1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report In September 2025, multiple employment data in the US indicated a cooling labor market, and the cost - pressure transmission of tariff adjustments was still slow. The economic recovery momentum in the Eurozone, Japan, etc., increased. In terms of monetary policy, the Fed's restart of interest rate cuts was fulfilled as expected, which was defined as a "risk - management - style" cut by Powell and was somewhat hawkish. The European and British central banks remained on hold, waiting for the tariff impact to become clearer. In October, attention should be paid to the fundamental performance of major countries, and the intensification of capital market volatility risks should be vigilant [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overseas Economy: Divergent Monetary Policy Trends and Overall Controllable Inflation Pressure 3.1.1 Global Economy: Resilient Economy and Manufacturing PMI Back in Expansion Zone The global economy remained resilient, and the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone. In August, the J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI index was 50.9%, up 1.2 percentage points from 49.7% in July. Only the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI was above the 50 boom - bust line among major overseas countries. The global services PMI index decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 53.4% in August, maintaining high - level prosperity. In trade, the Baltic Dry Index fluctuated upward, and South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of September increased by 13.5% year - on - year. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, the European and British central banks remained on hold, and the Bank of Japan sent hawkish signals. The US Treasury Secretary considered "all stabilization options" to support Argentina [8]. 3.1.2 Developed Economies: Resilient Economies in Major Countries and Potentially Controllable Inflation Pressure - **US: Slowing Fundamental Growth Momentum and Cooling Labor Market** - Economic growth showed a divergence in prosperity. Manufacturing continued to contract, while the service industry expanded faster. In August, the US ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7%, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose to 52.0%. - Newly added employment was far below expectations, and the unemployment rate reached a new high. In August, the non - farm payrolls increased by 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. - The inflation level was relatively moderate, and the pressure on commodity prices from tariffs was limited. In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year. - Retail sales remained resilient, and the sustainability of consumption momentum needed attention. In August, US retail sales increased by 0.62% month - on - month. - The real estate market was restricted by high mortgage rates and rising housing prices [21][22][23]. - **Eurozone: Strengthening Recovery Momentum, Divergent Prosperity in the UK and Japan, and Unstable Manufacturing Recovery Foundation** - The Eurozone's recovery momentum increased. In August, the composite PMI rose to 51.0%, and the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7%. - The UK's manufacturing continued to contract, while business activities in the service industry accelerated expansion. In August, the UK's manufacturing PMI fell to 47.0%, and the service industry PMI rose to 54.2%. - Japan's economic prosperity was divergent. In August, the composite PMI rose to 52.0%, and the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7%. - In terms of inflation, the Eurozone's inflation remained stable month - on - month, the UK faced greater pressure, and Japan's inflation remained high [35][37][39]. 3.2 Monetary Policy: US Restarts Rate Cuts, Europe and UK are Cautious, and Japan Sends More Hawkish Signals 3.2.1 Fed: "Risk - Management - Style" Rate Cut Implemented, Focus on Downward Employment Risks On September 18, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time this year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25BP to 4.0% - 4.25%. The policy balance shifted from focusing on inflation rebound to employment stall risks. The dot - plot predicted two more rate cuts in October and December. Whether to cut rates again in October depends on the performance of September's non - farm data, and the Fed's independence and the composition of the new council members have increased the uncertainty of future rate - cut prospects [54]. 3.2.2 ECB: ECB Continues to Hold Rates Steady, Inflation Risks are Roughly Balanced On September 11, the ECB held rates steady, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%. It believed that manufacturing and services were growing, and previous rate cuts would further boost consumption and investment. It raised inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 and lowered those for 2027. In the future, it may continue to make data - dependent and meeting - by - meeting decisions [58]. 3.2.3 BoJ: Increased Probability of Interest Rate Hike, Planned Reduction of ETF and Other Assets On September 19, the BoJ kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and decided to gradually sell ETF and J - REITs in the market. Two officials voted against and supported a 25 - basis - point rate hike. If economic and price forecasts are realized, the BoJ may continue to raise interest rates, increasing the possibility of restarting rate hikes this year [61]. 3.2.4 BoE: BoE Maintains Interest Rates, Slows Down Quantitative Tightening, and Reduces Expectations of Rate Cuts This Year On September 18, the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the policy rate at 4% and announced a reduction in the scale of central bank balance - sheet contraction from October. Concerns about inflation rebound made the market cautious about further rate cuts by the BoE this year [64]. 3.3 Financial Markets: US Treasury Yields First Declined and Then Rose, the US Dollar Index Weakened, and International Oil Prices Fluctuated 3.3.1 US Bond Market: Cooling Labor Market and Fed Rate Cut Implementation Led to Fluctuations in US Treasury Yields In September, the US bond market focused on the weakening labor market and the Fed's rate cut. In the first and middle of the month, the yield dropped from 4.28% to around 4%. In the late month, it rebounded to around 4.15%. Overall, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 2BP to 3.61%, and the 10 - year yield fell 8BP to 4.15% [67][68]. 