1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint - Due to the continued extension of the mutual suspension of additional tariffs between China and the US, the increasing probability of a Fed rate cut in September, and disruptions in production or transportation at multiple overseas copper mines, combined with the traditional off - season suppressing downstream demand, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, and pay attention to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Summary - On July 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,840 yuan, down 160 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 65,404 lots, a decrease of 10,226 lots; the open interest was 173,744 lots, down 2,348 lots; the inventory was 18,083 tons, up 251 tons [2][3]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic session) on July 29, 2025, was 9,803 US dollars, up 40.5 US dollars from the previous day; the total registered and cancelled warehouse stock was 0 tons, a decrease of 127,625 tons [3]. 3.2 Company and Project News - In July 2025, Jiangxi Copper Group's first overseas wholly - owned factory, Jiangxi Copper (Zambia) Optoelectronics Co., Ltd.'s wire and cable project, was officially put into full production in the Zambia Mwaiseni Industrial Park. The first - phase investment is 11 million US dollars, with an annual production capacity of 40,000 kilometers of wire and cable and 10,000 tons of oxygen - free copper rods [3]. - Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of Quebrada Blanca due to ore storage problems, and has suspended production at the mine for one month [3]. - Fuye Group plans to establish a subsidiary, Jiangxi Heming Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd., in Jiangxi Hengfeng Economic Development Zone to build a project with an annual production capacity of 180,000 tons of recycled electrolytic copper [3]. 3.3 Upstream Production News - Teck Resources has lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in 2025. Mermot's Red Chris copper mine in Canada has suspended operations due to an accident. Anglo Asian Mining's Demirl1 copper mine has started trial production, with an expected production of 4,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2025 and 15,000 tons in 2026 and later. Norilsk Nickel has lowered its 2025 copper production forecast from 353,000 - 373,000 tons to 343,000 - 355,000 tons [5]. 3.4 Macro - level News - The US Senate has passed a stablecoin - related bill, allowing pension funds and other institutions to invest in assets such as gold and digital currencies. Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, causing a slight increase in the US consumer - end CPE rate in June. The initial jobless claims were 217,000, lower than expected and the previous value. The probability of a Fed rate cut in August has increased due to political pressure [4][5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "固收周报 - 债市回调，但情绪依然乐观 —— 债市情绪面周报（7 月第 3 周）" [1] - Report Type: Fixed Income Weekly Report [10][16][28] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [3] Group 2: Core Views - Current bond market situation: Sellers are bullish, while buyers expect a sideways trend. Recent anti - involution and consumption policies, along with the strength of the infrastructure sector, have led to a weak performance in the bond market. After the major tax period, the capital market is generally stable, with a slight increase in interest rates [3]. - Outlook for the future: The probability of unexpected incremental policies in the Politburo meeting in July is low. The market still expects the central bank to restart treasury bond trading. There are still uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff situation in August. It is expected that the fundamental situation in the second half of the year will not be negative for the bond market. At the micro - level, as large banks increase their net purchases of certificates of deposit and short - term treasury bonds, the steepening of the yield curve may continue. The bond market has been sideways for three months, and the use of various investment strategies by investors is quite saturated, with high market congestion, so the probability of continued sideways movement is high [3]. - Market sentiment: Nearly 60% of fixed - income sellers are still bullish on the bond market this week, but the sentiment has declined compared to last week. Fixed - income buyers' views are generally neutral to bullish, and the sentiment index has remained unchanged for two weeks [3][4]. Group 3: Seller and Buyer Market 3.1 Seller Market - Sentiment index: The weighted sentiment index is 0.37, and the unweighted index is 0.54, down 0.1 from last week. 15 institutions are bullish, 10 are neutral, and 1 are bearish [11]. - Bullish institutions (58%): Key factors include lack of support on the commodity demand side, reduced sensitivity of the bond market to equities, and stable capital operation after the tax period [11]. - Neutral institutions (38%): Key factors include the neutral impact of the unfreezing of pledged bonds on the bond market, resilient economic data, and accelerated issuance of local government bonds in the future [11]. - Bearish institutions (4%): Key factors include that the unfreezing of pledged bonds does not mean the central bank will restart bond purchases, and the stock - bond ratio leads to an increase in bond market interest rates [11]. 