新华社洛杉矶12月28日电（记者黄恒）美国加利福尼亚州多家地方媒体28日集体刊登同一篇社论，抨击 特朗普政府贸易政策。 ...

新华社洛杉矶12月28日电（记者黄恒）美国加利福尼亚州多家地方媒体28日集体刊登同一篇社论，抨击 特朗普政府贸易政策。 南加州新闻集团在加州南部地区拥有近20家地方媒体，覆盖该地区主要县市，包括《洛杉矶日报》《奥 兰治县纪事报》《圣贝纳迪诺太阳报》等。 美国总统特朗普12月8日在白宫宣布，联邦政府将为美国农民提供规模为120亿美元的救助。特朗普政府 今年早些时候出台大范围加征关税政策，扰乱全球贸易秩序，结果导致美国出口市场受阻。美国大豆和 玉米等农产品售价低迷，加上化肥和农用机械成本升高，美国农场经营难以盈利，不少农民陷入困境。 （完） 文章指出，美国关税政策存在根本性缺陷，在对外贸易方面的理解"错误且过时"。在全球化时代，关税 对增加美国联邦收入不再发挥重要作用。相反，"贸易战将对美国经济造成灾难性后果，损害消费者利 益，破坏美国最具生产力的企业，减缓经济增长，并损害美国与世界各国的关系"。 文章认为，特朗普政府12月初宣布为美国农民提供规模为120亿美元的救助，目的是掩盖其自身制造的 问题，因为大部分接受补贴农户的产品之前本可顺畅销售到海外。文章强调，美国政府不应该用贸易战 先把农民销往海外产品的通路堵死 ...

Core Insights - The global trade policy environment is expected to deteriorate significantly between 2024 and 2025, with an increase in protectionism and heightened tensions among major powers [1][4] - The number of restrictive trade measures implemented by countries reached 272 during the review period, marking the second-highest level since the monitoring mechanism was established in 2009 [1] - The total trade value affected by these restrictive measures surged from $888 billion to $2.966 trillion, more than doubling in the report period [1] - The share of global imports impacted by existing restrictive measures rose from 12.6% to 19.7% [1] Trade Policy and Industry Relations - Governments have significantly increased supportive policies in agriculture, environment, and energy sectors, particularly through non-financial measures [2] - New policies in the environment and energy sectors include emission standards, public procurement preferences for low-carbon products, and reforms to promote clean energy [2] - Agricultural policies are closely linked to food security and supply chain stability, with measures aimed at ensuring food supply safety and reducing import dependency [2] - The report highlights that many new industrial policy measures are not traditional subsidies but rather non-financial support, indicating a stronger government intervention in key sectors [2] Resilience of Global Trade Activities - Despite the tense global trade environment, trade activities are expected to grow stronger than anticipated, with a revised global goods trade growth forecast of 2.4% for 2025 [3] - AI-related products are driving significant trade growth, contributing nearly half of the global trade increase, despite accounting for less than one-sixth of total trade [3] - Approximately 72% of global goods trade continues to operate under the most-favored-nation principle, demonstrating the resilience of the multilateral trade system [3] Future Trade Outlook - The report presents a cautious outlook for global trade, predicting a slowdown due to geopolitical uncertainties and rising risks to the global economic outlook [4] - It calls for enhanced cooperation among countries and reforms to address the current trade environment's risks, advocating for multilateral dialogue over unilateral actions [4] - Recommendations include improving transparency to reduce policy uncertainty and modernizing the multilateral trade system to ensure long-term stability [4] - The report also suggests strengthening standard coordination to prevent new technical trade barriers arising from increased regulatory divergence in environmental and agricultural policies [4]

