Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, it gives outlooks such as "oscillating upward", "oscillating sideways", and "oscillating downward" [7][8][11]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple agricultural and related commodities, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It believes that the overall market shows a pattern of diversified trends, with some commodities expected to be strong, some weak, and others remaining in a range - bound state [7][8][11]. Summary by Commodity Categories Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has stabilized and may continue to oscillate upward [7]. - **Logic**: Macro - environment factors include expected Fed rate cuts in December and potential progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, leading to a weaker US dollar and a rebound in crude oil. From an industrial perspective, attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and the uncertainty of US biodiesel policies. South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and domestic imported soybean arrivals are expected to be at a relatively high level. Palm oil production in Malaysia in November is expected to have a narrowing month - on - month increase, and exports have declined. Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low, and Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. Domestic rapeseed supply is tight, but future supply is expected to increase [7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate upward [7]. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to South American weather and consider opportunistically laying out long positions in M2605 [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, La Nina is expected to occur, and South American agricultural regions will face climate differentiation, which may affect the growth of new - season corn and soybeans. The US soybean planting area is expected to expand in 2026, and US soybean exports are expected to decline. Domestically, China's soybean import profit has recovered, and the oil mill's soybean inventory is high, while the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and domestic soybean meal are expected to oscillate upward [8]. Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: There is a short - term supply - demand tightness, and prices will oscillate at a high level [9]. - **Logic**: The current supply - demand situation is tight, with factors such as upstream farmers' reluctance to sell, downstream rigid - demand restocking, differences in grain quality and regional price differentials, and traders' rush to buy and transport grains driving up prices. The tight transportation capacity also exacerbates the situation [10]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate at a high level [9]. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are weak, and the main contract rebounds with reduced positions [11]. - **Logic**: In the short term, supply is abundant, and demand is insufficient. In the medium term, there is pressure on large - pig inventory, and prices are in a downward cycle. In the long term, sow production capacity is expected to decline, and supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [11]. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate downward. The near - term contracts are weak, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [11]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It will oscillate slightly upward [13]. - **Logic**: Affected by the flood situation in southern Thailand, the market is relatively strong. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market. Demand has not changed significantly recently, and the buying sentiment of downstream enterprises is still acceptable [14]. - **Outlook**: Prices will continue to oscillate widely with high elasticity, and it is difficult to have a trend - based market [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It will maintain range - bound oscillations [15]. - **Logic**: The recent stability of raw material butadiene trading and the strong performance of natural rubber support the market. The butadiene price rebounded after a decline, but there are still some selling pressures at high prices [15]. - **Outlook**: Before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene, it is advisable to short at high prices [15]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Cotton prices fluctuate narrowly, and the upward and downward space is limited [16]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase in production, and the supply is increasing. On the demand side, there is buying support when prices fall. On the inventory side, the commercial inventory is accumulating, and the pressure on prices may decrease after entering the destocking cycle [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to oscillate upward, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [17]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: Sugar prices rebound, and there is short - term support at the bottom [17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long term, sugar prices are in a downward trend, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. However, in the short term, the 01 contract shows some support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, prices will oscillate downward; in the short term, there is support at 5300 yuan/ton [17]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the logic of near - term and far - term futures contracts is differentiated [19]. - **Logic**: The recent decline in futures prices is due to the withdrawal of long - position funds. There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include potential shortages of delivery warehouse receipts, the upward trend of hardwood pulp prices, and relatively high non - bleached softwood pulp prices. Negative factors include a certain amount of warehouse receipts to be delivered, expected non - reduction of softwood pulp imports, and a decreasing proportion of softwood pulp use [19]. - **Outlook**: Pulp futures will oscillate widely, with the 01 contract having an expected upper pressure range of 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton, and the 03 and 05 contracts having an upper pressure range of 5550 - 5600 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 5100 - 5150 yuan/ton [19]. Offset Printing Paper - **Viewpoint**: Offset printing paper will oscillate narrowly [20]. - **Logic**: The continuous decline in raw