3.2 Buyer Market - Sentiment index: The sentiment index is 0.13, remaining unchanged from last week. 5 institutions are bullish, and 13 are neutral [12]. - Bullish institutions (28%): Key factors include the resonance of slowing nominal GDP growth and monetary easing, average economic data, a friendly central bank attitude, and increased fiscal fund investment [12]. - Neutral institutions (72%): Key factors include that the impact of the tax period on the capital market has not completely ended, the stock - bond跷跷板 effect still exists, good production, investment, and export data, possible improvement in Sino - US relations, uncertainties in the Politburo meeting at the end of the month, and the need for substantial news to break the deadlock [12]. Group 4: Bond Market Segments 4.1 Credit Bonds - Market trends: Financial management funds are entering the market, and the Science and Technology Innovation Bond ETF is expanding. The spread is expected to compress slightly due to the entry of financial management funds and the support from the central bank for science and technology innovation bonds [19][20]. 4.2 Convertible Bonds - Market view: Institutions are generally bullish this week. All 8 institutions hold a bullish attitude, supported by short - term supply - demand issues, the allocation demand of fixed - income + institutions, the urgency of conversion near maturity, and clause games [22]. Group 5: Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 5.1 Futures Trading - Price: As of July 18, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were 102.43 yuan, 105.99 yuan, 108.79 yuan, and 120.46 yuan respectively, down 0.02 yuan, 0.01 yuan, 0.04 yuan, and 0.15 yuan from last Friday [24]. - Open interest: The open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 1753, 4914, 5152, and 3403 hands respectively compared to last Friday [24]. - Trading volume: From a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 170.93 billion yuan, 117.46 billion yuan, 106.42 billion yuan, and 128.95 billion yuan respectively compared to last Friday [24]. - Trading volume to open interest ratio: The trading volume to open interest ratios of TS/TF/T/TL contracts decreased by 0.07, 0.07, 0.04, and 0.09 respectively compared to last Friday [25]. 5.2 Spot Bond Trading - Turnover rate: The turnover rates of 30 - year treasury bonds, interest - rate bonds, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds all decreased. On July 18, the turnover rates were 2.86%, 0.82%, and 5.14% respectively, down 3.17pct, 0.15pct, and 0.44pct from last week [32][43]. 5.3 Basis Trading - Basis: The basis of TS and T main contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the basis of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 0.003 yuan, 0.01 yuan, 0.06 yuan, and 0.22 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.003 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, +0.06 yuan, and - 0.12 yuan from last Friday [41]. - Net basis: The net basis of TF and TL main contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the net basis of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were - 0.01 yuan, - 0.02 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and - 0.05 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, - 0.002 yuan, +0.08 yuan, and - 0.08 yuan from last Friday [42][45]. - IRR: The IRR of main contracts showed mixed trends. As of July 18, the IRR of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 1.56%, 1.65%, 1.37%, and 1.71% respectively, with changes of - 0.02%, +0.06%, - 0.39%, and +0.36% from last Friday [45]. 5.4 Spread Trading - Inter - delivery spread: The inter - delivery spread of T contracts widened, while others narrowed. As of July 18, the near - month minus far - month spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were - 0.07 yuan, - 0.06 yuan, - 0.05 yuan, and 0.18 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.03 yuan, +0.05 yuan, - 0.01 yuan, and +0 yuan from last Friday [52]. - Inter - product spread: Except for the 3*T - TL contract, the inter - product spreads of other main contracts widened. As of July 18, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL were 98.86 yuan, 103.20 yuan, 300.93 yuan, and 205.90 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, +0.06 yuan, +0.09 yuan, and - 0.03 yuan from last Friday [53].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **Chinese economy** and its **export-import dynamics** in the context of global trade, particularly focusing on the impact of U.S.-China tariffs and the overall economic performance in 2025. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Export Performance**: In June 2025, China's exports showed a short-term strength with a year-on-year growth of **5.8%**, and a quarterly growth of **6.2%**. This was attributed to the easing of U.S.-China tariffs, although a decline in growth is expected post-August 2025 [1][3][6]. 