Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the exchange rate between the Japanese yen and the US dollar, driven by escalating trade tensions between the US and China, and the impact of inflation data on currency trading dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Movements - On April 11, the exchange rate of the yen against the dollar rose to the range of 142 yen per dollar, surpassing the previous high of 143.99 yen on April 9, marking the largest appreciation of the yen and depreciation of the dollar since early September 2024 [1]. - The market has seen an increased tendency to sell the dollar compared to other major currencies due to heightened vigilance regarding US-China trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Trade Tariffs and Economic Indicators - The US announced an additional tariff rate of 145% on China, which is an increase from the previously stated 125% by President Trump, based on a 20% extra tariff that took effect in February and March [1]. - In retaliation, China implemented an 84% additional tariff on US goods, further escalating the trade conflict [2]. - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, which was below market expectations of 2.6%, alleviating some concerns regarding inflation in the US and contributing to the trend of selling the dollar [2].

弘则研究 关税再次 180 度大反转，宏观商品怎么看 20250410 2025-04-11 摘要 • 特朗普关税政策具有高度不确定性，虽短期内对部分国家豁免关税，但对 中国仍维持高关税，导致人民币汇率存在贬值压力，尤其在离岸市场，但 中国政府有能力控制汇率波动。 • 对中国单独征收高额关税虽不利，但不会造成"灭顶之灾"，中国可通过 提升产品力、技术力及性价比优势维持出口增长，并利用转口贸易等方式 维持出口份额。 • 中美贸易战升级为金融战的可能性存在，但风险极高，可能导致两国金融 市场遭受严重冲击，特别是美国金融市场可能因资金加速流出而遭受更大 损失。 • 中国将循序渐进地推出应对政策，如降息降准、地产政策及财政刺激等， 以应对挑战。预计中国总出口量不会受到重大影响，A 股市场中长期仍具 潜力。 • 铜价受全球经济需求预期影响大，特朗普关税政策转变被认为是反弹而非 反转，对铜价产生一定支撑，但整体趋势仍看空二季度铜价。 Q&A 最近美国关税政策的变化有哪些主要内容？ 最近美国关税政策出现了显著变化。首先，美国宣布对大部分国家实施 90 天 的关税豁免，但具体细节仍有待明确，尤其是对欧洲的处理方式。此外，特朗 ...

Summary of the Conference Call Company and Industry - The conference call discusses **易德龙 (Yidelong)**, a company involved in manufacturing and supply chain management, particularly in response to U.S.-China trade tensions and global supply chain risks. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Strategic Shift to Vietnam**: 易德龙 established production lines in Vietnam to avoid U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports, effectively lowering costs and gradually shifting operations to Vietnam in response to U.S.-China trade friction [2][3][4] 2. **Global Production Network**: The company has set up production bases in Mexico and Romania to serve North American and European markets, creating a global layout with three overseas bases (Vietnam, Mexico, Romania) and two domestic bases (Suzhou, Wuhan) [2][4] 3. **Origin Rules Compliance**: 易德龙 utilizes origin rules such as tariff classification change (KCTC) and local value content (LVC) to obtain Vietnamese origin certificates, thus avoiding tariffs [2][8] 4. **Impact of Tariff Policies**: Changes in tariff policies significantly affect export and import operations. The company has adapted by sourcing materials through Singapore to avoid high import tariffs [2][12] 5. **Cost Comparison**: Manufacturing costs in China are benchmarked at 100, with Vietnam at 102-105, Romania at 110-120, and Mexico at 115-125, indicating that Vietnam is the most efficient location [3][19] 6. **Response to Trade Policies**: The company advises manufacturers to adopt cautious strategies in global layouts, establishing bases in North America, Europe, and Southeast Asia to mitigate risks [3][24] 7. **Logistics and Procurement Strategies**: The company has optimized logistics by using Singapore as a logistics hub, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs associated with tariffs [13] 8. **Future Competitiveness**: 易德龙 plans to continue optimizing production bases, improving operational efficiency, and innovating technology to meet diverse global market demands [6][7] 9. **Challenges of U.S. Manufacturing Reshoring**: The return of manufacturing to the U.S. faces challenges due to reliance on global supply chains and high import tariffs on components [16] 10. **European Market Considerations**: European clients prioritize quality, delivery, and cost, with some still favoring Chinese production due to cost advantages despite tariffs [17][18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Third-Party Country Benefits**: Countries like Singapore benefit from the U.S.