material prices affects the market sentiment negatively. Social demand is still weak. Supply is stable, downstream printing factory orders are limited, and the cost support from wood pulp is weakening [20]. - **Outlook**: There is still supply pressure. There is price support in the short term due to publishers' pick - up, but it may oscillate downward in the medium term [21]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The valuation is not high, and the downward space is limited [22]. - **Logic**: There is no obvious buying intention. The fundamental situation is weak, and there is a lack of upward momentum. New Zealand's shipments to China are increasing, and demand is expected to remain weak. The market is in a state of "weak supply and demand", and the inventory will gradually decrease [22]. - **Outlook**: The supply will remain loose, demand has no expectation of increase, and the spot price is under pressure, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation at the bottom [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others may face downward or upward pressure in different time frames [1]. - The agricultural market is influenced by multiple factors, including supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, policies, and international trade [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Livestock (Pigs) - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and the spot price remains weak [1][2]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, monthly supply is abundant, and the planned daily slaughter of large - scale farms in November slightly increases compared to October. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive until the first quarter of 2026. In the long - term, sow production capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026. Demand is insufficient, and the average slaughter weight is increasing [2]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. The near - term contracts may continue to be weak due to high - capacity realization and large - pig slaughter pressure at the end of the year. The far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [3]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The expected increase in November's palm oil production in Malaysia narrows, and market sentiment shows signs of stabilization [6]. - **Logic**: From a macro perspective, the market anticipates an improvement in US soybean export demand and a possible Fed rate cut in December. In the industry, the progress of South American soybean planting is smooth, and the expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is high. For palm oil, the expected month - on - month increase in Malaysia's November production narrows, and exports decline. For rapeseed oil, domestic supply is currently tight, but it may increase later [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to oscillate strongly, palm oil to oscillate, and rapeseed oil to oscillate strongly. The market may gradually stabilize [6]. 3.3 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the M15 spread decreases [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, Sino - US communication may boost market sentiment. La Nina is expected, and South American soybean planting is progressing. Brazilian soybean exports in November are expected to reach 440 million tons. Domestically, the profit of soybean imports is repaired, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is high. The sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal increase, and the inventory of soybean meal decreases seasonally [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to oscillate strongly. Soybean and rapeseed meals are expected to oscillate within a range [8]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: There is a short - term supply - demand tightness, and prices oscillate at a high level [9]. - **Logic**: The current supply - demand situation is tight. Factors include farmers' reluctance to sell, downstream replenishment needs, differences in grain quality and regional price differences, traders' rush to buy, and tight transportation capacity [10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. In the short - term, the bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the spot price will continue to oscillate [11]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The impact of floods in the production area needs further observation [13]. - **Logic**: After the previous decline due to high export data in October and weak downstream procurement, the market rebounded due to the flood in southern Thailand. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand has not changed significantly. The RU contract may face greater selling pressure than the NR contract [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range and high - elasticity oscillation, and there is no obvious trend [14]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Continue to oscillate within a range [15]. - **Logic**: The BR contract rebounded recently, mainly due to the relatively stable trading of raw material butadiene. However, there is still pressure on the fundamentals and raw material side [15]. - **Outlook**: Before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene, short - selling on rallies is recommended [15]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Under the game between long and short forces, it will continue to oscillate within a range in the short - term [16]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase in production. On the demand side, consumption has been good in recent months. The commercial inventory is accumulating, and the price is supported by cost and downstream procurement but faces hedging pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range. In the long - term, it is undervalued and is expected to oscillate strongly. Buying on dips is recommended [16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: In the medium - and long - term, there is a downward drive, but the cost side provides short - term support [16]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. The supply pressure will increase as the new sugar is pressed. However, the 01 contract shows some support at 5300 yuan/ton [16]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, and the support at 5300 yuan/ton should be monitored in the short - term [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the logic of near - and far - term futures differs [17]. - **Logic**: The