Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core Viewpoints - The potential meeting between Chinese and US leaders has led to a positive macro sentiment, driving up the market, which aligns with the daily report's rebound expectation. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [1]. - In the short - term, the main contract is weak while the far - month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent trend. For the arbitrage strategy, due to the volatile international situation, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see or participate lightly [1]. Content Summary by Related Information Freight Index - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index SCFIS (European route) was 1312.71 points, up 15.1% from the previous period, and the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.32 points, up 28.2% from the previous period. On October 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index NCFI (composite index) was 977.21 points, up 2.17% from the previous period, the NCFI (European route) was 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period, and the NCFI (US West route) was 1293.75 points, up 3.13% from the previous period [1]. - On October 24, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI announced price was 1403.46 points, up 93.14 points from the previous period. The SCFI European route price was 1246 USD/TEU, up 8.8% from the previous period, and the SCFI US West route was 2153 USD/FEU, up 11.2% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index CCFI (composite index) was 992.74 points, up 2.0% from the previous period, the CCFI (European route) was 1293.12 points, up 2.0% from the previous period, and the CCFI (US West route) was 736.23 points, up 1.5% from the previous period [1]. PMI Data - The eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The service PMI preliminary value rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The eurozone's September composite PMI preliminary value was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The eurozone's September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [1]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an accelerated overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and business activities [1]. - The preliminary value of the US September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [1]. Market and Contract Information - On October 29, the main contract 2512 closed at 1871.0, with a涨幅 of 5.08%, a trading volume of 34,500 lots, and an open interest of 31,900 lots, an increase of 3006 lots from the previous day [1]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [1]. Other Information - The Israel Defense Forces announced on October 29 that they had started to re - implement the Gaza cease - fire agreement after a series of strikes on "terrorist targets" and "terrorists". China's President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and issues of common concern [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Short - term, synthetic rubber (especially cis - butadiene rubber) is expected to form a wide - range volatile pattern of capital games during the day, and the medium - term price center will gradually decline. The raw material end has weakened significantly, leading to the gradual repair of production profits. The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber has decreased, while the inventory of butadiene in East China ports has increased. The macro events in the short - term have a greater impact on the equity market [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: For the 12 - contract of cis - butadiene rubber, the daily closing price was 10,795 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 195,650 lots, an increase of 83,214 lots; the open interest was 52,216 lots, an increase of 3,565 lots; the trading volume was 1041.436 million yuan, an increase of 430.208 million yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract was 105 yuan, down 90 yuan; the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 (private) was 45 yuan, down 15 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of North China, East China, and South China cis - butadiene rubber (private) decreased by 150 yuan; the market price of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 150 yuan and 200 yuan respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 300 yuan [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.8996%, an increase of 1.74%. The theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber was 10,637 yuan/ton, a decrease of 309 yuan; the profit was 363 yuan/ton, an increase of 309 yuan [1]. [Industry News] - **Cis - butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of October 29, 2025, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 30,900 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 6.90%. Some production enterprises stopped or planned to stop production, and the production profit was gradually repaired, driving some private enterprises to sell at low prices. The inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises decreased significantly [2]. - **Butadiene Inventory**: As of October 29, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 32,000 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons compared with the previous period. There were imported ships arriving at the port