Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead price has faced downward pressure due to weakening downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved supply tightness, and better refinery profits. The zinc price lacks sustained upward momentum due to weak demand and hawkish remarks from the Fed [1]. - For lead, it is recommended to hold previous short positions. For zinc, it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract rose by 0.23%. The Shanghai lead basis was -165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The spreads between different Shanghai lead contracts showed various changes. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 220,300 tons, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 21,645 tons, also unchanged [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, causing slight fluctuations in primary lead production. For secondary lead, supply has increased as previously - shut - down refineries resume operations. The terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises have decent operations, with demand showing an increase [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.14% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract decreased by 0.04%. The Shanghai zinc basis was -145 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The spreads between different Shanghai zinc contracts changed. The LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.97% to 67,774 tons [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The supply is expected to remain around 600,000 tons per month. The demand has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term long position [1] - Silver: Long - term long position [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong [1] - Nickel: Relatively weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level adjustment [1] Core Views - For gold, the long - term support logic remains unchanged due to geopolitical order reshaping and central bank purchases, and short - term entry opportunities exist. For silver, long - term global policy stimulates demand with a continuous supply - demand gap. Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend due to copper concentrate shortages and green copper demand. Zinc has limited up - and - down space in the short - term and a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the long - term. Lead, tin, and nickel prices are under pressure in the short - term. Aluminum prices are relatively strong in the short - term, while lithium carbonate prices are in a high - level adjustment phase [1]. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: After risk events landed, the market sentiment was basically released, and gold and silver fluctuated narrowly. Short - term attention should be paid to US data and government shutdown [3]. - **Underlying Logic**: The new gold tax policy affects different usage and user groups. The US government shutdown is in a stalemate, which affects Fed policies and market expectations. In the long - term, gold benefits from global monetary easing, dollar credit decline, and geopolitical pattern reconstruction [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Both gold and silver have stopped falling in the short - term. Medium - and short - term entry can be considered, with strong support at 910 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper fluctuated at high levels [7]. - **Industry Logic**: Copper concentrate shortages continue as major mining companies lower production expectations. There is an expected decline in domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter. The domestic smelting industry calls for anti - involution and possible production cuts. Downstream demand shows a pattern of high - price aversion and low - price purchasing [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try long positions on dips near the 84500 - 85500 range. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging can use options for protection, and strict risk control is required. The short - term focus ranges are [84500, 88500] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [10500, 11200] dollars/ton for London copper [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc fluctuated narrowly [10]. - **Industry Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and the processing fee has dropped due to smelter winter stockpiling. Refined zinc enterprise profits are in a small - scale loss. Zinc ingot production is expected to increase, and consumption is entering the off - season. The overseas LME zinc inventory soft - squeeze risk has eased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc lacks a clear one - sided driving force in the short - term, with limited up - and - down space. In the long - term, it is a short - side allocation in the sector. The focus ranges are [22200, 22800] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2980, 3080] dollars/ton for London zinc [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are cautiously optimistic, while alumina shows a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest rate cuts continue. Domestic production capacity is high, and terminal consumption is transitioning from peak season to off - season. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are affected by the rainy season, and the domestic industry is facing profit contraction and possible production cuts [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise operating rates. The main operating range is [21000 - 21800] [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel prices are falling back [17]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts continue. Overseas nickel production policies are adjusted, and domestic and overseas nickel inventories are accumulating. The stainless steel market shows a supply - and - demand weak situation, and terminal demand is weakening [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 123000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed low, with a significant reduction in positions and an enlarged decline at the end of the session [20]. - **Industry Logic**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, with continuous inventory reduction for 11 weeks and an expanding reduction range. Although supply is still growing, there are production declines in some regions. Terminal demand is strong, but the rumored resumption of production has a negative impact on the market [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see until the market stabilizes in the range of [80000 - 82000] [22].