上证报中国证券网讯（记者 白丽斐）国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦13日在第十六届财新峰会上 表示，发展新质生产力要创造好的宏观环境。他认为，经济增长可以从高度和宽度两个维度来看，高度 是指通过创新和体制改革提升经济增长往上的空间；宽度是需求，不同的社会群体收入所得构成了全社 会的总需求。如果需求不足，特别是消费需求不足的问题不能解决的话，新质生产力发展可能会受到很 大限制。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 ...

Economic Growth - The UK economy showed signs of slowing growth in September, with a GDP monthly rate of only 0.1%, marking the smallest increase since November 2024 [1] - Overall economic growth remains positive but is clearly slowing down, particularly in the industrial production sector [3] Industrial Production - Industrial output fell by 2% in September, the largest decline since January 2021 [3] - Manufacturing output decreased by 1.7%, the biggest drop since April 2024, indicating significant pressure on the UK manufacturing sector [3] Trade Balance - The adjusted goods trade deficit for September was £18.883 billion, the smallest deficit since January 2025, suggesting improvements in external trade conditions [3] Monetary Policy Implications - Analysts believe that the current data may influence the Bank of England's future monetary policy, necessitating a more cautious approach in balancing inflation control and economic growth support [3]

Group 1 - The global economy shows significant resilience despite rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal pressures, driven by AI transformation, flexible trade adjustments, and moderate monetary and fiscal policies [9] - China aims for resilient, stable, and inclusive economic growth from 2026 to 2030, focusing on self-reliance in technology, particularly in semiconductors and AI, while facing challenges such as demand fluctuations and a declining real estate market [12] - Japan's economic growth is expected to slow due to tariff impacts, but it can avoid recession, with core CPI inflation projected to drop below 2% by 2026 [15] Group 2 - The Asian economy (excluding Japan) presents mixed growth prospects, with a strong performance in the tech sector but challenges in non-tech sectors due to high tariffs on labor-intensive industries [19] - The Chinese internet sector's focus will remain on AI strategies and competition in the instant retail space, with expectations of reduced competitive intensity in the fourth quarter [22][23] - China is increasingly developing a self-sufficient AI supply chain, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and a focus on enhancing operational efficiency through large language models [26] Group 3 - Market attention is shifting towards fiscal stimulus policies, inflation trends, and real estate market support, with stable performance in the onshore stock market and steel-related commodities [30] - The A-share market's future growth will be driven by policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrades, despite high valuations and the need for confirmed improvements in fundamentals [35]

