以下文章来源于日经中文网 ，作者日经中文网 日经中文网 . 编制日经指数的《日本经济新闻》的中文版。提供日本、中国、欧美财经金融信息、商务、企业、高科技报道、评论和专栏。 4月中国对东盟出口额按美元计算同比增长21%。一方面，对美国的出口下降21%。对美国出货量下降的中国造个人电脑和智能手机流入东 南亚。美国总统特朗普的高关税政策是背后原因…… 来源｜ 日经中文网（ID：rijingzhongwenwang） 美国总统特朗普的高关税政策是背后原因。美国针对世界各国征收的对等关税已将加征部分的生效暂缓了90天。在越南，利用这 一过渡期提前向美国供货的动向加强，4月对美出口同比增长3成以上。 封面来源 ｜ IC Photo 受特朗普关税的影响，东南亚的来自中国的进口正在扩大。4月对美国出货量下降的中国造个人电脑和智能手机流入东南亚。由于 美国对等关税部分暂缓实施，东南亚出现紧急增加对美出口的动向，与此同时，来自中国的零部件采购也在增加。 中国海关总署的数据显示，4月中国对东盟（ASEAN）出口按美元计算同比增长21%。增幅高于3月的12%。针对4月将对华加征 关税提高至145%的美国，中国方面的出口下降21%，而 ...

Market Outlook - The company remains optimistic about the A-share market, considering it a very good buying point and the best investment opportunity in decades [1][11][12] - The prediction includes a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could lead to capital inflows into emerging markets, including A-shares [2][11] Investment Strategy - The company plans to focus on stable high-dividend sectors such as food and beverage, and public utilities, which have dividend yields around 4% [2] - The investment strategy emphasizes acquiring valuable assets with stable profitability and dividend rates [2] Tariff Implications - The introduction of reciprocal tariffs by the U.S. is seen as having a neutral impact on the A-share market, with potential long-term benefits for China's economy by addressing overcapacity [3] AI and Robotics - The company acknowledges the potential of AI and robotics but refrains from investing due to difficulties in identifying suitable companies within this sector [4] Buffett's Cash Holdings - The company interprets Warren Buffett's significant cash reserves and reduction in U.S. stock holdings as a risk management strategy, considering the long bull market since 2008 [7] Gold Investment - The company does not view gold as a valuable investment, citing its historical price fluctuations and the current trend of widespread investment in gold [8] Japanese Market Insights - The company is monitoring the Japanese market, noting the unique low-interest environment and the stability of major Japanese trading companies, which could provide investment opportunities [9][10] Long-term Market Confidence - The company believes that despite short-term volatility, the long-term outlook for the market is positive, with expectations of a recovery in leading companies' performance [11][12]

Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a phase of pain due to an adjustment cycle, with many companies facing losses. Among the top ten photovoltaic companies by revenue, 70% reported a decline in revenue, and 40% are operating at a loss, with Longi Green Energy facing the largest loss of over 8.6 billion yuan in 2024, marking its first annual loss in a decade [1][2][7]. Industry Overview - The industry is characterized by a temporary oversupply of production capacity, leading to significant losses for major players. Longi Green Energy's revenue fell by 36.23% to 82.58 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 8.6 billion yuan, a staggering 180.15% decline year-on-year [2][5]. - The overall gross margin for Longi Green Energy dropped to 7.44%, a decrease of over 10 percentage points compared to the previous year. The gross margin for its silicon wafer and rod business was negative at -14.31%, while the module and battery segment also saw a significant decline [5][12]. Company Performance - Longi Green Energy's performance is indicative of broader industry trends, with other companies like Trina Solar and JinkoSolar also reporting substantial losses due to supply-demand imbalances and increased competition [7][8]. - In contrast, companies in the photovoltaic equipment supply sector, referred to as "selling shovels," such as Jiejia Weichuang, reported strong performance, with a revenue increase of over 116% to 18.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.76 billion yuan, reflecting a more favorable position in the current market [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with excess capacity and a lack of demand leading to significant financial strain on many companies. The industry is expected to see a clearing of outdated capacities and less competitive firms [7][12]. - Despite the challenges, there is an expectation that companies with core technological capabilities and strong cost control will emerge more resilient and may benefit from recovery opportunities in the future [12].

Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish, Expected to Oscillate with a Downward Bias [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [5] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [5] Core Views - Glass and soda ash markets face an oversupply situation, resulting in low - level oscillations. The glass market is pressured by high inventory and weak downstream expectations, while soda ash is affected by new production capacity and cautious downstream procurement [1]. - The ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are pessimistic. Their prices are suppressed by high inventory, but demand shows some resilience due to high - level hot metal production. Cost factors also play a role in price trends [3][4]. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Futures prices continued to decline, and spot trading was weak. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and high inventory strongly suppresses prices. Glass enterprises are reluctant to shut down production, and long - term losses are needed to clear excess capacity. Attention should be paid to production line changes and raw material prices [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices trended downward. Due to maintenance, daily production decreased slightly. Downstream procurement was cautious, and the market faced strong destocking pressure. The price will be under pressure until the oversupply situation is alleviated. Follow - up attention should be paid to production line maintenance and new production projects [1]. Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Ferrosilicon Manganese**: Futures prices oscillated at a low level. The spot market was weak, and factory low - price sales willingness was low. Production was at a low level but rebounded slightly week - on - week. Demand showed resilience due to high - level hot metal production. High inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppressed prices, while raw material supply contraction supported costs. Attention should be paid to hot metal data and manganese ore supply [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Futures prices oscillated weakly at a low level. The spot market was weak, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. Production reached a record low due to enterprise losses. High - level hot metal maintained demand resilience, but destocking was difficult. Short - term prices were affected by costs. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [4]. Strategy - **Glass**: Oscillate [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillate with a downward bias [2] - **Ferrosilicon Manganese**: Oscillate [5] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillate [5] - **Inter - period Spread**: No strategy [2] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No strategy [2]

