Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Corn futures continued to rise this week, with the closing price of the main 2511 contract at 2,224 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the previous week. The US corn production forecast may be adjusted downward, while in the domestic market, the approaching new - season corn listing and sufficient reserves have led to weak market sentiment. The corn futures price rebounded due to short - covering [8]. - Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated slightly higher at low levels, with the closing price of the main 2511 contract at 2,519 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous week. During the new - old corn transition period, the industry's operating rate declined, supply pressure eased, and demand improved slightly, resulting in a decrease in inventory pressure. However, the inventory is still high, and alternative starches are squeezing the market demand. The starch market rose under the influence of the corn price increase but was weaker than corn [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract of corn futures closed at 2,224 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The US corn production forecast may be adjusted downward. In the domestic market, the approaching new - season corn listing, continuous reserve corn release, and sufficient enterprise inventories have led to weak market sentiment. The futures price rebounded due to short - covering [8]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure at the 60 - day moving average and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [8]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract of corn starch futures closed at 2,519 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: During the new - old corn transition period, the industry's operating rate declined, supply pressure eased, and demand improved slightly, resulting in a decrease in inventory pressure. However, the inventory is still high, and alternative starches are squeezing the market demand. The starch market rose under the influence of the corn price increase but was weaker than corn [12]. - **Strategy**: Short - term wait - and - see [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 11 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 915,637 lots, down 67,642 lots from the previous week. The 11 - month contract of corn starch futures fluctuated slightly higher, with a total position of 197,852 lots, down 11,035 lots from the previous week [16]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 59,080, with a decrease in net short positions compared to last week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 46,611, with an increase in net short positions compared to last week [22]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 57,753 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 7,450 lots [28]. Spot Price and Basis - As of September 4, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,360.59 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 11 - month contract and the spot average price was + 136 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,900 yuan/ton, showing a stable - to - weak trend this week. The basis between the 11 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 331 yuan/ton [33][37]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 11 - 1 spread of corn was 20 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 11 - 1 spread of starch was - 24 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [43]. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 11 - month contracts of starch and corn was 295 yuan/ton. In the 36th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [51]. Substitute Spread - As of September 4, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,425.78 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,360.59 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 65.19 yuan/ton. In the 36th week of 2025, the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch continued to widen, with an average spread of 212 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous week [57]. 3. Industry Chain Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of August 29, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 73.5 tons, down 3.5 tons from the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 112.7 tons, down 14.5 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 24 tons, down 3.1 tons week - on - week [47]. - **Monthly Import Volume**: In July 2025, China's ordinary corn import volume was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 1,030,000 tons (94.5%) compared to the same period last year and a decrease of 100,000 tons compared to the previous month [65]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 4, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 27.63 days, down 0.5 days from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.12% [69]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of July, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous month, accounting for 103.6% of the normal reserve of 39 million [73]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was 32.24 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 148.41 yuan/head [77]. - **Processing Profit**: As of September 4, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 110 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 396 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 680 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 257 yuan/ton [82]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of September 3, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 2.711 million tons, a decrease of 7.85% [86]. - **Starch Enterprise Operating Rate and Inventory**: From August 28 to September 3, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 515,500 tons, down 23,700 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 246,800 tons, down 17,100 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 47.7%, down 3.31% from the previous week. As of September 3, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.265 million tons, down 53,000 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.16%, and a year - on - year increase of 37.2% [90]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of September 5, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2511 contract of corn was 9.39%, a decrease of 1.31% from 10.7% in the previous week. The implied volatility fluctuated and decreased this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [93].

