Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The suspension of the 24% tariff between China and the US for 90 days is a macro - level positive, but the market has returned to fundamental trading after a slight boost. PE supply is recovering with the restart of previously shut - down plants and new capacity from Jilin Petrochemical, while PP has low current overall开工率 but future supply pressure is high with the upcoming commissioning of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical's new PP plant. Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polyolefins are accumulating, cost support is weak, and downstream demand is gradually transitioning to the peak season [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7313 yuan/ton (-16), and the PP main contract closed at 7107 yuan/ton (+16). LL North China spot was 7270 yuan/ton (+20), LL East China spot was 7300 yuan/ton (+20), and PP East China spot was 7040 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 43 yuan/ton (+36), LL East China basis was - 13 yuan/ton (+36), and PP East China basis was - 67 yuan/ton (-16) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.1% (+3.0%), and PP operating rate was 77.3% (+0.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 404.4 yuan/ton (+35.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 75.6 yuan/ton (+35.8), and PDH - based PP production profit was 174.2 yuan/ton (-50.9) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not elaborated on in the provided content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 78.8 yuan/ton (-4.7), PP import profit was - 513.4 yuan/ton (-4.8), and PP export profit was 31.2 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.1% (+0.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.3% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 41.1% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.8% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not elaborated on in the provided content Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - delivery spread: 09 - 01 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: None [3]

| | | | | 尿素早评20250814: 基本面仍有压力 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | 8月13日 单位 | | | 8月12日 | 变化值 (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 山东 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1747.00 1788.00 1730.00 | 1756.00 1796.00 1720.00 | -9.00 -8.00 10.00 | -0.51% -0.45% 0.58% -0.61% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1726.00 | 1727.00 | -1.00 | -0.06% | | 山西 | | | 元/吨 | 1620.00 | 1630.00 | -10.00 | | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1740.00 | 1730.00 | 10.00 | 0.58% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1750.00 ...

隔夜，COMEX黄金期货跌0.15%，报3399.6美元/盎司。 中国经济网北京8月13日讯 今日，上海期货交易所日间盘黄金期货主力合约震荡收高，成交放大，持仓 减少。主力2510合约收报777.72元，涨0.08%或0.62元;成交量为206809手;持仓为201477手，持仓减少 3259手。 （责任编辑：张海蛟） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: The short - term external market is strong, but the continuous upward space of sugar price is limited. It is expected to maintain range - bound. In China, the inventory pressure is low in July, but the concentrated arrival of third - quarter shipments and increased imports in the second half of the year will bring pressure to domestic sugar sales. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize after a sharp correction [3]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals of pulp and its downstream have changed little. The import volume in July was high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is difficult to rebound. The price increase is difficult to be transmitted, but the price is less likely to return to the June low [5]. - **Cotton**: The external market may continue to bottom - hunting, and the domestic market is a game between tight spot supply and weak downstream consumption. The price may continue to fluctuate and sort out in the short term [7]. - **Apples**: The current focus is on the end of the old season and the realization of the new season. The initial production estimate cannot provide a trend guide. The price of early - maturing apples has risen, but the sustainability needs to be tracked. The overall price of the apple 10 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [8]. - **Jujubes**: The inventory is being depleted, and the spot price is running strongly. The 2601 contract is recommended for long - holding, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on production [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - **Apples**: Temporarily wait and see. The support range is 7400 - 7500, and the pressure range is 8300 - 8400 [18]. - **Jujubes**: Hold long positions. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure range is 11500 - 12000 [18]. - **Sugar**: Try to go long when it回调 to the lower edge of the range. The support range is 5500 - 5530, and the pressure range is 5670 - 5700 [18]. - **Pulp**: Short on rallies. The support range is 5100 - 5200, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5400 [18]. - **Cotton**: Temporarily wait and see. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [18]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In June 2025, the export volume decreased. The inventory in cold storage decreased. There are different estimates of production, with a slight increase or decrease [19]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong is stable. The shipment volume is general. The price of early - maturing apples varies greatly. The arrival at the wholesale market is small, and the price is stable [20][21]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of August 8, the inventory decreased. The arrival at the sales area increased, and the spot price was strong. Attention should be paid to terminal consumption and shipment sustainability [22]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market The domestic spot price is stable, and the price of the ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.54 cents/pound. The estimated profit of Brazilian sugar processing is high [24]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The transaction of imported bleached softwood pulp is light. The price increase is not accepted by buyers. The price of bleached hardwood pulp has increased, and two companies plan to reduce production [27]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market - Vietnam's cotton textile and clothing production data from January to July 2025 shows an increase in textile production and a decrease in clothing production. - Brazil's cotton picking progress is advancing, but lags behind last year. - Australia's cotton export volume increased significantly in June. - Pakistan's cotton imports increased significantly from July 2024 to June 2025. - Thailand's cotton imports increased in June. - Egypt's cotton net signing and shipment volume increased in the week ending August 9 [28][29]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2510 | 8178 | 51 | 0.63% | | Jujube 2509 | 10385 | - 145 | - 1.38% | | Sugar 2509 | 5706 | 28 | 0.49% | | Pulp 2509 | 5216 | 14 | 0.27% | | Cotton 2601 | 13980 | 100 | 0.72% | [30] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.90 | 0.00 | 0.15 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5960 | 0 | - 540 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5850 | 0 | - 250 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15177 | 16 | 407 | [33] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only references to relevant figures [44][45][49]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 10 - 1 | 193 | - 5 | 84 | Fluctuate repeatedly | Wait and see | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 1165 | - 1155 | - 580 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | Sugar | 9 - 1 | 98 | - 7 | - 235 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | Cotton | 1 - 5 | 70 | 20 | 105 | Range - bound | Temporarily wait and see | [51] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific numerical analysis provided, only references to relevant figures [58][60][65]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 9214 | 0 | - 970 | | Sugar | 17853 | - 387 | 1901 | | Pulp | 253327 | 1872 | - 239490 | | Cotton | 8087 | - 85 | - 2309 | [78] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data No specific numerical analysis provided, only references to relevant figures [80][82][83].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Methanol Daily Report, August 13, 2025 [3] - Research area: Commodity research - Energy and chemical industry [1][2] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [8] Group 2: Market Review - Futures market: The futures price closed at 2391, up 6 or 0.25% [4] - Spot market: Various regions had different methanol prices, with production areas ranging from 2090 - 2230 yuan/ton, consumption areas from 2230 - 2320 yuan/ton, and ports from 2360 - 2380 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Important News - Zhejiang Xingxing New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.'s 690,000 - ton/year methanol - to - olefins plant stopped on July 30, and the restart time is to be tracked [5] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply side: Coal mine开工率 in the northwest decreased, coal prices rebounded, methanol开工率 was high and stable, and domestic supply was loose [6] - Import side: The US dollar price fell slightly last week, import profit increased, foreign开工率 was high, and Iranian shipments to China increased [6] - Demand side: Traditional downstream entered the off - season, MTO开工率 increased, but some MTO plants had reduced loads or stopped [6] - Inventory: Port inventory increased, and inland enterprise inventory fluctuated slightly [6] - Overall: International装置开工率 was stable, imports recovered, demand was stable, and ports accelerated inventory accumulation. Methanol supply increased, and it was advisable to short at high prices [6] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Short at high prices, do not chase short [7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Sell call options [10]

8月12日盘中，原木期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至821.5元。截止收盘，原木主力合约报824.5元， 跌幅1.26%。 格林大华期货：原木09合约震荡 原木期货主力跌超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 原木主力合约维持交割成本波动，现货价格整体偏稳。基本面上，新西兰发运量走弱，国内港口出货量 维持6万方左右，港口库存压力有所增加，贸易商提价情绪增加，原木期价中心有望上移，但趋势性行 情还需下游市场超预期回暖提振才有概率出现。【交易策略】原木09合约震荡。 格林大华期货 原木09合约震荡 南华期货：原木为上行趋势中的区间震荡整理 盘面上来说，原木因为持仓量较小，容易受到资金进出的扰动而产生大幅的波动，近来几次都是因为大 幅增仓或者减仓导致日内价格波幅较大。09合约的进入交割月前还有3个星期的时间。目前盘面持仓2万 手。后续依然存在单日大幅增仓的可能性。目前的价格，按照现货的成本来计算仓单成本，估值为中性 水平。套保有薄利。若07转抛有存储成本，运输成本优势，则转抛利润也还可观。但这一部分的量相对 有限。技术上看，为上行趋势中的区间震荡整理。策略上逢低买入为主，可辅助高抛低吸。 机构 核心观点 南 ...