during the cycle, and the inventory of some trading volumes increased slightly, resulting in a significant increase in the sample port inventory. Merchants expect the import volume in November to be abundant [2][3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On October 29, 2025, the A - share market had a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 4000 points, and trading volume approaching 2.3 trillion yuan [1]. - Multiple commodity futures showed different trends. For example, the weighted indices of coke and coking coal strengthened, while palm oil hit a three - month low [2][3][6]. - The supply and demand situation of various commodities is complex. For instance, the sugar market is affected by increased supply and reduced demand expectations, and the pig market has a supply - surplus situation that is difficult to reverse in the short term [4][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On October 29, the major A - share indices rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.70% to 4016.33, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.95% to 13691.38, the ChiNext Index rose 2.93% to 3324.27, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index rose 8.41% to 1573.71. The trading volume of the three markets was nearly 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of over 100 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4747.84, up 55.87 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On October 29, the weighted index of coke rebounded strongly, closing at 1828.6, up 36.7; the weighted index of coking coal trended stronger in shock, closing at 1318.5 yuan, up 47.0 [2][3]. - For coke, the second - round price increase was implemented. The iron - making output decreased seasonally, and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke in 30 independent coking plants was - 41 yuan/ton. For coking coal, the "West - to - East Coal Transport" artery, the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, completed its autumn maintenance. The mine - end operating rate dropped due to safety inspections, the inventory was neutral, and the operating rate of coal - washing plants increased for two consecutive weeks [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Six different institutions expect Brazil's sugar production in the 2026/27 season to reach 4,228 million tons, higher than 4,052 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The US sugar futures fell on Tuesday due to concerns about increased supply and reduced demand. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated and closed slightly higher on Wednesday [4]. Rubber - Affected by heavy rainfall in central Vietnam, the spot quotes in Southeast Asia have been rising slightly in shock recently. Supported by factors such as strong EU passenger car sales data in September and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the Shanghai rubber futures rose significantly on Wednesday [5]. Palm Oil - On October 29, palm oil broke through the lower edge of the range, hitting a three - month low. The main contract P2601 closed at 8842, down 1.29% from the previous day. The benchmark palm oil contract for January delivery on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed down 65 ringgit, or 1.51%, at 4,252 ringgit per metric ton [6]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on October 29, CBOT soybean futures oscillated. The market expects Sino - US soybean trade to resume. Brazilian soybean planting rate reached 36% as of October 23, and the expected output is 1.767 billion tons. Domestically, the M2601 main contract closed at 2969 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 105.2 million tons, up 13.48% from the previous week [7]. Live Pigs - On October 29, the LH2601 main contract closed at 12185 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The widening of the price difference between standard and fat pigs attracted second - round fattening, providing short - term support for pig prices. However, the oversupply situation in October has not changed fundamentally, and the rebound space of pig prices is limited [8]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper trended stronger in shock. Supported by China's "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, the easing of Sino - US trade tariffs, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the market risk appetite increased. Fundamentally, Indonesia's mine accident and the shutdown of overseas mines led to a tight supply - demand balance, and the ICSG predicted a shortage of refined copper in 2026 [8]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13650 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 11 lots compared to the previous day. The prices of machine - picked cotton in southern and northern Xinjiang were in the ranges of 6.3 - 6.5 yuan/kg and 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg respectively, and the cotton harvest progress in Xinjiang was faster than in previous years [9]. Iron Ore - On October 29, the 2601 main contract of iron ore rose 1.96% to 804.5 yuan. The shipment volume of iron ore increased slightly, and the domestic arrival volume decreased significantly for two consecutive periods. The iron - making output continued to decline, but the positive macro - atmosphere at home and abroad boosted market sentiment, and the iron ore price oscillated in