证 券 研 究 报 告 基准约束下，构建新红利增长组合 证券分析师：杨俊文 A0230522070001 邓虎 A0230520070003 研究支持： 杨俊文 A0230522070001 2025.06.24 一、基准约束下调整红利增长组合 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 5月7日，中国证监会发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》（以下简称"《行动方案》"），其中明确提出强化业 绩比较基准的约束作用，基金公司评价体系、公司高管的考核以及基金经理的考核都将与业绩比较基准密切相关。以基 金经理为例："对三年以上产品业绩低于业绩比较基准超过10个百分点的基金经理，要求其绩效薪酬应当明显下降；对 三年以上产品业绩显著超过业绩比较基准的基金经理，可以合理适度提高其绩效薪酬"。 ◼ 2016~2024年期间，原红利增长组合相对中证红利指数的年化跟踪误差为9.08%，新红利增长组合相对中证红利指数的 年化跟踪误差为5.82%。 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 3 二、新红利增长组合的构建 ◼ 顺着预测分红增长的逻辑，从两个维度来展开： ◼ 维度一：过去三年分红比例稳定 ...

截至6月23日，港股红利低波ETF(520550）年内创34次新高，获资金连续7周净流入，资金流入叠加净值上行，该标的年内规模增长169%，迭创 历史新高。 长江证券陈洁敏表示，今年港股红利资产走强，主要受益于风险偏好相对下调后的防御配置需求。随着成长股持续缩圈，这类防御性强、有稳健 绝对收益能力的资产成内外资共识。 保险资金有配置港股高股息资产的强需求，这与保险OCI账户的定位以及国内资产荒有关。在国内寻找较为稳健的高收益回报资产比较困难，因 此保险资金更倾向于配置港股的高股息资产。随着新会计准则调整过渡期结束，保险OCI账户配置和加仓红利资产的节奏和体量或有进一步提升 机会。 【港股分红总额1.38万亿，同比增13%，红利类资产分红持续增长】 据2024年年报，港股分红总额达1.38万亿，同比增速超10%，当前已有927家公司宣告分红，当前正在迎来分红高潮，7月将有91家公司即将分 红。 跟A股对比，港股平均股息率较高，在房地产、通讯、公用事业、金融等多个板块的股息率相较于A股都有明显优势，可通过南下资金捕捉到更 多优质的高股息标的。 A股市场和港股市场2023、2024年年度分红表现 | 市场 | 实际 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bitcoin market experienced significant volatility, with prices reaching a three-month high of $105,977.82, driven by macro liquidity expectations and technological advancements in decentralized exchanges, particularly XBIT's unique features [1][9]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price surged over 6% in the last four hours, with trading volume increasing significantly, indicating heightened market sentiment [1]. - The recent price movement followed a "breakout-pullback-rebound" pattern, with the closing price above the previous resistance level of $99,222, suggesting strong bullish momentum [2]. Technological Innovations - XBIT's decentralized exchange platform showcased a 230% increase in large transactions as Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark, without the liquidity crises often seen in traditional exchanges [4]. - The platform's dynamic liquidity pool mechanism ensures optimal transaction prices even during extreme market conditions [4]. - XBIT's three core advantages include military-grade security through zero-knowledge proof technology, cross-chain asset interoperability, and a user-friendly design that simplifies complex trading operations [4]. Trading Strategies - Despite bullish momentum, significant historical resistance exists around $105,371, which could pose a risk of short-term price corrections [6]. - Suggested trading strategies include aggressive buying at support levels and cautious shorting if prices face resistance at higher levels [6]. Decentralized Exchange Growth - The trading volume of decentralized exchanges (DEX) surpassed 35% for the first time, with XBIT emerging as a key player due to its innovative on-chain order book model [6]. - XBIT's "trade-to-mine" model has led to a 400% increase in its token value, creating a positive feedback loop for users [7]. Future Outlook - Long-term support for Bitcoin is expected from macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and potential ETF inflows, with a price target of $120,000 if resistance levels are broken [9]. - The emergence of advanced DEX platforms like XBIT is reshaping the cryptocurrency trading landscape, emphasizing the importance of security, transparency, and efficiency for investors [9].

分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 分析师：黄浩 登记编号：S0890524110001 投资要点 本周A股延续前期震荡态势，在国际地缘政治风险事件影响下，小幅回落，上证指数周内最低点接近3350，但 是回调幅度有限，整体依旧呈现一定的支撑力度。海外美股市场也有相近特征，在权益指数接近前期高位和地 缘政治影响等多重阻力作用下，呈现震荡小幅收跌态势。在全球环境不确定性增加的时间内，资金避险偏好增 加，叠加中长期资金对于优质红利风格板块的偏好，低波策略表现相对较强。但随着风险事件的释放与计价， 海内外权益市场短期调整后带来的是更高的性价比，结合当前伊以冲突局势缓和后权益市场的表现，前期持续 提示的境内权益市场逢低布局机会初获成效 。 量化策略配置观点： 股基增强策略 > 常青低波策略 > 海外权益策略 A股方面，近期，上证指数在3400点位置有所震荡，在遇到阻力的同时，部分优质红利板块提供较强支撑力。 五月份至六月中，不少科技成长板块均处于调整状态，市场对于过快消除关税冲击的担忧得到一定程度计价， 快速反弹而带来的风险有所消化，科技板块在经历调整后，有企稳回升迹象，因此我们对于A股的观点持相对 ...

晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 113 号 主 题：对近期重要经济金融新闻、行业事件、公司公告等进行点评 时 间：2025 年 6 月 24 日 8:50-9:30 会议形式：腾讯会议 参会人员：曹旭特 仇华 许雯 王攀 蒋栋 张德燕 轩鹏程 文正平 李杰 王文瑞 张智珑 郭怡萍 何超 李育文 李正威 别璐莎 邢维洁 王逸奇 孙菲 马丽明 贺钰偲 汪炜 聂孟依 顾华昊 整理记录：张德燕 固定资产方面，前个月累计增速由 4 月的 4.00%下滑至 3.70%，就基建投资、制造业投 资和房地产投资来看，累计同比增速均出现下滑。其中，基础设施建设投资累计同比10.42%， 虽然绝对值保持着 2 位数，但是自 3 月份累计增速达 11.50%后，持续回落二个月；制造业 累计同比增速 8.50%，也连续下滑了 2 个月；而房地产开发投资完成额前 5 个月累计同比- 10.70%，2025 年以来持续处于下滑状态，且下滑幅度已达 2021 年以来的最大值，显示房地 产行业 2025 年的投资状况总体并没有出现明显改善，还是维持在低位。 1.2、沪深股市 2025.06.16-2025.06.20 日，A 股指数震荡下行 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 24 日 湘财证券研究所 策略研究 策略月报 预期 7 月市场继续震荡上行，红利、科技或是主力 ——2025 年 7 月 A 股策略 核心要点： 相关研究： 2025 年以来 A 股主要指数宽幅震荡，万得全 A 略强 行，看好红利和下游方向》 究-预期5月政策面转强，关注红利 和消费》 2025.04.23 利、消费和科技共振》 2025.05.25 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 基本面，7 月份将公布上半年经济数据，但预期难有惊喜。据 Wind 数据， 工业增加值 5 月累计同比维持在 6%之上，工业企业利润总额同比转正，但 绝对值不大，预期工业企业利润总额同比上半年将继续保持在 0 轴附近，波 动幅度不大。 综合而言，7 月份处于中美贸易冲突缓和、国内宏观政策有望加码、而上市 公司业绩披露空窗期等因素共振状态，但预期会受海外美元降息推迟、中东 冲突升级等因素影响，市场大概率保持小幅震荡上行态势。 投资建议 长维度来看，目前 A 股市场处于新"国九条"行情+类"四万亿"投资的重 叠趋势中，在稳住股市的政策指导下，2025 年 A 股市场大概率 ...

Group 1: Global Economic and Political Landscape - The current period is marked by a restructuring of the global political and economic landscape, coinciding with China's economic transformation and upgrading [1] - The joint statement from the China-U.S. Geneva Economic and Trade Talks in May indicates a temporary easing of bilateral trade relations, but deep-seated strategic competition is expected to persist, particularly in high-tech sectors [1] - China's "dual circulation" development strategy is being accelerated to address external challenges and stimulate domestic demand [1] Group 2: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlook - A significant turning point is anticipated in the global macro policy environment in the second half of 2025, with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank [2] - China's fiscal policy will continue to play a crucial role in counter-cyclical adjustments, with plans for more robust fiscal measures, including increased special bond issuance and targeted support for housing and land reserves [3] - The People's Bank of China is expected to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential further reductions in reserve requirements and loan prime rates [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities and Market Dynamics - Structural investment opportunities in the second half of the year are expected to focus on technology, new consumption, stable dividend assets, and central government leverage [5] - The technology sector, particularly in areas like AI, semiconductors, and military applications, is highlighted as a key area for investment due to ongoing U.S.-China strategic competition [5] - The capital market is projected to exhibit resilience and vitality, with a focus on high-quality development and opportunities in autonomous innovation, consumption upgrades, and energy transition [6]