-China trade situation by acting as procurement hubs, while China faces job losses and economic impacts [23] 2. **Capital Expenditure and Capacity Planning**: Companies are advised to be cautious in capital expenditures and capacity planning, establishing bases in multiple regions to mitigate risks [24] 3. **Current Performance and Future Outlook**: 易德龙's performance in 2024 is strong, with growth potential in 2025 driven by new R&D initiatives and customer engagement [25]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides investment analysis and views on coking coal and coke in the black commodity futures sector on April 11, 2025 [1][5][6] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - For coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively, with an overall "oscillation approach" [1][5] - For coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively, with an overall "oscillation approach" [1][6] Group 4: Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - Core logic: During the Sino - US trade friction, the US increased import tariffs on Chinese goods to 125%, and China retaliated. The direct impact on coking coal supply - demand is limited, mainly affecting black terminal exports. The US recently suspended relevant measures for 90 days for non - retaliatory countries, reducing the tariff to 10%. Market sentiment has improved, and black commodities rebounded. However, the long - term loose pattern of coking coal remains unchanged, with high supply and imports, and slow improvement in real estate and infrastructure demand. There is still export pressure from the US and high policy uncertainty, so short - term coking coal will fluctuate widely with market sentiment [5] Coke (J) - Core logic: The US increased tariffs on China but postponed the implementation for over 75 countries for 90 days, reducing the tariff to 10%. There are still re - export channels, and the market atmosphere has slightly eased. Coke futures are oscillating at a low level. Domestically, coking plants proposed a price increase on April 9, but steel mills have not implemented it. There are long - term concerns on the cost and demand sides. Coking coal supply is loose, providing insufficient cost support, and Sino - US trade friction brings export risks. The short - term improvement in fundamentals and long - term bearish expectations are intertwined, and the US tariff policy increases concerns about external demand. It is advisable to monitor domestic policies to boost domestic demand [6]

Key Insights - The report highlights the resilience of the Chinese market amidst global uncertainties, emphasizing the advantages of domestic circulation and the potential for growth in the equity market [6][9][12] - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports, estimating a negative effect of approximately 8-10 percentage points on export growth and a 1.5-2.0 percentage point impact on GDP [5][21] - The report outlines the government's commitment to boosting domestic consumption through various policies, including a significant increase in special bonds for consumer subsidies [25][28] Macro Analysis - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year in March, while China's CPI is expected to face downward pressure, with a forecasted decline of around -0.4% in April [1][21] - The report anticipates that the Chinese government will implement a fiscal stimulus of 1.5-2 trillion yuan to support domestic demand and consumption [21][22] - The report notes that the core CPI has shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in March, indicating potential stabilization in consumer prices [19][22] Banking Sector - The report emphasizes the role of central financial institutions, such as the Central Huijin Investment, in stabilizing market expectations by increasing their holdings in ETFs [9][10] - It highlights the expected continuation of a low-interest-rate environment, which enhances the attractiveness of bank dividends and low volatility [13][12] - The report suggests that the banking sector is poised for a valuation reset, driven by increased long-term capital inflows and improved market efficiency [12][13] Consumer Sector - The report discusses the expansion of the "immediate refund" tax policy for foreign tourists, which is expected to stimulate domestic consumption and benefit high-quality domestic products [25][26][28] - It notes that the government's focus on boosting consumption is reflected in various initiatives aimed at enhancing consumer spending capabilities [25][28] - The report anticipates that the combination of the "immediate refund" policy and relaxed entry visa