Core Viewpoint - International gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with gold at $4,412.62 per ounce, marking a 68% increase for the year, while silver has risen over 139% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices hit a daily high of $4,420.47 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 1.33% [1] - Silver prices reached 69.44 yuan per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.47% [1] - The domestic precious metals index in the A-share market has shown strong performance, with several companies experiencing significant stock price increases, including Baiyin Nonferrous and Hunan Mining, which both hit the daily limit [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include Xiaocheng Technology and Hunan Silver, both rising over 7%, and Guiyan Platinum Industry increasing over 6% [1] - Other companies such as Western Gold, Shengda Resources, and Shandong Gold also saw gains exceeding 5% [1] - In the Hong Kong market, WanGuo Gold Group rose by 10.96%, while China Gold International and China Silver Group increased by 7.59% and 5.80%, respectively [2][3] Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to several factors, including the inverse relationship between gold and the US dollar, with the dollar currently in a depreciation cycle [4] - Expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve contribute to gold's attractiveness as a non-yielding asset [5] - Concerns over inflation and fiscal imbalances globally enhance gold's role as a hedge against inflation [5] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, further drive demand for gold as a risk hedge [5]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 贵金属年末掀涨势，12月18日"铂族兄弟"——铂金、钯金联袂攀新高。 截至12月18日17：30，今年铂金涨幅达117%，最高价触及1995.6美元/盎司，涨幅仅次于白银；"好兄 弟"钯金涨幅达95%，最高价触及1787美元/盎司。 业内人士指出，在现货供应持续偏紧、资金情绪共振等多重因素推动下，贵金属市场的上涨逻辑正在不 断强化。不过，对于铂金、钯金明年的表现，市场判断不一，有分析认为其短线"步子过大"，存在炒作 迹象，明年或面临回调压力。 钯金多合约涨停 12月18日，国内铂族金属市场再度爆发。广期所铂期货主力合约全天呈现单边上行态势，全天呈现强 势，多个合约尾盘强势封板。钯金是当天的主角，其中钯2606、2608和2610涨停，主力合约钯2606报收 476.6元/克；当天铂金虽然没有涨停，但是也维持在高位，铂2606盘中触及549.9元/克，收盘涨5.32%， 报收542.6元/克，两个品种当日再度创新历史新高，成交量也出现明显放大。 国信期货指出，铂、钯期货双双大涨，呈现出资金推动与情绪共振的显著特征。本轮上涨主要由现货市 场供应紧张 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance in 2023, with the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index rising by 75.82%, driven primarily by industrial metals like copper, gold, and lead-zinc [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index has increased by 75.82% year-to-date, ranking it among the top sectors in the Shenwan industry index [2]. - Within the sector, industrial metals have led the gains, with the Shenwan Copper Index up by 100.57%, Shenwan Gold Index up by 79.17%, Shenwan Lead-Zinc Index up by 75.06%, and Shenwan Aluminum Index up by 51.75% [2]. - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut of 25 basis points on December 11, related ETFs have seen significant net inflows, with the Southern Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals ETF receiving a net inflow of 468 million yuan in the week leading up to December 15 [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by loose liquidity and geopolitical tensions, has positively impacted non-ferrous metal prices [3]. - Industrial metal inventories are at historical lows, with global refined copper stocks at 1,451 thousand tons as of November 30, the lowest in nearly 35 years [3]. - The aluminum production capacity utilization is nearing its maximum, with mainstream electrolytic aluminum inventories at 584 thousand tons, also at historically low levels [3]. Group 3: Future Demand Trends - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to grow significantly due to the green transition, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and AI infrastructure [4]. - By the third quarter of 2025, copper demand from electric vehicles and charging stations is projected to increase, with a year-on-year growth of 8% in apparent copper consumption in China [4]. - The trend of "using aluminum instead of copper" is accelerating, with ongoing demand in air conditioning heat exchangers and battery trays for electric vehicles [4]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Despite a recent decline of 2.63% in the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index, institutions maintain a positive long-term outlook for the sector under the premise of macroeconomic easing [5]. - The focus is on the "three safe-haven metals": copper, aluminum, and gold, with copper expected to face supply-demand tightness by 2026 due to reduced production forecasts from leading copper mining companies [6]. - Investment strategies suggest prioritizing leading companies with core mining rights and those with deep processing capabilities, emphasizing the dual themes of supply rigidity and green premium [6].

