Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have rebounded, reaching around $3,352 per ounce, with a notable increase of nearly $40 on Wednesday, closing at $3,348.20, reflecting a rise of approximately 1% [1] - The decline in the US dollar index, which fell by 0.13% to 98.20, has made gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating global demand [1] - Political pressures from President Trump on the Federal Reserve, including calls for the resignation of Governor Cook, have contributed to the weakening of the dollar, which in turn benefits gold as a hedge against political risk [2] Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed a split among decision-makers, with only two officials supporting a rate cut, while the majority preferred to maintain current rates, reinforcing market expectations for a potential rate cut in September [4] - Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by strong central bank demand, easing monetary policy, and a 30% chance of a recession in the next 12 months [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading within a consolidation range of $3,300 to $3,400, with short-term movements reflecting a triangular pattern, indicating potential volatility in the near term [8]

国际白银周三（8月20日）日K收涨，由于物价正呈现小幅回升态势，关税措施很可能进一步推高消费 价格，白银价格行情震荡，美市尾盘，国际白银收报37.89美元/盎司，上涨1.41%，日内最高上探37.93 美元/盎司，最低触及36.95美元/盎司。 美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示，截至8月20日，白银ETF持有量为15305.76吨，较上一交易 日减少33.90吨。 白银etf最新持仓数据： 白银etf最新持仓数据（2025年8月20日） | 日期 | 净持仓量（吨） | 净持仓量（盎司） | 总价值(万美元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-20 | 15305.76 | 492091710.3 | 1823929.83 | | 2025-08-19 | 15339.66 | 493181439.9 | 1877067.27 | （注：白银etf持仓增加，表明买盘增加，市场看涨白银的情绪升温，利多银价；白银etf持仓减少，表 明卖盘增加，市场看跌白银的情绪升温，利空银价。） 【要闻回顾】 通胀方面而言，物价正呈现小幅回升态势——核心消费者价格指数（CPI， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Recent major events have limited impact, with geopolitical and trade factors having little effect, and the full - fledged interest rate cut expectation may have limited driving force. The market focuses on the Fed's independence status at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting [48]. - Domestic commodities and the stock market are strong, pushing up the prices of gold and silver. With the marginal weakening of China's economic data in July, the expectation of policy intensification has risen again [48]. - Global central bank gold purchases have declined, with limited supportive effect [48]. - The pattern of silver being stronger than gold is hard to change for now. If the Fed restarts the interest rate cut cycle, it may change [48]. - Gold and silver prices are waiting for new driving factors. The current support from interest rate cut expectations, inflation expectations, and the US debt crisis remains unchanged, and the prices will likely continue to fluctuate [48]. - The Russia - Ukraine peace talks may make progress, but Trump's remarks add uncertainty. If a permanent cease - fire agreement is reached, gold and silver prices may decline [48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The report presents multiple charts on gold and silver price - related data, including the spread between Shanghai gold 12 - 6 and Shanghai silver 12 - 6, the US dollar index, the US - China exchange rate, the US 10 - year Treasury yield, the inflation expectation, the spot ratio of London and Shanghai gold and silver, and the performance of major global stock indices and gold and silver spot prices [14][17][20][22]. 3.2 Logical Analysis - Multiple factors influence gold and silver prices. Domestic "anti - involution" policies have led to the explosion of domestic commodity sectors, with silver prices being affected by the photovoltaic industry, resulting in a situation where silver is stronger than gold. Trade disputes have less market attention, and the weakening trend of US dollar assets has been broken. The significant increase in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the Fed's political pressure drive up gold and silver prices. The market expects two interest rate cuts this year, and the focus is on the Fed's independence. The global economy cooled in July, and any cooling of US economic data will boost the interest rate cut expectation. China's economic data in July showed a slowdown in some aspects, with a differentiation between domestic and external demand [25]. - The probability of an interest rate cut in September is 84.7%. The probability distribution of different target interest rate ranges at different time points is provided, and the number of expected interest rate cuts has changed over time, decreasing to 2 times on May 18 and July 22, remaining at 2 times on August 15, and increasing to 3 times after July 1 [28][31][32][34][35]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - A large amount of US macro - economic data from January 2024 to August 2025 is presented, covering GDP, foreign trade, economic sentiment indices, industrial, real estate, public and private sectors, employment, and inflation data [27]. 3.4 Position Data - For the top 20 positions in Shanghai gold, on August 15, 2025, the long - position volume decreased by 0.03% compared to the previous day, the short - position volume decreased by 0.06%, and the net position increased by 0.07%. For the top 20 positions in Shanghai silver, on August 15, 2025, the long - position volume decreased by 3.82%, the short - position volume decreased by 3.22%, and the net position decreased by 9.92% [38][41]. - Gold ETF positions increased fluctuantly, while silver ETF positions decreased fluctuantly, and the prices of both were in a fluctuating state. Shanghai gold inventory continued to increase, with the basis in July 1 - 2 yuan/gram higher than the same period. Arbitrage trading pushed up the inventory. COMEX gold inventory fluctuated and remained at the highest level in the past 5 years. Shanghai silver inventory decreased and was higher than the same period last year, while COMEX silver inventory remained at an absolute high [42][45][46]. 3.5 Summary - The impact of major events on gold and silver prices is limited. The interest rate cut expectation has limited driving force. The market focuses on the Fed's independence. Domestic economic policies and the performance of the commodity and stock markets affect gold and silver prices. The support from central bank gold purchases is limited. The pattern of silver being stronger than gold may change with the Fed's interest rate cut cycle. Gold and silver prices will likely continue to fluctuate, and the outcome of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks adds uncertainty to gold and silver prices [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The high - interest - rate environment affects consumption, and inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. - Domestic: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with weakening consumption and investment and declining credit demand. Exports provided support in July, but the pressure on exports may gradually emerge from September. - Asset Outlook: At the end of August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption. The global central bank summit in late August is also a window for speculating on Fed policies. As the economic growth slowdown pressure rises, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, and there are differences in CPI and PPI expectations. Inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing Fed decisions [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In July, the domestic economic growth rate slowed down. Exports provided support, but the "rush to import" from the US decreased in late July. Exports may remain resilient in August but face pressure from September [8]. - **Asset Views**: In late August, the market enters a verification period and a policy - preview window. With the economic slowdown, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Growth opportunities are spreading, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: An offensive strategy can be deployed, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season is turning to the off - season, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - restriction news, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: With continuous production - restriction expectations, the seventh round of price increases has started, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the extension of the tariff suspension between China and the US [9]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The spot is weakly stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [9]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The inventory - accumulation pressure continues, and it is expected to fluctuate downwards [11]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Asphalt**: The price at 3500 may turn from support to pressure, and it is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Hogs**: Affected by stricter transportation policies, the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate upwards, mainly in a range - bound pattern [11]. - **Pulp**: The price of coniferous wood pulp in US dollars has not increased, and it is expected to fluctuate [11].

