Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Provincial Economic Work Conference has prioritized "greater efforts to expand overall domestic demand" as the primary task for economic work in 2026 [1] Group 1: Service Consumption Development - The development of service consumption will play an "important role" in boosting consumption in Shandong next year [2] - Service consumption refers to the total expenditure by residents on various non-material services, including dining, accommodation, home services, elderly care, cultural tourism, and health services [2] - Compared to material consumption, service consumption has higher frequency, stronger multiplier effects, sustainable growth, and significant innovation potential [2] - Research indicates that large-scale events like concerts can generate a consumption multiplier of 6.85, meaning every 1 yuan spent on tickets can drive 6.85 yuan in overall consumption [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Growth Potential - As per international development patterns, a region's per capita GDP reaching $15,000 indicates a shift towards service consumption dominance; China's per capita GDP has surpassed $13,000, with Shandong's expected to reach $15,000 this year [2] - This transition suggests that service consumption is entering a rapid growth phase, with significant potential in cultural, leisure, and health-related consumption [2] Group 3: Implementation Strategies - The government plans to support selected cities like Jinan, Qingdao, and Yantai in expanding service consumption through new business models and scenarios [3] - The central government is addressing the need for consumers to have more leisure time to engage in service consumption, suggesting the promotion of staggered paid leave for employees [4] Group 4: Supply and Quality Improvement - There is a need to enhance the quality of service consumption supply, as current offerings are often repetitive and low-end, with a lack of distinctive and high-end services [5] - Innovation in service content, scenarios, and models is encouraged to tap into the potential for improved and new consumption [5] - Optimizing the consumption environment is crucial to ensure consumer trust and satisfaction, which will encourage spending [5] - Increasing employment and income for urban and rural residents is essential for boosting consumption [5]

当"服务消费"从一个商业概念升级为国家层面的战略部署，一场围绕未来商业竞争力的竞赛已悄然开 启。 在"坚定实施扩大内需战略"成为国家宏观政策重要部署的背景下，一场围绕未来商业核心竞争力的深度 变革已全面展开。2026年中央经济工作会议进一步强调"着力扩大国内需求，激发有潜能的消费"， 这 为服务消费的深化与创新注入了更强的政策动能。 国庆前夕，商务部等九部门也联合印发《关于扩大服务消费的若干政策措施》（以下简称"服务消费十 九条"），为这场竞赛划下清晰的起跑线。这份文件不仅明确了服务消费的发展方向，更向相关行业提 出关键命题：在商品消费之外，企业如何通过服务创造差异化价值？ 国家税务总局数据显示，2025年国庆中秋假期，全国服务消费同比增长7.6%。服务消费高、乘数效应 强正成为拉动消费的新引擎。随着我国人均GDP达到1.3万美元，消费结构正从商品消费转向商品与服 务消费并重的新阶段。 新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 深耕文化价值：用中国故事赋能品牌内涵 "服务消费十九条"中特别强调了"挖掘传统文化IP市场价值"。华夏文明与传统文化正以更现代的表达形 式，通过国潮、文旅、IP产品等方 ...

鑫新闻 研究所日报 2025 年 12 月 24 日 星期三 1.据中国证券报，近期多家公募机构召开2026年度策略会，多位基金经理围绕AI科技、消费、创新药 等热门板块的后续投资机遇展开深度探讨。多数机构对2026年市场上涨动力预判为从单一的估值驱动 逐渐转向"盈利+估值"双重驱动。点评：12月的中央经济工作会议以及此前的中央政治局会议均将鼓 励消费、优化消费鼓励政策作为2026年经济政策重点，前期的"两新"政策虽然短期提振了消费，但 其持续性不强，副作用明显，2026年可能聚焦服务消费等可持续消费领域施政引导。AI科技相关领域 毫无疑问将持续成为市场关注焦点，在经济动能转变的背景下，科技板块有着一致且长久的政策预期 和成长预期。 2.央行方面，23日当天开展593亿7天质押式逆回购，当日到期OMO1353亿元，净回笼资金760亿元。点 评：如前期判断本次跨年资金压力不大，流动性缺口较小，货币市场资金价格平稳，OMO存量降至5000 亿以下，为今年以来的较低水平，当下人民币汇率总体升值明显，离岸人民币汇率不断创出年内新高， 这与美元贬值以及年末居民结汇需求短期释放有关，当下货币政策空间较大。 1.当日A股总 ...

