Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change [2][4] - The Fed's statement indicated a reduction in uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, while still acknowledging that risks remain high [5][6] - The median forecast for interest rates remains unchanged, with expectations for two rate cuts of 25 basis points this year, although the number of officials predicting no cuts has increased [11][16] - The Fed has lowered its GDP growth forecasts for the next two years, projecting a slowdown to 1.4% for this year, while raising unemployment and PCE inflation expectations [17][19][20] Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement reiterated that net export fluctuations have impacted data, but economic activity continues to expand steadily [7][8] - The Fed will continue to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, with a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [7][8] Interest Rate Projections - The updated dot plot shows a more hawkish stance, with an increase in the number of officials expecting no rate cuts this year [16] - The median projections for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.9%, 3.6%, and 3.4% respectively, indicating a lower expected rate of cuts compared to previous forecasts [11][12][13] Inflation and Unemployment Expectations - The Fed has raised its PCE inflation forecast for this year to 3.0%, significantly above the recently reported level of 2.1% [20][22] - Unemployment rate expectations have been adjusted upward, with projections of 4.5% for 2025, compared to previous estimates [19][22]

Group 1 - US stock market closed mixed, with investors focusing on Federal Reserve policies and Middle East tensions. The Fed maintained interest rates but hinted at two rate cuts this year, while also reducing future rate cut expectations. Economic forecasts indicate increasing stagflation pressures, with GDP growth downgraded and inflation rates raised [2] - According to UBS's "2025 Global Wealth Report," the US is expected to add 379,000 millionaires in 2024, accounting for nearly 40% of the global total. The Americas saw a private wealth net worth growth of 11%. The Greater China region ranks first globally with 28.2% of the middle class having net assets between $100,000 and $1 million [2] - Guangzhou has implemented significant measures to stimulate the housing market by canceling "three limits" and lowering down payment ratios and interest rates. The city has been heavily reliant on land finance, and current pressures on local fiscal balance necessitate these actions [2] Group 2 - At the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, the People's Bank of China announced eight major financial opening measures, including the establishment of an interbank market trading report database and a digital RMB international operation center [3] - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced a set of "1+6" policy measures to deepen the reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, including the introduction of a third set of standards for the Growth Enterprise Market and support for unprofitable companies to go public [3] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a resurgence, driven by a 53% price increase in DDR4 memory in May, the largest since 2017, and advancements in integrated chip technology from the Shanghai Institute of Optics and Fine Mechanics [3] Group 3 - NIO reported an expanded net loss attributable to shareholders and a rising debt-to-asset ratio in Q1, prompting concerns about its financial health. The company is undergoing self-transformation and management adjustments while planning to launch nine new models by 2025, although profitability remains a challenge [5] - The market price of Moutai has declined significantly since mid-May, with trading prices approaching 2,000 yuan. This decline is attributed to economic downturns, policy factors, and changing consumer preferences among younger generations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintains a patient approach while observing the potential impacts of tariffs under President Trump's policies, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5% [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Predictions - The Federal Reserve has not adjusted interest rates for six months, indicating a cautious stance as it monitors inflation and economic activity [1] - The Fed predicts that the personal consumption expenditure index, its preferred inflation measure, will rise from 2.1% to 3% by the end of 2025, reflecting increased inflation expectations [1] - The Fed forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, with additional cuts in 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 2: Economic Implications of Tariffs - Fed Chair Jerome Powell warns that tariffs could raise prices and pressure economic activity, with the impact depending on the final tariff levels [1][2] - Recent months have seen a restrained stance from the Fed, which has drawn sharp criticism from Trump, who has urged for lower interest rates [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has contributed to a slowdown in hiring, although the job market remains robust [6] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Growth Concerns - Powell has cautioned about the risk of "stagflation," where rising inflation coincides with economic slowdown, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [8][9] - If the Fed raises rates to combat tariff-induced inflation, it risks stifling borrowing and further slowing the economy [9] - Conversely, lowering rates to stimulate the economy could exacerbate inflation [10] Group 4: Recent Developments in Tariff Policies - Trump has recently rolled back some of his most severe tariffs, easing costs for importers, which may mitigate price increases [11] - Despite some tariff reductions, a 10% comprehensive tariff remains on most imports, with certain tariffs still in effect for steel, aluminum, and automobiles [14] - Retailers like Walmart and Best Buy have warned of potential price increases due to tariffs, with the OECD projecting U.S. inflation could reach 4% by the end of 2025 [15]

新华财经北京6月19日电（王菁）今年的美联储货币政策路径，"等待"或是关键词。美联储对宽松举措 保持高度谨慎态度，连续四次延迟降息虽有助于在复杂局面中寻找平衡，却不得不以牺牲美国经济活力 为代价。半年关将至，以观测经济数据和通胀走势为"借口"的拖延不会一直继续，留给美联储观望的时 间窗口也正在收窄。 当地时间6月18日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。这是自今年1 月、3月和5月会议以来，美联储连续第四次决定维持利率不变。同时，点阵图显示年内保持两次降息预 期，经济展望显示美联储上调年内通胀预测、下调经济总量预测。 市场人士表示，系列决策看似波澜不惊，却暗含当前美国经济在通胀韧性、政治压力与增长隐忧之间的 复杂博弈。 为何"迟迟不动"？美联储面临哪些"纠结"？ 从总量上看，美联储的"按兵不动"反映了对经济前景的担忧。数据显示，美国2025年一季度国内生产总 值（GDP）环比按年率计算下滑0.3%，幅度超过预期，为2022年二季度以来首次收缩。虽然美国GDP 受进口激增扰动出现萎缩，但美联储参考的另一项指标——对美国国内私人购买者的最终销售额一季度 增长了3%，这令政策决定 ...

