Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points indicates a shift in focus from combating persistent inflation to addressing economic growth and employment pressures [1] - The weakening of the US dollar is expected to facilitate global capital rebalancing, leading to increased foreign investment in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1][2] - Manulife Investment's analysis suggests that the Fed's current stance is dovish, and future rate cuts may depend on upcoming US economic data [1] Group 2 - The expectation of further monetary easing by the Fed is anticipated to narrow the earnings gap between the "Seven Giants" and other S&P companies, with a positive outlook for small-cap stocks [2] - Manulife Investment emphasizes the need to monitor the economic fundamentals following the Fed's rate cut, as it may lead to a rebound in global economic conditions [2] - The potential for a steepening of US Treasury yields exists if dovish rate cuts continue, while uncertainties regarding tariffs may impact earnings, particularly in the technology sector [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Report's Core View This report is an overseas economic tracking weekly report that analyzes the trends of the US and global financial markets, central bank policies, Trump's policies, and economic fundamentals from September 15 - 19, 2025, and provides a preview of important events in the coming week [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overseas Market One - Week Review - **Equity**: US stocks reached new highs, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq rising 1.22%, 1.05%, and 2.21% respectively. European and Asian stock markets showed mixed trends [1][12]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar rose slightly, with the dollar index up 0.03%. The euro and yen had different performances against the dollar, and the RMB rose slightly against the dollar [12]. - **Interest Rates**: US Treasury yields and term spreads increased. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasuries rose 1bp and 8bp respectively [13]. - **Commodities**: Gold and crude oil rose after fluctuations. COMEX gold and silver rose 1.09% and 1.40% respectively, and WTI crude oil rose 0.19% [13]. 2. Overseas Policy and Important News 2.1 Overseas Central Bank Dynamics - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The statement emphasized employment risks, and the dot - plot showed more expected rate cuts in 2025 and subsequent years [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell's stance was moderately dovish but cautious. Other Fed officials were neutrally dovish [2][30]. - The market's expectation of a 75bp rate cut in 2025 increased, but the expectation of rate cuts in 2026 was postponed [3]. 2.2 Trump Policy Tracking - **Sino - US Relations**: High - level talks reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as TikTok and trade cooperation. The TikTok ban was extended to December 16, and a Sino - US presidential call was held [4]. - **Fiscal**: There is a risk of a partial government shutdown. The House passed a temporary appropriation bill, but the Senate rejected one [4]. - **Other Aspects**: The US Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on Trump's tariff case, the UK and the US signed a technology agreement, and Trump reformed the H - 1B visa program [6]. 3. Overseas Economic Fundamental High - Frequency Tracking - **Overall Prosperity**: The Nowcast and GDPNow models raised the Q3 US GDP growth forecasts to 2.10% and 3.34% respectively [7]. - **Employment**: Unemployment insurance claims decreased unexpectedly. Initial and continued claims both declined [7]. - **Demand**: Retail sales and airport security checks were stable, but railway transportation decreased significantly. The real estate market recovered [7]. - **Production**: US crude steel production and refinery operations remained stable, above last year's levels [7]. - **Shipping**: International freight rates were mixed. Some Chinese export container rates decreased, while some US - bound routes increased [7]. - **Prices**: US retail gasoline prices rose, and the 1 - year inflation swap decreased slightly [7]. - **Financial Conditions**: The OFR US financial stress index declined [7]. 4. Next Week's Overseas Important Event Reminders Next week (September 22 - 26, 2025), focus on the US Q2 real GDP final value, the US August core PCE inflation rate, the S&P PMI of the US and the eurozone, and密集 Fed officials' speeches [7][73].

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is a "risk management" measure that aims to provide strong support for economic growth, with clearer future rate cut paths anticipated [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, leading to fluctuations in global asset prices, with gold and US stocks recovering after initial adjustments [1] - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations have shown new progress, signaling positive developments in US-China relations [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The market's trading direction is expected to become clearer, with a focus on the narrative surrounding the AI industry overseas [1] - In the domestic market, stable export conditions are anticipated to create a resonance between internal and external demand, supported by the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The pricing of Chinese assets is centered around the theme of "emerging from deflation," with the potential incremental benefits from the "14th Five-Year Plan" also warranting attention [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.00% to 4.25%, which is seen as a significant move impacting global capital flows [1][3] - The reduction in interest rates is expected to lead to increased foreign investment in Chinese, Japanese, and European markets, particularly benefiting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to their low valuations [3][5] - The Fed's decision is framed as a "risk management" approach, indicating a shift in focus from combating inflation to stabilizing growth and employment, reflecting a complex internal struggle [5][7] Group 2 - Market reactions to the rate cut have been mixed, with U.S. markets showing little movement and A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experiencing