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed a 50% tariff on 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products, indicating a deepening of trade protectionism [3] - This policy aims to protect the domestic steel and aluminum industries while posing new challenges to global supply chains and related sectors, affecting a wide range of industries from wind turbines to automotive parts [3] - The tariff policy may serve as a catalyst for adjusting trade relations, prompting countries to reassess their positions within global supply chains [3] Group 2 - The imposition of tariffs is expected to raise inflation expectations, exacerbate trade tensions, and increase economic uncertainty, which overall benefits silver prices [3] - Despite potential short-term pressure from a strengthening dollar, rising safe-haven demand and heightened inflation expectations are likely to drive silver prices higher [3] - In the silver market, key resistance levels are identified in the 8.651-8.800 range, while support levels are noted in the 8.400-8.573 range [4]

各位老铁周三好！我是帮主郑重，在财经圈摸爬滚打了20年，见过太多市场风浪。盘前咱们聊聊大宗商品——原油、黄金突然跳水，伦铜也跟着走低， 但背后的玄机比表面看到的更值得琢磨。 先说原油：停火预期升温，价格坐上过山车 特朗普最近像个"和平使者"，又是撮合普京和泽连斯基会晤，又是推动美俄乌三方会谈，市场一下子燃起停火预期，油价直接被按下去了。WTI原油跌了 1.7%，布伦特也跌超1%。不过有个细节得注意：俄罗斯的原油出口其实一直没断过，真正影响油价的是制裁放松的预期。就像BOK Financial的专家说 的，现在市场乐观情绪占上风，但欧洲派兵计划卡在德、意等国反对上，普京又要求乌方承认领土现状，这停火协议能不能落地，还得打个问号。要是 谈崩了，油价随时可能反弹，毕竟美国还威胁要制裁俄罗斯的"影子船队"呢。 再看黄金：避险情绪退潮，但长期支撑仍在 黄金跌了0.5%，白银、铂金也跟着走低，表面看是俄乌局势缓和，但更深层的博弈在美联储。鲍威尔周五要在杰克逊霍尔讲话，市场押注9月降息25个基 点的概率超过83%。不过特朗普新搞的407类钢铁铝关税，可能把通胀重新点燃——钢铁涨价会传导到下游产品，到时候黄金的避险属性反而会 ...

