Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and the fourth cut since 2024 [1][2][12] - The decision was supported by 11 out of 12 voting members, indicating a consensus on the need for a rate cut, although there was some internal disagreement regarding the extent of the cut [2][3] - Fed Chairman Powell's statements were characterized as "hawkish," emphasizing the need for risk management and indicating that future rate adjustments would not be made hastily [1][4][6] Group 2 - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in the labor market, with a noted increase in risks to employment, while inflation remains elevated [3][5] - The Fed's economic forecasts showed a divergence among officials regarding future interest rates, with expectations for two more rate cuts this year, but some officials predicting no further cuts [3][4][12] - The labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, with recent data indicating a drop in non-farm payrolls and an increase in the unemployment rate [8][9] Group 3 - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. has shown a slight decline, primarily driven by a decrease in core services inflation, while core goods inflation has increased [7][8] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is seen as a response to the dual pressures of rising inflation and a weakening labor market, with a focus on managing risks associated with these trends [5][9] - The market anticipates further rate cuts in October and December, with expectations for a cautious approach from the Fed moving forward [14][16] Group 4 - The Fed's independence has been a concern amid political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, but Powell has maintained a rational and independent stance [13] - The future trajectory of the Fed's monetary policy will depend heavily on economic data, with a focus on balancing inflation risks against employment risks [14][16] - The outlook for gold prices remains strong in the medium to long term, supported by central bank purchases and a global trend towards de-dollarization, despite short-term pressures from rate cuts [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite the recent interest rate cut, the current monetary policy stance remains "moderately restrictive," suggesting potential for further rate cuts if labor market weakness continues to outweigh inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4%–4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025, described by Powell as a "risk management cut" to address warning signs in the labor market [1]. - Powell emphasized the dual risks of inflation and employment, stating that if rates are cut too quickly or too much, inflation could remain around 3% instead of approaching the Fed's 2% target [1][2]. - Recent data indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth, complicating the assessment of economic conditions, particularly with the impact of President Trump's immigration policies on labor supply [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Powell warned about the potential sustained inflation effects from tariff increases, noting that price levels could rise due to supply chain adjustments, with impacts spreading over several quarters [2][3]. - The recent price increases are primarily attributed to tariff hikes rather than broader price pressures, indicating a specific inflationary concern linked to trade policies [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation and Financial Stability - Powell acknowledged that stock market prices appear relatively high, suggesting that the Fed monitors the overall financial environment and its impact on policy effectiveness [5]. - Despite recognizing high stock valuations, Powell stated that it is not currently a time of rising financial stability risks [6].

Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is facing "stagflation-like" challenges with noticeable weakness in economic growth and the job market, while inflation remains high [1][2] - Recent data indicates a slowdown in economic growth, a slight increase in unemployment, and a cooling consumer spending environment, despite inflation levels exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][2] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve recently implemented its first interest rate cut since 2025, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, described as a "risk management" operation [1][2] - The latest dot plot suggests three potential rate cuts in 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of two, although there is significant internal division among Fed officials regarding the pace of rate cuts [1][2] Labor Market and Immigration - The labor supply and demand in the U.S. are weakening, exacerbated by tightened immigration policies under the Trump administration, leading to increased job market challenges [2] - There are growing divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the need for aggressive rate cuts to prevent falling behind economic conditions [2] Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.11%, while the stock market experienced declines, particularly in technology stocks [3][4] - Market expectations indicate a potential total rate cut of approximately 43 basis points by year-end, with some investors speculating on a possible 50 basis point cut in a future meeting [3][4] Financial Stability - Powell noted that while U.S. stock market valuations appear relatively high, there are currently no significant signs of increased financial stability risks [3] - Upcoming key economic data, including GDP and core PCE, may further influence market volatility and the Federal Reserve's policy direction [4]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations[9] - The dot plot indicates a median rate expectation of 3.5%-3.75% by year-end, suggesting a total of 50 basis points of potential rate cuts remaining this year[24] - There is significant divergence