1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded after the speeches of key Fed voting members, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. Further driving forces will be released in December. The Fed will hold its last interest - rate meeting of the year on December 10 (local time) and release an economic outlook report (including the dot - plot), and Trump will probably complete the selection of the new Fed chairman in late December [3]. - Currently, it is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 896 - 960 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 11367 - 12639 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.64% to 938.68 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.47% to 11975.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4129.60 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 51.09 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.04%, and the US dollar index was 100.20 [2]. - Multiple Fed officials' dovish statements drove the prices of gold and silver to stabilize and rebound. San Francisco Fed President Daly and potential new Fed Chairman candidate Waller both supported an interest - rate cut in the December meeting [2]. - New York Fed President Williams said there was still room for an interest - rate cut recently. After his speech, the market's probability pricing of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in the Fed's December meeting rose to 70% [3]. 3.2 Strategy Suggestions - Given the increasing expectation of Fed's interest - rate cuts, it is advisable to buy precious metals on dips. The reference ranges for Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver main contracts are 896 - 960 yuan/gram and 11367 - 12639 yuan/kilogram respectively [3]. 3.3 Data Summary - Gold: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) rose 1.75% to 4133.80 dollars/ounce, while trading volume decreased by 13.77% to 21.82 million lots. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) rose 0.36% to 930.32 yuan/gram, and trading volume decreased by 19.60% to 47.25 million lots [5]. - Silver: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) rose 3.01% to 51.16 dollars/ounce, and its trading volume decreased by 28.51% to 210.82 million lots. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) rose 1.10% to 11,808.00 yuan/kilogram, and trading volume decreased by 28.51% to 210.82 million lots [5].

Market Overview - Investors temporarily set aside economic and valuation concerns, leading to a significant rebound in U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 1.6%, marking its largest gain in six weeks, and the Nasdaq increasing by 2.7%, achieving its best single-day performance since May [1] - Risk assets, including stocks, cryptocurrencies, crude oil, and safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries, all experienced gains [4] Cryptocurrency and Commodities - Bitcoin surged over 4% during trading, while Ethereum saw an increase of nearly 9%; crude oil reversed a three-day decline, rising over 1% from a one-month low; gold also turned positive, gaining over 1% for two consecutive days [2][4] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Strong expectations for interest rate cuts propelled U.S. stock indices to open strongly, dispelling the previous week's gloom [7] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed support for a rate cut in December, reinforcing market expectations for monetary easing [10][18] - Daly highlighted the fragility of the labor market, suggesting that the risk of sudden deterioration is more pressing than managing inflation [20][22] Stock Performance - The Nasdaq Composite Index rose over 2%, with the semiconductor index soaring by 3.4%; the VIX, a measure of market volatility, dropped by 10% [9][13] - Major U.S. tech stocks, known as the "Magnificent 7," saw an increase of 2.75%, with notable gains from Tesla (6.82%), Google A (6.31%), and Meta (3.16%) [16] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 4.63%, with AMD up 5.53% and TSMC up 3.48%, contributing to a total market capitalization increase of $178 billion [12] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 2.82%, with significant gains in popular Chinese stocks such as WeRide (14.72%) and Pony.ai (12.51%) [17]

智通财经APP获悉，美国国债价格连续第三天上涨，原因是交易员们在根据美联储官员的鸽派言论重新 调整对下月降息的预期。美联储官员的鸽派发言使得几乎所有期限的债券收益率均有所下降，其中 10 年期美国国债的收益率降幅高达 3 个基点，降至 4.03%，为本月的最低水平。而对货币政策变化更为敏 感的2年期美国国债的收益率则因本周的拍卖而受到抑制。 投资者的关注点仍集中在美联储 12 月 10 日的决策上。此前，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯上周表示，他认为 在"短期内"还有进一步降息的空间。美联储理事沃勒周一与威廉姆斯意见一致，主张在 12 月进行降 息，随后从 2026 年起采取更为灵活的政策。据报道，旧金山联储主席戴利也表示支持降低利率。 Natalliance Securities副主席Andrew Brenner周一写道："投资者们感到欣慰的是，美联储的高层成员仍希 望在 12 月采取宽松政策，尽管就业数据要到美联储会议结束后才会公布。" 在外汇市场中进行隔夜指数掉期交易的交易员们预计，美联储官员下个月将把政策利率下调 25个基点 的可能性约为 80%，这一比例较一周前的 40%有所上升。不过，鉴于 10 月和 11 ...

