新华财经上海6月17日电（葛佳明） 在中东局势动荡的影响下，国际油价面临剧烈波动，美国通胀和经 济前景再度面临不确定性，美联储年内降息路径面临考验。 业内人士对新华财经分析表示，中东局势动荡使得原油价格大涨，一方面，市场对美国通胀预期再度被 推升，美债收益率存在上行压力，美国财政状况或进一步恶化。另一方面，油价持续飙升也会对美国经 济前景和劳动力市场造成威胁，美国经济出现"滞胀"的风险大幅上升。 美国经济前景不确定性攀升 地缘政治局势的升级引发全球避险情绪升温，鉴于极端情况下原油供应可能受到较大扰动，国际油价近 期大幅上行。6月17日早盘，纽约WTI原油和布伦特原油期货价格短线走高，布伦特原油涨幅一度逼近 2%，最高触及74.85美元／桶。 摩根大通在近期发布的报告中表示，尽管美国核心个人消费支出（PCE）通胀率已从2022年的5.6% 的 峰值降至近期2.5%的低位，但走势已出现逆转，预计到今年年底美国核心PCE将反弹至3.4%的水平。 今年以来美国消费者通胀预期飙升，而近期能源价格的飙升可能导致短期通胀预期再度攀升。在关税政 策传导的影响下，若通胀影响品类不断扩散，与通胀预期相互强化，形成通胀上升螺旋，美 ...

2025 年下半年宏观经济展望 产业重塑下的宏观剧本 2025 年 06 月 16 日 ➢ 回顾上半年，经济和市场最大的意外和波动是来自于特朗普政策的捉摸不 透。而这种风格带来的主要影响就是预期和实际的分化，例如预期恶化明显，但 实际经济数据却因滞后反应等因素表现韧性。展望下半年，预期和现实的分化会 继续，但是可能会呈现相反的状态。一方面，特朗普政策对预期冲击最大的阶段 已经过去；另一方面，政策对经济的负面影响下半年或将逐步显现。 ➢ 宏观的不确定性依旧是短期内的核心主线，但从更长的视野来看，我们也要 试着去把握一些确定性的叙事和逻辑，海外是美元信用体系的削弱，国内则是"十 五五"等长期战略下，科技产业链的布局。具体来看： [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 陶川 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0100524060005 | | | 邮箱： | taochuan@mszq.com | | 分析师 | 邵翔 | | 执业证书： S0100524080007 | | | 邮箱： | shaoxiang@mszq.com | | 分析师 | 林彦 | | 执业证书： S01005250 ...

Group 1 - Global financial markets are facing a complex test due to intertwined monetary policy decisions and geopolitical risks, particularly highlighted by the upcoming "Super Central Bank Week" led by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision is the focal point, with expectations to maintain interest rates unchanged, but the communication following the meeting will be closely analyzed for insights on future rate paths [2][3] - The Bank of Japan is in a delicate transition phase after ending negative interest rates, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining current rates due to cautious statements from its governor amid external uncertainties [4][6] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, is causing heightened risk aversion in the markets, evidenced by declines in U.S. stocks and a surge in the VIX index [7] - There are concerns about the potential spillover of the conflict, especially regarding the threat to the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to catastrophic impacts on the global economy if oil prices were to spike to $120-130 per barrel [8][9] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) is preparing to release strategic reserves to stabilize the market, reflecting the severity of the situation, while OPEC's criticisms highlight the differing perspectives between oil-producing and consuming nations [10]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, on various asset classes, especially oil and commodities [1][2][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Price Dynamics**: Initial expectations of rising oil prices due to the Israel-Iran conflict were tempered by limited Iranian retaliation, leading to a price drop of three to four dollars after an initial spike [4]. Future oil price trends depend on the evolution of the conflict, with extreme scenarios including a full-scale war and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz being deemed unlikely [5]. A neutral expectation suggests high volatility followed by a gradual decline, while an optimistic scenario involves a softening of Iran's stance and potential agreements with the U.S. [5][6]. - **Macroeconomic Environment**: The current macroeconomic environment is uncertain, but there is a general optimism for oil prices in June due to seasonal demand returning and the realization of production increases [6]. The geopolitical premium on oil prices is expected to diminish, but prices are unlikely to return to previous lows [6][8]. - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: Geopolitical tensions are hindering the reduction of inflation expectations in the U.S., which may delay interest rate cuts until September [8]. The high-interest rate environment is expected to suppress global demand, impacting overall economic activity [8]. - **Commodity Market Pressures**: The commodity cycle appears weak, with U.S. inventory levels peaking and a decline in Chinese domestic demand expected to pressure commodity prices [3][12]. The domestic refined oil market is experiencing limited price increases, with a weak outlook for automotive demand [15]. - **Gold Market Trends**: The gold market is driven by geopolitical factors, with central banks, including the People's Bank of China, increasing gold reserves, indicating a strong price trend for gold [10]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact on Chemical Products**: The conflict is affecting the chemical sector, particularly methanol, where Iran is a major supplier to China. Any escalation in conflict could disrupt methanol shipments [17][18]. The market for polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) is facing oversupply and weak downstream demand, leading to profit compression [20]. - **Historical Context**: The current geopolitical situation is compared to past conflicts, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, suggesting that while volatility may spike, a return to stability is likely [9]. - **Shipping and Logistics**: The conflict has not significantly impacted container shipping, with no immediate effects on major shipping routes [25]. However, the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz could affect regional throughput, though the probability remains low [26]. - **Market Sentiment and Strategy**: The overall sentiment in the market is cautious, with a focus on monitoring geopolitical developments closely. Strategies may need to be adjusted based on the evolving situation, particularly in the oil and chemical markets [23][28]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of the Middle East conflict on various sectors and the broader economic landscape.

Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - The escalation of conflict in the Middle East, particularly Israel's airstrike on Iran, has led to a significant surge in oil prices, with Brent and WTI reaching highs of $78.5 and $74.63 per barrel, respectively, marking daily increases of 12.0% and 13.2%[3] - Historical context shows that similar geopolitical tensions in the 1970s and 1980s resulted in oil supply reductions and subsequent economic impacts, including high inflation rates in the U.S. reaching peaks of 12.2% and 11.9% for overall and core CPI, respectively[4] Group 2: U.S. Economic Policy and Inflation - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced new tariffs on various steel household appliances, which may accelerate the rebound of core inflation, previously subdued by temporary factors[5] - The core PPI in the U.S. slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% in May, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics due to the new tariffs and rising oil prices[5] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell has expressed concerns about potential stagflation risks, suggesting that the Fed's current stance may be relatively accommodative, with low probabilities for significant rate cuts this year[5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Outlook - China's mid-range consumer goods exports have weakened recently, and the new U.S. tariffs could introduce uncertainties in export dynamics, necessitating increased fiscal support to mitigate risks[5] - The central government may need to enhance subsidies for domestic consumption of durable goods, especially if export pressures increase due to U.S. tariff policies[5] - A potential small rate cut of 10 basis points may be considered to stabilize real estate expectations and stimulate durable goods consumption amid a low U.S. dollar index[5]

