以旧换新政策促进汽车消费增长 前4月海南汽车报废更新和置换更新近6万辆 海南日报海口5月20日讯（海南日报全媒体记者 罗霞）海南日报全媒体记者5月20日从省商务厅获 悉，今年以来，海南消费品以旧换新政策效能不断释放，前4个月海南汽车报废更新和汽车置换更新共 近6万辆，有效促进了汽车消费增长。 今年1月，海南出台加力扩围推动消费品以旧换新实施方案和相关领域实施细则，大力支持汽车、 家电、手机等数码产品、家居家装和电动自行车等耐用消费品以旧换新。在汽车领域，结合补贴政策， 海南一些市县推出购车补贴等举措、商家推出让利促销等活动，受到消费者的欢迎。 海口聚焦汽车消费市场，先后公布了第一季度汽车以旧换新补贴、"首展、首秀、首店"汽车补贴等 活动。三亚积极引导经销商开展形式多样的促销活动，限时折扣、金融分期、购车礼包等优惠措施陆续 推出，进一步降低了消费者的购车门槛。 "以旧换新政策覆盖范围广、优惠力度大，今年前来咨询的客户很多。目前我们销售的汽车中，置 换更新业务占比近40%。"比亚迪王朝三亚相关门店负责人表示，以旧换新政策激发了购买意愿，有效 促进了新能源汽车销售。 据统计，今年前4个月，海南汽车报废更新0.44万 ...

Economic Overview - Hubei province's economy maintained stable operation in the first four months of 2025, with industrial added value above designated size growing by 8.1% year-on-year, surpassing the national average by 1.7 percentage points [1][2] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 878.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, also exceeding the national growth rate by 3.0 percentage points [1][4] Industrial Growth - In the industrial sector, high-tech manufacturing led the growth with an added value increase of 19.3%, contributing 34.2% to the overall industrial growth [2] - Among 41 major industries, 25 experienced growth, with manufacturing growing by 8.6% and mining by 8.1% [2] - Key sectors such as computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing saw growth rates of 18.7% and 21.9% respectively [2] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Hubei increased by 6.5% year-on-year, outpacing the national growth rate by 2.5 percentage points [3] - Excluding real estate development, fixed asset investment grew by 9.5%, with infrastructure investment rising by 4.1% [3] - Investment in the primary industry surged by 24.1%, while the secondary and tertiary industries grew by 10.6% and 3.2% respectively [3] Financial Indicators - By the end of April, the balance of deposits in financial institutions reached 98,637.98 billion yuan, a growth of 9.4% [3] - The balance of loans was 91,294.24 billion yuan, increasing by 7.3% [3] Trade Performance - Hubei's total import and export value reached 260.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.5% [4][5] - Exports amounted to 189.65 billion yuan, growing by 36.6%, while imports increased by 8.4% to 71.13 billion yuan [4][5] - The province's trade with ASEAN and EU saw significant growth, with increases of 71.9% and 43.2% respectively [5] Product Export Details - Mechanical and electrical products accounted for 51% of Hubei's total exports, with notable growth in exports of computers, mobile phones, and integrated circuits [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the significant role of the "old-for-new" policy in driving China's economic growth and transforming consumption into a key engine of the economy [1][2][8] - The "old-for-new" policy has led to the purchase of over 100 million home appliances, indicating a rapid update of consumer goods in Chinese households [1][5] - The contribution of wholesale and retail industries to GDP has exceeded 10%, showcasing the impact of consumer spending on economic development [1] Group 2 - The articles discuss the shift in China's economic model from reliance on investment and exports to a focus on domestic consumption, highlighting the diminishing returns of investment in saturated infrastructure [2][4] - The importance of enhancing domestic demand is not only for economic growth but also for increasing China's global influence, as a large domestic market attracts international trade [3][8] - The "old-for-new" policy is seen as a crucial mechanism for achieving sustainable economic and ecological development, contributing to the establishment of a comprehensive recycling system for old appliances [6][7] Group 3 - The articles highlight the dual benefits of the "old-for-new" policy: increasing market scale and improving quality, which together support the expansion of the domestic market [5][6] - The policy has facilitated a digital and intelligent transformation in the home appliance market, with significant growth in smart home products and digital appliances [4][5] - The recycling efforts under this policy have led to a projected recovery of 200 million appliances this year, significantly reducing carbon emissions and enhancing resource self-sufficiency [7][8] Group 4 - The "old-for-new" policy is positioned as a long-term strategy for economic transformation, reflecting China's unique market advantages and forward-looking policy design [8] - The establishment of a nationwide recycling network and the creation of jobs in the reverse logistics industry are key outcomes of the policy, contributing to a circular economy [7][8] - The articles suggest that this policy serves as a model for sustainable development, providing valuable lessons for other developing countries [8]