Economic Growth - The UK economy experienced minimal growth in Q3, with GDP increasing by only 0.1%, down from 0.3% in Q2 and below the forecasted 0.2% [1][3] - In September alone, the economy contracted by 0.1%, as weak growth in the services sector was offset by a sharp decline in manufacturing [1] Jaguar Land Rover Incident - A significant factor impacting September's economic performance was a cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover, leading to a production halt of over five weeks and a nearly 30% drop in automotive manufacturing output [7] - This incident directly contributed to a 0.17 percentage point decline in GDP for September [7] Consumer and Business Sentiment - Consumer and business spending has been sluggish due to concerns over potential tax increases in the upcoming budget announcement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves [3][5] - The economic outlook is further dampened by expectations of significant tax hikes, which could reduce GDP by approximately 0.2% by 2026 [3] Trade Performance - UK exports to the US fell by 11.4% (approximately £500 million), reaching the lowest level since January 2022, largely due to tariffs imposed by the US [8][9] - Overall, UK exports decreased by 0.1% in Q3, while imports declined by 0.3% [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth shows that the destocking of steel is slower than the seasonal norm, with production - side开工率普遍回升 and demand - side facing various situations such as slow steel destocking and uneven performance in different sectors. - Inflation is characterized by a weak rebound in pig prices at the bottom, along with different price trends in CPI and PPI components [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Steel Destocking Slower than Seasonal Norm 3.1.1 Production: General Increase in Operating Rates - **Power Plant Daily Consumption Seasonal Rebound**: On November 10, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 796,000 tons, up 4.3% from November 3. On November 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 1.879 million tons, up 4.1% from October 30, driven by winter heating and industrial electricity load recovery [4][12]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate Recovered to Pre - Restriction Level**: On November 7, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.2%, up 1.4 percentage points from October 31, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.8%, down 0.8 percentage points. The blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills was 91.9%, up 23.5 percentage points from October 31. However, the subsequent maintenance and production - cut efforts may increase due to weak downstream markets [4][16]. - **Tire Operating Rate Moderately Rebounded**: On November 6, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 65.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from October 30, and that of semi - steel car tires was 73.7%, up 0.3 percentage points. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continued to be strong [4][19]. 3.1.2 Demand: Steel Destocking Slower than Seasonal Norm - **Improvement in New Home Sales in 30 Cities on a Month - on - Month Basis**: From November 1 - 11, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 197,000 square meters, up 65.7% from October, but down compared with the same periods in previous years. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all declined year - on - year [4][24]. - **Weak Start in the Automobile Retail Market**: In November, retail sales were down 19% year - on - year, and wholesale sales were down 22% year - on - year. The high base last year and tightened subsidy policies contributed to the low growth [4][28]. - **Weak Fluctuation in Steel Prices**: On November 11, compared with November 4, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled prices changed by + 0.3%, + 1.4%, - 0.9%, and - 0.4% respectively. Steel destocking was slower than the seasonal norm, with the inventory of five major steel products at 1.075 million tons on November 7, down 2,100 tons from October 31 [4][33]. - **Regional Differentiation in Cement Prices**: On November 11, the national cement price index rose 0.1% from November 4. The prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions showed different trends. The year - on - year decline in cement prices widened [4][34]. - **Weak Decline in Glass Prices**: On November 11, the active glass futures contract price was 1,062 yuan/ton, down 3.7% from November 4. The year - on - year and month - on - month declines in glass prices were significant [4][39]. - **End of Four - Consecutive - Increase and Turn to Decline in Container Shipping Freight Index**: On November 7, the CCFI index rose 3.6% from October 31, while the SCFI index fell 3.6%. The container shipping market is in the traditional off - season, but there may be a replenishment wave in late November and December [4][41]. 3.2 Inflation: Weak Rebound in Pig Prices at the Bottom 3.2.1 CPI: Weak Rebound in Pig Prices at the Bottom - **Weak Rebound in Pig Prices at the Bottom**: On November 11, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.1 yuan/kg, up 0.5% from November 4. Although the supply pressure will be gradually released, the overall consumption environment is still weak [4][47]. - **Moderate Increase in Agricultural Product Price Index**: On November 11, the agricultural product wholesale price index rose 0.5% from November 4. Different agricultural products showed different price trends, with chicken having the highest increase [4][52]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Price Rebound after Decline - **Oil Price Rebound after Decline**: On November 11, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $64.4 and $61.0 per barrel respectively, with Brent down 1.7% and WTI up 0.8% from November 4. Supply - side and demand - side factors jointly affect the oil price [4][55]. - **Moderate Increase in Copper and Aluminum Prices**: On November 11, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum rose 1.7% and 0.2% respectively from November 4. The domestic commodity index's month - on - month decline narrowed [4][59]. - **Mixed Month - on - Month Price Changes in Industrial Products**: Since November, industrial product prices have shown different trends, with some rising and some falling. Most of the year - on - year declines in industrial product prices have converged, except for cement and glass [4][61].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warns about the rising U.S. national debt, stating that if the current fiscal path continues without significant economic expansion, there will be consequences [1][4] Debt Concerns - Solomon highlights the accelerated growth of U.S. debt over the past five years, with total debt increasing from approximately $10 trillion in 2008 to over $30 trillion currently, more than three times the original amount [1] - The U.S. federal debt is projected to grow from $37 trillion to $38 trillion in 2025, marking the fastest increase outside of the pandemic [1] Economic Growth vs. Revenue Generation - Solomon emphasizes that addressing the debt issue should focus on economic growth rather than increasing taxes or finding new revenue sources, noting a significant gap between a 3% compound growth rate and the current 2% potential growth rate [2] - He expresses optimism about higher economic growth potential due to factors like corporate technology applications and ongoing infrastructure investments, with major companies expected to invest $350 billion in infrastructure this year [2] Short-term Economic Outlook - Despite long-term debt concerns, Solomon assesses the current short-term economic situation as relatively positive, suggesting a low likelihood of recession in the near term [3] - He acknowledges the unpredictability of U.S. policies and the necessity for business leaders to adapt to policy changes [3] Financial Stability and Debt Management - Solomon stresses the importance of maintaining key financial stability mechanisms, including the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has played a positive role globally [3] - He warns that if debt continues to grow, the responsibility for addressing U.S. fiscal issues will ultimately fall on the country itself rather than other nations [4]

