Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller supports the FOMC's potential interest rate cut in December for "risk management" purposes, highlighting a weak labor market and stagnant economic conditions [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. labor market remains weak, approaching stagnation [1] - Excluding tariff impacts, core inflation is close to the 2% target [1] - Mid-term and long-term inflation expectations are anchored [1] Group 2: GDP and Housing Market - After excluding the effects of the government shutdown, GDP may slow down in the second half of 2025 [1] - Many households are struggling to afford homes and cars [1] Group 3: Employment Trends - The demand for workers is decreasing at a faster rate than the decline in supply [1] - Many companies are laying off employees or allowing headcount to decrease [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, after the U.S. government ended its shutdown, market sentiment varied, and asset trends diverged. The controversy over AI bubble resurfaced, and the high - level decline of safe - haven assets such as gold and Bitcoin raised market concerns, resulting in a decline in investors' risk appetite and a slight increase in the VIX volatility index. Global major stock markets showed mixed performance, with A - shares leading the decline after reaching a high, while the Hang Seng Index had a relatively large increase. The BDI index rose, U.S. bond yields increased, the U.S. dollar index slightly declined, and most non - U.S. currencies strengthened. Most commodities rose [4][8]. - In the domestic market, the bond market mostly closed down with short - term weakness and long - term strength, and most stock indices declined. The commodity sectors showed mixed performance but generally closed up, with the Wind Commodity Index having a weekly change of 3.92%. Among the 10 commodity sub - sector indices, 6 closed up and 4 closed down. Commodity futures generally maintained the pattern of strong agricultural products and weak industrial products [4][13]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 - 3.75% in December decreased to 39.8%, significantly lower than last week's 61.9%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% increased significantly [5][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Global asset trends: Global major stock markets showed mixed performance, A - shares led the decline after reaching a high, the Hang Seng Index rose, the BDI index increased, U.S. bond yields went up, the U.S. dollar index slightly declined, and most non - U.S. currencies strengthened. Most commodities rose, with precious metals stabilizing, rebounding, and then fluctuating at a high level, and copper and oil prices slightly rebounding [4][8]. - Domestic market performance: The domestic bond market mostly closed down with short - term weakness and long - term strength, and most stock indices declined. The commodity sectors showed mixed performance but generally closed up. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 3.92%. Commodity futures maintained the pattern of strong agricultural products and weak industrial products, with precious metals leading the rise, followed by significant increases in the agricultural products, grains, and oilseeds sectors. The non - ferrous and chemical sectors slightly closed up, while other sectors all closed down, with the coal, coking, steel, and mining and energy sectors having the largest declines [4][13]. - Futures market capital flow: The overall capital in the commodity futures market slightly flowed in. The precious metals, non - metallic building materials, oilseeds, and non - ferrous sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the soft commodities, coal, coking, steel, and mining, and chemical sectors had obvious capital outflows [4][15]. - Commodity volatility: The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index significantly increased, while the volatility of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index showed a divergent performance of one rising and one falling. Most of the commodity futures sub - sector volatilities declined, with the oilseeds, non - ferrous, soft commodities, and coal, coking, steel, and mining sectors having the largest decline in volatility, and the energy sector having the most obvious increase in volatility [5][22]. Variety Performance - The domestic major commodity futures showed mixed performance in the recent week. The top - rising commodity futures varieties were Shanghai silver, lithium carbonate, and apples, while the top - falling varieties were glass, coke, and red dates [18][21]. Data Tracking - International commodities: International major commodities generally closed up, the BDI slightly increased, the CRB was flat, soybeans and corn rose, and copper, oil, gold, and silver all closed up, with the silver price rising more and the gold - silver ratio significantly declining [26]. - Domestic data: Asphalt production rate continued to decline, real - estate sales were weakly bottom - seeking, freight rates rebounded with differentiation, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated downward [41]. Macro Logic - Stock market: The domestic four major stock indices fluctuated and declined last week. In terms of style, value stocks were obviously more resistant to decline, while growth - style stock indices were relatively weaker. The valuation of stock indices declined, and the equity risk premium (ERP) changed little [30][31]. - Commodities: The commodity price index fluctuated and rebounded, and the inflation expectation was under downward pressure [34]. - U.S. bonds: U.S. bond yields rebounded, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread changed little, the real interest rate rebounded, and the gold price rebounded and then declined [49]. - U.S. economic indicators: The U.S. high - frequency "recession indicator" weakened, the Citi Economic Surprise Index showed differentiation, and the 10Y - 3M U.S. bond spread fluctuated in positive territory [60]. Fed Interest Rate Expectation The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 - 3.75% in December decreased to 39.8%, significantly lower than last week's 61.9%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% increased significantly [5][68]. This Week's Focus - Monday (November 17): Canada's October CPI monthly rate, U.S. November New York Fed Manufacturing Index [73]. - Tuesday (November 18): U.S. October Import Price Index monthly rate, U.S. October Industrial Production monthly rate, U.S. November NAHB Housing Market Index, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari hosts a fireside chat, Reserve Bank of Australia releases November Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed visits the White House and meets with U.S. President Trump [73]. - Wednesday (November 19): U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 14, UK October CPI monthly rate, Eurozone October CPI annual rate final value, U.S. October New Housing Starts annualized, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending November 14, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending November 14 [73]. - Thursday (November 20): China's October Swift RMB share in global payments, China's one - year loan prime rate as of November 20, Germany's October PPI monthly rate, Switzerland's October trade balance, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15, U.S. November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Eurozone November Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value, U.S. October Existing Home Sales annualized, U.S. October Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate, U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending November 14, Fed releases Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, New York Fed President Williams gives a speech, September non - farm payroll data [73]. - Friday (November 21): Japan's October core CPI annual rate, UK November Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, UK November Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Canada's September retail sales monthly rate, U.S. November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, U.S. November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value, U.S. November one - year inflation rate expectation final value, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee gives a speech, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker gives a speech on the economic outlook, European Central Bank President Lagarde gives a speech, New York Fed President Williams gives a speech [73].