Group 1 - The synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract opening at 11,810.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 12,060.0 CNY, reflecting a 2.12% increase [1] - The supply side shows that the capacity utilization rate of China's high cis-butadiene rubber industry is around 75%, which is relatively high year-on-year [1] - Demand is supported by a slight decrease in finished product inventory among tire manufacturers, while overall inventory levels remain high [1] Group 2 - The overall supply of synthetic rubber is sufficient, but recent maintenance shutdowns in Shandong and East China may lead to a slight decrease in domestic supply [2] - The production capacity utilization rate is expected to improve next week as maintenance schedules are completed, although some companies are still facing production restrictions [2] - The BR2510 contract is anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 11,670 to 12,200 CNY [2]

Group 1: Core Advantages of Sina Finance APP - The Sina Finance APP excels in three dimensions: speed, comprehensiveness, and specialization, making it the optimal choice for most futures investors [3][11][15] - It provides 24/7 real-time updates on major global financial news, industry dynamics, and policy changes, enhancing the understanding of market impacts [3][6] - The APP integrates news, market data, and trading functionalities, allowing users to seamlessly transition from information gathering to decision-making [13][15] Group 2: Comparison with Competitors - Jin10 Data is favored by short-term traders for its data calendar and quick alerts but lacks depth in tracking specific domestic industries [4] - Wall Street News offers in-depth global macro and asset strategy analysis, suitable for long-term investors, but is less focused on commodity futures [5] - Zhito Finance is known for rapid updates on domestic policies and industry news but provides fragmented information that requires users to piece together insights [6] Group 3: Market Coverage and User Experience - The Sina Finance APP offers comprehensive coverage of all domestic commodity and financial futures with stable and accurate data [8][11] - It features professional charting tools and technical indicators, catering to both novice and experienced users [8][11] - The integration of market data and news enhances decision-making efficiency, creating a synergistic effect [11] Group 4: Trading Convenience and Security - The APP allows users to complete online account opening and fund binding directly within the platform, enhancing convenience [13] - It collaborates with top futures companies to ensure stable and smooth trading functionalities [13] - The APP addresses the disconnect between information consumption and trading execution, providing a one-stop experience for users [13][15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints - If Brazil's sugar production exceeds expectations or India relaxes sugar exports, raw sugar prices may test previous lows [4] - During the new sugar - cane crushing season transition period, with diversified supply and intensified competition between processed sugar and domestic sugar, the sugar market is expected to remain range - bound, but risks of declining import costs and unmet demand expectations should be watched [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Domestic Sugar Spot Prices - In Guangxi Nanning warehouse, the spot price per ton of sugar is 5980 yuan, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 416 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 16 yuan [4] - In Yunnan Kunming, the spot price is 5845 yuan, down 5 yuan, with a basis of 381 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 21 yuan [4] - In Yunnan Dali, the spot price is 5710 yuan, down 10 yuan, with a basis of 286 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 16 yuan [4] - In Shandong Rizhao, the spot price is 6030 yuan, down 20 yuan, with a basis of 366 yuan against SR09 and a basis change of 6 yuan [4] Domestic Sugar Futures Prices - SR09 futures price is 5564 yuan, down 26 yuan, and the spread between SR09 and SR01 is 31 yuan, up 3 yuan [4] - SR01 futures price is 5533 yuan, down 29 yuan [4] International Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices - The exchange rate of the Brazilian real to the Chinese yuan is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee to the Chinese yuan is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The price of ICE raw sugar futures is 16.05, unchanged; the price of London white sugar futures is 573, up 3; the price of Brent crude oil futures is 67.39, unchanged [4]

2025 年 9 月 5 日 沥青：开工暴涨，库存观望（隆众增百川降） 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,468 | -2.31% | 3,461 | -0.20% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,442 | -2.77% | 3,432 | -0.29% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 128,082 | 26,904 | 70,861 | (22,224) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 189,510 | 91,521 | 237,670 | (4,424) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 69400 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日 ...