人民财讯8月12日电，碳酸锂期货主力合约午后走强涨超8%。 ...

棕榈油高位震荡偏强运行 摘 要： 行情展望： 马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）数据显示：马来西亚7月 毛棕榈油产量为181.24万吨，环比增加7.09%；棕榈油进 口为6.10万吨，环比减少12.82%；棕榈油出口为130.91 万吨，环比增加3.82%；棕榈油期末库存量为211.33万吨， 环比增加4.02%。 即将进入消费旺季，叠加生柴需求预期的兑现，国内 美豆缺席抬升豆系价格重心等一系列因素下，市场对于四 季度的价格预期较高。因此强预期和弱现实的局面下 01 合约相对 09 合约走强。只是由于产地近月挺价意愿强 烈，且 8 月 1-5 日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比大幅下降， 一定程度上对 09 合约有支撑，因此 9-1 价差仍然维持 窄幅震荡。短期内预计棕榈油高位震荡运行为主。 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：高剑飞 作者姓名：蒯三可 期货从业资格号：F0279818 期货交易咨询从业证号：Z0014742 邮箱：gaojianfei@nzfco.com 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 证监许可【201 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Futures Weekly Report on Rebar and Iron Ore [2] - Report Date: August 11 - 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Rebar futures and iron ore futures are both in a consolidation phase, and investors should wait for the next clear trend [7][31] Summary by Section Rebar Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of rebar futures has entered a consolidation range [7] - Trend judgment logic: Weekly production is 2.21 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.11 million tons, major steel mills' inventory is 1.68 million tons, and social inventory is 5.89 million tons. The daily - level price is in a downward channel, and the capital side is slightly bearish [7] - Mid - term strategy: Wait for the consolidation phase to complete [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of rebar futures entered a consolidation range [10] - This week's strategy: Wait patiently for the next mid - term trend [10] - Hedging advice for spot enterprises: Wait for the consolidation phase to complete [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading advisory department of Great Wall Futures [15] Iron Ore Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of iron ore futures has entered a consolidation phase [31] - Trend judgment logic: Global shipments last week were 30.61 million tons, arrivals at 45 major Chinese ports were 25.07 million tons, steel enterprises' inventory was 90.12 million tons, and domestic major ports' inventory was 136.57 million tons. The daily - level price is in a sideways phase, and the main capital shows a relatively obvious bullish attitude [31] - Mid - term strategy: Wait for the next clear trend during the consolidation phase [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of iron ore futures entered a consolidation range [34] - This week's strategy: Wait for the next clear trend during the consolidation phase [34] 3. Relevant Data - Data sources: Wind, Mysteel, and the trading advisory department of Great Wall Futures [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is expected to experience large - range oscillations. In the short term, the aluminum price is under pressure due to factors such as inventory accumulation and the consumption off - season, but it may turn stronger after a weak start in August. There is a possibility of the price breaking through the 21,000 mark with the support of potential positive factors in late August [5][12]. - For the medium - term, one can consider mid - line long - position layout below 20,000 yuan [5]. - In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Although the price is expected to be relatively strong, a large unilateral market is difficult to sustain due to the weak cost side and continuous accumulation of social inventory [8][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The short - term lack of new stimulus policies, a decline in investors' risk appetite, and the withdrawal of funds from the industrial products sector have narrowed the volatility of the aluminum price. With inventory accumulation and the consumption off - season, the price is under pressure in the short term. However, as August is the transition period between the off - season and peak season, combined with the decline of the US manufacturing index and the expectation of interest rate cuts, as well as domestic support policies, the price may turn stronger after a weak start in August [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Consider mid - line long - position layout below 20,000 yuan [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The price in August may be weak first and then strong. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract was expected to trade in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan, and short - term trading was recommended [7]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The price in late August is still expected to be strong, but a large unilateral market is difficult to sustain due to the weak cost side and continuous accumulation of social inventory. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: Consider moderately allocating virtual inventory in futures at low prices [9]. Overall View - **Bauxite Market**: The domestic bauxite market is not in surplus. The bauxite price in the northern region is expected to remain stable, while that in the south - western region may rise. Affected by the rainy season in Guinea, the bauxite supply in August may tighten, but due to the significant increase in previous imports and high port inventories, as well as the resumption of production of some suspended mines in Guinea, the shortage of bauxite may be limited, and the price will mainly operate at the bottom [10]. - **Alumina Market**: As of August 8, the domestic alumina production capacity was about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity was about 95.8 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was about 85.73% (85.58% last week), reaching the highest level since 2022 [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is about 45.45 million tons, the operating capacity is about 44.2 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 97%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum supply shows a dual - track pattern of "stable domestic growth + overseas supplement". Domestically, the replacement project in Yunnan will be gradually put into production in late August, and the third - phase project of Inner Mongolia Huayun has reached full production, with the monthly output expected to increase year - on - year. Overseas, the electrolytic aluminum output in countries such as Brazil and South Africa is expected to increase by more than 30% year - on - year [10]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,400 yuan/ton. Since June, the export volume of aluminum products has declined but remains at a relatively high level in recent years. Considering the suspension of Sino - US tariff confrontation, the export resilience will remain in the second half of the year, but the growth rate is expected to slow down compared with the first half [10]. - **Demand**: - **Aluminum Profiles**: The domestic aluminum profile industry's operating rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% this week. The operating rate and order volume of construction profiles are low, the off - season atmosphere in the automotive profile industry remains, the new orders for photovoltaic profiles are insufficient, and the processing fees are too low, resulting in low order - taking willingness of enterprises. The orders of photovoltaic frame enterprises are relatively saturated. In the short term, it is expected to operate stably [11]. - **Aluminum Sheets, Strips, and Foils**: The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 64.0% this week. The industry generally has low expectations for the consumption boost from terminal peak - season stocking in August, and the inertia of enterprise production cuts is difficult to change. The operating rate of aluminum foil leading enterprises decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 68.4%. The orders for air - conditioning foils have decreased by 5 - 10% year - on - year due to the large - scale summer equipment maintenance plan of air - conditioning terminals. With the mixed news of the cancellation of purchase tax incentives for new energy vehicles in 2026, the aluminum foil industry is expected to further shrink, and the operating rate will continue the downward trend [11]. - **Aluminum Cables**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable enterprises remained stable at 61.8%. Although the industry is showing signs of emerging from the off - season, the characteristics of the traditional peak season have not fully emerged. The operating rate of aluminum cables is expected to rise slightly in mid - August [11]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 1.0 percentage point to 55.6%, continuing the recovery trend since July. However, under the triple pressures of the unresolved Sino - US tariff issue, high aluminum prices, and negative feedback, the weak and stable pattern of the industry is difficult to break. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 53.1%. The terminal consumption has not improved significantly, and the off - season atmosphere dominates the market. In the short term, the operating rate of sample enterprises is expected to remain stable, but the industry as a whole will continue to decline [11]. - **Inventory**: - **Electrolytic Aluminum Ingot**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 566,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 32% from the same period last year. Since June, the outbound volume of aluminum ingots has continued to decline and is at a low level in the past two years, but it has stabilized since August. The inventory may decrease in late August due to the potential early arrival of the traditional peak season. The inventory of aluminum rods is 138,200 tons, a decrease of about 1% from last week and an increase of about 17% from the same period last year. In the short term, the off - season theme of downstream industries remains unchanged. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been increasing slightly since July after a continuous slight decline since May 2024. Considering the overseas resumption of production and the decline of manufacturing data in Europe and the United States, the subsequent inventory pressure may continue to increase [11]. - **Profit**: - **Alumina**: The average full - cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,850 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 400 yuan/ton, the same as last week [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 3,000 yuan/ton (2,800 yuan/ton last week), at a relatively high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: Before entering the consumption peak season, downstream enterprises mainly make rigid purchases. Without significant positive news, the spot is expected to trade at a discount, and the futures price will fluctuate at a high level. In late August, attention should be paid to potential positive factors such as policies (steady - growth plans), the peak season ("Golden September and Silver October"), and