投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色及新能源周报】 美联储会议基调偏鹰，有色板块高位震荡 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-6-23 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to perform well in the long term despite a recent pullback, with a recommendation to overweight this sector [5] - Copper prices are expected to remain strong, with a support level around 9,350 USD per ton, influenced by macroeconomic factors and trade dynamics [6] - Aluminum prices are anticipated to trend upward, supported by easing trade tensions and a decrease in inventory levels [6] - Rare earth prices are projected to rise following a significant drop in export volumes, with expectations of increased demand due to recent diplomatic agreements [7] - Uranium prices have seen a significant increase, with expectations for a new upward trend in the second half of the year [8] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4,846.95, with a weekly high of 5,047.03 and a low of 3,700.9 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals saw price changes: Copper up 0.13%, Aluminum up 2.34%, Zinc up 0.86%, Lead up 0.13%, and Tin down 0.27% [20] - Precious metals experienced declines: Gold down 1.98%, Silver down 1.15%, while Platinum and Palladium saw increases of 4.08% and 1.69% respectively [20] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventories showed a decrease in Copper by 12,511 tons, Aluminum by 5,439 tons, and Zinc by 5,004 tons, while Lead saw an increase of 18,731 tons [34]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **financial markets**, including **U.S. stocks**, **A-shares**, **H-shares**, **gold**, **bonds**, and the **semiconductor industry**. Additionally, geopolitical factors, particularly the **Middle East situation** and **U.S. Federal Reserve policies**, are significant themes. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Federal Reserve's Policy Impact** The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June but revised upward its unemployment and PCE forecasts for 2025 and 2026, while downgrading economic data, raising concerns about stagflation in the market [2][3][4] 2. **Middle East Geopolitical Tensions** The U.S. has conducted strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, marking the onset of a nuclear conflict phase. However, the situation is expected to remain controlled, with a low probability of extreme events occurring [2][5] 3. **Gold Market Dynamics** Despite a 1.8% decline in gold prices recently, the long-term outlook remains positive, suggesting a strategy of dollar-cost averaging for investment [7][17] 4. **A-shares and H-shares Market Performance** Both markets are experiencing adjustments, influenced by external events and concerns over earnings reports. Defensive strategies focusing on AI, military, and stable industries are recommended [6][8][9][18] 5. **Bond Market Trends** Bond yields have slightly decreased, with expectations of liquidity tightening in the coming weeks. A recommendation to reduce positions and focus on short-term bonds is advised [11][12] 6. **Semiconductor Industry Growth** The PCB industry is expected to benefit from increased demand for North American ASIC chips, with projections indicating a market size of approximately $3 billion in 2025 and over $5-6 billion in 2026 [3][23] 7. **Investment Strategies in Current Economic Environment** The overall market sentiment is cautious due to various uncertainties, with a focus on defensive strategies and identifying sectors with potential growth, such as AI and military-related industries [13][14][18] 8. **Market Liquidity Expectations** The next two weeks are anticipated to be the peak of liquidity in the financial market, after which a marginal tightening is expected, impacting both long-term bonds and equities [12] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Short-term vs Long-term Investment in Gold** The gold market should be analyzed from both a long-term investment perspective and a short-term trading strategy, with the latter suggesting potential reductions in holdings [17] 2. **Impact of External Factors on A-shares and H-shares** The performance of A-shares and H-shares is significantly influenced by external factors, including foreign capital movements and geopolitical tensions, which may lead to adjustments in investment strategies [15][18] 3. **Emerging Opportunities in the PCB Sector** The PCB sector is poised for growth driven by ASIC chip demand, with specific companies like Huadian and Shengyi Technology highlighted as potential investment opportunities [23][25] 4. **Defensive Investment Recommendations** In light of current market conditions, investments in defensive sectors such as banking and public utilities are recommended, alongside monitoring for opportunities in AI and military sectors [8][9][18] 5. **Trends in the White Wine Sector** The white wine sector is experiencing a rebound due to changes in consumption regulations and low valuations, indicating potential for growth [29][31] 6. **Short Drama Market Development** The short drama market is evolving under new regulations, with a focus on quality content production, which may benefit companies involved in this sector [26][27] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations derived from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and strategic considerations.

