地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/13 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘多数上涨，能源化工品普遍上涨，苯乙烯涨 3.05%，丁二烯橡胶涨 2.69%，纸浆涨 2.38%，燃油涨 2.36%，PTA 涨 2.11%，20 号胶涨 1.91%。黑色系涨跌不一，铁矿石涨 1.77%，螺纹钢涨 1.28%，热卷涨 1.1%。农产品多数上涨，棉花涨 1.26%，豆二涨 1.02%，棉纱涨近 1%。基本金属 涨跌不一，沪锡涨 1.33%，沪铝涨 0.91%，沪镍跌 1.26%。沪金跌 2.52%，沪银 跌 0.75%。 2. 国际油价走强，美油主力合约收涨 1.54%，报 61.96 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 1.63%，报 64.95 美元/桶。分析师指出，OPEC+增产节奏加快及地 缘政治风险缓和共同推动油价上行，但需关注美国库存数据变化对供需平衡的 影响。 3. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 3.06%报 3241.80 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货跌 0.36%报 32.80 美 ...

日报 | 2025-05-13 中美关税会谈取得进展，甲醇价格回升 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤420元/吨（-10），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润790元/吨（+30）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2105元/吨（+10），内蒙北线基差435元/吨（-33），内蒙南线2100元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2348元/吨（-3）， 鲁南基差278元/吨（-46）；河南2300元/吨（+0），河南基差230元/吨（-43）；河北2250元/吨（-75），河北基差240 元/吨（-118）。隆众内地工厂库存303910吨（+20560），西北工厂库存192000吨（+21000）；隆众内地工厂待发订单 237780吨（-11850），西北工厂待发订单120000吨（+7200）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2422元/吨（+22），太仓基差152元/吨（-21），CFR中国264美元/吨（+1），华东进口价差61元/ 吨（+11），常州甲醇2455元/吨；广东甲醇2382元/吨（+17），广东基差112元/吨（-26）。隆众港口总库存561870吨 （+24470），江苏港口库存230000吨（-1 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 13 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 沪铜上涨，中美会谈取得实质性进展推动市场乐观情绪，盘后发布的联合公告显 示中美均将双方关税降至了可贸易范畴内，短期关税对双方经济的冲击担忧均下 降，利多风险资产。05 合约交割临近，在 05-06back 依旧维持在 300+情况下，现 货市场转为贴水报价，但若贴水扩大或将带动交割情绪上升，考虑到 5 月有累库 预期且日内公布的库存累库 0.3 万吨，预计本次交割能顺利完成，5 月国内产量 继续增加而需求放缓，预计盘面高 BACK 结构难持 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unexpected consensus on tariff reduction between China and the US in the Geneva economic and trade talks is expected to boost the short - term sentiment of the domestic A - share market and industrial products in commodities, especially those close to the export end. However, there is a possibility that the US may take further actions after a 90 - day period [7]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Reaction - After the A - share market closed yesterday, the three major US stock indexes recorded their largest daily gains in a month, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 5.40%. The US dollar index and the offshore RMB increased, while US Treasury bonds and gold declined [7]. 2. Sector - Specific Analysis PTA - The unilateral trend is oscillating strongly. With the unexpected tariff reduction, the view on the monthly spread is revised, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread should be exited. PTA is in a situation of decreasing supply and increasing demand, with continuous inventory reduction. It is recommended to short the PTA processing fee at high prices, and the unilateral price is strongly affected by oil prices and is generally oscillating strongly [9]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The unexpected good news of China - US tariffs drives the sentiment - based repair of the market. It is advisable to enter the 6 - 8 reverse spread and hold the 10 - 12 reverse spread lightly. The freight rate on the European line is not likely to increase significantly in late June, and there is an expectation of a peak season from July to August [10]. Styrene - Pure benzene is still in a weak trend, and in the short - term, it enters a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Styrene should be shorted at high prices, and the profit of styrene should be compressed. Attention should be paid to the downstream production cut and inventory accumulation in the second half of May and the process of the hidden inventory of styrene factories becoming explicit [13]. Cotton - Despite the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures due to the better - than - expected result of the China - US economic and trade talks, due to sufficient supply of old - crop cotton and expected increase in new - crop production, as well as the lack of short - term and long - term growth expectations for cotton demand, cotton futures lack a continuous upward driving force and are expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. 3. Individual Commodity Analysis Precious Metals - Gold: Affected by the progress in China - US trade, the trend intensity is - 1. - Silver: It is oscillating downwards, and the trend intensity is - 1 [20][24]. Base Metals - Copper: The strong spot price of LME copper supports the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [26]. - Aluminum: It is oscillating weakly, and the trend intensity is 0. Alumina is consolidating at a low level, and the trend intensity is 0 [29]. - Zinc: There is inventory accumulation in the fundamentals, and attention should be paid to tariff disturbances. The trend intensity is - 1 [32]. - Lead: It has weak supply and demand and is adjusting within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [35]. - Tin: It is oscillating within a narrow range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [38]. - Nickel: The news affects the sentiment, but the fundamentals change little. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel has a marginal increase in social inventory, and the disk is supported by cost expectations. The trend intensity is 0 [42]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: Although the tariff impact is mitigated, the export profit is still in the red. The trend intensity is 0 [47]. - Industrial Silicon: The disk is expected to open high and go low. The trend intensity is - 1. - Polysilicon: The news of production cuts is fermenting, and the disk is running strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [50]. Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: The expectations are fluctuating, and it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0 [54]. - Rebar: The macro - sentiment boosts it, and it rebounds from a low level. The trend intensity is 1. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The macro - sentiment boosts it, and it rebounds from a low level. The trend intensity is 1 [58]. - Ferrosilicon: The main production areas have announced maintenance plans, and it is oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1. - Silicomanganese: The port quotation has a strong willingness to increase, and it is oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [61]. - Coke: The sentiment is being repaired, and it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0. - Coking Coal: The sentiment is being repaired, and it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0 [66]. - Steam Coal: The coal mine inventory is increasing, and it is oscillating weakly. The trend intensity is 0 [71]. Others - Logs: Boosted by macro - expectations, it is oscillating repeatedly [74].

