投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 12 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 市场情绪回暖，钢价震荡企稳 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 焦煤焦炭周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 矿山库存大增 双焦偏弱走势 核心观点及策略 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 下游：钢厂铁水产量下跌，煤焦需求继续放缓。钢厂的 焦炭生产加快，日均焦炭产量小幅增加，库存增加，可 用天数增加。 ⚫ 中游：焦化企业盈利情况继续好转，主因焦煤价格走弱， 生产加速，焦炭产量明显增加，但出货困难，库存增加。 全国平均吨焦盈利46（环比+27）元/吨。 ⚫ 上游：矿山生产平稳，供应压力增大，焦煤库存大幅增 加。523家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为86%，环比 -0.9%。原煤日均产量191.3万吨，环比-2.1万吨，原煤 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年11月30日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期反弹，上方空间收窄 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：短期反弹，上方空间收窄 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 3 库存 观点 策略 供应 • 本周(20251121-1127)中国甲醇产量为2023515吨，较上周增加7530吨，装置产能利用率为89.09%，环比涨0.37%。本周国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检 修、减产涉及产能损失量，导致本周产能利用率上涨。下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量207.28万吨左右，产能利用率91.27%左右， 较本期上涨。下周计划检修及减产涉及产能少于计划恢复涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率上涨，产量增加。（隆众资讯） 需求 • 烯烃：青海盐湖烯烃装置重启后负荷提升，周均 ...

2025年11月30日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面限制上方弹性，低位震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 | 2 | | 工业硅：供需转弱 | 11 | | 多晶硅：波动放大，关注仓单注册情况 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：需求季节性走弱叠加大厂复产加速，上方承压 | 20 | | 棕榈油：短期技术反弹，等待产量拐点确认 | 28 | | 豆油：美豆驱动有限，区间震荡运行 | 28 | | 豆粕：关注中方采购美豆情况，盘面震荡 | 34 | | 豆一：关注中美贸易情绪，盘面震荡 | 34 | | 玉米：高位震荡 | 39 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 45 | | 棉花：短期震荡偏强 | 52 | | 生猪：限仓驱动期现背离，产业逻辑将回归 | 59 | | 花生：关注现货 | 65 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 不锈钢：库存偏高供需双弱，成本限制下方想象力 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral neutral, pay attention to the opportunity of going long the spread between MA2605 and MA2609 when the spread is low [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation in 2026 is expected to improve compared to 2025. The slowdown of non - integrated methanol production and the commissioning of downstream MTO devices are the main drivers. Traditional downstream industries also have a certain commissioning growth rate, which may gradually digest the high port inventory. Overseas, the pressure of new production capacity is not significant, and the duration of the winter maintenance at the end of 2025 will determine the absolute level of port inventory in 2026 [1][8] - The annual supply - demand is estimated to be balanced, with a significant improvement compared to 2025. The key drivers are the commissioning of traditional downstream industries and MTO devices, which boost demand. If there are supply - side problems in overseas operations, the inventory clearance rate of methanol will accelerate. There is an expectation of inventory reduction, but the current high inventory is a major issue [7][21] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Overseas supply: In 2026, the nominal new foreign production capacity is 1.65 million tons, and the actual production capacity put into operation weighted by commissioning time is about 0.62 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of about 0.8%. The total import increment in 2026 is expected to be 1.37 million tons, with an import growth rate of about 9.6% [5] - Domestic non - integrated production: In 2026, the nominal new non - integrated production capacity is 1.2 million tons, and the actual production capacity put into operation weighted by commissioning time is about 0.98 million tons/year, with an actual capacity growth rate of 1.1% [5] - Demand increment: The new external - purchase methanol MTO devices will increase the methanol demand by 2.2 million tons/year after weighted by commissioning time, with a demand growth rate of 13.8%. In 2026, the new production capacity of traditional downstream industries will increase the nominal methanol demand by 3.33 million tons/year, and the actual demand increment is 2.5 million tons/year, driving the methanol demand growth by 7.9% [6] 3.2 Market Analysis - The supply - demand situation in 2026 is expected to improve compared to 2025. The slowdown of non - integrated methanol production and the commissioning of downstream MTO devices are the main factors. Traditional downstream industries also have a certain commissioning growth rate, which may gradually digest the high port inventory. Overseas, the pressure