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The global economy is experiencing significant downturns, with Switzerland reporting the largest economic contraction since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, attributed to the volatility in foreign trade linked to new U.S. tariff policies [3] - Japan's economy also contracted in the third quarter, primarily due to reduced exports, while Mexico's economy began to shrink as a result of the unpredictable trade policies of the Trump administration [4] - The Canadian manufacturing sector has lost 36,500 jobs since the beginning of the year, marking the lowest labor force number since September 2021, largely due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies [4][5] Group 2: Specific Industry Challenges - Brazilian coffee exporters are facing unprecedented challenges due to a 50% tariff on coffee exports to the U.S., resulting in a more than 50% decrease in U.S. imports of Brazilian coffee from August to November compared to the previous year [6] - China's exports to the U.S. fell by nearly 29% in November, while imports from the U.S. dropped by 19%, reflecting the ongoing trade tensions and high tariffs [7][8] - U.S. farmers, particularly soybean producers, have seen a significant drop in income due to China's tariff responses, although recent data indicates a resurgence in Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products [9][10] Group 3: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.5% and 3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut since September and the sixth since the current easing cycle began [12] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that inflation rates have exceeded the Fed's target, largely due to increased tariffs, and suggested that the current rate cuts may be sufficient, although worsening employment data raises expectations for further cuts [12][13] Group 4: Policy Adjustments - The Trump administration is expected to reverse many of the previous Biden administration's policies, including new offshore oil and gas leasing plans and changes to fuel economy standards for vehicles [14] - The Chinese government is implementing measures to support technological innovation and industry upgrades, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and investment to counter external economic pressures [16][17] Group 5: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that China's share of the global export market will increase from 15% to 16.5%, driven by advancements in manufacturing and technology sectors [19] - The U.S. manufacturing sector showed signs of improvement, with the ISM manufacturing PMI reported at 49.3, exceeding market expectations [19] - The ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have led to speculation about a significant agreement, although no formal confirmation has been made regarding the claimed "trillions of dollars" in purchases [19][20]

与瑞士央行的维稳立场形成鲜明对比的是，美联储此前如期实施25个基点降息，并释放出更为鸽派的政 策信号。美联储主席鲍威尔淡化通胀担忧，明确排除加息可能性，市场普遍预期2026年美联储将继续推 进货币宽松进程，直接导致美元指数承受下行压力，进一步放大了美元兑瑞郎的跌幅。这种政策周期的 错位成为当前汇价走势的核心结构性驱动因素——美联储已进入明确的降息通道，而瑞士央行因利率已 处于0%水平，政策宽松空间受到显著约束，这种不对称格局持续影响着两种货币的相对强弱关系。 通胀层面，瑞士物价形势持续低迷，11月消费者物价指数(CPI)同比涨幅降至0%，较8月的0.2%进一步 回落，主要受酒店住宿、房租及服装等领域价格下行拖累。基于此，瑞士央行下调了中期通胀预期，将 2026年通胀预期从0.5%下调至0.3%，2027年预期从0.7%下调至0.6%，反映出该行对未来物价压力的判 断更趋谨慎。尽管通胀低迷引发市场对瑞士央行进一步宽松的猜测，但结合其对负利率的谨慎态度，短 期政策调整概率较低。 经济增长方面，瑞士第三季度GDP因制药行业出口回调出现收缩，但其他制造业和服务业的温和增长部 分抵消了这一拖累；瑞士央行预计2025年G ...

Economic Growth Forecast - The Federal Reserve raised its economic growth forecast for 2026, projecting GDP to increase by 2.3%, up from a previous forecast of 1.8% [2] - Strong GDP growth is often associated with strong stock market returns, which is positive news for investors [3] Stock Market Performance - Wall Street anticipates another strong performance from the S&P 500 in 2026, with a projected index level of 7,968, indicating a potential upside of about 17% from its current level of 6,827 [8] - The S&P 500 has historically shown muted returns following interest rate cuts, averaging only 3% in the year after such cuts, compared to a long-term average return of about 10% [6][5] Earnings Growth Expectations - Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to grow by 13.1% in 2025 and 14.7% in 2026, driven by strong results from the information technology and materials sectors [9] - Factors contributing to this optimistic outlook include reductions in corporate taxes due to new deductions for R&D spending and equipment purchases, as well as the positive impact of artificial intelligence on revenue and operating margins [10] Valuation Concerns - The S&P 500 is currently trading at 22.5 times forward earnings, which is above its five-year average of 20 and ten-year average of 18.7, indicating that stocks are historically expensive [7]

Core Insights - Republican lawmakers are urging President Trump for additional farm relief and support for agricultural equipment manufacturers due to the adverse effects of his tariff policies on farmers and the equipment industry [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Farmers - Farmers are experiencing financial strain due to Trump's tariff policies, which have negatively affected their reliance on exports, particularly to China [2] - The combination of low commodity prices and high input costs, such as fertilizer, has forced farmers to reduce spending, impacting their ability to purchase new equipment [2][3] - The demand for new equipment has decreased, leading to layoffs at major manufacturers like Deere [2] Group 2: Manufacturer Perspectives - Deere's agriculture division president noted that the U.S. market is under significant pressure due to trade flow disruptions and escalating internal costs [3] - The Association of Equipment Manufacturers expressed concern that high tariffs on essential parts could inadvertently harm farmers and increase costs for consumers [3] Group 3: Legislative Actions and Proposals - Senator Chuck Grassley has communicated with the White House and relevant departments, advocating for targeted relief from tariffs for equipment manufacturers [4] - Other Republican senators, including John Hoeven, have discussed the need for aid to farmers regarding equipment costs during meetings with Trump [5] - Trump has suggested reducing regulatory burdens on equipment manufacturers to lower costs, contingent on those companies reducing their prices [6] Group 4: Challenges Ahead - There is skepticism about the feasibility of increasing farmers' income to enable them to purchase new equipment, given the already tight margins in farming operations [7][8]