● 本报记者 葛瑶 今年以来，有色金属板块表现亮眼，中证申万有色金属指数累计上涨75.82%，位居申万一级行业涨幅 榜前列。其中，铜、黄金、铅锌等细分品种涨幅居前，工业金属成为板块上涨主要驱动力。 机构人士认为，在全球宏观流动性宽松的背景下，有色金属凭借供需刚性、避险属性及绿色转型需求， 中长期配置价值凸显，尤其看好铜、铝、黄金"避险三剑客"，优先布局拥有核心矿权的龙头企业，重点 关注具备深加工能力的标的。 有色金属板块领跑A股 Wind数据显示，截至12月16日，中证申万有色金属指数今年以来累计上涨75.82%，位居申万一级行业 涨幅榜前列。 细分来看，有色金属板块内部呈现结构性行情，工业金属品种领涨，成为板块上涨的主要驱动力。申万 铜指数今年以来累计涨幅达100.57%，位居板块内首位；申万黄金指数累计涨幅为79.17%；申万铅锌指 数累计涨幅为75.06%；申万铝指数累计涨幅为51.75%。 资金面上，市场情绪持续高涨。12月11日美联储如期降息25个基点后，有色金属相关ETF连续多日迎来 资金净流入。截至12月15日，南方中证申万有色金属ETF近一周获净流入4.68亿元，万家中证工业有色 金属主题ET ...

瑞郎避险属性叠加全球风险情绪升温，吸引避险资金流入支撑其升值。美国下调瑞士商品关税缓解瑞士 出口压力，弱化市场对瑞央行降息预期；但瑞郎过度升值或引通缩，瑞央行在抑制本币升值与规避"汇 率操纵国"标签间面临两难，未来不排除外汇干预可能。 技术面呈空头主导格局，汇价运行于关键均线下方，反弹乏力，空头动能未完全释放，整体弱势明显， 为进一步下探提供空间。 机构预测短期美元兑瑞郎波动区间0.7920-0.7980，下方支撑关注0.7915，上方阻力在0.7980及0.8000关 口。后续需关注美联储官员讲话、瑞士核心通胀、地缘风险等变量；中长期走势取决于美瑞政策分化持 续性、全球风险情绪及瑞士经济复苏，波动或加剧，投资者需警惕相关风险。 12月16日，美元兑瑞郎汇率报0.7956，维持在11月中旬以来的低位区间波动。从近期走势来看，汇价延 续下行态势，9月中旬曾跌至0.7915的阶段性低点，今年以来累计跌幅显著，瑞郎兑美元更是一度攀升 至近十年高位，背后核心逻辑在于瑞郎避险属性的持续凸显与美瑞两国货币政策分化的深度演绎。 美瑞央行政策分化是汇价波动核心。12月"超级央行周"，瑞士央行维持0%利率不变，表态或干预汇 市 ...