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年11月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 3、库存：上期所库存周环比减少，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格20日线下运行 偏空 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14800，基差-285 偏空 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is expected to experience weak performance due to cost reduction. Short - term butadiene weakness will drive down the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber. In the context of a neutral fundamental pattern of butadiene rubber itself, the futures price reflects the expectation of profit contraction. With weakened macro - drivers and a weak industrial chain fundamental background, butadiene rubber will operate weakly. The main focus in the future is whether the supply - demand pattern of butadiene rubber will improve periodically under the background of concentrated maintenance in November and a high NR - BR spread [4]. - In the medium to long term, the supply pressure of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the fundamental pressure is still relatively large. It is expected to maintain a weak pattern in the medium term [5]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Viewpoints on Synthetic Rubber Supply - During the current cycle, the butadiene rubber plants of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Sichuan Shun were shut down for maintenance, while the butadiene plant of Qilu Petrochemical restarted. The production capacity utilization rate decreased significantly. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 26,900 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.64%. The production capacity utilization rate was 66.95%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.76 percentage points. In the next cycle, it is expected that Zhenhua New Materials' plant will be shut down for maintenance, and there are expectations of maintenance for Maoming's butadiene plant and Zhejiang Transfar's 120,000 - ton/year rare - earth butadiene rubber plant in November. The short - term shortage of some spot goods is expected to continue [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the production capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased slightly during the cycle. It is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will fluctuate slightly in the next cycle, with most enterprises maintaining their current production schedules. The resumption of production by maintenance enterprises will drive up the production capacity utilization rate. However, in November, the overall shipment pressure remains high, and foreign trade orders are under - performing. Some enterprises have plans to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate. In terms of substitution demand, the spread between the NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. Inventory - As of October 29, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber was 30,900 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 6.90%. During this cycle, some production enterprises shut down or prepared to shut down, and the significant weakening of the raw material side led to the gradual restoration of production profits, driving some private production enterprises to sell at low prices. At the same time, affected by the approaching month - end and the weak future market, the negotiation focus of the spot side gradually declined, and the inventories of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises both decreased significantly [4]. Valuation - Currently, the static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 9,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. Due to the increase in butadiene arrivals, the dynamic valuation is expected to gradually decline. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation for the market is around 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. When the main BR2512 contract has a premium of about 100 yuan/ton over the market price in Shandong (with a single - month holding cost of around 90 yuan/ton), there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for holding spot goods and short - selling in the futures market, and hedging positions will gradually increase the pressure on the upper space of the market. The theoretical lower limit of the valuation range is 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton, as butadiene is expected to support the butadiene rubber price from the cost side. The theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber is mainly estimated based on butadiene price * 1.02+(auxiliary agents + labor)=7,500 * 1.02 + 2,500≈10,200 yuan/ton. In terms of actual full cost, the fixed costs range from 1,500 to 2,500 yuan/ton depending on the factory, so the minimum cost is about 9,500 yuan/ton (7,500 * 1.02+1,800). Due to the significant contradictions in the short - term butadiene industry and the continuous decline of the price center, the lower limit of the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber continues to decline [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a medium - term strategy of shorting on rallies without chasing short positions. The market may show wide - range fluctuations due to capital games during the day. The upper pressure level is 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton (mainly following the trend of butadiene rubber spot), and the lower support level is 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton (anchored by the butadiene cost of butadiene rubber) [4]. - Cross - variety: The spread between NR - BR is at a high valuation, but due to insufficient drivers, it is expected to fluctuate [4]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints on Butadiene Supply - During the current cycle (October 24 - 30, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 104,200 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared to the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%. During the week, plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Guangzhou Petrochemical, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical, Fushun Petrochemical, and Sichuan Petrochemical remained shut down, but the output of Beifang Huajin, Qilu Petrochemical, and a Shandong petrochemical plant No. 2 resumed, leading to an increase in production. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 106,300 tons, continuing to increase compared to the current cycle. Sichuan Petrochemical is expected to restart after a short - term shutdown, and attention should be paid to the output of Fushun Petrochemical and the commissioning of new production capacity in South China. It is expected that domestic production will increase slightly [5]. Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the medium - term operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, with the maintenance of butadiene rubber plants in November, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will decrease. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental demand. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained at a rigid level with little change [5]. Inventory - During the current cycle (October 23 - 29, 2025), the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased, with a month - on - month increase of 14.23% compared to last week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly by 1.47% compared to last week, and the enterprise inventory fluctuated slightly due to limited plant changes during the cycle. The inventory of sample ports increased significantly by 30.08% compared to last week. There were imported vessels arriving at ports during the week, and the rapid decline in the market led to slow turnover of some trade volumes, resulting in a significant increase in inventory. At the same time, the market expects that the import volume will still be abundant from October to November, so attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. Viewpoint - In the medium to long term, the supply pressure of butadiene remains the main contradiction, and the fundamental pressure is still relatively large. It is expected to maintain a weak pattern in the medium term [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing and has a low correlation with the raw material side [8]. - To support the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production has been continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industrial chains at certain stages [10]. - From 2024 to 2025, many enterprises have added or are expected to add butadiene production capacity, with a total of 380,000 tons added in 2024 and 860,000 tons expected to be added in 2025 [12]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals Supply of Butadiene Rubber - The production and operating rates of butadiene rubber plants of various enterprises have changed. Some plants are shut down for maintenance, some are restarted, and some have future maintenance plans. For example, Yangzi Petrochemical's plant is shut down for maintenance, Qilu Petrochemical's plant has restarted, and Maoming Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance in November [41]. - The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber have shown certain trends over time [42][43][44]. - The import and export volumes of butadiene rubber have their own characteristics over different time periods, and the weekly apparent demand also shows corresponding changes [45][46][47]. - The inventory of butadiene rubber includes enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory, and these inventories have changed over time [49][50][51]. Demand for Butadiene Rubber - The demand for butadiene rubber is mainly related to the tire industry. The inventory and operating rates of full - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province have shown certain trends over time [53][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The market shows fluctuations, with the polyester market around 488 - 493. The market is weak, and investors are cautious. The supply - demand relationship in the industry is complex, with supply being relatively weak and demand also showing a narrow range of changes. There are factors such as macro - economic conditions and raw material prices affecting the market [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - The market is in a state of shock. For example, the polyester market has fluctuations, and the price range is around 488 - 493. The market is relatively weak, and trading is not active [2] Supply - Demand Relationship - Supply is relatively weak, with factors like low production volume and limited supply of raw materials. Demand also shows a narrow - range change, and the overall supply - demand gap is relatively small [2] Price Changes - Prices are in a state of shock and adjustment. For example, the price of ethylene glycol has certain fluctuations, and the price range is relatively narrow [2] Investor Sentiment - Investors are cautious. The market is affected by macro - economic data and other factors, and investors are waiting and observing [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of having a trading plan and the distinction between professional traders and retail investors, highlighting that professionals manage risks effectively while retail investors often hold onto losing positions [1] - It mentions a specific trading opportunity in the futures market, particularly in asphalt, suggesting a potential return of around 200% and urging investors to act quickly [1] - The article notes that despite a positive market opening, the trading volume was lower than expected, indicating a cautious approach from major players and potential risks for smaller stocks [1] Group 2 - The cost of one futures contract is calculated at 105,200 yuan, with a profit of 4,000 yuan per contract, resulting in an approximate return of 4% [3] - The article highlights that in a narrow trading range, consistent daily gains of 5% and 4% can accumulate to significant profits over time [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 0.41%. In the domestic market, the cotton picking and purchasing progress in Xinjiang has accelerated. However, due to the drought and high - temperature in some southern Xinjiang areas, the yield per unit of seed cotton is lower than expected, and the purchasing price continues to rise. The downstream demand has not fully started, orders are less than expected, and as the demand gradually enters the off - season, the market lacks confidence in future demand. Cotton textile enterprises mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude and replenish inventory based on rigid demand. Overall, the cost of new cotton supports the cotton price, but the supply exerts pressure on the upside. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the economic and trade consultations [5]. - Operationally, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see attitude towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.41% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: In the domestic market, the supply side shows that the cotton picking and purchasing in Xinjiang are accelerating. The yield per unit of seed cotton in southern Xinjiang is lower than expected, and the purchasing price is rising. The demand side indicates that downstream demand has not fully recovered, orders are insufficient, and market confidence in future demand is lacking. Cotton textile enterprises replenish inventory based on rigid demand. New cotton cost supports the price, but supply pressure restricts the upside. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to economic and trade consultations [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take a short - term wait - and - see attitude towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: - The price of the December US cotton contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.90% [12]. - The price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.41%, and the price of the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract increased by about 0.33% [23]. - As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou Cotton futures was - 121,428 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 120 lots [28]. - As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,414, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [34]. - This week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou Cotton 1 - 5 contracts was - 10 yuan/ton, and the price difference between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,615 yuan/ton [37]. - This week, the basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract was + 1,265 yuan/ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract was 600 yuan/ton [46]. - **Spot Market**: - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,860 yuan/ton [41]. - As of October 31, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,475 yuan/ton, CY index: OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,700 yuan/ton; CY index: OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,660 yuan/ton [52]. - As of October 30, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was reported at 14,202 yuan/ton, an increase of 222 yuan/ton from last week; the import cotton quota price was reported at 13,368 yuan/ton, an increase of 364 yuan/ton from last week. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C21S was 20,061 yuan/ton; import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: C32S was 21,117 yuan/ton; import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index): port pick - up price: JC32S was 22,930 yuan/ton [56]. - As of October 30, the estimated profit of import cotton with sliding - scale duty was 641 yuan/ton, a decrease of 163 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit of import cotton with quota was 1,475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 305 yuan/ton from last week [59]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Supply Side**: - At the end of September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.0217 million tons, a decrease of 798,500 tons or 32.34% from the previous month, and a decrease of 43.87%. As of the end of September, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 846,000 tons, an increase of 61,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 46,000 tons month - on - month [64]. - In September 2025, China's total cotton imports were about 100,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month - on - month and a decrease of 20,000 tons or 16.6% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 690,000 tons, a decrease of 1.57 million tons or 69.50% year - on - year. In September 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, the same as the previous month and an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year [71]. - **Demand Side**: - As of October 15, 2025, the yarn inventory days were reported at 25.24 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%; the inventory days of grey cloth were reported at 31.43 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.00% [74]. - In September 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 24.4197 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.50% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. Among them, textile exports were 11.966 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.41% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%; clothing exports were 12.453 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 7.97% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.96% [79]. - As of September 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were reported at 1.06127 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 12.90%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was reported at 3.1%, a month - on - month increase of 6.90% [83]. 3.4. Options and Stock - related Markets - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is shown in the figure of the implied volatility of the underlying of the main cotton contract [84]. - **Stock Market**: The figure shows the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. [87]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西未来十五天降雨预期恢复，关注中美谈判结果新指引。目前现货油厂销售压力 | | 豆粕 | | 下降，存在挺价心理。中美会晤结果有关关税方面，略有调整，但目前的关税情况 | | | 短线震荡 | 依然导致美豆没有进口优势，对国内豆粕成本端支持依然存在，利空美豆。豆粕主 | | ★ | | 力合约大区间行情对待，短期震荡整理下，主力和远月可以关注调整后的短多机会 | | | | 关注巴西大豆种植天气情况。 | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | | 短线震荡 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。由于缺乏新驱动指引，以跟随豆粕趋势为主。 | | | | 棕榈油阶段性进入供需转弱状态，10 月，11 月马棕榈油预计持续累库。印尼增产 | | 棕榈油 | 短线回落 | 以及市场对于 B50 的质疑，利空棕榈油走跌。但考虑印尼生柴政策仍在，配合国内 | | ★ | | 棕榈油进口成本，棕榈油进一步可 ...

| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251031：区间整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/10/31 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 9,155.00 | -0.16% | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | 元/吨 | 145.00 | 15.00 | | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 54,950.00 | -0.07% | | 基差 | 元/吨 元/吨 | -3,950.00 | 40.00 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 9,350.00 | 0.00% 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,200.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,350.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Fuel oil has weakened compared to the previous period, and its volatility continues to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil remains stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded again [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: For FU2511, the closing price was 2,968 yuan/ton with a daily decline of - 0.07%, and the settlement price was 2,968 yuan/ton with a decline of - 1.30%. For LU2511, the closing price was 3,231 yuan/ton with no change, and the settlement price was 3,231 yuan/ton with a decline of - 1.58% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of FU2511 was 3 lots with a decrease of 165 lots, and the open interest was 4,849 lots with a decrease of 3 lots. The trading volume of LU2512 was 17,998 lots with a decrease of 5,486 lots, and the open interest was 17,703 lots with a decrease of 3,970 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total market warehouse receipts of fuel oil (FU) were 37,890 with no change, and the warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) were 4,960 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In Singapore FOB, the price of 3.5%S fuel oil was 372.7 US dollars/ton with a daily decline of - 2.70%, and the price of 0.5%S low - sulfur fuel oil was 437.2 US dollars/ton with a decline of - 1.05% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The settlement spread of FU11 - 12 was 143 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread of LU11 - 12 was - 15 yuan/ton. The spread between LU2510 and Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) increased by 33.1 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1]. 3.2 Trend Strength - The trend strength of fuel oil is 0, and the trend strength of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0, indicating a neutral trend [1].