此外，多家研究机构和媒体也做了相关测算，本届美国政府累计对华新增关税税率将降至30%，中国方 面也将对美新增关税税率从125%下降到了10%。 中美双方是否会就关税等问题作进一步磋商？商务部新闻发言人表示，双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋商 机制，就经贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通，开展进一步磋商。中方代表是国务院副总理何立峰，美方代 表是财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔。双方将定期或不定期轮流在中国、美国开展磋商，或在商定的 第三国开展磋商。根据需要，双方可就相关经贸议题开展工作层面磋商。 （文章来源：南方都市报） 南都讯记者杨文君发自北京 北京时间5月12日下午3时，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》正式公布， 中美双方承诺于5月14日前采取举措，同步调整关税税率。 根据联合声明，美方承诺取消根据2025年4月8日第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对中 国商品加征的共计91%的关税，修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令对中国商品加征的34%的对等关 税，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天，保留剩余10%的关税。相应地，中方取消对美国商品加征的共计 91%的反制关税；针对美对等关税的34%反制关 ...

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 12, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel opened at 124,150 yuan/ton and closed at 126,130 yuan/ton, a 2.00% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 235,469 lots, and the open interest was 67,717 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel jumped higher in the night session on Friday, then oscillated in a range after surging to near the previous high. On Monday, it rose in the morning session, faced resistance, and then oscillated downward, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly [2]. - The news of the Philippine nickel ore export ban on Friday afternoon affected market sentiment. Although the bill will take effect five years after being signed into law, it has no substantial impact in the near term. The shortage of nickel ore supply persists. The domestic trade premium for nickel ore in May (Phase II) is expected to remain at +26 - 27, and the domestic trade base price has increased by $0.65 - 1, with the overall price rising slightly and the ore - end price remaining firm [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel rose by about 2,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands in the market were correspondingly adjusted. The nickel price rebounded significantly during the day, and downstream buyers showed strong hesitation due to high prices. The overall spot trading volume of refined nickel was average, and most spot premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 2,150 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 23,222 (-204.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 197,754 (84) tons [2]. Strategy - Affected by the news of the Philippine nickel ore export ban and the tariff adjustment on Monday, the nickel price rebounded significantly. However, the overall supply of nickel elements is in excess, and there is significant upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range [3]. - Inter - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 12, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,765 yuan/ton and closed at 12,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 116,932 lots, and the open interest was 116,190 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated and rose in the night session on Friday and continued to rise in the day session on Monday, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [4]. - On May 12, the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" was released. The US promised to cancel the 91% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods under Executive Order No. 14259 on April 8, 2025, and Executive Order No. 14266 on April 9, 2025, and modify the 34% reciprocal tariffs imposed on Chinese goods under Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. Among them, 24% of the tariffs will be suspended for 90 days, and the remaining 10% will be retained. This tariff adjustment has no impact on stainless steel and all stainless - steel products, mainly affecting some downstream products that use stainless steel [4]. - The US imposes a 45% import tariff on stainless steel products (excluding pipes, flanges, and pipe fittings) and tableware and kitchenware imported from China, a 70% import tariff on stainless - steel sinks and washbasins, machine endless belts, other woven fabrics, pipes, flanges, and pipe fittings, and a minimum 30% import tariff on other products (partially using stainless steel) before July 2025 [5]. - The shortage of nickel ore supply persists. The domestic trade premium for nickel ore in May (Phase II) is expected to remain at +26 - 27, and the domestic trade base price has increased by $0.65 - 1, with the overall price rising slightly and the ore - end price remaining firm. In the spot market, the stainless - steel market was strong, market confidence recovered, and the price was raised several times. Some traders had low inventories, and some merchants increased their replenishment efforts due to bullish expectations, resulting in active market trading. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,125 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 350 - 500 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 942.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. Strategy - Affected by the Philippine nickel ore export ban and the tariff adjustment on Monday, the stainless - steel price rebounded significantly. However, the overall supply of stainless steel is in excess, and there is significant upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. - Unilateral: Neutral [6]. - Inter - period: None [6]. - Cross - variety: None [6]. - Spot - futures: None [6]. - Options: None [6].