Group 1 - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration is enhancing regulatory policies for the electronic cigarette industry to protect minors and ensure compliance with laws [1] - The average capacity utilization rate for electronic cigarettes, vaping products, and nicotine used in electronic cigarettes is significantly lower than the manufacturing industry average, indicating overcapacity in the market [2] - Since 2024, 103 illegal new electronic cigarette projects have been stopped, and 6 licenses have been revoked, demonstrating strict enforcement of capacity management [2][3] Group 2 - There is a strong focus on combating the illegal sale of flavored electronic cigarettes, with 7,615 administrative cases and 2,470 criminal cases reported, highlighting the ongoing enforcement efforts [4] - The global regulatory environment for electronic cigarettes is tightening, with countries like the UK, Belgium, and France implementing bans on disposable e-cigarettes [2] - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration is enhancing oversight of electronic cigarette exports, addressing issues such as illegal exports and trade risks due to stricter international regulations [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - For methanol, high imports are materializing, inventory accumulation is starting, and the futures price is undervalued. It's in a period of bearish factor realization. With macro - instability and weak methanol prices in Europe and the US, the unilateral direction is hard to determine. Given the low valuation, a long - position strategy at low prices is preferred [2]. - For plastics, the overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral, with upstream inventory accumulation during holidays. The import profit is around - 400, and there's no further increase for now. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [7]. - For polypropylene, the upstream and mid - stream inventory has increased. The basis is + 10, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. The import profit is around - 500, and there's no large - scale export transaction. With less planned maintenance, supply is expected to increase slightly. In the context of over - capacity, the 05 contract is under pressure, and pressure relief requires increased exports or monthly PDH device maintenance of 2 million tons [7]. - For PVC, the basis has strengthened. The mid - and upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices is ongoing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, and other factors in June [12]. 3. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From May 21 to May 27, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801, while the Jiangsu spot price dropped from 2330 to 2250, a decrease of 35. The daily change on May 27 showed a 0 change in power coal futures, - 35 in Jiangsu spot price, etc [2]. - **Market Situation**: High imports are materializing, and inventory accumulation has started. Iran has reduced its production, but there are non - Iranian increments and increased domestic supply. It's in a bearish realization period [2]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From May 21 to May 27, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 780, and the North China LL price dropped from 7260 to 7025, a decrease of 235. The daily change on May 27 showed a 0 change in Northeast Asia ethylene, - 75 in North China LL price, etc [7]. - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, with upstream inventory accumulation during holidays. The import profit is around - 400, and there's no further increase. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [7]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From May 21 to May 27, 2025, the Shandong propylene price dropped from 6520 to 6440, a decrease of 80. The daily change on May 27 showed a - 10 change in Shandong propylene price, etc [7]. - **Market Situation**: The upstream and mid - stream inventory has increased. The basis is + 10, and the non - standard price difference is neutral. The import profit is around - 500, and there's no large - scale export transaction. With less planned maintenance, supply is expected to increase slightly [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From May 21 to May 27, 2025, the Northwest calcium carbide price dropped from 2500 to 2400, a decrease of 100. The daily change on May 27 showed a - 50 change in Northwest calcium carbide price, etc [11][12]. - **Market Situation**: The basis has strengthened. The mid - and upstream inventory is continuously decreasing. Summer seasonal maintenance of northwest devices is ongoing. Attention should be paid to new device commissioning, export sustainability, coal prices, etc [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the significant decline in soda ash futures prices, the oversupply situation in the market remains unresolved, making it difficult for prices to find a bottom [1] - Soda ash futures prices have dropped from a peak of 1640 yuan/ton to a low of 1251 yuan/ton, representing a decline of 23.7% [1] - The production cost of soda ash has decreased significantly due to falling raw material prices, particularly for salt and coal, which are key components of production costs [2][3] Group 2 - The price of raw salt, which accounts for about 25% of soda ash production costs, has fallen from 340 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.2% [2] - Coal prices have also declined, with the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal dropping from 670 yuan/ton to 410 yuan/ton, a decline of 38.8% [3] - As of May 23, the production cost for soda ash using the ammonia-soda method in North China is 1285 yuan/ton, down 25.3% from 1720 yuan/ton [4] Group 3 - New production capacities are being successfully launched, contributing to an increase in soda ash supply, which exacerbates the oversupply situation [7] - Recent data shows that soda ash exports have increased significantly, with April 2025 exports reaching 17.06 million tons, a 112% increase compared to the same period last year [9] - However, the demand for glass, a major end-use for soda ash, remains weak, particularly due to declining prices in the real estate sector [9] Group 4 - The current production profits for soda ash are still positive despite the price drop, which may lead to further capacity additions rather than reductions [10] - The industry may not find a bottom until production costs force less efficient producers out of the market, particularly those using the ammonia-soda method, which has the highest production costs [10] - The price of soda ash may need to fall below 1200 yuan/ton to trigger a reduction in production capacity, with a potential target range of 1100-1150 yuan/ton to achieve supply-demand balance [10]

Core Viewpoint - China's exports to ASEAN increased by 21% year-on-year in April, compensating for a 21% decline in exports to the United States due to high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Exports to ASEAN countries, particularly Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, saw a growth of 20-30% in April, while exports to Singapore and Malaysia rebounded by 15% after a decline in March [1]. - The decline in exports to the U.S. has led to an increase in imports from China by ASEAN countries, with electrical products and components from China rising by 54% and machinery by 44% in Vietnam [2][3]. Group 2: Impact on Industries - The automotive sector in Indonesia experienced a significant increase in the import of Chinese electric vehicles, with sales reaching four times that of the previous year, accounting for 14% of new car sales [3]. - The textile and footwear industries in Indonesia are facing factory closures and layoffs due to the influx of low-priced Chinese products, raising concerns about increased competition for local businesses [4]. Group 3: Government Responses - Malaysia has implemented anti-dumping duties on certain Chinese products, such as PET used for plastic bottles, in response to the rising influx of low-priced imports [5]. - India has also introduced emergency import restrictions on certain steel products from China, imposing a temporary 12% import duty [5].