2. **Import Dynamics**: Imports turned positive in June with a year-on-year growth of **1.1%**, driven by rising oil prices. The trade surplus expanded to **$114.77 billion**, marking the second-highest level of the year [1][4]. 3. **Sector-Specific Trends**: - **Consumer Goods**: Rapid recovery in consumer goods exports due to tariff easing. - **Semiconductors**: Steady improvement in the semiconductor and electronics sectors. - **Automotive Sector**: A cooling trend in automotive and parts exports, contributing only **0.7 percentage points** to overall export growth, influenced by U.S. tariffs and EU policies [1][7]. 4. **Economic Growth Contributions**: In the first half of 2025, net exports contributed **1.6 percentage points** to GDP growth, with a notable contribution of **1.2 percentage points** in Q2 [1][8]. 5. **Challenges Ahead**: The second half of 2025 is expected to face significant challenges due to uncertainties in the global tariff environment, particularly with the U.S. initiating new tariffs and the potential end of the tariff easing period [1][9][16]. 6. **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment saw a decline of **0.1%** in June, marking the first negative growth since 2022, with real estate development investment dropping by **12.9%** [3][12][13]. 7. **Consumer Spending**: Retail sales growth slowed to **4.8%** in June, with durable goods related to real estate maintaining high growth rates, particularly in automobiles and home appliances [3][11]. 8. **Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlook**: Anticipated monetary easing and fiscal measures to stimulate demand and stabilize the economy, especially if export declines accelerate post-August [10][17]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Tariff Environment**: The uncertainty surrounding global tariffs, especially from the U.S., poses a risk to China's export outlook, particularly in the automotive sector [6][9]. 2. **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market continues to struggle, with significant declines in sales and prices, indicating a need for more robust policy support [14][22]. 3. **Labor Market and Inflation**: The U.S. labor market shows signs of improvement, which may influence inflation expectations and subsequently affect China's monetary policy decisions [26][28]. 4. **Urbanization Strategy**: The central urbanization strategy emphasizes a shift from rapid growth to stable development, focusing on quality improvements rather than quantity [23][25]. This summary encapsulates the critical points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy and its trade dynamics.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is affected by multiple factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand conditions. It is expected to have an overall range - bound trend. The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation of low valuation, short - term high supply, and cost support, with a mixed long - short situation [2][5]. - The global soybean import cost is currently stable, but there is a risk of unexpected decline due to potential trade war easing or macro - impacts [3]. - The global soybean or protein supply is still in surplus, while the domestic soybean meal market has cost support due to procurement issues related to Sino - US tariffs [5]. - The EPA policy has increased the annual operating center of the oil market, but there are still negative factors such as high production in Southeast Asian palm oil regions, and the market is expected to be volatile [7][10]. - The domestic sugar market may face increased import pressure in the second half of the year, and the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [13]. - The cotton market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with potential negative factors such as the possible issuance of sliding - scale import quotas in July - August [16]. - The egg market has a large supply, and the short - term rebound space is limited. It is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [18]. - The pig market has a certain degree of support in the short term, but there are pressures from supply postponement and hedging in the medium term [21]. 3. Summary by Catalog Soybean/Meal - **Important Information**: On Monday, the US soybean price slightly declined. The good - excellent rate of US soybeans increased by 4% to 70%. The North American weather is good, and the potential impact of the trade war on exports continues to put pressure on US soybeans. However, the valuation of US soybeans is slightly low, and recent sales of old - crop soybeans and biodiesel policies support demand. The domestic soybean meal futures slightly rose on Monday. According to MYSTEEL statistics, last week, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 2.2954 million tons, and this week, it is expected to be 2.3803 million tons. Last week, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 886,200 (+64,000) tons, and the port soybean inventory was 8.231 (+0.343) million tons [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The import cost of foreign