第一，2025年国补资金比2024年翻了一番，所以资金规模上，相信2026年资金规模还是值得期待的。 第二，补贴范围上，2025年已经从家电拓展到了电脑、手机这些数码类的产品，所以2026年各个地方也 会因地制宜把补贴的范围向消费领域进一步拓展。 第三，财政的贴息政策，不管是消费还是供给都实行了双贴息政策。下一步，地方政府在进行支出的时 候，2026年也要考虑支出进度，防止前松后紧。 新闻1+1丨明年财政的钱该怎么花、如何更好"投资于人"详解来了 明年财政的钱到底该怎么花？12月27日至28日，全国财政工作会议对此作出进一步部署。明年要扩大财 政支出盘子，调整优化国补范围和标准，促进居民就业增收，完善社会保障体系，财政的钱要更多用于 促消费和民生保障。《新闻1+1》连线中央财经大学财税学院教授白彦锋，带来分析解读。 明年国补政策的范围、力度会有什么样的变化？ 中央财经大学财税学院教授白彦锋： 白彦锋：这两年学龄人口在发生一个很大的变化，尤其学前的人口呈现逐步下降的趋势，这样就会波及 中学的学位呈现先增后降。 从区域上，更多的学龄人口在从乡村向城市，尤其是大城市集中。 适应学龄人口年龄变化，财政资金的支出也要进 ...

央视网消息：明年财政的钱到底该怎么花？12月27日至28日，全国财政工作会议对此作出进一步部署。明年要扩大财政支出盘子，调 整优化国补范围和标准，促进居民就业增收，完善社会保障体系，财政的钱要更多用于促消费和民生保障。《新闻1+1》连线中央财 经大学财税学院教授白彦锋，带来分析解读。 明年国补政策的范围、力度会有什么样的变化？ 中央财经大学财税学院教授 白彦锋： 第一，2025年国补资金比2024年翻了一番，所以资金规模上，相信2026年资金规模还是值得期待的。 从区域上，更多的学龄人口在从乡村向城市，尤其是大城市集中。 第三，财政的贴息政策，不管是消费还是供给都实行了双贴息政策。下一步，地方政府在进行支出的时候，2026年也要考虑支出进 度，防止前松后紧。 建立一个教育经费分配的新机制 意味着什么？ 白彦锋：这两年学龄人口在发生一个很大的变化，尤其学前的人口呈现逐步下降的趋势，这样就会波及中学的学位呈现先增后降。 第二，补贴范围上，2025年已经从家电拓展到了电脑、手机这些数码类的产品，所以2026年各个地方也会因地制宜把补贴的范围向消 费领域进一步拓展。 明年财政加大对民生的保障会起什么作用？ 白彦锋：就 ...

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青在接受央广财经记者采访时表示，2026年以旧换新支持资金规模有望从今 年的3000亿元上调至5000亿元，促消费的范围也有望从耐用消费品扩大至一般消费品和服务消费。另 外，当前居民旅游出行、教育、医疗、养老等服务消费需求旺盛，但受制于服务消费供给能力不足， 2026年我国还将重点用好央行5000亿服务消费与养老再贷款，支持市场主体提升服务消费供给能力，改 善服务消费的供需适配性。 "最后，2026年强调投资于人，也会增强居民消费能力。财政支出会进一步增加对人的投资，教育、医 疗、养老、科技等方面的支出比重或将上升。这些都能在较短时间内提升居民消费能力。"王青预计， 2026年社会消费品零售总额增速有望加快，服务零售额同比增速有望达到6.5%左右。居民消费对经济 增长的拉动力会进一步增强，这也能推动物价水平合理回升。当前我国政府负债率不高，2026年在促消 费方面有充足的政策空间。 华福证券近日发布的研报则认为，2026年国补政策接续背景下，存量更新、品类结构升级有望带动内需 趋稳。 央视新闻援引商务部数据显示，今年1—11月，消费品以旧换新带动相关商品销售额超2.5万亿元，惠及 超3 ...

