23日早盘，两市主要股指盘中震荡下探，沪指跌超1%失守3800点，深证成指、创业板指跌近2%，场内 超4900股飘绿。 校对： 赵燕 截至午间收盘，沪指跌1.23%报3781.61点，深证成指跌1.84%，创业板指跌1.75%，北证50指数跌逾 3%，沪深北三市合计成交17137亿元。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 中信建投证券表示，美联储降息落地后，"十五五"有望成为下一阶段市场关注重点，"反内卷"、服务消 费、提振内需、产业升级等构成重要内容。总体来说，目前市场仍处高位，没有明显冲顶和回落趋势， 前期热门赛道间轮动加剧，指数整体处于横盘整理阶段，参考历史回踩的最终点位可能就在60日均线。 在此期间大概率依然会延续轮动+前期高标杀跌的特点。建议短期仍以横盘心态应对市场，重视赛道行 业轮动，轻指数而重个股。建议埋伏低位板块与聚焦"拒绝调整"相关股票。 盘面上看，旅游出行、地产、医药、券商、酿酒等板块均走低，银行板块逆市拉升，中特估概念活跃。 ...

Domestic Macro Policy - The Ministry of Finance emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy to support employment and foreign trade, aiming to improve people's livelihoods and foster new growth drivers[2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" focuses on industrial internet applications and typical scenarios of "Artificial Intelligence+" to boost emerging industries[12] - Shanghai has adjusted housing tax policies, exempting first-time homebuyers and second homes under certain conditions for residents with residence permits[18] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China is advocating for reforms in the global financial governance system, suggesting a shift towards a multi-currency international monetary system[14] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.00%-4.25%, with a forecast of an additional 50 basis points reduction by year-end[23] Trade Relations - A constructive phone call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Trump highlighted the potential for mutual prosperity and cooperation between the two nations[21] Consumption and Investment - The Ministry of Commerce announced measures to expand service consumption, including a "Service Consumption Season" and support for cross-industry collaborations[16] - The new energy storage plan aims for a capacity of 180 million kilowatts by 2027, driving an estimated investment of approximately 250 billion yuan[13] Risk Factors - There is a risk of divergence in domestic and international monetary policies, with concerns that domestic policy execution may fall short of expectations[27]

Group 1 - The overall industry selection framework focuses on resources, new productive forces, and globalization [2] - Resource stocks are shifting from cyclical attributes to dividend attributes due to supply constraints and global geopolitical expectations [2] - The globalization of leading Chinese manufacturing companies is expected to convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin improvements [2] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the demand for assets and capital market reforms aimed at improving investor returns [3] - The recent communication between Chinese and U.S. leaders indicates a stabilization of short-term risk outlook [3] - The upcoming reforms in the capital market, including the launch of the growth tier on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, are anticipated to accelerate market adjustments [3] Group 3 - The current market remains in a consolidation phase since September, with a positive funding environment supporting the ongoing trend [4] - The key factor for the continuation of the positive feedback from the funding side is the profitability effect [4] - Focus areas for investment include domestic computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, chemicals, batteries, and leading consumer stocks [4] Group 4 - The three main drivers of the current upward trend in A-shares remain unchanged, with a focus on low penetration sectors [5] - Attention is drawn to solid-state batteries, AI computing power, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace [5] - The market is still in a bull market phase, with expectations for further growth [5] Group 5 - There has been significant inflow of both domestic and foreign capital into the Chinese stock market, with a notable increase in passive fund inflows [6] - The reduction in positions in high-priced options indicates a cautious outlook for the Shanghai Composite Index [6] - Overall, the long-term outlook for the Shanghai Composite Index remains bullish [6] Group 6 - The market is currently experiencing a rotation among sectors, with a focus on individual stocks rather than indices [7] - Key areas of interest include humanoid robots, AI, new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7] - The market is expected to continue its rotation while maintaining a high level of focus on individual stock performance [7] Group 7 - The current market conditions suggest that a bull market driven by improving corporate earnings is in the making [8] - Opportunities are identified in upstream resources, capital goods, and raw materials due to improved operating conditions [8] - Domestic demand-related sectors are also expected to present opportunities as earnings recover [8] Group 8 - The market is transitioning from a focus on existing stocks to an expansion of new opportunities driven by incremental capital [9] - The emphasis is on identifying opportunities based on industry trends and economic conditions rather than merely switching between high and low positions [9] - The market is expected to see a broadening of investment opportunities as new capital flows in [9] Group 9 - The potential for low-position stocks to experience a rebound is increasing as the market approaches the fourth quarter [10] - Historical trends indicate that