李拯：习近平总书记强调："扩大内需既关系经济稳定，也关系经济安全，不是权宜之计，而是战 略之举。"中央经济工作会议把"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"摆在明年经济工作重点任务的首 位。如何全面、辩证、长远看待扩大内需的挑战和潜力？ 王一鸣：扩大内需，既要看总量也要看结构。从投资看，传统领域投资动能有所减弱，但高技术产 业投资增长较快。长远来看，我国人均资本存量水平还比较低，特别是在科技创新、产业升级、城市更 新改造、乡村基础设施、公共服务等方面短板弱项仍然突出，投资潜力仍然巨大。 从消费看，服务消费等消费新增长点不断形成，今年前11个月服务零售额同比增长5.4%，呈现改 善趋势。明年，制定实施城乡居民增收计划，深入实施提振消费专项行动，消费潜力将进一步释放。 李拯：今年中央经济工作会议上，习近平总书记叮嘱："对投资下滑，既要高度重视也要沉着冷 静。从基本实现社会主义现代化的要求来看，无论投资于物还是投资于人都有广阔空间。"如何开辟这 个广阔空间？ 对话人：李拯 人民日报评论员 王一鸣 中国国际经济交流中心副理事长 王一鸣："十五五"规划建议把"居民消费率明显提高"列为经济社会发展的主要目标之一。从需求侧 看， ...

报告正文 = 文 | 赵伟、屠强 联系人 | 屠强 耿佩璇 图 39: 上周，高炉开工率位于低位 全国高炉开工率 (247家) • 2022 ··· 2019 ■ ■ ■ · 2020 2021 2023 2025 -- 2024 % 85 80 75 70 65 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1.生产高频跟踪：工业生产延续弱势，建筑业开工有所分化 工业生产中，高炉开工、钢材表观消费均不及去年同期。 上周（12月14日至12月20日），高炉开工率 环比-0.1%，同比回升0.8个百分点至-1.1%；钢材表观消费环比-0.5%、同比回升0.7个百分点至-4.1%。钢材 社会库存延续回落，环比-3.7%。 石化链开工边际改善，消费链开工相对较弱。 上周（12月14日至12月20日），石化链中，纯碱开工率 环比-1.6%，同比上行4.3个百分点至0.9%；PTA开工率持平前周、同比回升2.3个百分点至-8.4%。下游消费 链中，涤纶长丝开工率有所回升，环比0.2%、同比回落0.4个百分点至-0.4%；汽车半钢胎开工率表现偏弱， 环比-0.2%、同比回落0.1个百分点至 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares experienced fluctuations and a decline, with the Consumer ETF (159928) dropping by 0.74% and a trading volume exceeding 650 million yuan [1] - The Consumer ETF (159928) has seen a net subscription of over 470 million units during the day, accumulating over 600 million yuan in the last 20 days [1] - As of December 22, the latest scale of the Consumer ETF (159928) exceeded 21.3 billion yuan, leading its peers [1] Group 2: EU Dairy Products Subsidy - The EU has announced a preliminary ruling on dairy products, determining that subsidies exist with a countervailing duty rate ranging from 21.9% to 42.7% [3][7] - Starting December 23, temporary countervailing measures will be implemented on imported dairy products from the EU [3] - The additional countervailing duty is expected to increase import prices, potentially accelerating domestic substitution in the dairy sector [8] Group 3: Domestic Dairy Industry Impact - The countervailing duties are projected to shift the deep processing of dairy products to domestic enterprises, as domestic milk prices are currently lower than international prices [8] - The deep processing sector is anticipated to enhance demand for raw milk, improving the supply-demand balance in the upstream raw milk industry [8] - Domestic dairy companies are actively focusing on deep processing, which is expected to drive demand growth and stabilize the industry [8] Group 4: Consumer Sector Insights - The Consumer ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with the top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68.55% of its weight [13] - The ETF includes major players such as Yili (10.37%), Kweichow Moutai (9.94%), and Wuliangye (9.50%) [14] - The current valuation of the Consumer ETF (159928) is attractive, with a TTM P/E ratio of 19.4, placing it in the lower 3.13% of the past decade [5] Group 5: Future Consumption Trends - The service consumption sector is expected to grow significantly as China's GDP per capita exceeds $10,000, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [11] - Emerging consumer groups, particularly the Z generation and affluent elderly, are likely to drive demand for service-oriented consumption [12] - Investment opportunities in the service sector are anticipated, particularly in areas such as event economy and AI applications [12]

