Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Short - term long - allocation, medium - to - long - term short - allocation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating weakly [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 50: Rebounding [2] - CSI 300: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Upward [4] - CSI 1000: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Declining [4] - Gold: High - level oscillating [4] - Silver: Strong - side oscillating [4] - Pulp: Oscillating [6] - Logs: Oscillating [6] - Soybean oil: Oscillating [6] - Palm oil: Oscillating [6] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating [6] - Soybean meal: Rebounding [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebounding [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebounding [6] - Soybean No. 1: Rebounding [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: On - hold [8] - PTA: On - hold [9] - MEG: On - hold [9] - PR: On - hold [9] - PF: On - hold [9] Core Viewpoints - For the black industry, the previous policy - and sentiment - driven upward momentum is weakening, and the market is gradually returning to fundamentals. Each variety has different supply - demand situations and price trends [2] - In the financial market, with the phased results of Sino - US tariffs and the stabilization of the external market, the market risk - aversion sentiment has eased, and long positions in stock index futures can be held. Treasury bonds are in a narrow - range oscillation, and light long positions can be held [4] - In the precious metals market, the pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and various factors such as currency, finance, and geopolitics affect its price, which is expected to oscillate strongly [4] - In the light industry and agricultural products markets, various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, seasonality, and policies, and most are expected to oscillate [6][8] - In the polyester market, due to factors such as oil prices, raw material prices, and supply - demand, most products are in a state of waiting and watching [9] Summaries by Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The previous upward momentum is weakening, and it returns to fundamentals. In the short - term, it is supported by high steel mill profitability and new restocking demand, but port inventory is high. In the medium - to - long - term, domestic demand is weak, so a bearish view is taken [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The supply - demand of coking coal is loose, and the profit of coking enterprises has improved. Coke supply is increasing, and the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, following the trend of finished products [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The previous upward momentum is weakening, demand is falling back, and inventory may increase. Steel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [2] - **Glass**: Some production lines have resumed production, inventory has increased significantly, and demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long - term. It is in the transition from peak to off - season, and the focus is on downstream demand recovery [2] Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day's stock index performance varied, and funds flowed in and out of different sectors. With the phased results of Sino - US tariffs, long positions in stock index futures can be held [2][4] - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates are consolidating, and Treasury bonds are in a narrow - range oscillation. Long positions can be held lightly [4] - **Precious metals**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and various factors affect its price. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and silver is also expected to oscillate strongly [4] Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Pulp**: The cost price has decreased, the papermaking industry's profitability is low, and demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate [6] - **Logs**: Downstream demand is in the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - **Oils and fats**: Supply is abundant, it is the traditional consumption off - season, but pre - holiday stocking has improved spot consumption. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to weather and production - sales [6] - **Meal products**: The inventory of new US soybeans may be tighter, and domestic soybean supply is turning loose. Meal products are expected to rebound in the short - term, and attention should be paid to weather and logistics [6] - **Live pigs**: Supply is relatively tight, demand is in the off - season, and cost provides support. Prices are expected to oscillate [8] - **Rubber**: Supply is relatively stable, demand is recovering, inventory accumulation is slowing down, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly [8] Polyester Market - **PX**: Oil prices are weakly consolidating, PX load is oscillating downwards, and it is expected to fluctuate with oil prices [8] - **PTA**: The possible acceleration of Russia - Ukraine peace talks may suppress oil price rebounds, and it is in a state of supply - demand destocking, mainly affected by raw material prices [9] - **MEG**: The supply - demand is not bad, but the macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the disk fluctuates widely [9] - **PR**: Oil price callback weakens cost support, and the market may adjust weakly and steadily [9] - **PF**: Downstream orders are insufficient, and cost support is unstable. The market is expected to be weakly sorted [9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market and the impact of US-China trade relations on it, along with the implications of interest rate policies by the central bank. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Outlook** The central bank is not expected to tighten monetary policy significantly in the short term due to the lack of consistent improvement in the economic fundamentals. The rise in funding rates in May is seen as normal, with current overnight rates remaining relatively loose, supporting a bullish stance on the bond market [1][3][2]. 2. **US-China Tariff Levels** It is anticipated that the US-China tariff levels will stabilize between 40-50% in 2025. The long-term decoupling trend in key sectors such as semiconductors and shipping remains unchanged, driven by the inadequacy of the US supply chain [4][5]. 3. **Impact of Tariffs on Corporate Profitability** The average profit margins for foreign trade enterprises are low, with B2B at approximately 10% and B2C at around 20%. An additional 10% tariff could lead many companies to operate at a loss. Therefore, maintaining the current tariff levels is deemed reasonable [6]. 4. **Ten-Year Treasury Yield Trends** The current yield on ten-year treasury bonds is close to 1.65%. A bearish outlook to 1.7% is considered neutral, and any adjustments are viewed as buying opportunities. The overall direction remains bullish for the bond market, even amidst short-term fluctuations [7][1]. 5. **Structural Tariffs and Industry Impact** Future total tariff levels are expected to remain stable, with a focus on structural tariffs such as the 232 and 301 trade laws, which could increase tariffs by 25% or more for specific industries. The relationship between the US and China is not expected to improve significantly [8]. 6. **Shift of Production Capacity Overseas** Companies are increasingly relocating production capacity overseas, despite lower labor costs abroad. The higher efficiency of domestic production and infrastructure leads to lower overall production costs domestically. This shift negatively impacts domestic employment and fiscal revenue [10]. 7. **Export Trends and Market Sentiment** Recent export data indicates a rise in the growth rate of high-value products, while labor-intensive products lag. This trend reflects a shift towards capital goods and raw materials in exports, which may pressure domestic employment and fiscal income [11]. 8. **Rising Overseas Shipping Costs** The increase in overseas shipping costs is attributed to shipping companies adjusting capacity and recovering demand in the US market. It is expected that shipping prices will remain high for the next four weeks before potentially declining [12]. 9. **Banking Sector and Interest Rate Adjustments** Large banks may lower deposit rates, which could benefit the bond market if the adjustments are significant (20-40 basis points). This would reduce the cost pressure on banks' liabilities, making bond purchases more attractive [17]. Other Important Insights - The current 90-day exemption period has led companies to prioritize existing orders, creating a cautious sentiment towards new orders due to potential tariff changes post-exemption [9]. - The central bank will only consider tightening monetary policy when there is a consistent improvement in financial data over at least a month [14]. - Current interest rates are difficult to lower due to market perceptions of instability, which affects bond market sentiment [15]. - Banks are not expected to engage in large-scale profit-taking in the second quarter, focusing instead on routine seasonal operations [16].

Trade Relations and Economic Indicators - The significant reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. has improved trade expectations, with the U.S. comprehensive tariff rate on China remaining around 40%[2] - April export data exceeded expectations, but PPI showed a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, indicating underlying economic weaknesses[2] - New loan issuance in April was below expectations, with cumulative new household loans in the first four months at a near ten-year low[2] Market Trends and Monetary Policy - The bond market has entered a defensive phase, with yields generally rising; the 10-year government bond yield increased to 1.68% (+5bp) and the 30-year yield to 1.88% (+4bp)[11] - Market sentiment is shifting towards a "trend over volatility" approach, delaying expectations for further interest rate cuts until after Q2 data is released in July[2] - The likelihood of a return to a tight funding environment similar to Q1 is low due to several factors, including stable bank liabilities and a supportive central bank stance[3] Investment Strategy and Bond Valuation - The bond market is expected to experience a period of volatility, with the 10-year yield fluctuating between 1.6% and 1.7%[26] - In the short-term, the focus should be on evaluating price-performance ratios, particularly in the 1-3 year bond segment, which currently shows a high liquidity advantage[26] - For mid-term bonds (5-7 years), the pricing uncertainty is moderate, while the 10-year agricultural development bonds offer attractive spreads[6] Financial Products and Risk Assessment - The total scale of wealth management products decreased by 771 billion yuan to 31.49 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal decline[32] - The proportion of wealth management products with negative returns has slightly increased to 1.96%, but remains relatively low compared to historical levels[38] - The overall performance of wealth management products not meeting expectations has decreased to 17.4%, indicating improved performance across various institutions[44]

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20210，基差-50，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周减6192吨至169665吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，中美关税传来利好，铝价偏强运行。 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、铝棒库存维持历史高位，消费不佳。 2、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 3、铝材出口退税 ...