stocks that performed well in the third quarter may not continue their momentum into the fourth quarter [10] - The focus is on cyclical stocks and those benefiting from global pricing resources as key areas for investment in the upcoming quarter [10] Group 10 - The recovery of free cash flow in export-advantaged manufacturing sectors is anticipated due to policy changes and global re-industrialization [11] - The valuation system for China's advantageous manufacturing sectors is expected to undergo systematic restructuring [11] - The return of global capital to China is likely to drive a bullish trend in high-end manufacturing sectors [12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a tendency for upward movement after the National Day holiday, with a significant increase in the probability of rising on the last trading day before the holiday and the first trading day after the holiday [1][6]. Group 1: Historical Performance - Over the past decade, the overall probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the five trading days before the National Day holiday is low, but the probability of an increase on the last trading day before the holiday is 70% [1][6]. - The first trading day after the holiday has a 70% probability of the index rising, and the probability of an increase over the subsequent five trading days is 60% [1][6]. Group 2: Yearly Performance Data - The table shows the percentage changes in the Shanghai Composite Index for the five trading days before and after the National Day holiday from 2015 to 2024, highlighting fluctuations in performance across different years [2]. - For instance, in 2024, the index rose by 21.37% in the five days before the holiday and 4.59% on the first day after the holiday [2]. Group 3: Leading Industries - The leading industries in the A-share market before and after the National Day holiday from 2020 to 2024 exhibit a rotation pattern, with different sectors performing well each year [3][4]. - In 2024, the top sectors before the holiday include public utilities, banks, and oil & petrochemicals, while electronics, computers, and banks lead after the holiday [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market is likely to continue a "slow bull" trend, with key variables being policy rhythm and market sentiment [6][7]. - Investment opportunities are identified in service consumption, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and sectors benefiting from price increases and reduced competition [6][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth momentum in China slowed down in August, with multiple indicators such as prices, investment, and consumption weakening, increasing the necessity for policy support. Policy is guiding the further growth of "service consumption". There are expectations for policies from the upcoming "922" press conference. The overseas situation is positive, with positive signals from the China-US economic and trade talks and the Fed's first interest rate cut this year. However, the domestic economic data is poor, and there is a need for policies to promote consumption, stabilize the real estate market, and expand fiscal spending. The stock index trend remains bullish, but the policy aims for a "slow bull" pattern. It is recommended to adjust and go long, and control positions before the holiday [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Logic** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In August, China's economic growth slowed, with industrial production, investment, and consumption weakening. The year-on-year growth of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.2%, the year-on-year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%, and the year-on-year growth of national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to August was 0.5%. Policy support for the economy is necessary [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The policy is guiding the growth of service consumption, with over 30 policies already introduced and more to come. The "922" press conference has raised policy expectations, similar to the "924" policy "combination punch" last year [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The China-US Madrid economic and trade talks had a positive tone. The Fed cut interest rates by 20bp in September 2025, and the dot - plot shows possible further rate cuts [3]. - **Liquidity**: As of September 18, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 23946.9 billion yuan, an increase of 509.9 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 13.2%, at the 99.7% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 1609 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment View and Strategy** - **View**: Control positions before the holiday, adjust and go long, and expect a "slow bull" pattern in the A - share market [3]. - **Strategy**: Control positions unilaterally before the holiday, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 fell 0.44% to 4501.9; the SSE 50 fell 1.98% to 2909.7; the CSI 500 rose 0.32% to 7170.3; the CSI 1000 rose 0.21% to 7438.2 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (3.1%), electronics (3%), automobiles (3%), machinery and equipment (2.2%), and social services (1.7%) led the gains, while banking (-4.2%), non - ferrous metals (-4%), non - bank finance (-3.7%), steel (-3%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-2.7%) led the losses [9]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 17.61%, 18.63%, 12.92%, and 11.24% respectively, while the open interests decreased by 7.73%, 4.25%, 8.04%, and 2.08% respectively [11]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 was at 1592.2, at the 94.9% historical quantile level; the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 was at 267.8, at the 43.9% historical quantile level; the CSI 300/CSI 1000 was at 0.6, at the 32.7% historical quantile level; the SSE 50/CSI 1000 was at 0.6, at the 26.6% historical quantile level [16]. Part Three: Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 11923 billion yuan. Next week, 18268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire, and 3000 billion yuan of MLF will expire on September 25 [22]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of September 18, the A - share margin trading balance was 23946.9 billion yuan, an increase of 509.9 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market turnover was 13.2%, at the 99.7% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 1609 billion yuan compared to the previous week. As of September 19, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.29, at the 51.8% quantile level in the past decade [29]. Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In August, various economic indicators showed different trends. For example, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value was 5.2%, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.4%, and the year - on - year growth of fixed - asset investment from January to August was 0.5%. The CPI was - 0.4%, and the PPI was - 2.9% [32]. - **Industry - Specific Indicators**: Different industries such as real estate, consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction also had their own performance trends. For example, in the real estate industry, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment continued; in the manufacturing industry, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4% [32][34][37]. - **Corporate Earnings**: The earnings of major broad - based indices and Shenwan primary industry indices showed different growth rates and ROE levels. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent of the CSI 300 in Q2 2025 was 2.49%, and the ROE (TTM) was 9.71% [44][45]. Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drive - **Recent Policy Movements**: A series of policies have been introduced, including policies to promote service consumption, optimize real estate policies, and provide fiscal subsidies for personal consumption loans. For example, on September 17, the Ministry of Commerce announced policies to promote service consumption; on September 5, Shenzhen optimized real estate policies [49][50]. Part Five: Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In August, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.7%, the non - manufacturing PMI was 52%, the consumer confidence index was 55.4, the unemployment rate was 4.3%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 22000. The year - on - year growth of PCE was 0%, and the year - on - year growth of CPI was 2.9% [59][62]. - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump has proposed and implemented a series of tariff policies, including tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico, which have led to trade frictions and counter - measures [66][68].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests focusing on quality leading companies within the service consumption sector due to favorable policy changes [2]. Core Insights - The consumer sector showed mixed performance in the week of September 8-12, with notable gains in social services, home appliances, and textiles, while food and beverage sectors experienced declines [2]. - A new policy from nine government departments aims to boost service consumption, particularly benefiting the cultural tourism, education, and sports sectors, with comprehensive measures to enhance consumer experience and attract new customers [2][14]. - Retail sales in August grew by 3.4% year-on-year, with significant increases in home appliances and furniture, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [2][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sectors like liquor, hotels, and dining, which are currently undervalued and positioned for growth [2]. Summary by Sections Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector's performance varied, with specific sectors like social services and home appliances showing positive growth, while food and beverage sectors faced declines [2][12]. - Key stocks that led gains included Qianwei Yangchu (+17.59%) and Hongchang Technology (+33.96%), while stocks like Jiahe Food (-10.14%) and Guoguang Chain (-17.53%) faced significant losses [12][13]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced plans to enhance cultural and tourism consumption, including a three-year action plan to stimulate demand [14][15]. - The report highlights the introduction of a new subsidy program for childcare, aiming to improve consumer spending in related sectors [15]. - The People's Bank of China has implemented various financial support measures to boost service consumption, including a significant loan program targeting key sectors [16][19].

