Market Overview - The market experienced a decline with shrinking trading volume, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors as they await clarity on trade policies [2][12][15] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.95%, closing at 3839.76 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index saw declines of 3.04% and 3.36% respectively [6][7] - The decline was attributed to several factors, including a drop in trading volume below 2 trillion yuan for two consecutive days, concerns over the performance of the technology sector amidst the earnings season, and uncertainties related to tariff negotiations [2][12][15] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking and public utilities showed strength, while technology stocks faced significant selling pressure [3][8] - The precious metals sector saw a notable increase due to rising international gold prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [9][10] - Coal stocks also performed well, supported by anticipated improvements in economic conditions and potential policy measures in the fourth quarter [10] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a dual approach, focusing on defensive assets in the short term while positioning for growth in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and robotics in the medium term [3][13] - Emphasis is placed on selecting stocks with solid earnings or future earnings potential, while avoiding technology stocks that have risen significantly without performance support [3][13] - There is a recommendation to monitor cyclical sectors and consumer demand for potential rebounds, particularly in undervalued core assets or blue-chip stocks [3][13]

Group 1 - U.S. stock indices rose across the board last week, with the Dow Jones up 1.56%, S&P 500 up 1.7%, and Nasdaq up 2.14%, driven by strong tech stocks and easing risk sentiment in bank stocks [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, originally scheduled for October 15, will now be released on October 24, which is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] - The upcoming CPI report is highly anticipated due to its proximity to the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on October 28-29, with expectations of another rate cut [2] Group 2 - Gold prices have seen a significant increase of over 60% this year, driven by geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and a shift of funds from the dollar to gold [6] - Major investment banks have raised their gold price targets for 2026, with Bank of America setting a target of $5000 per ounce and Goldman Sachs raising its forecast to $4900 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 14% increase from previous estimates [6] - The strong performance of gold is supported by expectations of continued central bank purchases and a diversified reserve structure in emerging markets, alongside anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for oilseeds is experiencing a downward trend, particularly in canola meal futures, which are influenced by trade policies and inventory levels [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Canola meal futures opened at 2366.00 CNY/ton and experienced a decline, with a maximum of 2376.00 CNY and a minimum of 2308.00 CNY, reflecting a drop of approximately 2.24% [1]. - As of October 16, the average spot price for canola meal was reported at 2533.68 CNY/ton, which is 169.68 CNY/ton higher than the futures price [1]. Group 2: Export and Inventory Data - According to the Canadian Grain Commission, canola seed exports increased by 97.8% to 159,200 tons for the week ending October 12, compared to 80,500 tons the previous week [1]. - On October 16, the number of canola meal futures warehouse receipts was 8,699, a decrease of 390 from the previous trading day [1]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Zhonghui Futures indicates that trade policies and high inventory levels are creating mixed factors for canola meal, suggesting a range-bound market [2]. - Ruida Futures notes that the lack of substantial progress in China-Canada trade negotiations will limit canola seed imports in Q4, while the demand for canola meal may decline due to reduced aquaculture needs and the availability of soybean meal as a substitute [2].

Economic Forecast - Switzerland's government has cut its 2026 economic growth forecast to 0.9%, down from a previous estimate of 1.2% due to the impact of U.S. tariffs [2] - The economy is expected to grow by 1.3% this year, which is considered "significantly below-average" for the country [2] Trade Impact - The U.S. is Switzerland's top export destination, and the country faced a 39% tariff on goods sent to the U.S. after failed negotiations [3] - Key exports include watches, pharmaceuticals, and precious metals, with branded pharma products now subject to 100% tariffs unless produced in the U.S. [4] Economic Challenges - Swiss officials noted that the current trade policy environment presents significant challenges, with additional tariffs burdening export-oriented sectors [6] - The rising Swiss franc, gaining over 12% this year, adds to economic woes by putting downward pressure on prices [7] Risks and Forecast Adjustments - Risks for the Swiss economy are increasing, with exposure to the U.S. market amounting to 4% of GDP [11] - A senior economist revised the growth forecast for 2026 down to 0.8%, indicating a cumulative direct impact of U.S. tariffs on Swiss GDP of about 0.86% in the first two years [11] Recession Outlook - A fall in goods exports and declining investment are expected to lead the Swiss economy into recession in the second half of this year, with GDP projected to fall by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3 and Q4 [13]

Core Viewpoint - Shares of Bunge Global SA increased by over 13% following President Donald Trump's statement regarding the potential cessation of U.S. purchases of Chinese cooking oil [1] Company Summary - Bunge Global SA experienced a significant stock price surge, indicating a positive market reaction to geopolitical developments affecting trade [1] Industry Summary - The announcement from President Trump suggests a shift in U.S. trade policy that could impact the cooking oil market, particularly concerning imports from China [1]