Macro Insights - US inflation continues to decline, with April CPI data showing a drop below expectations, indicating a weakening inflation risk due to tariff adjustments [3] - The reduction in tariffs suggests a decrease in recession risks for the US, allowing the Federal Reserve to adopt a more patient approach in observing economic changes [3] Industry Insights - MXD6, a high-performance engineering plastic, is experiencing high demand for lightweight and barrier packaging materials, indicating a broad market potential [4] - The company has been a leader in ion exchange and adsorption resin for nearly 30 years, focusing on R&D, production, and sales [5] - The company has achieved the top market share in the ADAS integrated machine market in 2024, with expectations for hardware shipments to exceed ten million units in 2025 [8] Company Performance - JD Group reported a 1Q2025 revenue of 301.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and a GAAP net profit of 10.89 billion yuan, up 52.7% year-on-year [9] - The company also reported a Non-GAAP net profit of 12.76 billion yuan, reflecting a 43.4% year-on-year growth [9]

当前的偏鹰基调转为鸽派，并开启新一轮的降息周期，中长期对于黄金来讲属于利多因素，短期内金价受 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 中美关税乐观预期影响或相对承压，回调压力仍存。白银方面，受全球贸易格局缓和预期提振，白银的工 业和商品属性的提振支撑银价，短期内金银比有望阶段性回落，但伴随全球央行购金需求稳步增长，金银 免责声明 | | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-05-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 761.72 | -5.96 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8195 | -24 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 214778 | 197 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 280768 | 92030 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 108018 | 1618 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 136345 | -7331 ...

中美关税联合声明公布！黄金日内跌幅100美元！欧美盘应看到哪些位置？交易学院正在直播，点击立 即观看>>> 相关链接 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate within a wide range, with the Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract likely to remain around the 20,000 level in the short term. The market anticipates that the US may choose to ease policies and tariff confrontation with China before the US debt matures in June, which will limit the downside of aluminum prices. However, the transmission of domestic favorable policies takes time, and the market has strong expectations of weakening demand due to the change of seasons, the end of PV rush installation, and the decline in export orders, which will reduce the upward momentum of aluminum prices [5][13]. - The supply of bauxite is expected to increase in May, and the market may achieve a re - balance of supply and demand after July, with the price center expected to stabilize in the range of $70 - 75 per dry ton. The alumina market has a shortage due to maintenance, and the spot supply is tight, with a possible increase in spot prices in the future. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9%, and the import of electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical loss, but the export volume is expected to gradually recover [10]. - The operating rates of different downstream aluminum processing sectors show a differentiated pattern. The overall operating rate of downstream processing enterprises is expected to rise slightly next week. The inventory of aluminum ingots may continue to rise in May, while the destocking speed of aluminum rods has significantly narrowed [12][25][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 19,000 - 21,000. The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract may have a slight rebound next week and generally remain around the 20,000 level [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy: It was expected that Shanghai Aluminum would remain around the 20,000 level, and it was recommended to wait and see [7]. - This week's strategy: It is expected to continue to consolidate around the 20,000 level. The Shanghai Aluminum 2506 contract is temporarily seen in the range of 19,500 - 20,000, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [8]. - Hedging suggestions for spot enterprises: It is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [9]. Overall Viewpoint Bauxite Market - The supply of domestic bauxite has slightly improved compared with the previous period, and the overall supply of imported bauxite can basically meet the downstream demand. The bauxite supply is expected to continue to increase in May, and the market may achieve supply - demand re - balance after July, with the price center stabilizing at $70 - 75 per dry ton [10]. Alumina Market - As of May 8, the built - in alumina production capacity in China was 110.6 million tons, the operating capacity was 86.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 78.25%. Due to maintenance and production cuts of alumina enterprises, the market spot supply is tight, and there may be a rise in spot prices [10]. Production of Electrolytic Aluminum - The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry this week was 43.835 million tons, remaining stable compared with last week. The global primary aluminum production growth rate is only 1.9% [10]. Import and Export - The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,500 yuan per ton, showing a slight expansion in the past two weeks. The export volume in May is expected to decline month - on - month, but it is expected to gradually recover through supply chain reconstruction and tariff cost sharing mechanisms [10]. Demand - The operating rates of different downstream sectors show a differentiated pattern. The operating rate of profiles decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%; the operating rate of aluminum plate, strip and foil decreased; the operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.2 