从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 有色金属日报 2025-5-13 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 中美贸易谈判取得进展，关税大幅降低，权益市场走强，贵金属走弱，铜价冲高后有所回落，昨日伦 铜收涨 0.67%至 9502 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 77820 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 10253 至 190750 吨，注销仓单比例下滑至 43.1%，Cash/3M 升水 23.9 美元/吨。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年05月13日星期二 | 作者： | 段智栈 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03140418 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0021604 | | 联系方式： | 18810293832 | 期货研究院 黑色系焦煤焦炭日度策略 摘要 【重要资讯】 黑色建材团队 1.当地时间5月12日上午9:00，双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联 合声明》：美国对中国商品征收关税降低至30%，中国对美国商品 征收关税降低至10%。 2.日本首相石破茂表示，日本不会与美国达成一项不包括汽车关税 的初步贸易协定。石破茂还表示，增加从美国进口玉米将是与美国 进行贸易谈判的选项之一。 当天，石破茂表示，日本政府已准备好采取额外刺激措施，来缓解 关税对经济的影响。不过，石破茂对削减日本消费税税率表示谨慎 。 3.5月11日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台Truth Social上发文称 ，"虽然没有进行讨论，但我将大幅增加与印度和巴基斯坦的贸易 往来"。 4.中汽协：今年1至4月份，我国汽车产销量分别完成1017.5万辆和 1006万辆，同比分别增 ...

5/12 以色列代表团将前往多哈进行停火谈判。以色列总理办公室12日发表声明说，以代表团将于13日前往卡塔尔首都多哈，同 巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）就加沙地带停火协议进行间接谈判。声明说，以总理内塔尼亚胡当天同到访的美国中东问题 特使史蒂文·威特科夫和美国驻以大使迈克·赫卡比举行会谈，强调谈判将"只会在炮火下"进行。另据以色列媒体12日报道，哈 马斯当天在加沙地带南部的汗尤尼斯释放了具有美国和以色列双重国籍的被扣押人员艾丹·亚历山大。 注:XSI-C指数延迟三个工作日公布, EC期货合约价格走势 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 EC远期曲线 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 -652 60 500 2510 75 2025/4/23 2025/5/12 2025/3/17 2025/4/7 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/5/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导航 | ...

5月13日，A股三大指数集体高开，沪指高开0.50%，深成指高开0.98%，创业板指高开1.29%，超4700家 公司上涨。 消费电子、港口航运等板块指数涨幅居前。成分股中，宁波海运（600798.SH）涨停，国航远洋 （833171）涨超9%，宁波远洋（601022.SH）、中远海控（601919.SH）、连云港（601008.SH）纷纷高 开。此前集运指数（欧线）主力合约日内涨超10%。 粤开证券则表示，从长期看，A股、港股将从集中定价关税冲突的阶段，逐步转向定价经济基本面的阶 段，外部冲击逐步减弱、科技叙事持续演绎加上国内政策持续发力，将会加速经济复苏进程，进而带动 A股、港股长期上涨。 消息面上，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》于昨日盘后发布，市场普遍认为关税的下降幅度和节奏明 显超市场预期。 景顺长城投研团队分析称，本次中美谈判的关税下调幅度大超市场预期，背后原因可能包括美国供应链 对中国的依赖，以及我国综合国力的提升。 市场风险偏好将提升 多家机构均认为会谈结果将提振市场短期风险偏好。中国银河宏观团队分析称，中美贸易谈判出现实质 性进展将显著提升市场对中国资产的风险偏好，关税的大幅下调也对中国经济基 ...