乌kursiv网7月25日报道，亚洲开发银行（ADB）发布的《2025年亚洲发展 展望（7月版）》显示，得益于中亚和高加索地区石油产量预期增长和国内需 求稳定，亚行将该地区2025年和2026年经济增速预期分别上调至5.5%和 5.1%，通胀预期分别上调至7.8%和6.7%。 （原标题：亚行上调2025和2026年中亚和高加索地区经济增速预期） 同时，将亚太地区2025年和2026年经济增长预期分别下调至4.7%和 4.6%。亚行称，此次下调主要受全球贸易不确定性、出口减少以及国内需求疲 软的影响。此外，该地区还面临局部武装冲突，供应链中断等其他风险。 ...

上周（8.11~8.15）黄金市场再次于3400美元区域遇阻回落，因7月PPI数据显著超出预期。特朗普与普京 的会晤提升了俄乌冲突走向终结的可能性。国内投资者在权益市场向好背景下继续兑现黄金收益。 市场观点方面，过往一周随着美国官宣不会对黄金加征关税后，伦敦金和纽约金价差迅速收敛，并导致 全球金价走弱，市场回归到基本面数据交易。美国7月CPI同比2.7%持平前值，预期2.8%，环比0.2%符 合预期，核心CPI同比从2.9%反弹至3.1%，预期3%，环比0.3%符合预期，核心通胀受到服务成本上涨 的支撑，玩具等进口商品已经开始体现关税带来的价格上涨压力。上周四公布的PPI数据给火热的降息 预期浇了一盆冷水，7月PPI同比从2.4%反弹至3.3%，环比从0增加至0.9%，显著超预期，服务成本快速 上涨推动PPI走高，同时能源价格也出现反弹，关税落地后，美国通胀存在继续上行的空间，8月密歇根 大学一年期和五至十年期通胀预期再度反弹至4.9%和3.9%，货币政策进入进退维谷局面。 不过周内财长贝森特表示9月可以开始大幅降息且总降息幅度应在150BP以上。注意到美国财政部长通 常不愿就美联储利率做出具体决定，贝森特几 ...

花旗最新通胀周报显示，关税对消费价格的冲击并非没有发生，而是以一种比市场预期更缓慢、更持久的形式出现。 尽管自春季以来美国实施了多轮关税上调，但在过去4-5个月的通胀数据中，其对消费品价格的直接推动作用远比预期要小。7月份的通胀数据虽 然有所走强（核心CPI月度增长0.3%，符合预期），但其主要驱动力来自服务业，而非商品。花旗预计7月核心PCE环比增长为0.27%，年率将升 至2.9%。 报告明确指出，那种市场担心的"最坏情况"——即因预期成本上升而导致商品价格出现迅速、大规模、普遍性上涨的局面——已经得以避免。 其核心原因在于疲软的终端需求。在需求不振的背景下，企业被迫在更长的时间内自行吸收关税成本，以避免因大幅提价而失去客户。这种策略 虽然暂时压制了CPI数据，但代价是企业利润受到挤压，并可能反过来进一步拖累未来的总需求。因此，关税的影响并非消失，而是被拉长了战 线。 未来数月是关键窗口期：关注服装、汽车和电子产品 花旗强调，8月至10月的通胀数据将是对关税传导动态的"最大考验"。该行框架表明，这一时期商品价格上涨的风险显著增加，主要基于以下几 点： 据追风交易台消息，花旗在最新研报中表示，最坏的"通胀闪 ...

Core Points - The Central Bank of Mauritania (BCM) has significantly reduced its inflation forecast, noting a decline in domestic inflation from 3.0% in July 2024 to 1.3% in July 2025, indicating a clear downward trend in inflation [1] - The BCM's monetary policy committee decided to maintain the main interest rates, with the benchmark rate at 6%, the lending facility rate at 6.5%, and the deposit facility rate at 2% [2] - This decision aims to consolidate economic stability, further support price stability, and allow room for future monetary policy adjustments [2]