declines, suggesting that the positive expectations were already priced in [5][9] - There are divergent views on future rate cuts, with some institutions predicting additional cuts in November and December, while others caution against premature optimism due to potential inflation rebounds [9][10] - The investment landscape is expected to see structural differentiation, requiring more refined investment strategies rather than broad-based buying [10][12] Group 3 - Sectors such as technology, AI, and innovative pharmaceuticals are highlighted as areas of potential growth, particularly in the context of lower interest rates benefiting high-quality growth stocks [11][12] - Conversely, export-oriented companies may face challenges due to a weaker dollar and stronger renminbi, impacting their profitability [14][16] - The need for risk management tools is emphasized, with suggestions to consider gold ETFs and options to navigate market volatility [18]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate, reducing the range from 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%, which is expected to have widespread implications for the financial markets [2][3] - The term "risk management rate cut" was introduced, indicating that while the U.S. economy is still functioning, there are warning signs that necessitate preemptive measures to avoid larger issues [3][5] - The employment data for August showed only 22,000 new jobs added, significantly below the normal range of 150,000 to 200,000, indicating companies are tightening their hiring practices [5][9] Group 2 - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% to 4.3%, marking the highest level in nearly four years, which suggests a tougher job market for Americans [5][21] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is influenced by political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, who has been vocal about the need for more aggressive rate cuts [7][9] - The Fed also indicated potential future rate cuts, with predictions of two additional 25 basis point cuts by 2025, suggesting a prolonged period of loose monetary policy [9][25] Group 3 - The stock market typically reacts positively to preventive rate cuts, as lower borrowing costs can facilitate business expansion and attract investors seeking higher returns [11][13] - There has been a significant influx of foreign capital into the Chinese market, with foreign holdings of A-shares reaching 2.57 trillion yuan, indicating renewed international interest in China's economic prospects [14][20] - The bond market is expected to benefit from the rate cut cycle, as existing bonds with higher yields become more valuable compared to new issues [16][21] Group 4 - The Fed's rate cut is seen as a turning point for the global financial landscape, prompting a reassessment of asset values and capital flows [25] - China's economic environment is expected to improve as external pressures from previous aggressive Fed rate hikes diminish, allowing for a more favorable investment climate [18][23] - The long-term outlook for China's economy remains stable due to its large domestic market, complete industrial chain, and advancing technological capabilities, which are attractive to long-term capital [23][25]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced significant fluctuations, with gold prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, indicating a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, which was already anticipated by the market, leading to a sell-off in gold as traders took profits [1][2]. - Prior to the rate cut, gold prices surged from $3,350 to $3,744 per ounce, reflecting excessive market trading on the expectation of multiple rate cuts [2]. - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious statements post-meeting indicated that the rate cut was a risk management measure rather than the start of a sustained easing cycle, contributing to the decline in gold prices [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The U.S. non-farm payrolls data showed a significant drop in job growth, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below expectations, which influenced the Fed's decision to cut rates [4]. - Despite the weak employment data, inflation remains resilient, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.9% year-on-year, suggesting that the economic context differs from previous years [4]. - Analysts predict that the Fed may implement two more rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points, which could support gold prices [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment has shifted, with some analysts warning of potential short-term profit-taking in the stock market following the Fed's rate cut, which could lead to increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [6]. - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, have heightened investor demand for gold, although the primary driver for gold's price movement remains monetary policy expectations [7]. - Long-term, concerns about U.S. dollar credibility and the expansion of U.S. debt could provide upward momentum for gold prices, despite short-term fluctuations [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed has initiated a new round of interest - rate cuts, and precious metal prices will continue to strengthen. "Preventive interest - rate cuts" ease the overseas recession expectation, driving the gold - silver ratio down, and silver will outperform gold in this interest - rate cut cycle [1][11]. - The dovish monetary policy stance of new Fed governor Milan on Friday drove silver prices to recover previous losses. The market should pay attention to the possibility of Milan becoming the new Fed chair. The current strategy for precious metals is to buy on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold at 823 - 850 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai silver at 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Weekly Review**: Gold and silver prices were strong this week. Shanghai gold rose 0.93% to 838.26 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 2.34% to 10204.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold rose 1.05% to 3719.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 1.60% to 43.37 dollars/ounce. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.14%, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.03% to 97.65 [11]. - **Fed's Interest - Rate Cut**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but the monetary policy stance was less dovish than expected. The "risk - management - style" interest - rate cut eased the market's expectation of an overseas economic recession, which is positive for silver with more obvious industrial attributes. The fact that "Trump - faction" governors did not vote against and Powell's statement of "acting with a high degree of unity today" dampened the market's dovish expectations [11]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The "preventive interest - rate cut" will drive the gold - silver ratio down, and silver will perform better than gold as the overseas recession expectation eases and global manufacturing PMI recovers [11]. - **Milan's Statement**: Milan, a new Fed governor, made a very dovish statement on Friday, driving silver prices to recover previous losses. His statement had a significant impact on the market's expectation of the Fed's monetary policy [11]. - **Market Outlook**: After Milan's statement, silver prices were strong. The current strategy for precious metals is to buy on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold at 823 - 850 yuan/gram and that for Shanghai silver at 9799 - 10800 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3.2 Market Review - **Prices**: Gold and silver prices were strong. Shanghai gold rose 0.93%, Shanghai silver rose 2.34%, COMEX gold rose 1.05%, and COMEX silver rose 1.60% [11][29]. - **Positions**: Domestic and foreign gold and silver positions increased. Shanghai gold's total positions rose 1.33% to 44.89 million lots, COMEX gold's total positions rose 1.29% to 51.62 million lots as of the latest report period. Shanghai silver's total positions rose to 911,000 lots on Friday night, and COMEX silver's total positions rose 3.99% to 163,000 lots as of the latest report period [32][35]. - **Managed Fund Net Positions**: As of the September 16 report period, COMEX gold and silver managed fund net positions declined. COMEX gold's managed fund net position decreased by 4548 lots to 158,900 lots, and COMEX silver's managed fund net position decreased slightly by 49 lots to 35,800 lots [37]. - **ETF Positions**: As of September 19, the total position of gold ETFs was 2229.7 tons, and the total position of foreign silver ETFs was 27,681.17 tons [40]. 3.3 Interest Rates and Liquidity - **U.S. Treasury Yields**: The report shows the trends of U.S. long - and short - term Treasury yields and the spreads between different - term Treasury bonds [51][52]. - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: The report presents the trends of the U.S. federal funds rate, overnight reverse - repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectation [54][55]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: This week, the U.S. Treasury's TGA account balance increased by 13.9557 billion dollars to 80.7142 billion dollars, and the deposit reserve balance decreased by 13.055 billion dollars to 3.02 trillion dollars [57][61]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **CPI & PCE**: In August, the U.S. CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.70%. The seasonally - adjusted CPI was 0.4% month - on - month, higher than the expected 0.30% and the previous value of 0.20%. The un - seasonally - adjusted core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, and the seasonally - adjusted core CPI was 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations and the previous value [66]. - **Employment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 13 was 231,000, lower than the expected 240,000 and the previous value of 264,000 [69]. - **PMI & PPI**: In August, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52, higher than the expected and previous value of 50.1 [72]. - **New Home Data**: In July, the annualized total number of new home starts in the U.S. was 1.428 million, significantly higher than the expected 1.29 million and the previous value of 1.358 million. The annualized total number of building permits was 1.354 million, lower than the expected 1.386 million and the previous value of 1.393 million [75]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The report shows the trends of the gold TD - SHFE basis [78][79]. - **Silver Basis**: The report shows the trends of the silver TD - SHFE basis [81][82]. - **Gold and Silver Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: The report shows the trends of the domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver [84][85]. 3.6 Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventory**: The report shows the trends of silver inventories in different exchanges [91][92]. - **Gold Inventory**: The report shows the trends of gold inventories in COMEX and LBMA [95].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is under significant pressure, facing high national debt, elevated unemployment rates, and rising prices, leading to speculation about an impending interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since January of this year [1] Federal Reserve Actions - During the meeting, all 11 voting members supported the rate cut, with only the newly appointed member advocating for a 50 basis point reduction [3] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management" measure aimed at addressing downward pressure on the U.S. job market, as August's non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [3] Market Reactions - The rate cut signals a preemptive response to the U.S. economic downturn, with implications for global asset prices, capital flows, and monetary policy rhythms in other countries, particularly affecting the Chinese A-share market [5] - The consensus within the Federal Reserve indicates a stronger agreement on further rate cuts, with the number of members supporting three cuts this year increasing from 2 to 9 since June 2024 [6] Capital Flows and A-share Market - The A-share market is expected to benefit from the rebalancing of global capital, with passive fund inflows from Northbound capital reaching $3.684 billion in August, a significant increase