of new production capacity is not significant, and the duration of the winter maintenance at the end of 2025 will determine the absolute level of port inventory in 2026 [8] 3.3 Methanol Annual Balance Sheet Estimation - 2026 MTO and traditional downstream commissioning boost demand, and the high - level inventory is expected to be cleared. The annual supply - demand is estimated to be balanced, with a significant improvement compared to 2025. The key drivers are the commissioning of traditional downstream industries and MTO devices, which boost demand. If there are supply - side problems in overseas operations, the inventory clearance rate of methanol will accelerate [15][21] 3.4 Methanol Port Supply - Demand Analysis - New external devices: In 2026, the pressure of new overseas methanol production capacity is not significant. The nominal new production capacity is 1.65 million tons/year, and the actual capacity growth rate weighted by commissioning time is about 0.8% [22][23] - Overseas existing devices: In 2025, the Iranian methanol supply showed a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half. The winter maintenance at the end of 2025 was late, and the actual maintenance duration needs attention. Non - Iranian supply also had different performance in different regions [25][26][31] - Internal - external price ratio: In the context of high port inventory, the import was in an inverted state, and the overseas premium performance was average [43] - Port inventory: In 2025, the port inventory reached a historical high. The winter maintenance of Iran was later than expected, and the inventory pressure in December 2025 continued. The inventory in different regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China all reached historical highs [49] - MTO new situation: In 2026, the new commissioning plan of external - purchase MTO is the highest since 2020, mainly including Shandong Lianhong Phase II and Guangxi Huayi. The integrated MTO mainly focuses on the commissioning plan of CCM Yulin Phase II in Q3 of 2026 [64] - MTO existing devices: In 2025, the operation of external - purchase MTO was acceptable. The maintenance was not concentrated, and the loss gradually recovered after the cease - fire between Iran and Israel [70][72] - Regional price difference: Pay attention to the sustainability of the window for port methanol to flow back to the inland [79] 3.5 Inland Supply - Demand Analysis - Inland methanol new situation: In 2026, the domestic commissioning pressure is not significant. The planned commissioning is 5.13 million tons/year, but non - integrated methanol devices are only 1.1 million tons/year [83] - Inland existing device load: Coal - based maintenance is mainly seasonal, and the winter maintenance of gas - based devices is still slow [90] - Non - integrated coal - based: The profit of coal - based methanol was good in the first three quarters of 2025, and the operation was acceptable [91] - Natural gas - based: The winter maintenance of southwest gas - based devices was late in 2025 [97] - Coke oven gas - based: Pay attention to the maintenance of coking enterprises. The operation of coke oven gas - based methanol has a certain long - term correlation with the coking operation rate [99][103] - Inland inventory: In 2025, the inventory of northwest enterprises decreased compared to 2024, and the inventory of east - China enterprises increased after October [105] - Traditional downstream performance: In 2025, acetic acid entered a loss and production - reduction stage after concentrated commissioning, while MTBE performed well driven by exports [109] - Traditional downstream new situation: In 2026, the new commissioning scale of traditional downstream industries is still considerable. The nominal new methanol demand is 3.33 million tons/year, and the actual new demand is 2.5 million tons/year [122][125]

华泰期货研究 2026 年期货市场展望 单边中性，价差关注多 EB 空 BZ 机会。纯苯 2026 年新增投产大于下游投产对纯苯需求的增量，全年纯苯预计进入累库周期，但纯苯加 工费已处于低位，纯苯加工费年度级别看低位震荡，纯苯或维持低波动的弱势震荡。苯乙烯 2026 年投产放缓，下游硬胶仍有投产计划， 但目前苯乙烯港口库存仍偏高，等待 26 年供应放缓后进一步库存去化，可跟踪库存高位去化的节奏介入多 EB 空 BZ 的跨品种交易机会。 跨期方面，BZ 仍偏向反套，EB 则跟踪年度库存去化节奏关注正套机会。 苯乙烯供应放缓，纯苯下游投产乏力 Chemical Research 化工板块研究 本期分析研究员 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 联系人 华泰期货研究院化工板块研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 梁宗泰 陈莉 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 杨露露 从业资格号：F03128371 刘启展 从业资格号：F03140168 梁琦 从业资格号：F03148380 期货研究报告 | EB&纯苯年报 2025-11-30 苯乙烯供应放缓，纯苯下游投产乏力 ...

