Group 1: Consumer Sentiment and Spending - The Trump tariff policy has severely impacted consumer confidence in the U.S., particularly among middle and low-income groups, leading to reduced spending [1] - Companies that primarily target middle-class consumers, such as McDonald's, General Motors, Harley-Davidson, and Hershey, are experiencing declining sales and profit pressures [1] - McDonald's reported its lowest sales in mature U.S. restaurants since the pandemic, attributing this to cautious spending by lower-income customers [1] Group 2: Automotive Industry Impact - Harley-Davidson's motorcycle sales fell by 24% year-over-year, with the CEO citing economic uncertainty and high interest rates as key factors [2] - General Motors, despite initial sales growth, has lowered its annual profit forecast by $2 billion to $3 billion due to tariff costs of $4 billion to $5 billion [2] - GM plans to increase North American prices by up to 1%, reversing an earlier expectation of a price decrease [2] Group 3: Confectionery Sector Challenges - Hershey reported a 15% decline in sales of candy, mints, and gum, with executives noting a growing consumer focus on value [3] - The company anticipates a loss of $15 million to $20 million in the current quarter due to tariffs on key raw materials like cocoa, which cannot be grown domestically [3] Group 4: Technology Sector Performance - Apple reported strong second-quarter sales driven by increased iPhone demand, potentially due to panic buying before new tariffs took effect [4] - Analysts warn that ongoing economic uncertainty poses real risks to both domestic and global economies, with signs of declining business and consumer confidence [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the fluctuating gold prices influenced by recent U.S. economic data and policy changes, particularly regarding tariffs on automobiles [1][2][3] - Gold prices are currently experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, trading around $3315.16 per ounce, with a recent drop of 0.8% [1][2] - The market is awaiting key economic data releases, including U.S. GDP and PCE data, which are expected to significantly impact gold's future trajectory [2][3] Group 2 - The recent softening of the U.S. government's stance on automobile tariffs has pressured gold prices, while the dollar has rebounded [1][2] - Despite short-term pressures, gold is still viewed as being in an upward trend due to potential declines in real yields under the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy [2][3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a wide-ranging consolidation phase, with significant resistance at $3323-$3325 and support at $3270-$3275 [3][5]

Group 1 - Spot gold continues to trade in a narrow range around $3314 per ounce, with a "V-shaped" reversal observed on Monday, where it dipped to $3268 before closing at $3343.91, marking a daily increase of 0.75% [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by multiple factors, including anticipation of the latest U.S. trade policy and a series of economic data releases that may serve as a litmus test for the effectiveness of the Trump administration's trade war [1][3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.7% to 98.91 on Monday, marking a four-week low, with an April cumulative decline of 4.89%, the worst monthly performance since July of the previous year [3] Group 2 - A recent Reuters survey indicates that 61% of 167 economists believe there is a "high" risk of global economic recession in 2024, a significant increase from three months ago [4] - The aggressive tariff policies of the Trump administration have led to a loss of confidence in U.S. dollar assets, resulting in a substantial evaporation of market capitalization across global stock markets [4] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show positive job growth, but at a slower pace compared to March, raising further concerns about economic slowdown [4] Group 3 - Federal Reserve officials have indicated that interest rate cuts may be considered if economic growth risks escalate, but they prefer to assess the impact of tariff policies on inflation and employment before making adjustments [5] - The gold market is showing signs of "exhaustion of selling momentum," suggesting limited downside risk, as Western investors have been notably absent in the previous gold price increase cycle [5] - Key economic data releases this week, including Q1 GDP and core PCE inflation, will be crucial for guiding global central bank policy shifts [5] Group 4 - Today's focus includes the release of March JOLTs job openings data and the second round