recent decline in futures is due to the withdrawal of long - position funds. There are both bullish and bearish factors, and it is expected to oscillate within a wide range [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and pulp futures will mainly oscillate widely [18]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The raw material price is weak, and offset paper oscillates at a low level [19]. - **Logic**: The weakening of the pulp market and light social demand affect the price. Although some paper mills want to maintain prices, the market remains under supply pressure [19]. - **Outlook**: Supply pressure persists. There is price support in the short - term due to publishers' purchases, but it may oscillate weakly in the medium - term [20]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Log prices are weakening and entering the deep - value area [21]. - **Logic**: The market is weak with no obvious buying interest. The supply from New Zealand is expected to increase in December, and demand is expected to be weak in 2026 [21]. - **Outlook**: The supply is loose, demand has no incremental expectation, and the spot price is under pressure. It will maintain a narrow - range bottom - oscillating trend [21]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The overall commodity index shows different trends. The special index, including the commodity 20 index and industrial product index, shows slight increases, while the PPI commodity index shows a slight decrease [179]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On November 26, 2025, the agricultural product index increased by 0.30% on the day, 0.55% in the past 5 days, 0.06% in the past month, and decreased by 2.68% since the beginning of the year [180].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Corn: ☆☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ☆☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The soybean market needs to focus on US soybean exports in the short - term and South American soybean产区 weather in the medium - term. For soybean meal, wait for the end of the correction and look for buying opportunities after stabilization. Palm oil's marginal changes may trigger short - covering, and soybean oil is affected by US soybean prices. The short - term driver of the rapeseed sector is not obvious, and it is recommended to wait and see. The corn market should pay attention to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat. The live pig industry's capacity reduction supports far - month futures prices, and the egg market's medium - term supply pressure is expected to ease [2][3][4][6][7][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean main contract is reducing positions and prices are correcting. The new domestic soybean market features high - quality, high - price. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans fluctuates. Short - term focus on the domestic soybean spot market and policy guidance, and also pay attention to US soybean exports in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient and the crushing volume has increased. Last week, the domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume exceeded 2.3 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory of major oil mills rose above 1.1 million tons. South American new - season soybeans are affected by La Nina, with slow planting progress. Wait for the signing of the new Sino - US economic and trade agreement and look for buying opportunities after the correction [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The marginal negative factors in the palm oil market have eased. MPOA expects a 3.24% month - on - month increase in production from November 1 - 20, much lower than the previous forecast. The basis of palm oil in East China has strengthened slightly. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has turned positive and strengthened. Palm oil's changes may trigger short - covering. Soybean oil is affected by US soybean prices [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures prices have risen slightly, mainly following the rise of foreign oil prices. Canadian rapeseed crushing demand is high, but the export demand trend is hard to reverse. The import of Australian rapeseed has profit potential. The short - term driver of the rapeseed sector is not obvious, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Corn - Corn futures rose and then fell today, interrupting the upward trend. The spot price of Northeast corn is firm, while that of North China is weak. The price difference between the two regions has widened. The downstream corn inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the signing of the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [7]. Live Pigs - In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased to 39.9 million, a 1.1% month - on - month decline. The industry's capacity reduction supports far - month futures prices. The spot price of live pigs continues to decline. The demand for curing and sausage - making in the South will gradually start, but there is also pressure from the second - fattening pigs. It is expected that the pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [8]. Eggs - Egg futures continue to increase positions, and the far - month contracts have risen significantly. Since July this year, the chick replenishment volume has declined sharply. The number of newly - laid hens will decrease, and the number of old hens to be culled will increase. The medium - term supply pressure of the egg market is expected to ease. The short - term near - month contracts will focus on the convergence of the spot - futures price difference [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Soybean Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★★★ [1] - Hog: ★★★ [1] - Egg: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The agricultural product market shows complex trends with different factors influencing each product. Some products have clear trends and investment opportunities, while others lack short - term drivers and are recommended for a wait - and - see approach [2][3][6] - The market is affected by factors such as weather, supply and demand, trade policies, and international price fluctuations [3][4][6] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybean futures are reducing positions and prices are回调. The new crop market features high - quality, high - price. