欢迎扫描下方二维码关注： 琼后,即可甲预刃埋出口退(兜)祝。纳祝人 在办理出口退(免)税申报时, 货物已实现销售 按照现行规定申报办理出口退 (免) 税; 货物尚未实现销售 按照"离境即退税、销售再核算"方式申报办 理出口退 (免) 税,即: 在货物报关离境后, 即可预先申报办理出口退(免)税,后续再根 据货物销售情况进行税款核算。 政策依据 《国家税务总局关于支 持跨境电商出口海外仓 发展出口退(免) 税有 关事项的公告》(国家 税务总局公告2025年 第3号）第一条 二、出口货物报关单上同一项号下的 货物,未全部实现销售时,纳税人应 当如何申报办理出口预退税? 出口货物报关单上同一项号下的货物,纳税人 可对已销售部分和未销售部分进行区分， 已实现销售的部分 按照现行规定申报办理出口退(免)税; 未实现销售的部分 申报办理出口预退税。纳税人未作区分的,可全 部视为末销售,统一申报办理出口预退税。 政策依据 《国家税务总局关于支持跨 境电商出口海外仓发展出口 退(免)税有关事项的公 4 11 / 三十六大 九 十 口 八 十 告》(国家祝务尽局公告 2025年第3号)第二条 四、纳税人出口海外仓货物申报预退 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨建材 [Table_Title] 反内卷政策持续推进，关注盈利改善品种 ——建材周专题 2025W29 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 反内卷政策持续推进，关注盈利改善品种 基本面：水泥价格延续下跌，玻璃库存延续下降 推荐特种玻纤和非洲链，存量龙头为全年主线 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] research.95579.com 1 范超 张佩 李金宝 李浩 董超 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490516040002 SAC：S0490520080026 SAC：S0490523030002 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Title 反内卷政策持续推进，关注盈利改善品种 2] ——建材周专题 2025W29 [Table_Summary2] 反内卷继续深化，期待政策推进 本周反内卷政策持续出台推进。7 月 24 日，《中华人民共和国价格法修正草案（征求意见稿）》 对经营者不争正当价格行为进行了修订。7 月 25 ...

欧盟与美国达成的贸易协议引发德国和法国政府强烈不满，两国领导人警告该协议将对欧盟经济造成重 大损害。 贝鲁的措辞更为严厉，将协议达成日称为"黑暗的一天"，并指责欧盟"屈服投降"。西班牙首相佩德罗·桑 切斯（Pedro Sánchez）也表态称协议"毫无热情"。 周一，欧股在乐观情绪消散后回吐涨幅，主要股指有所回落，德国DAX指数收盘跌1%，法国CAC 40指 数跌0.4%，欧洲斯托克600指数下的汽车股平均跌1.8%，欧元对美元下滑逾1%。 德法领导人不满情绪高涨 德国和法国作为欧元区两大支柱经济体，其领导人对协议的反应尤为激烈。 默茨指出，该协议不仅将推高通胀率，还将全面影响跨大西洋贸易，他同时表示： "这个结果不能让我们满意，但这是在特定情况下我们可以达到的最好结果。" 据央视新闻，当地时间7月27日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与欧盟达成15%税率的关税协议。 周一，德国总理弗里德里希·默茨（Friedrich Merz）表示，与美国总统特朗普前一日敲定的协议将对德 国、欧洲乃至美国本身造成"相当大的损害"；法国总理弗朗索瓦·贝鲁（François Bayrou）更是将此协议 形容为"黑暗的一天"，称欧盟 ...

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：消费税对社会保障体系至关重要，下调消费税税率是不合适的。 在关税问题上寻求美国行政命令对日本很重要。 ...

日本财务大臣加藤胜信：对日本来说，寻求美国的关税行政命令很重要。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits, and making left - hand bets on the September Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - related supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [3]. - Methanol is affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment and may face price correction pressure. The upstream supply pressure is expected to increase, while the demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices [5]. - Urea's price is affected by sentiment. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is advisable to pay attention to long positions at low prices [7]. - For rubber, due to the peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia, the supply concern sentiment may decline. The price has a large correction. It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term and consider a long - short band operation for different contracts [9][11]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. Although it is strong in the short - term, there is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - The price of styrene is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term as the BZN spread is expected to be repaired [13]. - The price of polyethylene may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - The price of polypropylene is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. - PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. - PTA may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. - The fundamental situation of ethylene glycol is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.91, or 2.94%, to $66.98; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.01, or 2.94%, to $70.4; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.40 yuan, or 0.45%, to 527 yuan [2]. - **Data**: In China, weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.96 million barrels to 91.93 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.29 million barrels to 102.07 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.26 million barrels to 194.00 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 115 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 91 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 [5]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment, the price may decline. The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 1738 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [7]. - **Analysis**: Affected by sentiment, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU had a large correction [9]. - **Analysis**: The peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. The price has a large decline, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 224 yuan to 5149 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5100 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (+ 164) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 128 (- 15) yuan/ton [11]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread is expected to be repaired, and the price is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 172 yuan to 6890 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 23 dollars to 851 dollars [18]. - **Analysis**: It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 124 yuan to 4812 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 95 yuan to 4800 yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: It may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 109 yuan to 4436 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 83 yuan to 4499 yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21].