周一，One River Asset Management分析师Eric Peters在最新专栏中引述对冲基金经理的观点指出，投资者正在押注2026年的政治周期将主导市场节奏。 这些资深交易员预期一季度将出现强劲反弹，但5月新任美联储主席上任后市场将面临考验，而特朗普为赢得中期选举将采取所有可能手段。 据Peters文章，多策略对冲基金经理Alpha表示，市场将上调全球增长预期，美国名义GDP增速可能升至5%甚至更高。财政刺激将提振需求，提前报税者将获 得大额退税，对消费形成显著推动。 华尔街策略师：2025年底无需冲刺 某大型华尔街机构全球首席策略师Biggie Too表示，2025年初市场最大的担忧是10年期美债收益率触及6%，而收益率回落至4%为今年市场提供了重要支撑。 Biggie表示，尽管有人认为2027年将是灾难性的一年，但投资者需要关注的是2026年的赚钱机会。当前没有人需要年底冲刺，今年已经表现出色，交易员正在 清理账簿为明年布局。 政治周期主导交易逻辑 这种需求驱动的增长将迫使美联储重新考虑利率政策。当总需求超过总供给时，无论谁领导美联储都将被迫加息而非降息。短期国债面临40-50个基点的抛 ...

Group 1 - Investors are betting that the political cycle in 2026 will dominate market trends, with expectations of a strong rebound in Q1, followed by challenges after the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office in May [1] - The consensus among multi-strategy hedge fund managers is that global growth expectations will be raised, with the U.S. nominal GDP growth potentially reaching 5% or higher due to fiscal stimulus boosting demand [1] - Demand-driven growth is expected to force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its interest rate policy, leading to a potential sell-off pressure of 40-50 basis points on short-term bonds [1] Group 2 - The demand for AI is experiencing an immediate surge, while supply-side improvements from AI investments are projected to take years, typically around 10 years [2] - The overall supply capacity of the economy has actually declined in the short term due to labor market and immigration policy constraints [2] - Inflation expectations are no longer stable, and if inflation rises again early next year, it may exhibit self-reinforcing and expectation-driven characteristics [2] Group 3 - Concerns about the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 6% by early 2025 are prevalent, but a drop back to 4% has provided significant support for the market this year [3] - Investors are advised to focus on profit opportunities in 2026 rather than worrying about a potential disaster in 2027, as this year has already shown strong performance [3] Group 4 - The market consensus indicates a clear trading path: a prosperous Q1 followed by a test when the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office on May 15 [4] - The midterm elections on November 3 are seen as a critical juncture, with Trump likely to employ all possible means to secure a win, shaping investor positioning [4] - There is a notable shift in risk assessment, with risk assets expected to perform well for a period, but adjustments in interest rate expectations may occur as consumer conditions improve [4]