Group 1 - Economists suggest that rising unemployment may trigger the Federal Reserve to restart interest rate cuts, as the Fed has maintained the benchmark loan rate around 4.4% since January [1] - The Fed is expected to continue its "wait and see" strategy amid renewed tensions in the Middle East, with officials anticipating that Trump's tariff policies will impact consumer spending and corporate profits, potentially leading to higher unemployment [1] - The latest economic forecasts from Fed policymakers may indicate at least one interest rate cut this year, primarily due to negative economic news, with expectations of a downturn in the labor market [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns about stagflation are rising, with economists predicting that the U.S. economy is moving towards a situation where stagnation and inflation coexist, although stagflation has not fully manifested yet [2] - The Fed faces a dilemma as it must balance its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, with increasing signs of strain in the labor market, such as reduced job vacancies and rising unemployment claims [2] - Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates more quickly, arguing that the Fed is lagging behind its European counterparts and that rate cuts could alleviate the federal government's interest payments on a growing budget deficit [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting the formation of a bearish flag pattern and the resistance levels around 3395-3401, which have not been breached despite multiple attempts [2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The current market dynamics suggest that if the price closes below the mid-Bollinger band around 3347, it indicates a continued hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to further downward movement and a shift towards safe-haven assets [3][4]. - Conversely, if the price closes above this level, it may signal the end of the current adjustment phase, with market participants betting on interest rate cuts and the implications of rising inflation and economic slowdown in the U.S. [3][4]. Group 2: Interest Rate Predictions - The dot plot from March indicates the possibility of two interest rate cuts in 2025, but there is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's future decisions, which could lead to a more hawkish outlook if officials change their stance [4]. - The probabilities for various interest rate ranges show a significant likelihood of maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% in the near term, with a gradual shift expected towards lower rates by mid-2025 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to focus on a potentially "hawkish" dot plot, which may reshape investor expectations regarding interest rate cuts in 2025 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, with a consensus among economists supporting this view [2][3]. Dot Plot Expectations - The dot plot is expected to show a significant adjustment, with a shift from two rate cuts in 2025 to possibly only one, reflecting a stronger hawkish sentiment among analysts [3][5][6]. - Bank of America predicts a 25 basis point increase in the median of the dot plot, indicating only one rate cut this year, while also suggesting a potential 75 basis point cut in 2026 [6]. Economic Projections - The economic projections (SEP) are likely to reflect a "stagflation" scenario, with upward revisions to inflation forecasts and downward adjustments to growth and unemployment rates [4][9]. - GDP growth is expected to be revised down from 1.7% to 1.4%, while the unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly to 4.5% [10][13]. Inflation Forecasts - Core PCE inflation forecasts are set to be significantly raised, with estimates from various institutions indicating an increase from 2.8% to around 3.2%-3.3% for 2025 [11][12]. - Despite the upward revision in inflation forecasts, many analysts believe the Fed will view tariff-related inflation as a "one-time" shock, allowing for future policy adjustments [14]. Tariff Impact - The effective tariff rate is expected to rise by 14 percentage points, which could negatively impact consumer spending and business investment, leading to a reduction in GDP growth by nearly 1 percentage point [15][16]. Market Reactions - The dollar's response to a potentially hawkish Fed may be complex, as structural selling pressures could limit any significant rebound despite hawkish signals [20][21][22].

摘要周三(6月18日)国际黄金开盘先行延续隔夜尾盘回升之力表现走强，但由于受到短线阻力压制，而 早盘反弹动力有限，截至发稿金价报3377.30美元/盎司，跌幅0.30%，最高上探3395.62美元/盎司，最低 触及3378.89美元/盎司。 分析人士指出，特朗普的关税政策可能推高进口商品价格，从而加剧通胀压力；与此同时，高关税也可 能削弱美国出口竞争力，导致经济增长放缓。美联储需要在控制通胀与支持经济增长之间寻找平衡，而 货币政策的路径——无论是降息还是维持当前利率水平——将取决于滞胀风险的严重程度。 【黄金走势分析】 黄金周二处于区间震荡，当天最高3403，最低3366，日线收十字星于3388，从日线看金价呈大区间震 荡，下方3350下破方进一步下跌，四小时线，呈区间震荡，现处于中轨下方，短线有回调，下方先看 3360，小时线，区间窄幅震荡待突破，综述日内短时内先看区间突破情况，关注消息面影响。 周三(6月18日)国际黄金开盘先行延续隔夜尾盘回升之力表现走强，但由于受到短线阻力压制，而早盘 反弹动力有限，截至发稿金价报3377.30美元/盎司，跌幅0.30%，最高上探3395.62美元/盎司，最低触及 33 ...

Group 1 - The persistent rise in oil prices may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a more dovish stance, as it could weaken demand and impact the resilient labor market [1] - Historically, sudden spikes in oil prices have only temporarily increased inflation, and the Fed typically overlooks this; however, the current economic slowdown makes the threat to growth and employment more significant than the temporary inflation boost [1] - The market may take weeks to gain clarity on oil price trends, with baseline predictions suggesting the Fed may initiate rate cuts in December [1] Group 2 - Analysts warn that prolonged conflicts and potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices to $130 per barrel, potentially driving U.S. inflation back to around 6% [2] - Rising gasoline prices, which have been a key factor in the recent cooling of inflation, could reverse trends, leading to a delay in the Fed's first rate cut until early 2026 [2] - Higher energy costs may trigger a chain reaction in supply chains, causing prices of other goods and services to rise, potentially resulting in a stagflation scenario [2]

研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-17 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 5026.6 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5047.03 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 近期研究报告 《中广核矿业（HK1164）签订新销售 框架协议，充分受益铀价上行》 - 2025.06.10 有色金属行业报告 （2025. ...