贵金属日报 2025-07-29 贵金属 钟俊轩 | | 单位 | 收盘价 | 前交易日 | 日度变化 | 环比 | | 单位 | 收盘价 | 前交易日 | 日度变化 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Au(T+D) | 元/克 | 771.58 | 773.61 | -2.03 | -0.26% | Ag(T+D) | 元/千克 | 9186.00 | 9372.00 | -186.00 | -1.98% | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 3305.25 | 3343.50 | -38.25 | -1.14% | 伦敦银 | 美元/盎司 | 38.13 | 38.74 | -0.61 | -1.57% | | SPDR黄金ETF持 | 吨 | 956.23 | 957.09 | -0.86 | -0.09% | SLV银ETF持 | 吨 | 15159.79 | 15230.43 | -70.64 | -0.46% | | 有量 | | | | | | 有量 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy marks a transition from local pilot programs to a national system, reflecting a pragmatic approach focused on improving people's livelihoods [1][2] Policy Overview - The policy aims to create a "family-friendly" society, emphasizing the importance of reducing the financial burden of child-rearing for families [2][3] - Starting from January 1, 2025, families will receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan for each child under three years old, regardless of whether they have one, two, or three children [1][3] Coverage and Financial Implications - The subsidy will cover all children under three years old, with an estimated annual total subsidy of approximately 1,012 billion yuan, funded by the central government [3][4] - Local governments are encouraged to provide additional subsidies based on their financial capabilities, allowing for differentiated support across regions [3][4] International Comparison - Compared to other countries, China's current subsidy level is relatively low, with the potential for future increases to enhance the effectiveness of the policy [4] Investment Recommendations - The policy is expected to benefit several sectors, including: - **Dairy Products**: The demand for infant formula is likely to increase, directly linked to the subsidy policy [5][6] - **Mother and Baby Retail Chains**: These companies are expected to see improved performance as birth rates rise, positively impacting same-store sales [6][7] - **Infant Products**: Companies in this sector will benefit from an expanded customer base due to increased birth rates [6][7] - **Postpartum Care Services**: The market for postpartum care is projected to grow significantly, driven by rising awareness and supportive policies [7]

尽管市场出现剧烈调整，但"反内卷"政策的基本逻辑依然存在。这一政策旨在改善当前市场的恶性竞争状况，通过限制低价无序竞争推动落后产能有序退 出。7月1日中央财经委员会第六次会议明确提出，要纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争。 政策预期对不同品种的影响程度存在差异。对于产能过剩严重的行业，限产政策的实施将直接改善供需格局。钢铁行业作为重点调控对象，随着限产政策推 进，三季度钢铁产量同比降幅预计达到5%，这将带动钢铁基本面改善。焦煤作为钢铁生产的重要原料，其需求端将受到直接影响。 7月28日深夜，国内商品期货市场迎来剧烈震荡。焦煤、玻璃、焦炭、纯碱、工业硅、碳酸锂等六大品种主力合约集体触及跌停板。氧化铝、多晶硅等超过 十个品种跌幅超过3%。这一轮急剧回调打破了此前"反内卷"政策预期推动的上涨态势。市场情绪从前期的狂热追涨转向恐慌性抛售，资金流向发生明显逆 转。 交易所限仓措施引发情绪转向 交易所密集出台的限仓措施成为市场变盘的直接导火索。7月25日，大连商品交易所对焦煤期货JM2509合约实施单日开仓量不超过500手的严格限制。广州 期货交易所同日将碳酸锂期货LC2509合约单日开仓量限制在3 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. Treasury Department expects a net borrowing of nearly $1.01 trillion in Q3, an increase of over $450 billion compared to previous estimates, primarily due to the debt ceiling increase and accelerated bond issuance [1] - The auction of 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak, with overseas demand hitting a three-year low, and the bid-to-cover ratio indicating increased market pressure [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the coal sector adjusted; market turnover reached 1.77 trillion yuan [2] - The financing balance increased by 5.472 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments in the capital market, which may help reduce stock market volatility [2] - The A-share market is considered to have high investment value, particularly in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology policies [2] Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - Daily average pig iron production slightly decreased to 2.4223 million tons, while steel mill profitability rose to 63.64%; coke production showed improvement [3][23] - The price increase in coke has stimulated downstream replenishment demand, with inventories rising for four consecutive weeks [3][23] - The crude oil market saw a 2.06% increase, influenced by a new trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, which includes significant investments in U.S. energy [4][11] Group 4: Industry-Specific Developments - The German government plans to approve a record investment of 126.7 billion euros in its 2026 budget, focusing on infrastructure and defense [5] - The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture emphasized the importance of rural revitalization and urbanization, aiming to improve living conditions in rural areas by 2035 [6] - The paper industry in Guangdong has initiated a "anti-involution" initiative to resist low-price competition and protect market integrity [8]