1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, South American soybeans are likely to have a significant yield increase, but the impact of La Niña on southern Brazil and Argentina should be monitored. The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season remains at a historically low level, supporting US soybean prices, and there is still room for adjustment in US soybean yield and exports. It is expected that the downward price movement of US soybeans is limited [5]. - On the demand side, the crushing profit of imported soybeans in China is generally in the red, leading oil mills to strengthen their price - holding intentions, which supports the price of soybean meal. The Chinese government is releasing imported soybeans through auctions, and the high transaction prices support the near - month contracts of soybean meal. In the Chinese pig - farming sector, the number of pig slaughterings in 2026 may increase year - on - year, but due to the loss - making situation in farming, the average slaughter weight of pigs is expected to decline year - on - year. In the Chinese poultry sector, the number of major meat - type poultry slaughterings is expected to continue growing in 2026, but the growth rate may slow down. In the Chinese egg - laying hen sector, due to the large inventory base of laying hens, past profitability in farming, and low market enthusiasm for culling, the inventory of laying hens in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to remain at a high level [5]. - Overall, with a high probability of South American soybean yield increase and stable domestic demand, the supply - demand situation is loose. There is no strong driving force for a significant increase in soybean and rapeseed meal prices. It is expected that the prices of soybean and rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate within a wide range [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Annual Viewpoints and Strategies - Supply - side: In 2026, South American soybeans are likely to increase in production, but attention should be paid to La Niña's influence on southern Brazil and Argentina. The low inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans supports prices, and there is potential for adjustment in US soybean yield and exports [5]. - Demand - side: Domestic soybean crushing losses lead to stronger price - holding by oil mills. The government's soybean auctions with high prices support near - month contracts. Pig slaughter volume may increase in 2026, but weight may decline. Meat - type poultry slaughter is expected to grow with a slowdown in the rate. Laying hen inventory is expected to stay high in Q1 2026 [5]. - Overall: With supply - demand balance, soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [5]. Strategy Views and Outlook - Unilateral: The main contract of soybean meal may fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 2650 - 3000. For options, consider buying put options after price increases [7]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for now [7]. - Outlook: Key factors to watch include the weather in South American soybean - growing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and China - Canada and China - US trade relations [7]. International Situation - US Interest Rates: In September 2025, the US unemployment rate was 4.4%, slightly lower than the Fed's expected 4.5% but higher than the long - term target of 4.2%. The number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000, less than the target of 200,000. Due to the lag in CPI data release caused by the government shutdown and the expected decline in core CPI after considering the easing of China - US trade relations, there is a need for the US to cut interest rates in 2026 [10][12][14]. - China - US Trade: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders in late October 2025, trade relations eased, and China promised to purchase 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans. On November 5, China officially announced retaining a 10% tariff on US goods, so the current tariff rate for importing US soybeans is 13%. Since resuming imports, China has imported about 4 million tons of US soybeans [18]. - China - Canada Trade: On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports, leading to a halt in imports in October [20]. Domestic Situation - Domestic Prices: In October 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, indicating weak consumer demand [25]. - GDP Growth: In recent years, due to the in - depth adjustment of the domestic real estate market and the severe external environment, China's GDP growth rate has slowed down [29]. Policy - related Expectations - Anti - dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed: The result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed will be announced before March 9, 2026. The outcome is still uncertain, depending on China - Canada and Canada - US trade relations [34][35]. - State Auction of Imported Soybeans: On December 11, 2025, the National Grain