2025 年 9 月 5 日 焦炭：成本预期下修，弱势震荡 焦煤：供给增量预期渐浓，估值回调 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【趋势强度】 焦炭趋势强度：0；焦煤趋势强度：0 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2601 | 1094.5 | -11.5 | -1.0% | | 期货价格 | | J2601 | 1581.5 | -12.5 | -0. 8% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2601 | 1185403 | 733627 | -12138 | | | | J2601 | 23549 | 46827 | 423 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌（元/吨） | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1430 | 1450 | -20 | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment ratings: - **Positive Outlook**: Rubber (trend intensity: 1) [12][14] - **Neutral Outlook**: PTA, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, PP, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, LPG, Propylene, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Shipping Index (European Line) (trend intensities: 0) [2][17][20] - **Negative Outlook**: PX, Glass, Styrene, Soda Ash, PVC (trend intensities: -1) [2][52][62] 2. Core Views - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Each commodity has its own supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment factors influencing its price trend. For example, PX is affected by OPEC+ production expectations and downstream PTA pressure; Rubber is supported by raw material supply disruptions and inventory reduction [6][16]. - **Market Uncertainties**: Many commodities face uncertainties from factors such as policy changes (e.g., anti - deflation and anti - involution policies), cost fluctuations (e.g., oil and coal prices), and supply - demand imbalances (e.g., new产能 releases and seasonal demand changes) [37][42]. 3. Summary by Commodity **PX, PTA, MEG** - **PX**: Cost collapse due to potential OPEC+ production increase, with a weakening unilateral trend. Suggest 11 - 01 positive spread and 1 - 5 negative spread. The downside of the unilateral price is limited, and it is advisable to go long on dips before mid - September [6][10][11]. - **PTA**: Follows the decline in crude oil prices. Focus on the 11 - 1 positive spread for the month - spread and the strategy of going long on PTA and short on PX for processing fees [10][11]. - **MEG**: Valuation drops due to the decline in coal and crude oil prices. The domestic production capacity utilization rate decreases, while polyester production increases. The supply in September is still tight, and the 1 - 5 month - spread may strengthen [9][11]. **Rubber** - **Market Performance**: The price is oscillating strongly. Supported by strong raw material prices due to weather - related supply disruptions and inventory reduction. However, the upward movement is limited by the weakening preference in the commodity market [12][14][16]. **Synthetic Rubber** - **Market Condition**: Remains in a volatile pattern. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber is high, and the inventory pressure increases. The short - term arrival volume of butadiene is high, but the "anti - involution" policy provides some support [17][18][19]. **Asphalt** - **Market Situation**: The production starts to increase significantly, and the inventory situation is mixed (increase in Longzhong data and decrease in Baichuan data). It is expected to follow the oil price in a range - bound movement [20][31]. **LLDPE** - **Market Outlook**: In a medium - term oscillating market. Although the demand from the agricultural film industry improves, the commodity sentiment weakens the futures trend. The supply pressure may ease temporarily in late September due to maintenance, and the inventory pressure is relatively small [32][33]. **PP** - **Market Trend**: Short - term oscillation, with medium - term downward pressure. The short - term demand improves, but the cost is weak. The supply pressure increases with the resumption of maintenance devices and new capacity releases [36][37]. **Caustic Soda** - **Market Analysis**: Not advisable to chase short positions. The market is in a wide - range oscillation. The driving force for price increase is insufficient due to export and alumina - related issues, but there is no obvious downward driving force for the spot price either [40][42]. **Pulp** - **Market Performance**: Oscillates. The average price of imported pulp decreases slightly. The futures price rises slightly, but the spot price has limited follow - up due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [45][47][50]. **Glass** - **Market Condition**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the downstream orders change little, resulting in a dull trading atmosphere [51][52]. **Methanol** - **Market Outlook**: Short - term rebound, medium - term oscillation. The port inventory accumulates, and the price is weak. The short - term fundamental contradiction is large, but the "anti - involution" policy provides some support [54][57][58]. **Urea** - **Market Trend**: Short - term fluctuations, with medium - term downward pressure. The inventory of urea enterprises increases slightly. The futures price is over - valued, and the 01 contract may face inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [59][60][61]. **Styrene** - **Market Situation**: Medium - term bearish. The long - position holders' expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season are strong, but the inventory in East China ports accumulates, and the tank capacity is tight in September. The short - term is volatile, and the medium - term fundamentals are weak [62][63]. **Soda Ash** - **Market Condition**: The spot market changes little. The production of soda ash plants increases slightly, and the downstream demand is average, with a weak price trend expected in the short term [64][66]. **LPG, Propylene** - **LPG**: The expected increase in OPEC+ production leads to a decline in the crude oil cost. The market is affected by factors such as CP prices and device maintenance plans [68][73]. - **Propylene**: The support from spot supply and demand weakens [68]. **PVC** - **Market Outlook**: Under pressure. The supply is high due to the "chlor - alkali compensation" profit model. The domestic demand related to the real estate industry is weak, the inventory accumulates, and the export growth may slow down [77]. **Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil** - **Fuel Oil**: Turns to an oscillating pattern and is still weak in the short term [80]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Continues to decline, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the foreign spot market narrows slightly [80]. **Container Shipping Index (European Line)** - **Market Performance**: Wide - range oscillation. The spot freight rate is expected to decline, and the supply - demand pattern shows that the loading rate in September decreases slightly. The 2510 contract may face loading pressure during the National Day holiday, and the 2512 contract has some negative factors. It is advisable to consider positive spread strategies for the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 contracts and to try short positions on the 2510 contract [82][93][96].