the short term [9]. Asphalt - On October 29, the 2601 main contract of asphalt closed down 0.21% to 3274 yuan. The asphalt supply decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. As the temperature dropped, the demand entered the end of the peak season, and the asphalt price followed the cost - end crude oil price and oscillated in the short term [10][11]. Logs - On October 29, the 2601 contract of logs opened at 786.5, with a minimum of 786, a maximum of 790.5, and closed at 787, with an increase of 41 lots in positions. The spot prices of logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and the market is gradually reducing inventory [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market is in a phase of correction due to reduced short - term safe - haven premiums for gold and strong market wait - and - see sentiment, but there is still medium - term buying support [3]. - The copper market is expected to maintain high - level oscillatory consolidation in the short term, as the conversion of market attention into actual transactions and macro - level support are needed for price increases [15]. - The aluminum market has seen strong price performance due to the resonance of macro and fundamental factors. Future price trends depend on the Fed's interest rate decision and potential capital movements [36]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in China compared to overseas. Low inventory supports prices, and short - term attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and macro - level upward drivers [59]. - The nickel industry has different trends for different products. Nickel ore prices may continue to be strong, nickel iron prices have declined, and stainless steel may experience wide - range oscillations [74]. - The tin market is expected to remain strong in the short term as supply is weaker than demand and supply - side disruptions are difficult to resolve quickly [89]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to see increased demand, which may support prices. If the supply of lithium concentrate cannot be replenished, prices may rise [102]. - The industrial silicon market may see a slight increase in price as production cuts are expected during the dry season, but price increases are limited by inventory. The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental outlook [113]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price and Market Conditions**: The short - term safe - haven premium of gold is weakened, and the precious metals market is in a correction phase. The实物贴水 has expanded to 6.18 yuan/gram, but there is still medium - term buying support [3]. - **Data Charts**: Include SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, price ratios, and inventory data [4][11][14]. Copper - **Market Outlook**: The spot price and premium are weak, and the market needs to convert attention into actual transactions and have macro - level support for price increases. It will maintain high - level oscillatory consolidation in the short term [15]. - **Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai and London copper futures and spot, price changes, and inventory data are provided [16][22][32]. Aluminum - **Market Analysis**: Macro policies are the core factors affecting the price of Shanghai aluminum. The domestic fundamentals are stable, and overseas supply disruptions have driven up prices. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy has strong support [36]. - **Data**: Include the latest prices of aluminum and alumina futures and spot, price differences, and inventory data [37][46][53]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand situation has not changed significantly. The domestic supply is stable, and overseas production has been cut. The price difference has widened, and low inventory supports prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the export window and macro - level drivers [59]. - **Data**: Provide the latest prices of zinc futures and spot, price changes, and inventory data [60][67][71]. Nickel - **Industry Trends**: Nickel ore prices may continue to be strong due to new regulations and high downstream demand. Nickel iron prices have declined, and stainless steel may experience wide - range oscillations [74]. - **Data**: Include the latest prices of nickel and stainless steel futures, trading volume, open interest, and inventory data [75]. Tin - **Market Forecast**: The supply of tin is weaker than demand, and short - term supply - side disruptions are difficult to resolve. The Shanghai tin market is expected to remain strong, with support around 276,000 yuan [89]. - **Data**: Provide the latest prices of tin futures and spot, price changes, and inventory data [90][92][97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Market demand is good, and inventory is decreasing. If the supply of lithium concentrate cannot be replenished, prices may rise [102]. - **Data**: Include the latest prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot, price differences, and inventory data [103][107][111]. Silicon Industry - **Market Analysis**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season, but are limited by inventory. The polysilicon market has a weak fundamental outlook [113]. - **Data**: Provide the latest prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon, price differences, and inventory data [114][123][142].