of tariff negotiations between the U.S. and Japan, which may influence market expectations regarding the restoration of the global trade system [6] - Investors are advised to closely monitor these events for their potential impact on the dollar, gold, and risk assets [6] Group 5 - In the short term, gold prices are expected to find balance amid uncertainties in trade policy, dollar movements, and economic data, despite rising concerns over recession risks [7] - The weakening selling momentum in the gold market indicates limited downside potential, with investors urged to pay attention to upcoming employment, GDP, and inflation data for signals of Federal Reserve policy shifts [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The global trade tension shows signs of easing, weakening the safe - haven demand for gold, but the risk of global economic recession and central bank interest - rate cut expectations support the gold price. The mid - line upward trend of gold remains good, while silver is relatively weak due to industrial demand pressure [4]. - After the Fed's hawkish interest - rate cut on December 18, 2024, the gold price started a new round of rise. Although it experienced an adjustment in early April, the safe - haven demand from the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system and the global economic recession pushed the price up and broke through the upper track of the mid - level upward trend. The gold price still has upward momentum, but its volatility has increased [5]. 3) Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: London gold is running weakly in the range of $3250 - 3350 per ounce. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset, but reduce positions to avoid risks during the May Day holiday in China. Silver is relatively weak [4]. - **Mid - line Market**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut in December 2024, the gold price rose again. In early April, it adjusted due to Trump's tariff policy, and then rebounded. It is recommended that investors mainly go long at low prices with medium positions [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: Data of Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Gold T + D, and Silver T + D, including pre - closing price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, change rate, open interest, and change in open interest, are provided [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - Charts include Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][13]. III. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - There is a divergence between the US and China on tariff negotiations. The US Treasury Secretary and Agriculture Secretary have different statements [15]. - The IMF - World Bank Spring Meeting failed to solve the problem of Trump's tariff offensive. The IMF is slightly optimistic about the economic impact of US high tariffs, but private - sector forecasts show a higher probability of economic recession [15]. - The US business activity in April slowed to a 16 - month low, and prices rose, increasing concerns about stagflation. Trump's trade policy has raised the average effective tariff rate, and anti - immigration measures have damaged exports [16]. - Global trade risks and policy uncertainty are among the top potential risks in the US financial system, according to a Fed survey [16]. - US consumer confidence declined for the fourth consecutive month in April, and inflation expectations are at a high level [16].

以下文章来源于财经杂志 ，作者成孟琦 黄慧玲 编辑｜杨秀红 美国总统特朗普，又一次因为"改口"，而使全球资产出现风险偏好的转换，还带动中国资产上涨。 受特朗普对中国关税"松口"的影响，4月22日，避险情绪消退下，传统避险资产黄金、日元和瑞士 法郎出现不同程度回落，美国股市则出现回升，美股三大股指均上涨超2.5%。 4月23日，美股三大 股指数续升，纳指收涨2.5%，道指收涨1.1%，标普500指数收涨升1.7%。 现货黄金在回调后反弹，4月22日-23日，现货黄金连续走低，伦敦金现一度跌至3291美元/盎司， 4月23日下跌2.71%。不过，4月24日，金价开始反弹，截至上午11时，伦敦金现反弹至3350美 元/盎司左右，涨幅近2%。 财经杂志 . 《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办，1998年创刊，秉承"独立、独 家、独到"的新闻理念，以权威性、公正性、专业性报道见长，是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的 必读刊物。 机构认为，贸易紧张局势最糟糕阶段可能已过去，市场焦点将集中在中美谈判及中国自身政策上。 文｜《财经》特约撰稿人 成孟琦 记者 黄慧玲 中国资产方面，4月23日，A股直冲 ...

以下文章来源于财经杂志 ，作者成孟琦 黄慧玲 财经杂志 . 《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办，1998年创刊，秉承"独立、独 家、独到"的新闻理念，以权威性、公正性、专业性报道见长，是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的 必读刊物。 机构认为，贸易紧张局势最糟糕阶段可能已过去，市场焦点将集中在中美谈判及中国自身政策上。 文｜《财经》特约撰稿人 成孟琦 记者 黄慧玲 编辑｜杨秀红 美国总统特朗普，又一次因为"改口"，而使全球资产出现风险偏好的转换，还带动中国资产上涨。 受特朗普对中国关税"松口"的影响，4月22日，避险情绪消退下，传统避险资产黄金、日元和瑞士 法郎出现不同程度回落，美国股市则出现回升，美股三大股指均上涨超2.5%。 4月23日，美股三大 股指数续升，纳指收涨2.5%，道指收涨1.1%，标普500指数收涨升1.7%。 外交部、商务部否认中美就关税问题进行磋商谈判 现货黄金在回调后反弹，4月22日-23日，现货黄金连续走低，伦敦金现一度跌至3291美元/盎司， 4月23日下跌2.71%。不过，4月24日，金价开始反弹，截至上午11时，伦敦金现反弹至3350美 元/盎司左右，涨 ...

