Group 1 - The core CPI for May is 2.8%, marking the lowest level since March 2021, indicating a stabilization in inflation growth [1][3] - The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.1% in May, lower than the expected 0.2%, suggesting a slower inflation rate [3] - Energy prices, particularly gasoline, have significantly impacted the overall price level, with energy prices down 1% and gasoline prices down 2.6% in May [3][7] Group 2 - Clothing and automobile prices unexpectedly declined, indicating that the anticipated impact of tariffs on these goods has not fully materialized [1][3] - Food prices saw a slight increase, while housing prices remained stable, suggesting mixed trends in consumer goods [7] - Economists believe that the true impact of tariffs on inflation may not be evident until later in the year, as retailers and manufacturers have pre-purchased goods [7][9] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is cautious about the potential impact of tariffs on inflation, with market expectations indicating no interest rate cuts before September [7][9] - Analysts suggest that the current price increases may be temporary due to businesses still digesting inventory and demand not fully rebounding [9] - The upcoming months' inflation trends will be influenced by multiple factors, including tariff policies, consumer demand, and labor market changes [9]

智通财经6月13日电，西班牙5月份CPI同比上升2.0%，预估为1.9%。 ...

智通财经6月13日电，阿根廷5月CPI环比上升1.5%，创2020年5月份以来最慢，预期上升2.00%；5月CPI 同比上升43.5%，预期上升44.60%。5月布宜诺斯艾利斯CPI环比上升1.5%，同比上升43.8%。 阿根廷5月CPI环比上升1.5% ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the potential impacts of tariffs on inflation, highlighting that the CPI has been consistently below market expectations for three consecutive months [2][10]. Group 1: CPI Trends - In May, the CPI year-on-year increased from 2.3% to 2.4%, which was below Bloomberg's expectation of 2.5%. The core CPI remained stable at 2.8%, also below the expected 2.9% [2][20]. - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.1%, lower than both the expected and previous values of 0.2%. The core CPI also increased by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% [2][20]. - The proportion of CPI items with a year-on-year increase exceeding 2% rose from 37.7% to 40.8%, indicating a widening inflation breadth [20]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The article identifies several factors that may have suppressed the impact of tariffs on inflation, including the suspension and reduction of reciprocal tariffs and micro-level tax avoidance measures [3][10]. - The effective tariff rate in April was only 7.07%, significantly lower than estimates of 13-20% from overseas institutions, suggesting that various avoidance strategies have mitigated the tariff impact [3][10]. - The first sale rule allows importers to calculate tariffs based on the initial sale price, which may further reduce the effective tariff burden [11]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Consumer Behavior - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the futures market pricing in an average of 1.97 rate cuts for the year, up from 1.73 [2][29]. - Consumer inflation expectations have risen, with one-year and five-year inflation expectations remaining at their highest levels in 45 and 25 years, respectively [5][13]. - Despite concerns about price increases, a significant majority of retail executives plan to raise prices, indicating ongoing pressure for price transmission in the market [6][15].

分析师密切关注PPI报告，因为其中的一些组成部分被用来计算美联储偏爱的通胀指标——个人消费支 出(PCE)价格指数。这些类别在5月份表现疲软：机票和投资组合管理费下降，而医疗保健成本也较为温 和。PCE报告将于本月晚些时候发布。 在美国总统特朗普今年4月宣布对贸易伙伴征收高额关税后，美国企业近几周一直在努力应对反复无常 的贸易政策。 特朗普表示，他打算在未来一到两周内向贸易伙伴发送信函，设定单边关税税率，以便在7月9日的最后 期限之前对数十个经济体重新征收更高的关税。 智通财经APP获悉，美国5月份生产者价格指数(PPI)总体保持温和，这表明关税尚未导致消费者和企业 价格上涨。美国劳工统计局周四公布的报告显示，5月PPI环比上涨0.1%，涨幅低于市场预期的0.2%。 扣除食品和能源后的核心PPI也环比上涨0.1%。 此前公布的5月美国消费者价格指数(CPI)显示，通胀连续第四个月保持温和。尽管到目前为止，加征关 税对美国民众的影响尚不显著，但经济学家预计，随着企业希望防范利润率进一步走软，价格压力将在 今年下半年加大。 PPI数据显示，5月份批发和零售商的利润率有所上升，尤其是汽车和机械批发，而此前一个月的利 ...

