecting new momentum into economic growth, with significant increases in the value added of digital manufacturing and smart equipment sectors [3] - The restructuring of monetary order, characterized by a decline in the safety of dollar assets, alongside the resilience of China's economic fundamentals, is likely to reinforce the logic of currency order reconstruction and promote the revaluation of Chinese assets [3] Group 3: Currency and Asset Valuation - The trend of a "weak dollar and strong RMB" is expected to continue into 2026, with international investors showing increased preference for RMB assets as China's economy stabilizes [4] - Investment opportunities in 2026 are expected to focus on technology growth sectors, particularly in AI, chips, and automation, with Chinese tech stocks being prioritized in global portfolios [4]