from $313 million in July [8] - Although active funds are still experiencing outflows, the scale of these outflows has narrowed considerably, indicating a growing attractiveness of RMB assets [8] Policy Measures in China - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has introduced a series of measures in collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Financial Regulatory Bureau, including rate cuts and adjustments to mortgage policies, signaling a commitment to stabilize market expectations [9] - The PBOC's recent actions provide more flexibility in monetary policy, especially following the Fed's rate cut, which could further support the A-share market [9] Export and Manufacturing Outlook - China's exports grew by 12.3% in March, although this rate fell to 4.4% in August, maintaining a medium-speed growth trend, which is crucial for stabilizing growth [11] - The global trend of interest rate cuts is expected to improve the external demand environment, supporting the profitability outlook for Chinese manufacturing in the coming months [11] Sector-Specific Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is benefiting from a weaker dollar and heightened risk aversion, with prices for gold and copper continuing to rise [13] - The brokerage sector is seeing improved profitability due to increased market trading activity, while sectors like computing hardware, robotics, and solid-state batteries are performing well under the dual drivers of policy support and liquidity [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% was anticipated, but the market reaction was unexpected, with the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rising sharply after a brief dip, while gold experienced significant selling pressure [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators and Fed's Actions - Fed Chairman Powell labeled the rate cut as a "risk management" move, indicating that the motivation was not due to an existing recession but rather to hedge against future uncertainties [3][5]. - Despite the rate cut, Powell acknowledged rising risks in the labor market, with both labor supply and hiring demand declining sharply, creating a "peculiar balance" [5]. - Inflation and unemployment rates, which typically move in opposite directions, have both shown upward trends recently, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5][8]. Group 2: Fed's Forecasts and Political Pressures - On the same day as the rate cut, the Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for the next three years while lowering unemployment rate predictions for the next two years, highlighting internal contradictions in its outlook [7][8]. - Political pressure from the White House is increasingly influencing Fed decisions, as evidenced by the dissenting vote from newly appointed board member Milan, who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [10][12]. - The market's trust in the Fed's independence is eroding, with concerns that the Fed's future policy may lean more towards government preferences due to ongoing political pressures [14][15]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Liquidity Concerns - The market has accepted predictions of one to two more rate cuts this year, but largely ignored the Fed's long-term projections, reflecting skepticism about the Fed's future policy direction [17]. - A more pressing concern is the tightening liquidity in the banking system, as indicated by the overnight financing rates in the repo market exceeding the Fed's policy rate ceiling, signaling potential financial instability [20][22]. - The ongoing reduction of the Fed's balance sheet is drawing liquidity from the market, which could lead to a situation where the Fed may need to reverse course and expand its balance sheet again, signaling a stronger easing than the rate cut itself [22][24].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced significant fluctuations recently, with gold prices reaching historical highs before a sharp decline following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On September 18, the COMEX gold futures contract peaked at $3744 per ounce, marking a historical high since its listing, but subsequently fell by $39.6 to close at $3678 per ounce [2]. - As of September 19, COMEX gold was reported at $3677 per ounce, indicating a notable drop after the initial surge [2]. - The market had already priced in the expectation of a rate cut before the Federal Reserve's announcement, leading to a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was perceived as a risk management move rather than the start of a sustained easing cycle, which contributed to profit-taking among gold bulls [2][3]. - Market expectations had previously anticipated two rate cuts by the end of the year, but the actual cut was less than expected, leading to a sharp decline in gold prices [3][4]. - The cautious tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, emphasizing the uncertainty of future rate cuts, did not provide a strong signal for further easing, causing market doubts about the rate cut trajectory [3][4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Expectations - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a significant drop, with only 22,000 jobs added in August, far below expectations, which raised concerns about the economy [5]. - Despite the weak employment data, inflation remains resilient, with the core PCE inflation rate still above the 2% target, indicating that the economy may not require aggressive rate cuts [5][6]. - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for October 28, with expectations of two more rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, which could support gold prices [6][7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors - Wall Street's outlook on gold has shifted, with some analysts warning of potential market corrections following the Fed's rate cut, as the market had already priced in the easing [7][8]. - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, have heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold [8][9]. - Long-term factors driving gold prices include concerns over U.S. dollar credibility and the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies, which may provide upward momentum for gold [9].