soybeans is currently oscillating. The domestic soybean meal market is in a situation where long - short factors are intertwined. It is recommended to try long positions at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end, waiting for progress in Sino - US tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5]. Fats and Oils - **Important Information**: High - frequency export data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1 - 10 are expected to increase by 5.31% - 12%. From July 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit increased by 35.43%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and the output increased by 35.28%. India's palm oil imports in June increased by 60% month - on - month, soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8%, and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8%. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1.549825 million tons, a 30.6% increase from May. Last week, the total inventory of the three major domestic oils was 2.298 (+0.04) million tons, mainly due to seasonal inventory accumulation of palm oil and soybean oil, and the year - on - year high inventory was due to high rapeseed oil inventory and slow destocking [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US biodiesel policy draft has exceeded expectations and supported the center of the oil market. If demand countries maintain normal imports from July - September and palm oil production in the producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable. There may be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upward space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level production increase expectation, high palm oil production in the producing areas, and the undetermined RVO rules. The market should be viewed as volatile [10]. Sugar - **Important Information**: On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,817 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan or 0.12% increase from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups were stable compared with the previous trading day. According to the latest data from the Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week of July 9, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 3.6855 million tons [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic sugar market is currently in the best import profit window in the past five years, and the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. Assuming that the external market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to continue to decline [13]. Cotton - **Important Information**: On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to oscillate. The closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,875 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan or 0.07% decrease from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (CCIndex 3128B) increased by 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. As of the week of July 11, the spinning mill's operating rate was 70.4%, a 0.7 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weaving mill's operating rate was 39.3%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 2.61 million tons, a 140,000 - ton decrease from the previous week [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Although the Sino - US trade agreement has not been finalized, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has rebounded to the level before the announcement of US equivalent tariffs, partially reflecting the positive expectation. In the short term, the cotton price is expected to be volatile, waiting for new drivers [16]. Egg - **Spot Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few increases. The average price in the main production areas rose by 0.01 yuan to 2.75 yuan/jin. The supply was stable, the downstream sales speed was normal, and the inventory in each link was generally small. Today, the egg price is expected to be stable, with a few fluctuations [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to continuous losses, the degree of production capacity clearance is still limited, and the large supply has postponed the seasonal rebound of the spot price. The short - term rebound space is restricted by inventory. Considering the high premium of the futures market and large positions, it is advisable to wait for a rebound to short [18]. Pig - **Spot Information**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price mainly declined. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.08 yuan to 14.65 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.17 yuan to 13.84 yuan/kg. The slaughter volume may remain stable, and the supply - demand situation is in a stalemate. Today, the pig price may be stable or decline [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Since late June, the spot price has significantly rebounded, accompanied by a reduction in slaughter volume and weight decline, indicating a seasonal supply reduction in the middle of the year. In the short term, there is support for the market, but in the medium term, there are pressures from supply postponement and hedging [21].