percentage points to 55.2%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum increased by 2.5 percentage points to 55.0% [12]. Inventory - The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 619,000 tons, an increase of about 1% compared with last week and about 20% lower than the same period last year. The inventory may continue to rise in May. The inventory of aluminum rods is 150,100 tons, a decrease of about 2% compared with last week and about 27% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been falling slightly since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990, but there may be an inflection point [12]. Profit and Market Expectation - The average cash cost of the domestic alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan per ton, and the profit is about 300 yuan per ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,100 yuan per ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,500 yuan per ton. The aluminum price is expected to rise slightly next week, with an average price of about 19,700 [13]. Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of most aluminum - related products have changed. For example, the price of bauxite has generally declined, the price of alumina in Henan has increased slightly, and the price of electrolytic aluminum has decreased [14]. Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - The domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for the fourth consecutive week, the alumina inventory has slightly decreased, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased, the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory has continued to decline slightly [16][18]. Supply - Demand Situation - The profits of domestic alumina and electrolytic aluminum industries this week are about 300 yuan per ton and 2,500 yuan per ton respectively. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,500 yuan per ton [20]. - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%, showing a differentiated pattern. The operating rate is expected to rise slightly next week [25][26]. Futures - Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai Aluminum futures is neutral. The market is bearish on the demand in the second and third quarters but expects a rebound in demand at the end of the year [32]. Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) is at a discount of $9.4 per ton. The A00 aluminum ingot spot is at a discount of 0 yuan per ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 3,190 yuan per ton [34][36]. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of LME aluminum has slightly rebounded, and the short - term overseas aluminum price is under pressure. The net long position of Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum has also slightly increased, and the short - term market is expected to be volatile [40][43].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年5月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美互加大额关税。3月纺织业景气指数回升至52.47%荣枯线上方。 USDA:4月消费调低，库存增加，略偏空。ICAC:4月报预测环比上月增加产量，消费不 变，期末库存略增，略偏空。海关：3月纺织品服装出口同比增12.4%。3月份我国棉花 进口7万吨，同比减少81.4%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比减少31%。农村部4月24/25年度： 产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14183，基差1433（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存 ...

Group 1 - Company bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.06% to a latest price of 105.57 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 1.15% over the past six months as of April 29, 2025 [3] - The liquidity of the company bond ETF showed a turnover of 0.85% with a transaction volume of 113 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past month was 1.802 billion yuan [3] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 13.258 billion yuan, with the latest share count at 12.6 million, marking a new high in the past month [3] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI data from Huaxi Securities on April 30 and the central bank's announcement of a buyout repurchase scale may act as catalysts for market volatility [4] - High-frequency data suggests that enterprises may be transitioning from "grabbing exports" to "grabbing trans-exports," indicating a potential for manufacturing sentiment to exceed market expectations [4] Group 3 - The national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) showed a mixed market with a latest quote of 117.39 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.04% over the past month as of April 29, 2025 [7] - The liquidity of the national debt ETF indicated a turnover of 3.77% with a transaction volume of approximately 55.33 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past week was 470 million yuan [7] - The latest scale of the national debt ETF reached 1.47 billion yuan, marking a new high in the past three months [7] Group 4 - The national development bond ETF (159651) increased by 0.03% to a latest price of 105.91 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 2.36% over the past year as of April 29, 2025 [10] - The liquidity of the national development bond ETF showed a turnover of 3.98% with a transaction volume of approximately 54.41 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past year was 617 million yuan [10] - The national development bond ETF experienced a significant growth in scale by 388 million yuan over the past six months, ranking in the top half among comparable funds [10] Group 5 - The three main members of the Ping An Fund bond ETF include the company bond ETF (511030), national development bond ETF (159651), and national debt ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020), covering various types of bonds to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [11]