特朗普万万没想到，美国的后路居然被自己的"小弟"给包抄了。 当地时间9月22日，阿根廷突然宣布到10月31日前，全面取消26%的大豆出口预扣税，豆油、豆粕关税也同步降至零，还设置了70亿美元的免税额度上限。 就在政策出台当晚，中国买家就敲定至少10船大豆订单，部分交易员透露实际订购量达15批，每船约6.5万吨，计划11月装运。 W 这时候的美国也正值大豆收获季，往年此时，中国订单通常占美国大豆出口的8%。 可现如今，中国的订购量却为零，面对这种情况，有的美国豆农更是哀叹地表示，自己种了一辈子的地，但2025年是自己最黑暗的一年。 不过这又能怪谁呢，说来说去还不是特朗普自作自受。 特朗普自2025年1月20日重新上台后，就再次加码关税政策。 先是在2月4日对所有中国进口品加征10%关税，4月9日更是将对华关税从34%提至84%，最高时达145%。 中国随即回击，对美国大豆加征关税，叠加增值税和最惠国税后，美国大豆进入中国市场的总税率高达34%。 而成本的飙升也导致美国大豆比南美大豆价格高出20%，每吨差价达数百美元，该买谁家的大豆，自然不用多说。 如今，美国大豆的市场份额正被南美国家快速蚕食。 其中，巴西成为了 ...

美联储古尔斯比：特朗普的贸易政策是导致他不愿更激进地降低借贷成本的原因。 来源：滚动播报 ...

美国农业部长罗林斯表示，特朗普政府正在制定计划，准备动用关税收入来资助一个项目，以支持美国农民应对因出口销售下滑和投入成本上涨而面临的困境，迎接收获季。“通过现正流入美国的关税收入来为这项援助计划提供资金是‘绝对有可能的’”。罗林斯将美国农民面临的困境归咎于拜登政府的贸易政策。 https://t.co/2Ahd7fqwmO外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国大豆协会周二致特朗普的信函写道：“大豆种植户正面临巨大的财务压力。价格持续下跌，与此同时，我们的农民却在投入和设备上花费巨额资金。美国大豆种植户无法承受与我们最大客户之间长期的贸易争端。” ...

Group 1 - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices have significantly declined, with rapeseed meal leading the drop in the oilseed sector, primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors [1][2] - Analysts expect an increase in soybean imports from the U.S. due to changes in the macro environment, which may alleviate the tight domestic soybean supply situation [1][2] - The increase in Brazilian soybean exports and high export levels from Argentina have contributed to a surplus in international market supply, impacting U.S. soybean export opportunities [1][2] Group 2 - The anticipated high soybean import volume in China from September to December is expected to prolong the soybean meal inventory accumulation cycle until the end of November, leading to ample short-term supply [1][2] - Recent U.S.-China trade talks have made progress, enhancing expectations for China's procurement of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season, which may negatively affect soybean meal prices [2] - Domestic measures to adjust pig breeding capacity, including a reduction of approximately 1 million sows, may impact future demand for soybean meal as feed [2] Group 3 - The rapeseed meal market is facing weak fundamentals, with increased expectations for importing Canadian canola seeds due to improved relations between Canada and China [3] - Seasonal declines in aquaculture demand have led to decreased purchasing activity from farmers, resulting in reduced transaction volumes and continuous declines in spot prices for rapeseed meal [3] - The recent improvement in China-Australia relations and increased orders for Australian canola seeds have weakened the supportive impact of halting Canadian canola seed imports on domestic rapeseed meal prices [3]

Group 1 - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices have significantly declined, with rapeseed meal leading the drop in the oilseed sector, primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors [1] - Analysts expect an increase in China's imports of U.S. soybeans, which may alleviate the tight domestic soybean supply situation, while Brazilian soybean exports are rising and Argentine exports remain high, contributing to ample international supply [1][2] - Domestic soybean imports from September to December are projected to be high, leading to a continued accumulation of soybean meal stocks until the end of November, with weekly inventories rising [1][2] Group 2 - Recent U.S.-China trade talks have made progress, enhancing expectations for China's procurement of U.S. soybeans for the 2025/2026 season, which negatively impacts soybean meal prices [2] - Measures to adjust the breeding sow population in China may affect future demand for soybean meal in feed [2] - Despite a significant drop in soybean meal prices, uncertainties surrounding U.S. soybean exports may provide some rebound potential [2] Group 3 - The rapeseed meal market is facing weak fundamentals, with increased expectations for Canadian canola imports and a decline in purchasing activity from aquaculture due to seasonal demand [3] - Trade policies are acting as a double-edged sword for rapeseed meal prices, with the cessation of Canadian canola imports providing support, while improved relations with Australia and increased orders for Australian canola are weakening this support [3] - Canadian canola harvest is progressing, with a reported 3.6% year-on-year increase in production, which could further pressure rapeseed meal prices if imports resume [3][4] Group 4 - Short-term inventory pressures for rapeseed and rapeseed meal are manageable, but port inventories of granular meal are at historically high levels, limiting upward price movement [4] - Traders are advised to closely monitor developments in China-Canada trade negotiations [4]