Market Overview and Key Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline last week, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.43% and the Hang Seng Technology Index falling by 2.03%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index decreased by 0.70% [1] - The information technology sector led the gains among Hang Seng's primary industries, while healthcare and energy sectors saw the largest declines [1] - There was a significant increase in passive foreign capital inflows, with a net inflow of $1.64 billion into Chinese stocks from foreign investors, compared to a net inflow of $0.03 billion the previous week [1] - Southbound capital also remained strong, with a net inflow of HKD 16.3 billion [1] Dividend Strategy and Outlook - The dividend yield of the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index reached 7.90%, significantly higher than the 5.56% yield of the CSI Dividend Index. The price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.62, and the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 6.79 [2] - Since the beginning of 2021, the total return of the full return index has been 114%, outperforming the Hang Seng full return index by 113% [2] - The low interest rate environment and weak economic recovery in China are favorable for dividend strategies, with state-owned enterprises showing strong willingness and capability for dividend distribution [2] ETF Performance - The Huaan Hong Kong Stock Connect Central State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (code: 513920) tracks the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index and aims to reflect the performance of high-dividend securities listed in Hong Kong with major shareholders being mainland state-owned enterprises [3] - The ETF is the first in the market to combine attributes of Hong Kong stocks, state-owned enterprises, and dividends [3] - The ETF had a scale of CNY 1.4856 billion and a weekly trading volume of CNY 1.012 billion [4] Top Holdings in the Dividend Index - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Dividend Index include: - China COSCO Shipping (4.7% weight, 12-month dividend yield of 13.0%) - Orient Overseas International (4.5% weight, 12-month dividend yield of 11.4%) - New China Life Insurance (3.6% weight, 12-month dividend yield of 3.9%) - China National Offshore Oil (2.8% weight, 12-month dividend yield of 7.8%) [5]

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced wide fluctuations since early 2025, but the banking sector has led the gains among 31 Shenwan primary industries, with a rise of 31% in the past six months, attracting significant capital inflow into dividend low-volatility indices [1] - The Dividend Low-Volatility ETF (512890) has seen a net inflow of 742 million yuan over four consecutive trading days since June 18, making it the only dividend-themed ETF to exceed 700 million yuan in net inflow during this period, with its fund size reaching a new high of 18.5 billion yuan on June 23 [1] - The Dividend Low-Volatility Index, which includes 50 stocks with good liquidity, continuous dividends, high dividend yields, and low volatility, has a banking sector weight of 49.16% as of June 23 [1] Group 2 - The State Council meeting on June 13 emphasized increasing macro policy adjustments, which is expected to alleviate concerns about the asset quality of banks, while new regulations from the banking regulatory authority on June 20 aim to enhance the operational resilience of banks [2] - The Dividend Low-Volatility Index reached a new high since its base date (December 30, 2005) on June 23, with an annualized return of 13.85%, making the Dividend Low-Volatility ETF (512890) an attractive option for risk-averse investors [2] - The connecting funds for the Dividend Low-Volatility ETF (512890) have attracted 829,800 holders as of the end of 2024, making it the only dividend-themed index fund with over 800,000 holders in the market [2] Group 3 - Huatai-PineBridge has launched a range of dividend-themed ETFs, including the first dividend ETF (510880) and the first QDII mode ETF for high-dividend Hong Kong stocks (513530), with the total management scale of its dividend-themed ETFs exceeding 41.3 billion yuan as of June 23 [3]

Market Overview - On June 23, 2025, the Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (Hua Xia, 589010) closed down 0.72%, with leading declines from Hengxuan Technology down 5.46%, Lanke Technology down 4.36%, and Stone Technology down 3.62% [1] - The Robotics ETF (562500) closed up 0.50%, with East杰智能 leading gains at 10.47%, Tianzhihang up 7.27%, and Kuaike Intelligent up 3.04% [1] - The trading volume for the day was 359 million yuan, making it the most active ETF in its category, indicating good liquidity [1] Key Developments - Huawei and Softcom Power are collaborating to develop humanoid robots for manufacturing scenarios, focusing on general humanoid applications and 3C manufacturing [2] - KPMG's 2025 China Banking Industry Survey Report indicates that the banking sector is leading in the application of large models, with significant efficiency improvements and innovations across various banking operations [2] - Galaxy General announced the completion of a new financing round of 1.1 billion yuan, marking the largest single financing in the field of embodied large model robots, with total financing exceeding 2.4 billion yuan over two years [2] Institutional Insights - China Galaxy Securities states that A-shares are currently at a historical average valuation, relatively low compared to mature overseas markets, suggesting high investment value [3] - The report anticipates a stable upward trend for A-shares in the second half of 2025, driven by policy support and capital inflows, while cautioning about external uncertainties and domestic economic recovery [3] - The focus on technology innovation is highlighted as a core driver for A-share supply-side reform, with recommendations to pay attention to AI computing, AI applications, embodied intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] ETF Highlights - The Robotics ETF (562500) is noted as the only ETF in the market with over 10 billion yuan in scale, offering the best liquidity and comprehensive coverage of the Chinese robotics industry [4] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Artificial Intelligence ETF (Hua Xia, 589010) is described as the "brain" of robotics, capturing the "singularity moment" in the AI industry with a 20% fluctuation range and small to mid-cap elasticity [4]