Geopolitical Risks and Market Resilience - The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict has not significantly impacted the market, but recent U.S. military actions may change this situation [2] - The S&P 500 index has remained relatively stable since the conflict began, with a slight increase in oil prices by approximately 10% since June 13 [2] - A warning has been issued regarding the potential economic impact if oil prices rise significantly, with a critical threshold identified at $120 per barrel [2] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Discussions - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting concluded with no change in interest rates, maintaining a forecast of a 50 basis point cut by the end of 2025 [5] - There is a growing concern about "stagflation," where economic growth slows while inflation remains above the 2% target [5] - Disagreements among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts and inflation trends are expected to influence future policy decisions [5] Inflation Data Outlook - The upcoming release of the May core PCE price index is anticipated to show an annual increase from 2.5% in April to 2.6%, with a monthly rate expected to remain at 0.1% [9] - Analysts suggest that while this data may be positive for the Fed, uncertainties surrounding tariff policies could complicate the inflation outlook [9] S&P 500 Index Performance - The S&P 500 index has been hovering near historical highs but has not yet surpassed the record closing of 6144.15 points set on February 19 [12] - Historical analysis indicates that after significant declines, the S&P 500 typically takes over three months to reach new highs after coming within 5% of previous peaks [12]

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 22 日 [Table_Title] 地缘冲突的涟漪 [Table_Title2] 类权益周报 [Table_Summary] ► 行情回顾：地缘冲突的涟漪 6 月 9-13 日，权益市场高位回落。截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日， 万得全 A 收盘价为 5087.26，较 6 月 13 日下跌 1.07%。 小微盘行情显著承压，是本周市场较为关键的边际变化，这 或是在主动调和积累已久的结构性矛盾。5 月底中证 2000 拥 挤度达到历史高位，这对小微盘行情的支撑逻辑提出了更高 的要求。而地缘冲突的加剧则给了市场主动释放风险的窗 口，中证 2000 加速下跌。 ► 海外线索：以伊冲突延续，美联储继续暂停降息 本周以伊冲突延续，未见缓和迹象。同时，美联储继续暂停 降息，表态略偏鹰，预测偏向"滞胀"，推动美元走强。此 外，美国核心零售韧性仍存，汽车零售大幅放缓。日本方 面，日本央行维持利率不变，明年起削减购债规模。 整体来看，海外"乱纪元"的叙事并未改变，继关税之后， 中东地缘冲突爆发，美国搅入其中，进一步推升不确定性。 此外，距离 ...

Group 1 - The market risk appetite remains challenged due to various uncertainties, with significant net outflows from US equity funds reaching a new high since March [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains its cautious stance, keeping the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% while adjusting economic forecasts, indicating uncertainty in growth and inflation [2][3] - The retail sales data showed a 0.9% month-on-month decline in May, which was below expectations, while core retail sales increased by 0.4%, reflecting steady economic momentum [2] Group 2 - The US stock market experienced a narrow range of movements, with the healthcare sector declining by 2.7% and the energy sector rising by 1.1% due to recovering oil prices [5] - There was a significant outflow of $18.43 billion from US equities, the highest since March, driven by geopolitical factors and uncertainties surrounding US tariffs [6] - Market sentiment has shifted to a wait-and-see approach, with the bullish momentum turning into sideways consolidation, although the probability of a significant market drop remains low unless geopolitical tensions escalate [7]

Economic Indicators - The Conference Board reported that the Leading Economic Index (LEI) in the U.S. has declined for six consecutive months, with a 0.1% decrease in May, reaching 99.0 points, following a downward revision of a 1.4% drop in April [1][3] - The decline in LEI is attributed to multiple negative factors, including low consumer confidence, weak new orders, an increase in initial jobless claims, and a reduction in building permits [3][5] Market Reactions - Despite a temporary rebound in the stock market due to tariff rollbacks by Trump, the underlying weakness in the real economy remains evident, indicating that the stock market's performance is misleading [3][5] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly up while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell, reflecting investor uncertainty about future economic conditions [7] Economic Outlook - The Conference Board predicts a significant slowdown in U.S. GDP growth to 1.6% by 2025, warning that ongoing tariff policies could exert further downward pressure by 2026 [3][5] - The current economic indicators suggest a systemic weakening of economic momentum rather than a short-term adjustment, with manufacturing orders declining and labor market loosening indicating a cautious outlook from businesses [5] Global Implications - The deterioration of U.S. economic indicators may signal the onset of a new wave of global turmoil, affecting emerging markets through capital outflows, currency pressures, and financial market volatility [8] - The interconnectedness of global supply chains means that demand weakness and rising financing costs will also impact manufacturing across the Eurasian continent [8]