Core Viewpoint - Greebo has established production bases in China, Vietnam, and the United States, achieving strategic synergy and cost parity in production between Vietnam and China [1] Group 1: Production and Manufacturing - The products shipped to the United States are manufactured in Vietnam, which has advanced manufacturing capabilities to meet the company's vertical manufacturing requirements [1] - The Vietnam base has achieved economies of scale, making production costs comparable to those in China [1] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - In the short term, the company's global business layout and supply chain arrangements have mitigated significant impacts from U.S. tariff policies on sales [1] - Long-term effects remain uncertain due to the complex and changing international trade environment, which could affect global supply chain costs, market access, and competitive landscape [1] Group 3: Strategic Response - The company will continue to monitor trade policy developments and dynamically assess potential impacts [1] - Strategies include optimizing global layouts, diversifying market approaches, and flexible capacity allocation to achieve stable growth in a complex environment [1]

Group 1 - The global economic landscape in 2025 will prominently feature the performances of the US, China, and Russia, with the US maintaining a GDP of approximately 216 trillion RMB, showcasing its strong economic power [3] - China's GDP is projected to reach around 141.75 trillion RMB, with a growth target of 5% for 2025, reflecting a robust economic stance [3][16] - Russia's GDP is expected to decline to 16 trillion RMB, with a growth forecast reduced from 2.5% to 1.5%, indicating significant economic challenges [5][13] Group 2 - The US economy, while appearing strong with a GDP of 216 trillion RMB, faces underlying issues such as persistent inflation and declining domestic purchasing power [7][9] - The US national debt has surpassed 37 trillion USD, leading to an average debt burden of 110,000 USD per citizen, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [9] - In contrast, China is effectively managing its local debt and is close to completing a 2 trillion RMB debt swap, indicating a healthier fiscal position compared to the US [20] Group 3 - China's economic resilience is attributed to technological advancements and industrial upgrades, with significant growth in exports, particularly in automobiles and ships [18] - The shift in China's export structure and its non-hegemonic approach to international relations contribute to its stable economic growth [18][22] - Russia's economy, while showing some resilience through increased oil exports and new trade partnerships, remains heavily impacted by sanctions and military expenditures [15][22] Group 4 - The contrasting economic trajectories of the three nations highlight the importance of long-term sustainability over short-term gains, with the US facing "low growth, high consumption" challenges, Russia struggling under sanctions, and China demonstrating steady progress [20][24] - The future global economic order will depend on each country's ability to address internal challenges and seize development opportunities [24]