Core Viewpoint - The solar industry is facing significant challenges due to overcapacity and declining prices, leading to financial difficulties for many companies, including JinkoSolar, which is planning an IPO to raise funds for overseas expansion and debt reduction amid a tough market environment [3][4][18]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In mid-May, news emerged about major silicon material companies planning to reduce production to stabilize prices, but this has not yet led to a consensus across the industry [3][4]. - The solar sector has been plagued by overcapacity, with 36 out of 92 A-share solar companies expected to incur losses in 2024, and 61 companies experiencing a year-on-year revenue decline [4][6]. - JinkoSolar's stock price has plummeted over 80% from its peak, closing at 9.67 yuan per share as of May 23, 2024, with a market capitalization of approximately 32 billion yuan [6][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - JinkoSolar's revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 was 72.99 billion yuan, 81.56 billion yuan, and 70.12 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 14.02% in 2024 [8][9]. - The company's net profit figures for the same years were 5.54 billion yuan, 7.19 billion yuan, and a loss of 5.10 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a significant downturn in profitability [9][10]. - The average selling price of JinkoSolar's photovoltaic modules dropped from 1.47 yuan/W in 2023 to 0.92 yuan/W in 2024, contributing to the decline in revenue [11][12]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The solar industry is characterized as cyclical, with predictions indicating that the bottom has not yet been reached due to the lack of consensus on production cuts and price recovery [18]. - JinkoSolar is pursuing a project in Oman with a total investment of 3.957 billion yuan to produce high-efficiency solar cells and modules, aiming for production in Q1 2026 [18][20]. - The company plans to enhance its operational performance and restore profitability through increased focus on product R&D, global market expansion, and improved cost management [18][20]. Group 4: Debt and Financial Structure - JinkoSolar's asset-liability ratio has risen significantly, reaching 76.33% in Q1 2025, the highest among its peers in the solar industry [20][21]. - The company has seen a substantial increase in short-term and long-term borrowings, with short-term loans rising by 75.19 billion yuan and long-term loans by 127.65 billion yuan, marking record highs since its listing [20].

4月以来，锰矿价格持续呈偏弱运行态势，进而导致锰硅成本重心逐步下移。"五一"之后，随着中美经 贸高层会谈取得阶段性进展，商品市场悲观情绪有所缓和，黑色产业链估值开始修复。在此背景下，锰 硅价格也迎来小幅反弹。 成本中枢下移 4月至5月中旬，锰硅成本价格中枢持续下移。数据显示，内蒙古产区锰硅生产成本从6000元/吨降至约 5800元/吨；宁夏产区锰硅生产成本从6030元/吨降至5798元/吨，两大主产区锰硅生产成本降幅均在200 元/吨左右。 当前，锰硅产业正面临严峻的产能过剩困局。一季度行业利润显著扩张后，供给快速超越需求，使行业 基本面持续承压。进入4月，随着产业主动减产持续推进，市场库存水平逐步从高位向中性偏高水平转 化。 数据显示，4月锰硅产量降至81万吨，环比下滑10%。此番产量收缩，原因在于北方产区工厂深陷亏损 困境，单吨亏损约200元，被迫停产检修。 需求端，若计入收储需求，同期需求量约88万吨。库存表现分化明显：产地多家工厂主动累库，等待价 格反弹后出货；贸易商则通过销售仓单，促使中游环节库存被动消化。 展望二季度，锰硅市场或呈供需双弱态势。供应端，鉴于亏损局面延续，预计产量将维持低位运行。需 ...