regulations will significantly contribute to the growth of inbound tourism consumption [26][28] Company-Specific Insights - Gu Ming (古茗) is identified as a leading brand in the Chinese tea beverage market, with a strong focus on quality and a robust expansion strategy [34][36] - The company has maintained a high average profit margin for franchisees, indicating strong brand recognition and operational efficiency [35][36] - The report highlights the company's commitment to supply chain management and R&D investment, positioning it well for future growth in the competitive market [35][36] Industry Trends - Tai Chi Co., Ltd. (太极股份) is noted for its strategic focus on AI and domestic innovation, with expectations for performance improvement in the latter half of the year [38][39] - The company has reported a decline in revenue and profit but is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic innovation initiatives [38][41] - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating advanced technologies to enhance service capabilities and drive future growth [40][41]

6连板海鸥住工（002084）发布异动公告，近日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品加征对等关税，并不断 提高关税比例，目前仍需关注关税进展情况。公司主营业务聚焦在卫浴及厨房产品整组龙头及部品部件 的制造服务与销售，其中出口美国业务占整体营收约为30%。为应对2018年以来中美贸易摩擦带来的持 续影响，公司已于2019年开始着手在越南建立水龙头生产基地，并于2022年开始出货，该布局有助于公 司更好地应对加征关税带来的潜在风险。同时，公司与客户保持密切沟通，共同协商应对策略，尽量减 少新征关税对公司的影响。后续，公司将密切关注贸易发展态势和政策走向，对涉美业务进行研判并及 时、灵活的调整经营策略；积极开拓欧洲、其它海外市场及国内市场；通过多维度的市场布局，构建全 力应对外销风险的防线，最大程度降低对公司的影响，并保持与投资者互动沟通。鉴于当前政策仍存在 较多不确定性因素，敬请广大投资者理性投资，注意投资风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a recovery in CPI year-on-year growth and an expansion in the year-on-year decline of PPI, influenced by various seasonal and input factors [1][2][4]. CPI Analysis - In March, the CPI year-on-year decline narrowed to -0.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, while the core CPI significantly rebounded to 0.5% [1][4]. - The main drag on the CPI was food prices, which fell by 1.4% month-on-month, contributing approximately 60% to the total CPI decline [6][4]. - Seasonal factors, such as warmer weather leading to increased fresh food supply, and a tourism off-season causing a drop in travel-related prices, were significant contributors to the CPI's month-on-month decline [1][6]. - Excluding food and energy, the core CPI showed improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, indicating a potential positive impact from consumption-boosting policies [1][4]. PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline expanded to -2.5% in March, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with production materials experiencing a decline of -2.8% [9][10]. - Input factors, including falling international oil prices and weakened domestic demand, significantly influenced the PPI's month-on-month and year-on-year performance [2][10]. - Specific industries, such as coal mining and oil extraction, saw notable price declines, with coal mining prices dropping by 14.9% [9][10]. - Despite the overall decline, some high-tech industries showed price improvements, with educational and pharmaceutical equipment prices increasing by 7.6% and 6.1%, respectively [9][10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets are significantly affected by macro - events such as the Sino - US trade tariff adjustment and the EU's counter - tariff measures against the US. The market sentiment is volatile, and different asset classes show various trends. In the short term, the market may experience high - volatility fluctuations, and investors are advised to wait for the situation to become clearer [7][8][21][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Tracking - **Stock Indexes**: On April 10, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was at 40608.45, up 7.87% from the previous trading day; the Nasdaq Index was at 17124.97, up 12.163%; the S&P 500 was at 5456.90, up 9.515%; the Hang Seng Index was at 20264.49, up 0.68% [2] - **Commodity Futures**: Most commodity futures showed price changes. For example, COMEX gold rose 3.385% to $3099.80, and NYMEX crude oil rose 7.694% to $62.71 [2] - **Domestic Futures**: In the domestic market, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products also had different price fluctuations. For instance, domestic gold rose 0.53% to 732 yuan/gram, and methanol rose 0.85% to 2372 yuan/ton [2][4] 2. Macro - News - **Tariff Adjustment**: The State Council Tariff Commission of China increased the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the US from 34% to 84% starting from 12:01 on April 10. The EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on US - imported products in retaliation for the US's tariff on EU steel and aluminum [7][8] - **Policy Statements**: China issued a white paper clarifying its stance on Sino - US economic and trade relations, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that it would firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. The Chinese government emphasized the implementation of more proactive macro - policies, expanding domestic demand, and stimulating the vitality of business entities [7][8] 3. Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The spot market is in a stalemate. Affected by the tariff increase on US - origin goods, the peanut market is expected to rise with oilseeds and meal, and long - spread arbitrage can be considered [13] - **Sugar**: The supply side has improved rainfall in Brazil, and the domestic syrup import suspension provides support. The demand side has good domestic sugar sales, but the short - term inventory pressure remains. It is recommended to use 6000 yuan as the key dividing line for trading [13] - **Pigs**: The national pig price is stable. The market shows an oversupply and weak demand situation, and the spot price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong [13] - **Eggs**: The spot price has rebounded due to post - holiday restocking and pre - May Day stocking, but the price increase space is limited due to supply pressure. Attention can be paid to short - selling opportunities during the rebound [15] 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The market atmosphere is weakening. The 2505 contract of caustic soda may continue to operate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of last year's low [15] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is declining. The supply is high, and the downstream demand is slowing down. The short - term price may continue to fluctuate at a high level [15] 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, the prices of copper and aluminum continue to decline. The inventory of copper has decreased, and the inventory of aluminum has increased. The market is worried about the impact of tariffs [15][17] - **Alumina**: The new production capacity of domestic alumina is being put into operation, and the supply is in surplus. The 2505 contract is expected to operate weakly [17] - **Steel Products**: The night trading prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils have risen. The spot trading volume is fair, and the inventory reduction of steel products continues, but the market is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [17] 3.4 Option Finance - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has rebounded, and the US stock market has also risen significantly. The tariff war between China and the US may have a negative impact on the global financial system. Short - term investors can wait for the situation to become clearer, and some trading strategies such as short - term volatility strategies and combination arbitrage strategies can be considered [21][23][24] - **Options**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index options have different changes. Trend investors can hold long - 50 and short - 1000 arbitrage, and volatility investors can sell put options to short - sell volatility [25][26]

4019 unks | CENTR | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | H | 唐芳郎示 | | 研究院:李泽矩 | | | 发布日期:2025/04 | | 投资咨询号:Z0000116 从业资格号:F0251925 | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 股指 | 震荡 | 股指进入反弹阶段, 但宏观利空不会一天消失,反弹也不会一蹴而就。 | | | | | 奏上建议择盘中调整时机介入多单。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 震荡 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨空间。 | | | 黄金 | 震荡 | 短期调整后料进入震荡,长期仍有上涨空间。 | | | 日 银 | 農汤 | 关税政策超预期,银价相对承压,短期或偏弱震荡。 | | | 铜 | 農汤 | 全球贸易摩擦升级,市场避险情绪升温,观望为主。 | | | 铝 | ○震荡 | 全球贸易摩擦升级,市场避险情绪升温,观望为主。由18名 | | | 氧化铝 | 震荡 | 国内氧化铝产能持续释 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西大豆产量展望基本维持稳定。阿根廷方面，未来十五天降雨有再度降雨不足的 可能。4 月美国将对中国加征 10%关税，中国发起反制，对美豆加征 10%的关税。 | | | | 美豆贸易争端暂告一段落。美豆种植意向面积公布结果同比环比调减，但美豆期末 | | | | 库存高于预期。国内市场方面，本周国内港口及大豆、豆粕库存环比下降。但 4 月 | | 豆粕 | 短线上涨 | 国内大豆进口开始放量，4-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。中美贸易摩擦再度升级， | | | | 以及阿根廷有大豆地区出现霜冻，推动昨日豆粕再创近期新高。由于实质影响在前 | | | | 期的准备中较低，但市场情绪影响较大，目前豆粕暂以事件性行情对待。短线参与 | | | | 为宜。主力【3050，3230】 | | | | 美对加籽加征关税利空加籽下跌。国内市场本周沿海油厂菜籽及菜粕库存环比下 | | | | 降，压力边际改善。中国对加拿大菜粕菜油加征 100%关税，但未包含菜籽，且可 | | | | 交割菜粕途径较多，实际利多影 ...