Trading Center auctioned 512,500 tons of imported soybeans (from 2022 and 2023). The trading volume was 397,043 tons, with an average price of 3,935.3 yuan/ton and a trading ratio of 77.5%. The market expects a total of about 4 million tons of imported soybeans to be auctioned, and subsequent auctions need attention [37]. Fundamentals - Futures Price Trends: Since 2025, soybean meal futures prices have risen first, then fallen, and finally fluctuated widely. The price increase in Q1 was due to low imported soybean arrival; the decline in Q2 was due to sufficient supply; in Q4, prices fluctuated weakly with the easing of China - US trade relations [45]. - Feed Futures Contract Spreads: The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal has fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Impact Factors on Supply - La Niña's Impact: The latest Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is - 0.6, below the - 0.5 threshold. Most models suggest La Niña will persist in the Northern Hemisphere winter. However, NOAA predicts a 61% chance of ENSO turning neutral from January to March 2026, and the impact on South American soybean production is expected to be limited [58]. - US Soybean Inventory - to - Sales Ratio: According to the December USDA report, the inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 6.74%, at a historically low level, which supports US soybean prices and limits the downward price space [60][61]. - Brazilian Soybean Exports: As of early December 2025, Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress reached 95.17%. Before the new harvest, Brazil's available soybean exports are limited [67]. - South American Soybean Planting: As of December 5, 2025, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 90.3%, and as of December 11, Argentina's soybean planting progress was 58.6%. Overall, the planting progress is normal. Although La Niña needs attention, Brazil's soybean production is likely to increase due to the expanded planting area [71]. Demand - side Factors - Pig Farming: In 2025, the inventory of sows capable of reproduction was at a historically high level, indicating a possible year - on - year increase in pig slaughter in 2026. However, due to losses in farming, the average slaughter weight of pigs is expected to decline year - on - year [76]. - Poultry Farming: In 2025, the inventory of parent - generation white - feather broilers was high, and the supply of chicks in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to keep growing. The number of major meat - type poultry slaughterings is expected to grow, but at a slower rate. The inventory of laying hens in 2025 reached a historical high, and it is expected to remain high in the first quarter of 2026 [78]. Import and Inventory - Soybean Imports: In November 2025, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.373 million tons from October and an increase of 953,000 tons (13.32%) from November 2024. From January to November 2025, the cumulative soybean imports were 103.7814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6872 million tons (6.89%) [80]. - Rapeseed Imports: In October 2025, China's rapeseed imports were 0 tons. From January to October, the cumulative rapeseed imports were 2.4458 million tons, a 51.8% decrease from the same period last year [84]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory: As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.1552 million tons, a 2.51% decrease from the previous week and a 30.80% increase from last year. The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week and a 70.74% increase from last year [89]. - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory: As of December 5, 2025, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons. The low inventory is due to the off - season of aquaculture, and the sufficient supply of soybean meal suppresses rapeseed meal prices [93]. Technical Analysis - The current price of the soybean meal 2605 contract is at a historically low level [99].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pricing logic of agricultural products has shifted, with policy and geopolitics taking precedence, followed by cost, and supply - demand coming third due to complex international trade environments and increased trade conflicts [8][114]. - In 2026, the overall supply of agricultural products is expected to increase, but the growth rate will slow down. There are potential opportunities in specific sectors and stages, while market volatility will intensify [114]. - For different agricultural products, such as oilseeds, grains, livestock, and eggs, their supply - demand structures, market trends, and influencing factors vary, and corresponding investment strategies and risk points need to be considered. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseeds and Oils 3.1.1 2025 Market Review - Domestic soybean meal fluctuated, with a wider spot price range than the futures price. The price of oils declined from a high level, with palm oil leading the market, and the soybean - palm oil price spread widened and adjusted [7][11][19]. 