华泰期货研究 2026 年期货市场展望 单边中性。供需宽松格局下，上行驱动缺乏，短期预期延续底部偏弱震荡格局。2026 年聚烯烃产能投放增速放缓，尤其是上半年基本为新投 产真空期，上半年以消化聚烯烃现有高库存为主。但年前需求支撑乏力，存量装置持续放量，库存高企下仍维持 01-05 月跨期价差做反套， 3 月作为"金三"旺季，聚烯烃需求或有望季节性回升，库存预期进入去化节奏下年度策略推荐 L05-09 与 PP05-09 跨期做正套。2026 年 PE 新投产主要以非标品 HDPE 为主，标品线性投产占比较低，基于投产差异性推荐空非标买标品线性做缩非标价差的策略。 上半年投产节奏放缓，关注库存去化进程 化工板块研究 Chemical Research 本期分析研究员 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 华泰期货研究院化工板块研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 梁宗泰 杨露露 从业资格号： F03128371 刘启展 从业资格号： F03140168 梁琦 从业资格号： F03148380 期货研究报告 | 聚烯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the coal and coke market experienced significant fluctuations, with coal policies playing a decisive role in correcting supply - demand imbalances and guiding prices back to rational levels. In 2026, the supply - demand situation of coal and coke is expected to remain generally balanced, but short - term supply - demand mismatches caused by policy changes cannot be ignored. The prices of coal and coke will still fluctuate with the black sector, but the volatility will decrease significantly compared to 2025 [6]. Summary by Directory 2025 Coal Coke Market Review 2025 Coking Coal Market Review - **Price Trend**: The coking coal market showed a deep V - shaped trend in 2025. The futures price of the main coking coal contract dropped from 1,174 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 709 yuan/ton, a decline of 40%, and then rebounded to 1,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 87%. The spot price fluctuations were lower than those of futures. For example, the price of Shaheyi Mongolian coal No. 5 dropped by 27% and then rebounded by 52% [7]. - **Supply Side**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal supply was loose due to relaxed production control policies. After the central government's policies and inspections in July, the growth of coking coal production was curbed. It is predicted that the cumulative production of coking coal (for steel use) in 2025 will reach 438 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [8]. - **Import Side**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal imports decreased significantly. In the second half, imports gradually increased. It is predicted that the cumulative coking coal imports in 2025 will reach 116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Mongolia's coking coal imports showed a trend of low in the first half and high in the second half, while the imports from the US and Australia decreased [35]. - **Demand Side**: In 2025, coking coal demand increased throughout the year. It is predicted that the cumulative pig iron production will reach 921 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%, and the cumulative consumption of coking coal (for steel use) will reach 559 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.8% [10]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory was continuously reduced in 2025, and the inventory structure was optimized. At the beginning of the year, the inventory was at a high level, and then it gradually shifted to the middle and lower reaches [56]. 2025 Coke Market Review - **Price Trend**: The coke price also experienced a V - shaped reversal in 2025. The futures price of the main coke contract dropped by 30% in the first half and then increased by 43% in the second half. The spot price fluctuations were also lower than those of coking coal [11]. - **Supply Side**: Coke production increased slightly in 2025. Due to insufficient coking profits, coking plants adopted a production - to - order strategy. It is predicted that the cumulative coke production (for steel use) in 2025 will reach 406 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [11]. - **Demand Side**: Coke consumption generally followed downstream demand. In 2025, the cumulative coke consumption (for steel use) is predicted to reach 398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. However, the export situation was not optimistic, with a predicted cumulative net export of 679,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% [12]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory was moderately reduced in 2025. The inventory of coking plants decreased to a low level in the second half of the year, the steel mills' inventory remained at a medium level, and the port inventory fluctuated at a medium - high level [80]. 2026 Coal Coke Supply - Demand Forecast 2026 Coking Coal Supply - Demand Forecast - **Production**: In 2026, coking coal production is likely to continue to grow moderately, but short - term supply mismatches caused by coal policies cannot be ignored. It is predicted that the cumulative production of coking coal (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 443 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3% [13]. - **Import**: The coking coal import situation may improve in 2026. It is predicted that the cumulative coking coal imports will reach 128 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. Mongolia and Canada's coking coal imports are expected to increase, while the US coking coal is unlikely to enter the Chinese market [13]. - **Demand**: Coking coal consumption will continue to increase in 2026, following the growth of steel production. It is predicted that the cumulative consumption of coking coal (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 564 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [14]. 