Market Overview - Recent macro events are leaning towards a favorable market outlook, but the A-share index has retreated after a rise, indicating some breakthrough pressure at current levels [1][4] - The market's response to positive news has been tepid, particularly in previously popular tech sectors, suggesting a cooling of short-term market sentiment [1][4] - With the upcoming National Day holiday, trading activity is expected to decline, and a lack of clear macro catalysts may lead to a predominantly volatile market before the holiday [1][4] Investment Recommendations - Short-term strategy should focus on stability, with a recommendation to control exposure to high-risk sectors while emphasizing medium to long-term fundamentals [1][10] - Key areas of focus include: 1. Service consumption sectors such as tourism, dining, duty-free, and cinema [1][10] 2. High-dividend sectors like coal, banking, public utilities, and transportation [1][10] 3. "Anti-involution" sectors including steel, building materials, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries [1][10] 4. Sectors benefiting from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, such as Hang Seng Technology, precious metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][10] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed signs of stabilization, with August PPI month-on-month remaining flat after a 0.2% decline in July, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [2][5] - Fixed asset investment growth for January to August was 0.5% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 2.0% and manufacturing investment by 5.1%, while real estate investment fell by 12.9% [5][6] - Consumer spending showed potential for improvement, with retail sales in August growing by 3.4% year-on-year, down from 3.7% in July [5][6] Policy Developments - The government is expected to continue implementing service consumption policies, with measures aimed at enhancing service supply and meeting diverse consumer needs [7] - The central bank's recent press conference on the "14th Five-Year Plan" will provide insights into monetary policy, capital markets, and real estate [6][7] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking a shift in focus from inflation to employment [9][11] - The Fed's projections indicate further rate cuts in the coming years, which may positively impact global liquidity and emerging markets [9][11] Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.30% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.14% during the last week [12] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased by 8.55% compared to the previous week, indicating a slight uptick in market activity [12]

Group 1 - The overall industry selection framework remains focused on resources, new productive forces, and globalization [1] - Resource stocks are shifting from cyclical attributes to dividend attributes due to supply constraints and global geopolitical tensions, leading to a revaluation of the valuation system [1] - The globalization of China's manufacturing leaders is expected to convert market share advantages into pricing power and profit margin improvements, resulting in market capitalization growth beyond domestic economic fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by the demand for assets and capital market reforms aimed at improving investor returns [2] - The recent communication between Chinese and U.S. leaders indicates a stabilization of short-term risk outlook, while a weak dollar and overseas rate cuts favor China's monetary easing [2] - The market adjustment is viewed as an opportunity, with expectations for A/H shares to reach new highs [2] Group 3 - The current market is in a consolidation phase following recent highs, with a positive funding environment being crucial for the sustainability of the market [3] - The focus remains on maintaining a high position in the market, with an emphasis on balanced sector selection and monitoring the continuation of third-quarter report performance [3] - Key sectors to watch include domestic computing power chains, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, chemicals, batteries, and leading consumer stocks [3] Group 4 - The three main drivers of the current upward trend in the A-share market remain unchanged, with a historical tendency for the market to rise following preemptive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4] - Attention is drawn to solid-state batteries, AI computing power, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace as potential growth areas [4] - The market is expected to continue along low penetration paths until a significant policy shift occurs [4] Group 5 - Both domestic and foreign capital have significantly flowed into the Chinese stock market, with a notable inflow from domestic investors [5] - The recent decrease in positions in the CSI 300 options market indicates a cautious outlook on upward potential beyond 4250 points [5] - Overall, the long-term bullish sentiment on the CSI 300 remains intact despite short-term adjustments [5] Group 6 - The market is currently characterized by sector rotation rather than a clear upward or downward trend, with a focus on individual stocks rather than indices [6] - Key