2025 年 5 月 20 日 看好/维持 汽车 行业报告 | 分析师 | 李金锦 电话：010-66554142 邮箱：lijj-yjs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480521030003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 研究助理 | 曹泽宇 电话：17512502830 邮箱：caozy-yjs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480124040003 | 汽车行业 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报综 述：以旧换新政策推动业绩增长，行业盈 利能力复苏 投资摘要： 受益以旧换新政策，2024 年来我国乘用车销量保持稳步增长。2024 年我国乘用车（广义）批发销量为 2740.97 万辆，同比增长 6.15%；2025 年 1-4 月，我国乘用车批发销量为 859.7 万辆，同比增长 12.91%。 2024 年新能源乘用车累计销售 1222.7 万辆，同比增长 31.99%；2025 年 1-4 月，新能源乘用车累计销量 398.1 万辆，同比增长 42.08%。2024 年新能源乘用车渗透率提升至 44.6%，较 2023 年提升 10.2pct。出 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [2]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, which has stimulated steady growth in passenger car sales in China [4][20]. - In 2024, the wholesale sales of passenger cars in China reached 27.41 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.15%, while the sales of new energy passenger cars grew by 31.99% to 12.23 million units [4][22]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased to 44.6% in 2024, up 10.2 percentage points from 2023, indicating a strong trend towards electrification [22]. - The report highlights a significant divergence in performance within the passenger car sector, with leading companies like BYD showing robust growth, while others like SAIC and GAC faced declines [31][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Industry Performance in 2024 - The automotive industry in China is benefiting from government policies that encourage consumers to replace old vehicles with new ones, leading to increased sales [20]. - The total wholesale sales of passenger cars in 2024 were 27.41 million units, with a growth rate of 6.15% year-on-year [4][20]. 2. Passenger Car Sector: Performance Disparity - The passenger car sector achieved revenues of CNY 2,063.48 billion in 2024, a 9.79% increase, while net profit reached CNY 59.83 billion, up 1.37% [5][31]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenues of CNY 434.86 billion, a 7.39% increase, and net profit of CNY 14.09 billion, a 16.35% increase [5][31]. 3. Automotive Parts Sector: Revenue and Profit Growth - The automotive parts sector reported revenues of CNY 966.12 billion in 2024, a 6.14% increase, and net profit of CNY 47.41 billion, a 10.29% increase [6][53]. - In the first quarter of 2025, revenues reached CNY 234.43 billion, a 7.40% increase, with net profit at CNY 14.32 billion, a 13.56% increase [6][53]. 4. Investment Strategy - The automotive indices have shown significant growth, with the passenger car index rising by 7.29% and the automotive parts index by 14.82% year-to-date [7][75]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on intelligent vehicle development, with companies like Huawei leading in technology integration [79]. 5. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market position, including Zhongyuan Neipei, Xinz坐标, Kehua Holdings, and others, all rated as "Buy" [10].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rebound on May 20, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1% and the North Stock 50 reaching a historical high, driven by strong performance in the consumer sector, particularly in discretionary consumption [1] - The subsidy scale for the old-for-new replacement policy will double to 300 billion yuan by 2025, expanding the covered categories from 8 to 12, including new additions like microwave ovens, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers, as well as including 3C digital products for the first time [1] - During the May Day holiday, home appliance replacement sales exceeded 55 million units, with air conditioners and robotic vacuum cleaners performing particularly well, indicating a robust demand despite a slight slowdown in growth compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - The discretionary consumption ETF (562580) closely tracks the CSI All-Share Discretionary Consumption Index, with the top five constituent stocks including leading consumer companies such as Midea Group, BYD, Gree Electric, and Haier Smart Home, with automotive and home appliances accounting for over 78% of the index [2] - As the national economy continues to improve, the disposable income of consumers in China is rising, leading to a shift in consumption spending from food and clothing to transportation, healthcare, and consumer electronics, highlighting the investment value of the discretionary consumption sector [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the home appliance market in China is experiencing a significant boost due to the 618 shopping festival and the implementation of the trade-in policy, leading to a continuous increase in consumer demand [1][3] - In April, China's retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year, with a notable increase in sales of products related to the trade-in policy [1] - The home appliance ETF (159996) saw a substantial rise of over 1.5%, indicating strong market activity [2] Group 2 - The trade-in policy is expected to drive the purchase of nearly 90 million home appliances from August 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, with expectations for continued policy support to enhance consumer spending [3] - Recent reductions in tariffs between China and the U.S. are likely to alleviate cost pressures for Chinese exporters, while demand in emerging markets remains strong due to low penetration rates of home appliances [4] - Leading home appliance companies are showing strong