全球股市崩盘!大调整何时结束这轮调整的终点看两个关键时间点，下面把主要脉络直接说清楚，别拐 弯抹角，让人好奇后面的细节，因为里面有时间点和真相，会牵动你钱包和情绪。 这次突然的大跌，核心原因简单明了，是美联储可能不会在12月降息，这一消息像断了支柱，AI泡沫 赖的两条腿——企业业绩和降息预期——当中一条被拔掉，市场就像没了平衡杆的杂技演员翻了跟头。 近五年来，纳斯达克和美联储利率关系负相关，这次美国9月非农数据在11月20日公布，市场预期新增5 万人，实际却是11.9万人，就业强劲意味着美联储更可能维持利率，市场对降息的幻想被迅速打破。 | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Kimi 小红书 拼多多合短剧游戏 虚拟人 | 水产 FENASS | | | | | 中文语 | | 3.51% 0.65% 0.47% 0.42% 0.22% 0.02% 0.01% -0.33% | | | | | | | | WEB3.0 白色家电 多模态 生物育种央企银行抖音豆包 AIGC 谷子经济 -0.43% -0.5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 6.75% during the week of November 17-21, ranking low among all primary industries. The industrial metals segment saw significant price drops due to a combination of declining macroeconomic expectations and seasonal demand weakness [1][14] - The report emphasizes that while industrial metals are currently under pressure, the overall macroeconomic environment remains supportive for a bullish outlook in the long term, contingent on demand recovery [1][27] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.90%, with the non-ferrous metals sector underperforming, down 6.75% [14] - Among sub-sectors, industrial metals dropped 8.28%, while precious metals fell 3.32% [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices fell with LME copper at $10,778/ton (-0.63%) and SHFE copper at ¥85,660/ton (-1.43%). Supply concerns arose from a mining accident in Congo, while demand showed no significant improvement [2][29] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum closed at $2,808/ton (-1.77%) and SHFE aluminum at ¥21,340/ton (-2.29%). The market is affected by geopolitical tensions and weak domestic demand [3][36] - **Zinc**: LME zinc prices decreased to $2,992/ton (-0.75%), with LME inventories rising significantly [37] - **Tin**: Prices remained stable with LME tin at $36,970/ton (+0.30%), amid tightening supply signals [40] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,062.80/oz (-0.53%) and SHFE gold at ¥926.94/g (-2.75%). The ADP employment data did not indicate a strong recovery in the labor market, contributing to price weakness [4][43] - The report suggests that despite short-term pressures, precious metals remain within a macro bullish framework, with attention needed on potential liquidity risks from rising Japanese bond yields [4][44]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that despite Nvidia's strong earnings report, the market remains cautious about the tech sector, with funds continuing to flow into defensive sectors like healthcare instead of returning to tech stocks [1][3]. - Nvidia's revenue grew by 65% year-over-year, with data center revenue increasing by 66%, and the company provided a fourth-quarter outlook of approximately $65 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectations of $62 billion [3][4]. - Concerns about the sustainability of cash flows in the AI sector are rising, as companies like Oracle and Meta are heavily leveraging to maintain their capital expenditures, leading to skepticism about the long-term viability of their aggressive spending strategies [4][5]. Group 2 - The market is experiencing a shift in sentiment towards AI investments, with increased scrutiny and doubts about the profitability of AI applications, particularly following the release of Google's Gemini 3 model [6]. - Macroeconomic factors are also impacting market sentiment, with a significant decrease in the probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which poses a threat to growth stocks sensitive to interest rates [7][8]. - Recent employment data showed mixed signals, complicating the Fed's decision-making process, and the market's expectations for a rate cut in December have dropped significantly from over 90% to around 27% [7].

Employment Data - In September, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, exceeding expectations of 51,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected and previous value of 4.3%[3] - The labor force participation rate unexpectedly increased to 62.4%, contributing to the rise in the unemployment rate as more individuals entered the labor market[3] Sector Performance - Employment in the service sector rose by 87,000, with notable increases in education and healthcare (+59,000) and leisure and hospitality (+47,000)[4] - The goods-producing sector added 10,000 jobs, with construction contributing significantly (+19,000), marking a recovery from previous declines[4] Labor Market Trends - The labor force increased by 470,000, but only 251,000 jobs were added, indicating a mismatch in job availability and labor supply, which pushed the U3 unemployment rate to 4.4%[5] - Despite improvements in certain sectors, indicators such as declining foreign labor, falling real wages, and rising initial unemployment claims suggest a persistent weakening trend in the U.S. labor market[5] Market Expectations - Following the employment report, December rate cut expectations dropped to 35%, but comments from the New York Fed President raised them back to over 70%[6] - The absence of October data and the delay in November data release have heightened market concerns, making the September report a critical economic indicator before potential rate cuts[6] Risks - The report highlights risks associated with unexpected changes in the U.S. economy and monetary policy, which could impact future employment and economic stability[8]

