贸易政策

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印尼官员:除酒精饮料和猪肉外,所有进口到印尼的美国商品都将享受零关税。
news flash· 2025-07-18 05:52
印尼官员:除酒精饮料和猪肉外,所有进口到印尼的美国商品都将享受零关税。 ...
零售与就业双强、美联储官员“放鹰” 金价上演“深V”行情
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-18 03:32
Core Viewpoint - The recent strong U.S. economic data has put short-term pressure on gold prices, while geopolitical tensions and tariff risks continue to provide support for the gold market [1][2][4]. Economic Data Impact - U.S. retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, with core retail sales rising by 0.5%, indicating a moderate recovery in consumer spending [2]. - Initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 221,000, the lowest level in three months, suggesting a stable labor market that supports consumer spending [2]. Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy, with some members advocating for maintaining restrictive policies to curb inflation, while others support rate cuts [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September is currently at 54%, with a 30% chance for action in July [3]. Trade Risks and Market Reactions - The Trump administration is in urgent negotiations with Japan regarding a 25% tariff, with a deadline of August 1 for an agreement [4]. - A significant increase of 44% in Swiss gold exports in June indicates that some institutions are still accumulating physical gold as a hedge against potential policy and market risks [4]. Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Gold prices are currently under pressure from macroeconomic factors, but the outlook for the second half of the year will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the actual implementation of Trump's trade policies [4][5]. - Technically, gold prices remain in a long-term uptrend, with a critical support level at $3,300 per ounce, and potential resistance levels at $3,350 and $3,380 per ounce [5].
大摩前知名空头:美股本季度或至多跌10%,但“绝对”是抄底机会!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-18 02:56
"盈利修正广度正在爆发,"威尔逊说,"企业在应对关税方面很有一套,这一点无可否认。" 曾是华尔街最坚定空头之一的摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师迈克·威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示,美股牛市正 在形成,但标普500指数本季度可能先遭遇一波冲击。 他认为,受美国总统特朗普贸易政策对企业资产负债表的影响,美股本季度可能下跌5%-10%。但这一下跌 将是短暂的,会为投资者提供一个极具吸引力的入场点——最终,企业盈利增长预期的改善将推动股市上 涨。 "这就是新一轮牛市初期的样子,"威尔逊周四在接受彭博社《Surveillance》采访时说,"它的爆发力很强,不 会给人太多入场机会。变化速度超出预期,正在加速。" 他补充道,任何回调都将"时间短、幅度浅",而且他"绝对会"在回调时买入。 标普500指数周四再创历史新高,其反弹之惊人,以至于市值在短短几个月内就增加了约11.5万亿美元。4月 初,特朗普对全球贸易伙伴加征全面关税后,该指数一度濒临熊市;一周后,他决定暂停关税,点燃了这波 最新的市场热情。 在市场波动期间,威尔逊是少数几位对美股保持乐观的华尔街预测人士之一。他的许多同行曾迅速下调展 望,但随着市场反弹至新高 ...
摩根士丹利:美股短期回调风险加剧,标普500或先跌5%-10%
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-07-18 02:52
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is poised for a new bull market, but short-term risks should be monitored [1][3] Group 1: Market Outlook - The S&P 500 index may decline by 5% to 10% within the current quarter due to pressure on corporate earnings from President Trump's trade policies, but this pullback is expected to be "temporary and mild," providing a buying opportunity for investors [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has risen over 20% since its low in April, with a market capitalization increase of approximately $11.5 trillion [3] Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - Recent broad tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration are beginning to impact corporate balance sheets, with the third-quarter earnings season expected to reflect these effects for the first time [3] - The number of industries with upward earnings revisions has significantly increased, indicating that companies are gradually absorbing the impact of tariffs [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent market rally has been primarily driven by a few technology giants, while cyclical sectors such as financials and industrials have not fully participated [3] - If trade risks lead to a broader earnings revision, funds may shift from growth stocks to value stocks, resulting in a more balanced rise in the index components [3] Group 4: Investor Sentiment - The market oscillates between fear and greed, and the key is to distinguish between temporary pullbacks and structural bear markets, with corporate earnings trajectories serving as the ultimate judge [3]
水产养殖旺季来临 菜籽粕总体有所上涨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-17 07:16
Group 1 - The domestic oilseed market shows a bullish trend, particularly in rapeseed meal futures, which experienced a price increase of 2.49%, reaching a high of 2723.00 CNY/ton [1] - The market is currently in a seasonal peak for aquaculture feed consumption, but the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal is considered poor, leading to price pressure from soybean meal due to seasonal inventory accumulation [1][2] - The new season's rapeseed production is expected to increase, but tight supply from the previous season keeps prices firm, with domestic rapeseed imports expected to decline significantly from July to September [2] Group 2 - The European Union and Canada are experiencing low rainfall, affecting soil moisture for canola planting, while global canola production is recovering but planting area is down year-on-year [2] - Domestic oil mills are seeing a reduction in rapeseed meal inventory, but year-on-year levels remain high, with a significant drop in imports due to high tariffs and strong old crop canola prices [2] - The market is currently facing uncertainty due to trade policies, with domestic meal prices showing stronger performance compared to international markets, and short-term price movements are expected to remain within a range [2]
林天顺:7.16美联储降息预期升温,晚间黄金白银布局策略
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 13:42
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent inflation report has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates unchanged, resulting in a rise in the US dollar index and a decline in gold and silver prices [1][2]. - The spot gold price experienced a drop of 0.56%, closing at $3324.96 per ounce, marking a second consecutive day of decline [1]. - Spot silver fell by 1.15%, closing below the $38 mark at $37.7 per ounce [1]. Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold is facing resistance around the $3342-$3343 range, with potential upward movement towards $3365-$3366 if this level is surpassed [2]. - A significant support level for gold is identified at $3300, with further support at $3283-$3282, and a potential decline towards the July low of $3248-$3247 if these levels are breached [2]. - For silver, key support is at the psychological level of $38.00 and the 50-period simple moving average at $37.23, while resistance remains at the year-to-date high of $39.13 [4].