Group 1: Key Insights - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate since May, highlighting its movement between strong and weak exchange guarantees, and the underlying causes and potential market impacts [7][8]. - It addresses the recent pause in local government subsidies, examining the changes in the "old for new" mechanism compared to 2024 and the rapid usage of subsidies in certain regions, as well as the effectiveness of the policy [9][8]. - The article analyzes the rebound in M1 growth as of May, suggesting that subsequent policy financial tools may stabilize and strengthen credit performance [12]. - It explores the divergence between consumption and production, attributing it to differences in holiday distribution, e-commerce promotions, and declines in exports and investments [16]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is noted as a factor driving up oil and gold prices [18]. - The article outlines the recent policy initiatives in Shenzhen aimed at deepening reform and innovation, including enhancing collaboration between industry and academia, improving financial services for the real economy, and promoting talent acquisition [22]. Group 2: Economic Data and Trends - The article presents a detailed analysis of M2 and M1 year-on-year growth rates, indicating trends in monetary supply [14]. - It includes charts depicting the year-on-year growth of social retail sales, breaking down contributions from various sectors [16]. - The article mentions the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcomes, including the decision to maintain the federal funds rate and adjustments to economic and inflation forecasts [25].

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate since May, highlighting its movement between strong and weak exchange guarantees and the underlying causes and potential market impacts [7][8]. - It addresses the recent pause in local government subsidies, examining the changes in the "old for new" mechanism compared to 2024 and the rapid usage of subsidies in certain regions [9][8]. - The article analyzes the rebound in M1 growth as of May, attributing it to the introduction of new policy financial tools and the expectation of stable credit performance [12][12]. - It explores the divergence between consumption and production, citing factors such as holiday distribution, e-commerce promotions, and declines in exports and investments [16][16]. - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is noted as a driver for rising gold and oil prices, indicating external influences on domestic markets [18][18]. Group 2 - The article outlines the recent policy initiatives in Shenzhen aimed at deepening reform and innovation, including enhancing collaboration between industry and academia, improving financial services for the real economy, and promoting talent acquisition [22][22]. - It highlights the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25-4.50%, along with adjustments to economic and inflation forecasts, suggesting a potential for interest rate cuts in the future [25][25]. - The macroeconomic outlook is discussed, with a focus on the potential for "stagflation" and the implications for future economic policies and market conditions [26][26].

欧美股市全线上涨。 6月20日，美股三大股指全线高开，截至发稿，道指上涨0.51%，标普500指数上涨0.59%，纳指上涨0.75%。 欧洲三大股指亦全线上涨，截至发稿，英国富时100指数上涨0.12%，法国CAC40指数上涨0.96%，德国DAX指数上涨1.55%。 盘面上，大型科技股普涨，截至发稿，特斯拉涨超2%，苹果涨超1%，亚马逊涨1%，微软、英伟达、谷歌A、Meta等小幅上涨；博通小幅下跌。 据了解，6月20日下午，上海市临港新片区管委会、上海市奉贤区人民政府、中国康富国际租赁股份有限公司、特斯拉（上海）有限公司围绕构网型零碳 能源国际合作示范中心项目举办签约仪式。本次项目签约标志着总投资40亿元的吉瓦时级电网侧独立储能电站及配套重大项目正式落户临港。 鲍威尔指出："今年关税上升可能会推高物价，并对经济活动构成压力。"如果美联储陷入所谓两难境地，即实现充分就业和价格稳定这两大目标之间出现 矛盾，那么就需要权衡每个目标偏离理想水平的程度，以及实现目标所需的时间。 热门中概股涨跌互现，富途控股跌超3%，京东、哔哩哔哩跌超1%，小鹏汽车、理想汽车、微博、百度等小幅下跌；唯品会、网易、阿里巴巴、爱奇艺、 蔚 ...