Core Viewpoint - The IMF projects that Vietnam's GDP growth rate will slow to 6.5% in 2025 due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, despite a strong rebound expected in 2024 with a growth rate of 7.09% [1] Economic Outlook - In 2024, Vietnam's economy is expected to rebound strongly, driven by exports, foreign direct investment, and supportive policies, achieving a growth rate of 7.09% [1] - The positive momentum is anticipated to continue into the first half of 2025, with GDP growth projected at 7.5%, supported by prior export investments, accelerated credit growth, and significant government spending [1] Trade Relations Impact - The economic outlook for Vietnam is heavily dependent on the outcomes of trade negotiations with the U.S., alongside increasing uncertainties in global trade policies and economic conditions [1] - The expected slowdown in economic growth to 6.5% in 2025 is attributed to the effects of U.S. tariff policies throughout the year and the anticipated cancellation of most government one-time stimulus measures [1] Future Projections - Further economic growth deceleration is expected in 2026 following the trends established in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean industry is facing a crisis due to a lack of orders from China, which has historically been its largest buyer, leading to significant financial strain on American farmers and related businesses [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Soybean Industry - The U.S. soybean harvest is abundant this year, but the absence of orders from China is causing severe financial distress for the industry [1][3]. - Approximately 25% of U.S. soybeans are typically exported to China, highlighting the importance of this market for American farmers [3]. - The imposition of high tariffs by the Trump administration has disrupted trade, resulting in a stagnation of many agricultural exports, particularly soybeans [3][6]. Group 2: Response from U.S. Government and Farmers - The U.S. Soybean Association's president has expressed urgent concerns about the financial pressures faced by soybean growers and has urged the Trump administration to negotiate with China [15]. - Despite the mounting pressure from farmers, the Trump administration has not taken significant action to reverse tariff policies, which complicates potential trade negotiations with China [15][16]. Group 3: Alternative Markets for China - China has alternative sources for soybeans, including domestic production and imports from South America, which reduces its dependency on U.S. soybeans [4][5]. - Brazil has capitalized on the situation, with soybean exports to China exceeding 30 million tons in the first half of the year, benefiting from the U.S. trade policies [18]. Group 4: Consequences of the Crisis - The surplus of unsold soybeans has led to a buildup in storage, financial losses for processing plants, and potential bankruptcies among farmers [12][13]. - The agricultural downturn poses significant risks to the U.S. economy, particularly affecting rural communities and employment in the agricultural sector [14][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The USDA report for 2025/26 shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre is slightly lower than last month but higher than analysts' expectations, with increased production and ending stocks, which is generally bearish. In the Canadian market, the 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to increase, while exports are expected to decline. For domestic rapeseed meal, the short - term supply pressure is reduced due to less near - month arrivals, and the demand is seasonally increasing, but the substitution of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The rapeseed meal market is expected to be volatile. For domestic rapeseed oil, the overall supply and demand is loose, but the low oil mill operating rate and limited near - month purchases ease the supply pressure, and the market trend is relatively strong [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 10,053 yuan/ton, up 153 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal is 2,518 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; the closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 632.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 4.5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed is 5,330 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2] - Month - to - month spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 467 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) is 121 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Open interest: The open interest of the main rapeseed oil contract is 333,040 lots; the open interest of the main rapeseed meal contract is 376,582 lots, down 17,074 lots [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: The net long positions of rapeseed oil are 26,789 lots, up 8,398 lots; the net long positions of rapeseed meal are - 14,068 lots, up 15,904 lots [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 8,202, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 10,214, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,940 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2,620 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9,400 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Average price and import cost: The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,005 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7,899.85 yuan/ton, down 50.05 yuan [2] - Basis and price spreads: The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 40 yuan/ton, down 143 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 102 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 410 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual rapeseed production forecast is 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged; the total rapeseed import volume is 17.6 tons, down 0.85 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 15 tons, up 4 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal is 27.03 tons, up 7.56 tons [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory of oil mills is 10 tons, unchanged; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 12.79%, down 0.27 percentage points; the imported rapeseed crushing profit is 763 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 8.65 tons, down 1.05 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, down 0.05 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 52.12 tons, down 1.08 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 30 tons, down 1.51 tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 4.1 tons, down 0.45 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 20 tons, down 1.3 tons [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 3.03 tons, up 0.77 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 2.74 tons, down 0.15 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2,827.3 tons, down 110.4 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 476.9 tons, up 41.8 tons [2] - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 4,504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.48%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.48%, up 0.12 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.49%, down 0.3 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.49%, down 0.3 percentage points [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 15.96%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 22.2%, up 0.01 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 7.91%, up 0.42 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 12.74%, down 0.48 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Canadian rapeseed futures market on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed lower on Monday. The benchmark contract fell 1.16% due to the rapid progress of rapeseed harvesting in the prairie region and weak rapeseed exports. The decline in the external vegetable oil market also exerted downward pressure [2] - The USDA report shows that the estimated US soybean yield per acre in 2025/26 is 53.5 bushels, with increased production and ending stocks. The report is generally bearish [2] - The USDA report also shows that the Canadian rapeseed production in 2025/26 is expected to increase by 750,000 tons to 20 million tons, exports are expected to decrease by 900,000 tons to 6.7 million tons, domestic consumption is expected to increase by 500,000 tons to 12 million tons, and ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.34 million tons to 2.954 million tons [2] 3.8 Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Bullish factors: Near - month rapeseed arrivals are scarce, reducing supply pressure. The aquaculture season boosts the seasonal demand for rapeseed meal. The implementation of temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed weakens the long - term supply [2] - Bearish factors: The good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The Canadian Minister of Agriculture is considering measures to avoid Chinese tariffs on Canadian rapeseed, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed is being realized [2] - Market trend: The rapeseed meal market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and short - term trading is recommended [2] 3.9 Rapeseed Oil View Summary - Bullish factors: The low operating rate of oil mills eases the production pressure of rapeseed oil. Near - month rapeseed purchases are limited, reducing supply pressure. The Ministry of Commerce has extended the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, restricting purchases [2] - Bearish factors: The boost from the start of the school term to terminal consumption is limited, and the domestic vegetable oil supply and demand is still loose [2] - Market trend: The rapeseed oil market has a relatively strong trend, and attention should be paid to China - Canada and China - US trade policies [2]