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is fluctuating. Short - term focus is on the domestic spot market and policies, and medium - term on South American weather [2] - Imported soybeans are affected by US exports in the short - term and South American weather in the medium - term [2][4] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The domestic soybean supply is sufficient and the crushing volume has increased. The inventory of soybean meal has reached a high level, and the supply is loose [3] - South American new - season soybeans are affected by La Nina, with slow planting progress. Wait for the new Sino - US trade agreement and look for buying opportunities after the回调 [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The marginal negative factors in the palm oil market have eased. The domestic palm oil basis has strengthened slightly, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has turned positive. Palm oil may see short - covering [4] - Soybean oil is affected by US soybean prices, with short - term focus on US exports and medium - term on South American weather [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures prices have risen slightly, mainly following the external market. Canadian rapeseed has high crushing demand but weak export demand. The import of Australian rapeseed has profit potential. The short - term driver for the rapeseed sector is not obvious, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [6] Corn - Corn futures have stopped rising. North - China corn prices are strong, while South - China corn has quality issues. The price difference between North and South is widening. The downstream inventory is low, and the replenishment intention has increased. Wait for the Sino - US trade agreement and pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [7] Hog - The number of breeding sows has decreased, which supports the long - term futures price. The spot price is weak. With the approaching of the winter demand season, there is also pressure from the second - fattening hog supply. The hog price may form a double - bottom pattern [8] Egg - Egg futures are increasing positions, and the far - month contracts are rising. The supply of new - laying hens is expected to decrease, and the number of old hens to be culled is large. The short - term near - month contracts will focus on the convergence of the spot - futures price difference [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Protein meal: Bullish [2][3][9] - Corn/starch: Bullish [10] - Live pigs: Bearish [12] - Natural rubber: Neutral [13][15] - Synthetic rubber: Bearish [16] - Cotton: Neutral [16] - Sugar: Bearish [17] - Pulp: Neutral [18] - Offset paper: Neutral [19] - Logs: Bearish [21] - Oils and fats: Mixed (soybean oil - neutral, palm oil - bearish, rapeseed oil - neutral) [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having their own influencing factors and price outlooks [1][6][9] - For protein meal, both international and domestic factors contribute to a bullish outlook, but attention should be paid to factors such as Chinese purchases of US soybeans and South American weather [2][9] - In the oils and fats market, the performance of different oils varies, affected by macro - environment, industrial policies, and supply - demand relationships [6][7] - Corn prices are driven up by multiple factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, rigid demand for replenishment, and transportation issues [10][11] - Live pig prices are weak due to abundant supply in the short - to - medium term, but supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [12] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **International situation**: Multiple factors such as the possible occurrence of La Nina, drought risks in South America, and changes in US and Brazilian soybean exports and压榨量 lead to an expected bullish trend for US soybeans [2][9] - **Domestic situation**: Import profit of Chinese soybeans is restored, oil mill soybean压榨量 is high, and the supply and demand of domestic protein meal are relatively balanced in the short term. Attention should be paid to Chinese purchases of US soybeans, profit repair, and downstream replenishment [2][9] Oils and Fats - **Macro - environment**: Fed officials' dovish remarks boost the expectation of a December interest rate cut, and the impact of the US promoting a Russia - Ukraine peace agreement on crude oil needs to be monitored [6] - **Industrial situation**: Pay attention to China's purchases of US soybeans, US biodiesel policies, South American soybean planting progress, and the supply and demand of different oils [6] Corn/Starch - **Price information**: The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract increased by 1.63% [10] - **Driving factors**: Farmers' reluctance to sell, rigid demand for replenishment, concentrated demand in the Northeast, traders' passive grain - grabbing, and tight transportation capacity drive the price up [11] Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short - to - medium term, the supply is abundant, but the sow production capacity has shown signs of reduction since the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [12] - **Demand**: The demand is insufficient, and the pig - to - meat ratio has declined, with sporadic bacon - curing in the South [12] - **Outlook**: The near - term price is weak, and the far - term price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [12] Natural Rubber - **Market information**: The prices of some rubber products and raw materials have changed, and the export volume of Thailand and Vietnam has decreased year - on - year [13][14] - **Logic**: Although there is speculation about floods in Thailand, the supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand has not changed significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [15] Synthetic Rubber - **Market information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene have changed [16] - **Logic**: The stable成交 of butadiene supports the disk, but the fundamentals and raw material pressure are large. It is recommended to short at high prices [16] Cotton - **Market information**: The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton 01 contract increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [16] - **Logic**: The supply is increasing, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is supported by cost and downstream purchases and pressured by hedging [16] Sugar - **Market information**: The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract increased [17] - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply, and the price has a downward drive. In the short term, the 01 contract has certain support at 5300 yuan/ton [17] Pulp - **Market information**: The prices of some pulp products have changed [17] - **Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. The pulp is expected to fluctuate widely, and different contracts have different pressure and support levels [18] Double - Offset Paper - **Logic**: The continuous decline of raw material prices and weak social demand lead to the low - level weak operation of double - offset paper. The price may be supported in November but may decline in December [19][20] Logs - **Logic**: The fundamentals are weak, the supply is expected to increase in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly around the cost line [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual outlooks for each commodity: - Oils and fats: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a downward - oscillating trend [6] - Protein meals: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate [7] - Corn and starch: Expected to be oscillating, with a short - term upward trend [8][9] - Pigs: Expected to be in a weakly oscillating trend [10] - Natural rubber: Expected to oscillate [11][12] - Synthetic rubber: Expected to oscillate, with a suggestion to short at high prices [13] - Cotton: Short - term 01 contract to oscillate, long - term to be weakly upward - oscillating [13] - Sugar: Expected to be in a weakly oscillating trend in the medium - long term [14] - Pulp: Expected to oscillate [15] - Offset paper: Short - term price support from publisher pick - up, medium - term weakly oscillating [16] - Logs: Expected to be in a weakly oscillating trend at a low level [17][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It points out that different products are affected by different factors such as weather, policies, trade relations, and market sentiment. For example, corn prices are supported by factors like farmers' reluctance to sell, enterprises' replenishment demand, and transportation issues; while pig prices are affected by supply and demand imbalances in the short and medium - term, with a potential supply reduction in the long - term [1][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is weak as the expected production of Malaysian palm oil in November is increasing month - on - month. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic factors include the repeated expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut and the potential increase in global oil supply. On the industrial side, the US soybean harvest is almost complete, South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and the expected arrival of imported soybeans in China is at a relatively high level. For palm oil, the production in November is expected to increase while exports are expected to decline. For rapeseed oil, the supply is expected to increase later [6] - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a downward - oscillating trend [6] 3.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: Rapeseed meal has increased in position and price, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to shrink. - **Logic**: Internationally, La Nina is expected to occur, and there is a drought risk in parts of South America. The US soybean planting area is expected to expand in 2026, and the export is expected to decline. Domestically, the import profit of soybeans has improved, and there is an expectation of soybean reserves release. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in the same period in recent years [7] - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, and the price difference between them is expected to shrink [7] 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The upward trend continues due to positive factors. - **Logic**: Positive factors include farmers' reluctance to sell due to weather and transportation issues, the replenishment demand of feed - using enterprises, and the increase in transportation costs. In the short term, these positive factors will continue, but there may be a callback in the future [1][9] - **Outlook**: Oscillating. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see as the positive factors have not been fully digested [9] 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Sows are reducing production, and the short - term price is weak while the long - term price is strong. - **Logic**: In the short and medium - term, the supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand is insufficient. In the long - term, the reduction of sows' production capacity is expected to continue, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [10] - **Outlook**: Weakly oscillating. The short - term price is weak, and the long - term price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [10] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The flood in the production area has triggered bullish sentiment, but the increase is limited. - **Logic**: The rebound is mainly due to concerns about floods in Thailand. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand has not changed significantly recently. The upside space is limited without strong expected differences and macro - driving factors [11][12] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate widely and with high elasticity, and there is no obvious trend [12] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The market atmosphere has stabilized, and the price continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The price of the raw material butadiene has rebounded after falling, and the trading volume has increased. However, as the price rises, the enthusiasm of sellers to ship has increased, and some high - price transactions have been blocked [13] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short at high prices before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene [13] 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price has rebounded, and the price difference between January and May contracts has widened. - **Logic**: Internationally, the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase, and the inventory of US cotton is expected to accumulate. Domestically, the production of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and the demand is gradually weakening seasonally. The January contract has limited upward driving force but is supported by the cost of new cotton [13] - **Outlook**: The January contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the long - term valuation is low and weakly upward - oscillating [13] 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price has rebounded slightly. - **Logic**: In the medium - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply, and the pressure on the sugar price will gradually increase as the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere comes on the market [14] - **Outlook**: Weakly oscillating in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to short at high prices [14] 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp price oscillates as the positive and negative factors remain unchanged. - **Logic**: Positive factors include the possible shortage of delivery warehouse receipts, the strong price of broad - leaf pulp, and the relatively high price of non - cloth needle pulp. Negative factors include the possible delivery of about 70,000 tons of warehouse receipts in the January contract, the expected non - reduction of coniferous pulp imports, and the decreasing use of coniferous pulp [15] - **Outlook**: Oscillating [15] 3.10 Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: Offset paper follows the raw material price and oscillates at a low level. - **Logic**: The raw material price is falling, the supply is stable, the downstream demand is limited, and the cost support is weakening. In November, there is price support from publisher pick - up, but in December, there may be a downward pressure due to dealers' inventory clearance [16] - **Outlook**: Short - term price support from publisher pick - up, medium - term weakly oscillating [16] 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The supply and demand are loose, and the price oscillates at a low level. - **Logic**: The supply from New Zealand is expected to increase in December, and the demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026. The inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly around the cost line [17][18] - **Outlook**: Weakly oscillating at a low level [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The environmental and public utility sectors experienced declines, with the environmental index down 6.02% and the public utility index down 4.33%, indicating a larger drop compared to the overall market [6][23] - The report highlights a significant increase in electricity consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% in October, marking a new high for the year [10][21] - The coal industry is facing a reduction in production, with national raw coal output declining by 3.8%, 3.2%, and 1.8% in July, August, and September respectively [6] - The report suggests investment opportunities in the electricity sector, particularly recommending companies like Guodian Power and Anhui Energy, which are expected to see valuation recovery [6] Summary by Sections Key Event Analysis - In October, total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, with significant growth in the first and third industries [10][21] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released allocation plans for carbon emissions trading for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries for 2024 and 2025, indicating a move towards free allocation based on carbon emissions [21][22] Market Review - The environmental and public utility sectors saw significant declines, with the environmental sector up 15.11% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index [6][23] - The electricity sector's year-to-date growth is only 1.77%, lagging behind the CSI 300 and the ChiNext index [6][23] Key Data Tracking - As of November 21, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal is 820 CNY/ton, stable compared to the previous week but down 2.4% year-on-year [40] - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level is at 174.4 meters, up 4.2% year-on-year, with inflow and outflow rates also increasing [42] - The average electricity price in Guangdong reached 253.72 CNY/MWh, a 7.7% increase from the previous week [53] Industry Events - The report notes several key regulatory developments, including initiatives to promote green manufacturing in Jiangxi Province and the establishment of zero-carbon parks in Liaoning Province [64][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global soybean new - crop production has been marginally reduced, with total production now almost equal to total demand. Supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, suggesting the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. - Currently, domestic soybean inventory is at a multi - year high, and soybean meal inventory is large, pressuring crushing margins. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range with cost support and pressured crushing margins [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, US soybeans reached the cost level of 1170 cents per bushel and then pulled back. The global soybean supply reduction is limited, and the global soybean stock - to - use ratio remains high. Brazilian soybean premium quotes declined slightly this week, reducing the cost of imported soybeans in China. As of November 21, the January US soybean contract was at 1126.5 cents per bushel, and the Brazilian January premium was 145 cents per bushel. The November USDA forecast further reduced the global new - crop soybean production by about 4 million tons, mainly due to cuts in India, Ukraine, and the US. After the November adjustment, the USDA estimates that the 25/26 global soybean production and consumption are nearly equal, and the supply - demand pattern has shifted from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand. The global soybean stock - to - use ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%, providing a bottom support but not enough for a highly profitable CBOT soybean planting market [9]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated, and the basis also fluctuated. The futures market followed cost changes, and the oil mills' crushing margins on the futures market declined. Domestic soybean meal sales were decent, and提货 was at a relatively high level. Feed companies' inventory days were 7.98 days, slightly lower than the same period last year and down 0.25 days from the previous period. As of November 18, institutional statistics showed 9.2 million tons of soybean purchases in August, 8.76 million tons in September, 7.73 million tons in October, and 6.51 million tons in