化工日报 | 2025-08-22 EG价格坚挺，基差运行平稳 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4473元/吨（较前一交易日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.09%），EG华东市场现货价4518 元/吨（较前一交易日变动+16元/吨，幅度+0.36%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）90元/吨（环比+0元/吨）。 周四，乙二醇价格重心高位坚挺，基差运行平稳。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-48美元/吨（环比+1美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-69元/吨（环比+47 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为54.7万吨（环比-0.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为49.8万吨（环比-3.7万吨）。本周华东主港计划到港总数5.4万吨，另外副港计划到 港4.3万吨。周四华东主港地区MEG港口库存总量49.78万吨，较本周一降低0.46万吨；较上周四降低3.67万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应来看，乙二醇合成气制负荷已回归高位，EG总开工回升至70%以上高位 运行；海外供应方面，8月后进口预期回升至65万吨附 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - If the Russia - Ukraine situation doesn't change and they fail to reach a peace agreement on August 27th, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact India's economy and oil demand and lead to a downward revision of India's oil demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 81 cents to $63.52 per barrel, a 1.29% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London rose 83 cents to $67.67 per barrel, a 1.24% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.27% at 493 yuan per barrel [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney had a phone call with US President Trump on Thursday to discuss trade challenges and opportunities [2] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed to immediately start negotiations to release all hostages in Gaza and end the war there under acceptable conditions [2] - The US imposed sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran [2] - Indian Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar said that despite US pressure, New Delhi will continue to buy Russian oil. On August 21st, the foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow. Kumar emphasized that India won't consider an embargo on Russian oil for reasons of national security, economy, energy interests, and the energy needs of its 1.4 billion people [2] Investment Logic - The hope of a Russia - Ukraine peace agreement on August 27th is slim. If the situation remains unchanged, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact its economy and oil demand and cause a downward revision of its oil demand [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risk - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-08-22 盘面窄幅波动，弱需求压制现货 市场分析 1、8月21日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2510合约下午收盘价3465元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨13元/吨，涨幅 0.38%；持仓211461手，环比下降6077手，成交123366手，环比下降22655手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3856—4086元/吨；山东，3380—3870元/吨；华南，3460—3530元/吨； 华东，3560—3750元/吨。 昨日西北以及东北市场价格大体企稳，其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度下跌。近期油价走势偏弱，叠加沥 青自身基本面一般，市场震荡走弱。昨日油价出现小幅反弹，BU盘面有所企稳，波动幅度仍较窄。目前来看沥青 供需两弱格局大体延续，在天气与资金因素影响下刚需改善乏力，投机需求同样偏弱，社会库存去化幅度弱于季 节性，整体供应较为充裕，现货端情绪受到压制。由于沥青自身基本面支撑乏力，未来如果油价持续下跌，则沥 青市场价格也将跟随进一步走弱，短期则需要关注俄乌和谈进展给油市情绪带来的额外扰动。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [4] Core View - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate has improved, with both inventory and production decreasing. The subsequent approval of other mines is uncertain, and attention should be paid to the mining end's operation. With support from the consumer end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly under the influence of mining end disturbances, but the market is volatile [2]. Market Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 82,000 yuan/ton and closed at 82,760 yuan/ton, a - 0.17% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 777,827 lots, and the open interest was 390,069 lots (395,102 lots the previous day). The basis was 2,740 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 24,320 lots, a change of 275 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,500 - 86,900 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 82,300 - 83,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 960 US dollars/ton (unchanged). The sharp decline in the lithium carbonate futures price has boosted downstream procurement and pricing enthusiasm, and the trading volume has significantly increased. Supported by rigid procurement from the downstream, the spot price of lithium carbonate will remain relatively high in the short term [1]. - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly production decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons. The production from spodumene increased, while that from mica decreased. The weekly inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons. Downstream inventory increased significantly, and smelter inventory decreased [1]. Strategy - Due to the improvement in the supply - demand pattern, the reduction in inventory and production, and the uncertainty of subsequent mine approvals, attention should be paid to the mining end's operation. With support from the consumer end, lithium carbonate is expected to run strongly, but market participants need to manage risks due to high volatility [2]. Trading Recommendations - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4]

市场分析 1、\t8月21日地区价格：山东市场，4420-4520；东北市场，3950-4130；华北市场，4280-4620；华东市场，4330-4480； 沿江市场，4480-4760；西北市场，4250-4350；华南市场，4478-4580。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷579美元/吨，涨1美元/吨，丁烷556美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4544元/吨，涨2元/吨，丁烷4363元/吨，跌22元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷571美元/吨，涨1美元/吨，丁烷548美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4481元/吨，涨2元/吨，丁烷4301元/吨，跌21元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-22 盘面筑底反弹，但驱动仍有限 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 在PG盘面处于低位弱势运行的背景下，近期出现一些边际利多因素（国际运费上涨、化工需求改善），市场情绪有 所改善，叠加主力合约切换到2510，盘面有筑底反弹迹象。