Group 1 - Treasury Secretary Scott Besson has confirmed five finalists to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with President Trump expected to make a decision by year-end [1] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and the state of the labor market, rather than the selection of the new Fed Chair [2][3] - There is an expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates this week, with attention on guidance for future meetings, particularly December [5][6] Group 2 - The labor market is showing signs of slowing, but consumer data remains strong, indicating resilience in the economy [8][10] - Earnings reports from companies are generally positive, with net profit margins for S&P 500 companies above their five-year average for six consecutive quarters [21][22] - There is optimism regarding job growth and capital expenditure outlook, with expectations for a broadening of economic activity beyond just healthcare and AI sectors [15][31] Group 3 - The US and China are reportedly moving towards a framework for a potential trade agreement, which could positively impact both economies [17][20] - Corporate earnings season is ongoing, with high expectations for tech earnings and a focus on how markets will respond to these results [26][30] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is anticipated, with discussions around the end of quantitative tightening gaining traction [32][35]

Core Points - The initial consensus reached between China and the U.S. on trade issues after intense negotiations indicates a shift in the dynamics of their trade relationship [1][3] - The U.S. has focused on key areas such as rare earth materials, soybeans, and fentanyl, aiming to pressure China into concessions [3][5] - The recent negotiations in Kuala Lumpur have reportedly made substantial progress, with indications that the U.S. will not impose new high tariffs on Chinese exports [5][7] Group 1 - The U.S. displayed a strong attitude during negotiations, with threats of imposing tariffs as high as 500% on Chinese goods, which have now been retracted [1][5] - The discussions included critical topics such as shipping fees under Section 301, extension of tariff suspension periods, and enforcement cooperation, suggesting a comprehensive approach to resolving trade tensions [5][7] - The acknowledgment from U.S. Treasury Secretary that no new 100% tariffs will be considered reflects significant progress in the negotiations [5][7] Group 2 - The trade conflict has broader implications, as high tariffs not only affect China but also have detrimental effects on the U.S. economy, impacting American households [7][8] - China has alternative export channels, such as the China-Europe Railway Express, which can alleviate export pressures, while the U.S. remains heavily reliant on Chinese manufacturing for consumer goods [8] - The ongoing negotiations highlight the importance of cooperation between the two nations, suggesting that mutual benefits can be achieved through collaboration rather than conflict [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Short - term bearish consolidation**: This view applies to soybean meal, rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, rumors of the second shipment of Argentine soybean meal re - entering the Chinese market and Trump's remarks have dampened market sentiment. However, due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the spot market is conservative. Brazilian rainfall outlook supports price stabilization, but limited upside due to Sino - US negotiation uncertainties. Rapeseed meal has mixed factors due to trade policies and high inventory, and it follows the soybean meal trend [1]. - **Short - term decline**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to decline in the short term. Palm oil has a high probability of inventory accumulation in October and weak post - festival demand. Soybean oil is pressured by US soybean harvest and has sufficient short - term supply. Rapeseed oil is affected by increased imports and the possible easing of Sino - Canadian relations [1]. - **Upside resistance**: Cotton faces upside resistance. International supply is pressured by new cotton harvests in the Northern Hemisphere, while Indian MSP provides some support. In China, new cotton is almost harvested, inventory is restored, but downstream demand is weak [1]. - **Rebound and short - selling**: This is applicable to jujube and live pigs. Jujube's fundamentals are expected to be loose, and short - term suggestions involve reducing short positions as the price approaches the cost. Live pigs have increasing supply pressure in Q4, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market situation**: As of October 24, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased, while oil - mill soybean and soybean meal inventories changed. Spot market supply is sufficient, but oil - mill profit is in the red, leading to strong price - holding intentions and weak downstream replenishment [3]. - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract) is 2932 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. Spot prices vary, and various spreads and basis values have changed [2]. - **Outlook**: Short - term bearish consolidation, with price supported by Brazilian rainfall but limited upside due to Sino - US negotiation uncertainties [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market situation**: As of October 24, coastal oil - mill菜籽 inventory was flat, rapeseed meal inventory decreased, and unexecuted contracts increased. International supply may rise, and domestic demand is in the off - season [6]. - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract) is 2335 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. Spot