the Fed's interest rate cuts, with the possibility of breaking through the 21,000 mark [12]. - **Personal View**: The price is still expected to be strong, but a large unilateral market is difficult to sustain due to the weak cost side and continuous accumulation of social inventory. In the coming week, the Shanghai Aluminum 2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 20,500 - 21,000 yuan [12]. - **Key Concerns**: The progress of domestic steady - growth policies and whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season arrives early [12]. - **Direction**: Large - range oscillations [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The bauxite price is rising slightly and is expected to oscillate in the range of 70 - 75 US dollars/ton in the short term. The coal price continued to rise steadily this week, and the domestic supply is expected to tighten marginally before September, but there may be fluctuations in the short term. The alumina price rose and then fell again this week. With the increase in operating capacity, the alumina market is in surplus, and the previous speculation based on anti - involution has subsided [13]. - The electrolytic aluminum price rose slightly after reaching a high point. The holders of goods are trying to support the price, but the supply is loosening. Downstream enterprises mainly make rigid purchases, and the market is mainly focused on selling rather than replenishing at high prices. The recycled aluminum market still faces the problem of tight scrap aluminum supply, with obvious cost support, but the weak consumption and high social inventory restrict the price increase space. Attention should be paid to whether the demand expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is fulfilled in mid - to late August [14]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The domestic port bauxite inventory continued to accumulate slightly. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, but the impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually emerging. In the second half of the year, the domestic alumina market is in overall surplus, but there are regional structural shortages, and the inventory accumulation pressure is greater than the reduction pressure [17]. - The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas is 566,000 tons, an increase of about 4% from last week and a decrease of about 32% from the same period last year, mainly due to the off - season demand and high prices, which have slowed down the outbound rhythm. However, the inventory is still at a relatively low level compared with the historical average and is difficult to change in the short term. The inventory of aluminum rods is 138,200 tons, a decrease of about 1% from last week and an increase of about 17% from the same period last year. In the short term, the off - season theme of downstream industries remains unchanged [17]. - Overseas, the LME aluminum inventory continued to accumulate, mainly due to weak overseas demand. In addition, since June 20, the LME has implemented a new position limit rule for near - month contracts, which may have forced some hidden inventories to become visible [17]. Supply and Demand Situation - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.7% this week. The production arrangement of primary aluminum alloy enterprises is still cautious under the weak and stable pattern. The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip enterprises increased slightly, but the operating rate in August may remain at a low level. The operating rate of aluminum cables remained stable and is expected to rise slightly in mid - August. The operating rate of the aluminum profile industry decreased slightly, with obvious off - season characteristics. The operating rate of aluminum foil decreased slightly, and that of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable [22]. - The operating rate of aluminum processing is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [23]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current futures price structure of Shanghai Aluminum is relatively neutral but weaker than last month. The market has low expectations for the price increase in the second half of the year but is more optimistic about the first half of 2026 [27]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 1,560 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,480 yuan/ton last week [34]. - The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively high level in recent years, which may drag down the electrolytic aluminum price [35]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position of overseas funds decreased slightly. After 11 consecutive weeks of net long - position increase, both the long and short sides increased their positions slightly, indicating increasing market divergence. The market is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the near future [37]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main force increased slightly and steadily this week, with both the long and short sides increasing their positions slightly. The net long position of funds mainly from financial speculation has been decreasing since August, while the funds mainly from mid - and downstream enterprises have been continuously reducing their net short positions since mid - July and are now in a balanced state. Based on the performance of the main funds, the market is expected to oscillate at a high level next week [40].