Group 1: Domestic Demand and Market Outlook - The home appliance sector is expected to show a "high first half and stable second half" trend in 2025, driven by policy continuation and consumption peaks [1] - In the first three quarters of 2025, air conditioner shipments increased by 8.4%, refrigerators by 2.4%, and washing machines by 4.1% year-on-year [1][13] - For 2026, the continuation of subsidies is anticipated to mitigate the impact of high base effects and demand pull-forward, with projected declines in overall appliance sales of -4% to -7.3% under various subsidy scenarios [1][16][19] Group 2: Export Performance and Global Market Trends - Home appliance exports have slowed down due to tariff policies and global supply chain adjustments, but still show resilience and structural highlights [2] - In 2025, the export growth rate for air conditioners is expected to be weaker than that of washing machines and refrigerators, primarily due to adverse weather conditions affecting overseas demand [2][39] - The U.S. market is projected to benefit from a rate cut, which may enhance demand for home appliances, while the European market is expected to maintain a slow recovery [42][44][50] Group 3: Investment Themes - The narrative in the black appliance sector is shifting from "market share chasing" to "profit and pricing power," with Chinese brands like Hisense and TCL expected to convert market share into higher profits [3][55] - White appliances are seen as having strong growth potential due to their historical resilience through cycles, with leading brands like Midea and Haier expected to maintain stable growth and generous dividends [3][83] - The global competition in new consumer products, particularly in smart imaging and robotic vacuum cleaners, is expected to favor Chinese brands, highlighting their competitive advantages [3] Group 4: Financial Metrics and Valuation - As of December 22, 2025, the home appliance sector's PE TTM is 16.27 times, remaining below the 10-year average of 32.8% [7] - The white appliance segment's current PE is 11.22, while black appliances stand at 25.94, indicating varying levels of market valuation [9] - The home appliance sector has seen a decline in public fund holdings, with a heavy allocation of only 2.46% in Q3 2025, reflecting concerns over demand in 2026 [9]

首席联合电话会-消费专场 20251225 摘要 国补政策收紧，补贴品类聚焦于黑白电等核心品类，对美的、海尔、 TCL 电子和海信视像等企业形成支撑，但需关注海信家电和格力电器等 竞争激烈品牌，一季度后或有更佳投资时机。 宠物行业保持高单位数增长，线上渠道增长显著，但产品创新进入瓶颈 期。头部品牌增长高于行业平均水平，小品牌生存承压，行业集中度提 升。人民币升值对出口企业有汇率损失，但影响可控。 中国东方教育受益于疫后扩张和国家对就业的重视，招生人数双位数增 长，新培训项目增长迅速。公司专注职业教育，就业率高，长期看具备 竞争优势，并积极拓展新兴领域业务。 中国东方教育积极布局"一带一路"项目，预期未来几年将显著提升业 绩，当前估值较低，分红率高，预计明年业绩可达 10 亿元，未来三年 复合利润增长率预计为 15%-20%。 医药行业关注小核酸产业链，诺华英克司兰进入医保但产能不足，利好 国内供应链企业。建议关注符合 FDA 审计标准并进入跨国公司供应链的 企业，如联化科技、辰大药业等。 Q&A 2026 年家电行业以旧换新政策有哪些变化？ 2026 年家电行业以旧换新政策将更加聚焦于传统大家电品类，如彩电、 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a strong market rating for the home appliance sector, emphasizing the shift in consumer behavior towards a more present-focused consumption mindset, driven by the new generation of consumers [1] - The report highlights the expected leadership of the new consumption sector in 2025, while traditional consumption sectors are anticipated to show lackluster performance [4] Macro Consumption Trends - The report notes a significant transformation in consumer attitudes, moving from a culture of saving to one of cautious spending and living in the moment, which is expected to create new investment opportunities [4][11] - It identifies a structural opportunity in consumption, with the main drivers shifting from broad-based recovery to specific demographic groups, particularly the elderly and single-person households [32] Global Economic Landscape - The report emphasizes the importance of global emerging markets, suggesting that Chinese companies are well-positioned to lead in new product categories with significant growth potential [4] - It points out that the export structure is evolving towards innovation-driven categories, enhancing resilience against geopolitical risks [4] Domestic Consumption Dynamics - The report indicates that domestic consumption is entering a phase of refinement, with strong companies benefiting from the changing consumption landscape [4] - It highlights the ongoing growth in the pet economy and health supplements, suggesting that companies with e-commerce capabilities will be favored [4] Export Opportunities - The report discusses the resilience of exports, noting a shift from reliance on developed markets to emerging markets, with significant growth in exports to countries like India and Indonesia [49] - It highlights the importance of diversifying export markets and supporting new business models such as cross-border e-commerce [49] Sector-Specific Insights - The report identifies specific sectors poised for growth, including cleaning appliances, which are expected to benefit from government subsidies and increasing consumer demand [53] - It suggests that the pet economy and health products will continue to thrive, driven by changing consumer preferences and increased awareness [4] Consumer Income and Spending - The report notes that while income growth is stabilizing across different income groups, the spending power of high-income households is expected to drive consumption growth [35] - It emphasizes the importance of asset conditions, particularly housing, in influencing consumer behavior and spending patterns [35] Rural Consumption Potential - The report highlights the growing consumption potential in rural areas, where income growth is outpacing urban areas, suggesting a shift in focus towards rural markets [39] - It notes that rural high-income groups are likely to lead in spending on services, healthcare, and entertainment [39]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference has emphasized the optimization of the "Two New" policy, which includes large-scale equipment updates and a subsidy program for replacing old consumer goods [1] - The subsidy program, referred to as "national subsidy," will continue next year, encouraging consumer purchases of home appliances and digital products [1] - In 2025, the subsidy program will expand to include new categories such as smartphones, tablets, smartwatches, microwaves, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers, benefiting consumers and stimulating sales [1] Group 2 - The "takeout war" among delivery platforms has led to intense competition characterized by cash-burning strategies to gain market share, resulting in record-high order volumes [2] - However, this competition has created a vicious cycle of low-quality service, with issues such as declining food quality, consumer safety concerns, and inadequate protection for delivery personnel [2] - Recent regulatory measures aim to improve management practices within delivery platforms, focusing on merchant management and promotional activities to foster healthy competition and innovation in the industry [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuation of national subsidies, which are expected to stimulate consumer potential through the optimization of the "two new" policies, namely large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods [4][6] - The household appliance sector has shown a mixed performance, with air conditioning sales growing significantly while other categories like refrigerators have remained stable or declined [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in supply, particularly for differentiated products that can quickly respond to consumer demands, which are likely to gain market share [6] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Market Performance**: The household appliance sector has seen a 1.95% increase over the past month, a 0.45% increase over three months, and a 7.54% increase over the past year, compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index which has increased by 3.55%, 2.44%, and 17.41% respectively [5] - **Sales Data**: In November 2025, retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment reached 100 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.40%. However, the cumulative year-on-year growth for the first 11 months was 14.80% [6] - **Product Category Performance**: Air conditioning has shown the best growth performance among white goods, with online retail volumes increasing by 15% year-on-year, while refrigerators saw a decline of 1% and washing machines increased by 7% [6] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on companies with overseas production capabilities targeting the North American market, as well as those with strong technological advantages in the smart home sector [6]

