宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 12 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 中美谈判启动带动市场乐观预期 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（5 月第 2 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场放量上涨。关税动态方面，五一假期期间， 中美谈判现乐观预期，带动市场放量上涨。5 月 10 日，中美 经贸高层会谈开始在瑞士日内瓦开始举行，预计后续陆续取得 进展，但谈判进程预计较为缓慢，二季度关税对外需影响仍然 ...

宏观动态报告 关税冲击下的出口韧性 4 月进出口数据解读 2025年5月9日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 ☎：010-8092-7780 网: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 风险提示:外需走弱的风险;国内经济下行的风险;贸易摩擦加剧的风险。 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 2 集成电路和汽车出口修复上行:(1)4月份机电、高技术和劳动密集型产品 ● 出口增速均有不同程度回落,其中机电产品出口增速 10.1%(前值 13.4%), 高新技术产品出口增速 6.5%(前值 7.3%)，劳动密集型产品出口增速转负至 -1.7%（前值 9.1%）；（2）集成电路 20.2%（前值 7.9%）和汽车包括底盘 4.4%(前值 1.7%)出口增速均有不同程度上行;通用机械设备 17%(前值 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's export growth in April recorded a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, which is a decline of over 4 percentage points from March but higher than market expectations, indicating strong export resilience [1][2] Export Performance - The decline in export growth is attributed to a decrease in quantity contribution while price drag has narrowed [4] - Exports to transshipment countries and neighboring regions showed higher growth rates, particularly in integrated circuits and automobiles, while direct exports to the US saw a significant drop [6][8] Factors Contributing to Export Resilience - The resilience in exports is primarily driven by transshipment activities and tariff exemptions on certain goods from the US, with over 20% of Chinese goods exempted from export tariffs, particularly in semiconductors, consumer electronics, and pharmaceuticals [1][2] - Despite a notable decline in direct exports to the US, exports to ASEAN and other transshipment countries have increased significantly, indicating a substantial counterbalance from transshipment activities [6] Future Export Trends - The outlook for exports suggests a potential overall decline, with expectations of reaching a low point by mid-year due to the impact of US inflation and economic slowdown [14] - Even with a downward trend in exports, the corresponding demand for imported components may also decrease, leading to a slower reduction in trade surplus and less drag on economic growth [14] Import Performance - In April, China's import growth was recorded at -0.2%, which is an increase of over 4 percentage points from March, indicating significant improvement in imports [10] - The increase in imports is attributed to improved domestic consumption and a phenomenon of "panic buying" due to retaliatory tariffs from the US [10][12] Trade Surplus - China's trade surplus in April was $96.18 billion, a decrease of $6.46 billion from March, reflecting the overall trends in exports and imports [14]