November. Current purchase progress indicates that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline. Coupled with the high - level提货, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The unilateral strategy for soybean meal is to expect range - bound trading [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: Provided historical data charts of soybean meal spot prices in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot prices in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2021 - 2025 [17][18]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Provided historical data charts of the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract and the rapeseed meal 01 contract [20][21]. - **Spreads**: Provided historical data charts of various spreads, such as the soybean meal 01 - 05 spread, 03 - 05 spread, 11 - 1 spread, and soybean meal 01 - rapeseed meal 01 spread [22][23]. - **Fund Positions**: Provided historical data charts of the net long positions of managed funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal [25][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Provided historical data charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate from 2021 - 2025 [31][32]. - **Weather Conditions**: Provided precipitation forecasts for Argentine and Brazilian soybean - growing regions until November 29, 2025, and analyzed the possible occurrence of La Nina from October 2025 to January 2026 and its impact on climate [34][36]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Provided historical data charts of the total amount of US soybean export contracts signed with China in the current marketing year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total amount of US soybean export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative value of US soybean exports to China in the current market year [48][49]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Provided historical data charts of monthly soybean and rapeseed imports and forecasts in China from 2021 - 2025 [51][52]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing**: Provided historical data charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China [53][54]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Provided historical data charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in China from 2021 - 2025 [57][58]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Provided historical data charts of the soybean meal inventory and forecasts of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills in China from 2021 - 2025 [60][61]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Provided historical data charts of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseed in coastal areas from 2021 - 2025 [62][63]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: Provided historical data charts of the cumulative sales volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal in China [65]. - **Breeding Profit**: Provided historical data charts of the average profit per head of self - bred and self - raised pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2021 - 2025 [66][67].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of El Niño and La Niña on canola production in major exporting countries, highlighting the probabilities of yield changes and area variations under different climatic conditions [5][10]. Group 1: El Niño Impact - In Canada, initial high temperatures during the sowing period lead to a higher probability of reduced yield (44%), but an increased area (56%) may offset this, resulting in a 67% chance of overall production increase [5]. - Ukraine experiences dry conditions during the planting period, with a high probability of reduced yield (78%) but also a 56% chance of increased area, leading to a 56% probability of production increase [5]. - Australia faces high temperatures and drought during the growing season, with a 78% probability of reduced yield and a 67% chance of overall production decrease [6]. - In Russia, some areas are cooler during the growing season, with a 63% probability of reduced area and a 50% chance of reduced yield, leading to a 63% probability of decreased production [7]. - The EU experiences wet and hot conditions during sowing, with an 86% probability of reduced yield and a 57% chance of decreased area, resulting in an 86% probability of reduced production [7]. Group 2: La Niña Impact - In Canada, only a small part of the western coastal region is affected by cooler temperatures, leading to a 55% probability of reduced yield but a 64% chance of increased area, resulting in a 73% probability of overall production increase [8]. - Australia shows a high probability of increased production (82%) and yield (73%) during La Niña conditions, with favorable weather during the growing season [8]. - Ukraine and the EU have a high probability of increased yield (78% for Ukraine and 71% for the EU) during La Niña, although Ukraine faces a 67% chance of reduced area, leading to a 56% probability of decreased production [8]. - In Russia, the harvest period sees high temperatures, with a 71% probability of reduced yield but a 100% chance of increased area, resulting in a 71% probability of no overall production decrease [8]. Group 3: Summary of Climatic Effects - Regardless of whether El Niño or La Niña occurs, Canada and Russia have a higher probability of reduced yield, while Australia is more likely to increase production under La Niña and decrease under El Niño [9][10]. - Ukraine and the EU show a higher probability of increased yield under La Niña, but Ukraine's area changes often inversely affect yield, leading to production following area trends [9][10]. - The weak La Niña phenomenon is expected to last until February next year, with current weather conditions in Canada, Russia, Australia, Ukraine, and the EU being monitored for their impact on canola production [10][11].

国内棕榈油从近期的横盘区间跳升，表现转强，豆棕价差从高位回调，显示出棕油开始强于豆油。美豆油表现偏强，一方面市 场对美国生物柴油政策预期偏乐观，一方面美国柴油市场表现偏强、美国柴油产量低于平均水平，柴油出口强劲。国内需求也 好于平均水平，预计美国柴油中期会表现为供需偏紧的格局，预计美国柴油市场的强劲对植物油有边际溢出效应。随着豆油的 走强,国际市场上豆棕价差也在走强,棕榈油也开始主动跟随。棕榈油马来西亚的短期高频数据显示供需面偏弱。大豆国内近 端压榨利润仍然偏差，国内表现出豆油强于豆粕。由于豆油表现偏强，我们预计棕榈油会被带动，基于这个国素，预计棕榈油 单边走势阶段性见底的概率偏大。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月19日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 显一 | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ★☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕榈油 | ★☆☆ | | | 豆粕 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 莱油 | ...