3.1.2 2026 Market Analysis - The pricing of oilseeds is mainly influenced by policy and geopolitics. The global supply - demand of oilseeds is approaching balance in 2025/26, but there are opportunities for phased market movements due to uncertain factors such as weather and policies [8][114]. - Global oilseed production is expected to increase at a slower pace, with soybeans decreasing and rapeseed and sunflower seeds increasing. The consumption of oilseeds is expected to be strong, mainly driven by bio - diesel policies and feed demand [29][35]. - The production of palm oil may exceed expectations, driven by weather and technological factors. The biodiesel policies of the US and Indonesia are uncertain, which will affect the demand for oils [67][83]. - There are differences in the forecasts of global vegetable oil trade volume by different institutions. The inventory of vegetable oils is expected to decline slightly, and the market lacks a clear driving force [106][110]. 3.1.3 Price Outlook - If South American soybean production decreases by more than 10 million tons, the global soybean price center will move up. If South American production is stable and China actively purchases soybeans, the market will be relatively loose. If China purchases cautiously, the supply - demand contradiction will intensify [114]. 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 2025 Market Review - Domestic and international corn futures prices first rose and then fell. The domestic market was mainly affected by policies, experiencing a roller - coaster ride from state - owned grain reserve purchases to imported corn auctions [120][123]. 3.2.2 2026 Market Analysis - Global corn production is expected to have a good harvest, with increased production in the US and China. The demand for feed and deep - processing is expected to decline slightly due to losses in the breeding industry [121][164]. - The inventory of corn is expected to increase, with an increase in trade - link inventory and expected imports of substitutes [121]. 3.2.3 Future Concerns - The relative changes between the expected high - yield and carry - over inventory will affect the corn price [186]. - The increase in Xinjiang's corn production will change the national corn trade pattern [191]. - The impact of bio - energy policies on US corn exports and the guidance of agricultural policies on the corn market [195][197]. 3.2.4 Price Outlook - In 2026, the international corn market supply is expected to increase, and the domestic market will face pressure from a large harvest and increased imports. The price is expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year [206]. 3.3 Pork 3.3.1 2025 Market Review - The supply of pork increased in 2025, leading to a decline in prices. The market was affected by factors such as secondary fattening and policy regulation [208][212]. 3.3.2 2026 Market Analysis - The number of sows in stock decreased in October 2025, which will lead to a reduction in pig slaughter in the second half of 2026, resulting in a supply contraction [209][220]. - Pig prices are expected to be weak first and then strong, and industry profits are expected to recover. Policy guidance and supply - demand adjustment will interact to affect pig prices [209]. 3.3.3 Price Outlook - In 2026, the pig market is expected to experience a price reversal. After the Spring Festival, pig prices may decline seasonally, but they will rebound after May as supply decreases and demand recovers [266]. 3.4 Eggs 3.4.1 2025 Market Review - The spot price of eggs was under pressure from the supply side and showed a weak performance throughout the year, with obvious seasonal patterns [267][271]. 3.4.2 2026 Market Analysis - The inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased but remains at a high level. The willingness of farmers to replenish the flock has decreased, and the willingness to cull old hens has increased, which will help alleviate over - capacity [283][285]. - Feed raw material prices are expected to be weak, reducing the cost support for egg prices. The terminal demand for eggs maintains normal seasonal patterns without new bright spots [268]. 3.4.3 Price Outlook - In 2026, egg prices are expected to follow seasonal patterns. With the expected slow decline in production capacity, egg prices are expected to improve, but uncertainties in farmers' replenishment and culling decisions need to be monitored [308][310].

长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-12-15 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 02 油脂：报告及基本面偏空，豆棕油比菜油 更弱 豆粕：成本叠加去库支撑，价格偏强运行 目 录 01 豆粕：成本叠加去库支撑，价格偏强运行 01 豆粕：成本叠加去库支撑，价格偏强运行 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止12月12日，华东现货报价3070元/吨，周度上涨50元/吨；M2601合约收盘至3083元/吨，周度上涨47元/吨；基差报价01-10元/吨， 期现逐步回归。周度受大豆到港通关时间延长，同时大豆逐步进去去库周期，供需收紧下价格走势偏强，同时拍卖大豆价格在3900元/吨以上， 支撑豆粕底部价格；远月受天气好转以及成本低位，价格呈现偏弱走势。 ◆ 供应端：目前市场暂时维持南美2025/26 年度大豆的丰产预期，全球大豆总供应量增幅低于总需求增幅，期末库存及库销比均高位回落，供需 格局略微收紧。全球2025/26年度产量达4.22亿吨，同 ...