Macroeconomic Overview - Trump's high tariff policy is causing turmoil in the international economy and financial markets, with the IMF predicting a slowdown in global economic output as a result [1] - Finance ministers from multiple countries are negotiating with the Trump administration to lower tariffs, with 18 countries already proposing solutions and discussions planned with officials from 34 countries [1] - Morgan Stanley's Bessent believes that while trade tensions among major powers may ease, negotiations with Asian countries will be challenging [1] - The U.S. stock market surged following the announcement that the tariff deadlock is unsustainable, leading to a stronger dollar and reduced demand for gold, which has seen a 29% increase this year [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices could exceed $4000 next year due to recession risks, tariff hikes, and trade tensions [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring Federal Reserve officials' speeches for monetary policy clues, as well as the April manufacturing PMI preliminary values from the Eurozone and the U.S. [1] - The geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine remains uncertain, with Putin proposing a ceasefire and the UK Foreign Secretary advocating for peace [1] Gold Market Analysis - On Tuesday, gold prices experienced a decline, reaching a high of 3499.91 and a low of 3366.71, closing at 3380.85 [2] - The price initially continued to rise but faced pressure during the European trading session and weakened further in the U.S. session, breaking through key support levels [2] - Monthly analysis indicates that after three months of increases, a correction occurred, and a similar pattern is observed with four months of increases followed by a correction in April [2] - The weekly analysis shows that gold prices are supported at the 3006 level, while the daily analysis indicates support at 3206 [2] - Short-term analysis reveals that the price has broken through the four-hour support level, which has now turned into resistance, with the new resistance range identified at 3414-3415 [2] Key Economic Data and Events - Upcoming events include the G20 finance and central bank ministers' meeting, various manufacturing PMI preliminary values from France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as speeches from Federal Reserve officials [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market shows mixed trends, with the real - estate chain being active and some sectors affected by policies and international news [2][3]. - The bond market is in a state of waiting for direction, with potential for a rebound after short - term adjustments [7]. - The precious metals market has seen a decline due to factors such as the European Central Bank's interest rate cut, but gold still has upward potential in the long - term [8][9]. - The shipping index market is in a state of shock, with suggestions to consider widening the spread between different contracts [12][13]. - The non - ferrous metals market presents different trends for each metal, with factors such as supply, demand, and tariffs influencing prices [20][22][23]. - The black metals market shows that steel production has peaked, and the iron ore market is in a state of shock [36][38][40]. - The agricultural products market has different situations for each product, such as the pressure on soybean meal prices and the shock of corn prices [53][55][60]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, A - share major indices mostly rose, with the real - estate chain being active. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and all had basis discounts. The market is affected by domestic and overseas news, and it is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields generally rose. It is expected that the bond market will have the potential to stabilize and rebound after short - term adjustments, and it is recommended to go long on dips and participate in basis and curve strategies [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell due to the European Central Bank's interest rate cut and reduced risk aversion. Gold has long - term upward drivers, and it is recommended to use high - throw and low - suck strategies in the short - term and sell out - of - the - money put options for profit protection [8][9]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index is in a state of shock. Spot supply and demand are still cold, and it is recommended to widen the spread between the August and June contracts and pay attention to the rebound opportunities of the June and August contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The price is affected by tariffs and fundamentals, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 76000 - 77000 pressure level [14][20]. - **Zinc**: There is still an expectation of loose supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 20500 - 21500 support level [20][22]. - **Tin**: With a weak macro - environment and gradually recovering supply, it is recommended to hold short positions and take a short - selling approach on rebounds [23][26]. - **Nickel**: After the implementation of the Indonesian policy, the market is in a state of shock. The cost has certain support, and the main contract is expected to operate between 120000 - 126000 [26][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is still macro - uncertainty, and the market is in a state of weak shock, with the main contract expected to operate between 12600 - 