Core Viewpoint - Zhejiang Huahai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. is expected to report a significant decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, with estimates ranging from 374 million to 449 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of approximately 40% to 50% [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 374 million and 449 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 29.957 million to 37.457 million yuan compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The estimated net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 0 and 420.85 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of approximately 45% to 55% [2] Previous Year Performance Comparison - In the same period last year, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 748.566 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 764.8527 million yuan [2] - The earnings per share for the previous year was 0.52 yuan [2] Reasons for Performance Change - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to several factors: 1. Intensified competition in the raw material drug industry and the impact of domestic centralized procurement policies, leading to a decrease in sales revenue despite an increase in market share [2] 2. Increased investment in the research and development of innovative biological drugs, resulting in significantly higher R&D expenses [2] 3. Reduced foreign exchange gains due to currency fluctuations [2] - Non-operating gains and losses increased by approximately 50 million to 70 million yuan, mainly due to the increase in fair value changes of financial assets measured at fair value [2]

Core Viewpoint - The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, leading to a decline in U.S. soybean prices, with a focus on supply and demand dynamics in the domestic market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The supply of soybeans in China from May to July is sufficient, with oil mills operating at high levels compared to the same period last year [1] - The overall supply of soybean meal in the spot market is loose, while downstream replenishment has weakened, resulting in price fluctuations [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The reduction in U.S. soybean planting area is confirmed, and the market will focus on weather-related speculation moving forward [1] - The ongoing impact of U.S.-China tariffs will continue to evolve, leading to a period of observation in the market [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal fluctuated. On the cost side, the U.S. soybean planting area report had a neutral impact, and the quarterly inventory report had a bearish impact. The market focus shifted to the weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas, as well as export and crushing demand. Currently, the weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas is good, and as of July 1st, the drought in U.S. soybean - producing areas dropped to 8%. Additionally, U.S. soybean demand is performing well. As of June 26th, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans were 701,400 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous period. The U.S. Senate passed the 45Z tax bill, and the biodiesel policy is favorable for crushing demand, with U.S. soybean oil performing strongly. With these mixed factors, U.S. soybeans fluctuated upwards. - In China, recently, the arrival of soybeans at ports has been sufficient, the oil - mill operating rate has returned to normal levels, and the spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. At the same time, the downstream restocking has weakened recently, putting pressure on the spot price of soybean meal. Moreover, the soybean and soybean - meal inventories of oil mills have entered an accumulation cycle. Among them, the soybean inventory is 6.66 million tons, an increase of 280,000 tons compared to last week; the soybean - meal inventory is 590,000 tons, an increase of 180,000 tons compared to last week. - Strategy: With mixed factors, U.S. soybeans fluctuate upwards. From May to July in China, the soybean supply is sufficient, the oil - mill operating rate has reached a high level in the same period, and the overall spot supply of soybean meal is abundant. Currently, the downstream restocking has weakened, and the spot price fluctuates weakly. In the medium - to - long term, the reduction in the U.S. soybean planting area is confirmed. The subsequent market will focus on weather speculation, and the Sino - U.S. tariff issue will continue to ferment. It is advisable to wait and see for now [6]. 3) Summary by Directory Main Viewpoints - This week, soybean meal fluctuated. The cost - side factors of U.S. soybeans are mixed, with the market focusing on weather, export, and crushing demand. In China, the spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, and downstream restocking has weakened. In the medium - to - long term, factors such as the reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, weather speculation, and Sino - U.S. tariffs need to be considered. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Market Review - As of July 4th, the CBOT soybean closed at 1048.25 cents per bushel, up 23 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 2.24%. The M2509 soybean meal closed at 2954 yuan per ton, up 8 points from last week's close, a weekly increase of 0.27% [7]. Fundamental Analysis - **Cost - side**: The weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas will have sufficient rainfall and normal temperatures in the next two weeks. As of June 29th, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%. As of June 26th, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 seasons increased compared to the previous week. Brazil's soybean export in June is estimated to be 13.93 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year. As the sales pressure of Brazilian soybeans eases, the Brazilian real continues to appreciate, and the near - month soybean premium has gradually increased [12][24][30]. - **Supply**: In the 26th week of 2025 (June 21st - June 27th), the arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills totaled about 2.73 million tons [33]. - **Demand**: In the 27th week (June 28th - July 4th), the actual soybean - crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%, 53,500 tons higher than the estimate. The soybean - meal transaction volume increased to 828,700 tons, an increase of 18.23%, and the提货 volume increased to 938,400 tons, a decrease of 4.10% [12][33][35]. - **Inventory**: In the 26th week of 2025, the soybean and soybean - meal inventories of major domestic oil mills increased, while the unexecuted contracts decreased. The soybean inventory was 6.6587 million tons, an increase of 278,800 tons compared to last week, an increase of 4.37% and 17.68% year - on - year. The soybean - meal inventory was 691,600 tons, an increase of 182,700 tons compared to last week, an increase of 35.90% and a decrease of 34.32% year - on - year [42]. Spread Tracking The report mentions data sources for spread - tracking indicators such as the soybean - meal basis in Jiangsu, the oil - to - meal ratio, the soybean - meal 9 - 1 spread, and the soybean - meal to rapeseed - meal spread, but no specific spread - tracking data is provided [45][47][50][51].