美东时间周一，在特朗普软化贸易立场以及AI资本支出热潮持续等利好的推动下，美股迎来全面反 弹，华尔街主要股指大幅收高。 此前，美国总统特朗普对贸易紧张局势发表了缓和的言论，缓解了投资者的担忧情绪。 Wolfe Research美国政策主管Tobin Marcus指出，贸易政策方面的不确定性依然存在，但特朗普这些表态 暂时缓解了市场对加征关税或出口管制措施等风险的担忧。"特朗普似乎是在告诉投资者，可以放心抄 底，鉴于今年投资者多次在看似高风险的情况下买入并获利，我们预计市场会接受这一信号。" 摩根大通、高盛、花旗集团及富国银行将于周二公布季度财报，这也标志着本轮财报季正式开启，投资 者将密切关注关税对华尔街大型金融机构盈利的影响。 由于美国政府仍在停摆中，主要官方经济数据发布延迟，财报结果将成为评估经济健康状况的重要线 索。 根据LSEG数据，分析师平均预计标普500成份股公司第三季度盈利同比增长8.8%。 在OpenAI宣布与博通达成合作，联合生产其首款自主设计的人工智能处理器后，AI相关科技股成为周 一反弹行情的最大赢家。 CFRA Research首席投资策略师Sam Stovall表示："AI依然是市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term M01 may rebound due to the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, but the rebound height is limited by the uncertainty of Sino - US trade policies and the high domestic soybean meal inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to Sino - US policies, South American La Nina weather speculation, and US soybean yield adjustments [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The USDA's estimated yield per acre of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season may be further reduced. Brazilian soybean planting has started smoothly, with a sowing rate of 8.2% as of October 4. In October, domestic soybean stocks are expected to decline, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. Under the Sino - Canadian trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink, while the opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [4]. - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the supply in the distant months. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio and a high feed addition ratio. The downstream spot trading of soybean meal is good, while the downstream trading of rapeseed meal is cautious [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean stocks have reached a high level. This week, the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has slightly decreased, and the inventory is at a high level. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased. Domestic rapeseed stocks have declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal stocks have been continuously depleted, but the inventory level is still at a high level in the same period of previous years [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [4]. - **Profit**: The profit of Brazilian soybean crushing has deteriorated, while the profit of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [4]. - **Valuation**: From the perspective of crushing profit, the futures price of soybean meal is at a relatively low valuation. From the perspective of basis, the recent price of soybean meal futures is at a neutral valuation [4]. - **Macro and Policy**: The Ministry of Transport's announcement of charging special port fees for US ships is expected to increase the cost of some soybean imports and ocean freight. Trump's announcement of imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese - imported goods has escalated the Sino - US trade tension [4]. - **Investment View**: The market is expected to be volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and arbitrage is on hold. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [4]. Part Two: Fundamental Data on Supply and Demand of Meal Products - **Inventory - Consumption Ratio**: In September, the inventory - consumption ratio of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season increased, while the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio decreased. The inventory - consumption ratio of rapeseed increased [33][39]. - **US Soybean Situation**: The sowing rate and excellent - good rate of US soybeans are presented. The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has slightly declined. The export sales performance of US soybeans is poor [48][53][65]. - **Import and Price**: The CNF premium of soybeans, the import price of Canadian rapeseed, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real are shown. The monthly import volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China is also provided [72][75][77]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal in China is at different levels. The inventory of soybeans is at a high level, soybean meal has a slight reduction in inventory, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have increased [80]. - **Trading Volume and Consumption**: The trading volume and consumption of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented. The spot trading volume of soybean meal has increased, but the holiday pick - up volume has declined [103]. - **Price Difference and Feed Production**: The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the monthly feed production are shown [115][117]. - **Breeding Situation**: The breeding profits and related data of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are presented, including the decline in pig prices and the high weight of pigs [119][123][127]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [8700] price level. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the medium - long term, considering the tight supply situation in Southeast Asia and biodiesel policy support. However, short - term fluctuations are significant due to trade and biodiesel news [3]. - Soybean oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [7700] price level. The y2601 contract is expected to follow other oils in a relatively strong oscillation. The supply is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter in China, affected by factors such as the decline in soybean arrivals and uncertain Sino - US trade relations [3]. - Rapeseed oil: The downside space is limited, with support at the [9600] price level. The Ol601 contract is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly. The 2024/25 global rapeseed inventory pressure is limited, and the 2025/26 production is expected to recover, which may suppress the price. Attention should be paid to the production realization in major producing countries [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Since the holiday, BMD crude palm oil has been oscillating strongly, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. However, on Friday, the MPOB report showed higher - than - expected inventory, and the overall oil price declined. The tariff war and the sharp drop in international crude oil are expected to lead to a short - term weakening of palm oil [13][14]. - **Supply and Demand in Malaysia**: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.73% month - on - month, imports increased by 33.95% month - on - month, exports increased by 7.69% month - on - month, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month. From October 1 - 10, the export volume increased compared with the same period in September [15]. - **Supply and Demand in Indonesia**: As of July, Indonesia's inventory remained at a historical low. The production in July was 5.6 million tons, the export volume was 3.007 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory was 2.57 million tons. The export continued to grow faster than the production, and the inventory remained at a historical low. The reference price of crude palm oil in October was set at $983.61 per ton, and the export tax remained at $124 per ton. The implementation of the B0 policy in the first half of the year was relatively good, and the government is accelerating the implementation of the B50 policy [15]. - **Indian Market**: India's palm oil imports decreased significantly in January - April, and the inventory reached a low level. From May to August, imports continued to grow, and it is expected to remain at a high level in September to support the exports of Indonesia and Malaysia. The cost - performance of international soybean oil is slightly lower than that of palm oil, but the subsequent imports are still expected to remain at a relatively high level [32]. 3.2 Soybean and Soybean Oil - **US Market**: Recently, CBOT soybean futures first rose and then fell. The supply pressure of US soybeans is emerging as they enter the harvest season, but the reduction in planting area and the increase in consumption have tightened the supply. The US EPA's biofuel policy is unclear, which has increased market uncertainty. The future weather in the main soybean - producing states in the US may affect the harvest [50][51][53]. - **South American Market**: According to the USDA's September forecast for the 2025/26 season, Brazil's soybean production will increase to 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and it is expected that the premium of Brazilian soybeans will remain strong. Argentina has restored the export tax on soybeans, and it is expected that the premium in South America will also remain strong [76]. - **Domestic Market**: In the short term, the supply of domestic soybeans and soybean oil is relatively loose, but it is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter. The 40th week (September 27 - October 3) of soybean oil production was 833,600 tons, and the 41st week is expected to be 257,800 tons. The trading volume has decreased significantly [109][112]. 3.3 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Global Market**: In the 2024/25 season, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally, and the carry - over inventory decreased significantly. In the 2025/26 season, the USDA expects a recovery in production, and the supply - demand contradiction is expected to be limited. The Chinese government has imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports, and the Canadian government is trying to negotiate [85]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but the subsequent rapeseed purchases are expected to decline, and the supply in the far - month is expected to tighten. As of October 3, the coastal rapeseed oil production was 8,200 tons, and the delivery volume was 0 tons. With the decrease in rapeseed crushing, the rapeseed oil production may decline significantly [110][112]. 3.4 Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: After the holiday, the oils first rose and then fell, and the center of gravity remained basically unchanged. The short - term oils are expected to be weak, and the meal may perform better than the oils. In the medium - long term, palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be oscillating strongly, and soybean oil will follow other oils [108][109][110]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of palm oil in China is relatively loose, the supply of soybean oil is expected to turn tight at the end of the fourth quarter, and the supply of rapeseed oil is expected to tighten in the far - month. The trading volume of palm oil has increased slightly, the trading volume of soybean oil has decreased significantly, and the production of rapeseed oil may decline significantly [109][110][112].