sectors to monitor include humanoid robots, AI, pig farming, new energy, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals [6] - The market is expected to continue its rotation and maintain a focus on stocks that resist adjustment [6] Group 7 - The current market conditions suggest that a recovery in corporate earnings may be in the making, indicating the potential for a bull market [7] - Opportunities are anticipated in upstream resources, capital goods, and raw materials due to improved operating conditions and investment acceleration [7] - Consumer-related sectors such as food and beverage, tourism, and scenic spots are also expected to present investment opportunities [7] Group 8 - The market is experiencing structural differentiation and requires consolidation, with a focus on identifying opportunities based on industry trends rather than simple positional switching [8] - The behavior of funds has shifted from moving within a static market to expanding in a growing market, indicating a more dynamic investment environment [8] - The focus is on exploring undervalued segments within leading styles and enhancing the profitability of these styles [8] Group 9 - The potential for low-level rebounds is increasing as the market transitions into the fourth quarter, with a more balanced structural style anticipated [9] - Historical trends suggest that leading stocks from the third quarter may not continue their upward momentum into the fourth quarter [9] - The Hang Seng Tech index is expected to catch up and potentially outperform in the low-level direction during September and October [9] Group 10 - The recovery of free cash flow in export-advantaged manufacturing sectors is anticipated due to fiscal support and capital expenditure reductions [10] - The revaluation of China's export-advantaged manufacturing sector is expected as the anti-involution policies take effect [10] - The main investment themes include hard currency assets, hard technology, and Chinese manufacturing benefiting from anti-involution [11]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to become a focal point for the market, emphasizing anti-involution, service consumption, boosting domestic demand, and industrial upgrades [1] Market Sentiment - Overall market sentiment remains high, with no significant signs of peak or decline, while indices are experiencing narrow fluctuations at high levels [1] - Individual stocks and sectors are showing considerable volatility [1] Investment Strategy - As risks increase in high-positioned sectors, the strategy suggests focusing less on indices and more on individual stocks [1] - It is recommended to position in low-positioned sectors and focus on stocks related to "refusing adjustments" [1] Industry Focus - Key industries to watch include humanoid robots, AI, pig farming, new energy, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and non-bank financials [1]

Core Viewpoint - The joint release of a significant document by nine departments, including the Ministry of Commerce, outlines a comprehensive blueprint for service consumption, proposing 19 measures aimed at unlocking the potential of service consumption [1][12]. Group 1: Night Economy - Extending operating hours is expected to attract more visitors, as evidenced by successful cases in cities like Xi'an and Chengdu, where night-time activities have significantly boosted visitor numbers and overall economic vitality [1][3]. - The night economy is driven by three key factors: the natural demand for evening relaxation after daytime work, the integration of various consumption types (dining, shopping, entertainment), and the unique atmosphere of night-time experiences that enhance consumer spending [3][4]. - However, challenges such as nighttime transportation, public safety, and increased operational costs for businesses need to be addressed to ensure the sustainability of this economic model [4][12]. Group 2: IP Cross-Industry Collaboration - The emphasis on IP cross-industry collaboration highlights the substantial market value of IP, with successful examples like the Palace Museum's cultural products generating significant revenue, showcasing the blend of cultural depth and commercial value [5][10]. - Successful IP can lower marketing costs, enhance user loyalty, extend consumption cycles, and create emotional premiums, thus acting as a powerful consumer entry point [7][8][10]. - Nonetheless, the risk of over-commercialization of IP, which can dilute its cultural value, poses a significant concern that must be managed carefully [10][12]. Group 3: Implementation Challenges - The 19 proposed measures cover a wide range of aspects from supply to demand, but practical execution may face challenges such as the burden of additional costs from extended hours and the need for government support to alleviate financial pressures on businesses [12][14]. - Avoiding homogenization in IP collaborations is crucial to maintain the uniqueness and value of each IP, while the feasibility of new holiday systems must be assessed for broader acceptance [12][14]. - The focus should be on enhancing service quality, creating immersive experiences, and developing sustainable business models that do not solely rely on external policy support for success [16][17].