Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the construction and engineering sector [12]. Core Viewpoints - The Central Political Bureau meeting on April 25 emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize growth and address risks in key areas, signaling positive stability for the real estate chain [2][9]. - The meeting highlighted the importance of high-quality development to respond to external uncertainties, particularly in the context of international trade tensions, such as the escalating US-China tariff situation [8][9]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to receive policy support as a key driver for economic growth, with a focus on enhancing funding and implementing new policies [10][11]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policies - The report outlines the need for consistent policy orientation, utilizing more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, including the issuance of special bonds and maintaining liquidity to support the real economy [9][10]. Real Estate Market - The report indicates that real estate development investment in March 2025 was CNY 0.9 trillion, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, with sales and new construction areas also showing declines [62][63]. Infrastructure Investment - In March 2025, narrow infrastructure investment reached CNY 1.9 trillion, up 5.9% year-on-year, while broad infrastructure investment was CNY 2.6 trillion, reflecting a 10.7% increase [54][55]. Sector Performance - The construction sector is advised to focus on the dual themes of stabilizing growth and the "Belt and Road" initiative, with recommendations for companies with high overseas exposure to benefit from increasing international orders [11][12].

电话：0595-86778969 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2506） | 最新 3724.8 | 环比 数据指标 -8.0↓ IF次主力合约（2505） | 最新 3757.8 | 环比 -7.8↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2506） | 2621.2 | -9.2↓ IH次主力合约（2505） | 2639.0 | -8.6↓ | | | IC主力合约（2506） | 5487.2 | +12.8↑ IC次主力合约（2505） | 5573.8 | +13.4↑ | | | IM主力合约（2506） | 5773.6 | +40.4↑ IM次主力合约（2505） | 5868.0 | +35.0↑ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1118.8 | +2.0↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1816.0 | +22.2↑ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 294.2 | + ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 2.65 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 234 million, up 7.3%, slightly below expectations due to higher-than-expected impairment provisions caused by slower cash collection [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, the company achieved revenues of 1.32 billion and 470 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 32.4% and 32.2% [1] - The new orders signed in 2024 amounted to 3.87 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.2% [1] - The company’s comprehensive gross margin for 2024 was 25.49%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 514 million, an increase of 82 million year-on-year, with a cash collection/payment ratio of 106.4%/86.4% [3] Business Segmentation - In 2024, revenue from design consulting, electromechanical engineering, and equipment manufacturing was 610 million, 1.575 billion, and 399 million, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +0.63%, +46.64%, and -28.35% [2] - The design business is successfully extending into electromechanical engineering, contributing to rapid revenue growth in this segment [2] Cost and Profitability - The company’s expense ratio for 2024 was 11.5%, a decrease of 0.69 percentage points year-on-year, with net profit margin at 8.81%, down 0.2 percentage points [3] - The impairment expense as a percentage of revenue increased by 2.25 percentage points to 4.11% in 2024 [3] Future Outlook and Valuation - The company expects a favorable outlook in grain storage construction, while cold chain logistics design demand may face pressure, leading to a downward revision of future revenue forecasts [4] - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 268 million, 294 million, and 318 million, reflecting changes of -7.5% and -9.3% [4] - The target price is set at 12.57, based on a 24x PE for 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, but new contract signings showed positive growth, indicating potential recovery in the upcoming quarters [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 154.6 billion, down 12.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.47 billion, down 11.0% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 11.6%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 0.07 percentage points to 3.54% [1][2]. - The company experienced a cash outflow of 48.9 billion in operating activities for Q1 2025, which was 9.3 billion more than the previous year, primarily due to seasonal factors [2]. Contract and Order Growth - New contract signings for Q1 2025 reached 553 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, laying a solid foundation for annual growth [2]. - The breakdown of new contracts includes 493.5 billion in infrastructure construction, 15.5 billion in design, and 4.1 billion in dredging, with notable growth in overseas projects [2]. Debt and Cash Flow - As of the end of Q1 2025, the company had a debt ratio of 34.3% and a liability ratio of 75.3%, both showing slight increases compared to the previous year [2]. - The cash collection ratio for Q1 2025 was 94.9%, down 1.61 percentage points year-on-year, while the cash payment ratio was 125.5%, up 3.77 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 24.6 billion, 25.9 billion, and 27.0 billion for 2025-2027 [3]. - The target price for A shares is set at 12.11 yuan, while the target price for H shares is adjusted to 7.33 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating for both A and H shares [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting on April 25, 2025, basically continued the wording of previous meetings but emphasized implementation and accelerating efforts. It showed a policy approach of speeding up the implementation of existing policies while reserving room for incremental policies to deal with "international economic and trade struggles" [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Overall Tone - The meeting affirmed the 5.4% GDP growth in Q1 and the resilience of the stock market. It adopted an attitude of not rushing to increase policies, focusing on implementing policies from previous meetings. However, it required policies to be "accelerated, intensified, and fully utilized", with accelerated implementation being a practical measure for stable growth [4]. - Although there were not many new incremental policies, the policy - makers were worried about the external situation. They added a paragraph on future policy space, indicating that reserve policies would be introduced according to the actual situation [5]. 