among committee members regarding future monetary policy, with some advocating for higher rates based on perceptions of a higher natural rate[2] Group 2: Labor Market Analysis - Non-farm payroll data shows a decline in labor force participation, which may suppress potential economic growth and push down the natural rate[3] - A notable increase in the percentage of workers finding it difficult to secure jobs was observed in August, indicating potential weakness in the employment market[3] - The labor market's stagnation could mask underlying employment pressures, as many discouraged workers exit the labor force[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims have shown a rapid increase since early August, although recent data indicates some relief[10] - Retail sales in the U.S. have been recovering since early 2024, with positive year-on-year growth maintained for three consecutive months post-May[10] - Japan's CPI and core CPI fell to 2.7% in August, indicating stable inflation excluding food and energy[10] Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - Risks include stronger-than-expected employment data, a rebound in inflation, and fiscal sustainability issues in major economies like the UK and France, which could lead to rising global long-term rates[28] - A strategic recommendation is to focus on long positions in 5-year U.S. Treasuries due to the anticipated downward pressure on natural rates[3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is still digesting the Fed's and Powell's hawkish remarks, causing copper prices to oscillate at a low level. Short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has led to a decline in copper prices, but downstream procurement provides some support, and copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation [1][2][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Thursday, LME copper prices tumbled. On Friday (20250919), SHFE copper prices showed a relatively strong oscillation at a low level. The main 2510 contract closed at 79,850 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's close. The spot market was relatively stable, with downstream enterprises actively replenishing stocks before the weekend, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized. The refined - scrap spread in major Chinese markets continued to decline, with 1,526 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1,473 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomics and Fundamentals - The market is digesting Powell's "risk - management style rate cuts", which are preventive and emphasize a "one - time" feature. Short - term focus on this type of rate cut has overshadowed the two expected rate cuts by the end of the year shown in the dot - plot. This led to an extreme decline in SHFE copper futures prices on Thursday's Asian session, and prices remained weak on Friday. The market needs more time to absorb Powell's hawkish remarks. Fundamentally, the support for copper prices is limited. China's economy is under pressure, copper consumption lacks highlights, and the increasing COMEX copper inventory dampens the enthusiasm of funds to go long on COMEX copper prices. Although SHFE copper has the best fundamentals among the three, it is also affected by China's macro - economic environment [2][10]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market's short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has caused a correction in risk assets including copper. Copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation, and the active procurement of downstream enterprises after price drops provides some support for prices [11].

Group 1: Economic Overview - In August, general public budget revenue growth was 2.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening fiscal expansion[4] - August public budget expenditure growth was 0.8%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second-lowest level of the year[6] - Government fund revenue in August fell by 6.0%, a significant drop of 15.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to declining land transfer income[7] Group 2: Market Trends - The bond market is experiencing rising yields, influenced more by risk appetite and trading behavior rather than fundamental economic data[2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December, which may support a strong performance in the U.S. stock market[2][17] - The S&P 500 index has been fluctuating around 3800, with TMT sectors showing strong performance while dividend-paying sectors lag behind[11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The effectiveness of growth stabilization policies in the fourth quarter remains uncertain, particularly in the real estate, manufacturing, and consumption sectors[10] - The ongoing liquidity environment and fiscal expansion are expected to provide a basic support for the equity market, especially benefiting small-cap stocks[11][21] - The anticipated U.S. rate cuts and tax reduction policies may further bolster the U.S. economy, leading to a continued strong performance in the stock market[21]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a decline of 4.02% from September 15 to September 19, ranking low among all primary industries, with various sub-sectors showing mixed performance [2][5]. Summary by Category Overall Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector fell by 4.02% during the week, ranking low among all primary industries [2]. - Among the sub-sectors, energy metals increased by 1.25%, while metal new materials, industrial metals, precious metals, and small metals declined by 3.06%, 3.90%, 6.17%, and 7.66% respectively [2]. Industrial Metals - Demand for industrial metals is slowly recovering as the peak season approaches, but the recovery is weak. The recent interest rate cut in the U.S. led to profit-taking, resulting in a pullback in industrial metals [2]. - As of September 19, copper prices fell, with LME copper at $9,997 per ton (down 0.71%) and SHFE copper at ¥79,910 per ton (down 1.42%) [3]. - Supply constraints are expected as domestic copper smelting plants undergo maintenance, and the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is temporarily shut down due to an accident [3]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices recorded a decline due to dissipating sanctions sentiment against Russia and profit-taking following the interest rate cut. LME aluminum closed at $2,676 per ton (down 0.93%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,795 per ton (down 1.54%) as of September 19 [4][5]. - The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry remained unchanged at 44.085 million tons, with slight increases in production utilization rates for aluminum products [4]. Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a pullback due to profit-taking after the interest rate cut, with COMEX gold closing at $3,719.40 per ounce (up 1.05%) and SHFE gold at ¥830.56 per gram (down 0.44%) [6]. - The U.S. economic data exceeded expectations, contributing to the market's reaction to the interest rate cut, which is expected to benefit precious metals in the medium term [6].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have been on an upward trend, reaching historical highs, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1][2][4]. Price Movements - As of September 22, the spot price of London gold reached a historical high of $3726.70 per ounce, marking an increase of nearly 8% from the opening price of $3447.50 per ounce on September 1 [1][2]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 40% [1]. Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% has caused fluctuations in gold prices [2]. - Following the rate cut, gold prices initially fell but rebounded due to ongoing expectations of further rate cuts and rising geopolitical risks [2][3]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that while some investors took profits after the rate cut, the overall sentiment remains bullish due to expectations of continued monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainties [3][4]. - Central banks are still in a net buying position for gold, indicating strong demand despite high prices [4]. Future Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected as some investors may choose to take profits, but long-term trends remain positive due to ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical risks [4]. - UBS Wealth Management anticipates that gold will continue to be a strong asset for portfolio diversification and risk hedging, supported by a weaker dollar and strong central bank buying [4].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December of the previous year, with a total reduction of 125 basis points in the current easing cycle [2] - The median of the latest dot plot indicates an additional 50 basis points of potential cuts by 2025, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in the labor market and rising inflation, with Chairman Powell adopting a somewhat hawkish tone, indicating that the next steps in monetary policy remain unclear [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Dollar Performance - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slowdown, with rising expectations for further Fed rate cuts, putting pressure on the dollar [3] - The total U.S. federal debt has reached $36.2 trillion, with public holdings at $28.95 trillion, nearly 80% of the total [3] - Concerns over the sustainability of U.S. government debt are increasing, which may weaken the dollar's status as a safe-haven currency [3] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Global gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, reaching 1249 tons, with a significant 45% rise in value to $132 billion [4] - Central banks remain a crucial pillar of gold demand, with official reserves increasing by 166 tons in Q2, reflecting a long-term strategic approach to optimize foreign exchange reserves [4] - Geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of further Fed rate cuts are driving strong investment demand for gold, despite pressure on gold jewelry consumption due to high prices [4][5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The combination of a slowing U.S. economy, concerns over the Fed's independence, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties supports gold prices [5] - In the medium to long term, continued central bank purchases, along with global liquidity easing and de-dollarization trends, may lead to an upward shift in gold price levels [5]

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to above 4.14% after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, despite expectations of a decline [1][2] - The stock market reached record highs with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000 indices all setting new records [1] - The rise in long-term bond yields is attributed to market behavior of "buying the expectation and selling the fact" following the Fed's rate cut [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns about persistent inflation are significant, as recent data indicates that inflation remains sticky, complicating the Fed's ability to lower rates further [2][5] - High long-term yields increase government interest payments, potentially exacerbating the fiscal deficit and creating a vicious cycle [3][6] - The current economic environment poses a challenge for sustaining long-term financing costs above 4% [3] Group 3 - Future downward potential for long-term yields may be limited, with the Fed's dot plot indicating a median forecast for the federal funds rate at 3.6% by the end of 2025 [4][5] - The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts suggests that long-term Treasury yields may not quickly fall below 3% [5][6] - The market is adapting to a "higher for longer" interest rate environment, necessitating a reassessment of asset allocations [7]