农产品早报 2025-07-07 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 美豆周五休市，天气较好及全球丰产施压美豆，不过美豆估值略低，生物柴油政策支撑需求，整体维持 区间震荡趋势。周末国内豆粕现货稳定，华东报 2830 元/吨，油厂开机率仍较高。上周豆粕成交一般， 提货仍较好。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 233.22 万吨，本周预计压榨 235.17 万吨。饲料企业库 存天数为 7.91（+0.61）天。 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，天气有利。巴西方面，升贴水近期稳中小涨，叠加雷亚 尔升值，中美大豆关税仍未解除等支撑当地升贴水。总体来看，大豆进口成本暂稳为主，但也需要注意 贸易战若缓和或宏观影响带来的超预期下跌。 【交易策略】 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangj ...

Group 1: General Information - Research variety: Natural rubber [1] - Report date: June 30, 2025 [1] - Report period: Weekly [1] - Researcher: He Ning, Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - The upward driving force of natural rubber is insufficient, and it may remain weakly volatile in the short term [3] Group 3: Core View - The fundamentals of natural rubber do not have upward driving force, and the futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of factors such as Sino-US tariffs, upstream production, and midstream inventory on market sentiment and price trends [11][12] Group 4: Spot Market Analysis - In the domestic Yunnan production area, heavy rainfall last week affected the raw material procurement sentiment of concentrated latex, and the raw material supply was tight; in the Hainan production area, affected by the previous typhoon, the output speed was dragged down, with a total island collection of about 3,000 - 3,500 tons, still less than the same period in previous years. In the Thai production area, there was less disturbance last week [9][10] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of sample all-steel tire factories was 62.23%, and that of semi-steel tire factories was about 70.4%. The demand expectation was impacted by the macro tariff war, the order situation was average, and the capacity utilization rate of most tire factories fluctuated at a low level [10] - According to Longzhong Information statistics, the domestic natural rubber social inventory was about 1.286 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.8 million tons, an increase of 0.6%. The social inventory of dark rubber was about 780,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.3%. The social inventory of light rubber was about 506,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4%. There was a slight inventory accumulation [10] Group 5: Futures-Spot Combination Analysis - Last week, the spot market price of Thai mixed natural rubber fluctuated with the market. The monthly spread of Thai mixed spot showed a weak BACK structure, and the futures-spot spread widened. The spread between the RU main contract and Thai mixed spot fluctuated between 100 - 200 yuan/ton; the spread between the NR main contract * 1.13 and Thai mixed spot fell to about -20 yuan/ton. According to the past spread rules, there is no good opportunity for non-standard positive set building in the current market. Recently, the number of NR warehouse receipts has gradually increased, and the premium of standard rubber spot over mixed rubber spot has shrunk to par. In the Yunnan production area, the impact of rainfall decreased last week, and the spread between standard No. 2 and Thai mixed widened to about 700 yuan/ton [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - In the first half of the year, the supply and demand of steel were both strong, and the inventory continued to decline. However, the price was dragged down by the coking coal cost and continued to fall. Currently, the price shows signs of stabilizing and rebounding. The demand has weakened slightly on a month - on - month basis, mainly due to the high growth of steel exports [1][3]. - In June, the supply and demand of steel were close to balance, and the inventory stopped falling and remained flat. From July to August, the demand is expected to decline. In the medium term, steel maintains a pattern of weak cost support and poor demand expectations. With the resumption of production in coking coal production areas affecting the price to weaken again, it is recommended to try shorting at the current position or sell out - of - the - money call options [1][3]. Coke Industry - As of the previous trading day's close, the coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, while the spot market was stable. The fourth round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 23, with a cumulative reduction of 170/190 yuan/ton, and the market expectation has started to improve. The supply has tightened marginally due to environmental protection and maintenance. The demand has rigid support but the iron - water production is on a downward trend. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to hedge the Coke 2509 contract at high prices, stay on the sidelines for speculation, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. Coking Coal Industry - As of the previous trading day's close, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, while the spot market was slightly stronger. The domestic coking coal showed signs of stabilizing, with some coal mines having better sales. The supply has decreased due to environmental protection and accidents. The demand has some resilience, and the restocking demand shows signs of recovery. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral trading and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - **Rebar**: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3130 yuan/ton, 3160 yuan/ton, and 3180 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +50 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous values. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3020 yuan/ton, 2997 yuan/ton, and 3015 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 11 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3200 yuan/ton, 3110 yuan/ton, and 3180 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +10 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous values. The prices of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts were 3129 yuan/ton, 3123 yuan/ton, and 3128 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 3 yuan/ton, 2 yuan/ton, and 1 yuan/ton [1][3]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The billet price was 2900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu was 3270 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton, and the cost of converter rebar in Jiangsu was 2954 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar in East China, North China, and South China were 87 yuan/ton, 167 yuan/ton, and 157 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +18 yuan/ton, - 2 yuan/ton, and +8 yuan/ton. The profits of hot - rolled coil in East China, North China, and South China were 197 yuan/ton, 117 yuan/ton, and 197 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 8 yuan/ton, 8 yuan/ton, and 18 yuan/ton [1][3]. Production - The daily average iron - water output was 242.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons. The output of the five major steel products was 881.0 tons, an increase of 12.5 tons or 1.4%. The rebar output was 217.8 tons, an increase of 5.7 tons or 2.7%, including an increase in electric - arc furnace output of 1.6 tons or 6.8% and an increase in converter output of 4.1 tons or 2.2%. The hot - rolled coil output was 327.2 tons, an increase of 1.8 tons or 0.6% [1][3]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products was 1340.0 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons or 0.1%. The rebar inventory was 549.0 tons, a decrease of 2.1 tons or 0.4%. The hot - rolled coil inventory was 341.2 tons, an increase of 1.0 tons or 0.3% [1][3]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 10.5 tons, unchanged from the previous value. The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 879.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons or 0.5%. The apparent demand for rebar was 219.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons or 0.3%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 326.3 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons or 1.3% [1][3]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Grade - A wet - quenched coke in Shanxi was 1094 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of quasi - Grade - A wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.9%. The prices of the 09 and 01 contracts were 1404 yuan/ton and 1443 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 18 yuan/ton and 19 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The weekly output of coke from all - sample coking plants was 64.5 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.3%. The weekly output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.4 tons, unchanged [5]. Demand - The iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 242.3 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.0% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory was 940.9 tons, a decrease of 12.0 tons or 1.3%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants was 113.0 tons, a decrease of 2.6 tons or 2.2%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 627.8 tons, a decrease of 6.5 tons or 1.04%. The port inventory was 200.1 tons, a decrease of 3.0 tons or 1.5% [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The calculated supply - demand gap for coke was - 5.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 3.84% [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) increased by 10 yuan/ton or 1.1%, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) was 843 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton or 0.6%. The prices of the 09 and 01 contracts were 825 yuan/ton and 861 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 23 yuan/ton and 29 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The weekly output of raw coal from Fenwei sample coal mines was 852.9 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons or 0.4%. The weekly output of clean coal was 434.9 tons, a decrease of 2.3 tons or 0.5% [5]. Demand - The daily average output of coke from all - sample coking plants was 64.5 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons or 0.3%. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.4 tons, unchanged [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines was 223.3 tons, a decrease of 35.6 tons or 13.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 809.0 tons, an increase of 13.2 tons or 1.74%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 781.2 tons, an increase of 6.6 tons or 0.8%. The port inventory was 285.6 tons, a decrease of 17.7 tons or 5.8% [5].