Core Insights - The preliminary consumer confidence index for September in the U.S. is reported at 55.4, reflecting a 4.8% decrease from August and a 21% year-over-year decline [1] Economic Conditions - The current economic conditions index stands at 61.2, showing a 0.8% decrease month-over-month and a 3.3% decrease year-over-year [1] - The consumer expectations index is at 51.8, which is a 7.3% decrease from the previous month and a 30.4% decline compared to the same period last year [1] Consumer Sentiment - U.S. consumers are increasingly concerned about multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, including the business environment, labor market, and inflation risks [1] - There is a notable awareness among consumers regarding personal financial risks, with both current and expected personal financial conditions declining by approximately 8% in September [1] Trade Policy Impact - Trade policy remains a critical issue for U.S. consumers, with about 60% mentioning tariff issues during interviews, showing little change from the previous month [1] Inflation Expectations - Consumers' inflation expectations for the next year remain stable at 4.8%, unchanged from August [1] - Long-term inflation expectations have risen for the second consecutive month to 3.9% [1]

Core Insights - U.S. consumer sentiment declined for the second consecutive month in September, with the Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 55.4 from 58.2 in August, marking the lowest level since May [1] - Economists had anticipated a reading of 58.0, indicating a more pessimistic outlook than expected [1] Economic Vulnerabilities - Consumers are increasingly aware of vulnerabilities in the economy, particularly regarding business conditions, labor markets, and inflation [2] - Current and expected personal finances have decreased by approximately 8% this month, reflecting concerns about economic stability [3] Inflation Expectations - The survey indicated that consumer expectations for inflation over the next year remained steady at 4.8%, while expectations for inflation over the next five years increased from 3.5% to 3.9% [3] - Trade policy, especially tariffs, continues to be a significant concern for consumers, with around 60% mentioning tariffs during interviews [3] Overall Economic Sentiment - Households have expressed a generally negative outlook on the economy for 2025, primarily due to fears that aggressive tariff measures by the government will lead to higher goods prices and reduced purchasing power [4]