（文章来源：新华财经） 法国央行在其例行调查中表示，意义重大的预算投票，加上国际形势严峻，预计11月法国的重大投资项 目将放缓。报告称："受政治局势影响，工业订单量普遍偏低，不确定性依然很高。" 新华财经北京11月12日电法国央行表示，法国经济"将在第四季度略有增长"，政治不确定性较高导致11 月扩张速度放缓，不过法国央行在周二发布的月度预测中并未给出具体数字。 ...

（原标题：欧洲第三季度经济增长小幅加速） 《商业日报》10月30日报道，欧洲统计局周四公布的初步数据显示，欧元区和欧盟经济在第三季度 略有加速增长，摆脱了停滞的边缘。根据经季节调整的数据，统计学家计算得出，欧元区第三季度经济 活动增长了0.2%，而前三个月仅增长了0.1%。在欧洲四大经济体中，西班牙的经济环比增长最为强 劲，达到0.6%。法国的经济增长率也接近，为0.5%。德国和意大利的经济保持在春季三个月的水平， 经济衰退的威胁得以避免。 ...

Economic Performance - The US economy showed strong performance in 2023 with a total output of $27.37 trillion, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year growth after adjusting for inflation, which is an increase of $1.65 trillion compared to 2022 [1][3] - Consumer spending was a significant driver, with retail sales increasing by 3.2% for the year and a notable 5.6% year-on-year jump in December [1][3] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surged nearly 30% from November to January, marking the fastest increase since the 1990s [1] Government Spending and Debt - The US national debt rose from $23 trillion in 2019 to $34 trillion in 2023, with an increase of $11 trillion over four years, largely due to government stimulus measures [3] - The quarterly GDP figures for 2023 were $6.55 trillion, $6.8 trillion, $6.93 trillion, and $7.09 trillion, each surpassing the annual output of Japan or Germany [3] Comparison with China - China's total output in 2023 was 126.06 trillion yuan, equivalent to approximately $17.89 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, which is more than double the US growth rate [3] - The gap between the US and China widened from $5.77 trillion two years ago to $9.48 trillion, with China accounting for only 65.36% of the US economy [3] - China's consumer contribution rate reached a historic high of 82.5%, while the export surplus was $822.3 billion [3] Investment and Market Trends - Corporate investment showed signs of recovery, particularly in the tech sector, with the Dow Jones index rising by 13.7% over the year [4] - The US economy's resilience is attributed to consumer spending, which constitutes nearly 80% of the total economic output [3][4] Future Projections - For 2024, the US GDP is projected to rise to $29.18 trillion, with a growth rate of 2.8%, while China's GDP is expected to reach 134.91 trillion yuan (approximately $18.80 trillion) with a growth rate of 5.0% [7] - The International Monetary Fund forecasts China's growth at 4.8% for 2024, while the US is projected to grow at 1.9% in 2025 [7][9] Structural Challenges - The US economy benefits from strong consumer demand and low unemployment, while China faces challenges such as real estate debt, low consumer confidence, and high youth unemployment [9] - The structural differences between the two economies are highlighted by the US's reliance on consumer spending and investment, while China's economy is more dependent on exports and manufacturing [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of around 5.0% in 2025, with a slight decrease to approximately 4.9% in 2026, supported by fiscal expansion and improved local government finances [3] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 11, 2025, the CSI 300 Index has decreased by 0.75%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [2] - The top-performing stocks include Arctech Solar, which rose by 6.07%, and JinkoSolar, which increased by 2.21% [2] - The CSI 300 ETF from Bosera has seen a decline of 0.85%, with a latest price of 1.51 yuan [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise of the year [2] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Dongguan Securities anticipates that the Chinese economy is in a critical phase of momentum transition, with expectations for improvement in the fourth quarter due to policy support [3] - The market is expected to experience a "slow bull" trend, with a focus on balanced allocation across sectors such as new energy, technology growth, dividends, and non-ferrous metals [3] Group 4: Index Composition - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Index account for 21.76% of the index, including major companies like CATL and Kweichow Moutai [4]