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. Report's Core Viewpoint - The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and crushing margins are under pressure. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [9][10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International soybeans: US soybeans continued to decline this week. Although purchases from China and a low domestic stocks - to - use ratio in the US provided support, a high global stocks - to - use ratio and slow sales progress limited the upside. Brazilian soybean premiums increased by about 8 cents per bushel, and the arrival cost of soybeans decreased by about 60 yuan/ton. The cost of Brazilian soybeans shipped in February is about 3,624 yuan/ton. Rainfall in Brazilian soybean - growing areas has recovered, but most areas in Argentina expect less rainfall. The USDA forecasts a shift in the global soybean supply - demand pattern, with the global stocks - to - use ratio falling from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently, providing a bottom support [9]. - Domestic double - meal: There were delays in domestic arrivals this week. Soybean meal spot prices first fell and then rose, with basis fluctuating. Futures prices were volatile, and oil mills' purchasing profits showed a small loss. Domestic soybean meal transactions were fair, and提货 was at a relatively high level. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were higher year - on - year, and the de - stocking progress was slow. As of December 9, the purchased volumes for September, October, November, and December were 876, 773, 620, and 497 tons respectively. The current purchasing progress indicates that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline, and the high level of domestic soybean meal提货 provides some support for the domestic soybean basis [9]. - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. The report did not provide specific suggestions for arbitrage trading [11]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot price: The document provides the historical spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong [17][18]. - Basis of the main contract: It shows the historical basis trends of the soybean meal 01 contract and the rapeseed meal 01 contract [20][21]. - Spread: The document presents historical spread trends such as soybean meal 01 - 05, soybean meal 03 - 05, soybean meal 05 - rapeseed meal 05, and soybean meal 01 - rapeseed meal 01 [22][23]. - Fund position: It shows the historical net long positions of managed funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal [25][27]. 3. Supply Side - US soybean planting progress: The document provides historical data on US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate [31][32]. - Weather conditions: There is information on rainfall in Argentine and Brazilian soybean - growing areas, and the possibility of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January is mentioned [34][36][37]. - US soybean export progress: The document shows the historical data of US soybeans' total export contracts signed with China in the current market year, the annual sales completion rate, the total export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative export shipments to China [49][50]. - China's oilseed imports: It presents the historical monthly import volumes and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [52][53]. - China's oil mill crushing: The document shows the historical soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China [54][55]. 4. Profit and Inventory - Oilseed inventory: It shows the historical port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills in China [58][59]. - Protein meal inventory: The document presents the historical inventory and forecasts of soybean meal in coastal major oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills in China [61][62]. - Protein meal crushing profit: It shows the historical crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas [63][64]. 5. Demand Side - Protein meal demand: The document shows the historical cumulative transactions of soybean meal in major oil mills during the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [65][66]. - Breeding profit: It shows the historical average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the historical breeding profit of white - feather broilers [67][68].

近日，连续数周强降雨叠加罕见热带气旋，在东南亚、南亚多国引发近年来最严重洪灾。印度尼西亚、 斯里兰卡、泰国等国大片区域及越南、柬埔寨、老挝部分地区，11月降雨量达2012年以来同期最高，灾 害造成大量人员伤亡与财产损失。印尼国家抗灾署12月8日数据显示，亚齐、北苏门答腊和西苏门答腊 三省洪水及山体滑坡已致961人遇难、逾4200人受伤。斯里兰卡灾害管理中心12月8日通报说，截至当 晚，热带气旋"迪特瓦"造成的极端天气已致该国635人死亡、超200万人受灾，192人失踪。泰国防灾减 灾厅12月10日表示，泰国洪灾死亡人数总计276人。 本轮极端天气呈现多重叠加气象特征。截至11月中旬，赤道中东太平洋接近拉尼娜阈值。世界气象组织 预测2025年12月至2026年2月出现弱到中等强度拉尼娜的可能性超五成。同时，处于偏负位相的印度洋 偶极子事件年底趋于减弱，共同导致西太平洋及毗邻陆地降水偏多。此外，热带风暴"森亚尔"与热带气 旋"迪特瓦"分别在马六甲海峡和斯里兰卡附近生成并多次登陆，结合东北季风带来大量水汽，使印尼苏 门答腊、斯里兰卡和泰国南部等多地累计降雨量远超常年。 中方高度关注地区多国的灾情，积极开展人道主义援 ...

机制电价竞价结果加速落地，"41+9"打造氢能新动力 环保公用事业行业周报（2025/12/07） 周期/环保及公用事业 本周环保板块下跌，公用事业板块上涨。环保（申万）行业指数下跌 0.15%， 公用事业（申万）行业指数上涨 0.12%，相对市场整体涨跌幅较小。 ❑ 风险提示：政策落实低于预期、煤炭及硅料价格下跌、项目进展低于预期、 国际政治局势变化的风险等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 242 | 4.7 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4009.2 | 3.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3711.5 | 3.9 | 证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 09 日 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 09 日 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -4.2 12.9 15.1 相对表现 -3.0 -6.4 -1.2 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Dec/24 Apr/25 Jul/25 Nov/25 (%) 环保及公用事业 沪深300 相关报 ...

| | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月08日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 显一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | ななな | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆表现为横盘震荡调整。现货报价平稳。国内仓单增加。上周中储粮大豆竞价收购2025年国产新豆国标 三等及以上大豆全部成交，均价3972元/吨。美豆方面美国仍然在向中国销售大豆,不过由于美国比巴西大豆缺 少价格竞争优势，市场对美豆销售进度存在忧虑的情绪，另外南美天气本周出现降雨,因此美豆价格出现回 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Recommending range trading for coking coal and rebar; advising to wait and not chase highs for glass [1][5][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Suggesting range trading for copper, tin, and gold; recommending to reduce long positions when aluminum rebounds to a high level; advising to wait and see or short on rallies for nickel; suggesting to hold long positions in silver and be cautious about new positions; expecting lithium carbonate to trade with a bullish bias [1][10][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Recommending range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; suggesting to wait and see for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][19][21][26] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to trade with a bullish bias; expecting PTA to rise in a sideways movement; expecting apples to trade with a bullish bias; expecting red dates to trade weakly [1][27][28][29] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Recommending a strategy of shorting on rallies for near - term hog contracts and being cautiously bullish on far - term contracts; expecting egg prices to face limited upside; suggesting to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and for grain holders to hedge on rallies; recommending range trading for soybean meal; suggesting to take profits on previous long positions in soybean and palm oil and beware of correction risks [1][30][32][36] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the price trends and investment opportunities of different sectors, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton and textile industry chain, and agriculture and animal husbandry [1][5][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - shares fluctuated and recovered. Although the market's main line rotated quickly and trading volume was poor, expectations of Fed rate cuts and domestic meetings supported the indices. They are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures opened and closed lower. Whether the market can break out of the current range depends on the actual buying power of year - end allocation funds and the guidance of important meetings on next year's economic situation and monetary policy. They are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: The coal market continued to decline, with weak demand and a strong bearish sentiment. It is expected to trade in a range [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded slightly. The current valuation is neutral to low, and there are no significant short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is expected to trade sideways at a low level [7] - **Glass**: Futures prices rebounded recently due to rumors of production line shutdowns and increased purchases by futures - cash traders. However, the overall inventory pressure is still large, and it is recommended to wait and not chase highs [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The safety situation in the DRC is complex. Although long - term demand is optimistic, short - term high prices may suppress consumption. It is recommended to trade in a range [10] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is expected to increase, and the overall demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to reduce long positions when the price rebounds to a high level [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore may become more abundant in the future, and the refined nickel market is in a surplus. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14][15] - **Tin**: Tin production increased in October, and the supply of tin concentrate is tight. The price is expected to be supported, and it is recommended to trade in a range [15] - **Silver and Gold**: Supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and safe - haven demand, they are expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver and trade gold in a range [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Yichun and the resumption of production at Ningde's mine [17][18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, supply is high, and demand is weak. It is expected to continue to trade at a low level [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Inventory is high, and the valuation is suppressed by the expected reduction in alumina production. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - **Styrene**: The overseas blending logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade sideways [21] - **Rubber**: Supply is increasing during the peak season, and demand is poor. It is expected to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is weakening. However, the reduction in inventory provides support, and it is expected to trade sideways [23][24] - **Methanol**: Domestic supply has recovered, and port inventory has decreased. It is expected to trade sideways [25] - **Polyolefins**: Inventory continued to decline, but demand is insufficient after the peak season. PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly [25][26] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is in excess, but the cost provides support. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Although global supply - demand data is relatively loose, domestic cotton sales are fast, and yarn prices are firm. They are expected to trade with a bullish bias [27][28] - **PTA**: Affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand dynamics, it is expected to rise in a sideways movement [28] - **Apples**: The trading volume in the warehouse is general, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [29] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%. Enterprises' acquisition enthusiasm is average, and prices are expected to trade weakly [30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: In the short term, supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to adjust slightly. In the long term, capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the normal level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on far - term contracts [30][31][32] - **Eggs**: The supply is still sufficient, but short - term supply - demand conditions have marginally improved. In the long term, capacity reduction still takes time. It is recommended to wait and see [32][33] - **Corn**: In the short term, price rebounds may be limited by increased supply. In the long term, cost support is strong, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and for grain holders to hedge on rallies [34][35] - **Soybean Meal**: The price of US soybeans is expected to trade in a narrow range. Domestic supply is sufficient in December and January. It is recommended to trade in a range [36][37] - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, the three major domestic oils lack further positive factors and are expected to trade at a high level. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions in soybean and palm oil and beware of correction risks [37][38][42]