cash flow and high dividend yields, with the sector's dividend rate nearing 3% as of April 2025, making it an attractive investment opportunity [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights that despite the impact of US tariff policies, the economic data for April 2025 shows stability with a slight decline in growth rates, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure investments, which remain at relatively high levels [2] - Retail sales in April 2025 reached 3.72 trillion yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in gold and jewelry sales at 25.3% due to low base effects and high demand for investment preservation [4] Macro Analysis - The economic performance in April 2025 reflects a stable growth trajectory, with consumer spending on services and the "old-for-new" policy positively influencing sales [2] - Manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth rates have slightly decreased but are still considered high, indicating the effectiveness of previous policies [2] Retail Sector Insights - The total retail sales for the first four months of 2025 amounted to 16.18 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [4] - Categories such as sports entertainment, home appliances, and cultural office supplies maintained double-digit growth rates, indicating robust consumer demand in these segments [4]

Financial Performance - The company's net profit significantly decreased in 2024, with a loss reported in Q1 2025 due to slow global consumer demand recovery, increased trade policy uncertainty, and intensified industry competition [2] - In Q1 2025, the company faced a loss attributed to a decline in product prices and gross margin [2] - The company aims to achieve its annual profit target through cost reduction measures and adjustments in supply chain management [2] Research and Development - In 2024, the company invested approximately CNY 1.315 billion in R&D, focusing on three core areas: display technology innovation, AI integration, and smart manufacturing upgrades [2] - 40% of the R&D budget is allocated to new display technologies (OLED, Mini LED, Micro LED, and electronic paper), while 30% is directed towards AI and intelligent function development [2] Market Impact and Strategy - The company reported that approximately 20% of its revenue in 2024 came from North America, where it faces challenges due to increased tariffs [3] - The company is actively adjusting production capabilities in overseas factories (Mexico, Thailand) to mitigate tariff impacts and optimize supply chain efficiency [3] Product Development and Market Trends - The company is focusing on high-end and large-size display products, benefiting from government policies promoting upgrades and energy-saving subsidies [4] - The company has launched various electronic paper products and plans to increase R&D investment in this area to capture market opportunities [5] Competitive Positioning - The company maintains a strong competitive edge through scale efficiency, production capacity, R&D capabilities, brand strength, and distribution networks [10] - The company is committed to sustainable practices, with three of its six domestic manufacturing bases recognized as "green factories" [10] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its presence in emerging markets and high-margin sectors, such as commercial and professional display solutions [10] - The company is exploring strategic partnerships and investment opportunities to strengthen its market position while minimizing reliance on acquisitions [10]

Group 1 - The consumer market in April continued to show stable growth, driven by consumption-boosting policies and a strong performance in the sales of upgrade and green products [1][6] - From January to April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 161,845 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, and a real growth of 4.9% after excluding price factors [2] - The retail sales in rural areas outpaced urban areas, with a year-on-year growth of 5.1% for county and township markets, accounting for 39.4% of total retail sales [2] Group 2 - The service retail market showed steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1% from January to April, outpacing the growth of goods retail by 0.4 percentage points [3] - Travel-related consumption saw significant growth, with various service categories such as transportation and leisure services maintaining rapid growth [3] Group 3 - Sales of upgrade and green products remained strong, with jewelry and cosmetics retail sales growing by 25.3% and 7.2% respectively in April [4] - The sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 38.8%, while the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 905,000 units, growing by 33.9% [4] Group 4 - Online retail sales of physical goods grew by 5.8% from January to April, with a 24.3% share of total retail sales, indicating a steady expansion of online consumption [5] - Physical retail stores also experienced stable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in retail sales, supported by innovative business models in membership warehouses and convenience stores [5]