3.2 Main Policy Orientations - The overall policy tone and specific measures in the monetary and fiscal fields generally continued from previous meetings, but with an emphasis on accelerating implementation. For example, in the "local government special bonds and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds", the requirement of "accelerating issuance and use" was added [7][8]. 3.3 Outlook on Potential Policy Space Monetary Policy - In terms of aggregate tools, the short - term probability of comprehensive liquidity injection is low as the base money gap is not large. However, if external pressure increases or economic data deteriorates, aggregate monetary policies may be implemented. If the Fed cuts interest rates in the second half of the year, it will open up room for domestic easing [10]. - For structural tools, since the meeting directly mentioned creating new structural monetary policy tools, it is likely to be implemented in Q2, targeting weak areas such as foreign trade and domestic demand [10]. Fiscal Policy - In the first half of the year, the "Two Sessions" announced quotas will be mainly used. In the second half, the annual budget deficit may be increased depending on fiscal revenue and actual deficits, possibly at the NPC Standing Committee meetings in even - numbered months. Fiscal investment is expected to tilt towards foreign trade and consumption. Budget - external fiscal tools may be implemented in Q2 [11]. Real Estate Policy - The meeting basically continued the previous tone, focusing on long - term system construction, acquisitions, and urban village renovation. If domestic economic downward pressure increases, real estate policies are likely to be strengthened [12]. 3.4 Key Areas of Future Work - The meeting put forward "Four Stabilities": "stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations", with stabilizing employment and enterprises at the forefront. Many employment - stabilizing measures were proposed, and promoting service consumption was also emphasized as a way to increase employment [14]. - The meeting continued to attach importance to technological innovation, mentioning "cultivating new productive forces", key core technology research, and the "AI +" action. It also proposed to launch a "technology board" in the bond market to support key areas [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dong'e Ejiao is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 1.719 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 425 million yuan, up 20.25% year-on-year [9] - The company's product lines, particularly the Ejiao series, are experiencing steady growth, with various marketing strategies being employed to enhance sales and reach target demographics [9] - The company has initiated a mid-term dividend distribution, with a high dividend payout ratio of 99.7% in 2024, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [9] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.864 billion, 2.215 billion, and 2.565 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 16, and 14 [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5.921 billion yuan in 2024 to 8.918 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.47% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.557 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.565 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 15.83% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.42 yuan in 2024 to 3.98 yuan in 2027 [1] - The company's return on equity (ROE) improved to 4.04% in Q1 2025, with a gross margin of 73.62% and a net profit margin of 24.73% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the resilience of China's foreign exchange market and plans to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to support employment and growth amid recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market [1][2]. Foreign Exchange Market - The impact of fluctuations in a single market or asset on China's foreign exchange reserves is generally limited, as the reserves are diversified and managed with safety, liquidity, and value preservation in mind [1]. - China's foreign exchange reserves remain stable at over $3.2 trillion, supported by a balanced international payment situation and a resilient foreign exchange market [2]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential adjustments to reserve requirement ratios and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions [3]. - The central bank aims to enhance financial support for key sectors such as technology innovation, green finance, and inclusive finance, while ensuring reasonable growth in money and credit [3]. Employment and Economic Growth - The PBOC will intensify support for employment through policies like entrepreneurship guarantee loans, particularly targeting groups such as returning migrant workers and recent graduates [4]. - Financial institutions will be guided to continue lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are heavily reliant on foreign trade and facing temporary difficulties [4]. Support for Private Enterprises - The PBOC is committed to enhancing financial services for private enterprises, ensuring a favorable monetary environment through adequate liquidity and targeted financial support measures [5]. - The central bank will broaden financing channels for private enterprises, including expanding bond financing and improving access to foreign capital [6]. Data Insights - As of March 2025, the loan balance for privately held enterprises is approximately 45 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.4 trillion yuan in the first three months of the year [6]. - The weighted average interest rate for new loans to privately held enterprises in March was about 3.41%, a decrease of 58 basis points compared to the same period last year [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [8] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 revenue of 154.6 billion, down 12.