Group 1 - The core focus of China's economic policy in 2026 will shift towards technological self-reliance and new productivity paradigms, moving away from the traditional real estate and investment-driven growth model [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating resources through a new type of national system, focusing on key technologies such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, and high-end instruments, while also planning for future industries like quantum technology and sixth-generation mobile communications [1] - The structural transformation aims to enhance the security of the industrial chain and create a high-quality supply system, fostering a virtuous cycle among technology, industry, and finance to inject long-term growth momentum into the capital market [1] Group 2 - The logic of stimulating domestic demand is undergoing a profound shift, transitioning from physical consumption driven by subsidies for appliances and automobiles to service consumption as the new engine [1] - China's service consumption currently accounts for less than 50%, significantly lower than the nearly 70% in the United States, indicating substantial room for improvement [1] - The aging population is driving the "silver economy," while younger generations prefer experiences and spiritual satisfaction, further reinforcing the structural upward trend in service consumption, supported by intensive policy initiatives [1] Group 3 - The global liquidity environment is expected to improve significantly in 2026, with the Federal Reserve potentially initiating an unexpected rate-cutting cycle due to increasing fiscal pressures and political cycles [2] - The weakening of the US dollar will create favorable conditions for global risk assets, particularly emerging market equities, benefiting both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2] - Domestic policies focusing on technology and consumption will provide valuation support, potentially leading to a market value reconstruction trend, with quality growth and high-dividend leaders showing investment value [2]

今年的中央经济工作会议提出"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，并强调"深入实施提振消费专项行 动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。扩大优质商品和服务供给。" "历史和国际经验表明，国家经济在走向成熟的过程中，居民消费数量和质量的提升将成为经济增长和 结构升级的重要推动力。"招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼在接受《金融时报》 记者采访时表示。 今年以来，各地区以及银行业金融机构持续推进消费信贷产品创新，全面满足居民消费信贷资金需求。 展望2026年，受访专家普遍认为，消费增长支撑主要来自政策进一步加码显效以及服务消费潜力的加速 释放。 中国银行表示，要积极配合实施好提振消费专项行动和城乡居民增收计划，全方位满足居民多元消费需 求。建设银行表示，要加快升级产品服务体系，深入推进消费金融专项行动，更好满足人民群众多样化 差异化的金融需求。邮储银行（601658）表示，要全力支持扩大内需，服务提振消费专项行动、城乡居 民增收计划，加大消费贷款投放力度。 "银行机构需结合政策导向，在传统消费升级、服务消费扩容与新兴消费培育等领域发力，在需求侧做 好产品设计与体验优化，在供给侧做好企业资源调研对接与'一站式'服 ...

今年的中央经济工作会议提出"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"，并强调"深入实施提振消费专 项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。扩大优质商品和服务供给。" "历史和国际经验表明，国家经济在走向成熟的过程中，居民消费数量和质量的提升将成为经济增 长和结构升级的重要推动力。"招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任董希淼在接受《金融时 报》记者采访时表示。 今年以来，各地区以及银行业金融机构持续推进消费信贷产品创新，全面满足居民消费信贷资金需 求。展望2026年，受访专家普遍认为，消费增长支撑主要来自政策进一步加码显效以及服务消费潜力的 加速释放。 促消费"组合拳"效应持续显现 在中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"列为明年经济工作首要任务的背景下， 金融促消费的重要性愈发凸显。 12月12日，商务部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合印发《关于加强商务和金融协同 更大力度 提振消费的通知》（以下简称《通知》），围绕商品消费、新型消费、消费场景、县域消费等领域提出 11条政策措施。 今年11月，工业和信息化部、中国人民银行等六部门印发的《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促 进消费的实施方案》（以下简称《方 ...

张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 12 月 23 日 如何扭转增长速度放缓趋势 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 48 期） 频率：每周 投资需求的改善主要看中央财政扩张程度，消费需求的改善主要依赖服务消费 的回暖。 定期报告 相关报告 | 1、 | 开工率 5 | | --- | --- | | 2、 | 产能利用率 10 | | 3、 | 产量 14 | | 4、 | 价格 19 | | 5、 | 库存 26 | | 6、 | 房地产市场 31 | | 7、 | 出行与物流 34 | 1、《配置窗口逐渐开启——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-12-21 2、《地缘博弈持续———国际 时政周评》2025-12-21 3、《服务消费是提高居民消费 率的主要抓手之一—显微镜下 的 中 国 经 济 （ 2025 年 第 47 期）》2025-12-15 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 下半年以来，经济增长数据不断放缓。 ...