3.3.2 Exchange - Rate Market: Weakening US Dollar Index, Fluctuating Japanese Yen, and Strengthening Euro and Pound - The US dollar index was overall weak. In early September, the downward risks in the labor market increased rate - cut expectations and pressured the US dollar. In the middle and late months, the Fed's rate cut was less dovish than expected, and the US dollar index rebounded. - The Japanese yen fluctuated in a narrow range between 146 - 148 due to the US dollar index and domestic political uncertainties. - The euro and pound strengthened overall. In the first and middle of the month, the Eurozone's economic indicators were positive, and the pound was supported by the UK's fiscal policy and the BoE's stance [69][70]. 3.3.3 International Crude Oil: Geopolitical Frictions and Oil - Demand Outlook Caused Volatility in Crude Oil Prices In September, international oil prices fluctuated around $63 per barrel. In early September, concerns about OPEC + production increases and US economic recession led to a price drop. Then, geopolitical tensions and reduced concerns about supply surpluses pushed prices up. In the middle and late months, the Fed's statement on employment risks and EU sanctions on Russia caused prices to fall again [74].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite the recent interest rate cut, the current monetary policy stance remains "moderately restrictive," suggesting potential for further rate cuts if labor market weakness continues to outweigh inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4%–4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025, described by Powell as a "risk management cut" to address warning signs in the labor market [1]. - Powell highlighted the dual risks of inflation and employment, stating that rapid or excessive rate cuts could keep inflation around 3%, deviating from the Fed's 2% target, while prolonged tight policies could unnecessarily suppress the labor market [2]. - Recent data indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth, complicating the assessment of economic conditions, with labor supply shrinking due to stricter immigration enforcement policies [2][4]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Powell emphasized the need for vigilance regarding the inflation effects of tariffs imposed by President Trump, noting that tariff increases would take time to filter through supply chains, leading to a temporary rise in price levels over several quarters [2][3]. - The latest data and surveys suggest that price increases are primarily due to tariff hikes rather than broader price pressures [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation and Financial Stability - Powell acknowledged that stock market prices are relatively high, indicating that the Fed monitors the overall financial environment and assesses whether its policies are influencing it as intended [5]. - Despite recognizing the high valuations in the stock market, Powell stated that it is not currently a time of rising financial stability risks [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025 and the fourth cut since 2024 [1][2][12] - The decision was supported by 11 out of 12 voting members, indicating a consensus on the need for a rate cut, although there was some internal disagreement regarding the extent of the cut [2][3] - Fed Chairman Powell's statements were characterized as "hawkish," emphasizing the need for risk management and indicating that future rate adjustments would not be made hastily [1][4][6] Group 2 - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in the labor market, with a noted increase in risks to employment, while inflation remains elevated [3][5] - The Fed's economic forecasts showed a divergence among officials regarding future interest rates, with expectations for two more rate cuts this year, but some officials predicting no further cuts [3][4][12] - The labor market has shown signs of significant weakening, with recent data indicating a drop in non-farm payrolls and an increase in the unemployment rate [8][9] Group 3 - The overall inflation rate in the U.S. has shown a slight decline, primarily driven by a decrease in core services inflation, while core goods inflation has increased [7][8] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is seen as a response to the dual pressures of rising inflation and a weakening labor market, with a focus on managing risks associated with these trends [5][9] - The market anticipates further rate cuts in October and December, with expectations for a cautious approach from the Fed moving forward [14][16] Group 4 - The Fed's independence has been a concern amid political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, but Powell has maintained a rational and independent stance [13] - The future trajectory of the Fed's monetary policy will depend heavily on economic data, with a focus on balancing inflation risks against employment risks [14][16] - The outlook for gold prices remains strong in the medium to long term, supported by central bank purchases and a global trend towards de-dollarization, despite short-term pressures from rate cuts [16]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite the recent interest rate cut, the current monetary policy stance remains "moderately restrictive," suggesting potential for further rate cuts if labor market weakness continues to outweigh inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4%–4.25%, marking the first rate cut of 2025, described by Powell as a "risk management cut" to address warning signs in the labor market [1]. - Powell emphasized the dual risks of inflation and employment, stating that if rates are cut too quickly or too much, inflation could remain around 3% instead of approaching the Fed's 2% target [1][2]. - Recent data indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. job growth, complicating the assessment of economic conditions, particularly with the impact of President Trump's immigration policies on labor supply [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - Powell warned about the potential sustained inflation effects from tariff increases, noting that price levels could rise due to supply chain adjustments, with impacts spreading over several quarters [2][3]. - The recent price increases are primarily attributed to tariff hikes rather than broader price pressures, indicating a specific inflationary concern linked to trade policies [3]. Group 3: Market Valuation and Financial Stability - Powell acknowledged that stock market prices appear relatively high, suggesting that the Fed monitors the overall financial environment and its impact on policy effectiveness [5]. - Despite recognizing high stock valuations, Powell stated that it is not currently a time of rising financial stability risks [6].

Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is facing "stagflation-like" challenges with noticeable weakness in economic growth and the job market, while inflation remains high [1][2] - Recent data indicates a slowdown in economic growth, a slight increase in unemployment, and a cooling consumer spending environment, despite inflation levels exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1][2] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve recently implemented its first interest rate cut since 2025, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, described as a "risk management" operation [1][2] - The latest dot plot suggests three potential rate cuts in 2025, an increase from the previous forecast of two, although there is significant internal division among Fed officials regarding the pace of rate cuts [1][2] Labor Market and Immigration - The labor supply and demand in the U.S. are weakening, exacerbated by tightened immigration policies under the Trump administration, leading to increased job market challenges [2] - There are growing divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the need for aggressive rate cuts to prevent falling behind economic conditions [2] Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.11%, while the stock market experienced declines, particularly in technology stocks [3][4] - Market expectations indicate a potential total rate cut of approximately 43 basis points by year-end, with some investors speculating on a possible 50 basis point cut in a future meeting [3][4] Financial Stability - Powell noted that while U.S. stock market valuations appear relatively high, there are currently no significant signs of increased financial stability risks [3] - Upcoming key economic data, including GDP and core PCE, may further influence market volatility and the Federal Reserve's policy direction [4]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, aligning with market expectations[9] - The dot plot indicates a median rate expectation of 3.5%-3.75% by year-end, suggesting a total of 50 basis points of potential rate cuts remaining this year[24] - There is significant divergence among committee members regarding future monetary policy, with some advocating for higher rates based on perceptions of a higher natural rate[2] Group 2: Labor Market Analysis - Non-farm payroll data shows a decline in labor force participation, which may suppress potential economic growth and push down the natural rate[3] - A notable increase in the percentage of workers finding it difficult to secure jobs was observed in August, indicating potential weakness in the employment market[3] - The labor market's stagnation could mask underlying employment pressures, as many discouraged workers exit the labor force[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims have shown a rapid increase since early August, although recent data indicates some relief[10] - Retail sales in the U.S. have been recovering since early 2024, with positive year-on-year growth maintained for three consecutive months post-May[10] - Japan's CPI and core CPI fell to 2.7% in August, indicating stable inflation excluding food and energy[10] Group 4: Risks and Recommendations - Risks include stronger-than-expected employment data, a rebound in inflation, and fiscal sustainability issues in major economies like the UK and France, which could lead to rising global long-term rates[28] - A strategic recommendation is to focus on long positions in 5-year U.S. Treasuries due to the anticipated downward pressure on natural rates[3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is still digesting the Fed's and Powell's hawkish remarks, causing copper prices to oscillate at a low level. Short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has led to a decline in copper prices, but downstream procurement provides some support, and copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation [1][2][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures and Spot Markets - On Thursday, LME copper prices tumbled. On Friday (20250919), SHFE copper prices showed a relatively strong oscillation at a low level. The main 2510 contract closed at 79,850 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day's close. The spot market was relatively stable, with downstream enterprises actively replenishing stocks before the weekend, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized. The refined - scrap spread in major Chinese markets continued to decline, with 1,526 yuan/ton in Guangdong and 1,473 yuan/ton in Tianjin [1]. 3.2 Macroeconomics and Fundamentals - The market is digesting Powell's "risk - management style rate cuts", which are preventive and emphasize a "one - time" feature. Short - term focus on this type of rate cut has overshadowed the two expected rate cuts by the end of the year shown in the dot - plot. This led to an extreme decline in SHFE copper futures prices on Thursday's Asian session, and prices remained weak on Friday. The market needs more time to absorb Powell's hawkish remarks. Fundamentally, the support for copper prices is limited. China's economy is under pressure, copper consumption lacks highlights, and the increasing COMEX copper inventory dampens the enthusiasm of funds to go long on COMEX copper prices. Although SHFE copper has the best fundamentals among the three, it is also affected by China's macro - economic environment [2][10]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market's short - term focus on "risk - management style rate cuts" has caused a correction in risk assets including copper. Copper prices are currently in a range - bound oscillation, and the active procurement of downstream enterprises after price drops provides some support for prices [11].