2026 Coke Supply - Demand Forecast - **Production**: Coke production may continue to grow slightly in 2026. The coking industry still faces problems such as over - capacity and low industrial concentration. It is predicted that the cumulative coke production (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 409 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [15]. - **Demand**: Coke consumption may perform relatively well in 2026. It is predicted that the cumulative coke consumption (for steel use) in 2026 will reach 403 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. However, the export scale is difficult to improve, with a predicted cumulative net export of 600,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6% [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the silicon manganese and silicon ferro markets showed a downward trend due to factors such as loose supply - demand, declining cost support, and weak downstream demand. In 2026, with loose silicon manganese capacity and no significant increase in downstream consumption, its price is expected to be suppressed. For silicon ferro, although supply - demand has a growth trend, the relatively sufficient capacity will lead to intense competition, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Iron Alloy Market Review - Silicon manganese: In 2025, the price center of silicon manganese gradually moved down. There were price fluctuations due to factors such as manganese ore supply disturbances, coal price changes, and "anti - involution" sentiment [16]. - Silicon ferro: In 2025, the price of silicon ferro was affected by black - sector market trends, coal price changes, and "anti - involution" sentiment, showing an overall downward trend with fluctuations [17]. 2. Silicon Manganese: Loose Supply - Demand and Long - term Losses in Production Areas 2.1 Manganese Ore Imports Increase, but Port Manganese Ore Remains at a Low Level - In 2025, from January to October, the total manganese ore imports were 2687000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 235000 tons. The imports from Australia increased by 62000 tons compared with the same period in 2024. However, due to high port clearance volume, the port manganese ore inventory was at a low level for a long time [22]. 2.2 Long - term Losses in Production Areas, Relatively Restrained Silicon Manganese Output - From January to November 2025, production areas suffered long - term losses. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese was at a low level, and by the end of November, it dropped below 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of silicon manganese alloy was 8.434 million tons, with a slight decline [6][56]. 2.3 Good Profits of Downstream Enterprises, Resilient Demand for Silicon Manganese - In 2025, the steel industry showed a positive trend. From January to October, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills remained above 50% for a long time. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 105.32 billion yuan, much higher than the same period last year. The demand for silicon manganese in major steel products remained resilient [61][63]. 2.4 High Inventory of Alloy Enterprises Suppresses Price Increase - By the end of November, the inventory of sample silicon manganese enterprises reached 368000 tons, at a high level in the same period. Although downstream enterprises replenished inventory to some extent, the high inventory of alloy enterprises still put pressure on the price [71]. 3. Silicon Ferro: Output Increases Year - on - Year, Cost Center Moves Down 3.1 Silicon Ferro Price Fluctuates at a Low Level, Alloy Enterprises Suffer Long - term Losses - Affected by loose supply - demand, the silicon ferro price was suppressed. In June, it rebounded slightly with the stabilization of coal prices, and further rose in July due to "anti - involution" sentiment, but then fluctuated downward [10]. 3.2 Resilient Downstream Demand, Slight Increase in Output - From January to October 2025, the total output of silicon ferro was 4.624 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.24%. The demand for downstream products such as metal magnesium and stainless steel was resilient [87]. 3.3 Good Profits of Steel Enterprises, Some Inventory Replenishment by Downstream Silicon Ferro Enterprises - By the end of November, the consumption of silicon ferro in major steel products increased slightly year - on - year. The output of stainless steel crude steel increased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the consumption of silicon ferro also increased. The output of metal magnesium remained stable. By the end of October, the available days of silicon ferro inventory in steel mills were 15.67 days, higher than the same period in 2024 but still at a low level in the past five years [91][99]. 4. Outlook for 2026 - It is estimated that in 2026, overseas crude steel consumption will increase by 2.0%, and production will increase by 1.0%; domestic crude steel consumption will increase by 0.1%, and production will increase by 1.4%. - Silicon manganese: The output is expected to decrease by 0.14%, domestic consumption will decrease by 0.28% (excluding state reserves), and exports will remain at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. - Silicon ferro: The output is expected to increase by 1.4% year - on - year, domestic consumption will increase by 1.7%, and exports will decrease by 4.5%. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [103][106][108].

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