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Natural Rubber - The raw material prices are strong, overseas ship arrivals are few, and inventory continues to decline. The fundamentals remain strong with expected upward potential. The 01 contract is expected to trade between 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. Monitor the raw material output during the peak - production season in the main producing areas and consider shorting at high levels if raw material supply increases smoothly [1]. Logs - The recent decline in log futures prices is due to the weakening cost support from lower foreign quotes and low acceptance of delivery products in the 09 contract. However, the fundamentals are still good with low arrivals, low inventory, and stable demand. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile. Consider buying the 2601 contract at low levels [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass and soda ash market has a slight rebound after a period of weakness, following the logic of fundamental oversupply. Although inventory decreased on Monday, it was just a transfer to the mid - and downstream. In the medium term, after the second - quarter PV glass installation rush, the growth of PV glass production capacity has slowed, and the float glass production capacity is flat with supply - demand pressure. Soda ash demand has no growth expectation, and inventory may face further pressure without actual capacity reduction. Track policy implementation and alkali plant load adjustments [4]. Polysilicon - In August, polysilicon supply and demand both increased, but the supply growth rate was higher, still facing inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit at 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying at low levels and using put options to short at high levels when volatility is low [5]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are weakly volatile. The cost is expected to rise due to increasing raw material prices and higher electricity prices in the southwest during the dry season. Although production has increased, there are signs of capacity reduction. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. Consider buying at low levels, with the main price range between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of SCRWF in Shanghai on September 3 was 15,050 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 870 yuan/ton, down 4.02% [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread on September 3 was - 952 yuan/ton, up 1.60% from the previous day. The 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, up 20% from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - Thailand's production in June was 421,600 tons, up 1.61% from the previous month. Indonesia's production was 197,500 tons, up 12.09% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - On September 3, the price of log 2511 was 798.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 12 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The price of 3.9A medium - sized radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [3]. Supply - In July, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 173.3 million cubic meters, down 1.51% from the previous month. The main port inventory in New Zealand was 470,000 cubic meters, down 11.32% [3]. Demand - As of August 29, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 62,000 cubic meters, down 4% from the previous week [3]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quote on August 29 was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The glass 2505 contract price was 1,235 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quote on August 29 was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract price was 1,357 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [4]. Supply - The soda ash production rate on August 29 was 82.47%, down 6.79% from the previous week. The weekly soda ash output was 719,000 tons, down 6.79% [4]. Inventory - As of August 29, the glass factory inventory was 62.566 million weight boxes, down 1.64% from the previous week. The soda ash factory inventory was 1.8675 million tons, down 2.26% [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock on September 3 was 51,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The N - type polysilicon feedstock basis was - 660 yuan/ton, down 76% [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main contract price on September 3 was 52,160 yuan/ton, up 0.55% from the previous day. The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was 30 yuan/ton, up 100% [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, up 6.53% from the previous week. The monthly polysilicon output was 131,700 tons, up 23.31% [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - enriched SI5530 industrial silicon on September 3 was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 610 yuan/ton, down 3.17% [6]. Monthly Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread on September 3 was - 8,475 yuan/ton, down 21,287.50% from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - The national industrial silicon production in August was 385,700 tons, up 14.01% from the previous month. The national industrial silicon production rate was 55.87%, up 6.20% [6]. Inventory Changes - As of September 3, the Xinjiang inventory was 119,100 tons, down 0.83% from the previous day. The social inventory was 541,000 tons, down 0.37% [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short fiber: Hold [1] - Bottle chip: Hold [1] Core Viewpoints - The downside space for short fiber and bottle chip is limited, and they should be treated as range - bound. The strategy is to go long on PF and short on PR [1] Summary According to Related Content Fundamental Tracking Short Fiber - Futures prices: Short fiber 2509 was 6350 yesterday, down 10 from the day before; short fiber 2510 was 6410, down 30; short fiber 2511 was 6410, down 58 [1] - Spread: PF09 - 10 was - 60, up 20; PF10 - 11 was 0, up 28; PF basis