CPI公布降息预期提振？黄金日内上涨能否突破前高？中东局势骤然紧张，后市趋势如何演变？TTPS团 队交易学长正在分析，立即观看！ 相关链接 ...

印度5月份CPI同比增长2.82%，预估为2.98%。 ...

策略师：低于预期的CPI令人宽慰 但关税通胀"定时炸弹"仍存 金十数据6月11日讯，Principal Asset Management首席全球策略师Seema Shah表示，今日低于预期的通胀 数据确实令人宽慰，但仅限于一定程度。关税驱动的价格上涨可能还需数月才会完全体现在CPI数据 中，现在就断言价格冲击不会到来还为时尚早。 ...

美国财长贝森特：总统特朗普的政策使得CPI"大幅"改善。 通胀（数据）表明，特朗普使得（形势）"实质性改善"。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows that steel has shifted to inventory accumulation, with seasonal recovery in power plant daily consumption and mixed trends in various industries' production and demand [2][3]. - Inflation indicates that the agricultural product price index is stronger than the same period last year, with weak pig prices in CPI and a continuous rebound in oil prices in PPI [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Steel Shifts to Inventory Accumulation 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Recovery in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has a seasonal recovery. On June 10, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 736,000 tons, up 1.4% from June 3; on June 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 1.718 million tons, up 1.6% from May 29 [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate has a mild decline. On June 6, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from May 30; the capacity utilization rate was 90.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from May 30. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 95.2% on June 6, up 1.7 percentage points from May 30 [5][18]. - The tire operating rate has a second decline. On June 5, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 63.5%, down 1.3 percentage points from May 29; the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 73.9%, down 4.4 percentage points from May 29. The loom operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has declined for two consecutive weeks [5][21]. 3.1.2 Demand: Steel Shifts to Inventory Accumulation - The property market sales show a continuous improvement trend month - on - month. From June 1 - 10, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 208,000 square meters, up 13.0% from the same period in May, but down compared with the same periods in previous years [5][25]. - The auto market retail is stable and strong. In June, retail sales increased by 19% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 10% year - on - year [5][29]. - Steel prices have a limited rebound. On June 10, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil increased by 0.6%, 0.8%, 0.6%, and 0.1% respectively compared with June 3. Steel has shifted to inventory accumulation, with the inventory of five major steel products reaching 935,900 tons on June 6, up 3,400 tons from May 30 [5][35]. - Cement prices have a partial rebound. On June 10, the national cement price index increased by 0.6% compared with June 3, with prices in East China and the Yangtze River region rising by 2.1% and 2.3% respectively [5][36]. - Glass prices have a slight rebound. On June 10, the active glass futures contract price was 996.0 yuan/ton, up 3.3% from June 3 [5][41]. - The container shipping freight rate index has a continuous upward trend. On June 6, the CCFI index increased by 3.3% compared with May 30, and the SCFI index increased by 8.1% [5][44]. 3.2 Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index Stronger than the Same Period Last Year 3.2.1 CPI: Weak Pig Prices - Pig prices are running weakly. On June 10, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.3 yuan/kg, down 1.4% from June 3. The month - on - month price has turned down [5][52]. - The agricultural product price index is stronger than the same period last year. On June 10, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.6% compared with June 3. Different agricultural products have different price trends [5][57]. 3.2.2 PPI: Continuous Rebound in Oil Prices - Oil prices have a continuous rebound. On June 10, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 69.9 and 65.0 dollars/barrel respectively, up 2.6% and 2.5% respectively from the previous week [5][60]. - Copper and aluminum prices have increased. On June 10, the LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices increased by 1.9% and 1.2% respectively compared with June 3. The decline in the domestic commodity index month - on - month has narrowed [5][64]. - Industrial product prices have generally weakened. Since June, most industrial product prices have shown a year - on - year decline, with the decline in coking coal and coke prices being more prominent [66].