Core Insights - The market's hope for a recovery in tech stocks was pinned on Nvidia's earnings report, but despite a strong performance, selling pressure continued in the tech sector, with funds shifting towards more defensive areas like healthcare [2][3] Group 1: Nvidia's Earnings and Market Reaction - Nvidia reported a remarkable quarterly revenue growth of 65% year-over-year, marking a return to acceleration for the first time in two years, with data center revenue increasing by 66% [3] - Despite the strong earnings, concerns about an "AI bubble" persisted, leading to a sell-off in tech stocks rather than a rebound [3][4] - Institutional investors have been reducing their tech positions, with funds flowing into defensive sectors, particularly healthcare [2][3] Group 2: Concerns Over AI Investment Returns - There are growing worries about the sustainability of cash flows in the AI sector, as companies like Oracle and Meta are heavily leveraging to maintain capital expenditures [4][5] - The need for substantial capital investment in AI raises questions about the industry's ability to generate sufficient returns, with estimates suggesting a need for $650 billion in annual cash flow by 2030 to achieve a 10% return on cumulative capital [5][6] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors Impacting Market Sentiment - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has significantly decreased, which poses a risk to growth stocks sensitive to interest rates [6][7] - Recent employment data showed mixed signals, complicating the Fed's decision-making process, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest in four years [6][7] - Concerns about inflation and rising long-term Treasury yields are also affecting market sentiment, with a significant portion of U.S. debt concentrated in the short-term [8]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have fluctuated significantly, leading to a decline in risk assets and a slight strengthening of the US dollar. The MSCI global index fell by 2.5%, with major developed market indices also declining, particularly the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and Hang Seng [2][33] - The US labor market showed improvement in September, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.4% due to a higher labor participation rate. The government announced that October's non-farm data would not be released, with some data to be combined with November's figures in December [3][4][6] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have intensified, causing significant volatility in interest rate cut expectations. The minutes from the October FOMC meeting indicated that many officials preferred to maintain rates, leading to a 20 percentage point drop in market expectations for a rate cut to 30%. However, comments from New York Fed President Williams suggested potential adjustments, causing expectations to rise to 71% [7][9] Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to experience moderate growth in 2026, supported by resilient technology investments and stable consumer spending. AI investments are projected to remain strong, driven by commitments from countries like Japan and South Korea to invest in US AI infrastructure [12][17] - The labor market is anticipated to maintain a balance between supply and demand, with the unemployment rate expected to hover around 4.5% throughout 2026. The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to diminish in the second half of the year, contributing to a more favorable economic outlook [17][16] Market Performance - The US stock market is currently in a phase of consolidation following previous high valuations, with limited further downside potential. Sectors with low valuations and solid earnings support, such as healthcare and utilities, are expected to show resilience [2][33] - The S&P 500 index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 28.09, slightly below the past ten-year average plus one standard deviation, indicating a relatively high valuation level. The index's equity-to-bond ratio is at 0.87, above the historical average minus one standard deviation [43][39] Sector Analysis - The technology sector is likely to continue driving growth, with major tech companies expected to maintain high capital expenditure growth rates. This is supported by favorable policies and a stable economic environment [12][28] - The healthcare and consumer sectors are projected to remain resilient amid changing market conditions, with potential for growth driven by stable consumer spending and investment in technology [2][12]

廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 股指期货日报 2025年11月24日 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 降息预期升温带动股指高开，中小盘超调有所修复 市场回顾 今日股指涨跌不一，大盘股指收跌，中小盘股指收涨。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落2378.87亿元。期指方 面，IF、IH缩量下跌，IC、IM放量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 美联储"三把手"放鸽，称"近期"仍存在降息空间，市场预期12月降息概率盘中突破70%。威廉姆斯在 演讲中表示，随着劳动力市场降温，就业面临的下行风险已经增加，而通胀面临的上行风险有所减轻。他认 为货币政策目前处于温和紧缩状态，但限制性程度低于近期行动之前的水平。 2.日媒称中方拒绝明年1月中日韩首脑会谈，外交部回应表示中日韩三方并没有就第十次中日韩领导人会议的 会期达成共识。 核心观点 周末美联储三把手放鸽，强调就业下行风险，提振市场降息预期，今日股指集体高开。不过由于当前中日紧 张关系尚未缓和，叠加资金止盈意愿增强，股指高开后随即回落转跌。午后开盘集体拉升，中小盘股指翻 红，表现较强，中日风波影响下军工板块领涨，两市成交额再度缩量至1.7万亿元左右。我们认为今日 ...