来源：证券时报 证券时报记者 赵黎昀 继黄金、白银价格大幅拉涨后，有色商品的大涨"接力棒"传递到了铂、钯。12月15日，国内期货市场 铂、钯主力合约领涨。铂2606合约盘中触及涨停，截至下午收盘，铂2606报涨7%；钯2606报涨4.73%。 第二波上涨发生于8月末到10月中旬。其间，美联储开启本年度降息进程、俄乌对立升级、美国政府因 预算法案难产而停摆，流动性宽松预期压制了贵金属的持有成本，而地缘风险和金融市场的波动激发了 铂金的避险属性。 近一个月来，铂金属开启了年内第三轮上涨。黄加奇分析，本轮铂主要的上涨驱动力有三个：一是，作 为全球最大铂金消费市场的中国，铂钯期货期权完成了注册上市，为企业提供了新的投资和套保工具， 进而提供强劲的需求面利好；二是，欧洲放宽燃油车2035禁令，引发市场对于后续催化剂技术路线调整 节奏的讨论，汽车行业需求对铂金仍存支撑；三是，"十五五"发展规划提出氢能为"关键棋子"，或开启 新一轮的能源革新，而铂金作为氢燃料催化的首选催化剂，其利用价值更加凸显。 避险驱动 "当前市场主要是避险买盘驱动贵金属价格上涨，例如黄金价格上涨带来的外溢效应。市场目前担忧美 国科技股泡沫破灭，且美联 ...

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 思哲与创富 来源：雪球 以下文章来源于思哲与创富 ，作者思哲 思哲与创富 . 全天候-永久投资策略投顾主理人，全球资产配置，为你做好家庭投资框架，穿越牛熊 但现在呢 ？ 金银比已经回落到了 68 ， 人话解释就是 ： 肉已经吃得差不多了 ， 剩下的只有骨头 。 作为左侧投资者 ， 金银比在80以上时 ， 用白银替换黄金是 " 高赔率 " 博弈 ； 但在68这个位置 ， 且黄金本身已经大涨的背景下 ， 再去追白银 ， 那是 " 低赔率+高波动 " 的无脑冲锋 。 二 、 被证伪的 " 工业叙事 " 这时或许很多人会搬出 " 工业属性 " 来辩护 ： " 新能源 、 AI都需要白银啊 ， 是工业需求驱动的牛市 ！ " 之前临时提了嘴，说白银这几天疯涨，白银期权隐含波动率飙到了40的高位。 这种单边上行且伴随极高波动率的行情 ， 再加上白银LOF狂飙 ， 吸引了大量散户进场申购套利 ， 说实话 ， 让我感觉 商品散户化的味道有点浓 了 。 如果你手里持有多头 ， 现在可能不是庆祝的时候 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high-level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.21%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 3.07%, Platinum's main contract closed down 0.48%, and Palladium's main contract closed down 0.68% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war related hedging has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, leading to a slowdown in interest - rate cut expectations [1] - The Fed cut the interest rate with internal differences, hinting at a pause in action and possibly only one rate cut next year. The current market expects the probability of no rate cut in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next possible rate cut may be in April [1] - Precious metals are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, highly volatile in the medium - term, and to rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5] Summary by Directory 1. Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4258.30 per ounce, up 0.51% from the previous day and 0.55% from last week. London gold was at $4200.15 per ounce, up 0.05% from the previous day and down 0.24% from last week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 957.90 yuan per gram, up 0.16% from the previous day and 0.47% from last week [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold's position was 459,997 lots (100 ounces per lot), Shanghai Gold's main contract position decreased by 0.25% from the previous day and 2.76% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8598 tons with no change, Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from last week [2] - **Investment Strategy**: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] 2. Silver - **Price Performance**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $62.20 per ounce, up 1.70% from the previous day and 5.55% from last week. London silver was at $61.04 per ounce, up 4.10% from the previous day and 4.57% from last week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 14,488 yuan per kilogram, up 0.80% from the previous day and 7.93% from last week [6] - **Position and Inventory**: LBMA silver inventory increased by 10.60% from last week, Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.07% from last week, and Shanghai Silver's inventory increased by 19.34% from last week [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] 3. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, all decreased by 0.25% compared to before. The Fed's total assets are $6586.185 billion, down $164.12 billion from before [8] - **Inflation Data**: The year - on - year CPI is 3.00%, the month - on - month CPI is 0.30%, the year - on - year core CPI is 3.00%, and the month - on - month core CPI is 0.30% [10] - **Economic Growth Data**: The annualized year - on - year GDP is 2.00%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP is 3.80% [10] - **Employment Data**: The unemployment rate is 4.40%, and the monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 11.90 million [10] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index is 123.60, down 22.89% from before; the VIX index is 15.77, down 6.85% from the previous day and 1.93% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 301.38, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.84% from last week [11] 4. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the 350 - 375 range in January 2026 is 77.9%. The probability distribution of interest - rate ranges changes over different meeting dates from 2026 to 2027 [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high - level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 5.44%, platinum's main contract closed up 1.08%, and palladium's main contract closed up 1.08% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war - related避险 has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US job market is weakening, inflation is moderate, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates has increased. The US economic activity has changed little, but the government shutdown has suppressed demand in many places. The market is waiting for more economic data. Currently, the market expects an 80%+ probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in December [1] - It is expected that in the short - term, gold will be weak and silver strong, platinum will be strong and palladium weak. In the medium - term, they will fluctuate at high levels, and in the long - term, they will rise step - by - step [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and the iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly increased [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Market Performance - Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.26%, Comex gold's main contract closed at $4236.60 per ounce, up 0.40% from the previous day, and London gold closed at $4198.00 per ounce, up 0.23% from the previous day [1][2] - The closing price of Shanghai Gold's main contract (SHFE) was 956.40 yuan per gram, up 0.51% from the previous day [2] Core Logic - Short - term: Trade - war - related避险 has subsided, geopolitical risks remain, US employment is weakening, inflation is moderate, and interest - rate - cut expectations remain [1] - 避险 attribute: There are discussions about ending the Ukraine war, and there are still geopolitical risks in the Middle East [1] - Monetary attribute: The possibility of Fed rate cuts has increased, the US economic activity has changed little, and the market is waiting for more economic data [1] - Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index fluctuates weakly, the RMB appreciation is negative for domestic prices. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen - energy industry, and palladium faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market [1] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [3] Silver Market Performance - Comex silver's main contract closed at $61.16 per ounce, up 4.55% from the previous day, and London silver closed at $58.63 per ounce, up 0.44% from the previous day [8] - The closing price of Shanghai Silver's main contract (SHFE) was 14373.00 yuan per kilogram, up 5.63% from the previous day [8] Strategy - Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [8] Fundamental Key Data Monetary Attribute - Federal funds target rate upper limit: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; discount rate: 4.00%, down 0.25% from the previous value; reserve balance rate (IORB): 3.90%, down 0.25% from the previous value [10] - The Fed's total assets were $65861.85 billion, down 0.00% from the previous value [10] - M2 (year - on - year): 4.65%, up 0.22% from the previous value; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 2.51, up 0.80% from the previous day, up 2.03% from the previous week [10] - US Treasury spreads, inflation data, economic growth data, labor market data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data are also provided [12] 避险 Attribute - Geopolitical risk index: 123.60, up 14.93% from the previous day, down 27.38% from the previous week; VIX index: 16.93, up 1.62% from the previous day, up 2.05% from the previous week [13] Commodity Attribute - CRB commodity index: 299.63, down 0.61% from the previous day, down 0.87% from the previous week; offshore RMB: 7.0685, up 0.10% from the previous week [13] Fed's Interest Rate Expectation - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate changes from December 10, 2025, to October 27, 2027, are presented [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the silver market is experiencing a significant upward trend due to low global inventory and high demand, indicating a shift in perception where silver is no longer seen merely as a subordinate to gold [2] - The global silver market is projected to face a structural supply gap of approximately 95 million ounces by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [2] - Silver's applications in key industrial sectors such as electronics, renewable energy, and healthcare are driving demand, particularly in photovoltaic, electric vehicles, AI servers, and data centers [2] Group 2 - London silver has been trading within a narrow range of $56.19 to $59.34 for six consecutive sessions, indicating a period of consolidation following a strong upward movement [3] - The price has shown resilience by maintaining above the 10-day moving average, which has not been breached for two weeks, suggesting a healthy digestion of previous gains [3] - A successful test of the rising 10-day moving average and a breakout above the key resistance zone of $59.89–$60.20 could initiate a new upward phase targeting above $63 [3]