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.47 billion, down 11.0% year-on-year, primarily due to seasonal factors and high base effects. However, new contracts signed increased by 9.0% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend for future growth [1][4] - The company plans to repurchase A shares worth 500 million to 1 billion and H shares worth 250 million to 500 million, reflecting confidence in stable operations [1] - The company aims for a revenue growth target of at least 5.0% and a new contract growth target of at least 7.1% for 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, the gross profit margin was 11.6%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio slightly improved to 6.3% [2] - The net profit margin increased by 0.07 percentage points to 3.54% due to a reversal of impairment losses amounting to 521 million [2] Cash Flow and Debt - The company experienced a net cash outflow of 48.9 billion in Q1, primarily due to seasonal cash flow mismatches, with a cash collection ratio of 94.9% [3] - As of the end of Q1, the company had a debt ratio of 34.3% and a liability ratio of 75.3%, both showing slight increases year-on-year [3] New Contracts - The new contract value in Q1 reached 553 billion, up 9.0% year-on-year, with significant contributions from infrastructure construction and overseas projects [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 24.6 billion, 25.9 billion, and 27.0 billion respectively, with target prices set at 12.11 RMB for A shares and 7.33 HKD for H shares [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Chinese economy, focusing on various sectors including real estate, infrastructure, consumer services, and the impact of external trade policies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and Risk Management**: The Political Bureau meeting emphasized the dual focus on stabilizing growth and managing risks, indicating a stronger policy response to economic challenges, particularly in service consumption and support for foreign trade enterprises [1][2][3]. 2. **Real Estate Strategy**: The meeting highlighted the importance of real estate, proposing a new development model that includes increasing the supply of high-quality housing and optimizing land acquisition policies to stabilize the market [1][19][20]. 3. **Infrastructure Investment**: Government investment is seen as a key driver, with a focus on major projects in economically advantageous regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area, as well as significant projects in western regions [1][28][29]. 4. **Service Consumption Growth**: There is a strong signal to boost income for low- and middle-income groups and develop service consumption, with expectations that service retail will account for over 40% of total retail sales by 2027 [1][37][41]. 5. **Impact of Tariffs on Textile and Apparel**: Chinese textile and apparel companies are adapting to U.S. tariff policies by relocating production to Southeast Asia, while maintaining competitiveness through price adjustments [1][42][44]. 6. **Cross-Border E-commerce**: The cross-border e-commerce market is thriving despite tariff challenges, with companies like Dunhuang.com performing well in the U.S. market [1][43]. 7. **AI and Technology in Retail**: The integration of AI technology is transforming the retail landscape, with major Chinese internet companies investing heavily in AI infrastructure and applications [1][50][51]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in Land Acquisition**: The government faces challenges in land acquisition policies, including pricing and funding issues, which may hinder the execution of real estate strategies [1][22][23]. 2. **Slow Progress in Urban Village Renovation**: Urban village renovation has been slow, with various obstacles such as funding models and compensation mechanisms affecting progress [1][24]. 3. **Consumer Behavior Trends**: New consumption trends are emerging, with a focus on personalized and unique experiences driving growth in sectors like beauty care and personal grooming [1][48][49]. 4. **Investment Opportunities in Infrastructure**: The emphasis on urban renewal and infrastructure investment presents significant opportunities for growth in the construction and related sectors [1][31][32]. 5. **Potential for High-Quality Housing**: The trend towards high-quality housing is gaining momentum, with local governments implementing new standards to enhance living conditions [1][21][25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and potential investment opportunities within various sectors.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the steel industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.70%, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and long products seeing gains of 2.45% and 3.33% respectively [3][11]. - As of April 25, 2025, the average daily pig iron production reached 2.4435 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 4.23% and a year-on-year increase of 18.13% [3][25]. - The report highlights a decrease in the consumption of five major steel products, with total consumption dropping to 9.263 million tons, a week-on-week decline of 22.39 thousand tons [3][34]. - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 10.834 million tons, down 41.40 thousand tons week-on-week, reflecting a 3.68% decline [3][41]. - The report notes an increase in the price index for ordinary steel, which rose to 3,477.1 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 19.44 CNY/ton [3][47]. Supply - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sample steel companies was 91.6%, up 1.45 percentage points week-on-week [3][25]. - Electric furnace capacity utilization was reported at 56.7%, an increase of 0.33 percentage points week-on-week [3][25]. - The total production of five major steel products reached 7.664 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.44 thousand tons [3][25]. Demand - The report indicates a decline in the consumption of five major steel products, with a total of 9.263 million tons consumed, down 2.36% week-on-week [3][34]. - The transaction volume for construction steel among mainstream traders was 121 thousand tons, which increased by 11.56% week-on-week [3][34]. - The report also mentions a decrease in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities, which fell to 149.4 million square meters, a week-on-week decline of 15.2 million square meters [3][34]. Inventory - Social inventory of five major steel products decreased to 10.834 million tons, down 3.68% week-on-week [3][41]. - Factory inventory for the same products was reported at 4.508 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.96% [3][41]. Prices - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel reached 3,477.1 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 12.90% [3][47]. - The comprehensive index for special steel was reported at 6,641.6 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.04% [3][47]. Profitability - The average profit for blast furnace steel production was reported at 98 CNY/ton, an increase of 25.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][56]. - The average profit for electric furnace steel production was reported at -357.04 CNY/ton, a decrease of 32.5 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][56]. - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies was reported at 57.58%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points week-on-week [3][56].