Core Insights - Colombia's exports are expected to remain sluggish over the next two years, with projections indicating that export values may fall below $50 billion by 2025, and potentially decline further in 2026 [2] Group 1: Export Performance - The president of Colombia's Foreign Trade Association, Diaz, anticipates a continued decline in mineral energy exports due to government-led energy transition initiatives [2] - Coffee exports are expected to reach a historic peak in 2025, but both production and international prices are projected to decrease in 2026 [2] Group 2: Trade Policy and Competition - Concerns are raised regarding the direction of U.S. trade policies in 2026 and ongoing political tensions, which are believed to negatively impact Colombia's foreign trade performance [2] - The U.S. has recently adjusted tariff policies, reducing tariffs to zero on several Colombian agricultural products, including coffee, cocoa, avocado, and bananas; however, other products still require bilateral negotiations for tariff reductions [2] - Colombia faces competitive disadvantages as Brazil, Ecuador, and Central American countries are accelerating agreements with the U.S. [2]

特朗普对加拿大再发关税威胁。 据人民日报社主管的《国际金融报》报道，美国总统特朗普在12月8日于白宫举行的一场圆桌会议上威 胁称，为了提振美国国内化肥生产，"如有必要"会对加拿大进口化肥征收"非常高的关税"。 "很多（化肥）确实来自加拿大……因此，如果必须的话，我们将最终对其征收非常严厉的 关税，因为这是你想在这里（指美国）支持的方式。" 美国农业部长布鲁克·罗林斯表示，政府正在制定计划将化肥生产迁回美国，并指示化肥生产商降低价 格。据悉，美国农民依赖加拿大萨斯喀彻温省的钾肥补充土壤养分。加拿大超过90%的化肥用于出口， 其中一半以上销往美国。 根据化肥行业组织Fertilizer Canada的数据，加拿大生产的化肥约有95%用于出口，而美国是其最大的市 场，占每年化肥出口总量的一半以上。 鉴于美国市场对加拿大钾肥和氮肥的高度依赖，若新关税威胁落地，其可能迅速传导至终端市场，增加 美国农民的生产成本，并对依赖对美出口的加拿大生产商构成压力。 在发出关税威胁的同时，特朗普政府正准备一项120亿美元的农民援助计划。这项计划旨在为受贸易争 端影响的农民提供"急需的确定性"。农业部长Brooke Rollins透露 ...

Group 1 - Canada's unemployment rate dropped to a 16-month low of 6.5% in November, driven primarily by a significant increase in part-time jobs, with a net addition of 53,600 jobs for the month, totaling 181,000 since September [1][10][43] - The increase in part-time labor was concentrated in the healthcare and social assistance sectors, while government immigration policies contributed to a reduced labor force size, impacting the unemployment rate [1][34] - The youth unemployment rate (ages 15-24) improved, decreasing by 1.3 percentage points to 12.8% in November, marking the first significant improvement this year [2][34] Group 2 - The average hourly wage for formal employees remained steady at a 4% year-over-year growth in November, a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Bank of Canada [2][35] - Following the employment data release, the Canadian dollar strengthened, and market expectations for the Bank of Canada to maintain interest rates at 2.25% increased to approximately 93% [2][11][35] - The strong labor market data has diminished the likelihood of further rate cuts in 2026, with economists suggesting that discussions about rate hikes may be premature due to ongoing uncertainties in U.S. trade policies [10][44] Group 3 - In the U.S., consumer spending growth slowed to 0.3% in September, reflecting weakened economic momentum amid high living costs and a sluggish labor market [3][36] - The PCE price index rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year, marking the largest year-over-year increase since April 2024, driven by rising energy prices [4][38] - Economic forecasts indicate that consumer spending may remain robust in the third quarter, supporting overall economic growth, despite expectations of a significant slowdown in the fourth quarter [4][39] Group 4 - The Canadian real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with October home sales rebounding, indicating that lower interest rates are beginning to support the housing sector [10][44] - Analysts predict that national home prices, which fell by approximately 3.2% this year, are expected to rise by an average of 1.8% and 3.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [10][44] - The Canadian government has committed to investing CAD 280 billion over the next five years, with CAD 25 billion allocated for housing, to alleviate supply constraints [10][44]