Group 1: Economic Overview - In August, general public budget revenue growth was 2.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening fiscal expansion[4] - August public budget expenditure growth was 0.8%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second-lowest level of the year[6] - Government fund revenue in August fell by 6.0%, a significant drop of 15.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to declining land transfer income[7] Group 2: Market Trends - The bond market is experiencing rising yields, influenced more by risk appetite and trading behavior rather than fundamental economic data[2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December, which may support a strong performance in the U.S. stock market[2][17] - The S&P 500 index has been fluctuating around 3800, with TMT sectors showing strong performance while dividend-paying sectors lag behind[11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The effectiveness of growth stabilization policies in the fourth quarter remains uncertain, particularly in the real estate, manufacturing, and consumption sectors[10] - The ongoing liquidity environment and fiscal expansion are expected to provide a basic support for the equity market, especially benefiting small-cap stocks[11][21] - The anticipated U.S. rate cuts and tax reduction policies may further bolster the U.S. economy, leading to a continued strong performance in the stock market[21]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a decline of 4.02% from September 15 to September 19, ranking low among all primary industries, with various sub-sectors showing mixed performance [2][5]. Summary by Category Overall Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector fell by 4.02% during the week, ranking low among all primary industries [2]. - Among the sub-sectors, energy metals increased by 1.25%, while metal new materials, industrial metals, precious metals, and small metals declined by 3.06%, 3.90%, 6.17%, and 7.66% respectively [2]. Industrial Metals - Demand for industrial metals is slowly recovering as the peak season approaches, but the recovery is weak. The recent interest rate cut in the U.S. led to profit-taking, resulting in a pullback in industrial metals [2]. - As of September 19, copper prices fell, with LME copper at $9,997 per ton (down 0.71%) and SHFE copper at ¥79,910 per ton (down 1.42%) [3]. - Supply constraints are expected as domestic copper smelting plants undergo maintenance, and the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is temporarily shut down due to an accident [3]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices recorded a decline due to dissipating sanctions sentiment against Russia and profit-taking following the interest rate cut. LME aluminum closed at $2,676 per ton (down 0.93%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,795 per ton (down 1.54%) as of September 19 [4][5]. - The theoretical operating capacity of China's electrolytic aluminum industry remained unchanged at 44.085 million tons, with slight increases in production utilization rates for aluminum products [4]. Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a pullback due to profit-taking after the interest rate cut, with COMEX gold closing at $3,719.40 per ounce (up 1.05%) and SHFE gold at ¥830.56 per gram (down 0.44%) [6]. - The U.S. economic data exceeded expectations, contributing to the market's reaction to the interest rate cut, which is expected to benefit precious metals in the medium term [6].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have been on an upward trend, reaching historical highs, driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1][2][4]. Price Movements - As of September 22, the spot price of London gold reached a historical high of $3726.70 per ounce, marking an increase of nearly 8% from the opening price of $3447.50 per ounce on September 1 [1][2]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 40% [1]. Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% has caused fluctuations in gold prices [2]. - Following the rate cut, gold prices initially fell but rebounded due to ongoing expectations of further rate cuts and rising geopolitical risks [2][3]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that while some investors took profits after the rate cut, the overall sentiment remains bullish due to expectations of continued monetary easing and geopolitical uncertainties [3][4]. - Central banks are still in a net buying position for gold, indicating strong demand despite high prices [4]. Future Outlook - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected as some investors may choose to take profits, but long-term trends remain positive due to ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical risks [4]. - UBS Wealth Management anticipates that gold will continue to be a strong asset for portfolio diversification and risk hedging, supported by a weaker dollar and strong central bank buying [4].