was 85, up 10 [1] - Position and volume: The short fiber main position volume was 104,824, down 61,547; the main trading volume was 97,885, down 10,672 [1] - Spot price and sales rate: The short fiber spot price in East China was 6,495, down 20; the sales - to - production ratio was 41%, down 4% [1] Bottle Chip - Futures prices: Bottle chip 2509 was 0 yesterday, down 5808 from the day before; bottle chip 2510 was 5884, down 28; bottle chip 2511 was 5892, down 18 [1] - Spread: PR09 - 10 was - 5884, down 5780; PR10 - 11 was - 8, down 10; PR main basis was - 24, up 8 [1] - Position and volume: The bottle chip main position volume was 33,026, up 490; the main trading volume was 71,609, up 30,209 [1] - Spot price: The bottle chip spot price in East China was 5860, down 20; in South China, it was 5940, down 10 [1] Spot News Short Fiber - Futures followed raw materials to weaken. Spot factory quotes remained stable, and transactions were negotiated on a case - by - case basis. Traders offered discounts. The mainstream negotiation range for semi - bright 1.4D was 6350 - 6700. The average sales - to - production ratio was 41% [2] Bottle Chip - Upstream polyester raw material futures declined slightly. Factory quotes were mostly stable. Low - level transactions were fair. Orders from September to November were mostly traded at 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] Trend Intensity - Short fiber trend intensity: 0; bottle chip trend intensity: 0 (only referring to the daily - session main - contract futures price fluctuation on the reporting day) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products**: Weak operation due to supply - demand contradictions, with a cautious - bearish outlook [3][5] - **Iron Ore**: Neutral - bearish fundamentals, suggesting to reduce short positions [6][7] - **Coke**: Bearish in the medium - term [8][11] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish in the medium - term [12][15] - **Ferroalloys**: Weak operation as fundamental contradictions are yet to accumulate, with a cautious - bearish outlook [16][18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: The supply - demand relationship of steel products has contradictions. For rebar, although demand has increased month - on - month, it is still lower than production, and inventory continues to rise. For hot - rolled coils, production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory has increased slightly [3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has declined, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are piling up. External ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, and the macro sentiment has cooled down, resulting in a weakening of the ore price [6] - **Coke**: Coke has started the first round of price cuts, and the game between steel and coking enterprises is obvious. Some coking enterprises may have production restrictions before the parade. Iron - water production remains high, but there is a risk of decline in the medium - term due to the expected resumption of production [10] - **Coking Coal**: Affected by the parade, production has decreased month - on - month, but it is expected to recover gradually later. The downstream restocking speed has slowed down, and there are multiple failed auctions of Mongolian coal. There is a lack of positive factors, and there is a risk of downward adjustment in the medium - term [14] - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, production continues to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down, and inventory has decreased. For ferrosilicon, production has decreased, and inventory has increased slightly. The fundamental contradictions of both are yet to accumulate [16][17][18] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: Currently, blast - furnace profits have decreased compared to the previous period but remain positive. Iron - water production is running stably at a high level and may decrease due to pre - parade production restrictions. Demand has increased month - on - month but is still lower than production, and inventory continues to rise, with room for decline in the medium - term [4][5] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory has increased slightly, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The overall supply - demand of steel products shows a loosening trend, and there is a risk of decline in the medium - term [4][5] Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Iron - water production has declined, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are piling up. External ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, and the macro sentiment has cooled down, leading to a weakening of the ore price [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Reduce short positions [7] Coke - **Market Situation**: Coke has started the first round of price cuts, and the game between steel and coking enterprises is obvious. Some coking enterprises may have production restrictions before the parade. Iron - water production remains high, but there is a risk of decline in the medium - term due to the expected resumption of production [10] - **Operation Suggestion**: Bearish [11] Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: Affected by the parade, production has decreased month - on - month, but it is expected to recover gradually later. The downstream restocking speed has slowed down, and there are multiple failed auctions of Mongolian coal. There is a lack of positive factors, and there is a risk of downward adjustment in the medium - term [14] - **Operation Suggestion**: Bearish [15] Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: Weekly production continues to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. Demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventory is 149,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons month - on - month. Steel mills will start restocking in September. The October manganese ore quotes from Comilog and United Mining to China are the same as the previous round, and the cost side has certain support. The fundamental contradictions are yet to accumulate, and it is expected to run weakly in the short - term [16][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: Weekly production has decreased, demand has increased slightly compared to the previous period, and enterprise inventory is 62,900 tons, an increase of 830 tons month - on - month. The fundamental contradictions are yet to accumulate, and it is expected to run weakly in the short - term [16][17][18]