Core Viewpoint - Silver is experiencing a resurgence as a valuable asset, driven by its dual role as a safe-haven investment and an essential industrial material, particularly in the context of rising geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty [1][4][8] Group 1: Investment Dynamics - Silver prices have surged over 20% in 2025, with domestic market funds increasing from 18 billion to 39 billion yuan, indicating a strong inflow of capital [1][2] - The price of silver has reached historical highs, with the Shanghai silver futures contract hitting 8,855 yuan per kilogram and international silver futures rising to $37.03 per ounce, marking a 23% increase year-to-date [2][3] - Institutional investors are beginning to allocate more to silver, as evidenced by the increase in silver ETF holdings, although the current allocation remains low compared to gold [7] Group 2: Industrial Demand - Over 50% of silver demand is now driven by industrial applications, a figure expected to rise to 56% by 2025, with the solar energy sector being a significant contributor [4][5] - The growth of the photovoltaic industry is projected to create a demand of 66,000 tons of silver in 2025, driven by the increased use of silver in solar panels [4][5] - Emerging technologies such as 5G, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence are further increasing silver consumption, with electric vehicles using significantly more silver than traditional vehicles [5] Group 3: Supply Constraints - The supply of silver is facing challenges, with slow growth in global silver mining output and declining ore grades, leading to a projected shortfall of 117.6 million ounces in 2025 [5] - The low recovery rate of silver, particularly from electronic products, exacerbates the supply-demand imbalance, contributing to rising prices [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Historical trends suggest that silver performs best during early economic recovery and rising inflation, conditions that are currently present [6] - The silver-to-gold price ratio remains high at around 90, indicating potential for silver to catch up in price relative to gold [6] - Long-term investment value in silver is supported by its financial attributes and industrial demand, suggesting that its upward trajectory may continue [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in global macroeconomic narratives from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism," driven by factors such as tariff impacts, fiscal constraints, and the implications of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" [2][8]. Group 1: Narrative Shift - The global macroeconomic narrative has transitioned from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" in the first half of 2025, influenced by tariff disruptions and trade conflicts [3][8]. - In early 2025, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained above the neutral mark for three consecutive months, indicating resilience in industrial production, but fell below 50 in April [2][8]. - The IMF revised its global GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 2.8%, with the U.S. forecast reduced from 2.7% to 1.8% [2][23]. Group 2: Economic Contradictions - The economic impact of tariffs has become a central theme, with the focus shifting to macro data validation rather than negotiation processes [4][53]. - The average tariff rate in the U.S. surged from 2.4% at the end of 2024 to approximately 16% by May 2025, marking a significant increase [4][54]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" primarily extends existing tax cuts, which may have limited economic stimulation effects but could increase long-term debt supply pressure [4][84]. Group 3: Paradigm Shift in Asset Safety - The current economic baseline for the U.S. is a slowdown without recession, with inflationary pressures expected to persist for 2-3 quarters [5][8]. - The article suggests that if the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds no longer serve as "safe assets," it could challenge the high valuations of U.S. tech stocks and the sustainability of twin deficits [6][8]. - The transition from "American exceptionalism" to "American denialism" raises questions about the long-term viability of U.S. assets in the global market [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warns that the bond market faces a risk of "collapse" if the U.S. government fails to control the growing federal deficit, sparking widespread discussion and varied reactions [1] Group 1: Bond Market Dynamics - Dimon's comments reflect the sentiment on Wall Street during a period of significant turmoil in the bond market, with long-term bond yields rising above 5% in late May, nearing the highest levels since 2007, indicating investor concerns over holding these securities amid increasing budget deficits [2] - Despite a successful auction of 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds on June 12, concerns remain about the demand for long-term bonds from other countries, as rising yields are attributed to a slowing U.S. economy and persistent inflation above expectations [5] - The volatility in long-term bond yields is more pronounced compared to short-term bonds, as long-term bonds typically offer higher interest rates due to their longer repayment periods, leading to increased investor anxiety regarding U.S. Treasury securities [5] Group 2: Global Debt Concerns - The global debt level has reached alarming heights, with the International Institute of Finance (IIF) projecting a record $324 trillion in global debt by Q1 2025, driven by borrowing from countries like China, France, and Germany [6] - Rising inflation and interest rates make it increasingly difficult to sustain such high levels of borrowing, with concerns that continued high bond yields and poor fiscal management could lead to unmanageable debt repayment costs [6][7] - Moody's downgraded the last highest credit rating for the U.S. due to fears that the expanding debt and deficit could undermine the country's status as a primary destination for global capital [7] Group 3: Future Uncertainties - The impact of high borrowing costs on long-term bonds issued during a period of ultra-low interest rates remains uncertain, with rising yields causing unpredictable consequences in the bond market [8] - The ongoing inflation post-pandemic and potential trade policies could further exacerbate inflationary pressures, leading to higher bond yields, while also risking economic activity and complicating monetary policy decisions for the Federal Reserve [8]

据环球网财经报道，6月10日，世界银行发布最新《全球经济展望》报告，将2025年全球经济增长预期从1月预测的2.7%下调至2.3%。这一增速仅优于2009 年金融危机和2020年疫情衰退时期，预示2020年代可能成为自上世纪60年代以来经济表现最差的十年。 无独有偶，华尔街顶级大佬、摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在当地时间11日警告称，随着特朗普颁布的关税措施持续产生影响，美国的经济数据可能很快 就会变得令人担忧。戴蒙称，"美国真实的数据会很快急剧恶化。" 世行： 华尔街大佬： 美国经济面临滞胀风险，市场现在过于乐观 与世界银行的预测相呼应，摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙在6月11日接受采访时警告，美国经济可能很快"恶化"。他特别提到，特朗普政府的高关税和移民 驱逐政策可能推高通胀，同时抑制经济增长，增加"滞胀"风险（即经济停滞与高通胀并存）。戴蒙表示，尽管5月消费者价格指数显示通胀有所降温，但此 时关税的全面影响尚未显现，"企业投资和消费者信心可能在未来几个月受到重创。" ▲当地时间5月20日，德国埃姆登港，大众汽车集团的新车。 根据世界银行对关税战影响的测算，如果2026年和2027年的全球经济增长态势也符合 ...

Group 1 - The current spot gold price has surpassed $3,370 per ounce, attracting market attention, with gold ETFs showing active trading and significant gains [1] - According to the European Central Bank's annual report, gold has replaced the euro as the world's second-largest reserve asset, following the dollar, with gold's share in global reserves reaching 20% in 2024, compared to the euro's 16% [1] - Global central banks have increased gold purchases for three consecutive years, exceeding 1,000 tons annually, which is double the average level of the 2010s, with total gold reserves now at 36,000 tons, nearing historical highs [1] Group 2 - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to global macro risks, policy dynamics, and funding behaviors, with a recommendation for short-term trading strategies and long-term investment in gold as a hedge against systemic risks [2] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with expectations, while concerns over tariffs and stagflation risks suggest that rate cuts are unlikely in the short term [2] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the trend of de-dollarization are driving central banks to continue increasing their gold holdings, which is expected to boost gold ETF purchases [2]