Group 1: Banking Sector Insights - As of the end of Q3 2025, the non-performing loan (NPL) balance of commercial banks reached 3.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 88.3 billion yuan from the previous quarter, with an NPL ratio of 1.52%, up by 0.03 percentage points [1] - The total normal loan balance for commercial banks was 228.8 trillion yuan, consisting of 223.7 trillion yuan in normal loans and 5.1 trillion yuan in attention loans [1] Group 2: Financial Industry Competition - The Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Tao Ling, emphasized the need to curb "involutionary competition" in the financial industry to maintain reasonable profit margins and resource allocation efficiency [2] - The call for a sustainable financial ecosystem highlights the importance of clear property rights, fair competition rules, effective contract enforcement, moderate financing costs, and strong rights protection [2] Group 3: Financial Market Innovations - The establishment of the first shareholding bank financial asset investment company, Xinyin Financial Asset Investment Co., with a registered capital of 10 billion yuan, aims to support the optimization of capital structures and reduction of leverage for technology and private enterprises through market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps [3] - This initiative represents a significant step in financial market innovation, indicating that financial institutions are expanding financing channels to support economic transformation [3] Group 4: Gold Market Trends - Spot gold prices fell below 4,100 USD per ounce, with a daily decline of 1.72%, indicating a decrease in market demand for safe-haven assets, possibly reflecting increased confidence in economic recovery [4] - The fluctuations in gold prices are closely linked to inflation expectations, monetary policy, and geopolitical factors, suggesting that macroeconomic changes should be monitored [4] Group 5: U.S. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about rising inflation levels, indicating that they do not support a rate cut in December unless there is clear evidence of a faster decline in inflation [5] - The absence of key economic data due to the government shutdown poses challenges for the Federal Reserve in making informed policy decisions, highlighting a focus on price stability and inflation expectations [5]

Core Insights - The inflation differences between China and Japan reflect the distinct stages of economic development and national conditions, making it difficult to determine absolute superiority [1] - Japan's long-term price stability is influenced by factors such as aging population and sluggish economic growth, while China's moderate inflation indicates economic vitality and potential [1] Inflation Rates - Over the past decade, China's average inflation rate was approximately 2.3%, while Japan's was only 0.8%, leading to a 25% increase in Chinese prices compared to an 8% increase in Japan [2] - Over a 30-year period, Japan's price levels have remained nearly unchanged since the early 1990s, with instances of deflation [2] Demographic Factors - Japan has the highest aging population globally, with over 29% aged 65 and above, resulting in low consumption demand and high savings rates [2] - In contrast, China's labor force aged 16-59 constitutes 61.2% of the total population, driving strong consumption demand [2] Economic Growth - Rapid economic growth typically correlates with higher inflation due to increased investment, employment, and consumer demand [3] - Japan has experienced low growth rates averaging around 0.7% from 2014 to 2024, leading to weak overall demand and limited inflationary pressure [3] - China has maintained high growth rates, with a projected GDP growth of approximately 5% in 2024, contributing to inflationary pressures [3] Monetary Policy - Japan's central bank has implemented ultra-loose monetary policies, including zero and negative interest rates, but these have not effectively stimulated inflation due to demographic and growth factors [4] - Japan's M2 money supply grew by only about 35% from 2014 to 2024, indicating low monetary expansion [4] - Conversely, China's M2 money supply increased by approximately 115% during the same period, suggesting greater inflationary pressure [5] Industrial Structure - Japan's highly industrialized and efficient economy allows for productivity gains that can offset cost increases, with manufacturing productivity rising by about 2.1% annually from 2020 to 2025 [5] - China's industrialization is still in progress, leading to more noticeable price increases [5] Housing Market - China's housing market has seen significant price increases over the past two decades, affecting overall consumer prices through direct and indirect channels [6] - Japan's real estate market has remained subdued since the bubble burst, contributing to stable price levels [6] Consumer Behavior - Japanese consumers are highly price-sensitive, which limits companies' ability to raise prices easily [8] - In contrast, Chinese consumers have developed higher inflation expectations, leading to anticipatory consumption that can drive prices up [10] Globalization and Government Regulation - Japan benefits from a global economic structure that allows for low-cost imports and high-value exports, influencing its inflation dynamics [10] - China faces greater pressure from international market fluctuations, impacting its inflation levels [10] - Both countries have different approaches to price monitoring and regulation, with Japan having a more established system [10] Social Welfare Systems - Japan's comprehensive social welfare system helps stabilize prices, while China's system is still developing, leading to higher price pressures in healthcare and education [11]

Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 12356, with a recent high of 12580 and a low of 12307, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The weakening US dollar and geopolitical tensions are increasing the attractiveness of silver, although hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials are limiting the upside potential for silver prices [1] - Federal Reserve officials are cautious about predicting a rate cut in December, with various officials expressing that the current interest rates are close to neutral and that there is limited room for easing [1] Group 2 - The end of the longest government shutdown in US history is expected to lead to continued expansionary fiscal policies, with potential tax rebates for low-income families, which may raise inflation expectations [2] - Recent trading analysis suggests that silver futures may see a short-term bullish opportunity, with a target around 12450 and a possibility of breaking the previous high of 12550 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, causing the prices of gold and silver to decline. The gold price is expected to fluctuate, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The premiums of Shanghai gold and silver have changed, and the market is waiting for data verification [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation, which supported the precious metal prices. However, factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US tariff concerns have improved, weakening the support for precious metal prices [10][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a triple - kill in the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, causing the gold price to decline. The US three major stock indexes and European three major stock indexes all closed down. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 5.18 basis points to 4.121%, the US dollar index fell 0.30% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.0974. The COMEX gold futures fell 0.93% to $4174.5 per ounce. The basis was - 3.05, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 810 kilograms to 90426 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price reached a record high and then declined significantly. The COMEX silver futures fell 2.30% to $52.23 per ounce. The basis was - 20, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 954 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net long position increased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Today's Focus**: Attention should be paid to China's series of economic data, intensive speeches by ECB and Fed officials, and the revised value of the euro - zone's Q3 GDP. The hawkish remarks from Fed officials led to a decline in the precious metal prices, and the market is waiting for data verification [4][6]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The factors affecting the gold price include the shift from inflation expectation to economic recession expectation after Trump took office, but the support from factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed rate cuts, and Sino - US tariff concerns has weakened [4][10]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The silver price mainly follows the gold price, and factors such as tariff concerns have a greater impact on the silver price [6][14]. 4. Position Data - **Gold**: On November 13, 2025, the long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 0.66% to 169,485, the short - position volume decreased by 3.86% to 67,373, and the net long position increased by 3.89% to 102,112 [32]. - **Silver**: On November 13, 2025, the long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 2.72% to 398,314, the short - position volume increased by 11.04% to 294,341, and the net long position decreased by 15.26% to 103,973 [33]. 5. Today's Concerns - 08:05: Speech by ECB Governing Council member Vujčić - 09:30: Release of the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities by the National Bureau of Statistics - 10:00: Release of China's industrial added value above designated size, total retail sales of consumer goods, urban fixed - asset investment, and national real - estate development investment from January to October, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate in October. A press conference on the national economic operation will be held by the State Council Information Office - 15:05: Speeches by ECB Governing Council members Escriva and Vujčić at the Singapore Fintech Festival - 18:00: Release of the revised value of the euro - zone's Q3 GDP - 18:30: Speech by ECB Executive Board member Elderson in Frankfurt - 21:30 (possibly): Release of US retail sales in October - 22:20: Speech by Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter in 2027) - 23:00: Speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane - 23:05: Speech by Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid - Next day 03:30: Participation in a fireside chat by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan - Next day 04:20: Participation in a dialogue by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic [16]

转自：期货日报 近期，黄金与白银价格在短暂调整后重拾强势，特别是周四白银表现亮眼：沪银价格创下上市新高，外 盘银价也一度逼近前期高点。记者了解到，这是宏观经济预期与品种自身基本面因素共振的结果。 据金瑞期货研究所贵金属研究员吴梓杰介绍，贵金属强势上行最核心的驱动力，源于市场对美联储货币 政策即将转向的强烈预期。近期披露的一些非官方经济数据，例如降温的劳动力市场和持续疲软的消费 者信心指数，被市场普遍解读为美国经济活力放缓的明确信号，这极大地强化了投资者对美联储将在不 久后降息以应对潜在衰退风险的判断。 吴梓杰表示，在此背景下，美国政府"停摆"的终结成为了一个关键的催化剂，其利好效应体现在多个层 面：首先，政府恢复正常运作后，积压的官方经济数据（尤其是就业数据）将得以发布，市场普遍预期 这些数据会进一步证实经济走弱的趋势，从而为美联储在12月降息提供更坚实的数据支持；其次，政府 重新"开门"意味着财政支出有望重回扩张轨道，并且可能伴随着财政部一般账户（TGA）流动性的重新 释放，这将共同为市场注入更多流动性；最后，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克即将退休的消息，也被市场 解读为美联储内部可能进一步"转鸽"的信号，进一步 ...

早上好！先来看隔夜市场概况。 11月13日纽约尾盘，现货黄金跌0.54%，报4172.84美元/盎司，北京时间11月13日20:59刷新日高至 4245.23美元/盎司，北京时间11月14日02:23出现一波短线跳水——从4200美元/盎司关口跌至4145.55美 元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货跌0.96%，报4173.00美元/盎司。 截至今晨收盘，美股三大股指普跌，道指跌1.65%，纳指跌2.29%，标普跌1.65%。英伟达跌超3%，谷 歌跌超2%，特斯拉跌超6%，甲骨文跌超4%。热门中概股收盘普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌1.59%。 消息面上， 据新华社报道，国际货币基金组织（IMF）发言人朱莉·科扎克13日表示，美国联邦政府"停 摆"将对经济产生负面影响，预计今年四季度美国经济增速将低于此前预测的1.9%。 美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，由于政府"停摆"，一个月内将仅公布就业数据，不公布失业率数据。他 预计美国第四季度国内生产总值（GDP）增速将因政府"停摆"而下降1.5个百分点。哈塞特还表示，看 不出有什么理由不降息。 美国短期利率衍生品合约显示，市场预期美联储在12月降息25个基点的可能性不足50%。 ...