13000 [29][31]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market has digested the tariff news, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract referring to 6.8 - 7.2 million [32][35]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production has peaked, and the demand in the second quarter is expected to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the domestic loose policy and the spread between steel and ore [36][38]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron water output remains high, and the port inventory is decreasing. The market is expected to fluctuate, and the impact of terminal demand and exports needs to be observed [39][40]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal [41][43]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is stable, but there is still a risk of decline. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal [43][46]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the cost is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [47][48]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the mainstream steel procurement pricing, and the inventory pressure still exists. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [50][52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, and the US soybean lacks the driving force to rise. The operation should be cautious [53][55]. - **Pigs**: The secondary fattening transaction has declined, and the consumption support is insufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14000 - 14800 [56][57]. - **Corn**: The market trading is light, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term and strong in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [58][60]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock - weak pattern [61]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [63].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Prologis reported a core FFO of $1.42 per share, including net promotes, and $1.43 per share excluding net promotes, both exceeding forecasts [15] - Occupancy at the end of the quarter was 95.2%, a decrease of 70 basis points from year-end, attributed to strong retention [15] - Net effective rent change during the quarter was 54%, with cash basis at 32%, leading to same-store growth of 5.9% and 6.2% respectively [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company leased 58 million square feet, nearing record levels, and initiated approximately $650 million in new developments, with 80% in built-to-suit projects [10][17] - In the data center business, 400 megawatts of power moved to advanced stages, totaling 2 gigawatts in this category [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global rents declined by 1.5%, primarily driven by Southern California, while other markets remained flat or increased [88] - Net absorption for the quarter was 21 million square feet, down from 27 million a year ago, indicating a seasonal decline [144] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage its global footprint and diversified rent roll to navigate market disruptions and capitalize on emerging opportunities [12][14] - Prologis is focusing on markets where goods are consumed rather than produced, reinforcing its long-term strategy [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about potential recession and inflation, emphasizing the need for flexible inventory positioning among customers [12][30] - The company anticipates increased inventory levels as businesses stockpile, with e-commerce expected to gain more market share [30] Other Important Information - The company raised approximately $400 million in new capital for its flagship open-ended funds, with a similar amount in redemptions, resulting in a neutral capital raise [20] - Prologis received a credit rating upgrade to A2 from Moody's, making it one of only two public REITs with an A-flat rating from both agencies [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on customer interactions and demand - Management noted that consumption is closely tied to GDP growth, with a historical relationship of about 70% in the U.S. [44] Question: Clarification on leasing and occupancy - The occupancy drop was attributed to a high volume of leases rolling in the first quarter, with retention at 73% [51] Question: Impact of 3PLs on the Inland Empire West - The U.S. businesses of Asian 3PLs represent just over 1.5% of the rent roll, and these companies are adapting by diversifying their sources and growing domestic footprints [57] Question: Amazon's market presence - Prologis has signed significant deals with Amazon, with the e-commerce segment showing strong leasing activity [65] Question: Opportunities in the current environment - Management indicated that it is too early to identify specific opportunities, as the market is currently in a wait-and-see mode [69] Question: Demand for smaller spaces - Smaller spaces typically have lower occupancy due to shorter lease terms and are more affected by economic downturns [120][124] Question: Expectations for cash same-store NOI - The strong 6.2% cash same-store NOI in Q1 was influenced by occupancy changes and is expected to be volatile throughout the year [129] Question: Timing of lease commitments - New lease commencements can occur rapidly, while renewals may take longer, depending on the lease size [136]

据路透调查：29位经济学家中有18位表示，加拿大央行将于4月16日将隔夜利率维持在2.75%，11位经 济学家称将降息25个基点。29位经济学家中有15位表示，加拿大央行将在第三季度前把隔夜利率下调50 个基点。15位经济学家中有14位表示加拿大面临较高的经济衰退风险，1位经济学家表示风险较低。 ...