赵兴言:黄金波幅变缓3343空单利润有限!晚间反弹继续空!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 13:33
Group 1 - The international gold price increased due to the decline in the US dollar and US Treasury yields, as investors digested last month's consumer price increase data and awaited further clarity on President Trump's trade policies [1] - The US dollar index fell from a one-month high, making gold more attractive to holders of other currencies, while rising US inflation strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would maintain current interest rates for a longer period [1] - The probability of a rate cut in September dropped from nearly 60% before the data release to about 52% [1] Group 2 - The gold market showed signs of weakness, with the first resistance level at 3343-45, but the lowest point reached was only 3333, indicating limited downward momentum [3] - The current trend remains unchanged, with a short bearish outlook retained, but upcoming data releases may lead to fluctuations in gold prices [3] - The hourly moving averages have flattened, indicating a stalemate in short-term bullish and bearish trends, with key resistance levels at 3343 and 3355 [3][5]
谈判前夕 - 港股&海外周论
2025-07-16 06:13
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. stock market, Hong Kong stock market, and the Indian market Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Stock Market Outlook** - The resilience of inflation may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, impacting market expectations for rate reductions [1] - As of May 11, 2025, nearly 78% of U.S. companies have reported Q1 earnings, indicating a strong earnings season [1] - The second half of the year is expected to release positive news for corporate earnings, including tax cuts and regulatory relaxations [2] 2. **Gold Market Insights** - Among the 12 major gold ETFs, only 5 have seen increased holdings, with a notable decline in the number of shares held [2] - The week saw a 0.7% decrease in gold trust holdings compared to the previous week, indicating a trend of institutional selling and retail buying [2] 3. **Hong Kong Stock Market Trends** - The Hang Seng Index has been in a rebound trend for four consecutive weeks, currently above 25,000 [3] - Market sentiment regarding tariff negotiations is cautious, with no optimistic expectations for immediate results [3][4] - The potential for a defensive market strategy is suggested, with a slight improvement in risk appetite compared to the previous month [5] 4. **Investment Strategy Recommendations for Hong Kong** - Focus on AI technology and domestic consumption sectors, while also considering high-yield investments as a defensive measure [7] - The global narrative around technology remains strong, with positive earnings from U.S. tech companies boosting market expectations [7][8] 5. **Indian Market Perspective** - The Indian market is viewed positively despite recent declines, as it is seen as a defensive asset with limited negative impact from global tariffs [10] - Foreign capital is gradually flowing into the Indian stock market, indicating a long-term positive outlook [11] 6. **General Market Sentiment** - The overall sentiment for both U.S. and Hong Kong markets remains cautious, with expectations of potential rebounds but also recognition of underlying risks [12][13] - The discussion highlights the importance of geopolitical risks and their impact on market dynamics, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [6][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for early dividend payouts by companies in anticipation of currency pressures later in the year [8] - The need for a careful assessment of tariff negotiations and their implications for market performance [4][13] - The emphasis on maintaining a balanced investment approach that considers both growth opportunities and defensive strategies in light of global uncertainties [9][12]
冠通期货早盘速递-20250715
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 05:50
Group 1: Hot News - China's social financing scale increment in the first half of this year was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [2] - China's total value of goods trade imports and exports in the first half of this year was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. In June, exports, imports, and overall trade all increased [2] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on July 15 to introduce the economic performance in the first half of 2025 [2] - Chinese coal enterprises are urged to implement the medium - and long - term power coal contract system and promote market balance [2] - US President Trump urges Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement, threatens 100% secondary tariffs, and plans to impose new tariffs on multiple countries from August 1 [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, plastic, lithium carbonate, rebar, and soybean meal [4] - Night - session performance: non - metallic building materials rose 2.79%, precious metals 28.63%, oilseeds 12.36%, etc. [4] Group 3: Sector Holdings - Information on the five - day change in commodity futures sector holdings is presented, but specific data is in graphical form [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% daily, S&P 500 0.14%, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.08% daily [6] - Commodity: CRB commodity index was flat daily, WTI crude oil fell 2.38% [6] - Others: US dollar index rose 0.24% daily, CBOE volatility was flat [6]
为躲关税 达美航空出奇招:拆发动机
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-07-15 03:42
Group 1 - Delta Airlines has disassembled newly purchased Airbus A321neo aircraft in Europe to avoid a 10% tariff imposed by the Trump administration on imported aircraft from Europe [2][3] - The engines removed from the new aircraft, manufactured by Pratt & Whitney in the U.S., are being shipped back to the U.S. to be installed on older aircraft that were grounded due to engine issues [2][3] - Delta Airlines CEO Ed Bastian stated that the company does not intend to pay tariffs on the delivered aircraft, highlighting the impact of trade policies on corporate operations [3] Group 2 - The new Airbus A321neo aircraft are currently parked in Europe due to unapproved seat specifications by U.S. regulators, preventing them from entering commercial service [3] - Delta Airlines has previously employed similar strategies to circumvent import costs, including rerouting aircraft through Japan and other locations [3] - The actions taken by Delta Airlines reflect a broader struggle between companies and government trade policies, showcasing the influence of global supply chains [3]