prices and various spreads and basis values have changed [5]. - **Outlook**: Short - term bearish consolidation, following the soybean meal trend due to lack of new drivers [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market situation**: As of October 24, 2025, national commercial inventory increased. October production may rise, and export performance is average, with a high probability of inventory accumulation [8]. - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract) is 9100 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. Various price indices, trading volumes, and spreads have changed [7]. - **Outlook**: Short - term decline, with a weak and volatile market due to post - festival weak demand [1][8]. Cotton - **Market situation**: In the US, new cotton harvest is over 70%. In Brazil, new cotton processing and inspection are over 70%, and exports have accelerated. In China, new cotton is almost harvested, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak [10][11][12]. - **Price data**: Futures prices of different contracts and spot prices have changed. Basis, spreads, and other indicators have also seen fluctuations [9]. - **Outlook**: Upside resistance, with ICE market in a weak and volatile range, and domestic market facing resistance due to weak demand [1][12]. Jujube - **Market situation**: Some jujube areas have started harvesting, and inventory has increased seasonally. New jujube purchase prices are concentrated in a certain range, and the consumer market is in a wait - and - see state [15]. - **Price data**: Futures prices of different contracts and spot prices have changed. Basis, spreads, and other indicators have also fluctuated [13]. - **Outlook**: Rebound and short - selling, with loose fundamentals and suggestions to reduce short positions as the price approaches the cost [1][16]. Live Pigs - **Market situation**: In the short term, October planned slaughter may increase, and second - fattening has increased in some areas. Mid - term, Q4 - Q1 2026 slaughter may rise. Long - term, sow inventory decline is not significant. Demand may increase with the cooling weather [19][20]. - **Price data**: Futures prices of different contracts and spot prices have changed. Various indicators such as basis, spreads, inventory, and profit have also fluctuated [17]. - **Outlook**: Rebound and short - selling, with increasing supply pressure in Q4 and a suggestion to short - sell on rebounds [1][20].

换资前言： 空单策略： 市场瞬息万变，顺势而为，才是王道，趋势来了就是干，不要逆势操作，免得难受煎熬。交易切记不要 意气用事，市场专治各种不服，所以一定不要扛单，相信很多人都深有体会，越抗越慌，浮亏不断放 大，搞的吃不好睡不好，还白白错过很多机会，如果你也有这些烦恼，那不妨跟上金晟富的节奏来试 试，看看能否让你豁然开朗。如果你需要帮助，本人金晟富会一直在这儿，但如果你连手都不伸，我又 怎么能帮到你呢？ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周二（10月28日）亚市早盘，金价小幅回升，现货黄金现报4019.12美元/盎司。因中美贸易会谈有进 展，降低对黄金一部分的避险需求，黄金周一(10月26日)暴跌并失守4000美元/盎司。本周的美联储利率 决策则是投资者等待的另一个重点。现货黄金周一收盘暴跌131.28美元，跌幅3.19%，报3981.37美元/ 盎司；金价盘中曾跌至3970.81美元/盎司，是10月10日以来最低。潜在的中美贸易协议，预告对黄金等 避险资产的需求将减少。两大经济体的谈判代表在马来西亚举行经贸谈判后，于周日提出一份框架协 议，包括美国暂停加税。因中美贸易战紧张局势缓解， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro conditions are improving, and the strengthening of external vegetable oils is expected to drive the collective rise of domestic vegetable oils. It is recommended to exit previous short positions and enter long positions. For double - meal products, due to the expected increase in import costs and the rise of US soybeans, double - meal will continue to rebound. Hold existing long positions, do not chase new highs, and wait for short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 27, the vegetable oil market showed a differentiated trend. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil were strong due to Sino - US easing, while palm oil was still under pressure due to poor export data. The main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8,234 yuan/ton, up 0.49% day - on - day, with an increase of 19,494 lots. The main palm oil contract P2601 closed at 9,100 yuan/ton, down 0.24% day - on - day, with an increase of 6,799 lots. The main rapeseed oil contract OI2601 closed at 9,748 yuan/ton, down 0.13% day - on - day, with a decrease of 7,617 lots [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On October 27, Sino - US economic and trade teams had their fifth face - to - face consultation since May. The two sides reached a "very substantial framework agreement", and the US "no longer considers" imposing 100% tariffs on China. International oil prices closed slightly lower on October 27. Brazil may not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% by March 2026. If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons. Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 25 decreased by 0.4% compared with the same period in September. From October 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.71% month - on - month. As of the 43rd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils increased by 2.90% week - on - week [1][2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Internationally, the continuous rise of crude oil and the Sino - US trade easing are expected to boost vegetable oils. The US - China negotiation results led to a jump in US soybeans and a rebound in US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil is still under pressure due to increased production and decreased exports, but the decline is expected to be limited. Domestically, the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate has rebounded, and consumption is in a seasonal off - season. Macro factors are the main influencing factors [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, enter new long positions. The pressure and support levels for different contracts are provided, such as the Y2601 contract with a pressure level of 9,000 and a support