本报讯 （记者贾丽）12月18日，由奥维云网（AVC）、京东MALL、京东电器品牌联合举办的"赢销进 化值达用户——2025第七届中国厨卫产业创新发展峰会"在南京圆满召开。本次峰会汇聚了全国厨卫行 业协会领导、头部品牌代表，共同探讨存量竞争时代行业创新发展与用户价值深耕的核心路径。 基于以上分析，具有"大产业小赛道"特性的厨卫行业预计将在未来3年进一步增强马太效应，各企业需 通过"变强"来抢占更大市场份额。"变强"之路需各企业针对不同品类，个性化寻找符合品类特性与企业 能力的发展路径：例如烟灶热重在"品"的升级，洗嵌净关键在于"人"的捕捉，而集成灶则侧重于"场"的 精耕。在这一过程中，奥维云网也将持续助力企业，实现线下店铺的营销闭环与线上店铺的降本增效。 中国家用电器商业协会常务副秘书长吴咸建表示，从数据角度来看，家电商品零售额增速及家用电器及 电子产品专门零售业利润总额增减率情况等多维数据均体现出家电行业发展整体承压的现状。其次从国 补发展来看，2026年国补政策将持续发力，促进消费扩容升级，推动行业高质量发展。最后从国补常态 化发展来看，各企业应充分意识到常态化国补给市场带来的影响并积极做出应对，一方面国 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国汽车流通协会发文称，12月厂商及经销商为冲刺年度目标将持续加码终端促销；同时部分春节前置购车需求也 开始逐步释放。对于首购车的消费者而言，新能源购置税优惠政策即将退坡，依然构成强烈的年末购车驱动力。然而考虑到业内普遍预 期"两新"政策明年将延续，加之车企新能源"购置税兜底"方案稳定预期的作用，部分置换需求转移至明年1月。综合上述因素，预计12月 终端消费市场将呈现温和回升态势，但难以形成显著的"翘尾"行情。综上因素，同时结合11月份的销量与12月上半月的经销商数据增速 水平，预计12月份全月乘用车终端销量235万辆左右。 2025年全年乘用车终端零售量预计达2355万，较2024年基本持平。 年末多地置换补贴政策收紧，车企对新能源"购置税兜底"的影响，消费者持币待购有所加剧，11月乘用车终端零售量低于预期，环比10 月市场销量出现小幅下降。 12月乘用车市场开局表现平淡。新能源购置税免征政策年底到期(2026年起减半)以及两新政策截止未能产生显著的"末班车效应"。由于多 地两新政策的补贴资金已基本耗尽，置换更新需求疲软，加之明年春节较晚、部分车企新能源"购置税兜底"补贴方案延续，消费者 ...