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The second - phase 900,000 - ton/year PP new device of Daxie Petrochemical, with a postponed initial plan, is now scheduled to be put into production around August 23 - 24. In the long - term, there is significant pressure from new PP capacity. Downstream factory start - up rates are rising slowly, inventory transfer is sluggish, and upstream inventory is accumulating. Cost - side support is weak, and the demand side is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, LL East China - main contract basis, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Figures cover LL production profit (crude oil - based), PE start - up rate, PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP start - up rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization rate [20][21][29] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Figures involve HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [28][35][36] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Figures include LL import profit, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, LL Europe FD - China CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), PP homopolymer injection molding US Gulf FOB - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR, and LL export profit [42][47][54] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profit - Figures show PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate, PE downstream packaging film start - up rate, PE downstream stretch film - LL - 2300, PP downstream woven bag start - up rate, PP downstream BOPP start - up rate, PP downstream injection molding start - up rate, PP downstream woven bag production gross profit, and PP downstream BOPP production gross profit [63][64][74] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures display PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory [73][79][84]

下游畏跌情绪有所改变 但铅价仍维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-08-21，LME铅现货升水为-39.48美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化75元/吨至16675 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/ 吨至16725元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化100元/吨至16675元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易 日变化25元/吨至16675元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至10125元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10125元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10450元/吨。 期货方面：2025-08-21，沪铅主力合约开于16770元/吨，收于16745元/吨，较前一交易日变化20元/吨，全天交易日 成交28843手，较前一交易日变化-9828手，全天交易日持仓44230手，手较前一交易日变化-2546手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到16810元/吨，最低点达到16720元/吨。夜盘方面，沪铅主力合约开于16755元 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-08-22 EB下游开工再度回升 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-110元/吨（+0）。纯苯港口库存14.40万吨（-0.20万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费173美元/吨 （+0美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费157美元/吨（-1美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差51.6美元/吨（-3.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯 现货-M2价差0元/吨（-10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1845元/吨（-25），酚酮生产利润-701元/吨（+50），苯胺生产利润-204元/吨（-43）， 己二酸生产利润-1331元/吨（+5）。己内酰胺开工率91.86%（-1.86%），苯酚开工率78.00%（+1.00%），苯胺开工率 70.10%（-1.47%），己二酸开工率65.50%（+3.80%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差26元/吨（+31元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-298元/吨（+45元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存161500吨（+12700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存76500吨（+7000吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率78.5%（+0.4 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-22 供需博弈，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2509合约13765元/吨，较前交易日变动-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.07%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.60元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.09元/公斤，现货基差 LH09-165，较前交易日变动-80；江苏地区 外三元生猪价格 13.87元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.02元/公斤，现货基差LH09+105，较前交易日变动-10；四川地 区外三元生猪价格13.55元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH09-215，较前交易日变动+10。 据农业农村部监测，8月21日"农产品批发价格200指数"为115.57，比昨天上升0.15个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为115.97，比昨天上升0.17个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为20.03元/公斤，与昨天持平；牛肉65.14元/ 公斤，比昨天上升0.4%；羊肉60.08元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；鸡蛋7.73元/公斤，比昨天上升1.4%；白条鸡17.49 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%。 市场分析 综合来看，未 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The unplanned shutdown of large - scale PTA plants has led to a significant increase in prices. The shutdown of two 2.5 - million - ton plants of Hengli will affect 5 million tons of PTA production capacity, accounting for 5.5% of the total PTA production capacity and 30% of Hengli's total PTA production capacity. This may cause a monthly loss of up to 400,000 tons, and the supply - demand situation in September will change from balance to significant de - stocking[1]. - In terms of cost, the meeting between the US and Russian presidents ended with a good negotiation atmosphere but no agreement. The geopolitical situation continues to impact crude oil prices, which are in a short - term range - bound pattern. The PX balance sheet has shifted from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, but the overall PX inventory remains low, and there is support below the PXN[2]. - The most pessimistic period for PTA demand has passed. With the increase in PTA maintenance, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the de - stocking amplitude from August to September has significantly increased. However, the supply of old goods is abundant due to the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts[2]. - The polyester operating rate is 89.4% (a month - on - month increase of 0.6%). The most pessimistic period of the off - season for demand has passed, and there are signs of improvement in local orders. The polyester load is expected to remain stable and continue to rise in the short term[3]. - For PF, the demand has improved slightly but is limited. The near - month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts. For PR, several major manufacturers have extended their maintenance plans, and the spot processing fee for bottle chips is expected to recover and then return to range - bound fluctuations[3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - glossy natural white basis[8][9][11]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX CFR China - Naphtha CFR Japan), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit[17][20]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit[25][27]. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia[28][31][33]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents figures on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory[37][40][41]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes figures on filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rates, and filament profits[48][50][52]. VII. Detailed PF Data - Figures cover polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee[71][78][82]. VIII. Detailed PR Fundamental Data - It includes figures on polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips spread, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread[87][94][96].