level of 8,000 [2] 3.2 Double - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On October 23, domestic oilseeds fell, and the "buy oil, sell meal" arbitrage was unlocked, which supported the double - meal market. The main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at a certain price, down 0.03% day - on - day, with a decrease of 2,932 lots. The main rapeseed meal contract RM2601 closed at a certain price, up 0.43% day - on - day, with a decrease of 2,653 lots [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation reached a "very substantial framework agreement", and the US "no longer considers" imposing 100% tariffs on China. As of October 20, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in Brazil's Parana state was 52%, and the excellent - good rate was 98%. In September, China's soybean imports reached 1.2869 billion tons, a record high. The Trump administration may announce a plan to rescue US farmers with an initial expenditure of up to $15 billion. As of the end of October, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 102.2 million tons. As of the 43rd week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory decreased by 312,000 tons week - on - week, and the domestic soybean meal inventory increased by 13.48% week - on - week [2][3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - The market expects the resumption of US soybean exports to China, driving up US soybeans. The domestic fourth - quarter soybean supply is not in short - supply, but the procurement of Brazilian soybeans is slow due to poor crushing margins. The domestic rapeseed raw material inventory has dropped to zero, causing a sharp rise in the rapeseed meal futures market. Overall, due to the improving macro environment and the rise of US soybeans, the double - meal market continues to rebound [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, participate in short - term long positions cautiously as the rebound space is limited. Wait for short - selling opportunities in the medium - to - long term. Provide pressure and support levels for different contracts, such as the M2601 contract with a pressure level of 3,250 and a support level of 2,685 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The easing of Sino - US trade concerns and positive macro - expectations have led to a significant strengthening of base metals. In the short and medium term, supply - side disturbances and improved macro - expectations are the main drivers. Copper leads the rise of base metals, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of aluminum ingot price catch - up. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin persist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand, so the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: The restart of Sino - US trade negotiations and the release of the Fourth Plenary Session communiqué have improved market sentiment. Supply disturbances continue to increase, with reduced copper ore supply and higher scrap copper recycling costs. Although it is the peak demand season, high prices have curbed demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8][9]. - **Alumina**: There are still fundamental pressures, but the valuation has entered a low - level range. The price is expected to fluctuate. The spot price has shown some declines in different regions [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic and overseas macro - environment is positive. The domestic replacement capacity is being put into production, and there are marginal disturbances in overseas supply. The traditional peak season is ending, and terminal demand is stable. With the copper - aluminum ratio above 4.0, the short - term price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and the medium - term price center may rise [12][13]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. There are small - scale production cuts on the supply side, and demand has marginally improved. The short - term price is expected to remain high and volatile, and the medium - term price is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. - **Zinc**: The macro - environment is optimistic, but the supply is loose in the short term, and the demand is entering the off - season. The short - term price may be volatile at a high level, and there is still room for decline in the long term [18][19]. - **Lead**: There are disturbances in recycled lead supply, and social inventory is at a low level. The current demand is in the peak season, and the supply is slightly less than expected. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons. The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be widely volatile in the short term [22][24]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts are decreasing. Nickel - iron prices are weakening, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand sustainability needs attention. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [25][26]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints are strengthening. In Wa State, production increase may be delayed, and in Indonesia, refined tin supply is expected to tighten. Although the inventory has started to accumulate slightly, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [26][27]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On October 27, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index, and PPI commodity index of CITIC Futures all showed increases. The industrial products index had the highest increase of 0.95% [152]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 27, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.55%, a 5 - day increase of 2.41%, a 1 - month increase of 5.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.71% [153].